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Why 5G is the first of the new infrastructure?
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Why 5G is the first of the new infrastructure?
Written by Calio
5G, why is it the first of the new infrastructure?
After undergoing 5G trials in 2017, 5G trials in 2018, and pre-commercialization in the first half of
2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued 5G commercial
licenses to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Radio and Television on June 6,
2019. On October 31 of that year, at the 2019 China International Information and
Communication Exhibition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the three
major operators held a 5G commercial launching ceremony. The 5G package was launched,
marking that China officially entered the 5G commercial era.
5G is a carnival feast, but after a brief boom, the 5G industry has also exposed some problems
and challenges to be resolved:
Technology: R16 freezes in March 2020, and indicators such as latency need to be continuously
improved; domestic industrial chains (high-end chip design and manufacturing, etc.) still have
gaps in integrity and competitiveness;
Network: high-frequency bands, difficult coverage, difficult to obtain basic supporting facilities,
and increased network construction costs; high power consumption, increased network
operation and maintenance costs; edge computing to achieve low latency is still in the
verification stage, and a complete and open industrial ecology needs to be formed;
Terminal: The complexity and cost of multi-network video phone terminals affect the
development of large-scale users; co-existence of multiple network modes and switching
between networks will affect the 5G user experience;
Application: Vertical industry users agree that there is a cycle, and cross-industry development
and integration solutions need to be customized;
5G is named after the new infrastructure. Where is the new infrastructure and what industry
opportunities are hidden? 5G has been hot throughout 2019. What changes will the new
infrastructure bring to the 5G industry? They are all unanswered examination papers.
5G sets the stage for the digital economy
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5G is the first of the new infrastructure. The proposal of the 5G new infrastructure concept shows
that we should look at 5G from another perspective, although this has already occurred to
practitioners.
Sun Songlin, a professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, told Lei Fengwang
that the reason why the new infrastructure is called new is that it has increased the construction
of information and communication infrastructure compared with traditional infrastructure, and
its novelty is more reflected in its support for the digital economy.
5G is the most fundamental communication infrastructure in the new infrastructure. Not only can
it provide important network support for other infrastructures such as big data centers, artificial
intelligence, and the Industrial Internet, but it can also enable digital technologies such as big
data and cloud computing to be quickly empowered. All walks of life are important carriers of the
digital economy.
Different from traditional infrastructure, the proposal of new infrastructure comes from changes
in the economic situation. The "China Digital Economy Development and Employment White
Paper (2019)" released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology
shows that China's digital economy reached 31.3 trillion in 2018. Yuan, accounting for 34.8% of
GDP and contributed more than two-thirds to GDP growth.
From 2016 to 2018, the digital economy maintained a nominal growth rate of more than 20% for
three consecutive years, more than ten percentage points higher than the nominal growth rate of
GDP over the same period. In 2018, China's digital economy employed 191 million jobs,
accounting for 24.6%, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, which is significantly higher than the
growth rate of total employment in the country during the same period.
The comprehensive development trend of China's digital economy has been completed, and the
digital economy requires new digital infrastructure. New infrastructure is a top-down push at the
national level. 5G is the infrastructure in the digital economy era.
Why can't the communication technology in 4G and before be regarded as a new infrastructure?
Intel Academician and Chief Expert of Wireless Technology and Standards Wu Geng once said
that 5G is the starting point but not the end. It is the convergence of communication and
computing. Now, we have begun to use computing to solve communication problems; in the
future, the industry will usher in a revolution in using communications technology to solve
computing problems.
5G network speed is ten to one hundred times that of 4G, but this is only the most basic
capability of 5G. Ultra-low latency, multiple heterogeneities (combining multiple wireless
technologies such as 2.5G, 3G, 4G, LTE, WiFi, and millimeter-wave), 5G is also the first time in
history that is not just a network designed to connect people. Comprehensive transformation to
have a virtual core network, cloud-based architecture, and advanced data analysis capabilities.
So 5G is not an iteration of mobile communication technology, but an important turning point in
the next round of technological revolution.
In fact, networks, mobile platforms, and terminals need to be innovative in architecture, form,
and design. This is where 5G is different from other generations of technology. In addition to the
communication function, it is more important that it integrates operation and storage. Therefore,
the information network in the future will be a trinity of network communication, operation, and
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storage.
5G network side takes the lead
With the advent of the new infrastructure, the industry was affected and the whole body was
affected.
Operators are at the core of the current development of the 5G industry. Without a network,
everything is empty talk. The operator side directly reflects the progress of the industry.
Coincidentally, the day after the announcement of the new infrastructure, China Mobile started
the collection of new equipment for the 5G SA core network in 2020, involving companies in 8
regions / 31 provinces across the country to build 5G SA core network elements and NFV
virtualization platform equipment; The main equipment of the second phase of the 5G wireless
network is collected, involving a total of 232,143 5G base stations in 28 provinces (municipalities
and autonomous regions).
China Mobile stated that it will strive to reach 300,000 5G base stations by the end of 2020,
ensure that 5G commercial services will be provided in all cities at and above the national level in
2020, accelerate the evolution from the NSA to the target network of SA, and strive to achieve SA
commercialization in the fourth quarter.
As of the end of February, China Mobile has constructed and opened more than 80,000 5G base
stations, including 286 5G base stations in key areas for epidemic prevention and control. As of
the end of January 2020, the number of 5G package customers reached 6.736 million.
On March 10th, China Telecom and China Unicom jointly launched the joint collection of wireless
master equipment for the 5G SA new construction project in 2020, with an estimated scale of
250,000 stations. China Telecom stated that the construction progress affected by the epidemic
should be recovered in the first half of the year. At the end of September, it would complete the
construction of 250,000 5G base stations with China Unicom and strive to complete the goal of
300,000 5G base stations by the end of the year. At present, China Telecom has opened 74,000
5G base stations.
China Unicom also stated that in the first half of the year, China Telecom and China Telecom
strived to complete the construction of 100,000 base stations in 47 prefectures and cities. In the
third quarter, they strived to complete the construction of 250,000 base stations across the
country. China Unicom has opened a total of about 66,000 stations, and the two sides of Telecom
and China Unicom have jointly opened a total of 50,000 stations to build and share base stations,
basically completing the first stage of the grid connection goal. As of now, it is estimated that the
two parties have saved a total of about 10 billion investment costs.
In 5G construction, we can share without new construction, strictly control the proportion of new
stations, and reduce construction costs. This is also the principle of controlling costs and
accelerating the construction of 5G networks.
At present, governments at all levels across the country have issued a series of 5G development
policies. Facing the current new situation and task requirements, governments at all levels should
fully implement relevant policies and form policy toolboxes to support various 5G enterprises to
make full use of the policy environment and ensure that 5G networks are well constructed and
applied. Experts agree that 5G development requires long-term strategic deployment and
comprehensive policy tools to support. Whoever has the right strategic thinking and who uses
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the policy tools well will be able to take the lead in the new round of Internet revolution. Facing
the new situation and new tasks under the influence of the epidemic, governments at all levels
must fully release policy dividends and form a 5G policy toolbox because of local policies, and can
quickly transform the development of 5G into a key driving force for supporting high-quality
economic development.
5G investment is a ballast stone for economic growth
The notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of
Industry and Information Technology on the organization and implementation of new
infrastructure construction projects in 2020 (broadband network and 5G) will further highlight
the role of new infrastructure in promoting 5G. "Notice" issued seven notification notices for 5G
innovative application enhancement projects, the document clearly stated:
The total investment of a single project is not less than 100 million yuan. According to the
"Temporary Administrative Measures for Investment (Subsidy) in the Central Budget of High-tech
Industry Development Projects", the subsidy funds in the central budget are arranged in
accordance with the principle of grading. The project will arrange subsidy funds in three stages of
150 million yuan, 100 million yuan and 50 million yuan, and the proportion of subsidy funds will
not exceed 50% of the total investment of the project after approval.
The seven 5G innovative application enhancement projects are:
5G smart medical system construction for major public health emergencies;
5G virtual enterprise private network construction for Internet + collaborative manufacturing;
Large-scale application of 5G new technologies for smart grids;
Large-scale verification and application of 5G-based vehicle-road cooperative vehicle network;
5G + Smart Education Application Demonstration;
5G smart port application system construction;
5G + 4K / 8K ultra-high-definition broadcast system infrastructure construction;
From the above notice, it is not difficult to see that the Development and Reform Commission
and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, on behalf of the country, directly use
the investment to accelerate the 5G industry, and take the lead in establishing a number of
demonstration cases in industries that are related to the people's livelihood and those with good
transformation conditions, thereby enhancing confidence in the 5G industry.
However, the 5G industry does not rely solely on investment. The issue of 5G construction funds
has received national project investment and policy support, but there is still a large gap; in the
long run, if there is no good business model in operation and maintenance, the funding gap will
increase. It is getting worse. The 5G industry needs 3-5 years of construction, operation, and
maintenance before it can gradually mature. It also needs multiple attempts in various industries
to find application breakthroughs, and the acceleration of funding is limited.
According to the forecast of the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology,
it is estimated that by 2025, China's 5G network construction investment will total 1.2 trillion
yuan, which will drive the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and investment in
various industries to exceed 3.5 trillion yuan. According to the "5G Industrial Economic
Contribution" issued by the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, it is
estimated that from 2020 to 2025, China's total economic output driven by 5G commercial use
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will be about 24.8 trillion yuan.
5G business waits for closed-loop
Solving the 5G business closed loop is the real spring of the 5G industry.
For the current stage and in the future, how to better accelerate the development of 5G, further
explore the 5G business model, and reduce the operational risks caused by huge investments are
the issues that need to be solved at present.
5G investment and operating costs are significantly higher than the 4G. Due to the current low
level of equipment maturity, a large number of equipment optimization and replacement costs
will need to be assumed in the future after large-scale deployment. On the other hand, the 5G
profit model is still unclear, and no advanced applications have appeared on the 2C side. The plan
has been implemented, but the scale promotion and business model are not clear.
Unlike human-oriented telecommunications connections, various digital applications for the
industry will become mainstream in the 5G era. At present, AT & T's non-telecommunications
revenue in the United States has reached 40%, and the non-telecommunications revenue of
Korea Telecom and Softbank in Japan also exceeds 30%.
At present, 5G has not really entered a different stage from consumer Internet applications, and
we don't know enough about it. From historical experience, when 3G was born, people did not
foresee smartphones, mobile e-commerce, and social applications; in the 4G era, the enthusiasm
of sharing economy, scan code payment and a short video was unexpected. The new business
form of mobile communications is born after the network and users reach a certain scale.
Therefore, in the 5G era, there will be new applications that we still cannot imagine, and their
greater value needs to be innovatively developed.
As an equipment supplier, of course, I hope that operators can deploy 5G networks as soon as
possible. Huawei's point of view is even more radical. Yang Tao, vice president of Huawei's China
operator business department, believes that 5G has entered a commercial cycle and commercial
flywheels are turning faster and faster. Compared with the previous generation technology, 5G
will bring us experience change, technology change, and social management change.
But he also said that To C is the foundation of 5G development, and To B is the future of 5G
development. Yang Tao predicts that this year's global 5G commercial network will increase from
60 in 2019 to 170, and base stations will increase from 500,000 in 2019 to 1.5 million. By the end
of this year, global 5G users are expected to increase from more than 10 million To 250 million.
The biggest opportunity for 5G is in the To B industry, with 10.6 trillion yuan of domestic market
space. The data given by Huawei shows.
No matter from the perspective of the operator or the equipment manufacturer, it is not difficult
to find that finding the 5G business model is the biggest pain point of the 5G industry. The
potential of the To C market is exhausted, and the exploration of the To B market is currently and
foremost in the future. In the context of the industry competition and cooperation game, the 5G
business cannot yet say that it has found a mature model.
The Internet of Vehicles is one of the more mature scenarios of the 5G vertical industry. The data
shows that by 2020, the global C-V2X (cellular communication based on cellular technology)
market will exceed 614 billion yuan, and the Chinese market will reach 200 billion yuan. Liao
Leiming, General Manager of Datang Mobile's Strategic Marketing Department, revealed that
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Datang Mobile has jointly developed intelligent networked applications in many places across the
country, and in the national intelligent networked car demonstration areas and V2X test
demonstration areas in Xiamen, Hangzhou, and Chongqing. Datang Mobile's C-V2X series of
commercial products have been widely deployed, including roadside units (RSU), on-board units
(OBU), etc., which have been tested to be stable and reliable. At present, Datang Mobile has a
well-established vehicle networking industry chain, especially in terms of in-vehicle V2X terminals,
safe/efficient traffic management, intelligent vehicle perception, and application of big data.
5G + AIoT is another recognized potential scenario. The amount of data in the 5G era has
skyrocketed, and cloud computing pressure has increased sharply. There is an urgent need for
computing power to sink to the edge. Enterprise customers need smart terminals that can
flexibly adapt to various scenarios. Liwei Zhilian and operators cooperate to launch 5G-oriented
Oasis series of intelligent hardware and AIoT + industry solutions. The products use AI to define
scenarios, edge computing, and multi-dimensional sensing fusion to realize the digitalization of
infrastructure equipment in telecommunications, government, power, and industrial industries. ,
Networking and intelligence.
The industry often says that 4G changes life and 5G changes society. In fact, 5G has played a role
in subtleties. In the community + AIoT + 5G scenario, Liwei Zhilian and Shenzhen Telecom jointly
created the Shenzhen Smart Community Pilot Project, which uses 5G, big data, artificial
intelligence and other technologies to intelligently perform various events such as illegal parking
and manhole cover changes in community management. Discovery, wide-narrow linkage, and
closed-loop management to achieve refined and intelligent improvements in community
management. In the new retail + AIoT + 5G scenario, Levi Smartlink and Zhejiang Mobile jointly
created the province's smart business hall project, which carried out a comprehensive analysis of
people, goods, and markets, and used AIoT to build store brains to achieve consumer insights and
accurate services.
May wish to think of the benefits, the more challenging 5G is now, the more revolutionary it will
be in the future.
The butterfly effect of 5G new infrastructure
The value of the network V = K × N2 (K is the value coefficient and N is the number of users)
The value of a network is equal to the square of the number of nodes in the network, and the
value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of users connected to the
network. This is Metcalfe's law that symbolizes the value of the network and the development of
technology.
The above formula is named after the surname of Robert Metcalfe, the pioneer of the computer
network and founder of 3Com. It was proposed in 1993. From the 1990s to the present, the
Internet has shown an exponential growth trend, and it has extensively penetrated and expanded
into various areas of the economy and society. The greater the number of network connections,
the greater its impact on the economy and society.
5G is the first of the new infrastructure and is the technological singularity of the butterfly effect.
Its greatest value lies in its deep integration with digital technologies such as cloud computing,
artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain. These technologies complement each other and
will complement each other. Blind spots in business applications, and this integration itself and its
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integration with the industry are bound to be a slow and long-term process.