Machine Learning Foundations for Professional Managers

Machine Learning Foundations
for Professional Managers
Taiwan AI Academy
Hsinchu, 2018/08/04
Albert Y. C. Chen, Ph.D.
albert@viscovery.com
http://slideshare.net/albertycchen
http://www.linkedin.com/in/aycchen

Albert Y. C. Chen, Ph.D.
陳彥呈博⼠士
• Currently
VP of R&D @ Viscovery
Adjunct Faculty @ Taiwan AI Academy
Reviewer @ MOST, MOEA AI programs
Consultant @ Nexus Frontier Tech, UK
Consultant @ Cinnamon AI, Japan
Mentor @ Hack NTU, Make NTU, NTU GIS Forum, NTUST incubator
• Previously
2015–2017：Chief Scientist, Viscovery
2015–2015：Principal Scientist, Nervve Technologies, NY
2013–2014：Computer Vision Scientist, Tandent Vision Science, CA
2011–2012：R&D Staff, GE Global Research, NY
• Education
Ph.D. in CS (Computer Vision & Machine Learning), SUNY-Buffalo
B.S. in CS, National Tsing-Hua University

• data-driven
learning
methods
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• hand-crafted rules
Machine Learning (ML)
• Define learning
process and
model, learn
from data
• Define network
structure, learn
model from data
Deep Learning (DL)
Before we start, AI vs ML vs DL?

• Strategically, to:
• select AI features for implementation
incrementally, that delivers signiﬁcant value
with controllable risk,
• build up competitive advantage with a unique
AI that has a robust data cycle.
• Tactically, to:
• manage the development of AI features with a
lean cycle, to assure the deliverability when
data is obtained gradually or when
unexpected complications occur.
Professional managers, why study AI?

• Should a manager approve such requests?
(a) E.g., Give me 100 GPU's and 1000
annotated data/class * 1M classes. Don't ask
for results until 12 months later?
(b) Do quick prototype in 2 weeks on 100
classes with 10 annotated data/class. Add
more classes and data afterwards.
• Machine Learning algorithm used for (a) and (b)
are drastically different.
Why incremental? Why go lean?

• Incremental/lean isn't just for implementing a feature,
but also for product planning and feature selection.
• E.g., BD want AI feature A, B, C, ...Z. Select minimum
set that is least risky and delivers the most value.
• A gamechanger: people will want to buy your
product because of this AI feature.
• A showstopper: people won’t buy your product if
you’re missing this AI feature, but adding it won’t
generate additional demand.
• A distraction: this AI feature will make  
no measurable impact on adoption.
Why incremental? Why go lean?

• Chatbot to greet customers vs chatbots for
increasing trafﬁc to EC site.
• Inappropriate content monitoring for self-
regulation vs for entering lucrative new markets.
• Product recognition to speedup checkout and
retain customers vs to reduce labor or theft.
• Visual inspection for product QA, for different
industries and different manufacturers.
• Facility inspection robot for semi-conductor
facilities vs electronic device OEM makers.
Value of an AI feature differs greatly

It's not just features, but also data cycle
• Data are valuable & expensive. The faster the data
cycle, or the larger the volume in each cycle, the
better the AI.
different data
unique AI
business
advantage
Speed～～

Plan your AI product/feature wisely,
for the sake of a strong data cycle
Problem Data Scenario
Data cycle
quality
Face Recognition
user photos from
around the world
users would
correct labels
themselves
★★★★★
Face Recognition
surveillance
cameras in China
police would
need to manually
correct labels
★★★★
Face
beautiﬁcation
app users
hire add'l labor to
manually inspect
the results
★★
Virtual makeup app users
hire add'l labor to
manually inspect
the results
★★

1. AI Engineer
Data -> Train -> works!
2. AI Engineer/Researcher
Data -> Train -> no luck?
-> make it work!
3. Senior AI Researcher
new data collection method,
new model, make it work!
4. Junior AI Manager
Customer want 99/100,
deliver 99 all at once (with
uncertain time and cost)
5. AI Manager
deliver 80, 90, 95, 99
incrementally to accelerate
delivery and minimize risk
6. Senior AI Manager
deliver incrementally plus
accurately predict &
manage cost and time
7. Associate AI Strategist
With the help of domain
experts, quickly analyze
cost, value, risk. Propose &
deliver multi-stage AI plan.
8. AI Strategist
Independently analyze cost,
value, risk. Propose &
9. Senior AI Strategist
deliver multi-stage AI plan
across multiple domains.
aim of this semester
rare & in demand; driving force of "industry+AI"
AI/ML expert's 3x3 stages of growth

What is “Machine Learning”?
• Machine Learning (ML):
• Human Learning:
• Manual Programming:
rules

• Deterministic problems: repeat 1B
times, still get the same answer,
• problems lacking data,
• problems with easily separable data.
Manual Programming vs Machine Learning
• Data with noise,
• data of high dimension,
• data of large volume,
• data that changes over time.
When to manual program?
When to use machine learning?
our focus
today

• Data easily separable with Exploratory Data
Analysis (EDA), e.g.,
• What if the data remains messy/inseparable?
Problems with easily Separable Data
Box Plot Histograms Scatter Plots

• Automatic seafood sorting machine
• How do we sort them? By length? By weight?
Dealing with not-so-separable data?
Salmon
vs
Seabass

• Sort salmon and sea bass by weight? hmm...

• Sort salmon and sea bass by color? slightly better

• What if we sort salmon and sea bass with both
weight and color? Much better, but still...

What if we add another feature?
• More features ≠ better: number of features*N,
feature space grows by ^N, the number of samples
needed for ML grows proportionally as well.

• Most of the volume of an n-D sphere is
concentrated in a thin shell near the surface!!!
• nD sphere of , the volume of sphere
between and is:
The curse of dimensionality
r = 1
r = 1 ✏ r = 1 1 (1 ✏)D

• The curse of dimensionality not just effects the
feature space, but also input, output, and others.
• Much more challenging to train a good n-class
classifier, e.g., face recognition, 1-to-1
verification vs 1-to-n identification.
• Much more issues arise from using a general
purpose 1M-class classifier vs problem
specific 1k-class classifier.
Problems w. high-dim is prevalent

Recognition
Accuracy:
• 1 to 1: 99%+
• 1 to 100: 90%
• 1 to 10,000:
50%-70%.
• 1 to 1M: 30%.
LFW dataset, common FN↑, FP↓
Prevalent high-dim problem, eg.1
• 1-to-N face identiﬁcation, in the wild!

Prevalent high-dim problem, eg.2
• Smart photo album, with Google Cloud Vision
Distance between
histograms of 1M bins
is very close to 0 for
most of the time.

• Real data will often be conﬁned to a region of
the space having lower effective dimensionality.
• Data will typically exhibit some smoothness
properties (at least locally).
Living with high dimensions
E.g., Low-dimensional
“manifold” of faces,
embedded within a
high-dim space.
Keywords:
• dimension reduction,
• learned features,
• manifold learning.

• Data is often not clean and easily separable.
• Sometimes, data is way too noisy
• A way to deal with that is to add additional
features/measurements, but we run into the
problem of: feature dimension >> # data
• Sometimes, the data volume is too large to be
put into memory and learned at once.
• Sometimes, the data evolves over time.
That's what machine learning is about

We present you,
a simple & usable map for ML!
Dimension
Reduction
Clustering
Regression Classiﬁcation
continuous
(predicting a quantity)
discrete
(predicting a category)
supervisedunsupervised

Dimension Reduction
Machine Learning Roadmap
Dimension
Reduction
Clustering
continuous
discrete

• Goal: try to ﬁnd a more compact
representation of the data
• Assume that the high
dimensional data actually
reside in an inherent low-
dimensional space.
• Additional dimensions are 
just random noise
• Goal is to recover these
inherent dimensions and
discard noise.
Unsupervised Dimension Reduction

• Create a basis where
the axes represent the
dimensions of variance,
from high to low.
• Finds correlations in
data dimensions to
product best possible
lower-dimensional
representation based
on linear projections.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)

PCA algorithm, conceptual steps
• Find a line s.t. when data is projected onto the
line, it has the maximum variance.

• Find new line orthogonal to the ﬁrst that has the
maximum projected variance.

• Repeated until d lines. The projected position of
a point on these lines gives the coordinates in
the m-dimensional reduced space.
• Computing these set of lines is achieved by
eigen-decomposition of the covariance matrix.

• View PCA as minimizing the reconstruction error
of using a low-dimensional approximation of the
original data.
Alternative view of PCA

• Calculate the covariance matrix of the data S
• Calculate the eigen-vectors/eigen-values of S
• Rank the eigen-values in decreasing order
• Select eigen-vectors that retain a ﬁxed % of the
variance, e.g., 80%, s.t.,
Dimension Reduction using PCA
Pd
i=1 i
P
i i
80%

PCA example: Eigenfaces
Mean face
Basis of variance (eigenvectors)
M. Turk; A. Pentland (1991). "Face recognition using eigenfaces".
Proc. IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. pp. 586–591.

The ATT face database (formerly the ORL
database), 10 pictures of 40 subjects each

• Covariance of the image data is big. Finding
eigenvector of large matrices is slow.
• Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) can be
used to compute principal components.
• SVD steps:
• Create centered data matrix X
• Solve: X = USVT
• Columns of V are the eigenvectors of
sorted from largest to smallest eigenvalues.
PCA, scaling up
⌃

• Useful preprocessing for easing the "curse of
dimensionality" problem.
• Reduced dimension: simpler hypothesis
space
• Smaller VC dimension: less overﬁtting
• PCA can also be seen as noise reduction
• Fails when data consists of multiple separate
clusters
PCA discussion

• Also named Fisher Discriminant Analysis
• It can be viewed as
• a dimension reduction method,
• a generative classiﬁer p(x|y), Gaussian with
distinct for each class but shared .
Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA)
µ ⌃
classes mixed better separation

• Find a project direction so that the separation
between classes is maximized.
• Objective 1: maximize the distance between the
projected means of different classes
LDA Objectives
m1 =
1
N1
X
x2C1
x m2 =
1
N2
X
x2C2
x
original means:
projected means:
m0
1 =
1
N1
X
x2C1
wT
x m0
2 =
1
N2
X
x2C2
wT
x

• Objective 2: minimize scatter (variance within
class)
LDA Objectives
s2
i =
X
x2Ci
(wT
x m0
i)2Total within class scatter
for projected class i:
Total within class scatter: s2
1 + s2
2

• There are a number of different ways to combine
the two objectives.
• LDA seeks to optimize the following objective:
LDA Objective

LDA for two classes
w = S 1
w (m1 m2)

• Objective remains the same, with slightly
different deﬁnition for between-class scatter:
• Solution: k-1 eigenvectors of
LDA for Multi-Classes
J(w) =
wT
SBw
wTSww
SB =
1
k
kX
i=1
(mi m)(mi m)T
S 1
w SB

• Data often lies on
or near a nonlinear
low-dimensional
curve.
• We call such a
low-d structure
manifolds
• Algorithms include:
ICA, LLE, Isomap.
Nonlinear Dimension Reduction
swiss roll data

• A non-linear method for dimensionality reduction
• Preserves the global, nonlinear geometry of the
data by preserving the geodesic distances.
• Geodesic: shortest route between two points on
the surface of a manifold.
ISOMAP: Isometric Feature Mapping

1. Approximate the geodesic distance between
every pair of points in the data.
• The manifold is locally linear
• Euclidean distance works well for points that
are close enough.
• For points that are far apart, their geodesic
distance can be approximated by summing
up local Euclidean distances.
2. Find a Euclidean mapping of the data that
preserves the geodesic distance.
ISOMAP algorithm

• Construct a graph by:
• Connecting i and j if:
• d(i,j) < (if computing -isomap), or
• i is one of j's k nearest neighbors (k-isomap)
• Set the edge weight equal d(i,j) - Euclidean
distance
• Compute the Geodesic distance between any
two points as the shortest path distance.
Geodesic Distance
" "

• We can use Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS), a
class of statistical techniques that:
• Given:
• n x n matrix of dissimilarities between n
objects
• Outputs:
• a coordinate conﬁguration of the data in low-d
space Rd whose Euclidean distances closely
match given dissimilarities.
Compute low-dimensional mapping

Clustering
Dimension
Reduction
Clustering
continuous
discrete

• Sometimes, the data volume is large.
• Group together similar points and represent
them with a single token.
• Issues:
• How do we deﬁne two points/images/patches
being "similar"?
• How do we compute an overall grouping from
pairwise similarity?
Clustering

• Grouping pixels of similar appearance and
spatial proximity together; there's so many ways
to do it, yet none are perfect.
Clustering Example

• Summarizing Data
• Look at large amounts of data
• Patch-based compression or denoising
• Represent a large continuous vector with the
cluster number
• Counting
• Histograms of texture, color, SIFT vectors
• Segmentation
• Separate the image into different regions
• Prediction
• Images in the same cluster may have the same
labels
Why do we cluster?

• K-means
• Iteratively re-assign points to the nearest cluster
center
• Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) Clustering
• Mean-shift clustering
• Estimate modes of pdf
• Hierarchical clustering
• Start with each point as its own cluster and
iteratively merge the closest clusters
• Spectral clustering
• Split the nodes in a graph based on assigned
links with similarity weights
How do we cluster?

• Goal: cluster to minimize variance in data given
clusters while preserving information.
Clustering for Summarization
c⇤
, ⇤
= argmin
c,
1
N
NX
j=0
KX
i=0
i,j(ci xj)2
cluster center
data
Whether is assigned toxj ci

• Euclidean Distance:
• Cosine similarity:
How do we measure similarity?
✓ = arccos
✓
xy
|x||y|
◆
x
y
||y x|| =
p
(y x) · (y x)
distance(x, y) =
p
(y1 x1)2 + (y2 x2)2 + · · · + (yn xn)2
=
v
u
u
t
nX
i=1
(yi xi)2
x · y = ||x||2 ||y||2 cos ✓
similarity(x, y) = cos(✓) =
x · y
||x||2 ||y||2

• Compare distance of closest (NN1) and second
closest (NN2) feature vector neighbor.
• If NN1≈NN2, ratio NN1/NN2 will be ≈1 →
matches too close.
• As NN1 << NN2, ratio NN1/NN2 tends to 0.
• Sorting by this ratio puts matches in order of
conﬁdence.
Nearest Neighbor Distance Ratio

• How to threshold the nearest neighbor ratio?
Nearest Neighbor Distance Ratio
Lowe IJCV
2004 on
40,000
points.
Threshold
depends on
data and
speciﬁc
applications

1. Randomly select k initial cluster centers
2. Assign each point to nearest center
3. Update cluster centers as the mean of the points
4. repeat 2-3 until no points are re-assigned.
k-means clustering

• Initialization
• Randomly select K points as initial cluster
center
• Greedily choose K points to minimize residual
• Distance measures
• Euclidean or others?
• Optimization
• Will converge to local minimum
• May want to use the best out of multiple trials
k-means: design choices

• Cluster on one set, use another (reserved) set to
test K.
• Minimum Description Length (MDL) principal for
model comparison.
• Minimize Schwarz Criterion, a.k.a. Bayes
Information Criteria (BIC)
• (When building dictionaries, more clusters
typically work better.)
How to choose k

• Generative
• How well are points reconstructed from the
cluster?
• Discriminative
• How well do the clusters correspond to labels
(purity)
How to evaluate clusters?

• Pros
• Finds cluster center that minimize conditional
variance (good representation of data)
• simple and fast
• easy to implement
k-means pros & cons

• Cons
• Need to choose K
• Sensitive to outliers
• Prone to local minima
• All clusters have the same parameters
• Can be slow. Each iteration is O(KNd) for N d-
dimensional points
k-means pros & cons

• Clusters are spherical
• Clusters are well separated
• Clusters are of similar volumes
• Clusters have similar number of points
k-means works if

• Hard assignments, or probabilistic assignments?
• Case against hard assignments:
• Clusters may overlap
• Clusters may be wider than others
• Can use a probabilistic model,
• Challenge: need to estimate model
parameters without labeled Ys.
GMM Clustering
P(X|Y )P(Y )

• Assume m-dimensional data points
• still multinomial, with k classes
• are k
multivariate Gaussians
Gaussian Mixture Models
P(Y )
P(X|Y = i), i = 1, · · · , k
P(X = x|Y = i)
=
1
p
(2⇡)m|⌃i|
exp
✓
1
2
(x µi)T
⌃ 1
(x µi)
◆
mean (m-dim vector)
variance (m*m matrix)
determinant of matrix

Expectation Maximization (EM) for GMM
Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) example
1 2 3
4 5 6

• EM after 20 iterations
EM for GMM MLE example

• GMM for some bio assay data

• GMM for some bio
assay data, ﬁtted
separately for three
different
compounds.

• GMM with hard assignments and unit variance,
EM is equivalent to k-means clustering
algorithm!!!
• EM, like k-NN, uses coordinate ascent, and can
get stuck in local optimum.
GMM Clustering, notes

• mean-shift seeks modes of a given set of points
1. Choose kernel and bandwidth
2. For each point:
1. center a window on that point
2. compute the mean of the data in the
search window
3. center the search window at the new
mean location, repeat 2,3 until converge.
3. Assign points that lead to nearby modes to
the same cluster.
Mean-Shift Clustering

• Try to ﬁnd modes of a non-parametric density
Mean-shift algorithm
Color
space
Color
space
clusters

• Attraction basin: the region for which all
trajectories lead to the same mode.
• Cluster: all data points in the attraction basin of
a mode.
Attraction Basin
Slides by Y. Ukrainitz & B. Sarel

Mean Shift
region of interest
mean-shift vector
center of mass

• Mean-shift can also be used as clustering-based
image segmentation.
Mean-Shift Segmentation
D. Comaniciu and P. Meer, Mean Shift: A Robust
Approach toward Feature Space Analysis, PAMI 2002.

• Compute features for each pixel (color, gradients,
texture, etc.).
• Set kernel size for features and position .
• Initialize windows at individual pixel locations.
• Run mean shift for each window until convergence.
• Merge windows that are within width of and .
Mean-Shift Segmentation
Color
space
Color
space
clusters
Kf Ks
Kf Ks

• Speedups:
• binned estimation
• fast neighbor search
• update each window in each iteration
• Other tricks
• Use kNN to determine window sizes
adaptively
Mean-Shift

• Pros
• Good general-practice segmentation
• Flexible in number and shape of regions
• robust to outliers
• Cons
• Have to choose kernel size in advance
• Not suitable for high-dimensional features
Mean-Shift pros & cons

• DBSCAN: Density-based spatial
clustering of applications with noise.
• Density: number of points within a
speciﬁed radius (ε-Neighborhood)
• Core point: a point with more than
a speciﬁed number of points
(MinPts) within ε.
• Border point: has fewer than
MinPts within ε, but is in the
neighborhood of a core point.
• Noise point: any point that is not a
core point or border point.
DBSCAN
MinPts=4
p is core point
q is border point
o is noise point
q p
"
"
o

• Density-reachable: p is density-
reachable from q w.r.t. ε and
MinPts if there is a chain of
objects p1, ..., pn with p1=q and
pn=p, s.t. pi+1 is directly density-
reachable from pi w.r.t. ε and
MinPts for all
• Density-connectivity: p is
density-connected to q w.r.t. ε
and MinPts if there is an object
o, s.t. both p and q are density-
reachable from o w.r.t. ε and
MinPts.
DBSCAN
1  i  n

• Cluster: a cluster C in a set of objects D w.r.t. ε
and MinPts is a non-empty subset of D satisfying
• Maximality: for all p,q, if p ∈ C and if q is
density reachable from p w.r.t. ε.
• Connectivity: for all p,q ∈ C, p is density-
connected to q w.r.t. ε and MinPts in D.
• Note: cluster contains core & border points.
• Noise: objects which are not directly density-
reachable from at least one core object.
DBSCAN clustering

1. Select a point p
2. Retrieve all points density-reachable from p
w.r.t. ε and MinPts.
1. if p is a core point, a cluster is formed
2. if p is a border point, no points are density
reachable from p and DBSCAN visits the
next point of the database
3. continue 1,2, until all points are processed.
(result independent of process ordering)
DBSCAN clustering algorithm

• Heuristic: for points in a cluster, their kth nearest
neighbors are at roughly the same distance.
• Noise points have the kth nearest neighbor at
farthest distance.
• So, plot sorted distance of every point to its kth
nearest neighbor.
DBSCAN parameters
sharp change;
good candidate
for ε and MinPts.

• Pros
• No need to decide K beforehand,
• Robust to noise, since it doesn't require every
point being assigned nor partition the data.
• Scales well to large datasets with .
• Stable across runs and different data ordering.
• Cons
• Trouble when clusters have different densities.
• ε may be hard to choose.
DBSCAN pros & cons

• Agglomerative clustering v.s. Divisive clustering
Hierarchical Clustering

• Method:
1. Every point is its own cluster
2. Find closest pair of clusters, merge into one
3. repeat
• The deﬁnition of closest is what differentiates
various ﬂavors of agglomerative clustering
algorithms.
Agglomerative Clustering

• How to deﬁne the linkage/cluster similarity?
• Maximum or complete-linkage clustering
(a.k.a., farthest neighbor clustering)
• Minimum or single linkage clustering (UPGMA)
(a.k.a., nearest neighbor clustering)
• Centroid linkage clustering (UPGMC)
• Minimum Energy Clustering
• Sum of all intra-cluster variance
• Increase in variance for clusters being merged
single linkage complete linkage average linkage centroid linkage

• How many clusters?
• Clustering creates a dendrogram (a tree)
• Threshold based on max number of clusters or
based on distance between merges.

• Pros
• Simple to implement, widespread application
• Clusters have adaptive shapes
• Provides a hierarchy of clusters
• Cons
• May have imbalanced clusters
• Still have to choose the number of clusters or
thresholds
• Need to use an ultrametric to get a meaningful
hierarchy

• Group points based on links in a graph
Spectral Clustering
A
B

• Normalized Cut
• A cut in a graph that penalizes large
segments
• Fix by normalizing for size of segments 
 
 
 
 
volume(A) = sum of costs of all edges that
touch A
Spectral Clustering
Normalized Cut(A, B) =
cut(A, B)
volume(A)
+
cut(A, B)
volume(B)

• Determining importance by random walk
• What's the probability of visiting a given node?
• Create adjacency matrix based on visual similarity
• Edge weights determine probability of transition
Visual Page Rank
Jing Baluja 2008

• Quantization/Summarization: K-means
• aims to preserve variance of original data
• can easily assign new point to a cluster
Which Clustering Algorithm to use?
Quantization for computing
histograms
Summary of 20,000 photos of Rome using “greedy k-means”
http://grail.cs.washington.edu/projects/canonview/

• Image segmentation: agglomerative clustering
• More ﬂexible with distance measures (e.g.,
can be based on boundry prediction)
• adapts better to speciﬁc data
• hierarchy can be useful
http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~arbelaez/UCM.html

• K-means useful for
summarization, building
dictionaries of patches,
general clustering.
• Agglomerative clustering
useful for segmentation,
general clustering.
• Spectral clustering useful for
determining relevance,
summarization, segmentation.

• Synthetic dataset
Clustering algo. compared
http://hdbscan.readthedocs.io/en/latest/comparing_clustering_algorithms.html

• K-means, k=6

• Meanshift

• DBSCAN, ε=0.025

• Agglomerative Clustering, k=6, linkage=ward

• Spectral Clustering, k=6

Regression
Dimension
Reduction
Clustering
continuous
discrete

Linear Correlations
Y
X
Y
X
Linear relationships
Y
Y
X
X
Curvilinear relationships
Y
X
Y
X
Strong relationships
Y
Y
X
X
Weak relationships
Y
X
No relationship
Y
X

• In correlation, two variables are treated as
independent.
• In regression, one variable (x) is independent,
while the other (y) is dependent.
• Goal: if you know something about x, this would
help you predict something about y.
Regression

• Expected value at a
given level of x:
• Predicted value for a
new x:
Simple Linear Regression
y
x
random error that
follows a normal distribution
with 0 mean and variance
"
2
ﬁxed exactly
on the line
y = w0 + w1x
y0
= w0 + w1x + "
w0
w0/w1

Multiple Linear Regression
y(x, w) = w0 + w1x1 + · · · + wDxD
w0, ..., wD
xi
• Linear function of parameters , also a
linear function of the input variables , has very
restricted modeling power (can't even ﬁt curves).
• Assumes that:
• The relationship between X and Y is linear.
• Y is distributed normally at each value of X.
• The variance of Y at each value of X is the
same.
• The observations are independent.

• Before going further, let’s take a look at
polynomial line ﬁtting (polynomial regression.)
Linear Regression
Given N=10 blue dots, try to ﬁnd the function
that is used for generating the data points.
sin(2⇡x)

• Polynomial line ﬁtting:
• M is the order of the polynomial
• linear function of the coefﬁcients
• nonlinear function of
• Objective: minimize the error between the
predictions and the target value of
Polynomial Regression
x
w
y(xn, w) tn xn
ERMS =
p
2E(w⇤)/Nor, the root-mean-square error
E(w) =
1
2
NX
n=1
{y(xn, w) tn}
2
y(x, w) = w0 + w1x + w2x2
+ · · · + wM xM
+ "

Polynomial regression w. var. M

• There's only 10 data points, i.e., 9 degrees of
freedom; we can get 0 training error when M=9.
• Food for thought: make sure your deep neural
network's is not just "memorizing the training
data when its M >> data's DoF.
Polynomial regression w. var. M

• With M=9, but N=15 (left) and N=100, the over-
ﬁtting problem is greatly reduced.
• ML is all about balancing M and N. One rough
heuristic is that N should be 5x-10x of M (model
complexity, not necessarily the number of param.)
What happens with more data?

• Regularization: used for controlling over-ﬁtting.
• E.g., discourage coefﬁcients from reaching
large values: 
 
 
 
where
Regularization
˜E(w) =
1
2
NX
n=1
{y(xn, w) tn}
2
+
2
||w||2
||w||2
= wT
w = w2
0 + w2
1 + · · · + w2
M

• Extending linear regression to linear
combinations of ﬁxed nonlinear functions: 
 
 
 
where
• Basis functions: act as "features" in ML.
• Linear basis function:
• Polynomial basis function:
• Gaussian basis function
• Sigmoid basis function
Linear Models for Regression
y(x, w) =
M 1X
j=0
wj (x)
w = (w0, . . . , wM 1)T
, = ( 0, . . . , M 1)T
{ j(x)}
j(x) = xj
j(x) = xj

• Global functions of
the input variable,
s.t. changes in one
region of input
space affect all
other regions.
Polynomial Basis Functions
j(x) = xj

• Local functions, a
small change in x
only affect nearby
basis functions.
• and control
the location and
scale (width).
Gaussian Basis Functions
j(x) = exp
⇢
(x µj)2
2s2
µj s

• Local functions, a
small change in x
only affect nearby
basis functions.
• and control
the location and
scale (slope).
Sigmoidal Basis Functions
µj s
j(x) =
✓
x µj
s
◆
(a) =
1
1 + exp( a)
where

• Adding a regularization term to an error function:
• One of simplest forms of regularizer is sum-of-
squares of the weight vector elements:
• This type of weight decay regularizer (in ML),
a.k.a., parameter shrinkage (in statistics)
encourages weight values to decay towards
zero, unless supported by the data.
Regularized Least Squares
EW (w) =
1
2
wT
w
ED(w) + EW (w)

• A more general regularizer in the form of:
• q=2 is the quadratic regularizer (last page).
• q=1 is known as lasso in statistics.
Regularized Least Squares
1
2
NX
n=1
tn wT
(xn)
2
+
2
MX
j=1
|wj|q
sum of squared error generalized regularizer,

• LASSO: least absolute shrinkage and selection
operator
• When is sufﬁciently large, some of the
coefﬁcients are driven to zero, leading to a
sparse model
LASSO
wj

• Large values of : small variance but large bias
• Small values of : large variance, small bias
The Bias-Variance Tradeoff

Classiﬁcation
Dimension
Reduction
Clustering
continuous
discrete

• Before we start, we need to estimate data
distribution and develop sampling strategies,
• figure out how to measure/quantify data, or, in
other words, represent them as features,
• figure out how to split data to training and
validation set.
• After we learn a model, we need to measure the
fit, or the error on validation set.
• Finally, how do we evaluate how well our trained
model generalize.
Steps for Supervised Learning

Sampling & Distributions
😄
😃 🤪
😀
🤣
😂
😅😆
😁
☺
😊
😇
🙂
🙃
😉😌
😍
🤓
😎
🤩
😏
😬
🤠
😋
The importance of good sampling & distribution estimation.
Population with attribute
modeled by functionf : X ! Y
X Y
Learn from D =
😄
😃 🤪🤣
😂
🤩
😋
sample
x 2 X, y 2 Y
{(x1, y1), (x2, y2), ..., (xN , yN )}
f0
incorrectly predicts that
everyone else “smiles crazily”
f0

• The chances of getting a "perfect" sample of the
population at ﬁrst try is very very small. When
the population is huge, this problem worsens.
• Noise during the measurement process adds
additional uncertainties.
• As a result, it is natural to try multiple times, and
formulate the problem in a probabilistic way.
Sampling & Distributions

When we measure the wrong
features, we’ll need very
complicated classiﬁers, and
the results are still not ideal.
Features
baseball tennis ball
vs
There’s always “exceptions”
that would ruin our perfect
assumptions yellow
baseball?
we learn the best features from data with deep learning.

• k-fold cross validation
Splitting data
😄😃 🤪😀 🤣 😂😅😆 😁 ☺😊 😇🙂🙃 😉😌 😍🤓 😎🤩 😏 😬🤠 😋
Repurposing the smily faces
ﬁgures to represent the set of
annotated data.
😄
😃 🤪
😀
🤣
😂
😅😆
😁
☺
😊
😇
🙂
🙃
😉😌
😍
🤓
😎
🤩
😏
😬
🤠
😋
Randomly split into k groups

• Given a set of samples and their ground
truth annotation , learn a function
that minimizes the prediction error
for new .
• The function is a classiﬁer. Classiﬁers
divides input space into decision regions
separated by decision boundaries.
Supervised Learning
xj /2 X
xi 2 X
yi
decision boundary
E(yj, f(xj))
y = f(x)
y = f(x)
x1
x2
R1
R2
R3

• Spam detection:
• X = { characters and words in the email }
• Y = { spam, not spam}
• Digit recognition:
• X = cut out, normalized images of digits
• Y = {0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}
• Medical diagnosis
• X = set of all symptoms
• Y = set of all diseases
Supervised Learning Examples

• Joint probability of X taking
the value xi and Y taking the
value yi :
• Marginalizing: probability
that X takes the value xi
irrespective of Y:
Before we train classiﬁers, a gentle
review on probability notations
yj nij
xi
} rj
}
ci
p(X = xi, Y = yi) =
nij
N
p(X = xi) =
ci
N
, where ci =
X
j
nij

• Conditional Probability: the
fraction of instances where Y
= yj given that X = xi.
• Product Rule:
yj nij
xi
} rj
}
ci
p(Y = yj|X = xi) =
nij
ci
p(X = xi, Y = yj) =
nij
N
=
nij
ci
·
ci
N
= p(Y = yj|X = xi)p(X = xi)
we will be seeing this a lot when building classiﬁers
Before we train classiﬁers, a gentle
review on probability notations

• Bayes' Rule plays a central
role in pattern recognition
and machine learning.
• From the product rule,
together with the symmetric
property
we get:
Bayes' Rule & Posterior Probability
yj nij
xi
} rj
}
ci
p(X, Y ) = p(Y, X)
p(Y |X) =
p(X|Y )p(Y )
p(X)
, where p(X) =
X
Y
p(X|Y )p(Y )
posterior probability, given prior p(Y) and likelihood p(X|Y)

• p(Y = a) = 1/4, p(Y = b) = 3/4
• p(X = blue | Y = a) = 3/5
• p(X = green | Y = a) = 2/5
When we randomly draw a ball that is blue, the
probability that it comes from Y=a is?
Example of Bayes' Rule
Y=a Y=b
p(Y = a|X = blue) =
p(X = blue|Y = a)p(Y = a)
p(X = blue)
=
p(X = blue|Y = a)p(Y = a)
(p(X = blue|Y = a)p(Y = a) + (p(X = blue|Y = b)p(Y = b)
=
3
5 · 1
4
3
5 · 1
4 + 2
5 · 3
4
=
3
20
3
20 + 6
20
=
3
20
9
20
=
1
3

What are Posterior Probability and
Generative Models good for?
Discriminative Model:
directly learn the data
boundary
Generative Model:
represent the data
and boundary

• Learn to directly predict labels from the data
• Often uses simpler boundaries (e.g., linear) for
hopes of better generalization.
• Often easier to predict a label from the data than
to model the data.
• E.g.,
• Logistic Regression
• Support Vector Machines
• Max Entropy Markov Model
• Conditional Random Fields
Discriminative Models

• Represent both the data and the boundary.
• Often use conditional independence and priors.
• Modeling data is challenging; need to make and
verify assumptions about data distribution
• Modeling data aids prediction & generalization.
• E.g.,
• Naive Bayes
• Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)
• Hidden Markov Model
• Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN)
Generative Models

• Find a linear function to separate the classes
Linear Classiﬁers
• Logistic Regression
• Naïve Bayes
• Linear SVM

• Using a probabilistic approach to model data,
the distribution of P(X,Y): given data X, ﬁnd the Y
that maximizes the posterior probability p(Y|X).
• Problem: we need to model all p(X|Y) and p(Y).
If | X | = n, there are 2n possible values for X.
• The Naïve Bayes' assumption assumes that xi's
are conditionally independent.
Naïve Bayes Classiﬁer
p(Y |X) =
p(X|Y )p(Y )
p(X)
, where p(X) =
X
Y
p(X|Y )p(Y )
p(X1 . . . Xn|Y ) =
Y
i
p(Xi|Y )

• Given:
• Prior p(Y)
• n conditionally independent features,
represented by the vector X, given the class Y
• For each Xi, we have likelihood p(Xi | Y)
• Decision rule:
Y ⇤
= argmax
Y
p(Y )p(X1, . . . , Xn|Y )
= argmax
Y
p(Y )
Y
i
p(Xi|Y )

• For discrete Naïve Bayes, simply count:
• Prior:
• Likelihood:
• Naïve Bayes Model:
Maximum Likelihood for Naïve Bayes
p(Y = y0
) =
Count(Y = y0
)
P
y Count(Y = y)
p(Xi = x0
|Y = y0
) =
Count(Xi = x0
, Y = y0
)
P
x Count(Xi = x, Y = y)
p(Y |X) / p(Y )
Y
i,j
p(X|Y )

• Conditional probability model over:
• Classiﬁer:
p(Ck|x1, . . . , xn) =
1
Z
p(Ck)
nY
i=1
p(xi|Ck)
˜y = argmax
k2{1,...,K}
p(Ck)
nY
i=1
p(xi|Ck)

• Features X are entire document. Xi for ith word in
article. X is huge! NB assumption helps a lot!
Naïve Bayes for Text Classiﬁcation

• Typical additional assumption: Xi's position in
document doesn't matter: bag of words.
aardvark 0
about 2
all 2
Africa 1
apple 0
...
gas 1
...
oil 1
...
Zaire 0

• Learning Phase:
• Prior: p(Y), count how many documents in
each topic (prior).
• Likelihood: p(Xi|Y), for each topic, count how
many times a word appears in documents of
this topic.
• Testing Phase: for each document, use Naïve
Bayes' decision rule:
argmax
y
p(y)
wordsY
i=1
p(xi|y)

• Given 1000 training documents from each
group, learn to classify new documents
according to which newsgroup it came from.
• comp.graphics,
• comp.os.ms-windows.misc
• ...
• soc.religion.christian
• talk.religion.misc
• ...
• misc.forsale
• ...

• Usually, features are not conditionally independent:
• Actual probabilities p(Y|X) often bias towards 0 or 1
• Nonetheless, Naïve Bayes is the single most used
classiﬁer.
• Naïve Bayes performs well, even when
assumptions are violated.
• Know its assumptions and when to use it.
Naïve Bayes Classiﬁer Issues
p(X1, . . . , Xn|Y ) 6=
Y
i
p(Xi|Y )

• Regression model for which the dependent
variable is categorical.
• Binomial/Binary Logistic Regression
• Multinomial Logistic Regression
• Ordinal Logistic Regression (categorical, but
ordered)
• Substituting Logistic Function 
 
, 
we get:
Logistic Regression
y(x, w) =
1
1 + e (w0+w1x)
˜x = w0 + w1xf(˜x) =
1
1 + e ˜x

• E.g., for predicting:
• mortality of injured patients,
• risk of developing a certain disease based on
observations of the patient,
• whether an American voter would vote
Democratic or Republican,
• probability of failure of a given process, system or
product,
• customer's propensity to purchase a product or
halt a subscription,
• likelihood of homeowner defaulting on mortgage.
When to use logistic regression?

• Hours studied vs passing the exam
Logistic Regression Example
Ppass(h) =
1
1 + e ( 4.0777+1.5046·h)

• Prediction: output the Y with highest p(Y|X). For
binary Y, output Y if
Logistic Regression: decision boundary
p(Y = 0|X, w) =
1
1 + exp(w0 +
P
i wiXi)
p(Y = 1|X, w) =
exp(w0 +
P
i wiXi)
1 + exp(w0 +
P
i wiXi)
1 <
P(Y = 1|X)
P(Y = 0|X)
1 < exp(w0 +
nX
i=1
wiXi)
0 < w0 +
nX
i=1
wiXi
w0 + w · X = 0

• Decision boundary: p(Y=0 | X, w) = 0.5
• Slope of the line deﬁnes how quickly probabilities go to 0
or 1 around decision boundary.
Visualizing p(Y = 0|X, w) =
1
1 + exp(w0 + w1x1)

• Decision boundary is deﬁned by y=0 hyperplane
Visualizing p(Y = 0|X, w) =
1
1 + exp(w0 + w1x1 + w2x2)

• Generative (Naïve Bayes) loss function:
• Data likelihood
• Discriminative (logistic regression) loss function:
• Conditional Data likelihood
• Maximize conditional log likelihood!
Logistic Regression Param. Estimation
ln p(D|w) =
NX
j=1
ln p(xj
, yj
|w) =
NX
j=1
ln p(yj
|xj
, w) +
NX
j=1
ln p(xj
|w)
ln p(DY |DX, w) =
NX
j=1
ln p(yj
|xj
, w)

• Maximize conditional log likelihood (Maximum
Likelihood Estimation, MLE):
• No closed-form solution.
• Concave function of w → no need to worry
about local optima; easy to optimize.
l(w) ⌘ ln
Y
j
p(yj
|xj
, w)
=
X
j
yj
(w0 +
X
i
wixj
i ) ln(1 + exp(w0 +
X
i
wixj
i )

• Conditional likelihood for logistic regression is convex!
• Gradient:
• Gradient Ascent update rule:
• Simple, powerful, use in 
many places.
rwl(w) =

dl(w)
dw0
, . . . ,
dl(w)
dwn
w = ⌘rwl(w)
w
(t+1)
i w
(t)
i + ⌘
dl(w)
dwi

• MLE tends to prefer large weights
• Higher likelihood of properly classified
examples close to decision boundary.
• Larger influence of corresponding features on
decision.
• Can cause overfitting!!!

• Regularization to avoid large weights, overﬁtting.
• Add priors on w and formulate as Maximum a
Posteriori (MAP) optimization problem.
• Deﬁne prior with normal distribution, zero
mean, identity towards zero; pushes
parameters towards zero.
• MAP estimate:
p(w|Y, X) / p(Y |X, w)p(w)
w⇤
= argmax
w
ln
2
4p(w)
NY
j=1
p(yj
|xj
, w)
3
5

• Logistic Regression in more general case, where
Y = { y1, ..., yR}. Deﬁne a weight vector wi for
each yi, i=1,...,R-1.
Logistic Regression for Discrete Classiﬁcation
p(Y = 1|X) / exp(w10 +
X
i
w1iXi)
p(Y = 2|X) / exp(w20 +
X
i
w2iXi)
p(Y = r|X) = 1
r 1X
j=1
p(Y = j|X)
...

• E.g., Y={0,1}, X = <X1, ..., Xn>, Xi continuous.
Naïve Bayes vs Logistic Regression
Naïve Bayes
(generative)
Logistic Regression
(discriminative)
Number of parameters 4n+1 n+1
parameter estimation uncoupled coupled
when # training samples → infinite 
& model correct
good classifier good classifier
when # training samples → infinite 
& model incorrect
biased classifier
less-biased
classifier
Training samples needed O(log N) O (N)
Training convergence speed faster slower

Naïve Bayes vs Logistic Regression
• Examples from UCI Machine Learning dataset

Perceptron
• Invented in 1957 at the Cornell Aeronautical
Lab. Intended to be a machine instead of a
program that is capable of recognition.
• A linear (binary) classiﬁer.
Mark I
perceptron machine
i1
i2
in
...
+ f o
o = f
nX
k=1
ik · wk
!

• Start with zero weights: w=0
• For t=1...T (T passes over data)
• For i=1...n (each training sample)
• Classify with current weights 
(sign(x) is +1 if x>0, else -1)
• If correct, (i.e., y=yi), no change!
• If wrong, update
Binary Perceptron Algorithm
w = w + yi
xi
y = sign(w · xi
)
w xi
w + (-1) xi

Binary Perceptron example
update = 0

update = 1update = 1

update = 1update = 1update = 2

update = 1update = 1update = 2update = 3

update = 1update = 1update = 2update = 3update = 5

update = 1update = 1update = 2update = 3update = 5update = 10

update = 1update = 1update = 2update = 3update = 5update = 10update = 20

• If we have more than two classes:
• Have a weight vector for each class wy
• Calculate an activation function for each class
• Highest activation wins
Multiclass Perceptron
activationw(x, y) = wy · x
y⇤
= argmax
y
(activationw(x, y))

• Starts with zero weights
• For t=1, ..., T, i=1, ..., n (T times over data)
• Classify with current weights
• If correct (y=yi), no change!
• If wrong: subtract features xi from weights for
predicted class wy and add them to weights
for correct class wyi.
Multiclass Perceptron
y = argmax
y
wy · xi
wy = wy xi
wyi = wyi xi
xi
wyi
wyi + xi
wy
wy xi

• Text classiﬁcation example:
x = "win the vote" sentence
Multiclass Perceptron Example
BIAS 1
win 1
game 0
vote 1
the 1
,,,
BIAS -2
win 4
game 4
vote 0
the 0
,,,
BIAS 1
win 2
game 0
vote 4
the 0
,,,
BIAS 2
win 0
game 2
vote 0
the 0
,,,
wsports
wpolitics
wtech
x
x · wsports = 2
x · wpolitics = 7
x · wtech = 2
Classiﬁed as "politics"

• The data is linearly separable with margin if
Linearly separable (binary)
9w 8t yt
(w · xt
) > 0
x1
x2

• Assume data is separable with margin
• Also assume there is a number R such that
• Theorem: the number of mistakes (parameter
updates) made by the perceptron is bounded:
Mistake Bound for Perceptron
9w⇤
s.t.||w⇤
||2 = 1 and 8t yt
(w⇤
·t
)
8t ||xt
||2  R
mistakes 
R2
r2

• Noise: if the data isn't separable,
weights might thrash (averaging
weight vectors over time can help).
• Mediocre generalization: ﬁnds a
barely separating solution.
• Overtraining: test / hold-out
accuracy usually rises then falls.
Issues with Perceptrons
Seperable: Non-Seperable:
thrashing
barely separable

Linear SVM Classiﬁer
f(x) = g(w · x + b)
• Deﬁne hyperplane where is the
tangent to hyperplane, is the matrix of all
data points. Minimize s.t.
produces correct label for all .
t
X
tX b = 0
||t|| tX b
X
x1
x2

Linear SVM Classiﬁer
x1
x2 f(x) = g(w · x + b)
• Deﬁne hyperplane where is the
tangent to hyperplane, is the matrix of all
data points. Minimize s.t.
produces correct label for all .
t
X
tX b = 0
||t|| tX b
X
support vectors

• Some data sets are not linearly separable!
• Option 1:
• Use non-linear features, e.g., polynomial basis
functions
• Learn linear classifers in a transformed, non-
linear feature space
• Option 2:
• Use non-linear classiﬁers (decision trees,
neural networks, nearest neighbors)
Nonlinear Classiﬁers

• Assign label of nearest training data point to
each test data point.
Nearest Neighbor Classiﬁer
Duda, Hart and Stork, Pattern Classiﬁcation

K-Nearest Neighbor Classiﬁer
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
x2
x1
+
+
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
x2
x1
+
+
1-nearest
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
x2
x1
+
+
3-nearest
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
x2
x1
+
+
5-nearest

• Data that are linearly separable work out great:
• But what if the dataset is just too hard?
• We can map it to a higher-dimensional space!
Nonlinear SVMs
0
0
x
x
0
x
x2

• Map the input space to some higher dimensional
feature space where the training set is
separable:
Nonlinear SVMs
: x ! (x)

• The kernel trick: instead of explicitly computing
the lifting transformation
• This gives a non-linear decision boundary in the
original feature space:
• Common kernel function: Radial basis function
kernel.
Nonlinear SVMs
K(xi, xj) = (xi) · (xj)
X
i
↵iyi (xi) · (x) + b =
X
i
↵iyiK(xi, x) + b

• Consider the mapping:
Nonlinear kernel example
0
x
x2
(x) = (x, x2
)
(x) · (y) = (x, x2
) · (y, y2
) = xy + x2
y2
K(x, y) = xy + x2
y2

• Histogram intersection kernel:
• Generlized Gaussian kernel:
D can be (inverse) L1 distance, Euclidean
distance, distance, etc.
Kernels for bags of features
I(h1, h2) =
NX
i=1
min(h1(i), h2(i))
K(h1, h2) = exp
✓
1
A
D(h1, h2)2
◆
X2

• Combine multiple two-class SVMs
• One vs others:
• Training: learn an SVM for each class vs the others.
• Testing: apply each SVM to test example and
assign it to the class of the SVM that returns the
highest decision value.
• One vs one:
• Training: learn an SVM for each pair of classes
• Testing: each learned SVM votes for a class to
assign to the test example.
Multi-class SVM

• Pros:
• SVMs work very well in practice, even with very
small training sample sizes.
• Cons:
• No direct multi-class SVM; must combine two-class
SVMs.
• Computation and memory usage:
• Must compute matrix of kernel values for each
pair of examples.
• Learning can take a long time for large problems.
SVMs: Pros & Cons

• Prediction is done by sending the example down
the tree until a class assignment is reached.
Decision Tree Classiﬁer

• Internal Nodes: each test a feature
• Leaf nodes: each assign a classiﬁcation
• Decision Trees divide the feature space into axis-
parallel rectangles and label each rectangle with
one of the K classes.
Decision Tree Classiﬁer

• Goal: ﬁnd a decision tree that achieves minimum
misclassiﬁcation errors on the training data.
• Brute-force solution: create a tree with one path
from root to leaf for each training sample. 
(problem: just memorizing, won't generalize.)
• Find the smallest tree that minimizes error. 
(problem: this is NP-hard.)
Training Decision Trees

1. Choose the best feature a* for the root of the tree.
2. Split training set S into subsets {S1, S2, ..., Sk}
where each subset Si contains examples having
the same value for a*.
3. Recursively apply the algorithm on each new
subset until all examples have the same class
label.
The problem is, what deﬁnes the "best" feature?
Top-down induction of Decision Tree

• Decision Tree feature selection based on
classiﬁcation error.
Choosing Best Feature
Does not work well, since it doesn't reﬂect progress
towards a good tree.

• Choose feature that gives the highest
information gain (X that has the highest mutual
information with Y).
• Deﬁne to be the expected remaining
uncertainty about y after testing xj.
Choosing Best Feature
argmax
j
I(Xj; Y ) = argmax
j
H(Y ) H(Y |Xj)
= argmin
j
H(Y |Xj)
˜J(j)
˜J(j) = H(YX)j) =
X
x
p(Xj = x)H(Y |Xj = x)

• Minimizing the misclassiﬁcation rate
• Minimizing the expected loss
• The reject option
Decision Theory

• Decision boundary, or simply, in 1D, a threshold,
s.t. anything larger than the threshold are
classiﬁed as a class, and smaller than the
threshold as another class.
Decision Boundary

• Different metrics & names used in different fields
for measuring ML performance; however, the
common cornerstones are:
• True positive (TP): sample is an apple,
classified as an apple.
• False positive (FP): sample is not an apple, but
classified as an apple.
• True negative (TN): sample is not an apple,
classified as not an apple.
• False negative (FN): sample is an apple, but
misclassified as "not an apple.
True/False, Positive/Negative

• Precision:  
 
Classifier identified (TP+FP)
apples, only TP are apples.
(aka positive predictive value.)
• Recall: 
 
Total (TP+FN) apples,
classifier identified TP.  
(aka, hit rate, sensitivity, true
positive rate)
Precision vs Recall
TP
TP + FP
TP
TP + FN

• F-measure:  
 
harmonic mean of precision and recall. F-
measure is criticized outside Information
Retrieval ﬁeld for neglecting the true negative.
• Accuracy (ACC):  
 
a weighted arithmetic mean of precision and
inverse precision, as well as the weighted
arithmetic mean of recall and inverse recall.
A single balanced metric?
TP + TN
TP + TN + FP + FN
2 ·
precision · recall
precision + recall

Multi-objective Optimization
e.g., micro air vehicle wing design

• Different types of errors are weighted differently;
e.g., medical examinations, minimize false
negative but can tolerate false positive.
• Reformulate objectives from maximizing
probability to minimizing weighted loss
functions.
• The reject option: refrain from making decisions
on difﬁcult cases (e.g., for samples within a
certain region inside the decision boundary.)
Minimizing the expected loss

• Minimizing Training and Validation Error, v.s.
minimizing Testing Error.
• Memorizing every “practice exam” question ≠
doing well on new questions. Avoid overﬁtting.
Generalization
E.g., training a classiﬁer
that recognizes trees

• Bias:
• Difference between the expected (or
averaged) prediction of our model and the
correct value.
• Error due to inaccurate assumptions/
simpliﬁcations.
• Variance:
• Amount that the estimate of the target function
will change if different training data was used.
Generalization Error

Bias/variance trade-off
Scott Fortmann-Roe

• Model is too simple to represent all the relevant
class characteristics.
• High bias (few degrees of freedom, DoF) and
low variance.
• High training error and high test error.
Underﬁtting

• Model is too complex and ﬁts
irrelevant noise in the data
• Low bias, high variance
• Low training error, high test error
Overﬁtting

Error (mean square error, MSE)  
= noise2 + bias2 + variance
Bias-Variance Trade-off
unavoidable
error
error due to incorrect
assumptions made
about the data
error due to variance
of training samples

Model Complexity
Slide credit: D. Hoiem

Training Sample vs Model Complexity

Effect of Training Sample Size

Ensembles: Combining Classiﬁers

1. Create T bootstrap samples, {S1, ..., ST} of S as
follows:
• For each Si, randomly draw |S| examples from
S with replacement.
• With large |S|, each Si will contain 1 - 1/e =
63.2% unique examples.
2. For each i=1, ..., T, hi = Learn (Si)
3. Output H = <{h1, ..., hT}, majority vote >
Bootstrap Aggregating (Bagging)
Leo Breiman, "Bagging Predictors", Machine Learning, 24, 123-140 (1996)

• A learning algorithm is unstable if small changes
in the training data produces large changes in
the output hypothesis.
• Bagging will have little beneﬁt when used with
stable learning algorithms.
• Bagging works best when used with unstable
yet relatively accurate classiﬁers.
Learning Algorithm Stability

• Bagging: individual classifiers are independent
• Boosting: classifiers are learned iteratively
• Look at errors from previous classifiers to
decide what to focus on for the next iteration
over data.
• Successive classifiers depends upon its
predecessors.
• Result: more weights on "hard" examples, i.e.,
the ones classified incorrectly in the previous
iterations.
Boosting

• Consider E = <{h1, h2, h3}, majority vote>
• If h1, h2, h3 have error rates less than e, the error
rate of E is upper-bounded by g(a): 3e2-2e3 < e
Error Upper Bound
e
3e2-2e3

• Hypothesis of getting a classifier ensemble of
arbitrary accuracy, from weak classifiers.
Arbitrary Accuracy from Weak Classifiers
The original formulating of boosting learns too slowly.
Empirical studies show that Adaboost is highly effective.

• Adaboost works by learning many times on
different distributions over the training data.
• Modify learner to take distribution as input.
1. For each boosting round, learn on data set S
with distribution Dj to produce jth ensemble
member hj.
2. Compute the j+1th round distribution Dj+1 by
putting more weight on instances that hj made
mistake on.
3. Compute a voting weight wj for hj.
Adaboost

Adaboost Example
Credit: "A tutorial on boosting" by Yoav Freund and Rob Schapire.

• Suppose the base learner L is a weak learner,
with error rate slightly less than 0.5 (better than
random guess)
• Training error goes to zero exponentially fast!!!
Adaboost Properties

Semi-supervised Learning
Dimension
Reduction
Clustering
continuous
discrete

• When annotated data is costly to obtain.
• When data volume is HUGE!
When to use semi-
supervised learning?

• Assume that class boundary should go through
low density areas.
• Having unlabeled data helps getting better
decision boundary.
Why can unlabeled data help?
supervised learning
semi-supervised learning

• Assume that each
class contains a
coherent group of
points (e.g., Gaussian)
• Having unlabeled data
points can help learn
the distribution more
accurately.
Why can unlabeled data help?

• Generative models:
• Use unlabeled data to more accurately
estimate the models.
• Discriminative models:
• Assume that p(y|x) is locally smooth
• Graph/manifold regularization
• Multi-view approach: multiple independent
learners that agree on unlabeled data
• Cotraining
Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL)

SSL Bayes Gaussian Classiﬁer
Without SSL:
optimize
With SSL:
optimize
p(Xl, Yl|✓)
p(Xl, Yl, Xu|✓)

• In SSL, the learned needs to explain the
unlabeled data well, too.
• Find MLE or MAP estimate of joint and marginal
likelihood:
• Common mixture models used in SSL:
• GMM
• Mixture of Multinomials
SSL Bayes Gaussian Classiﬁer
✓
p(Xl, Yl, Xu|✓) =
X
Yu
p(Xl, Yl, Xu, Yu|✓)

• Binary classiﬁcation with GMM using MLE
• Using labeled data only, MLE is trivial:
• With both labeled and unlabeled data, MLE is
harder---use EM:
Estimating SSL GMM params
log p(Xl, Yl|✓) =
lX
i=1
log p(yi|✓) p(xi|yi, ✓)
+
l+uX
i=l+1
log (
2X
y=1
p(y|✓) p(xi|y, ✓))
log p(Xl, Yl|✓) =
lX
i=1
log p(yi|✓) p(xi|yi, ✓)

• Start with MLE
• = proportion of class c
• = sample mean of class c
• = sample covariance of class c
• The E-step: compute the expected label 
 
 
for all .
• The M-step: update MLE with (now labeled)
Semi-Supervised EM for GMM
✓ = {w, µ, ⌃}1:2 on (Xl, Yl)
wc
µc
⌃c
p(y|x, ✓) =
p(x, y|✓)
P
y0 p(x, y0|✓)
x 2 Xµ
✓ Xµ

• SSL is sensitive to assumptions!!!
• Cases when the assumption is wrong:
SSL GMM Discussions

So, where's Deep Learning?
Dimension
Reduction
Clustering
continuous
discrete

Machine Learning Workflow
Classical Workflow:
1. Data collection
2. Feature Extraction
3. Dimension Reduction
4. Classifier (re)Design
5. Classifier Verification
6. Deploy
Modern workflow; brute-force deep learning
1. Data collection
2. Throw everything into a Deep Neural Network
3. Mommy, why doesn’t it work ???

Features for Computer Vision,
before Deep Learning

Features Learned by modern
Deep Neural Networks
• Neurons act like “custom-trained ﬁlters”; react to
very different visual cues, depending on data.

• Does not “memorize” millions of viewed images.
• Extracts greatly reduced number of features that
are vital to classify different classes of data.
• Classifying data becomes a simple task when
the features measured are “”good”.
What do DNNs learn?

More to follow in the
remainder of the semester
• Deep Learning
• Transfer Learning
• Reinforcement Learning
• Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN)
• ...

1. AI Engineer
Data -> Train -> works!
2. AI Engineer/Researcher
-> make it work!
3. Senior AI Researcher
new data collection method,
new model, make it work!
4. Junior AI Manager
deliver 99 all at once (with
uncertain time and cost)
5. AI Manager
deliver 80, 90, 95, 99
incrementally to accelerate
delivery and minimize risk
6. Senior AI Manager
deliver incrementally plus
accurately predict &
manage cost and time
7. Associate AI Strategist
With the help of domain
experts, quickly analyze
cost, value, risk. Propose &
8. AI Strategist
9. Senior AI Strategist
deliver multi-stage AI plan
across multiple domains.
aim of this semester
rare & in demand; driving force of "industry+AI"
Again, AI/ML expert's 3x3 stages of growth

When something is important enough,
you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.
Elon Musk
Falcon 9
takeoff
Falcon 9
decelerate
Falcon 9
vertical
touchdown

Machine Learning Foundations for Professional Managers

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