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Lecture 01 introduction --rev
The document is a lecture introduction that discusses: 1. The goals of transportation systems including economic efficiency, social equity, safety, environmental friendliness, and reduced energy usage. 2. The challenges of providing infrastructure access for all and making large infrastructure projects socially and financially feasible. 3. The interaction between land use and transportation systems and how transportation impacts the development of housing and workplaces.
Lecture 01 introduction --rev
- 1. ( Lecture 01:Introduction ) Harun al-Rasyid Lubis /FTSL-ITB
- 2. Harun al-‐Rasyid Lubis Transporta4on Research Group, FTSL -‐ ITB 2
- 3. Goals: • Economic efficiency • Social efficiency(equity) • Safety • Environment friendly • Less energy 3
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- 5. Infrastructure for all…. ? 5
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- 9. } Input } Output } Benefit } Impact } Multiplier effect / growth Kawasan Ekonomi khusus (SEZ) 9
- 10. The financing &investment paradox Consumers Taxpayers Who Pays How Financed User Tariffs Govt. Subsidies Public or Private Debt How to make it socially (economically) feasible and financially viable ? 10
- 11. } Regulation obstacle } Bad project preparation ( + risk mitigation } Government support not clear } Financial problem 11
- 12. 1. Structural (longterm) ◦ Regional disparities ◦ High cost economy ◦ Intermodal negative externalities 2. Managerial & leadership 3. Planning process & Decision Making (medium term) 12
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- 20. Koridor Utama danSub Koridor Utama Program Pendulum 3. PENDULUM NUSANTARA (Tol Laut) 2. SISLOGNAS Tatanan Pelabuhan Penting dan Jalur Utama Pelayaran Domestik 1. ASIAN HIGHWAY 4. RIPNAS (2025) Tinjauan Rencana Konektivitas di P Sumatera 20
- 21. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% EU-27 USA JapanIndonesia China Rusia Road Rail Inland Waterway Oil Pipeline Sea 21
- 22. addressed. Figure 1 Economicdensity is dominant in Java Source: The World Bank, World Development Report 2009 22
- 23. JAKARTA 46 Triliun Rupiah JABODETABEK 70 TriliunRupiah BANDUNG RAYA 17 Triliun Rupiah BANDUNG 5 Triliun Rupiah Biaya Kemacetan Jakarta – Bandung Rp 100 triliun / tahun Jakarta – Surabaya Rp 250 triliun / tahun JAKARTA- BANDUNG (INTERCITY) 15 Triliun Rupiah 23
- 24. 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 0 50 100 150 200 250 Jlh konflik Luasan (ha) KonflikAgraria Vs. Sektor Pembangunan ( Sumber: Komite Pembaruan Agraria, 2014) 24 TANTANGAN
- 25. 25 86.0 114.2 145.5 155.9 177.9 256.3 317.1 387.3 1.55 2.07 1.921.97 2.08 3.2 3.30 3.47 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 Rp (trilun) %GDP 2010 2011 1012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National budget (40%), $ 186 sub- national (10%), $ 47 SOE's fund (20%), $ 93 Private (30%), $ 140 RPJMN (2015-2019) Infrastructure Fund Needs 465.7 billions USD or 5,519 trillions IDR
- 26. APBN 2015 APBN 2016 APBN 2017 Total (2015-20 17) Kebutuha n (2015-20 19) Gap Series1 256.3 317.1387.3 960.7 1978.6 1017.9 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Rp(Triliun) APBN Infrastruktur 2015-2019 26 State budget (12,5%), 525 SOE's fund (30%), 1258 Private Capital (57,5%), 2414 Perpres 58/2017 (~2019) 245 proyek , Rp 4197 triliun Terget porsi swasta terus membesar, karena: - Target pajak masih sulit dicapai - Pemotongan anggaran - BUMN (PMN) terbatas State budget (41,3%), $ 147.85 SOE's fund (22,2%), $ 79.34 Private Capital (36,5%), $ 129.82 Revised* Infrastructure Fund Needs (2015-2019) 353.4 billions USD or 4,796 trillions IDR * June 2017
- 27. 1. Good Public& Corporate Governance Rules to be applied : 1. Model good governance 2. Government less govern 3. Roles of private sect & Communtiy should be increased in phasing ( gradually ) 4. Formation of regulatory bodies Government Parliement Private Sector & SOEs Communtiy / Civil Soceity Profess . Assoc Universities NGO Constitution MPW MoT MoHousing, MoHealth Regulatory Bodies Prerequisite: 1. Clean government 2. Privates are capable 3. Industy and society are professional / mature 2. Choosing Appropriate Assessment Procedure 27 KERJASAMA PEMERINTAH-SWASTA (KPBU)
- 28. Pillar 1 Pillar2 Ada 3 prasyarat agar investasi infrastruktur dapat menghasilkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkualitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi berkualitas Pillar 3 Rapuhnya salah satu dari 3 prasyarat tersebut akan berdampak pada kualitas pertumbuhan ekonomi, seperti terlihat pada slide berikut. Kondisi Politik, kebijkan dan kelembagaa n kondusif Iklim Investasi dan pendanaan publik tersedia Kondisi Perekonomian wilayah kondusif 28
- 29. Kondisi Politik , kebijakan dan kelembagaa n kondusif Iklim Investasi dan pendanaan publik tersedia Pillar2 Hanya terjadi re-distribusi (straw-effect) Pertumbuhan tidak terwujud (zero sum) , walaupun ada perubahan aksessibilitas Pillar 3 Kondisi Perekonomia n wilayah belum kondusif Ketimpangan ekonomi wilayah masih mencolok, belum terbentuk eksternalitas ekonomi yang positif seperti belum adanya agglomerasi ekonomi, ekonomi lokal statis, tenaga kerja terlatih dan enterpreunership masih langka. Walaupun Iklim investasi, pendanaan serta kondisi politik dan kelembagaan sudah mendukung. Investasi infrastruktur transportasi (konektivitas) terjadi, namun…………… Perlu dilanjutkan dengan pengembangan pasar dan sentra produksi 29
- 30. TRANSPORT AND LAND-USEINTERACTION Part A: Integrated Modelling Methodology costs will be increased, and if the demand for travel along a section of road increases, then the travel time will rise due to congestion. Prices Demand Times, cost Demand Land uses (activities) Land, floorspace Travel, freight Transport systems LandUse Transport Demand for transport Accessibilties Figure2-12. Themodelframework. Pemiliha n Rute Pemiliha n Moda Pemiliha n Tujuan Keputusan Melakukan Perjalanan Kepemilika n Kendaraan Aktifitas Penempat an Lahan Pembangun an Pemilihan Lahan oleh Investor Pemilihan Lahan oleh Pengguna Daya Tarik Lahan Aksesibilita s Waktu Tempuh/ Jarak/Biaya Volume di Ruas Jalan TRANSPORTASI GUNA LAHAN Land Use – Transport Interaction 30
- 31. Trip Generation Trip Distribution ModalSplit Trip Assignment • Public Transport Passenger • Speed • Vehicle Speed • Traffic Flow • Travel Time • Volume / Capacity Ratio • Passenger.Km • Passenger.Hour • Etc. 4 Step Modelling Land Use Output 31
- 32. Generation 02: TypicalComponent of Land Use – Transport Interaction Model (Online model) 32
- 33. Land Use –Transport Interaction 33
- 34. The MARS modelconsists of several sub-modules as follows 1. Scenario Input Module 2. Policy Input Module 3. Transport Model a) Commuting trips sub-model b) Other trips sub-model 4. Land Use Model a) Housing development sub-model b) Housing relocation sub-model c) Workplace development and relocation sub model 5. Fleet Composition and Emission Module 6. Evaluation and Assessment Module 7. Output Representation Module 34
- 35. • Based on3 steps in 4 step modelling (trip generation, trip distribution and modal split) • Included transport mode: car, bus, rail, walking and cycling • Output : Average travel speed, trip length distribution, average cost, number of trip per modes • Able to model reinforcing (R) and balancing (B) loop Source: Pfaffenbichler et al. Land Use Transport Interaction Modelling 35
- 36. • Simulates newhousing and workplace developments in different zone / decision to invest new development • Available land is used as constraints • Development investment is influenced by accessibility stemming from the transport model • The main output is the population forecast and workplace distribution Source: Pfaffenbichler et al. Land Use Transport Interaction Modelling 36
- 37. Figure 3.1 TheStructure of the Socioeconomic and Spacial Impact Model European developments GDP Employment Labour forceSocio-economic indicators Cohesion indicators Accessibility Population European GDP Regional endowment Regional accessibility Regional education Regional labour productivity Transfer policies Trans- European Networks Regional production function Regional unemploy- ment Regional per capita income Regional migration function Regional quality of life Regional fertility mortality Regional labour force participation Transport policies European migration Migration policies Regional GDP per capita by sector Regional population by age, sex education Regional labour force by sex and skill level Regional employment by sector GDP = gross domestic product Source: Michael Wegener, SASI Model Description, Working Paper 08/01, August 2008, p. 7. 37
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