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Labor market update (March 2017)
- 1. UNITED STATES LABORMARKET UPDATE PREPARED BY: MONSTER INSIGHTS | MARCH 2017
- 2. Growth has averagedabout 2% a year since 2010, fueled by a surge in hiring that has reduced the unemployment rate to an eight-year low U.S. LABOR MARKET UPDATE • U.S. adds 235,000 new jobs in February signaling steady growth ahead • The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.7% mostly because more people were looking for work and fewer people gave up looking for work • The labor force participation rate ticked up slightly to 63.0% • The size of the labor force was increased by 340,000 people • 4th-quarter GDP slowed to an annual rate of 1.9%, primarily due to a wider trade deficit • Average wages rose 0.2% to $26.09 an hour last month as companies pay more to attract or maintain talent
- 3. U.S. JOB REPORTHEADLINES: FEB 2017 “America's Labor Market Is Getting Better by Almost Any Measure” – Bloomberg “President Trump's First Jobs Report Crushes Expectations” – Business Insider “US created 235,000 jobs in Feb, vs 190,000 expected” - CNBC “Strong job growth makes Fed rate hike almost certain” - USA Today “Steady U.S. Job Growth Sets Stage for Fed to Raise Interest Rates” - New York Times “US added 235K jobs in February, making Fed rate hike likely” - Washington Post
- 4. U.S. CURRENT EMPLOYMENTSITUATION: FEB 2017 Change from January 2017 Total non-farm payroll: +235,000 Private-sector payroll: +227,000 • Construction +58K • Professional/Business Services +37K • Manufacturing +28K • Healthcare +27K • Leisure/Hospitality +26K • Transportation +9K • Finance +7K • Retail -26K Temporary Help: +3,000 Government: +8,000 160MM IN THE U.S. WORKFORCE 7.5MM UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN THE U.S. 5.5MM AVAILABLE JOBS IN THE U.S. +1.9% U.S. GDP IN Q4 2016 (Second Estimate) 63.0% U.S. LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE 4.7% U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
- 5. U.S. CIVILIAN WORKFORCE InFebruary 2017, the number of people in the U.S. who had jobs or were seeking employment amounted to 160.1 million; an increase of 340,000 (+0.2%) from January and remained higher than the year prior, an increase of 1.2 million (+0.7%). The size of the labor force has increased by 226,000 people in the past five months. The Labor Force (aka Workforce) is the sum of employed and unemployed persons in the U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 6. U.S. UNEMPLOYED WORKFORCE TheU.S. unemployment dipped to 4.7% in February 2017. The unemployment rate peaked in October 2009 at 10.0% and is now 5.3 percentage points lower. The number of unemployed people in the U.S. is now 7,528,000 a decrease of 107,000 (-1.4%) from January and lower than the year prior, a decrease of 317,000 (-1.4%). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 7. U.S. EMPLOYMENT (NON-FARM) TheU.S. created 235,000 new jobs in February 2017 (+0.2%) from January. Job creation reflects the 77th consecutive month of job gains. Over the year jobs increased by 2.3 million (+1.6%) The US has added an average of 196,000 jobs each month over the past 12-months. New jobs increased by 916,000 jobs in the past five months. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 8. U.S. TEMPORARY HELPEMPLOYMENT Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics There were nearly 3.0 million temporary help jobs in the U.S. in February 2017. The number of persons employed in U.S. temporary help jobs increased by 3,100 (+0.1%) jobs over the month and rose by 91,000 (+3.2%) from the year prior. Temporary help services employment has traditionally been viewed as a leading economic indicator to overall employment or the general economy. The temporary help services industry is the largest component of the staffing industry and is comprised of companies that employ workers to do temporary work on the premises of, and under the supervision of, customers.
- 9. U.S. JOB OPENINGS Therewere 5.5 million job openings on the last business day of December 2016, a slight decrease of 4,000 jobs (-0.1%). Job openings rose by 220,000 jobs (+4.2%) since the year prior. The number of quits was little changed in December at about 3.0 million. The quits rate dipped from 2.1% to 2.0%. The quits rate is a proxy for worker confidence as willingness to leave a job usually indicates a better job is on the horizon. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics UPDATE/DELETE
- 10. U.S. LABOR PARTICIPATIONRATE The U.S. labor force participation ticked up to 63.0% in February. The participation rate peaked in 2000 at 67.3%. Participation was at a post-peak low of 62.4% in September 2015 and is currently 0.6 percentage points higher. The participation rate measures the active portion of the labor force; the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 11. U.S. GDP The U.S.Real GDP was $16,804.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9% (second estimate), down from an increase of 3.5% in the third quarter but up from 0.9% a year ago. Real GDP is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
- 12. U.S. AVERAGE HOURLYEARNINGS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Average hourly earnings increased +0.2% to $26.09 an hour in February pushing the annual gain in 2016 to 2.8%. Average Hourly Earnings is the average amount employees make per hour in a given month. In other words, it the price businesses pay for labor. The Federal Reserve uses average hourly earnings in deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates.
- 13. U.S. BEVERIDGE CURVE Jobopenings continue to climb, yet unemployment remains higher than pre- recession levels. In December 2016, the job openings rate was 3.6% and the unemployment rate was 4.7%. The job openings rate corresponds to a higher unemployment rate than it did before the most recent recession. From 2010 to today, nearly each month’s point moved up and to the left as the job openings rate increased and the unemployment rate decreased. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Editor's Notes
- #3 The economy has added almost half a million jobs in the first two months of 2017, the best back-to-back performance since last summer. The U.S. has expanded steadily for years, putting millions of people back to work and driving unemployment rate to an eight-year low. As the pool of available workers shrinks, companies have to pay more to attract or maintain talent. Average wages rose 0.2% to $26.09 an hour last month.
- #4 News Release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Schedule: Monthly, FIRST FRIDAY OF MONTH
- #5 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining. In February, construction employment increased by 58,000, with gains in specialty trade contractors (+36,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (+15,000). Construction has added 177,000 jobs over the past 6 months. Employment in private educational services rose by 29,000 in February, following little change in the prior month (-5,000). Over the year, employment in the industry has grown by 105,000. Manufacturing added 28,000 jobs in February. Employment rose in food manufacturing (+9,000) and machinery (+7,000) but fell in transportation equipment (-6,000). Over the past 3 months, manufacturing has added 57,000 jobs. Health care employment rose by 27,000 in February, with a job gain in ambulatory health care services (+18,000). Over the year, health care has added an average of 30,000 jobs per month. Employment in mining increased by 8,000 in February, with most of the gain occurring in support activities for mining (+6,000). Mining employment has risen by 20,000 since reaching a recent low in October 2016. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in February (+37,000). The industry has added 597,000 jobs over the year. Retail trade employment edged down in February (-26,000), following a gain of 40,000 in the prior month. Over the month, job losses occurred in general merchandise stores (-19,000); sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (-9,000); and electronics and appliance stores (-8,000). Employment in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little or no change over the month. http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate CES0500000001 CES2000000001 CES3000000001 CES4200000001 CES4300000001 CES5000000001 CES5500000001 CES6000000001 CES6561000001 CES6562000101 CES7000000001 CES8000000001 CES9000000001
- #6 Civilian Labor Force = 160.1 MILLION YOY = +1.2M (+0.7%) MOM = +340K (+0.2%) CONSECUTIVE GROWTH = +32 MOS YOY, +3 MOS MOM 3 MOS CHANGE = +600K 5 MOS CHANGE = +226K 10 MOS CHANGE = +1.1MM Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm Schedule: Monthly, FIRST FRIDAY OF MONTH The term Civilian labor force is used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to describe the subset of Americans who have jobs or are seeking a job, are at least 16 years old, are not serving in the military and are not institutionalized. In other words, all Americans who are eligible to work in the everyday U.S. economy.
- #7 Unemployment Rate = 4.7% Peak = 10.0% (10/2009) Low = 4.6% (11/2016) Unemployment Level = 7.5MM YOY = -317K (-4.0%) MOM = -107K (-1.4%) CONSECUTIVE GROWTH =-5MOS YOY, -1MOS MOM Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm Schedule: Monthly, FIRST FRIDAY OF MONTH
- #8 Nonfarm Payroll: YOY = +2.3MM (+1.6%) MOM = +235K (+0.2%) CONSECUTIVE GROWTH = +78 MOS YOY, +77MOS MOM 3 MOS CHANGE = +628K 5 MOS CHANGE = +916K 10 MOS CHANGE = +2.0MM 12M AVG Annual Growth = +2.9MM 12M AVG Monthly Growth = +196K http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth Schedule: Monthly, FIRST FRIDAY OF MONTH
- #9 Temporary Help Services within Prof/Biz Industry YOY = +91.0K (+3.2%) MOM = +3.1K (+0.1%) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm (Table B-1) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES6056132001
- #10 Job Openings: News Release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm Data: Openings - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS00000000JOL Quits - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS00000000QUL Quits Rate - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS00000000QUR Schedule: Monthly, SECOND TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWIN MONTH (e.g., Jan 2015 => 10 Mar 2015)
- #11 Participation Rate Current = 63.0 Peak = 67.3 (2000) Low = 62.4 (9/2015) Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm Schedule: Monthly, FIRST FRIDAY OF MONTH The term Participation Rate is used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to describe the subset of Americans eligible to work who participated in the job market.
- #12 Real GDP: CURRENT = +1.9% LAST QUARTER = +3.5% LAST YEAR =+0.9% News Release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm Dollar Data: http://bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls Change Data: http://bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls Schedule: Quarterly (advanced), FOURTH WEEK AFTER QUARTER ENDS, Quarterly (final), THREE MONTHS AFTER THE QUARTER ENDS The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2017. GDP shows economy slows to 1.9% growth Wider trade deficit slashes GDP, but consumers keep spending The U.S. economy’s expansion slowed in the fourth quarter, and annual growth failed to reach 3% for an 11th straight year, reflecting the huge hurdles the Trump administration faces in trying to speed up a 7½-year-old expansion Gross domestic product, the official score card for the economy, expanded at a 1.9% annual clip from October to December, the Commerce Department said For the full year, the U.S. grew just 1.6%, compared with its 2.6% clip in 2015. It was the weakest performance since 2011. The last time the U.S. topped 3% growth — the historical average is 3.3% — was in 2005 A wider trade deficit — a negative for GDP — was by far the biggest anchor in the fourth quarter. The economy would have topped 3% growth if the trade gap has basically been unchanged
- #13 AVG Hourly Earnings: $25.78 YOY = +0.71 cents (+2.8%) was $25.46 MOM = +0.06 cents (+0.2%) was $26.03 http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate CES0500000003 Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. In February, average hourly earnings grew by 2.8% from the prior year, well about the disappointing 2.5% rate in January. Hourly wages rose 0.2% to $26.09 an hour. Over the past 12 months wages have climbed 2.8%—faster than the less than 2% annual gains that prevailed through most of the recovery.
- #14 http://www.bls.gov/web/jolts/jlt_labstatgraphs.pdf The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between Job Openings and the Unemployment Level, which reflects the state of the business cycle. Typically, the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate is tight (known as the Beveridge Curve). During an expansion, the unemployment rate is low and the job openings rate is high. Conversely, during a contraction, the unemployment rate is high and the job openings rate is low. The position of the curve is determined by the efficiency of the labor market. For example, a greater mismatch between available jobs and the unemployed in terms of skills or location would cause the curve to shift outward, up and toward the right. From the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, each month’s point on the curve moved lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose. From 2010 to the present, the point moved up and to the left as the job openings rate increased and the unemployment rate decreased. The outward shift in the Beveridge Curve may be due to a greater mismatch between available jobs and the unemployment in terms of skills or location, or that employers are delaying hiring due to economic uncertainty.