This document discusses Bangladesh potentially graduating from its status as a Least Developed Country (LDC). It provides background on the LDC category and criteria for inclusion and graduation. The criteria have evolved over time to include measures of income, human assets, and economic vulnerability. Bangladesh meets the graduation thresholds for income but still needs progress on the human assets and economic vulnerability indices. The document outlines Bangladesh's performance on the various criteria and the timeline and process for reviewing and potentially graduating countries from LDC status.

1. LDC Graduation: Bangladesh Case
Presented by
Dr. Md. Nur Alam Miah
Divisional Head
Planning & Development Division
Bangladesh Sugarcrop Research Institute
Ishurdi-6620, Pabna

2. OUTLINE
 LDCs
 Evolution of LDC criteria
 Inclusion & Gratuation criteria
 GDP, GNI, HAI, EVI, ODA, Atlas method
 Gratuation timeline
 Challenges and opportunities

3. 3

4. What is LDCs?
 Low-income countries which
faced severe structural
handicaps to economic
growth and development and
needed access to support
beyond what was commonly
available for all developing
countries
 Currently 47 countries on the
list of LDCs which is reviewed
every three years by CDP
 Africa (33 countries) Asia
(9 countries) Oceania (4
countries) America (1
country)
 Between 1975 and 1991,
no systematic reviews of
the list of LDCs
4

5. Common features among the LDCs
 Dominance of agriculture
 Limited capacity for
mobilizing domestic
resources
 Low levels of labour
productivity
 Low level of education
and an overall shortage of
skills
5

6. Lack of adequate
physical and
institutional
infrastructure
Economically small (by
population or national
income),
Undiversified natural
resource base

7. Creation of the LDC category
7
March-June
1964 First session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNCTAD member States agreed that special attention was to be “paid to the less developed
among the developing countries, as an effective means of ensuring sustained growth with
equitable opportunity for each developing country”
January-
March 1968 Second session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Acknowledged the need to alleviate the problems of underdevelopment in the less
developed countries
Requested the Secretary-General to carry out a comprehensive examination of the special
problems of the LDCs and to recommend special measures for dealing with them
December
1969 24th session of the United Nations General Assembly
Acknowledged the need to alleviate the problems of underdevelopment in the less developed
countries
Requested the Secretary-General to carry out a comprehensive examination of the
special problems of the LDCs and to recommend special measures for dealing with them

8. 8
March 1970 6th session of the Committee for Developing Planning (CDP)
Formed a working group to define the methodology for identifying LDCs
December
1970 25th session of the United Nations General Assembly
Reiterated the urgency of formal identification of LDCs
March 1971 7th session of the Committee for Developing Planning (CDP)
Determined the initial criteria for identification of LDCs to be low per capita gross domestic
product (GDP) and the presence of structural impediments to growth
Identified a tentative list of 25 countries as LDCs based on these criteria
December
1971 26th session of the United Nations General Assembly
Formally endorsed the list of the 25 LDCs

9. Evolution of LDC criteria
9
1971
LDCs are countries with very low levels of per capita gross domestic product facing the most severe obstacles to
development
GDP
per
capita  Adult literacy rate  Share of manufacturing in GDP
1991
LDCs are low-income countries suffering from long-term handicaps to growth, in particular, low levels of
human resource development and/or severe structural weaknesses
GDP
per
capita Augmented physical quality of life (APQL) Economic diversification index (EDI)
 Life expectancy at birth
 Per capita calorie supply
 Combined primary and secondary school
enrolment ratio
 Adult literacy rate
 Export concentration ratio
 Share of manufacturing in GDP
 Share of employment in industry
 Per capita electricity consumption
1999
LDCs are low-income countries suffering from low level of human resources and a high degree
of economic vulnerability
GDP per
capita Augmented physical quality of life (APQL) Economic vulnerability index (EVI)
 Under-five mortality rate
 Average calorie intake per capita as a
percentage of the requirement
 Combined primary and secondary school
enrolment ratio
 Adult literacy rate
 Population size
 Export concentration
 Share of manufacturing and modern services in
GDP
 Instability of exports of goods and services
 Instability of agricultural production

10. 10
2002
LDCs are low-income countries suffering from low level of human resources and a high degree of
economic vulnerability
GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI)
 Under-five mortality rate
 Average calorie intake per capita as
a percentage of the requirement
 Gross secondary school
enrolment ratio
 Adult literacy rate
 Population size
 Export concentration
 Share of manufacturing and modern
services in GDP
 Instability of exports of goods and
services
 Instability of agricultural production
2005
LDCs are low-income countries suffering from low level of human resources and a high degree of
economic vulnerability
GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI)
 Under-five mortality rate
 Percentage of population
undernourished
 Gross secondary school enrolment
ratio
 Adult literacy rate
 Population
 Remoteness
 Merchandise export concentration
 Share of agriculture, forestry and
fishing in GDP
 Instability of exports of goods and
services
 Homelessness due to natural
disasters
 Instability of agricultural production

11. 11
2011
LDCs are low-income countries suffering from the most severe structural impediments to
sustainable development
GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI)
 Under-five mortality rate
 Percentage of population
undernourished
 Gross secondary school enrolment
ratio
 Adult literacy rate
 Population
 Remoteness
 Merchandise export concentration
 Share of agriculture, forestry and
fishing in GDP
 Share of population in low
elevated coastal zones
 Instability of exports of goods and
services
 Victims of natural disasters
 Instability of agricultural production
2017
LDCs are low-income countries suffering from the most severe structural impediments to sustainable
development
GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI)
 Under-five mortality rate
 Percentage of population
undernourished
 Maternal mortality ratio
 Gross secondary school enrolment
ratio
 Adult literacy rate
 Population
 Remoteness
 Merchandise export concentration
 Share of agriculture, forestry and
fishing in GDP
 Share of population in low elevated
coastal zones
 Instability of exports of goods and
services
 Victims of natural disasters
 Instability of agricultural production

12. Programme of action for LDCs?
Programme of Action for the
Least Developed Countries
for the Decade 2011-2020,
Istanbul, Turkey, May 2011
 Enable half the number
of LDCs to meet the
criteria for graduation by
2020
 Target: 24 countries
12
https://www.gettyimages.com/event/istanbul-programme-of-action-for-
the-least-developed-countries-642473083

13. Committee for Development Policy (CDP)
• The organ officially mandated
by the ECOSOC and the UNGA
to identify and make
recommendations on which
countries should belong to the
LDC category
• A subsidiary body of the
ECOSOC
• Responsible for under-taking,
once every three years, a
review of the list of least
developed countries (LDCs)
13

14. 5 LDCs graduated so far
1994
• Botswana
2007
• Cabo Verde
2011
• Maldives
2014
• Samoa
2017
• Equatorial Guinea
14
https://vanuatudigest.com/2016/06/15/under-microscope-vanuatu-transition-
least-developed-country-status

15. Eligibility procedure for inclusion
15
January
expert
group
review
CDP (Committee for Development Policy)
Preliminary finding: country satisfies inclusion criteria
DESA (Development of Economic and Social
Affairs)
Notifies the country of preliminary finding
Between
the
expert
group
review
and the
triennial
review
DESA
Prepares a country assessment note and provides a
draft to the country
Country
Presents a written statement (optional), indicating
approval of or objection to the inclusion

16. 16
March
triennial
review
CDP
Finds the country eligible
DESA
Formally notifies the country of eligibility conclusion
CDP
Submits to ECOSOC the recommendation to include the country,
unless the country formally expresses objection
After the
March
triennial
review
ECOSOC
Endorses the CDP recommendation
Country
Formally notifies the Secretary-General of its acceptance
General Assembly
Decides to take note of the CDP recommendation
Country immediately becomes an LDC and is formally added to the list

17. Inclusion criteria
Identification of Eligible
Countries
 The inclusion thresholds, as
determined by the CDP, must
be met for each of the three
criteria in one triennial
review
 The Population must be no
larger than 75 million
inhabitants
GNI per
capita
Human
Assets Index
(HAI)
Economic
Vulnerability
Index
(EVI)
$1,025 or
below
60 or below 36 or above
17

18. Per capita GNI (Atlas method)
• Per capita GNI
using the World
Bank Atlas method
has outstripped
the LDC average
since 1996 and has
recently risen
above the
threshold used by
the CDP
18

19. Progress in EVI and HAI
19
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
EVI threshold (2018)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
HAI threshold (2018)

20. Gross national income (GNI) per capita
Rationale
Provides information on the income status
and the overall level of resources available
to a country
Thresholds
 The inclusion threshold - the three-
year average of the level of GNI per
capita. At the 2018 review it was $
1,025.
 The graduation threshold- 20% above
the inclusion threshold. At the 2018
review- $ 1,230.
 The income-only graduation
threshold is twice the graduation
threshold. At the 2018 review - $ 2,460.
Methodology
 GNI is calculated from
national accounts data
converted into USD using
the World Bank Atlas
method
 GNI per capita is derived by
dividing GNI in USD by the
annual population of a
country
Data sources
 United Nations Statistics
Division
 United Nations Population
Division
20

21. GNI pc current $US (atlas method)
21

22. Human Assets Index (HAI)
Rationale
 A measure of level of human
capital
 Low levels of human assets
indicate major structural
impediments to sustainable
development
Thresholds
 The inclusion threshold = 60
 The graduation threshold
=66 (10 per cent above the
inclusion threshold)
22

23. Human Asset
23
Source: UNIAG

24. 24
Source: UNESCO
Source: FAO

25. Rationale
 A measure of structural
vulnerability to economic
and environmental shocks
 High vulnerability indicates
major structural
impediments to
sustainable development
Thresholds
 The inclusion threshold =36
 The graduation threshold =
32 (10 per cent below the
inclusion threshold)
Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)

26. Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)
26

27. 25.78
23.21
32.41
25.11
22.25
17.40
34.55
22.75
29.31 29.03
30.26
27.46
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
2006 2009 2012 2015
EVI Exposure index Shock index
27
Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)

28. Year
Export
concentrati
on
Remotene
ss
Agricultural
instability
Export
instability
Shares of
agriculture,
forestry and
fisheries
Natural
Shock
index
2000 0.32 2.28 7.39
2003 0.32 3.05 7.11
2006 0.30 0.59 3.47 7.38 19.83 44.95
2009 0.40 38.97 3.90 7.29 18.87 44.64
2012 0.38 43.27 3.70 7.36 18.78 52.64
2015 0.37 38.88 3.13 6.67 17.03 49.37
28
Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)

29. Bangladesh status (2018 triennial review)
Criterian 2018 CDP BBS
GNI >US$1230 US$1272 US$1274
HAI >66 72.8 73.2
EVI <32 25 25.2
29

30. Time
frame
of
the
eligibility
procedure
Year 0
(first
triennial
review)
CDP Finds country eligible for the first time (eligibility needs to be
reconfirmed at the next triennial review)
DESA Notifies the country of the first finding
Between
years 0 and
3
(between
first and
second
triennial
review)
UNCTAD Prepares a vulnerability profile and provides a draft to the
country
DESA Prepares an ex ante impact assessment and provides a draft to
the country
Country Provides comments on the drafts of the UNCTAD profile and
the DESA assessment (optional); may present its view on graduation
at the CDP expert group meeting preceding the second triennial
review
Year 3
(second
triennial
review)
CDP Confirms eligibility (second finding); submits the
recommendation to ECOSOC, taking into account the graduation
criteria and additional information (country statements, the DESA
assessment, and the UNCTAD profile)
ECOSOC Endorses the CDP recommendation
General Assembly Takes note of the CDP recommendation 30

31. Between
years 3 and
6
Graduating Country
Establishes consultative mechanism; prepares the transition strategy;
reports to the CDP on the preparation of the strategy (optional)
UNDP Facilitates consultative group; provides support upon request
UN System Provides targeted assistance and capacity-building upon
request
Development and trading partners Participate in consultative
mechanism
CDP Monitors development progress of the country during the period;
reports annually to ECOSOC
Year 6
Graduation becomes effective, country is no longer in the LDC
category
31
Time frame of the eligibility procedure

32. After
year 6
(after
graduati
on)
Graduated country
Implements and monitors the transition strategy; voluntarily
submits to the CDP progress reports on its implementation
annually for the first three years after graduation, and triennially
at two triennial reviews
Development and trading partners
Support the implementation of the transition strategy; avoid
abrupt reduction of LDC-specific support
CDP
Monitors development progress of graduated country; reports to
ECOSOC annually for the first three years after the country’s
graduation, and triennially at two triennial reviews
32

33. Asymmetries between the inclusion and graduation processes
Criteria Inclusion Graduation
Number of criteria to be
met
Three Two
Threshold of criteria Established by the CDP Set at higher level than
inclusion
Population threshold Smaller than 75 million Not relevant
Eligibility Determined once Determined twice
(over consecutive
reviews)
Timing Effective immediately Preparatory period (three
years)
Approval by country Required Not required
33

34. Graduation timeline
Graduation
Year
Country Year of statistical
pre-eligibility for
graduation
Met criteria
1994 Botswana 1991 Income (GDP per capita) + Augmented
physical quality of life (APQL)
2007 Cabo Verde 1997 GNI per capita + HAI
2011 Maldives 1997 GNI per capita + HAI
2014 Samoa 1991 Not retained due
to probable impact of
ODA reduction, 2003-
following 2009 tsunami
GNI per capita + HAI
2017 Equatorial
Guinea
2006 Income only
2020 Vanuatu * 1994 pending
completion of
vulnerability review,
2006 deferred
graduation
Income, HAI
34

35. 2021 Angola * 2012 Income only
2021 Bhutan * 2015 Income, HAI
2021 Nepal * 2015 HAI, EVI
2021 Sao Tome and
Principe *
2015 Income, HAI
2021 Solomon Islands * 2015 Income, HAI
2021 Timor-Leste * 2015 Income only
2024 Afghanistan (may be delayed, in view
of its lingering security concerns)
2018 HAI, EVI
2024 Bangladesh 2018 Income, HAI, EVI
2024 Djibouti 2018 Income, HAI, EVI
2024 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 2018 Income, EVI
2024 Myanmar 2018 HAI, EVI
2024 Yemen (May be delayed, in view of its
lingering security concerns)
2018 HAI, EVI (2018);
Income, HAI, EVI
(2021)
35
Graduation timeline

36. March 2018 and onward
Country Actions
 Remains in the LDC category and is entitled to receive all benefits
available to LDCs
 Prepares a national transition strategy and establishes a
consultative mechanism to facilitate its preparation in cooperation
with development partners
 May seek assistance from the United Nations system in the
preparation of the transition strategy
 Voluntarily reports on the preparation of the transition strategy to the
CDP on an annual basis
CDP actions
 Monitors the development progress of the country and submits an
annual report to ECOSOC
 Report provides information on the preparation of the transition strategy,
if provided by the country
36

37. Smooth transition strategy
 Aims to ensure that
development efforts are not
disrupted by graduation
 Focuses on expected
implications of loss of LDC
status and associated special
support measures
 Presents a comprehensive and
coherent set of specific
measures
37
http://www.dailynews.lk/2018/01/18/business/140252/bangladesh-exports-
await-blow-graduating-ldc

38. International support measures for LDCs
 International trade
 development
assistance (technical
& financial)
 general support and
other forms of
assistance
38
http://drvidyahattangadi.com/some-inspiring-self-
sufficient-indian-villages/

39. Support measures and special treatment related to trade
 Preferential market access: goods
and services
 Special and differential treatment
(SDT) related to WTO obligations
((i) increased market access; (ii)
safeguarding of the interests of
LDCs; (iii) increased flexibility for
LDCs in rules and disciplines
governing trade measures; (iv)
extension of longer transitional
periods to LDCs; and (v) provision
of technical assistance
 Support measures related to
capacity-building in trade
39
https://bridgeafricaconsulting.com/services/logistics-and-trade-
support-services-in-africa/

40. Official development assistance (ODA)
 Bilateral assistance
0.15- 0.20 per cent of
their GNI
 Multilateral assistance
(UNCDF, UNFCCC)
 UN Capital
Development Fund
 UN Framework
Convention on Climate
Change
40

41. General Support
 Travel benefits, scholarships
and research grants
 Budget gaps
 Support for graduation from
the LDC category
41

42. Loss from graduation
 Erosion of preferences
 export loss (8% of export
(CPD), 5.5-7.5 (UNCTAD)
 No DF-QF market access
 SDT provisions for the LDCs
in the WTO
 From low cost IDA- high cost
IRBD
 preferential climate financing
from infrastructure
development fund, climate
change adaptation funds and
technology-related green
climate fund
 Shrinking ODA (7% of total
ODA)

43. Challenges and Opportunities?
43

44. Challenges
Export
Competitiveness
Low
Human
capital
Resource
mobilization
Climate
change
Employment
and poverty
Product and
market
diversification
Technology
44

45. The share of grant in ODA has been shrinking
45

46. Opportunities
Regional
integration
Emerging
donors
Productivity
Resource
mobilization
New
markets
GSP+
46

47. The woods are lovely,
dark and deep,
But I have promises to
keep,
And miles to go before I
sleep,
And miles to go before I
sleep.

48. 48