Futuro de las preferencias comerciales andinas para Ecuador

1. www.thedialogue.org Wednesday, October 3, 2012
FEATURED Q&A
BOARD OF ADVISORS
Is Ecuador in Danger of Losing U.S. Trade Preferences?
Diego Arria Jon Huenemann
U.S. industry groups, including
Q
Director, Vice President, sumers and businesses with increased
Columbus Group U.S. & Int'l Affairs, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce freedom for Ecuadorean products that
Philip Morris and the National Association of have been recognized as low cost and high
Genaro Arriagada International
Nonresident Senior
Manufacturers, earlier this quality, without competing with U.S.
Fellow, James R. Jones month called on the Obama administration products. The ATPA is also in the security
Inter-American Co-chair, to suspend Ecuador's trade benefits under interests of the United States and the
Dialogue Manatt Jones the Andean Trade Preference Act. The entire hemisphere, as it remains an
Global Strategies LLC groups say Ecuador has flouted due important tool for Ecuador's fight against
Joyce Chang
Global Head of Craig Kelly process and failed to respect the rights of narcotics trade in the Andean region.
Emerging Markets Vice President, Americans who have invested in the South Contrary to the claims of Chevron and its
Research, JPMorgan The Cohen Group American country. Is Ecuador in danger of partners that it supports financially,
Chase & Co. losing U.S. trade preferences? What is the Ecuador has always acted in good faith
John Maisto
W. Bowman Cutter Director, current investment climate in the country?
Former Partner,
Continued on page 2
U.S. Education Finance What would be the consequences for
E.M. Warburg Group
Pincus
Ecuador's economy if it loses the trade
Nicolás Mariscal preferences?
Dirk Donath Chairman,
Managing Director, Grupo Marhnos Nathalie Cely, Ecuador's
A
Eton Park Capital
Management Thomas F. ambassador to the United
McLarty III States: "As many local U.S. busi-
Jane Eddy President, nesses have attested to via letters
Managing Director, McLarty Associates
Corporate & Govt.
to the U.S. Trade Representative, the U.S.-
Ratings Group, Carlos Paz-Soldan Ecuador relationship remains strong, and
Standard & Poor's Partner, Ecuador continues to prove a stable and
DTB Associates, LLP reliable partner for U.S. investors and
Marlene Fernández
Corporate Vice Beatrice Rangel businesses. According to the most recent Region's Economic Growth to
President for Director, USTR report, more than $5.5 billion in Slow This Year to 3.2%: ECLAC
Government Relations, AMLA Consulting LLC U.S. goods are exported to Ecuador each
Arcos Dorados year—helping fuel American jobs and Economic growth in Latin America and
José Antonio Ríos
Jason Hafemeister Chief Executive Officer, economic growth. Additionally, the ATPA the Caribbean will slow this year to 3.2
Vice President, Vadium Technology Inc. is essential for economic growth and jobs percent, lower than previously expected,
Allen F. Johnson & in Ecuador, sustaining thousands of jobs the Economic Commission for Latin
Andrés Rozental
Associates for farmers, transportation and distribu- America and the Caribbean, led by Alicia
President,
Peter Hakim Rozental & Asociados tion employees, and vendors and con- Bárcena, announced Tuesday. See story
President Emeritus, and Senior Fellow, sumers both in the United States and on page 2.
Inter-American Brookings Institution Ecuador. A healthy and open trade rela-
Dialogue File Photo: United Nations.
Everett Santos tionship also provides American con-
Donna Hrinak President,
President,
Boeing Brazil
DALEC LLC Inside This Issue
Shelly Shetty
Head, Latin America FEATURED Q&A: Is Ecuador in Danger CIA May Have Been Targeted
Sovereign Ratings, of Losing U.S. Trade Preferences?......................1 in Mexico Shooting: Official .................................3
Fitch Inc.-Start Content-
Economic Growth in Region Seen Banco do Brasil Unlikely to Issue
Slowing to 3.2% This Year: ECLAC.......................2 Additional Debt After $1.75 Bn Sale ...................3
Santos Administration Proposes The Dialogue Continues: What Did Peña Nieto
Tax Reform to Cut Unemployment ......................2 Accomplish on His Latin American Tour?. .........3
Copyright © 2012, Inter-American Dialogue Page 1 of 4

2. Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor Wednesday, October 3, 2012
NEWS BRIEFS Economic News largest economy, a reduction from its pre-
vious forecast of 3 percent. Panama is
Santos Administration Proposes expected to post the largest economic
Tax Reform to Cut Unemployment Economic Growth in Region Seen expansion this year, at 9.5 percent, fol-
Colombian Finance Minister Slowing to 3.2% This Year: ECLAC lowed by Haiti's 6 percent, according to
Mauricio Cárdenas plans to present the agency. Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica,
Economic growth in Latin America and Nicaragua and Venezuela are forecast to
tax reform legislation to Congress as
the Caribbean will slow this year to 3.2 grow by approximately 5 percent, while
the administration seeks to cut the
percent from last year's 4.3 percent, main- Mexico will see 4 percent growth, it added.
country's high rate of unemploy- ly due to weaker growth rates in Brazil and
ment, Bloomberg News reported Argentina, the Economic Commission for
Tuesday. Colombia's unemployment Latin America and the Caribbean said
rate was 9.7 percent in August, high- The new figure is lower than the
Tuesday, BBC News reported. The new fig-
er than most of the region's major ure also was lower than the 3.7 percent 3.7 percent growth rate that
economies. The proposed legislation rate that ECLAC had predicted in June.
ECLAC had predicted in June.
would lower the tax burden that "Weakness in the global economy, caused
employers must pay to the govern- mainly by difficulties in Europe, the
ment for each worker and would United States and China, has affected
also simplify the sales tax regime growth in Latin America and the The only country in the region expected to
Caribbean," ECLAC said in a statement. experience an economic contraction is
and help reduce tax evasion, said
The report by the U.N. agency, which is Paraguay, whose economy could shrink by
Cárdenas.
led by Alicia Bárcena, said private con- 2 percent. As a sub-region, the Caribbean
Fitch Ups Bolivia's Credit sumption in the region is "the main driver is expected to post 1.6 percent growth,
Rating to BB-minus of regional growth, thanks to the growth ECLAC said. For next year, the U.N.
in labor markets, increased credit and—in agency said Latin America and the
Fitch Ratings upgraded Bolivia's some cases—remittances." Brazil and Caribbean are likely to experience 4 per-
credit rating to BB-minus on Argentina are expected to post relatively cent growth, Reuters reported. It expects
Tuesday, bringing it in line with the slow growth, with Brazil's economy grow- Brazil's growth to pick up to 4 percent in
ratings of Standard & Poor's and ing 1.6 percent this year and Argentina 2013, with Mexico also seeing 4 percent
Moody's Investors Service, Reuters expanding 2 percent, said ECLAC. Brazil's growth. ECLAC predicted Argentina's
reported. Fitch cited moderate infla- finance ministry most recently said it economic expansion will be 3.5 percent
tion, diversification of financing, expects 2 percent growth in the region's next year.
stable currency and improvements Featured Q&A
in the country's debt profile. Continued from page 1
However, "accommodative policies,
Ramiro Crespo, president of
A
and complied with unfavorable final
rapid credit growth and rising real
judgments. To cite two recent examples, Analytica Securities in Quito:
estate prices, if sustained, could cases involving Occidental and Duke "The ATPA is linked to
increase vulnerabilities in the broad- Energy resulted in rulings unfavorable Ecuador's cooperation in fight-
er financial system," Fitch said. to Ecuador. In both cases, the govern- ing illegal drug production and traffick-
ment complied with the judgments and ing. The influence of narcotics cartels
Scotiabank Names Wright
compensated the appropriate parties. It may well be growing here, but to accuse
as CEO of Mexican Unit
is also worth recalling that Ecuador has Ecuador of failing to cooperate with U.S.
Toronto-based Bank of Nova Scotia, been awarded many rulings favorable to law enforcement efforts is unfair and
or Scotiabank, has named Troy its position. We reject any attempts by thus there is no reason to strip it of its
Wright as the president and chief Chevron and its partners to mislead benefits under ATPA. That said, it is very
executive officer of its Mexican unit, U.S. investors and policymakers, and are bad for Ecuadorean exporters, U.S.
The Canadian Press reported troubled by its attempts to hold thou- importers and investors of whichever
Tuesday. He most recently was the sands of American and Ecuadorean jobs nationality that Ecuador's government
hostage to further its own self-interests. has, for more than five years, failed to
bank's executive vice president of
We remain confident that the relation- design and implement an international
retail distribution for Canada.
ship will continue to thrive and provide trade policy that safeguards its access to
Wright previously worked in several economic and security benefits for all its most important export markets, the
capacities for Scotiabank in Latin our people." United States and the European Union.
America, including as its chief exec-
utive of operations in Puerto Rico. Continued on page 4
Copyright © 2012, Inter-American Dialogue Page 2 of 4

3. Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Political News
The Dialogue Continues
CIA May Have Been Targeted What Did Peña Nieto Accomplish on His Latin American Tour?
in Mexico Shooting: Official
Q
Strong circumstantial evidence suggests Mexican President-elect However, Peña Nieto is focused on
that Mexican federal police officers who Enrique Peña Nieto said Sept. improving the economy and has a plan
fired on a U.S. Embassy vehicle in August 17 that he seeks a 'closer and to strengthen free trade with the rest of
may have been targeting the occupants in more solid relationship' with Latin America in order to achieve
an assassination attempt for an organized Guatemala. He made the statement in greater diversification and reduce the
crime group, the Associated Press report- the Central American nation at the vulnerabilities associated with the eco-
ed Tuesday, citing a senior U.S. official. A beginning of a weeklong tour that also nomic challenges of the United States.
Mexican official familiar with the case took him to Colombia, Brazil, Chile, In this sense, the Pacific Alliance, made
also told the wire service that authorities Argentina and Peru. What did the trip up by Chile, Peru, Colombia and
are looking into whether the Beltran accomplish? What parts of the relation- Mexico, has a lot of potential to
Leyva drug cartel was behind the attack, ship between Mexico and Central increase trade with the emerging
which happened Aug. 24 on a rural road American countries need to be economies of Asia. Also in this area, in
near Cuernavaca. "That's not a 'We're strengthened? What are the most criti- order to expand leadership and trade,
trying to shake down a couple people for cal economic and business ties Mexico needs to generate a more coop-
a traffic violation sort of operation. between Mexico and South America? erative relationship with Brazil to build
That's a 'We are specifically trying to kill a Latin American development corri-
Nicolás Mariscal, member of
A
the people in this vehicle'," an unnamed dor driven by these two poles. Several
U.S. official told the the Advisor board and chair- countries in Latin America are stuck in
AP. "This is not a man of Grupo Marhnos in the middle-income trap and in order to
'Whoops, we got the Mexico City: "The main escape it, need economic policies that
wrong people.' " Two achievement of President-elect Enrique are much more aggressive and prag-
CIA officers were Peña Nieto's tour was that it communi- matic. Every Latin American country is
wounded in the cated the message that the next govern- valuable for Mexico's foreign relations
shooting. Federal ment has the political will to pay more and there are specific issues to deeply
police have said that attention to Central and South develop. For example, security with
the officers were America in order to promote the Colombia, the oil industry with Brazil,
Ostick investigating a kid- region's development and address the strengthening of democracy and
File Photo: MercoPress.
napping in the area issues of common social and economic social gains with Chile and a common
and shot at the concern with renewed strategies. A agenda against organized crime with
embassy SUV by mistake. The U.S. State growing challenge is the globalization Guatemala."
Department declined to comment on the of crime in its various forms: drug traf-
case. "We will not comment on an ongo- ficking, human trafficking and
ing investigation," said State Department weapons trafficking, among others, Editor's note: The above is a continua-
spokesman William Ostick. "This is a which should be addressed interna- tion of a Q&A published in the Sept. 27
matter of great significance to both our tionally with common policies. issue of the Advisor.
countries and we will continue to coop-
erate with Mexican authorities in their
investigation." In addition to the two CIA Company News Pereira Coelho, the bank's managing direc-
officers, the SUV was carrying a Mexican tor for finance, told the wire service. The
navy captain. The vehicle was headed to a Banco do Brasil Unlikely to Issue bank's debt sale this week was its largest-
military installation when a carload of Additional Debt After $1.75 Bn Sale ever such offering, said Coelho. The senior
gunmen opened fire and began chasing dollar-denominated bonds, rated by
it. Three other cars then began chasing Banco do Brasil is not likely to sell addi- Moody's as baa1, were sold at 98.98 cents
the SUV as gunmen of all four vehicles tional debt this year after it generated $1.75 on the dollar for a yield of 4 percent. The
shot at it, according to the Mexican navy. billion on Tuesday through the sale of 10- last time the bank sold similar securities
Twelve Mexican police officers have been year debt, a top executive at Brazil's largest was in 2010. The sale helped to boost con-
detained in connection with the shooting lender said Tuesday, Reuters reported. fidence in Brazilian bank bonds after the
and are being held under a form of house Banco do Brasil has "attained the goal of recent liquidation of Banco Cruzeiro do
arrest. Fifty-one officers have testified in perfecting its yield curve thanks to very fre- Sul, which may result in bondholders los-
the case. quent issuances," said José Mauricio ing their investments.
Copyright © 2012, Inter-American Dialogue Page 3 of 4

4. Inter-American Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor Wednesday, October 3, 2012
-End Content-
Featured Q&A
Continued from page 2 Latin America Advisor
is published every business day by the
ATPA is a dying policy, as officials have comment. USTR's 2012 report to Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2012
acknowledged. But while competitors in Congress is the sixth; it concludes the Erik Brand
Central and South America enjoy duty- program continues to make progress but General Manager, Publishing
free access to the United States, the that Ecuador has failed to comply with ebrand@thedialogue.org
Correa administration, for reasons of ide- the terms of the bilateral investment Gene Kuleta
ology and propaganda, has preferred to treaty between Ecuador and the United Editor
aim for marginal new markets, particu- States. The ATPA expires in July 2013. gkuleta@thedialogue.org
larly Iran, with no tangible economic suc- The U.S. government will likely consider Rachel Sadon
cess and a severe loss of international whether to reauthorize ATPA/ATPDEA Reporter, Assistant Editor
prestige. ATPA has the drawback that it which today benefits only Ecuador. rsadon@thedialogue.org
requires a periodic review, making it Much has changed in the region since
more difficult for investors, suppliers and this legislation was enacted in 2002. The
U.S. importers to calculate whether con- resource nationalism of some left leaning Inter-American Dialogue
ditions will remain stable in the mid- and governments in the Latin America, espe-
long-terms. A trade agreement under any cially during record high oil prices in Michael Shifter, President
label would be a vast improvement for all 2006-2008, now seems to be yielding to Peter Hakim, President Emeritus
concerned, including importers who can increased pragmatism. Today, the region Genaro Arriagada, Nonresident Senior Fellow
rely on their suppliers, exporters on their is looking for international investors to
Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow
buyers and company employees in both help develop big, deep or unconvention-
countries. For Ecuador, a free trade agree- al resources with new technology. China Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects
ment could help industries with higher has invested heavily in Ecuador but more Maria Darie, Director, Finance & Administration
employment and value-added, rather investment and new technology will be Paul Isbell, Visiting Senior Fellow
than oil, which will of course continue to needed. Treating existing investors fairly Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow
enter the United States duty free." helps attract new ones. Ecuador's presi-
Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow
dential elections are next February and
Myles Frechette, international Margaret Myers, Director,
A
Rafael Correa will likely be re-elected.
China and Latin America Program
trade and business consultant The ATPA/ATPDEA creates 320,000
and former U.S. ambassador to Ecuadorean jobs. These jobs allow Manuel Orozco, Director, Remittances
and Development Program
Colombia: "The Andean Trade Ecuador to maintain counternarcotics
Preference Act (ATPA), as amended by cooperation, not only with the United Tamara Ortega Goodspeed, Senior
Associate, Education
the Andean Trade Preference and Drug States but regionally, because the grow-
Eradication Act (ATPDEA), requires the ing regional demand for drugs has great- Jeffrey Puryear, Vice President, Social Policy
office of the United States Trade ly increased transnational crime. If the
Representative (USTR) to submit a year- United States were to reauthorize this
Latin America Advisor is published every
ly report to Congress on the operation of legislation, Ecuadorean public support business day, except for major U.S. holidays, by
this legislation. The law's objectives are for President Correa might allow him to the Inter-American Dialogue at:
to promote economic development, seek a more permanent trade arrange- 1211 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 510
diversify exports, consolidate democracy ment with the United States." Washington, DC 20036
and reduce narcotrafficking by providing Phone: 202-822-9002 Fax: 202-822-9553
www.thedialogue.org ISSN 2163-7962
sustainable economic alternatives to
drug crop production. The petitions for The Advisor welcomes reactions to the Subscription Inquiries are welcomed at
suspending Ecuador's benefits under Q&A above. Readers can write editor freetrial@thedialogue.org
ATPA/ATPDEA by business groups are in Gene Kuleta at gkuleta@thedialogue.org
The opinions expressed by the members of the
response to USTR's latest request for with comments. Board of Advisors and by guest commentators do
not necessarily represent those of the publisher. The
analysis is the sole view of each Advisor and does not
necessarily represent the views of their respective
employers or firms. The information in this report
has been obtained from reliable sources, but neither
Latin America Advisor its accuracy and completeness, nor the opinions
based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any ques-
See farther. tions relating to the contents of this publication,
contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American
Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be repro-
duced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
SUBSCRIBE TODAY without prior written permission from the publisher.
Copyright © 2012, Inter-American Dialogue Page 4 of 4