1. Student: Z. Faramarzi, MA
Zarghamfaramarzi@gmail.com
In the name of God
Department of Education
Faculty of Education and Psychology
University of Shahid Chamran Ahwaz
Course Title: Human Resource Management
Instructor: Y. Mehralizadeh, Ph.D.
Mehralizadeh_y@scu.ac.ir
3. The general who wins a battle makes many
calculations in his temple before the battle.
The general who loses a battle makes few
calculations before the battle.
It is by attention to this point that I can see who is
likely to win or lose.
Importance of Planning
4. What is manpower planning?
Manpower Planning which is also called as Human
Resource Planning consists of putting right number of
people, right kind of people at the right place, right time,
doing the right things for which they are suited for the
achievement of goals of the organization.
5. Importance of Manpower Planning
Manpower planning is a very important part of the overall planning of
a business organization. It is obvious that a business cannot
prosper unless the right number of employees, having required
skills, talents & qualifications is available at right time.
Manpower planning is done to fulfill the two main objectives, namely:
(1) To utilize the present employees fully.
(2) To fill up future manpower requirements.
6. 1.Key to managerial functions- The four managerial functions, i.e., planning, organizing, directing
and controlling are based upon the manpower. Human resources help in the implementation of all these
managerial activities. Therefore, staffing becomes a key to all managerial functions.
2.Efficient utilization- Efficient management of personnel's becomes an important function in the
industrialization world of today. Setting of large scale enterprises require management of large scale
manpower. It can be effectively done through staffing function.
3.Motivation- Staffing function not only includes putting right men on right job, but it also comprises of
motivational programmer, i.e., incentive plans to be framed for further participation and employment of
employees in a concern. Therefore, all types of incentive plans becomes an integral part of staffing
function.
4.Better human relations- A concern can stabilize itself if human relations develop and are strong.
Human relations become strong trough effective control, clear communication, effective supervision and
leadership in a concern. Staffing function also looks after training and development of the work force
which leads to co-operation and better human relations.
5.Higher productivity- Productivity level increases when resources are utilized in best possible
manner. higher productivity is a result of minimum wastage of time, money, efforts and energies. This is
possible through the staffing and it's related activities ( Performance appraisal, training and
development, remuneration)
Importance of Manpower Planning View from education administration
7. Types of Manpower planning
Types of manpower planning can be distinguished:
1. On the basis of the level at which it is done.
2. On the basis of the period for which it is done.
Manpower Planning
On the basis of level On period basis
Macro-level
(national level)
Micro-level
(Industrial
Unit level)
Short
period
Medium
period
Long
period
8. Manpower Planning
In developing country like Iran, manpower planning is absolutely essential. Manpower
planning is done on the national level as a part of the planning for overall economical
development of the country. The objective is to provide more & more opportunities of
employment, while utilizing the human resource of the nation most efficient. In Iran
manpower planning is a part of overall planning & so its responsibilities lie with planning
commission.
Manpower planning at the organizational level is also important, because it decides the
various measures to be taken such as recruitment, selection, promotion, transfer etc. by
an industrial unit.
9. Manpower Forecasting
Manpower forecasting is assessing the anticipated increased
manpower demands in an organization over a specific period .
Manpower forecasting is concerned with the projection of future
manpower requirements both in their quantitative and qualitative
aspect as necessitated by any changes in technology, methods
of production, activities of the organization and thereby changes
in organization structure.
10.
11. Forecasting
• Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future. Victor
Borge
• I know of no way of judging of the future but by the past.
Patrick Henry
• Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and
following directions given by a person who is looking out
the back window. Anonymous
12. General Guiding Principles for
Forecasting
1. Forecasts are more accurate for larger groups of items.
2. Forecasts are more accurate for shorter periods of time.
3. Every forecast should include an estimate of error.
4. Before applying any forecasting method, the total system
should be understood.
5. Before applying any forecasting method, the method
should be tested and evaluated.
6. Be aware of people; they can prove you wrong very easily
in forecasting
14. Types of forecasting methods
Rely on data and
analytical techniques.
Rely on subjective
opinions from one or
more experts.
Qualitative methods Quantitative methods
15. Short-range forecast
Usually < 3 months
Job scheduling, worker assignments
Medium-range forecast
3 months to 2 years
Sales/production planning
Long-range forecast
> 2 years
New product planning
Types of Forecasts by Time Horizon
Design
of system
Detailed
use of
system
Quantitative
methods
Qualitative
Methods
18. Forecasting During the Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Sales
Time
Quantitative models
- Time series analysis
- Regression analysis
Qualitative models
- Executive judgment
- Market research
-Survey of sales force
-Delphi method
19.
20. Briefly, the qualitative methods are:
Executive Judgment: Opinion of a group of high level
experts or managers is pooled
Sales Force Composite: Each regional salesperson
provides his/her sales estimates. Those forecasts are
then reviewed to make sure they are realistic. All
regional forecasts are then pooled at the district and
national levels to obtain an overall forecast.
Market Research/Survey: Solicits input from
customers pertaining to their future purchasing
plans. It involves the use of questionnaires,
consumer panels and tests of new products and
services.
Qualitative Methods
21. Delphi Method: As opposed to regular panels where the individuals
involved are in direct communication, this method eliminates the
effects of group potential dominance of the most vocal members. The
group involves individuals from inside as well as outside the
organization.
Typically, the procedure consists of the following steps:
Each expert in the group makes his/her own forecasts in form of
statements
The coordinator collects all group statements and
summarizes them
The coordinator provides this summary and gives another set
of questions to each
group member including feedback as to the input of other
experts.
The above steps are repeated until a consensus is reached.
.
Qualitative Methods
24. Time Series Models
Try to predict the future based on past
data
Assume that factors influencing the past will
continue to influence the future
25. Product Demand over Time
Year
1
Year
2
Year
3
Year
4
Demand
for
product
or
service
26.
27. 1. Naive Approach
Demand in next period is the same as
demand in most recent period
May sales = 48 →
Usually not good
June forecast = 48
28. 2a. Simple Moving Average
n
A
+
...
+
A
+
A
+
A
=
F 1
n
-
t
2
-
t
1
-
t
t
1
t
Assumes an average is a good estimator of
future behavior
Used if little or no trend
Used for smoothing
Ft+1 = Forecast for the upcoming period, t+1
n = Number of periods to be averaged
A t = Actual occurrence in period t
29. 2a. Simple Moving Average
You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics
department. You want to forecast ipod sales for
months 4-6 using a 3-period moving average.
n
A
+
...
+
A
+
A
+
A
=
F 1
n
-
t
2
-
t
1
-
t
t
1
t
Month
Sales
(000)
1 4
2 6
3 5
4 ?
5 ?
6 ?
30. 2a. Simple Moving Average
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 ?
5 ?
(4+6+5)/3=5
6 ?
n
A
+
...
+
A
+
A
+
A
=
F 1
n
-
t
2
-
t
1
-
t
t
1
t
You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics
department. You want to forecast ipod sales for
months 4-6 using a 3-period moving average.
31. What if ipod sales were actually 3 in month 4
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 ?
5
6 ?
2a. Simple Moving Average
?
32. Forecast for Month 5?
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 ?
5
6 ?
(6+5+3)/3=4.667
2a. Simple Moving Average
33. Actual Demand for Month 5 = 7
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 7
5
6 ?
4.667
2a. Simple Moving Average
?
34. Forecast for Month 6?
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 7
5
6 ?
4.667
(5+3+7)/3=5
2a. Simple Moving Average
35. Gives more emphasis to recent data
Weights
decrease for older data
sum to 1.0
2b. Weighted Moving Average
1
n
-
t
n
2
-
t
3
1
-
t
2
t
1
1
t A
w
+
...
+
A
w
+
A
w
+
A
w
=
F
Simple moving
average models
weight all previous
periods equally
36. 2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6
Month Weighted
Moving
Average
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 31/6 = 5.167
5
6 ?
?
?
1
n
-
t
n
2
-
t
3
1
-
t
2
t
1
1
t A
w
+
...
+
A
w
+
A
w
+
A
w
=
F
Sales
(000)
38. 2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6
Month Sales
(000)
Weighted
Moving
Average
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3 31/6 = 5.167
5 7
6
25/6 = 4.167
32/6 = 5.333
1
n
-
t
n
2
-
t
3
1
-
t
2
t
1
1
t A
w
+
...
+
A
w
+
A
w
+
A
w
=
F
39. 3a. Exponential Smoothing
Assumes the most recent observations
have the highest predictive value
gives more weight to recent time periods
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
et
Ft+1 = Forecast value for time t+1
At = Actual value at time t
a = Smoothing constant
Need initial
forecast Ft
to start.
40. Time Series: Exponential Smoothing (ES)
Main idea: The prediction of the future depends mostly on the
most recent observation, and on the error for the latest forecast.
Smoothin
g
constant
alpha α
Denotes the importance
of the past error
41. Example: bottled water at Kroger
Month Actual Forecasted
Jan 1,325 1,370
Feb 1,353 1,361
Mar 1,305 1,359
Apr 1,275 1,349
May 1,210 1,334
Jun ? 1,309
a = 0.2
42. Example: bottled water at Kroger
a = 0.8
Month Actual Forecasted
Jan 1,325 1,370
Feb 1,353 1,334
Mar 1,305 1,349
Apr 1,275 1,314
May 1,210 1,283
Jun ? 1,225
44. Example: do people drink more when it’s cold?
Alcohol Sales
Average Monthly
Temperature
Which line best
fits the data?
45. Planning and Forecasting Forecasting
Methods
Quantitative Forecasting
4. Regression Analysis
This is an “Exploratory Forecasting Method”.
It develops “logical” relationships between variables.
Tries to minimize sum of the squares of the deviations.
Gives best fit for a line passing through the data.
46. Planning and Forecasting Forecasting
Methods
Quantitative Forecasting
4. Regression Analysis
2
2
)
(
)
(
)
(
i
i
i
i
i
i
x
x
n
y
x
y
x
n
b
x
b
y
a
