SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 97
1.040/1.401
Project Management
Spring 2007
Lecture 6
Estimating
Dr. SangHyun Lee
lsh@mit.edu
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Project Management Phase
FEASIBILITY CLOSEOUT
DEVELOPMENT OPERATIONS
Fin.&Eval.
Risk
Estimating
Planning
DESIGN
PLANNING
Organization
Estimation Levels - Introduction
Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
 Different types of estimates are required as a project evolves
 Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates
 Prepared early in the project prior to engineering design completion (e.g., to
tell Owner whether the contemplated project scope is feasible)
 Incorporate new information from design to obtain an updated estimate of
the project
 Detailed Estimates
 Prepared from completed plans and specifications
 Definitive Estimates
 Forecast the project cost within allowable limits from a combination of
conceptual and detailed information often including partial contract and
other procurement awards
Construction
Pre-bid
Detailed
design
Conceptual
design
Feasibility
Detailed Estimates
Definitive
Estimates
Conceptual & Preliminary
Estimates
Design & Estimating Process
Outline
Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates
 Cost indices
 Cost capacity factor
 Parameter Cost
 Detailed Estimates
 Estimates
 Cost classification
 Calculation
Conceptual and Preliminary Estimates
 Decide Feasibility
 Great Variability According to Type
 Categories:
 Time-referenced Cost Indices
 Cost-capacity Factors
 Parameter Costs
Accuracy
Complexity
Outline
 Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates
Cost indices
 Cost capacity factor
 Parameter Cost
 Detailed Estimates
 Estimates
 Cost classification
 Calculation
Cost Indices
Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/
 Show changes of costs over time by upgrading the cost of similar
facilities from the past to the present
Cost indices show the changes of a certain facility’s costs over time
Year 1913 = 100, …Year 2007 = 4432
If Facility A is similar to my ‘wish’ facility and I know the value of Facility A at 1913,
I can assume my ‘wish’ facility’s value at 2007.
Cost Indices
Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/
 Show changes of costs over time by upgrading the cost of similar
facilities from the past to the present
 Used to determine the general construction costs of structures
 Published periodically by Engineering News Record (ENR) and other
publications
 ENR’s Building Cost Index (BCI): Changes of facility’s costs over time
 Facility’s components are:
 1,088 Board Feet of Lumber (2x4, 20-city Average)
 1 Board Feet = 1’ x 1’ x 1” = 144 in3
(e.g., 2×4 - 10 ft long contains [(2×4)×10] × 12] = 960 in3 → 6.67 board feet)
 2500 Pounds of Structural-Steel Shapes (20-city Average, Base Mill Price before 1996,
Fabricated after 1996)
 1.128 Tons of Portland Cement (Bulk, 20-city Average)
 66.38 Hours of Skilled Labor (20-City Average of Bricklayers, Carpenters, and Structural
Ironworkers)
Building Cost Index Data (1990–Date)
Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/
JAN. FEB. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.
ANNUAL
AVG.
1990 2664 2668 2673 2676 2691 2715 2716 2716 2730 2728 2730 2720 2702
1991 2720 2716 2715 2709 2723 2733 2757 2792 2785 2786 2791 2784 2751
1992 2784 2775 2799 2809 2828 2838 2845 2854 2857 2867 2873 2875 2834
1993 2886 2886 2915 2976 3071 3066 3038 3014 3009 3016 3029 3046 2996
1994 3071 3106 3116 3127 3125 3115 3107 3109 3116 3116 3109 3110 3111
1995 3112 3111 3103 3100 3096 3095 3114 3121 3109 3117 3131 3128 3111
1996 3127 3131 3135 3148 3161 3178 3190 3223 3246 3284 3304 3311 3203
1997 3332 3333 3323 3364 3377 3396 3392 3385 3378 3372 3350 3370 3364
1998 3363 3372 3368 3375 3374 3379 3382 3391 3414 3423 3424 3419 3391
1999 3425 3417 3411 3421 3422 3433 3460 3474 3504 3505 3498 3497 3456
JAN. FEB. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.
ANNUAL
AVG.
2000 3503 3523 3536 3534 3558 3553 3545 3546 3539 3547 3541 3548 3539
2001 3545 3536 3541 3541 3547 3572 3625 3605 3597 3602 3596 3577 3574
2002 3581 3581 3597 3583 3612 3624 3652 3648 3655 3651 3654 3640 3623
2003 3648 3655 3649 3652 3660 3677 3684 3712 3717 3745 3766 3758 3694
2004 3767 3802 3859 3908 3955 3996 4013 4027 4103 4129 4128 4123 3984
2005 4112 4116 4127 4167 4188 4194 4196 4209 4218 4265 4312 4329 4203
2006 4333 4338 4330 4335 4332 4340
Base: 1913=100
2007 4432
Building Cost Index Data (Prior to 1990)
Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/
Cost Indices Time Conversion
 Example:
 Warehouse Estimate: Assume you have an estimate to a similar warehouse
located nearby and completed in 1993 for a cost of $4,200,000. We are
planning to build a new warehouse in Feb. of 2007. The Building Cost
Index from ENR for 1993, relative to the base date of 1913, was 2996%
and Building Cost Index from ENR for Feb. 2007 is 4432%. What is the
estimated project cost if you establish the estimate using Building Cost
Index from ENR?
Adapted from: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
Cost Indices Time Conversion
 What Information Do We Need?
 Current Building Cost Index (Feb. 2007) = 4432
 Building Cost Index for Year 1993 = 2996
 Similar Facility’s Cost at Year 1993 = $4,200,000
 We Convert From One Base Period to Another
 2996 : $4,200,000 = 4432 : $X
 $X = (4432/2996) * $4,200,000 = $6,213,084
Adapted from: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
Cost Indices Component Calculations
 ENR’s Construction Cost Index:
 Used when labor costs are a high proportion of total cost
 Components:
 1,088 Board Feet of Lumber (2x4, 20-city Average)
 1 Board Feet = 1’ x 1’ x 1” = 144 in3
 2,500 Pounds of Structural-Steel Shapes (20-city Average, Base Mill Price Before
1996, Fabricated after 1996)
 1.128 Tons of Portland Cement (Bulk, 20-city Average)
 200 Hours of Common Labor (20-city Average)
Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/
costIndexes/constIndexHist.asp
Cost Indices Use and Accuracy
 Accuracies Within 20% to 30% of Actual Costs
 Negligible Time and Effort
 Valuable for Preliminary Planning
Cost Indices - Limitations
Adapted from: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
 Problems could arise if the proportions of the input components (e.g.,
lumber) in a building type cost index do not reflect the resources used on the
project in question
 E.g., about 40 % of the costs in a petrochemical project is in piping (pipe and pipe
fitters)
 Problems could arise if the project on which the Index is based has very little
in common with the project under consideration
 Some types of indices do not consider factors such as: productivity, changes
in technology, and competitiveness of contractors
Outline
 Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates
Cost indices
Cost capacity factor
 Parameter Cost
 Detailed Estimates
 Estimates
 Cost classification
 Calculation
Cost-Capacity Factor
 Apply to changes in size, scope, or capacity of projects of
similar types
 Reflect the nonlinear increase in cost with size (economies
of scale, learning curves)
 C2 = C1 (Q2/Q1) x
 Where
 C2 = estimated cost of the new facility w/capacity Q2
 C1 = known cost of facility of capacity Q1
 x = the cost-capacity factor for this type of work
Cost-Capacity Factor
Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
 Q is a parameter that reasonably reflects the size of the facility
(e.g., barrels per day produced by a refinery, tons of steel per day
produced by a steel mill, gross floor area for a warehouse)
 X is an empirically derived factor based on well-documented
historical records for a variety of different types of projects
Cost-Capacity Factor Example
 Example Revisit:
 Warehouse Estimate: Assume you have an estimate to a similar warehouse
located nearby and completed in 1993 for a cost of $4,200,000. We are
planning to build a new warehouse in Feb. of 2007. The ENR index for
1993, relative to the base date of 1913, was 2996% and the ENR index for
2007 is 4432%.
 Consider the cost-capacity factor x = 0.8 for a warehouse.
 The above warehouse has a usable area of 120,000 square feet
 The prospective owner for the new warehouse wants a structure with a
usable area of 150,000 square feet
Cost-Capacity Factor Example
 What Information Do We Need?
 Q2/Q1 = 150,000/120,000 = 1.25
 Cost-capacity factor x = 0.8
 Known cost = $4,200,000
 C2 = $4,200,000 * (1.25)0.8 = $5,020,851
 A 25% more capacity implies only 20% more costs
Combining Cost Indices & Cost-
Capacity Factor
 Combine Cost Indices & Cost Capacity Factors to take into
account changes in both time & capacity
 C2 = C1 (Ib / Ia) (Q2 / Q1)x
 Where
 Ib = Index number “Now” or present time.
 Ia = Index number at that time
Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
Cost Indices & Cost-Capacity Factor
Example
 Example Revisit:
 Warehouse Estimate: Assume you have an estimate to a similar warehouse
located nearby and completed in 1993 for a cost of $4,200,000. We are
planning to build a new warehouse in Feb. of 2007. The ENR index for
1993, relative to the base date of 1913, was 2996% and the ENR index for
2007 is 4432%.
 Consider the cost-capacity factor x = 0.8 for a warehouse.
 The above warehouse has a usable area of 120,000 square feet
 The prospective owner for the new warehouse wants a structure with a
usable area of 150,000 square feet
 C2 = 4,200,000 * (4432/2996) * (150,000/120,000)0.8 = $7,188,731
Cost Indices & Cost-Capacity Factor
Example
Outline
 Conceptual Estimates
Cost indices
Cost capacity factor
Parameter Cost
 Detailed Estimates
 Estimates
 Cost classification
 Calculation
Parameter Costs Source Data
 Commonly used in building construction
 ENR “Quarterly Cost Roundup”
 R.S. Means “Means Square Foot Costs”
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Costs Characteristics
Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
 Relates all costs of a project to just a few physical measures,
or “Parameters”, that reflect the size or scope of the project
 E.g., warehouse - the “Parameter” would be “Gross Enclosed Floor
Area”
 all costs represented by X ($/S.F) → total cost = X ($/S.F.) × the
project’s gross enclosed floor area (S.F.)
 With good historical records on comparable structures,
parameter costing can give reasonable levels of accuracy for
preliminary estimates
Means Square Foot Cost
 Costs per Square Foot
 Type of Facility (total 23,000 S.F apartment with 3 stories)
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Story Height = 10’ and No Basement
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
23,000 S.F
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
23,000 S.F
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Exterior
wall
variation
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Exterior
wall
variation
Base Cost =
129.65 $/S.F
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Perimeter
&
Height
Adjustment
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Perimeter
&
Height
Adjustment
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Basement
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Additives
 Costs per S.F. of Floor Area
Means Square Foot Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Means Square Foot Cost
 Information: Detail Specs for the Cost
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Means Square Foot Cost
 Information: Sub-total, Fees, and Total
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
 What is the Cost for an apartment building (7 Story) if the
perimeter of the building is 502 L.F. and the story height is
11’-4”? Assume that the apartment building has decorative
concrete block on the east, west & south walls. The north
walls external finish is brick with concrete block backup.
The area of each floor of the apartment building 11,460 S.F.
The basement floor area s 4,200 S.F. Please use the Means
Square Foot Cost to obtain an estimate. The building frame
is steel. The apartment building is located in Atlantic City,
New Jersey, Zip Code 07410.
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
60’ × 191’
 Characteristics of the Apartment Building
 60’ x 191’ = 11,460 S.F./Floor
 2 * [191’ + 60’] = 502 L.F. Perimeter
 7 Floors
 Exterior Walls:
 North wall: Face brick w/ concrete block backup
 East, West & South walls: Decorative Concrete Block
 Story Height: 11’-4”
 Basement Area: 4,200 S.F
 Steel Frame
 Located in Atlantic City, New Jersey, Zip Code 07410
 Coefficients are determined from Model Number M.020 for Apartment,
4-7 Story type (Refer to RS Means (2006) - Square Foot Costs, page 80)
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
RS Means (2006) – Square
Foot Costs, Page 80
Choose
type
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
RS Means (2006) – Square
Foot Costs, Page 80
S.F. Area = 11,460 * 7 = 80220
L.F. Perimeter = 502
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
 What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established
by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?
 Exterior Wall Variation
 Perimeter Adjustment
 Story Height Adjustment
 Basement Addition
 Location Modifier
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Basic SF Costs for 80,000 S.F
apartment building with Face Brick
w/ Concrete Block Backup
Basic SF Costs for 80,000 S.F
apartment building with Decorative
Concrete Block
Parameter Cost Example
 Basic SF Cost in R.S. Means for S.F Area=80000, L.F Perimeter = 530, Story
Height = 10’ & No Basement
 $128.35/SF when exterior walls are Brick w/ Concrete Block Backup (North)
 $122.25/SF when exterior walls are Decorative Concrete Block (East, West, south)
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
N
 Basic SF Cost in R.S. Means for S.F Area=80000, L.F Perimeter = 530, Story
Height = 10’ & No Basement
 $128.35/SF when exterior walls are Brick w/ Concrete Block Backup (North)
 $122.25/SF when exterior walls are Decorative Concrete Block (East, West, south)
 North wall makes up:
 [191’/502’] x 100 = 38.04 % of total building perimeter
 East, West & South walls make up:
 [(191’+2x60’)/502’] x 100 = 61.96 % of total building perimeter
 Exterior Wall Variation
 [$128.35 * 38.04%] + [$122.25 * 61.96%] = $124.6/S.F.
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
 What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established
by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?
 Exterior Wall Variation
 Perimeter Adjustment
 Story Height Adjustment
 Basement Addition
 Location Modifier
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Perimeter & Height
Adjustment Factors
RS Means (2006) – Square
Foot Costs, Page 80
Parameter Cost Example
 Exterior Wall Variation :
 [$128.35 * 38.04%] + [$122.25 * 61.96%] = $124.6/S.F.
 Perimeter Adjustment:
 Apartment building perimeter is 28 L.F (530 -502) less than the M.020 model building in RS Means
 Perimeter adjustment factor: $2.65 per 100 L.F
 $124.6 – ( $2.65/100 L.F * 28 L.F ) = $123.9/S.F
 Height Adjustment:
 Apartment building story height is 1’ 4” (11’ 4’’-10’) more than the M.020 model building in RS Means
 Height adjustment factor: $1.20 per ft
 $123.9 + $1.20 * 1.3 = $125.5/S.F.
 Apartment Building initial total cost: $125.5 * 80,220 S.F = $10,067,610
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
 What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established
by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?
 Exterior Wall Variation
 Perimeter Adjustment
 Story Height Adjustment
 Basement Addition
 Location Modifier
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Basement Addition Factor
RS Means (2006) – Square
Foot Costs, Page 80
Parameter Cost Example
 Apartment Building initial total cost: $125.5 * 80,220 S.F = $10,067,610
 Basement Addition:
 Apartment building has 4,200 S.F basement
 Basement Addition Factor: $27.30 per S.F of basement area
 Basement added cost : $10,067,610 + $27.30 * 4,200 S.F = $10,182,270
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
 What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established
by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?
 Exterior Wall Variation
 Perimeter Adjustment
 Story Height Adjustment
 Basement Addition
 Location Modifier
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Location Modifier
RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 455
Parameter Cost Example
 Basement Addition:
 $10,182,270
 Location Modifier for Residential Bldg: 1.13 (Refer to RS Means (2006) -
Square Foot Costs, page 455)
 Apartment building modified total cost: $10,182,270 * 1.13 = $ 11,505,965
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
Parameter Cost Example
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
 What is the Cost for an apartment building (7 Story) if the
perimeter of the building is 502 L.F. and the story height is
11’-4”? Assume that the apartment building has decorative
concrete block on the east, west & south walls. The north
walls external finish is brick with concrete block backup.
The area of each floor of the apartment building 11,460 S.F.
The basement floor area s 4,200 S.F. Please use the Means
Square Foot Cost to obtain an estimate. The building frame
is steel with an observed age of 20 years. The apartment
building is located in Atlantic City, New Jersey, Zip Code
07410.
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
 What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established by using the
Means Square Foot Cost Method?
 Exterior Wall Variation
 Perimeter Adjustment
 Story Height Adjustment
 Basement Addition
 Location Modifier
 Depreciation Adjustment
Parameter Cost Example
RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 228
Depreciation
Adjustment Factor
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
 Location Modifier for Residential Building
 $ 11,505,965
 Depreciation Adjustment for steel frame building with 20 year observed
age: 20 % (Refer to RS Means (2006) - Square Foot Costs, page 228)
 Depreciation Amount: 0.2 * $ 11,505,965 = $ 2,301,193
 Total Existing Building Cost: $ 11,505,965 - $ 2,301,193 = $9,204,772
Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
Parameter Cost Example
Outline
Conceptual Estimates
Cost indices
Cost capacity factor
Parameter Cost
Detailed Estimates
Estimates
 Cost classification
 Calculation
Estimation Levels - Revisit
Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
 Different types of estimates are required as a project evolves
 Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates
 Prepared early in the project prior to engineering design completion (to tell
Owner whether the contemplated project scope is feasible)
 Incorporate new information from design to obtain an updated estimate of
the project
 Detailed Estimates
 Prepared from completed plans and specifications
 Definitive Estimates
 Forecast the project cost within allowable limits from a combination of
conceptual and detailed information often including partial contract and
other procurement awards
Construction
Pre-bid
Detailed
design
Conceptual
design
Feasibility
Detailed Estimates
Definitive
Estimates
Conceptual & Preliminary
Estimates
Design & Estimating Process
Important General Lesson
 Precision in detailed estimates does not mean accuracy!
 More an art than a science
 Detailed quantitative estimates possible – but ignore important qualitative factors
 Have differing ranges of uncertainties
 Actual costs depend on systemic complexity
 Two types of complexity at issue
 Detail complexity (myriad components required)
 System complexity (dynamic interactions, etc.)
 Always consider:
 What are assumptions behind the estimate?
 What factors are being ignored?
 How might these factors change the estimate?
Detailed Estimates
 After most or all of the detail design work is complete,
approximate estimates are refined using detailed estimates
 Engineer’s Detailed Estimates
 Bid Detailed Estimates
Construction
Pre-bid
Detailed
design
Conceptual
design
Feasibility
Detailed Estimates
Definitive
Estimates
Conceptual & Preliminary
Estimates
Design & Estimating Process
Engineer’s
Engineer’s Detailed Estimates
 Part of actual bid documents
 Who? - owner, consultant, CM, or design-build team
 Use unit prices databases
 Estimate = Σ [Quantity] × [Unit Prices]
 RS Means or other sources
 Unit prices as result of average industry standards
Engineer’s Detailed Estimates
Source: RS Means, Building Construction Cost Data, 2006
RS Means (2006) – Building Construction Cost Data, Page 84
Unit price (RS Means) = Mat. + Lab. + Equip. + Overhead + Profit
Engineer’s Detailed Estimates
 Part of actual bid documents
 Who? – owner, consultant, or CM
 Use unit prices databases
 Estimate = Σ[Quantity] × [Unit Prices]
 RS Means or other sources
 Unit prices as result of average industry standards
 No lump-sum subcontract quotations
 May be simplified number of line items (e.g., mark-up: not detailed)
Engineer’s Breakdown - Example
 Building
 Foundations
 Piles
 Concrete foundations
 Steel erection
 Structural steel
 Columns
 Beams
 Detail steel
 Concrete decks
 Stairs
Construction
Pre-bid
Detailed
design
Conceptual
design
Feasibility
Detailed Estimates
Definitive
Estimates
Conceptual & Preliminary
Estimates
Design & Estimating Process
Engineer’s Bid
Bid Detailed Estimates
 Contractor’s estimate low enough to obtain the work, yet high enough to make
profit
 Who? – contractor
 More detail depending upon the contractor’s own procedures
 Overall unit prices (past) → detailed categories (present)
 Often relies on
 Historical productivity data for company
 Intuition on speed of movement
 Quantity takeoff for most important items
 Subcontractor bids
 Sometimes less detailed than engineer’s estimates - subcontractors from 30% to 80% of
the project
Bid Breakdown – Example
 Building (Bid estimates)
 Piles (material take-off)
 Concrete subcontract (lump-sum)
 Steel erection subcontract (lump-sum)
 Building (Engineer’s estimates)
 Foundations
 Piles
 Concrete foundations
 Steel erection
 Structural steel
 Columns
 Beams
 Detail steel
 Concrete decks
 Stairs
Bid Detailed Estimates
 Is estimating a streamlined process?
A look at bids received for a typical project in a competitive area will
sometimes show more than 50% difference between the low and the high
bidders
Estimation Levels - Revisit
Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
 Different types of estimates are required as a project evolves
 Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates
 Prepared early in the project prior to engineering design completion (to tell
Owner whether the contemplated project scope is feasible)
 Incorporate new information from design to obtain an updated estimate of
the project
 Detailed Estimates
 Prepared from completed plans and specifications
 Definitive Estimates
 Forecast the project cost within allowable limits from a combination
of conceptual and detailed information often including partial
contract and other procurement awards
Construction
Pre-bid
Detailed
design
Conceptual
design
Feasibility
Detailed Estimates
Definitive
Estimates
Conceptual & Preliminary
Estimates
Design & Estimating Process
Definitive Estimates
 There comes a time when a definitive estimate can be prepared that will forecast
the final project cost with little margin for error…
 This error can be minimized through the proper addition of an evaluated
contingency
 Engineer’s estimates can complete this process
 The proper time to classify an estimate as ‘definitive’ will vary according to the
characteristics of the project. For example:
 Traditional
 Unit-price
 Professional CM
 Design-Build
Definitive Estimates:
Traditional & Unit Price
Start Contract
Detailed design
Preliminary design
Start Contract
Detailed design
Preliminary design
 DBB definitive estimate
 Unit Price definitive estimate
Definitive Estimates:
CM & Design-Build
Start Contract
Detailed design
Preliminary design
Start Contract
Detailed design
Preliminary design
 CM definitive estimate
 Design-Build definitive estimate
Outline
Conceptual Estimates
Cost indices
Cost capacity factor
Parameter Cost
 Detailed Estimates
Estimates
Cost classification
 Calculation
Cost Classification
 Direct Cost
 Labor Cost
 Direct Labor
 Indirect Labor
 Material Cost
 Equipment Cost
 Subcontractor Price
 Indirect Cost (i.e., Job Overhead)
 Project Overhead
 Markup
 General Overhead
 Profit
 Contingency
Source: Shtub et al., 1994
Cost Classification - Direct Cost
 Labor Cost
 Direct Labor Cost
 Difficult to evaluate precisely but all effort is done to get an accurate estimate as possible
 Greatest amount of uncertainty in project estimation
 Indirect Labor Cost
 Costs that are additional to the basic hourly rates (e.g., tax, insurance, fringe benefits)
 Substantial in amount: add 25 to 50 percent to direct labor costs
 Commonly used approach adds indirect labor costs as a percentage to the total direct labor costs or for
each major work category
 Material Cost
 All materials that are utilized in the finished structure.
 Equipment Cost
 Costs Includes: ownership, lease or rental expenses, and operating costs
 Subcontractor Price
 Includes quotations from all subcontractors working on the project
 Quotations submitted by the subcontractor usually require extensive review by the general
contractor’s estimator to determine what they include & do not include
Source: Clough et al., 2005; Barrie & Paulson, 1992
Source: Clough et al., 2005
Cost Classification – Indirect Cost
 Project Overhead (i.e., Job Overhead)
 Costs that do not pertain directly to any given construction work
 Generally constitutes 5-15 percent of the total project cost
 Costs computed by listing & evaluating each item of overhead individually
 Examples of typical items included:
 Job Mobilization, Project Manager, General Superintendent, Nonworking Foremen, Heat,
Utilities, Storage Buildings, Field Office Supplies, Job Telephone, Computer Equipment &
Software, Computer Networking & Internet Connectivity, Small Tools, Permits & Fees,
Special Insurance, Builder’s Risk Insurance, Security Clearances, Material & Load Tests,
Storage Area Rental, Protection of Adjoining Property, Field Offices, Parking Areas, Legal
Expenses, Surveys, Engineering Services.
Source: Clough et al., 2005
Cost Classification – Markup
 Markup
 Added at the close of the estimating process
 Varies between 5 to 20 percent of the job cost
 Reflects the contractor’s appraisal of the probability of being the lowest
bidder for the project & the chances of making a reasonable profit
 Factors considered when deciding on a job markup include: project size &
complexity, provisions of the contract documents, difficulties inherent in
the work, identities of the owner & architect/engineer
 Include allowance for:
 General Overhead or Office Overhead
 Includes costs that are incurred to support the overall company construction program
 Normally included in the bid as a percentage of the total estimated job cost
 Examples of general business expenses include: office rent, office insurance, heat, electricity,
office supplies, furniture, telephone & internet, legal expenses, donations, advertising, travel,
association dues, and the salaries of executives & office employees
 Profit
 Contingency
Cost Classification (Example)
Source: Clough et al., 2005
Bid Estimates = Direct Cost + Overhead + Markup (including Firm Overhead)
Cost Classification (Example)
Source: Clough et al., 2005
Bid Estimates = Direct Cost + Overhead + Markup (including Firm Overhead)
× 1.24
Outline
Conceptual Estimates
Cost indices
Cost capacity factor
Parameter Cost
 Detailed Estimates
Estimates
Cost classification
Calculation
Detailed Estimates - Methodology
 Stage 1: Quantity takeoff
 Decomposition into items, measurement of quantities
 Challenges: tremendous detail complexity
 Stage 2: Direct Cost contribution
 Σ[Quantity] × [Unit Price]
 Challenge: determination unit price (based on historical data)
 Example:
Item unit quantity Unit price price
Reinforced steel lb 6,300 0.60 $ 3,780
Labor Costs
 Categorized Bid Estimate (not overall unit prices)
 Basic Unit Labor Cost = P / LP ($/unit)
 P = Price of all money elements ($/hours)
 LP = Labor Productivity (units/hour)
 Total Labor Cost = Q * P/LP
 Q = Total quantity of work
 Estimation of labor costs particularly tricky
 Prices: In United States, highly detail intensive
 Productivity: Many qualitative components
Labor Cost - Prices Related
 Components
 Wages (varies by area, seniority, …)
 Insurance (varies w/contractor record, work type)
 Social security benefits
 Fringe benefits (health…)
 Wage premiums (e.g., overtime, shift-work differentials, hazardous work)
Labor Cost - Productivity
 Difficult but critical
 High importance of qualitative factors (environment, morale, fatigue,
learning, etc)
 The primary means by which to control labor costs
 Historical data available
 Firm updated database
 Department of Labor, professional organizations, state governments
= P / LP ($/unit)
Productivity Considerations
 Considerations
 Location of jobsite (local skill base, jurisdiction rules – hiring & firing)
 Learning curves
 Work schedule (overtime, shift work)
 Weather
 Environment
 Location on jobsite, noise, proximity to materials
 Management style (e.g., incentive)
 Worksite rules
Learning Curves
Particularly useful for repetitive works
Productivity Effects of Overtime
Concluding Remarks
 Functions of Estimating
 Could Assess cost of construction from the conceptual design phase
(Owner, Designer & Sometimes Contractor ). Feedback to
 Conceptual Design for Alternative Architecture
 Feasibility of the Project
 Project / Company Alignment of Objectives, Constraints, Strategic
Goals and Policies
 Provide the basis for bidding & contracting (Contractor)
 Provide a baseline for cost control and post project evaluation
(Owner & Contractor)
Concluding Remarks
 In Converting an Estimate to a Control Budget, Consider:
 The organization and categorization of costs suitable for preparing an
estimate are often not compatible with realistic field cost control (e.g.,
might be convenient for the owner)
 Estimates necessarily deal in averages, whereas tighter standards are
sometimes desirable for control purposes

More Related Content

Similar to Lecture_6_Estimating.ppt

Irjet v5 i6276
Irjet v5 i6276Irjet v5 i6276
Irjet v5 i6276KumaGTola
 
Steel building Graded Unit Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...
Steel building Graded Unit  Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...Steel building Graded Unit  Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...
Steel building Graded Unit Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...Tehmas Saeed
 
Structural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete Structure
Structural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete StructureStructural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete Structure
Structural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete StructureIJERA Editor
 
IES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L Clinic
IES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L ClinicIES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L Clinic
IES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L ClinicIES VE
 
L1 Planning for Earthwork Construction
L1 Planning for Earthwork ConstructionL1 Planning for Earthwork Construction
L1 Planning for Earthwork ConstructionDon W. Lewis
 
"Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles"
"Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles""Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles"
"Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles"Remedy Geotechnics Ltd
 
Estimation (power Point).ppt
Estimation (power Point).pptEstimation (power Point).ppt
Estimation (power Point).pptNaumanIjaz12
 
Amstel III the Reuse City- Dominik Lukkes
Amstel III the Reuse City- Dominik LukkesAmstel III the Reuse City- Dominik Lukkes
Amstel III the Reuse City- Dominik LukkesNRP
 
“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”
“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”
“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”IRJET Journal
 
Embodied Energy In Building Construction
Embodied Energy In Building ConstructionEmbodied Energy In Building Construction
Embodied Energy In Building ConstructionSandeep Jaiswal
 
COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE
COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETECOST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE
COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETEIRJET Journal
 
Optimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder Bridge
Optimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder BridgeOptimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder Bridge
Optimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder BridgeIRJET Journal
 
IRJET- Analysis of Diagrid Structure
IRJET-  	  Analysis of Diagrid StructureIRJET-  	  Analysis of Diagrid Structure
IRJET- Analysis of Diagrid StructureIRJET Journal
 
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof StructureLarge Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof StructureIOSR Journals
 
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof StructureLarge Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof StructureIOSR Journals
 
Examples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John Furlong
Examples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John FurlongExamples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John Furlong
Examples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John FurlongSustainableEnergyAut
 

Similar to Lecture_6_Estimating.ppt (20)

Irjet v5 i6276
Irjet v5 i6276Irjet v5 i6276
Irjet v5 i6276
 
Steel building Graded Unit Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...
Steel building Graded Unit  Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...Steel building Graded Unit  Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...
Steel building Graded Unit Civil Engineering Project HND Project Glasgow Kel...
 
Structural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete Structure
Structural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete StructureStructural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete Structure
Structural Design and Rehabilitation of Reinforced Concrete Structure
 
IES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L Clinic
IES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L ClinicIES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L Clinic
IES Faculty - IESVE as a Design Application & Part L Clinic
 
L1 Planning for Earthwork Construction
L1 Planning for Earthwork ConstructionL1 Planning for Earthwork Construction
L1 Planning for Earthwork Construction
 
"Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles"
"Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles""Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles"
"Real-time Validation of Driven Cast-In-Situ Piles"
 
Estimation (power Point).ppt
Estimation (power Point).pptEstimation (power Point).ppt
Estimation (power Point).ppt
 
Amstel III the Reuse City- Dominik Lukkes
Amstel III the Reuse City- Dominik LukkesAmstel III the Reuse City- Dominik Lukkes
Amstel III the Reuse City- Dominik Lukkes
 
“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”
“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”
“ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF PRE ENGINEERED BUILDING FOR INDUSTRIAL SHED IN CHAKAN”
 
Embodied Energy In Building Construction
Embodied Energy In Building ConstructionEmbodied Energy In Building Construction
Embodied Energy In Building Construction
 
4.2 square foot estimating
4.2 square foot estimating4.2 square foot estimating
4.2 square foot estimating
 
COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE
COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETECOST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE
COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH PERFORMANCE CONCRETE
 
Optimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder Bridge
Optimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder BridgeOptimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder Bridge
Optimization of Precast Post-tensioned Concrete I-Girder Bridge
 
IRJET- Analysis of Diagrid Structure
IRJET-  	  Analysis of Diagrid StructureIRJET-  	  Analysis of Diagrid Structure
IRJET- Analysis of Diagrid Structure
 
1. Small house calculations.pdf
1. Small house calculations.pdf1. Small house calculations.pdf
1. Small house calculations.pdf
 
Small House Calculations
Small House CalculationsSmall House Calculations
Small House Calculations
 
A012140107
A012140107A012140107
A012140107
 
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof StructureLarge Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
 
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof StructureLarge Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
Large Span Lattice Frame Industrial Roof Structure
 
Examples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John Furlong
Examples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John FurlongExamples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John Furlong
Examples of NZEB in the Public Sector by John Furlong
 

Recently uploaded

💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...
💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...
💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...Cara Menggugurkan Kandungan 087776558899
 
Namakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Namakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLNamakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Namakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLkantirani197
 
Prince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral service
Prince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral servicePrince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral service
Prince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral serviceednyonat
 
Hosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Hosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLHosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Hosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLkantirani197
 
BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...
BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...
BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...poojas707976
 
BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...
BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...
BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...poojas707976
 

Recently uploaded (10)

💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...
💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...
💊💊 OBAT PENGGUGUR KANDUNGAN JAMBI 08776558899 ATAU CARA GUGURKAN JANIN KLINIK...
 
9565589233 Whatsapp Free Nude Video Call Service Porn Girls Porn Videos
9565589233 Whatsapp Free Nude Video Call Service Porn Girls Porn Videos9565589233 Whatsapp Free Nude Video Call Service Porn Girls Porn Videos
9565589233 Whatsapp Free Nude Video Call Service Porn Girls Porn Videos
 
KHORDHA ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO HA...
KHORDHA ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO HA...KHORDHA ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO HA...
KHORDHA ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO HA...
 
Namakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Namakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLNamakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Namakkal ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Namakkal ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
 
Prince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral service
Prince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral servicePrince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral service
Prince Armahs(Tinky) Brochure, for Funeral service
 
Hosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Hosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLHosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
Hosur ❤CALL GIRL 84099*07087 ❤CALL GIRLS IN Hosur ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
 
BHUBANESWAR CALL GIRL IN SEIRVEC ODIA ❣️72051SIYA37929❣️ CASH PAYMENT ONLY CA...
BHUBANESWAR CALL GIRL IN SEIRVEC ODIA ❣️72051SIYA37929❣️ CASH PAYMENT ONLY CA...BHUBANESWAR CALL GIRL IN SEIRVEC ODIA ❣️72051SIYA37929❣️ CASH PAYMENT ONLY CA...
BHUBANESWAR CALL GIRL IN SEIRVEC ODIA ❣️72051SIYA37929❣️ CASH PAYMENT ONLY CA...
 
BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...
BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...
BHADRAK Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Servi...
 
KENDUJHAR ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO ...
KENDUJHAR ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO ...KENDUJHAR ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO ...
KENDUJHAR ODIA CALL GIRL SEIRVEC ❣️ 72051//37929❣️ CALL GIRL IN ODIA HAND TO ...
 
BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...
BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...
BERHAMPUR Call Girls JAMSHEDPUR Just Call 93480*64116 Top Class Call Girl Ser...
 

Lecture_6_Estimating.ppt

  • 1. 1.040/1.401 Project Management Spring 2007 Lecture 6 Estimating Dr. SangHyun Lee lsh@mit.edu Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • 2. Project Management Phase FEASIBILITY CLOSEOUT DEVELOPMENT OPERATIONS Fin.&Eval. Risk Estimating Planning DESIGN PLANNING Organization
  • 3. Estimation Levels - Introduction Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992  Different types of estimates are required as a project evolves  Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates  Prepared early in the project prior to engineering design completion (e.g., to tell Owner whether the contemplated project scope is feasible)  Incorporate new information from design to obtain an updated estimate of the project  Detailed Estimates  Prepared from completed plans and specifications  Definitive Estimates  Forecast the project cost within allowable limits from a combination of conceptual and detailed information often including partial contract and other procurement awards
  • 5. Outline Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates  Cost indices  Cost capacity factor  Parameter Cost  Detailed Estimates  Estimates  Cost classification  Calculation
  • 6. Conceptual and Preliminary Estimates  Decide Feasibility  Great Variability According to Type  Categories:  Time-referenced Cost Indices  Cost-capacity Factors  Parameter Costs Accuracy Complexity
  • 7. Outline  Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates Cost indices  Cost capacity factor  Parameter Cost  Detailed Estimates  Estimates  Cost classification  Calculation
  • 8. Cost Indices Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/  Show changes of costs over time by upgrading the cost of similar facilities from the past to the present Cost indices show the changes of a certain facility’s costs over time Year 1913 = 100, …Year 2007 = 4432 If Facility A is similar to my ‘wish’ facility and I know the value of Facility A at 1913, I can assume my ‘wish’ facility’s value at 2007.
  • 9. Cost Indices Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/  Show changes of costs over time by upgrading the cost of similar facilities from the past to the present  Used to determine the general construction costs of structures  Published periodically by Engineering News Record (ENR) and other publications  ENR’s Building Cost Index (BCI): Changes of facility’s costs over time  Facility’s components are:  1,088 Board Feet of Lumber (2x4, 20-city Average)  1 Board Feet = 1’ x 1’ x 1” = 144 in3 (e.g., 2×4 - 10 ft long contains [(2×4)×10] × 12] = 960 in3 → 6.67 board feet)  2500 Pounds of Structural-Steel Shapes (20-city Average, Base Mill Price before 1996, Fabricated after 1996)  1.128 Tons of Portland Cement (Bulk, 20-city Average)  66.38 Hours of Skilled Labor (20-City Average of Bricklayers, Carpenters, and Structural Ironworkers)
  • 10. Building Cost Index Data (1990–Date) Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/ JAN. FEB. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL AVG. 1990 2664 2668 2673 2676 2691 2715 2716 2716 2730 2728 2730 2720 2702 1991 2720 2716 2715 2709 2723 2733 2757 2792 2785 2786 2791 2784 2751 1992 2784 2775 2799 2809 2828 2838 2845 2854 2857 2867 2873 2875 2834 1993 2886 2886 2915 2976 3071 3066 3038 3014 3009 3016 3029 3046 2996 1994 3071 3106 3116 3127 3125 3115 3107 3109 3116 3116 3109 3110 3111 1995 3112 3111 3103 3100 3096 3095 3114 3121 3109 3117 3131 3128 3111 1996 3127 3131 3135 3148 3161 3178 3190 3223 3246 3284 3304 3311 3203 1997 3332 3333 3323 3364 3377 3396 3392 3385 3378 3372 3350 3370 3364 1998 3363 3372 3368 3375 3374 3379 3382 3391 3414 3423 3424 3419 3391 1999 3425 3417 3411 3421 3422 3433 3460 3474 3504 3505 3498 3497 3456 JAN. FEB. MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL AVG. 2000 3503 3523 3536 3534 3558 3553 3545 3546 3539 3547 3541 3548 3539 2001 3545 3536 3541 3541 3547 3572 3625 3605 3597 3602 3596 3577 3574 2002 3581 3581 3597 3583 3612 3624 3652 3648 3655 3651 3654 3640 3623 2003 3648 3655 3649 3652 3660 3677 3684 3712 3717 3745 3766 3758 3694 2004 3767 3802 3859 3908 3955 3996 4013 4027 4103 4129 4128 4123 3984 2005 4112 4116 4127 4167 4188 4194 4196 4209 4218 4265 4312 4329 4203 2006 4333 4338 4330 4335 4332 4340 Base: 1913=100 2007 4432
  • 11. Building Cost Index Data (Prior to 1990) Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/
  • 12. Cost Indices Time Conversion  Example:  Warehouse Estimate: Assume you have an estimate to a similar warehouse located nearby and completed in 1993 for a cost of $4,200,000. We are planning to build a new warehouse in Feb. of 2007. The Building Cost Index from ENR for 1993, relative to the base date of 1913, was 2996% and Building Cost Index from ENR for Feb. 2007 is 4432%. What is the estimated project cost if you establish the estimate using Building Cost Index from ENR? Adapted from: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
  • 13. Cost Indices Time Conversion  What Information Do We Need?  Current Building Cost Index (Feb. 2007) = 4432  Building Cost Index for Year 1993 = 2996  Similar Facility’s Cost at Year 1993 = $4,200,000  We Convert From One Base Period to Another  2996 : $4,200,000 = 4432 : $X  $X = (4432/2996) * $4,200,000 = $6,213,084 Adapted from: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
  • 14. Cost Indices Component Calculations  ENR’s Construction Cost Index:  Used when labor costs are a high proportion of total cost  Components:  1,088 Board Feet of Lumber (2x4, 20-city Average)  1 Board Feet = 1’ x 1’ x 1” = 144 in3  2,500 Pounds of Structural-Steel Shapes (20-city Average, Base Mill Price Before 1996, Fabricated after 1996)  1.128 Tons of Portland Cement (Bulk, 20-city Average)  200 Hours of Common Labor (20-city Average) Source: http://www.enr.com/features/conEco/ costIndexes/constIndexHist.asp
  • 15. Cost Indices Use and Accuracy  Accuracies Within 20% to 30% of Actual Costs  Negligible Time and Effort  Valuable for Preliminary Planning
  • 16. Cost Indices - Limitations Adapted from: Barrie & Paulson, 1992  Problems could arise if the proportions of the input components (e.g., lumber) in a building type cost index do not reflect the resources used on the project in question  E.g., about 40 % of the costs in a petrochemical project is in piping (pipe and pipe fitters)  Problems could arise if the project on which the Index is based has very little in common with the project under consideration  Some types of indices do not consider factors such as: productivity, changes in technology, and competitiveness of contractors
  • 17. Outline  Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates Cost indices Cost capacity factor  Parameter Cost  Detailed Estimates  Estimates  Cost classification  Calculation
  • 18. Cost-Capacity Factor  Apply to changes in size, scope, or capacity of projects of similar types  Reflect the nonlinear increase in cost with size (economies of scale, learning curves)  C2 = C1 (Q2/Q1) x  Where  C2 = estimated cost of the new facility w/capacity Q2  C1 = known cost of facility of capacity Q1  x = the cost-capacity factor for this type of work
  • 19. Cost-Capacity Factor Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992  Q is a parameter that reasonably reflects the size of the facility (e.g., barrels per day produced by a refinery, tons of steel per day produced by a steel mill, gross floor area for a warehouse)  X is an empirically derived factor based on well-documented historical records for a variety of different types of projects
  • 20. Cost-Capacity Factor Example  Example Revisit:  Warehouse Estimate: Assume you have an estimate to a similar warehouse located nearby and completed in 1993 for a cost of $4,200,000. We are planning to build a new warehouse in Feb. of 2007. The ENR index for 1993, relative to the base date of 1913, was 2996% and the ENR index for 2007 is 4432%.  Consider the cost-capacity factor x = 0.8 for a warehouse.  The above warehouse has a usable area of 120,000 square feet  The prospective owner for the new warehouse wants a structure with a usable area of 150,000 square feet
  • 21. Cost-Capacity Factor Example  What Information Do We Need?  Q2/Q1 = 150,000/120,000 = 1.25  Cost-capacity factor x = 0.8  Known cost = $4,200,000  C2 = $4,200,000 * (1.25)0.8 = $5,020,851  A 25% more capacity implies only 20% more costs
  • 22. Combining Cost Indices & Cost- Capacity Factor  Combine Cost Indices & Cost Capacity Factors to take into account changes in both time & capacity  C2 = C1 (Ib / Ia) (Q2 / Q1)x  Where  Ib = Index number “Now” or present time.  Ia = Index number at that time Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992
  • 23. Cost Indices & Cost-Capacity Factor Example  Example Revisit:  Warehouse Estimate: Assume you have an estimate to a similar warehouse located nearby and completed in 1993 for a cost of $4,200,000. We are planning to build a new warehouse in Feb. of 2007. The ENR index for 1993, relative to the base date of 1913, was 2996% and the ENR index for 2007 is 4432%.  Consider the cost-capacity factor x = 0.8 for a warehouse.  The above warehouse has a usable area of 120,000 square feet  The prospective owner for the new warehouse wants a structure with a usable area of 150,000 square feet
  • 24.  C2 = 4,200,000 * (4432/2996) * (150,000/120,000)0.8 = $7,188,731 Cost Indices & Cost-Capacity Factor Example
  • 25. Outline  Conceptual Estimates Cost indices Cost capacity factor Parameter Cost  Detailed Estimates  Estimates  Cost classification  Calculation
  • 26. Parameter Costs Source Data  Commonly used in building construction  ENR “Quarterly Cost Roundup”  R.S. Means “Means Square Foot Costs” Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
  • 27. Parameter Costs Characteristics Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992  Relates all costs of a project to just a few physical measures, or “Parameters”, that reflect the size or scope of the project  E.g., warehouse - the “Parameter” would be “Gross Enclosed Floor Area”  all costs represented by X ($/S.F) → total cost = X ($/S.F.) × the project’s gross enclosed floor area (S.F.)  With good historical records on comparable structures, parameter costing can give reasonable levels of accuracy for preliminary estimates
  • 28. Means Square Foot Cost  Costs per Square Foot  Type of Facility (total 23,000 S.F apartment with 3 stories) Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Story Height = 10’ and No Basement
  • 29.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 23,000 S.F
  • 30.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 23,000 S.F
  • 31.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Exterior wall variation
  • 32.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Exterior wall variation Base Cost = 129.65 $/S.F
  • 33.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Perimeter & Height Adjustment
  • 34.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Perimeter & Height Adjustment
  • 35.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Basement
  • 36.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Additives
  • 37.  Costs per S.F. of Floor Area Means Square Foot Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
  • 38. Means Square Foot Cost  Information: Detail Specs for the Cost Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
  • 39. Means Square Foot Cost  Information: Sub-total, Fees, and Total Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006
  • 40. Parameter Cost Example Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006  What is the Cost for an apartment building (7 Story) if the perimeter of the building is 502 L.F. and the story height is 11’-4”? Assume that the apartment building has decorative concrete block on the east, west & south walls. The north walls external finish is brick with concrete block backup. The area of each floor of the apartment building 11,460 S.F. The basement floor area s 4,200 S.F. Please use the Means Square Foot Cost to obtain an estimate. The building frame is steel. The apartment building is located in Atlantic City, New Jersey, Zip Code 07410.
  • 41. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example 60’ × 191’
  • 42.  Characteristics of the Apartment Building  60’ x 191’ = 11,460 S.F./Floor  2 * [191’ + 60’] = 502 L.F. Perimeter  7 Floors  Exterior Walls:  North wall: Face brick w/ concrete block backup  East, West & South walls: Decorative Concrete Block  Story Height: 11’-4”  Basement Area: 4,200 S.F  Steel Frame  Located in Atlantic City, New Jersey, Zip Code 07410  Coefficients are determined from Model Number M.020 for Apartment, 4-7 Story type (Refer to RS Means (2006) - Square Foot Costs, page 80) Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example
  • 43. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 80 Choose type Parameter Cost Example
  • 44. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 80 S.F. Area = 11,460 * 7 = 80220 L.F. Perimeter = 502 Parameter Cost Example
  • 45. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006  What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?  Exterior Wall Variation  Perimeter Adjustment  Story Height Adjustment  Basement Addition  Location Modifier Parameter Cost Example
  • 46. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Basic SF Costs for 80,000 S.F apartment building with Face Brick w/ Concrete Block Backup Basic SF Costs for 80,000 S.F apartment building with Decorative Concrete Block Parameter Cost Example
  • 47.  Basic SF Cost in R.S. Means for S.F Area=80000, L.F Perimeter = 530, Story Height = 10’ & No Basement  $128.35/SF when exterior walls are Brick w/ Concrete Block Backup (North)  $122.25/SF when exterior walls are Decorative Concrete Block (East, West, south) Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example N
  • 48.  Basic SF Cost in R.S. Means for S.F Area=80000, L.F Perimeter = 530, Story Height = 10’ & No Basement  $128.35/SF when exterior walls are Brick w/ Concrete Block Backup (North)  $122.25/SF when exterior walls are Decorative Concrete Block (East, West, south)  North wall makes up:  [191’/502’] x 100 = 38.04 % of total building perimeter  East, West & South walls make up:  [(191’+2x60’)/502’] x 100 = 61.96 % of total building perimeter  Exterior Wall Variation  [$128.35 * 38.04%] + [$122.25 * 61.96%] = $124.6/S.F. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example
  • 49. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006  What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?  Exterior Wall Variation  Perimeter Adjustment  Story Height Adjustment  Basement Addition  Location Modifier Parameter Cost Example
  • 50. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Perimeter & Height Adjustment Factors RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 80 Parameter Cost Example
  • 51.  Exterior Wall Variation :  [$128.35 * 38.04%] + [$122.25 * 61.96%] = $124.6/S.F.  Perimeter Adjustment:  Apartment building perimeter is 28 L.F (530 -502) less than the M.020 model building in RS Means  Perimeter adjustment factor: $2.65 per 100 L.F  $124.6 – ( $2.65/100 L.F * 28 L.F ) = $123.9/S.F  Height Adjustment:  Apartment building story height is 1’ 4” (11’ 4’’-10’) more than the M.020 model building in RS Means  Height adjustment factor: $1.20 per ft  $123.9 + $1.20 * 1.3 = $125.5/S.F.  Apartment Building initial total cost: $125.5 * 80,220 S.F = $10,067,610 Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example
  • 52. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006  What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?  Exterior Wall Variation  Perimeter Adjustment  Story Height Adjustment  Basement Addition  Location Modifier Parameter Cost Example
  • 53. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Basement Addition Factor RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 80 Parameter Cost Example
  • 54.  Apartment Building initial total cost: $125.5 * 80,220 S.F = $10,067,610  Basement Addition:  Apartment building has 4,200 S.F basement  Basement Addition Factor: $27.30 per S.F of basement area  Basement added cost : $10,067,610 + $27.30 * 4,200 S.F = $10,182,270 Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example
  • 55. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006  What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?  Exterior Wall Variation  Perimeter Adjustment  Story Height Adjustment  Basement Addition  Location Modifier Parameter Cost Example
  • 56. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Location Modifier RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 455 Parameter Cost Example
  • 57.  Basement Addition:  $10,182,270  Location Modifier for Residential Bldg: 1.13 (Refer to RS Means (2006) - Square Foot Costs, page 455)  Apartment building modified total cost: $10,182,270 * 1.13 = $ 11,505,965 Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example
  • 58. Parameter Cost Example Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006  What is the Cost for an apartment building (7 Story) if the perimeter of the building is 502 L.F. and the story height is 11’-4”? Assume that the apartment building has decorative concrete block on the east, west & south walls. The north walls external finish is brick with concrete block backup. The area of each floor of the apartment building 11,460 S.F. The basement floor area s 4,200 S.F. Please use the Means Square Foot Cost to obtain an estimate. The building frame is steel with an observed age of 20 years. The apartment building is located in Atlantic City, New Jersey, Zip Code 07410.
  • 59. Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006  What should be adjusted when the cost is to be established by using the Means Square Foot Cost Method?  Exterior Wall Variation  Perimeter Adjustment  Story Height Adjustment  Basement Addition  Location Modifier  Depreciation Adjustment Parameter Cost Example
  • 60. RS Means (2006) – Square Foot Costs, Page 228 Depreciation Adjustment Factor Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example
  • 61.  Location Modifier for Residential Building  $ 11,505,965  Depreciation Adjustment for steel frame building with 20 year observed age: 20 % (Refer to RS Means (2006) - Square Foot Costs, page 228)  Depreciation Amount: 0.2 * $ 11,505,965 = $ 2,301,193  Total Existing Building Cost: $ 11,505,965 - $ 2,301,193 = $9,204,772 Source: RS Means, Square Foot Costs Data, 2006 Parameter Cost Example
  • 62. Outline Conceptual Estimates Cost indices Cost capacity factor Parameter Cost Detailed Estimates Estimates  Cost classification  Calculation
  • 63. Estimation Levels - Revisit Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992  Different types of estimates are required as a project evolves  Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates  Prepared early in the project prior to engineering design completion (to tell Owner whether the contemplated project scope is feasible)  Incorporate new information from design to obtain an updated estimate of the project  Detailed Estimates  Prepared from completed plans and specifications  Definitive Estimates  Forecast the project cost within allowable limits from a combination of conceptual and detailed information often including partial contract and other procurement awards
  • 65. Important General Lesson  Precision in detailed estimates does not mean accuracy!  More an art than a science  Detailed quantitative estimates possible – but ignore important qualitative factors  Have differing ranges of uncertainties  Actual costs depend on systemic complexity  Two types of complexity at issue  Detail complexity (myriad components required)  System complexity (dynamic interactions, etc.)  Always consider:  What are assumptions behind the estimate?  What factors are being ignored?  How might these factors change the estimate?
  • 66. Detailed Estimates  After most or all of the detail design work is complete, approximate estimates are refined using detailed estimates  Engineer’s Detailed Estimates  Bid Detailed Estimates
  • 68. Engineer’s Detailed Estimates  Part of actual bid documents  Who? - owner, consultant, CM, or design-build team  Use unit prices databases  Estimate = Σ [Quantity] × [Unit Prices]  RS Means or other sources  Unit prices as result of average industry standards
  • 69. Engineer’s Detailed Estimates Source: RS Means, Building Construction Cost Data, 2006 RS Means (2006) – Building Construction Cost Data, Page 84 Unit price (RS Means) = Mat. + Lab. + Equip. + Overhead + Profit
  • 70. Engineer’s Detailed Estimates  Part of actual bid documents  Who? – owner, consultant, or CM  Use unit prices databases  Estimate = Σ[Quantity] × [Unit Prices]  RS Means or other sources  Unit prices as result of average industry standards  No lump-sum subcontract quotations  May be simplified number of line items (e.g., mark-up: not detailed)
  • 71. Engineer’s Breakdown - Example  Building  Foundations  Piles  Concrete foundations  Steel erection  Structural steel  Columns  Beams  Detail steel  Concrete decks  Stairs
  • 73. Bid Detailed Estimates  Contractor’s estimate low enough to obtain the work, yet high enough to make profit  Who? – contractor  More detail depending upon the contractor’s own procedures  Overall unit prices (past) → detailed categories (present)  Often relies on  Historical productivity data for company  Intuition on speed of movement  Quantity takeoff for most important items  Subcontractor bids  Sometimes less detailed than engineer’s estimates - subcontractors from 30% to 80% of the project
  • 74. Bid Breakdown – Example  Building (Bid estimates)  Piles (material take-off)  Concrete subcontract (lump-sum)  Steel erection subcontract (lump-sum)  Building (Engineer’s estimates)  Foundations  Piles  Concrete foundations  Steel erection  Structural steel  Columns  Beams  Detail steel  Concrete decks  Stairs
  • 75. Bid Detailed Estimates  Is estimating a streamlined process? A look at bids received for a typical project in a competitive area will sometimes show more than 50% difference between the low and the high bidders
  • 76. Estimation Levels - Revisit Source: Barrie & Paulson, 1992  Different types of estimates are required as a project evolves  Conceptual & Preliminary Estimates  Prepared early in the project prior to engineering design completion (to tell Owner whether the contemplated project scope is feasible)  Incorporate new information from design to obtain an updated estimate of the project  Detailed Estimates  Prepared from completed plans and specifications  Definitive Estimates  Forecast the project cost within allowable limits from a combination of conceptual and detailed information often including partial contract and other procurement awards
  • 78. Definitive Estimates  There comes a time when a definitive estimate can be prepared that will forecast the final project cost with little margin for error…  This error can be minimized through the proper addition of an evaluated contingency  Engineer’s estimates can complete this process  The proper time to classify an estimate as ‘definitive’ will vary according to the characteristics of the project. For example:  Traditional  Unit-price  Professional CM  Design-Build
  • 79. Definitive Estimates: Traditional & Unit Price Start Contract Detailed design Preliminary design Start Contract Detailed design Preliminary design  DBB definitive estimate  Unit Price definitive estimate
  • 80. Definitive Estimates: CM & Design-Build Start Contract Detailed design Preliminary design Start Contract Detailed design Preliminary design  CM definitive estimate  Design-Build definitive estimate
  • 81. Outline Conceptual Estimates Cost indices Cost capacity factor Parameter Cost  Detailed Estimates Estimates Cost classification  Calculation
  • 82. Cost Classification  Direct Cost  Labor Cost  Direct Labor  Indirect Labor  Material Cost  Equipment Cost  Subcontractor Price  Indirect Cost (i.e., Job Overhead)  Project Overhead  Markup  General Overhead  Profit  Contingency Source: Shtub et al., 1994
  • 83. Cost Classification - Direct Cost  Labor Cost  Direct Labor Cost  Difficult to evaluate precisely but all effort is done to get an accurate estimate as possible  Greatest amount of uncertainty in project estimation  Indirect Labor Cost  Costs that are additional to the basic hourly rates (e.g., tax, insurance, fringe benefits)  Substantial in amount: add 25 to 50 percent to direct labor costs  Commonly used approach adds indirect labor costs as a percentage to the total direct labor costs or for each major work category  Material Cost  All materials that are utilized in the finished structure.  Equipment Cost  Costs Includes: ownership, lease or rental expenses, and operating costs  Subcontractor Price  Includes quotations from all subcontractors working on the project  Quotations submitted by the subcontractor usually require extensive review by the general contractor’s estimator to determine what they include & do not include Source: Clough et al., 2005; Barrie & Paulson, 1992
  • 84. Source: Clough et al., 2005 Cost Classification – Indirect Cost  Project Overhead (i.e., Job Overhead)  Costs that do not pertain directly to any given construction work  Generally constitutes 5-15 percent of the total project cost  Costs computed by listing & evaluating each item of overhead individually  Examples of typical items included:  Job Mobilization, Project Manager, General Superintendent, Nonworking Foremen, Heat, Utilities, Storage Buildings, Field Office Supplies, Job Telephone, Computer Equipment & Software, Computer Networking & Internet Connectivity, Small Tools, Permits & Fees, Special Insurance, Builder’s Risk Insurance, Security Clearances, Material & Load Tests, Storage Area Rental, Protection of Adjoining Property, Field Offices, Parking Areas, Legal Expenses, Surveys, Engineering Services.
  • 85. Source: Clough et al., 2005 Cost Classification – Markup  Markup  Added at the close of the estimating process  Varies between 5 to 20 percent of the job cost  Reflects the contractor’s appraisal of the probability of being the lowest bidder for the project & the chances of making a reasonable profit  Factors considered when deciding on a job markup include: project size & complexity, provisions of the contract documents, difficulties inherent in the work, identities of the owner & architect/engineer  Include allowance for:  General Overhead or Office Overhead  Includes costs that are incurred to support the overall company construction program  Normally included in the bid as a percentage of the total estimated job cost  Examples of general business expenses include: office rent, office insurance, heat, electricity, office supplies, furniture, telephone & internet, legal expenses, donations, advertising, travel, association dues, and the salaries of executives & office employees  Profit  Contingency
  • 86. Cost Classification (Example) Source: Clough et al., 2005 Bid Estimates = Direct Cost + Overhead + Markup (including Firm Overhead)
  • 87. Cost Classification (Example) Source: Clough et al., 2005 Bid Estimates = Direct Cost + Overhead + Markup (including Firm Overhead) × 1.24
  • 88. Outline Conceptual Estimates Cost indices Cost capacity factor Parameter Cost  Detailed Estimates Estimates Cost classification Calculation
  • 89. Detailed Estimates - Methodology  Stage 1: Quantity takeoff  Decomposition into items, measurement of quantities  Challenges: tremendous detail complexity  Stage 2: Direct Cost contribution  Σ[Quantity] × [Unit Price]  Challenge: determination unit price (based on historical data)  Example: Item unit quantity Unit price price Reinforced steel lb 6,300 0.60 $ 3,780
  • 90. Labor Costs  Categorized Bid Estimate (not overall unit prices)  Basic Unit Labor Cost = P / LP ($/unit)  P = Price of all money elements ($/hours)  LP = Labor Productivity (units/hour)  Total Labor Cost = Q * P/LP  Q = Total quantity of work  Estimation of labor costs particularly tricky  Prices: In United States, highly detail intensive  Productivity: Many qualitative components
  • 91. Labor Cost - Prices Related  Components  Wages (varies by area, seniority, …)  Insurance (varies w/contractor record, work type)  Social security benefits  Fringe benefits (health…)  Wage premiums (e.g., overtime, shift-work differentials, hazardous work)
  • 92. Labor Cost - Productivity  Difficult but critical  High importance of qualitative factors (environment, morale, fatigue, learning, etc)  The primary means by which to control labor costs  Historical data available  Firm updated database  Department of Labor, professional organizations, state governments = P / LP ($/unit)
  • 93. Productivity Considerations  Considerations  Location of jobsite (local skill base, jurisdiction rules – hiring & firing)  Learning curves  Work schedule (overtime, shift work)  Weather  Environment  Location on jobsite, noise, proximity to materials  Management style (e.g., incentive)  Worksite rules
  • 94. Learning Curves Particularly useful for repetitive works
  • 96. Concluding Remarks  Functions of Estimating  Could Assess cost of construction from the conceptual design phase (Owner, Designer & Sometimes Contractor ). Feedback to  Conceptual Design for Alternative Architecture  Feasibility of the Project  Project / Company Alignment of Objectives, Constraints, Strategic Goals and Policies  Provide the basis for bidding & contracting (Contractor)  Provide a baseline for cost control and post project evaluation (Owner & Contractor)
  • 97. Concluding Remarks  In Converting an Estimate to a Control Budget, Consider:  The organization and categorization of costs suitable for preparing an estimate are often not compatible with realistic field cost control (e.g., might be convenient for the owner)  Estimates necessarily deal in averages, whereas tighter standards are sometimes desirable for control purposes