Munshi Sulaiman BRAC University and Makerere University Business School

1. Livelihood, Cash Transfer, and
Graduation Approaches:
How Do They Compare in Terms of
Cost, Impact, and Targeting?
Munshi Sulaiman
BRAC University and Makerere University Business School

2. Motivation
• Slowing down of reducing extreme poverty
• Growth alone will miss SDG
• Targeted anti-poverty interventions – many choices
• Cash transfers
• Livelihood development
• Graduation approach

3. Comparing 3 models
Cash Transfers Ultra-poor GraduationLivelihood Promotion

4. Comparing Cost-effectiveness
• Method choice
• Test alternative approaches
in the same setting
• Compare results from
different studies • Issues to consider
• Targeting effectiveness
• Reliability of impact results
• Timeline/sustainability of impact

5. Examples of direct comparison
Sedlemayr et al (2018) in Uganda Chowdhury et al (2017) in South Sudan
20208
13483
-5154
-8453
-10000 0 10000 20000
Full graduation
Graduation without…
Cash with nudge
Unconditional cash
Impact on Annual Income (UGX)

6. Findings from a meta-analysis:
Cost vs. impact

7. Confidence in impact sizes

8. Impact per dollar cost

9. Sustainability of impacts
Bandiera et al (2017) in Bangladesh

10. Summary
• In the short-run, cash is the
best
• Graduation is better in
reaching the extreme poor
• Graduation model is most
compelling on sustainability of
impacts