There are also obvious structural characteristics in 4G IoT connections, of which LTE Cat 1 is a branch worthy of attention. From the current situation of the development of the cellular IoT, the time has come for LTE Cat 1 to assume the main force of 4G IoT connection.
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LTE Cat 1
Written By Calio Huang
There are also obvious structural characteristics in 4G IoT connections, of which LTE Cat 1 is a
branch worthy of attention. From the current situation of the development of the cellular IoT, the
time has come for LTE Cat 1 to assume the main force of 4G IoT connection.
GSMA's future network experts have repeatedly reminded the industry at industry summits:
Although 5G has attracted much attention, 4G will still occupy the largest share until 2025. For
the Internet of Things, in the next few years, 4G will not only bear a large share of the cellular IoT
connection but also the main source of operators' cellular IoT revenue. However, there are also
obvious structural features in 4G IoT connections, of which LTE Cat 1 is a branch worthy of
attention. From the current situation of the development of the cellular IoT, the time has come
for LTE Cat 1 to assume the main force of 4G IoT connection.
Unlike previous mobile communication technologies, 4G LTE does not provide all users with the
same homogeneous services. LTE network operators will hierarchically classify users in various
ways and provide different network capabilities services. For example, according to the Quality of
Service (QoS) agreement signed with the user, the operator will provide users with customized
services, including bandwidth, access priority, and other guarantees. And the industry is more
familiar with the hierarchical service, which provides different service capabilities according to
the terminal access capability level, that is, the UE Category (user terminal level).
According to 3GPP related standards and specifications, the UE category is a series of variable
wireless performance parameters in the uplink/downlink, which contains many wireless
characteristics, the most important of which is the rate supported by the user equipment.
Generally, the transmission capability of a terminal is determined by various parameters of the
UE Category between the base station and the user terminal. The base station adjusts its own
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parameter settings according to the UE Category to reasonably communicate with the user
terminal. From this perspective, the UE Category is also the basis for designing various types of
terminals in the industrial chain. Among them, Category 1 is the user terminal level configured
with the minimum version parameters, which allows the industry to design "low-profile" 4G
terminals at low cost, which is generally referred to as Category 1.
Of course, the "low-profile" 4G terminal Cat 1 also plays an important role in the industry. For
example, some mobile phone manufacturers consider using Cat 1 chips to launch 4G elderly
smartphones, because many elderly machines only require basic call and data functions. Cat 1
supports VoLTE and low-rate data at a lower cost, giving mobile phone manufacturers a new
option.
This pyramid structure reveals the distribution of cellular IoT connections: 60% of IoT connections
require narrowband networks to provide services, while low-to-medium-rate IoT devices require
Cat 1 or eMTC networks to provide services, and only about 10% of high-speed services require
4G Cat 4 or more or 5G eMBB services. Looking back at our current cellular IoT industry ecology,
it can be clearly seen that the narrowband and high-speed services already have mature
networks and industrial ecosystems, while the medium and low-speed IoT networks and related
industrial ecosystems, which account for 30%, are relatively blank. Therefore, the development of
the Cat 1 network and related industries is very meaningful for complementing the needs of the
main scenarios of the Internet of Things.
Four perspectives on the timing of Cat 1 launch
In 2016, China Telecom released the commercial plan for Cat 1 and launched the Cat1 module
subsidy plan, but in the past few years, Cat 1 has not ushered in the expected large-scale
connection. Of course, at that time, it may not be the best time, and the industry has changed a
lot in the past few years. Is it a better time to promote Cat 1 again? We can look at it from four
perspectives.
(1) Intergenerational migration of cellular IoT connection methods has begun
2019 is the first year of 5G, but for some time to come, the industry will still present a situation
where 2G / 3G / 4G / 5G four generations of mobile communication networks coexist. This
situation has caused great difficulties in the planning of infrastructures such as site and frequency
spectrum. Therefore, the industry hopes that the old-generation network can accelerate the
frequency reduction and log-off, leaving scarce resources to the new-generation network.
The development of the cellular Internet of Things is also largely affected by the
intergenerational upgrade of mobile communication networks, opening the way for
intergenerational migration of connection methods. According to data from the market research
agency Counterpoint, in the next few years, the number of cellular IoT connections will
experience a migration from 2G + 4G to NB-IoT + 4G.
According to Counterpoint data, by 2025, the number of 2G / 3G IoT connections is almost
negligible. Therefore, during the intergenerational migration of cellular IoT connection methods,
the original 2G / 3G connections can only be undertaken by NB-IoT and 4G. Among them,
low-frequency, small packets, low mobility, and low latency sensitivity, but for higher cost
sensitivity, can be undertaken through NB-IoT; medium rate, certain requirements on latency and
mobility, support for voice and cost Scenarios with a certain capacity can be undertaken through
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Cat 1.
Earlier, although the official plan for the 2G / 3G network exit of domestic operators was not
released, the industry has already made clear expectations for it. Due to the long life cycle of IoT
devices, under the risk of 2G / 3G logout, users may consider not adopting the 2G / 3G
connection method when making decisions. However, at that time, the NB-IoT network coverage
and industrial chain were still immature. The low, medium and low-speed Internet of Things
applications lack new connection methods, and users do not have many options. As a result, they
can only choose traditional 2G / 3G.
However, the NB-IoT industry ecosystem is currently ready, and if Cat 1 is able to exert its power,
it is indeed a better opportunity to promote the intergenerational migration of the cellular IoT.
The newly added low-to-medium-rate terminals are connected through Cat 1. A large part of the
existing low-to-medium-rate 2G / 3G terminals has already reached the end of their life cycle by
2025. They can be replaced with Cat 1 to migrate some of the 2G / 3G connections to 4G.
(2) The cost is approaching the affordable range
A few years ago, the scale of the 4G Internet of Things was relatively small, and the related
hardware costs were still high. More companies in the industry chain also focused on Cat 4 and
above product development and promotion. After several years of development, the 4G IoT
industry ecology has developed rapidly, chip and module design and production processes have
become more mature and stable, hardware costs have fallen sharply, and the number of
participants has also been relatively rich. 4G IoT module prices have begun to enter 70 Yuan
below the interval.
Since Cat 1 belongs to the 4G series, it can completely reuse existing 4G resources. Under the
current background, with the mature 4G industry chain, Cat 1 as a low-profile version of 4G, only
need to make a small cut on the existing 4G products, it is possible to quickly bring it to market
and reduce the cost to the industry's expected range.
(3) Infrastructure ready and new opportunities
As early as 2017, China Telecom announced that Cat 1 could be commercialized. Based on the
existing 4G network, for each operator, Cat 1 does not require additional investment in the
network. It can be said that the infrastructure side is ready.
In the past few years, Chinese operators have built the world's largest 4G network, and the
breadth and depth of network coverage are far ahead of overseas operators. According to the
latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of September
this year, the total number of 4G base stations in the country has reached 5.19 million,
accounting for 64.2% of all base stations. The network infrastructure of this scale provides an
environment for mobile communication users across the country to access anytime, anywhere.
With the help of 4G network infrastructure construction, Cat 1 can also provide IoT users with the
opportunity to access anytime and anywhere. It can be said that its network infrastructure is not
weaker than 2G / 3G and NB-IoT, and it is migrated to Cat 1 for IoT connections. Lay a good
foundation.
However, in addition to the ready Cat 1 infrastructure, Cat 1 is facing new opportunities due to its
special domestic background. C&T RF Antennas Inc believes that this opportunity stems from
eMTC's domestic progress not meeting expectations.
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Because of its 1Mbps speed, support for mobility, and VoLTE, eMTC can undertake
low-to-medium-speed 2G / 3G Internet of Things connections, forming a substitute for Cat1 to a
certain extent. However, the development of domestic eMTC is facing difficulties in many aspects.
The author believes that it mainly includes: in terms of investment, operators will invest more
resources into 5G construction, it is difficult to obtain funding budget for eMTC construction; and
in the industrial ecology, due to lack of infrastructure Participating manufacturers in this area are
very limited; in terms of application cases, they are mainly concentrated overseas, but these
cases may not be able to be used in China.
Due to various difficulties, the domestic industry is not expected to have high eMTC. There are
not many alternatives for the low-to-medium-rate cellular IoT connection solution. In the end,
Cat 1 may be selected. This is an opportunity for Cat 1 to develop rapidly.
(4) Motivation and determination of operators
Industry trends, cost reduction, and network infrastructure are ready. These three conditions are
not enough to drive the rapid development of Cat 1. It also depends on the attitude of the
dominant player in this game. The attitude of the operators in this field is very important. When
operators have great motivation and determination, this industry will develop rapidly when other
conditions are in place.
In my opinion, different operators have different motivations and determinations. We take China
Mobile as an example for analysis.
Over the past ten years, China Mobile has operated one of the best 2G networks in the world. At
present, although China Mobile's strategic plan has not yet specified the timetable for 2G
network withdrawal, industry public opinion continues to increase the pressure on it. The
negative impact of the network's withdrawal from service can be minimized is what China Mobile
wants to see.
According to public data, as of the end of June 2019, China Mobile had more than 690 million IoT
connections. The vast majority of connections of this size are still achieved through 2G. In 2018,
China Mobile's 2G IoT connection increased at a rate of 30 million per month. Such a large scale
and rapid growth actually make it carry a heavy burden to a certain extent, and the generation
migration of IoT users is becoming more and more difficult. From this perspective, since China
Telecom and China Unicom have fewer 2G IoT users and there is not much historical burden, the
resistance to 2G withdrawal is very small.
When users have doubts about the risk of a 2G logout, what new options can be given to users?
This is a question that China Mobile must carefully consider. In this context, the Cat 1 network
matures and products are launched, giving users a suitable choice. From this perspective,
perhaps it has great motivation and determination to promote Cat 1.
On the other hand, what we are seeing is the change in operator revenue in the Internet of
Things, which has prompted them to have greater incentives for the migration of IoT connections
to Cat 1. Taking China Mobile as an example, according to the interim financial report data, the
gap between the growth rate of IoT connection and IoT revenue growth of China Mobile's IoT
business is narrowing.
In the past two years, the number of China Mobile IoT connections has been growing at a rate
exceeding 100%, while revenue growth has remained basically below 50%; but in the first half of
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2019, China Mobile IoT revenue growth It is still in the range of 40% -50%, but the growth rate of
the number of connections has dropped below 80%. The decline in connection growth and the
rise in revenue have coexisted. It can be seen that the average income brought by the Internet of
Things connection is gradually increasing, and the ARPU value has increased. In the first half of
2019, the ARPU value of China Mobile's Internet of Things industry was 1.25 yuan/month, which
is less than the whole year of 2018. 1.14 yuan/month has begun to pick up.
To ensure continued connections and revenue growth, it is necessary to increase sales of more
high-value products. Compared with the previous 2G and NB-IoT, Cat 1 as a 4G connection can
improve the ARPU value and accelerate the closing of the scissors. In the context of SASAC's
assessment of the high-quality development of state-owned enterprises, increasing sales of
high-value products has become an important means. From this perspective, operators have
great motivation and determination to promote the migration of 2G / 3G medium-rate services
to Cat 1.
From the analysis of the above four angles, we can see that the launch of Cat 1 is a good time.
Product design and launch rhythm
However, the intergenerational migration of cellular IoT connections also requires a process, and
the related product design and launch pace need detailed planning. Because it is faced with
low-to-medium-rate scenarios, especially some medium-rare applications, the environment that
users face is relatively complex, and product design needs more comprehensive consideration.
For example, elevator media has certain requirements for data bandwidth, but the data real-time
requirements are not high. Cat 1 can be used instead of Cat 4 to reduce the cost of media
operators, but the elevator media screen sometimes increases the demand for viewer interaction,
such as Focus screens, trendy screens, and other screen promotion advertisements often guide
viewers to turn on the mobile phone Bluetooth to send coupons. For another example, existing
types of sharing formats, such as shared bicycles, have cellular and Bluetooth connectivity as
standard. In these scenarios, if the IoT module can integrate Cat 1 and Bluetooth, it will
accelerate customer product development.
With the further development of the industry, when there are a large number of landing forms in
Cat 1 related formats, and there are large-scale requirements for specific scenarios, at this time
various customized single-mode products may enter the launch plans of various manufacturers.
Because the low-to-medium-rate IoT connection is much higher than the high-rate IoT
connection, it can be expected that Cat 1 will occupy the dominant position in the structure of 4G
IoT connections in the future, higher than Cat 4 and above connections. At present, the
commercial timing of Cat 1 has begun. In the future, we look forward to accelerating the
intergenerational upgrade of the Internet of Things through the joint efforts of the industry.