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Lean development planning using options thinking
The document discusses lean planning approaches for complex environments, including flow-based roadmaps, options thinking, and development planning models. It advocates using a flow-based roadmap laid out with real options from which to choose based primarily on benefits while considering risks and understanding just enough about costs to get started. Various techniques are presented for visualizing work, limiting work-in-progress, and measuring progress intentionally. Benefit mapping and weighted scoring rubrics are described as ways to evaluate options.
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Lean development planning using options thinking
- 1. Lean Planning: ResilientPlans for Complex Environments Matt Barcomb, odbox
- 2. with Matt Barcomb @mattbarcomb matt@odbox.co LeanPlanning: Resilient Plans for Complex Environments
- 3. (most comfortable) 1. Flow-basedroadmaps 2. Options thinking 3. Planning for development (least comfortable)
- 4. “Focus on everything, andyou have not actually focused on anything.” - Eli Goldratt “Large queues make it hard to create urgency” - Don Reinertsen Flow-based
- 5. Flow-based Systems Visualize work Pull work Makeexplicit policies Limit work in progress Measure with intent
- 6. Team A Team B Starterroad map
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- 15. “Long-range planning does notdeal with the future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.” - Peter Drucker Options-thinking
- 16. Real Options Execute intentionally Optionsare valuable Options expire
- 17. Customer/Problem Hypothesis: Questions &Dependencies: Name: Org Benefits: Option Framing
- 18. Option Triggers Starting orStopping - duration - seasonality - stakeholder feedback - govt. policy - major biz activity - competition shift - media/pr event - market shift - technology shift - employee shift - major social incident - better options
- 19. “Essentially, all models arewrong, but some are useful.” - George Box Development Planning Models
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- 22. Scientific Research Custom Construction Complex Manufacturing Mass Construction Routine Manufacturing Enterprise ERP Impl. Software Product Dev. Physical ProductDev. Small ERP Impl. Spectrum of Uncertainty Sensing of knowns Response to unknowns Amount of unknowables
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- 28. Sales Reach Increase Revenue Decrease Mktg. Costs Product Adoption Product: Galaxy Revenue Customer Satisfaction Product Adoption Product Awareness Competitiveness Dec. Mktg Costs SalesReach Brand Awareness 1 2 3 4 Weighted Scoring Rubric
- 29. Sales Reach 30% Increase Revenue 10% Decrease Mktg.Costs 15% Product Adoption 45% Product: Galaxy Revenue Customer Satisfaction Product Adoption Product Awareness Competitiveness Dec. Mktg Costs Sales Reach Brand Awareness 1 2 3 4 Weighted Scoring Rubric
- 30. Sales Reach 30% Increase Revenue 10% Decrease Mktg.Costs 15% Product Adoption 45% 1= <1% 5= >15% 1= <$5k 5= >$50k 1= no change 5= very easy 1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg. Options Scores Product: Galaxy Revenue Customer Satisfaction Product Adoption Product Awareness Competitiveness Dec. Mktg Costs Sales Reach Brand Awareness 1 2 3 4 Weighted Scoring Rubric
- 31. Sales Reach 30% Increase Revenue 10% Decrease Mktg.Costs 15% Product Adoption 45% 1= <1% 5= >15% 1= <$5k 5= >$50k 1= no change 5= very easy 1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg. Options Scores New catalog Grades Portal Product: Galaxy Revenue Customer Satisfaction Product Adoption Product Awareness Competitiveness Dec. Mktg Costs Sales Reach Brand Awareness 1 2 3 4 Weighted Scoring Rubric
- 32. Sales Reach 30% Increase Revenue 10% Decrease Mktg.Costs 15% Product Adoption 45% 1= <1% 5= >15% 1= <$5k 5= >$50k 1= no change 5= very easy 1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg. Options Scores New catalog Grades Portal 4 2 1 3 Product: Galaxy Revenue Customer Satisfaction Product Adoption Product Awareness Competitiveness Dec. Mktg Costs Sales Reach Brand Awareness 1 2 3 4 Weighted Scoring Rubric
- 33. Sales Reach 30% Increase Revenue 10% Decrease Mktg.Costs 15% Product Adoption 45% 1= <1% 5= >15% 1= <$5k 5= >$50k 1= no change 5= very easy 1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg. Options Scores New catalog Grades Portal 4 2 1 3 285 Product: Galaxy Revenue Customer Satisfaction Product Adoption Product Awareness Competitiveness Dec. Mktg Costs Sales Reach Brand Awareness 1 2 3 4 Weighted Scoring Rubric
- 34. Sales Reach 30% Increase Revenue 10% Decrease Mktg.Costs 15% Product Adoption 45% 1= <1% 5= >15% 1= <$5k 5= >$50k 1= no change 5= very easy 1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg. Options Scores New catalog Grades Portal 4 3 2 4 1 2 3 1 285 295 Product: Galaxy Revenue Customer Satisfaction Product Adoption Product Awareness Competitiveness Dec. Mktg Costs Sales Reach Brand Awareness 1 2 3 4 Weighted Scoring Rubric
- 35. Activity: Create aB-Map Your company just got $1B to research medical technology! Medical Technology
- 36. Activity: Create aB-Map Mind-map desired benefits (value) Medical Technology
- 37. Activity: Create aB-Map Rank the top 3 Medical Technology
- 38. Activity: Create aB-Map Assign weights Medical Technology ? % ? % ? %
- 39. Activity: Create aB-Map Come up with 2 research options
- 40. Activity: Create aB-Map Score 2 options (use a 1-5 scale) Medical Technology ? % ? % ? % Option 1 Option 2
- 41. Activity: Create aB-Map What did you discuss? How did you decide? Coherence vs. Artifacts
- 42. Risk Discuss Quantify Amplify 1 23 1 2 3 1 2 3 2 4 6 3 6 9 Likelihood Impact
- 43. Cost “Learn just enoughabout cost to decide if its worth it to start.” - Brief discussion - Rough-order magnitude - Snap to linear scale
- 44. “More effective developmentplanning is achieved through using a flow-based road map laid out with real options from which we can choose based primarily on the benefits they provide while considering risks and understanding just enough about cost to get started.”
- 45. Questions? Matt Barcomb @mattbarcombmatt@odbox.co