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LDCPresentation.ppt
- 1. LDC Graduation: BangladeshCase Presented by Dr. Md. Nur Alam Miah Divisional Head Planning & Development Division Bangladesh Sugarcrop Research Institute Ishurdi-6620, Pabna
- 2. OUTLINE LDCs Evolutionof LDC criteria Inclusion & Gratuation criteria GDP, GNI, HAI, EVI, ODA, Atlas method Gratuation timeline Challenges and opportunities
- 3.
- 4. What is LDCs? Low-income countries which faced severe structural handicaps to economic growth and development and needed access to support beyond what was commonly available for all developing countries Currently 47 countries on the list of LDCs which is reviewed every three years by CDP Africa (33 countries) Asia (9 countries) Oceania (4 countries) America (1 country) Between 1975 and 1991, no systematic reviews of the list of LDCs 4
- 5. Common features amongthe LDCs Dominance of agriculture Limited capacity for mobilizing domestic resources Low levels of labour productivity Low level of education and an overall shortage of skills 5
- 6. Lack of adequate physicaland institutional infrastructure Economically small (by population or national income), Undiversified natural resource base
- 7. Creation of theLDC category 7 March-June 1964 First session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD member States agreed that special attention was to be “paid to the less developed among the developing countries, as an effective means of ensuring sustained growth with equitable opportunity for each developing country” January- March 1968 Second session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Acknowledged the need to alleviate the problems of underdevelopment in the less developed countries Requested the Secretary-General to carry out a comprehensive examination of the special problems of the LDCs and to recommend special measures for dealing with them December 1969 24th session of the United Nations General Assembly Acknowledged the need to alleviate the problems of underdevelopment in the less developed countries Requested the Secretary-General to carry out a comprehensive examination of the special problems of the LDCs and to recommend special measures for dealing with them
- 8. 8 March 1970 6thsession of the Committee for Developing Planning (CDP) Formed a working group to define the methodology for identifying LDCs December 1970 25th session of the United Nations General Assembly Reiterated the urgency of formal identification of LDCs March 1971 7th session of the Committee for Developing Planning (CDP) Determined the initial criteria for identification of LDCs to be low per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and the presence of structural impediments to growth Identified a tentative list of 25 countries as LDCs based on these criteria December 1971 26th session of the United Nations General Assembly Formally endorsed the list of the 25 LDCs
- 9. Evolution of LDCcriteria 9 1971 LDCs are countries with very low levels of per capita gross domestic product facing the most severe obstacles to development GDP per capita Adult literacy rate Share of manufacturing in GDP 1991 LDCs are low-income countries suffering from long-term handicaps to growth, in particular, low levels of human resource development and/or severe structural weaknesses GDP per capita Augmented physical quality of life (APQL) Economic diversification index (EDI) Life expectancy at birth Per capita calorie supply Combined primary and secondary school enrolment ratio Adult literacy rate Export concentration ratio Share of manufacturing in GDP Share of employment in industry Per capita electricity consumption 1999 LDCs are low-income countries suffering from low level of human resources and a high degree of economic vulnerability GDP per capita Augmented physical quality of life (APQL) Economic vulnerability index (EVI) Under-five mortality rate Average calorie intake per capita as a percentage of the requirement Combined primary and secondary school enrolment ratio Adult literacy rate Population size Export concentration Share of manufacturing and modern services in GDP Instability of exports of goods and services Instability of agricultural production
- 10. 10 2002 LDCs are low-incomecountries suffering from low level of human resources and a high degree of economic vulnerability GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI) Under-five mortality rate Average calorie intake per capita as a percentage of the requirement Gross secondary school enrolment ratio Adult literacy rate Population size Export concentration Share of manufacturing and modern services in GDP Instability of exports of goods and services Instability of agricultural production 2005 LDCs are low-income countries suffering from low level of human resources and a high degree of economic vulnerability GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI) Under-five mortality rate Percentage of population undernourished Gross secondary school enrolment ratio Adult literacy rate Population Remoteness Merchandise export concentration Share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in GDP Instability of exports of goods and services Homelessness due to natural disasters Instability of agricultural production
- 11. 11 2011 LDCs are low-incomecountries suffering from the most severe structural impediments to sustainable development GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI) Under-five mortality rate Percentage of population undernourished Gross secondary school enrolment ratio Adult literacy rate Population Remoteness Merchandise export concentration Share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in GDP Share of population in low elevated coastal zones Instability of exports of goods and services Victims of natural disasters Instability of agricultural production 2017 LDCs are low-income countries suffering from the most severe structural impediments to sustainable development GNI per capita Human assets index (HAI) Economic vulnerability index (EVI) Under-five mortality rate Percentage of population undernourished Maternal mortality ratio Gross secondary school enrolment ratio Adult literacy rate Population Remoteness Merchandise export concentration Share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in GDP Share of population in low elevated coastal zones Instability of exports of goods and services Victims of natural disasters Instability of agricultural production
- 12. Programme of actionfor LDCs? Programme of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the Decade 2011-2020, Istanbul, Turkey, May 2011 Enable half the number of LDCs to meet the criteria for graduation by 2020 Target: 24 countries 12 https://www.gettyimages.com/event/istanbul-programme-of-action-for- the-least-developed-countries-642473083
- 13. Committee for DevelopmentPolicy (CDP) • The organ officially mandated by the ECOSOC and the UNGA to identify and make recommendations on which countries should belong to the LDC category • A subsidiary body of the ECOSOC • Responsible for under-taking, once every three years, a review of the list of least developed countries (LDCs) 13
- 14. 5 LDCs graduatedso far 1994 • Botswana 2007 • Cabo Verde 2011 • Maldives 2014 • Samoa 2017 • Equatorial Guinea 14 https://vanuatudigest.com/2016/06/15/under-microscope-vanuatu-transition- least-developed-country-status
- 15. Eligibility procedure forinclusion 15 January expert group review CDP (Committee for Development Policy) Preliminary finding: country satisfies inclusion criteria DESA (Development of Economic and Social Affairs) Notifies the country of preliminary finding Between the expert group review and the triennial review DESA Prepares a country assessment note and provides a draft to the country Country Presents a written statement (optional), indicating approval of or objection to the inclusion
- 16. 16 March triennial review CDP Finds the countryeligible DESA Formally notifies the country of eligibility conclusion CDP Submits to ECOSOC the recommendation to include the country, unless the country formally expresses objection After the March triennial review ECOSOC Endorses the CDP recommendation Country Formally notifies the Secretary-General of its acceptance General Assembly Decides to take note of the CDP recommendation Country immediately becomes an LDC and is formally added to the list
- 17. Inclusion criteria Identification ofEligible Countries The inclusion thresholds, as determined by the CDP, must be met for each of the three criteria in one triennial review The Population must be no larger than 75 million inhabitants GNI per capita Human Assets Index (HAI) Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) $1,025 or below 60 or below 36 or above 17
- 18. Per capita GNI(Atlas method) • Per capita GNI using the World Bank Atlas method has outstripped the LDC average since 1996 and has recently risen above the threshold used by the CDP 18
- 19. Progress in EVIand HAI 19 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 EVI threshold (2018) 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 HAI threshold (2018)
- 20. Gross national income(GNI) per capita Rationale Provides information on the income status and the overall level of resources available to a country Thresholds The inclusion threshold - the three- year average of the level of GNI per capita. At the 2018 review it was $ 1,025. The graduation threshold- 20% above the inclusion threshold. At the 2018 review- $ 1,230. The income-only graduation threshold is twice the graduation threshold. At the 2018 review - $ 2,460. Methodology GNI is calculated from national accounts data converted into USD using the World Bank Atlas method GNI per capita is derived by dividing GNI in USD by the annual population of a country Data sources United Nations Statistics Division United Nations Population Division 20
- 21. GNI pc current$US (atlas method) 21
- 22. Human Assets Index(HAI) Rationale A measure of level of human capital Low levels of human assets indicate major structural impediments to sustainable development Thresholds The inclusion threshold = 60 The graduation threshold =66 (10 per cent above the inclusion threshold) 22
- 23.
- 24.
- 25. Rationale A measureof structural vulnerability to economic and environmental shocks High vulnerability indicates major structural impediments to sustainable development Thresholds The inclusion threshold =36 The graduation threshold = 32 (10 per cent below the inclusion threshold) Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)
- 26. Economic Vulnerability Index(EVI) 26
- 27. 25.78 23.21 32.41 25.11 22.25 17.40 34.55 22.75 29.31 29.03 30.26 27.46 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 2006 20092012 2015 EVI Exposure index Shock index 27 Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)
- 28. Year Export concentrati on Remotene ss Agricultural instability Export instability Shares of agriculture, forestry and fisheries Natural Shock index 20000.32 2.28 7.39 2003 0.32 3.05 7.11 2006 0.30 0.59 3.47 7.38 19.83 44.95 2009 0.40 38.97 3.90 7.29 18.87 44.64 2012 0.38 43.27 3.70 7.36 18.78 52.64 2015 0.37 38.88 3.13 6.67 17.03 49.37 28 Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI)
- 29. Bangladesh status (2018triennial review) Criterian 2018 CDP BBS GNI >US$1230 US$1272 US$1274 HAI >66 72.8 73.2 EVI <32 25 25.2 29
- 30. Time frame of the eligibility procedure Year 0 (first triennial review) CDP Findscountry eligible for the first time (eligibility needs to be reconfirmed at the next triennial review) DESA Notifies the country of the first finding Between years 0 and 3 (between first and second triennial review) UNCTAD Prepares a vulnerability profile and provides a draft to the country DESA Prepares an ex ante impact assessment and provides a draft to the country Country Provides comments on the drafts of the UNCTAD profile and the DESA assessment (optional); may present its view on graduation at the CDP expert group meeting preceding the second triennial review Year 3 (second triennial review) CDP Confirms eligibility (second finding); submits the recommendation to ECOSOC, taking into account the graduation criteria and additional information (country statements, the DESA assessment, and the UNCTAD profile) ECOSOC Endorses the CDP recommendation General Assembly Takes note of the CDP recommendation 30
- 31. Between years 3 and 6 GraduatingCountry Establishes consultative mechanism; prepares the transition strategy; reports to the CDP on the preparation of the strategy (optional) UNDP Facilitates consultative group; provides support upon request UN System Provides targeted assistance and capacity-building upon request Development and trading partners Participate in consultative mechanism CDP Monitors development progress of the country during the period; reports annually to ECOSOC Year 6 Graduation becomes effective, country is no longer in the LDC category 31 Time frame of the eligibility procedure
- 32. After year 6 (after graduati on) Graduated country Implementsand monitors the transition strategy; voluntarily submits to the CDP progress reports on its implementation annually for the first three years after graduation, and triennially at two triennial reviews Development and trading partners Support the implementation of the transition strategy; avoid abrupt reduction of LDC-specific support CDP Monitors development progress of graduated country; reports to ECOSOC annually for the first three years after the country’s graduation, and triennially at two triennial reviews 32
- 33. Asymmetries between theinclusion and graduation processes Criteria Inclusion Graduation Number of criteria to be met Three Two Threshold of criteria Established by the CDP Set at higher level than inclusion Population threshold Smaller than 75 million Not relevant Eligibility Determined once Determined twice (over consecutive reviews) Timing Effective immediately Preparatory period (three years) Approval by country Required Not required 33
- 34. Graduation timeline Graduation Year Country Yearof statistical pre-eligibility for graduation Met criteria 1994 Botswana 1991 Income (GDP per capita) + Augmented physical quality of life (APQL) 2007 Cabo Verde 1997 GNI per capita + HAI 2011 Maldives 1997 GNI per capita + HAI 2014 Samoa 1991 Not retained due to probable impact of ODA reduction, 2003- following 2009 tsunami GNI per capita + HAI 2017 Equatorial Guinea 2006 Income only 2020 Vanuatu * 1994 pending completion of vulnerability review, 2006 deferred graduation Income, HAI 34
- 35. 2021 Angola *2012 Income only 2021 Bhutan * 2015 Income, HAI 2021 Nepal * 2015 HAI, EVI 2021 Sao Tome and Principe * 2015 Income, HAI 2021 Solomon Islands * 2015 Income, HAI 2021 Timor-Leste * 2015 Income only 2024 Afghanistan (may be delayed, in view of its lingering security concerns) 2018 HAI, EVI 2024 Bangladesh 2018 Income, HAI, EVI 2024 Djibouti 2018 Income, HAI, EVI 2024 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 2018 Income, EVI 2024 Myanmar 2018 HAI, EVI 2024 Yemen (May be delayed, in view of its lingering security concerns) 2018 HAI, EVI (2018); Income, HAI, EVI (2021) 35 Graduation timeline
- 36. March 2018 andonward Country Actions Remains in the LDC category and is entitled to receive all benefits available to LDCs Prepares a national transition strategy and establishes a consultative mechanism to facilitate its preparation in cooperation with development partners May seek assistance from the United Nations system in the preparation of the transition strategy Voluntarily reports on the preparation of the transition strategy to the CDP on an annual basis CDP actions Monitors the development progress of the country and submits an annual report to ECOSOC Report provides information on the preparation of the transition strategy, if provided by the country 36
- 37. Smooth transition strategy Aims to ensure that development efforts are not disrupted by graduation Focuses on expected implications of loss of LDC status and associated special support measures Presents a comprehensive and coherent set of specific measures 37 http://www.dailynews.lk/2018/01/18/business/140252/bangladesh-exports- await-blow-graduating-ldc
- 38. International support measuresfor LDCs International trade development assistance (technical & financial) general support and other forms of assistance 38 http://drvidyahattangadi.com/some-inspiring-self- sufficient-indian-villages/
- 39. Support measures andspecial treatment related to trade Preferential market access: goods and services Special and differential treatment (SDT) related to WTO obligations ((i) increased market access; (ii) safeguarding of the interests of LDCs; (iii) increased flexibility for LDCs in rules and disciplines governing trade measures; (iv) extension of longer transitional periods to LDCs; and (v) provision of technical assistance Support measures related to capacity-building in trade 39 https://bridgeafricaconsulting.com/services/logistics-and-trade- support-services-in-africa/
- 40. Official development assistance(ODA) Bilateral assistance 0.15- 0.20 per cent of their GNI Multilateral assistance (UNCDF, UNFCCC) UN Capital Development Fund UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 40
- 41. General Support Travelbenefits, scholarships and research grants Budget gaps Support for graduation from the LDC category 41
- 42. Loss from graduation Erosion of preferences export loss (8% of export (CPD), 5.5-7.5 (UNCTAD) No DF-QF market access SDT provisions for the LDCs in the WTO From low cost IDA- high cost IRBD preferential climate financing from infrastructure development fund, climate change adaptation funds and technology-related green climate fund Shrinking ODA (7% of total ODA)
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- 44.
- 45. The share ofgrant in ODA has been shrinking 45
- 46.
- 47. The woods arelovely, dark and deep, But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep.
- 48.