Indonesia has achieved strong GDP growth through robust infrastructure development and governance. Electricity demand is expected to nearly double by 2021 due to economic expansion. The government aims to increase electrification nationwide and coal's share in the energy mix to capitalize on domestic coal reserves. New regulations encourage private sector participation in generation to meet rising demand and close supply gaps between regions such as Java-Bali and outer islands.

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2. PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY
Glossary
Some abbreviations used
Abbreviations Full form
IPP Independent Power Project
GOI Government of Indonesia
EPC Engineering, Procurement and
Construction
Law 30 Electricity Law no. 30 of 2009
MEMR Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources
MW Megawatt
GW Gigawatt
TW Terawatt
TWh Terawatt Hour
MWh Megawatts Hour
kWh Kilowatts Hour
GDP Gross Domestic Product
FTP Fast Track Programme
USD United States Dollar
Abbreviations Full form
Bn Billion
Mn Million
IMF International Monetary Fund
CAGR Compounded Annual Growth Rate
PLN PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero)
PPU Private Power Utility
SOE State-owned Enterprises
CFPP Coal Fired Power Plant
PPP Public Private Partnership
DMO Domestic Obligation
MVA Mega Volt Ampere
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Indonesia - Macro economic indicators
• Being the most populous country in South Asia ,
Indonesia is also fourth populous country in world
(after China, India and United States)
• Indonesia is also world's largest exporter of coal by
weight and the eighth largest exporter of natural
gas in 2011
• According to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), Indonesia was able to sustain relatively very
good GDP growth rate 6 percent per annum in
spite of economic slowdown
• Currently Indonesia’s GDP in 2012 is around USD
899 bn which has almost doubled from USD 432 bn
in 2007
• The total electricity consumption per capita of
Indonesia is very low at 0.6 MWh as in compared to
its counterparts such as China (3 MWh), Japan (8
MWh) and Taiwan (10.7 MWh)
• Indonesia has power installed capacity of around 43
GW in 2012 where Coal alone has share of more
than half in the energy mix
• Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR)
is apex policy making body which is responsible for
developing electricity master plan, laws and
regulations
Indonesia’s robust infrastructure and strong governance has led it to achieve GDP growth rate of 6.2 % in year 2012-2013
Source:- World Bank, IMF, EIA , Future Outlook PLN’s Coal Fired Power Plant By Helmi Najamuddin
432 510 539
708
846 899
1,859
2,172 2,273
2,952
3,495 3,617
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
GDP (USD Bn) GDP per capita
10.7
9.7
8.5
8
5.9
3.7
3
2.2
1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Per capita electricity consumption
World wise per capita electricity consumption in MWh
Indonesia’s total GDP in USD bn
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Electricity consumption and generation
• Total electricity production has seen a CAGR of 6% whereas electricity consumption has seen a CAGR of 5.5 %
• State owned PLN owns and operates about 85 percent of the country's generating capacity through its subsidiaries,
and maintains an effective monopoly over distribution activities. Although the most recent 2009 Electricity Law
ends PLN's distribution monopoly, there is a lack of sufficient regulations to enforce this law
• Indonesia has installed capacity of 43.6 GW of which PLN controls about 73% (31,944 MW), IPP 23% (9,856 MW)
and PPU 4% (1,729 MW) respectively
Generation capacity growth in Indonesia has lagged behind the pace of electricity demand growth, leading to power
shortages and a low electrification ratio
118 126 134 141
153 161
170
515 546
572
597
641
666
695
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Electric power consumption (TWh)
Per capita electricity consumption (kWh)
133 142 149 156
169 176 183
579
612 636
660
708
740
778
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Electricity production (TWh)
Per capita electricity production (kWh)
Source:- World Bank, Future Outlook PLN’s Coal Fired Power Plant By Helmi Najamuddin
Total electricity production Total electricity consumption
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Expected growth in electricity consumption (10 year forecast)
• Indonesia’s demand for electricity will see a CAGR of 9% year on year basis. The expected demand would be 389
Terawatts Hour (TWh) in 2021 which is almost double of 194 TWh in 2013
• Java-Bali itself has been prominent in contributing to huge demand for electricity by maintaining a share of about
75% throughout in the past and will behaving same share in future as well. Remaining regions contribute just
about 25% to total electricity demand
• In order to lower the demand of electricity consumption, Indonesia’s only state owned power company PLN has
planed to have 100% solar energy based electricity generation at 100 small islands till 2014
• The expected electricity generation would be around 118,616 kW which would be generated at West Indonesia
(61,285 kW), East Indonesia (50,507 kW) and Java Bali (6, 284 kW) at 358, 293 and 21 locations respectively
Like other nations, Indonesia is also looking at renewable sources of energy in future
Region wise electricity power demand in TWh
125
150
179
213
253
29438
44
55
68
82
95
161
194
234
281
334
389
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Outside Java-bali
Java-Bali
Expected total electricity
consumption (TWh)
Source:- Future Outlook PLN’s Coal Fired Power Plant By Helmi Najamuddin
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Power demand and supply gap in different regions
• Indonesia has achieved its goal of having installed capacity of 43.6 GW in the year 2012. Its peak load has remained
almost same at an average of 23 GW per year.
• In order to find a equilibrium between supply and demand, In 2006 GOI introduced the first phase of the Fast Track
Programme (FTP) to add 10,000 MW of generating capacity from new coal-fired power plants. The programme
consists of ten projects, with a total of 7,460 MW, in Java, and another 23 projects with a total of 2,513 MW outside
Java Island. GOI also has started implementation of its second phase of FTP in which addition of 10,000 MW more
• Some other projects includes building two gas fired plants in South Sumatra, consisting of plants at Prabumulih (200
MW) and Musi Rawas (400 MW), bidding on a USD 1 bn expansion of the Muara Tawar power project in Bekasi,
West Java, in the near future
In order to maintain a equilibrium between supply and demand , many new projects and initiatives have been taken
Source: Rukn Indonesia_demand_report 2012-2021, Norton Rose- Indonesian Energy Report
31.6 24
1
32.6
11.9
9
0.4
12.34
43.6
33
1.4
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Installed base capacity Peak load Additional power On going capacity plan for 2013
Java Bali Out of Java Bali
Power demand and supply gap in 2012 (Giga Watts - GW)
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21,547 22,834
31,592
42,820
51,530
61,690
4,986
5,284
7,310
9,908
11,923
14,274
1,250
1,325
1,833
2,484
2,990
3,579
1,209
1,281
1,773
2,403
2,892
3,462
330
350
484
656
789
945
29,688
31,462
43,529
59,000
71,000
85,000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2006 2008 2012 2016 2018 2020
Jamali Sumatera Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Papua Nusa Tenggara Total
Installed power generation capacity by region - historical and forecast
Both Jamali and Sumatera have been contributing almost 89% to the nation’s overall installed capacity throughout years
Source:- Rukn Indonesia_demand_report 2012-2021
Installed power generation capacity by region – historical and forecast (MW)
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Share of coal in energy mix-5 year mix
• Indonesia has been the largest exporter of thermal coal, typically used in power plants, for several years. In 2011,
it overtook Australia as the world's largest exporter of coal by weight
• Unlike many other countries, Indonesia's government encourages increased use of coal in the power sector, due
to relatively abundant domestic supply and as a way to reduce the use of expensive diesel and fuel oil. Although
coal consumption has grown significantly in the last decade, the majority of production has gone toward exports
• In order to guarantee sufficient domestic supply, the Indonesian government set a 24% domestic market
obligation for producers, which it revised down to 20% in October 2012 due to lower than expected consumption
Over the past years in Indonesia, share of coal in energy mix has reduced, thereby increasing its dependence on other
resources
Source: World bank, EIA
58 63 61 65 68 79 93
44% 44% 41%
41% 40%
45%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Electricity production from coal sources (TWh)
Electricity production from coal sources (% of total)
257 274
247
321
358
414
455
24
60 55 63 63 73
91
201
214 220
257
294
341
379
122
75 123 76 61 61 530
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
Coal production (Mn Tons) Coal consumption (Mn Tons)
Coal exports (Mn tons) Coal imports (thousand tons)
Coal’s share in energy production Total coal production and consumption
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Competitors overview and profile - 1
PT PLN (PERSERO) is the only 100% state-owned power utility company in Indonesia
Source: Future Outlook PLN’s Coal Fired Power Plant By Helmi Najamuddin, Company Website
PT PLN (Persero)
PT PLN Tarakan
Regional Fully
Integrated Electric Utility
PT Pembangkitan Jawa
Bali
Electricity Generation
PT PLN Batam
Regional Fully
Integrated Electric Utility
PT Indonesia Power
Electricity Generation
PT PLN Geothermal
Geothermal Energy
Generation
PT Pelayaran
Bahtera Adhiguna
Coal Shipping Activities
PT PLN Batubara
Coal Supplier for PLN
PT Prima Layanan
Nasional Enjiniring
Engineering and
Construction Services
PT Indonesia Comnets
Plus
Telecommunications for
the Electricity Sector
Majapahit Holding B.V.
Financial Institution
Note:- Excludes Joint Ventures
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10. PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY
Competitors overview and profile - 2
• PT PLN Persero (PLN) is Indonesia’s state-owned electric utility company, wholly-owned by the Government of
Indonesia and is represented by the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
• —PLN is the major provider of public electricity and electricity infrastructure in Indonesia, including power
generation, transmission, distribution and retail sales of electricity
• Under the New Electricity Law (No. 30/2009), SOEs, which includes PLN, have the first priority to decide whether
to be the electricity supplier for the public needs of a specified area before such right can be awarded to anyone
else
o If PLN declines to undertake a public electricity supply business for a certain area, the Government or regional
governments may offer this right to regional-owned companies, private enterprises or cooperatives
o If there are no regional-owned companies, private enterprises or cooperatives that elect to supply electricity in
that area, the Government is obligated to instruct SOEs (which includes PLN) to supply electricity to the area
Introduction and key business segments
Generation
• Controls approximately 28,308 MW
of installed generating capacity,
over 85% of Indonesia’s total
• Owns and operates 1,261
generation plants
• Main purchaser of electricity from
Independent Power Producers
(IPPs)
Transmission
• Sole provider of power transmission
in Indonesia
• Approximately 36,741 kmc of
transmission lines
• 66,354 MVA of transmission
transformer capacity
Distribution
• Sole distributor of electricity to end
customers in Indonesia
• Approximately 685,785 kmc of
distribution lines and 36,430 MVA
of transformer capacity
• Serving approximately 44 mn
customers
Key business segments
Source: Future Outlook PLN’s Coal Fired Power Plant By Helmi Najamuddin, Company Website
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Key regulations and initiatives by governments
• Indonesia has been aggressive in its quest for increasing the penetration of electricity in its region. Currently,
Electrification ratio (area having access to electricity to total area of Indonesia) is 75.3%. Due to its continuous
efforts in rural electricity programing, Government plans to achieve 99.2% electrification by year 2020
• Due to lack of substantial budget, still there are areas which does not have access to electricity particularly
outside Java-Bali region
• Based on PLN’s Electricity Business Plan (RUPTL PLN) 2011 - 2020, the growth rate of demand for electricity would
be around 8.5%. GOI also plans to increase its dependence on Coal generation as being largest exporter of it,
there by reducing demand for Oil fuels in future
• Under the Government's domestic obligation (DMO) program, larger coal companies in Indonesia must sell
approximately 25 percent of their production domestically. Around 70 % of DMO coal goes to power plants
operated by the country's state electricity company, PLN
Indonesia’s government plans to increase coal’s share in its energy mix in future
Source: EIA, Future Outlook Pln’s Coal Fired Power Plant By Helmi Najamuddin, Rukn Indonesia Demand Report 2012-2021
75.3
86.37
99.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2016 2020
Electrification ratio
Electrification ratio
62.80%
18.80%
0.80% 11.00%
6.50%
0.10%
2021
Coal
Gas
Oil fuel
Geothermal
Water
Others
51.08%
22.60%
15.01%
4.75%
6.44% 0.12%
2012
Primary energy mix - current and future forecast
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Conclusion
• Indonesia’s electricity demand is still high thus there is need of huge additional capacity of generation,
transmission and distribution
• The government encourages participation of private sector to cooperate with PLN through EPC project, IPP
project and PPP (Public Private Partnership) projects
• The government is committed to maintain the PLN’s financial viability in order to meet its obligations to other
parties, by providing subsidies
• For the next 10 years, the electricity supply in Indonesia is still relying on CFPP (Coal fired power plant), it is
because the availability of abundant coal as primary energy and cost of production is relatively cheap compared
to other power generation, but still abiding environmental laws
• The government passed the 2009 Law on Mineral and Coal Mining No.4 to increase foreign investment into the
mining sector. The law introduces more transparent and standardized tenders and licenses for mining blocks. As
of 2012, the law is not fully implemented, though there has been some increase in investment levels since 2009
• Indonesia passed a new law for the electricity sector in September 2009, Law No. 30 of 2009,(Law 30). Law 30
introduces three key reforms:
1. PLN will no longer have a monopoly in supply and distribution of electricity to consumers
2. Private businesses may provide electricity for public use, but subject to a “right of first priority” granted to
state-owned companies (ie, PLN)
3. A greater role for provincial and regional governments in terms of support for future projects, licence
granting and tariff fixing
• This will generate avenues for private players to actively involve in PLN's IPP program for the 10 year period as it
gives developers and lenders guidance as to what private sector IPP projects will be tendered out by PLN over the
coming years
There is immense opportunity for private players to grow along with support of state owned PLN through IPP and PPP
projects etc.
Source: EIA, Future Outlook Pln’s Coal Fired Power Plant By Helmi Najamuddin, Rukn Indonesia Demand Report 2012-2021
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Report prepared by
Name:- Suparn kumar kuer
Email id:- suparn1988@yahoo.co.in
Contact no:- +91 9869712408
Thanks
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