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Student: Z. Faramarzi, MA
Zarghamfaramarzi@gmail.com
In the name of God
Department of Education
Faculty of Education and Psychology
University of Shahid Chamran Ahwaz
Course Title: Human Resource Management
Instructor: Y. Mehralizadeh, Ph.D.
Mehralizadeh_y@scu.ac.ir
HRM Course timetable • Aims
The general who wins a battle makes many
calculations in his temple before the battle.
The general who loses a battle makes few
calculations before the battle.
It is by attention to this point that I can see who is
likely to win or lose.
Importance of Planning
What is manpower planning?
Manpower Planning which is also called as Human
Resource Planning consists of putting right number of
people, right kind of people at the right place, right time,
doing the right things for which they are suited for the
achievement of goals of the organization.
Importance of Manpower Planning
Manpower planning is a very important part of the overall planning of
a business organization. It is obvious that a business cannot
prosper unless the right number of employees, having required
skills, talents & qualifications is available at right time.
Manpower planning is done to fulfill the two main objectives, namely:
(1) To utilize the present employees fully.
(2) To fill up future manpower requirements.
1.Key to managerial functions- The four managerial functions, i.e., planning, organizing, directing
and controlling are based upon the manpower. Human resources help in the implementation of all these
managerial activities. Therefore, staffing becomes a key to all managerial functions.
2.Efficient utilization- Efficient management of personnel's becomes an important function in the
industrialization world of today. Setting of large scale enterprises require management of large scale
manpower. It can be effectively done through staffing function.
3.Motivation- Staffing function not only includes putting right men on right job, but it also comprises of
motivational programmer, i.e., incentive plans to be framed for further participation and employment of
employees in a concern. Therefore, all types of incentive plans becomes an integral part of staffing
function.
4.Better human relations- A concern can stabilize itself if human relations develop and are strong.
Human relations become strong trough effective control, clear communication, effective supervision and
leadership in a concern. Staffing function also looks after training and development of the work force
which leads to co-operation and better human relations.
5.Higher productivity- Productivity level increases when resources are utilized in best possible
manner. higher productivity is a result of minimum wastage of time, money, efforts and energies. This is
possible through the staffing and it's related activities ( Performance appraisal, training and
development, remuneration)
Importance of Manpower Planning View from education administration
Types of Manpower planning
Types of manpower planning can be distinguished:
1. On the basis of the level at which it is done.
2. On the basis of the period for which it is done.
Manpower Planning
On the basis of level On period basis
Macro-level
(national level)
Micro-level
(Industrial
Unit level)
Short
period
Medium
period
Long
period
Manpower Planning
In developing country like Iran, manpower planning is absolutely essential. Manpower
planning is done on the national level as a part of the planning for overall economical
development of the country. The objective is to provide more & more opportunities of
employment, while utilizing the human resource of the nation most efficient. In Iran
manpower planning is a part of overall planning & so its responsibilities lie with planning
commission.
Manpower planning at the organizational level is also important, because it decides the
various measures to be taken such as recruitment, selection, promotion, transfer etc. by
an industrial unit.
Manpower Forecasting
 Manpower forecasting is assessing the anticipated increased
manpower demands in an organization over a specific period .
 Manpower forecasting is concerned with the projection of future
manpower requirements both in their quantitative and qualitative
aspect as necessitated by any changes in technology, methods
of production, activities of the organization and thereby changes
in organization structure.
Forecasting
• Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future. Victor
Borge
• I know of no way of judging of the future but by the past.
Patrick Henry
• Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and
following directions given by a person who is looking out
the back window. Anonymous
General Guiding Principles for
Forecasting
1. Forecasts are more accurate for larger groups of items.
2. Forecasts are more accurate for shorter periods of time.
3. Every forecast should include an estimate of error.
4. Before applying any forecasting method, the total system
should be understood.
5. Before applying any forecasting method, the method
should be tested and evaluated.
6. Be aware of people; they can prove you wrong very easily
in forecasting
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 13
Seven Steps in Forecasting
 Determine the use of the forecast
 Select the items to be forecasted
 Determine the time horizon of the
forecast
 Select the forecasting model(s)
 Gather the data
 Make the forecast
 Validate and implement results
Types of forecasting methods
Rely on data and
analytical techniques.
Rely on subjective
opinions from one or
more experts.
Qualitative methods Quantitative methods
 Short-range forecast
 Usually < 3 months
 Job scheduling, worker assignments
 Medium-range forecast
 3 months to 2 years
 Sales/production planning
 Long-range forecast
 > 2 years
 New product planning
Types of Forecasts by Time Horizon
Design
of system
Detailed
use of
system
Quantitative
methods
Qualitative
Methods
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 16
Forecasting Approaches
 Used when situation is vague
and little data exist
 New products
 New technology
 Involves intuition, experience
 e.g., forecasting sales on Internet
Qualitative Methods
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 17
Forecasting Approaches
 Used when situation is ‘stable’ and
historical data exist
 Existing products
 Current technology
 Involves mathematical techniques
 e.g., forecasting sales of color
televisions
Quantitative Methods
Forecasting During the Life Cycle
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Sales
Time
Quantitative models
- Time series analysis
- Regression analysis
Qualitative models
- Executive judgment
- Market research
-Survey of sales force
-Delphi method
Briefly, the qualitative methods are:
Executive Judgment: Opinion of a group of high level
experts or managers is pooled
Sales Force Composite: Each regional salesperson
provides his/her sales estimates. Those forecasts are
then reviewed to make sure they are realistic. All
regional forecasts are then pooled at the district and
national levels to obtain an overall forecast.
Market Research/Survey: Solicits input from
customers pertaining to their future purchasing
plans. It involves the use of questionnaires,
consumer panels and tests of new products and
services.
Qualitative Methods
Delphi Method: As opposed to regular panels where the individuals
involved are in direct communication, this method eliminates the
effects of group potential dominance of the most vocal members. The
group involves individuals from inside as well as outside the
organization.
Typically, the procedure consists of the following steps:
Each expert in the group makes his/her own forecasts in form of
statements
The coordinator collects all group statements and
summarizes them
The coordinator provides this summary and gives another set
of questions to each
group member including feedback as to the input of other
experts.
The above steps are repeated until a consensus is reached.
.
Qualitative Methods
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 23
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression
Time-Series
Models
Associative
Model
Time Series Models
 Try to predict the future based on past
data
 Assume that factors influencing the past will
continue to influence the future
Product Demand over Time
Year
1
Year
2
Year
3
Year
4
Demand
for
product
or
service
1. Naive Approach
 Demand in next period is the same as
demand in most recent period
May sales = 48 →
 Usually not good
June forecast = 48
2a. Simple Moving Average
n
A
+
...
+
A
+
A
+
A
=
F 1
n
-
t
2
-
t
1
-
t
t
1
t


 Assumes an average is a good estimator of
future behavior
 Used if little or no trend
 Used for smoothing
Ft+1 = Forecast for the upcoming period, t+1
n = Number of periods to be averaged
A t = Actual occurrence in period t
2a. Simple Moving Average
You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics
department. You want to forecast ipod sales for
months 4-6 using a 3-period moving average.
n
A
+
...
+
A
+
A
+
A
=
F 1
n
-
t
2
-
t
1
-
t
t
1
t


Month
Sales
(000)
1 4
2 6
3 5
4 ?
5 ?
6 ?
2a. Simple Moving Average
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 ?
5 ?
(4+6+5)/3=5
6 ?
n
A
+
...
+
A
+
A
+
A
=
F 1
n
-
t
2
-
t
1
-
t
t
1
t


You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics
department. You want to forecast ipod sales for
months 4-6 using a 3-period moving average.
What if ipod sales were actually 3 in month 4
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 ?
5
6 ?
2a. Simple Moving Average
?
Forecast for Month 5?
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 ?
5
6 ?
(6+5+3)/3=4.667
2a. Simple Moving Average
Actual Demand for Month 5 = 7
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 7
5
6 ?
4.667
2a. Simple Moving Average
?
Forecast for Month 6?
Month
Sales
(000)
Moving Average
(n=3)
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3
5 7
5
6 ?
4.667
(5+3+7)/3=5
2a. Simple Moving Average
Gives more emphasis to recent data
Weights
decrease for older data
sum to 1.0
2b. Weighted Moving Average
1
n
-
t
n
2
-
t
3
1
-
t
2
t
1
1
t A
w
+
...
+
A
w
+
A
w
+
A
w
=
F 

Simple moving
average models
weight all previous
periods equally
2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6
Month Weighted
Moving
Average
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 31/6 = 5.167
5
6 ?
?
?
1
n
-
t
n
2
-
t
3
1
-
t
2
t
1
1
t A
w
+
...
+
A
w
+
A
w
+
A
w
=
F 

Sales
(000)
© 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 37
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16
May 19
June 23
July 26
Actual 3-Month Weighted
Month Shed Sales Moving Average
[(3 x 16) + (2 x 13) + (12)]/6 = 141/3
[(3 x 19) + (2 x 16) + (13)]/6 = 17
[(3 x 23) + (2 x 19) + (16)]/6 = 201/2
Weighted Moving Average
10
12
13
[(3 x 13) + (2 x 12) + (10)]/6 = 121/6
Weights Applied Period
3 Last month
2 Two months ago
1 Three months ago
6 Sum of weights
2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6
Month Sales
(000)
Weighted
Moving
Average
1 4 NA
2 6 NA
3 5 NA
4 3 31/6 = 5.167
5 7
6
25/6 = 4.167
32/6 = 5.333
1
n
-
t
n
2
-
t
3
1
-
t
2
t
1
1
t A
w
+
...
+
A
w
+
A
w
+
A
w
=
F 

3a. Exponential Smoothing
 Assumes the most recent observations
have the highest predictive value
 gives more weight to recent time periods
Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft)
et
Ft+1 = Forecast value for time t+1
At = Actual value at time t
a = Smoothing constant
Need initial
forecast Ft
to start.
Time Series: Exponential Smoothing (ES)
Main idea: The prediction of the future depends mostly on the
most recent observation, and on the error for the latest forecast.
Smoothin
g
constant
alpha α
Denotes the importance
of the past error
Example: bottled water at Kroger
Month Actual Forecasted
Jan 1,325 1,370
Feb 1,353 1,361
Mar 1,305 1,359
Apr 1,275 1,349
May 1,210 1,334
Jun ? 1,309
a = 0.2
Example: bottled water at Kroger
a = 0.8
Month Actual Forecasted
Jan 1,325 1,370
Feb 1,353 1,334
Mar 1,305 1,349
Apr 1,275 1,314
May 1,210 1,283
Jun ? 1,225
Planning and Forecasting
Methods
Quantitative Forecasting
4. Regression Analysis
Time/Period
Actual
Values
Data Points
Fitted Line
y=a+bx
Example: do people drink more when it’s cold?
Alcohol Sales
Average Monthly
Temperature
Which line best
fits the data?
Planning and Forecasting Forecasting
Methods
Quantitative Forecasting
4. Regression Analysis
This is an “Exploratory Forecasting Method”.
It develops “logical” relationships between variables.
Tries to minimize sum of the squares of the deviations.
Gives best fit for a line passing through the data.
Planning and Forecasting Forecasting
Methods
Quantitative Forecasting
4. Regression Analysis
2
2
)
(
)
(
)
(


  



i
i
i
i
i
i
x
x
n
y
x
y
x
n
b
x
b
y
a 

Statistical Modeling Techniques Used to Forecast
Human Resource Needs
‫دلفي‬ ‫فن‬
•
‫دلفي‬ ‫فن‬
‫دهه‬ ‫اواخر‬ ‫در‬ ‫آيد‬‫مي‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫به‬ ‫تحقيق‬ ‫روش‬ ‫يك‬ ‫واقع‬ ‫در‬ ‫كه‬
1940
‫گ‬ ‫كار‬ ‫به‬ ‫و‬ ،‫ايجاد‬ ‫كاليفرنيا‬ ‫سانتامونيكاي‬ ‫در‬ ‫راند‬ ‫شركت‬ ‫توسط‬ ،‫ميالدي‬
‫شد‬ ‫رفته‬
•
.
‫نظري‬ ‫آينده‬ ‫در‬ ‫موردنياز‬ ‫انساني‬ ‫منابع‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫خبرگان‬ ‫نظرات‬ ‫دريافت‬ ‫با‬
‫ات‬
‫خبرگ‬ ‫براي‬ ‫نتايج‬ ،‫نظريات‬ ‫كل‬ ‫از‬ ‫بندي‬‫جمع‬ ‫يك‬ ‫با‬ ‫و‬ ‫دريافت‬ ‫يك‬ ‫هر‬ ‫مستقل‬
‫ان‬
‫گردد‬‫مي‬ ‫ارسال‬ ‫دهنده‬ ‫نظريه‬
.
‫منابع‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫شده‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫بندي‬‫جمع‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫و‬
‫شود‬‫مي‬ ‫نظرخواهي‬ ‫آنها‬ ‫از‬ ً‫ا‬‫مجدد‬ ،‫شده‬ ‫بيني‬‫پيش‬ ‫انساني‬
.
‫تا‬ ‫سه‬ ‫اقدام‬ ‫اين‬
‫پنج‬
‫ق‬ ‫توافق‬ ‫يك‬ ‫به‬ ‫شده‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫بيني‬‫پيش‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫باالخره‬ ‫تا‬ ،‫شود‬‫مي‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫بار‬
‫ابل‬
‫شود‬ ‫رسيده‬ ‫قبول‬
Thanks for your attention

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ManpowerPlanning.pptx

  • 1. Student: Z. Faramarzi, MA Zarghamfaramarzi@gmail.com In the name of God Department of Education Faculty of Education and Psychology University of Shahid Chamran Ahwaz Course Title: Human Resource Management Instructor: Y. Mehralizadeh, Ph.D. Mehralizadeh_y@scu.ac.ir
  • 3. The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle. The general who loses a battle makes few calculations before the battle. It is by attention to this point that I can see who is likely to win or lose. Importance of Planning
  • 4. What is manpower planning? Manpower Planning which is also called as Human Resource Planning consists of putting right number of people, right kind of people at the right place, right time, doing the right things for which they are suited for the achievement of goals of the organization.
  • 5. Importance of Manpower Planning Manpower planning is a very important part of the overall planning of a business organization. It is obvious that a business cannot prosper unless the right number of employees, having required skills, talents & qualifications is available at right time. Manpower planning is done to fulfill the two main objectives, namely: (1) To utilize the present employees fully. (2) To fill up future manpower requirements.
  • 6. 1.Key to managerial functions- The four managerial functions, i.e., planning, organizing, directing and controlling are based upon the manpower. Human resources help in the implementation of all these managerial activities. Therefore, staffing becomes a key to all managerial functions. 2.Efficient utilization- Efficient management of personnel's becomes an important function in the industrialization world of today. Setting of large scale enterprises require management of large scale manpower. It can be effectively done through staffing function. 3.Motivation- Staffing function not only includes putting right men on right job, but it also comprises of motivational programmer, i.e., incentive plans to be framed for further participation and employment of employees in a concern. Therefore, all types of incentive plans becomes an integral part of staffing function. 4.Better human relations- A concern can stabilize itself if human relations develop and are strong. Human relations become strong trough effective control, clear communication, effective supervision and leadership in a concern. Staffing function also looks after training and development of the work force which leads to co-operation and better human relations. 5.Higher productivity- Productivity level increases when resources are utilized in best possible manner. higher productivity is a result of minimum wastage of time, money, efforts and energies. This is possible through the staffing and it's related activities ( Performance appraisal, training and development, remuneration) Importance of Manpower Planning View from education administration
  • 7. Types of Manpower planning Types of manpower planning can be distinguished: 1. On the basis of the level at which it is done. 2. On the basis of the period for which it is done. Manpower Planning On the basis of level On period basis Macro-level (national level) Micro-level (Industrial Unit level) Short period Medium period Long period
  • 8. Manpower Planning In developing country like Iran, manpower planning is absolutely essential. Manpower planning is done on the national level as a part of the planning for overall economical development of the country. The objective is to provide more & more opportunities of employment, while utilizing the human resource of the nation most efficient. In Iran manpower planning is a part of overall planning & so its responsibilities lie with planning commission. Manpower planning at the organizational level is also important, because it decides the various measures to be taken such as recruitment, selection, promotion, transfer etc. by an industrial unit.
  • 9. Manpower Forecasting  Manpower forecasting is assessing the anticipated increased manpower demands in an organization over a specific period .  Manpower forecasting is concerned with the projection of future manpower requirements both in their quantitative and qualitative aspect as necessitated by any changes in technology, methods of production, activities of the organization and thereby changes in organization structure.
  • 10.
  • 11. Forecasting • Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future. Victor Borge • I know of no way of judging of the future but by the past. Patrick Henry • Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out the back window. Anonymous
  • 12. General Guiding Principles for Forecasting 1. Forecasts are more accurate for larger groups of items. 2. Forecasts are more accurate for shorter periods of time. 3. Every forecast should include an estimate of error. 4. Before applying any forecasting method, the total system should be understood. 5. Before applying any forecasting method, the method should be tested and evaluated. 6. Be aware of people; they can prove you wrong very easily in forecasting
  • 13. © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 13 Seven Steps in Forecasting  Determine the use of the forecast  Select the items to be forecasted  Determine the time horizon of the forecast  Select the forecasting model(s)  Gather the data  Make the forecast  Validate and implement results
  • 14. Types of forecasting methods Rely on data and analytical techniques. Rely on subjective opinions from one or more experts. Qualitative methods Quantitative methods
  • 15.  Short-range forecast  Usually < 3 months  Job scheduling, worker assignments  Medium-range forecast  3 months to 2 years  Sales/production planning  Long-range forecast  > 2 years  New product planning Types of Forecasts by Time Horizon Design of system Detailed use of system Quantitative methods Qualitative Methods
  • 16. © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 16 Forecasting Approaches  Used when situation is vague and little data exist  New products  New technology  Involves intuition, experience  e.g., forecasting sales on Internet Qualitative Methods
  • 17. © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 17 Forecasting Approaches  Used when situation is ‘stable’ and historical data exist  Existing products  Current technology  Involves mathematical techniques  e.g., forecasting sales of color televisions Quantitative Methods
  • 18. Forecasting During the Life Cycle Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Sales Time Quantitative models - Time series analysis - Regression analysis Qualitative models - Executive judgment - Market research -Survey of sales force -Delphi method
  • 19.
  • 20. Briefly, the qualitative methods are: Executive Judgment: Opinion of a group of high level experts or managers is pooled Sales Force Composite: Each regional salesperson provides his/her sales estimates. Those forecasts are then reviewed to make sure they are realistic. All regional forecasts are then pooled at the district and national levels to obtain an overall forecast. Market Research/Survey: Solicits input from customers pertaining to their future purchasing plans. It involves the use of questionnaires, consumer panels and tests of new products and services. Qualitative Methods
  • 21. Delphi Method: As opposed to regular panels where the individuals involved are in direct communication, this method eliminates the effects of group potential dominance of the most vocal members. The group involves individuals from inside as well as outside the organization. Typically, the procedure consists of the following steps: Each expert in the group makes his/her own forecasts in form of statements The coordinator collects all group statements and summarizes them The coordinator provides this summary and gives another set of questions to each group member including feedback as to the input of other experts. The above steps are repeated until a consensus is reached. . Qualitative Methods
  • 22.
  • 23. © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 23 Overview of Quantitative Approaches 1. Naive approach 2. Moving averages 3. Exponential smoothing 4. Trend projection 5. Linear regression Time-Series Models Associative Model
  • 24. Time Series Models  Try to predict the future based on past data  Assume that factors influencing the past will continue to influence the future
  • 25. Product Demand over Time Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Demand for product or service
  • 26.
  • 27. 1. Naive Approach  Demand in next period is the same as demand in most recent period May sales = 48 →  Usually not good June forecast = 48
  • 28. 2a. Simple Moving Average n A + ... + A + A + A = F 1 n - t 2 - t 1 - t t 1 t    Assumes an average is a good estimator of future behavior  Used if little or no trend  Used for smoothing Ft+1 = Forecast for the upcoming period, t+1 n = Number of periods to be averaged A t = Actual occurrence in period t
  • 29. 2a. Simple Moving Average You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics department. You want to forecast ipod sales for months 4-6 using a 3-period moving average. n A + ... + A + A + A = F 1 n - t 2 - t 1 - t t 1 t   Month Sales (000) 1 4 2 6 3 5 4 ? 5 ? 6 ?
  • 30. 2a. Simple Moving Average Month Sales (000) Moving Average (n=3) 1 4 NA 2 6 NA 3 5 NA 4 ? 5 ? (4+6+5)/3=5 6 ? n A + ... + A + A + A = F 1 n - t 2 - t 1 - t t 1 t   You’re manager in Amazon’s electronics department. You want to forecast ipod sales for months 4-6 using a 3-period moving average.
  • 31. What if ipod sales were actually 3 in month 4 Month Sales (000) Moving Average (n=3) 1 4 NA 2 6 NA 3 5 NA 4 3 5 ? 5 6 ? 2a. Simple Moving Average ?
  • 32. Forecast for Month 5? Month Sales (000) Moving Average (n=3) 1 4 NA 2 6 NA 3 5 NA 4 3 5 ? 5 6 ? (6+5+3)/3=4.667 2a. Simple Moving Average
  • 33. Actual Demand for Month 5 = 7 Month Sales (000) Moving Average (n=3) 1 4 NA 2 6 NA 3 5 NA 4 3 5 7 5 6 ? 4.667 2a. Simple Moving Average ?
  • 34. Forecast for Month 6? Month Sales (000) Moving Average (n=3) 1 4 NA 2 6 NA 3 5 NA 4 3 5 7 5 6 ? 4.667 (5+3+7)/3=5 2a. Simple Moving Average
  • 35. Gives more emphasis to recent data Weights decrease for older data sum to 1.0 2b. Weighted Moving Average 1 n - t n 2 - t 3 1 - t 2 t 1 1 t A w + ... + A w + A w + A w = F   Simple moving average models weight all previous periods equally
  • 36. 2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6 Month Weighted Moving Average 1 4 NA 2 6 NA 3 5 NA 4 31/6 = 5.167 5 6 ? ? ? 1 n - t n 2 - t 3 1 - t 2 t 1 1 t A w + ... + A w + A w + A w = F   Sales (000)
  • 37. © 2006 Prentice Hall, Inc. 4 – 37 January 10 February 12 March 13 April 16 May 19 June 23 July 26 Actual 3-Month Weighted Month Shed Sales Moving Average [(3 x 16) + (2 x 13) + (12)]/6 = 141/3 [(3 x 19) + (2 x 16) + (13)]/6 = 17 [(3 x 23) + (2 x 19) + (16)]/6 = 201/2 Weighted Moving Average 10 12 13 [(3 x 13) + (2 x 12) + (10)]/6 = 121/6 Weights Applied Period 3 Last month 2 Two months ago 1 Three months ago 6 Sum of weights
  • 38. 2b. Weighted Moving Average: 3/6, 2/6, 1/6 Month Sales (000) Weighted Moving Average 1 4 NA 2 6 NA 3 5 NA 4 3 31/6 = 5.167 5 7 6 25/6 = 4.167 32/6 = 5.333 1 n - t n 2 - t 3 1 - t 2 t 1 1 t A w + ... + A w + A w + A w = F  
  • 39. 3a. Exponential Smoothing  Assumes the most recent observations have the highest predictive value  gives more weight to recent time periods Ft+1 = Ft + a(At - Ft) et Ft+1 = Forecast value for time t+1 At = Actual value at time t a = Smoothing constant Need initial forecast Ft to start.
  • 40. Time Series: Exponential Smoothing (ES) Main idea: The prediction of the future depends mostly on the most recent observation, and on the error for the latest forecast. Smoothin g constant alpha α Denotes the importance of the past error
  • 41. Example: bottled water at Kroger Month Actual Forecasted Jan 1,325 1,370 Feb 1,353 1,361 Mar 1,305 1,359 Apr 1,275 1,349 May 1,210 1,334 Jun ? 1,309 a = 0.2
  • 42. Example: bottled water at Kroger a = 0.8 Month Actual Forecasted Jan 1,325 1,370 Feb 1,353 1,334 Mar 1,305 1,349 Apr 1,275 1,314 May 1,210 1,283 Jun ? 1,225
  • 43. Planning and Forecasting Methods Quantitative Forecasting 4. Regression Analysis Time/Period Actual Values Data Points Fitted Line y=a+bx
  • 44. Example: do people drink more when it’s cold? Alcohol Sales Average Monthly Temperature Which line best fits the data?
  • 45. Planning and Forecasting Forecasting Methods Quantitative Forecasting 4. Regression Analysis This is an “Exploratory Forecasting Method”. It develops “logical” relationships between variables. Tries to minimize sum of the squares of the deviations. Gives best fit for a line passing through the data.
  • 46. Planning and Forecasting Forecasting Methods Quantitative Forecasting 4. Regression Analysis 2 2 ) ( ) ( ) (         i i i i i i x x n y x y x n b x b y a  
  • 47. Statistical Modeling Techniques Used to Forecast Human Resource Needs
  • 48. ‫دلفي‬ ‫فن‬ • ‫دلفي‬ ‫فن‬ ‫دهه‬ ‫اواخر‬ ‫در‬ ‫آيد‬‫مي‬ ‫حساب‬ ‫به‬ ‫تحقيق‬ ‫روش‬ ‫يك‬ ‫واقع‬ ‫در‬ ‫كه‬ 1940 ‫گ‬ ‫كار‬ ‫به‬ ‫و‬ ،‫ايجاد‬ ‫كاليفرنيا‬ ‫سانتامونيكاي‬ ‫در‬ ‫راند‬ ‫شركت‬ ‫توسط‬ ،‫ميالدي‬ ‫شد‬ ‫رفته‬ • . ‫نظري‬ ‫آينده‬ ‫در‬ ‫موردنياز‬ ‫انساني‬ ‫منابع‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫خبرگان‬ ‫نظرات‬ ‫دريافت‬ ‫با‬ ‫ات‬ ‫خبرگ‬ ‫براي‬ ‫نتايج‬ ،‫نظريات‬ ‫كل‬ ‫از‬ ‫بندي‬‫جمع‬ ‫يك‬ ‫با‬ ‫و‬ ‫دريافت‬ ‫يك‬ ‫هر‬ ‫مستقل‬ ‫ان‬ ‫گردد‬‫مي‬ ‫ارسال‬ ‫دهنده‬ ‫نظريه‬ . ‫منابع‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫شده‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫بندي‬‫جمع‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫و‬ ‫شود‬‫مي‬ ‫نظرخواهي‬ ‫آنها‬ ‫از‬ ً‫ا‬‫مجدد‬ ،‫شده‬ ‫بيني‬‫پيش‬ ‫انساني‬ . ‫تا‬ ‫سه‬ ‫اقدام‬ ‫اين‬ ‫پنج‬ ‫ق‬ ‫توافق‬ ‫يك‬ ‫به‬ ‫شده‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫بيني‬‫پيش‬ ‫مورد‬ ‫در‬ ‫باالخره‬ ‫تا‬ ،‫شود‬‫مي‬ ‫انجام‬ ‫بار‬ ‫ابل‬ ‫شود‬ ‫رسيده‬ ‫قبول‬
  • 49. Thanks for your attention