L17 The Mobile Revolution
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The ideas for cellular phones were developed in the 1940s. However, it was not until the microprocessor becomes available that practical commercial solutions are possible. Today there are more than 4.7 billion unique mobile phone subscriptions in the world and of them about 2 billion are smartphones. This device is so powerful that people check it over 40 times a day. In this lecture we look mobile. We also look at the history of communication since the telegraph and how the mobile market developed in the 80s and 90s until the iPhone was released in 2007. That same year Western Union stopped sending telegraph messages.
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L17 The Mobile Revolution
- 1. LECTURE L17 THE MOBILE REVOLUTION
- 4. Why is the mobile phone so important to us?
- 5. 400M daily circulations of all newspapers 800M registered cars 900M total cable/satellite TV subscribers 1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...) 1.2B total landline phones 1.5B total TV sets 1.7B total unique holders of credit cards 2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts 3.9B total FM radios in use
- 8. There are officially more mobile devices than people in the world Source and image: The Independent
- 9. There are more mobile phones in the world than there are toothbrushes Mobile Phones
- 10. Will grow to 8 billion phones in the next few years Image: Nokia Mobile Phones
- 11. Why is the mobile phone so important to us? Q1
- 13. Survival
- 14. In 2011, there were 48 million people in the world who have a mobile phone but do not have electricity at home Mobile Phones provide safety Cisco, January 2011
- 15. The History of Communication
- 16. Wars have been won on intelligence and the speed of communications Militaries and business community on the forefront on the development of rapid communication Communication
- 17. Early 19th century the horse dominated Stage coaches and pony express The railroads changed this Then came electricity Communication
- 18. Timeline From 1820 to 1880 discoveries in radio and electromagnetism
- 19. The Second Industrial Revolution The period 1870-1914 Innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries Adjacent Possible Growth period
- 20. Electromagnetism and Radio Foundation for electronic communications New markets for communication Telegraph Telephone Wireless Telegraph Communication
- 21. The Telegraph From the Greek words tele = far and graphein = write (símriti) Later to be called the “Victorian Internet”
- 22. Simple device with battery and key for sending electric signals At the other end was a similar device emitting sound or printing the signal The Telegraph
- 23. The Telegraph Samuel F. B. Morse invented the first practical telegraph in 1837 Granted a patent 1838 Moore devised a telegraphic code consisting of dots and dashes Shorter and longer electric impulse send down the wire - The Morse Code Standardized messages
- 24. The Telephone Invented in 1876 At the time, the telegraph was dominant Transferred sound waves with electric current over wire Alexander G. Bell Created the first practical telephone Based on experiments and improvements in technology at the time
- 25. The Telephone Bell was working on the harmonic telegraph A device that could send more then one telegraph message at the same time Worked with skilled machinist named Thomas A. Watson Joseph Henry encouraged him in 1875 to work on the telephone instead of the harmonic telegraph
- 26. The telephone was based on variable resistance (breytilegu viðnámi) The Telephone
- 27. The Importance of Patents Bell filed a notice for a patent Feb. 14, 1876 “The most valuable patent ever issued” Elisha Gray also filed a patent that same day The Patent Mystery It is still a mystery what happened that day Did Bell see Gray’s patent and update his? Over 600 legal battles would challenge the patent
- 28. Commercial Development Bell had difficulty convincing contemporaries of the usefulness of the telephone - the telegraph prevailed Difficult to get investment Bell offered the patent to Western Union for $100.000 which they declined Bell continued and slowly telephones started to replace telegraphs
- 29. The Bell Company In 1877 Bell and his backers formed the first Bell Company Business model: Bell Company leased telephones and licensed franchises instead of selling them
- 30. The Battle with Western Union Bell sued Western Union for patent infringements and settled in 1879 Bell agreed not to go into the telegraph market, and Western Union agreed not to go into the telephone market Bell would buy Western Union’s telephone network with 50.000 subscribers in 50 cities and pay a license Stock in Bell’s company rose from $50 to $500 in 1879
- 31. History At the dawn of the 20th century, two mediums for communication were dominant The telegraph: Became important in the American Civil War (1861-65), dominated by Western Union The telephone: Dominant technology with the growth of Bell Both these technologies had one problem: they were wire-based
- 32. Wireless Telegraph Guglielmo Marconi saw an opportunity in wireless communication Studied physics at the University of Bologna Several experiments in 1894 in Bologna, Italy Marconi’s goal was to use his knowledge developed in telephony
- 33. The Product Marconi was improving the telegraph “Spark Transmitter” where signals could represent the Morse code Potential market: Maritime market – British Royal Navy Transatlantic communication
- 34. Skepticism and Competition Many scientists were happy to point out flaws in Marconi’s inventions Doubts that wireless had any application Limitations – radios worded on fixed frequency Security – anyone could listen in The telegraph was initially 20 times faster Cable companies showed no interest in wireless
- 35. The Wireless Telegraph Bubble Wireless Telegraph was popular in the press Many companies competed for stock funding Resulted in Stock inflations - “The Wireless Telegraph bubble” Sceptic voices started to respond Series of articles in Success Magazine, “Fools and their money” appeared 1907
- 36. Government Regulation No regulations controlled the airwaves The sinking of RMS Titanic prompted governments to set international standards of communication The Marconi operator on the Titanic sent “C.Q.D” C.Q. meant attention, D was for Distress SOS is ... - - - ...
- 39. Wireless Communication Around 1940 ideas for wireless communication were established It was not until the development of microchips and technology for building devices, that wireless communication became practical for individuals Rules and cautiousness were to delay the progress Also investments in land based systems
- 40. Wireless Communication Wireless communication started early 20th century Wireless radio was important in WWII Many innovations such as spread spectrum and frequency hopping
- 41. Hedwig Eva Maria Kiesler 1913-2000 "Films have a certain place in a certain time period. Technology is forever” - Hedy Lamarr
- 42. Wireless Communication After the war, use of wireless was restricted to certain profession (police, military, taxis) Not public solutions The ideas for mobile radio networks were developed in the 1940s Area of radio cells – Cellular network
- 43. Wireless technology and the idea of building a network of cells was understood in 1940s. Why did the public mobile phone not appear until in the late 1970s, early 80s?
- 45. The Digital Revolution The enabling technologies - adjacent possible
- 46. Early Systems The First Cell phone (1973) Name: Motorola Dyna-Tac Size: 9 x 5 x 1.75 inches Weight: 2.5 pounds Display: None Number of Circuit Boards: 30 Talk time: 35 minutes Recharge Time: 10 hours Features: Talk, listen, dial
- 47. Microchip Digital Signal Processor Mobile phones became practical in the 1980s Technical Improvements
- 48. Cellular Networks Radio network made up of radio cells Tower and base Mobile Telephone Switching Office MTSO
- 49. Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones ▪ Mobile phones provide safety ▪ The most common device of all ▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s due to size of technology – Adjacent Possible ▪ The invention of the microchip played crucial role in the development of cell phones
- 51. 1G Analog
- 52. 1G Analog 1980s Voice only NMT, AMPS, FDMA
- 53. Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in the Nordic countries First international system was NMT in the Nordic Frequency Division Multiple Access - FDMA 1G Analog
- 54. NMT in Nordics AMPS in the US TACS in UK C-Nets in West Germany Radiocom 2000 in France RTMI/RTMS in Italy 1G Analog
- 55. Big Expensive Limited Characteristics Business users Field users Mobira Talkman frá Nokia 1G Analog Early users
- 57. Multiple standards – roaming is a problem In the US this is not a problem 1G Analog
- 58. European countries decide to define common standard – digital Work on a Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) starts 1982 1G Analog
- 59. 2G Digital
- 60. 1990s Voice and data 9.6 – 14.4 Kbps GSM, TDMA Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min. 2G Digital
- 61. Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s GMS takes off in 1991 – unites Europe Time Division Multiple Access – TDMA 2G Digital
- 62. US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming worked well Digital did not add enough over analog Texting and SIM cards was not known 2G Digital
- 63. GMS
- 64. Global System for Mobile Communication Built on TDMA – Digital Three times the capacity of analog, encryption, texting, SIM cards GMS
- 65. Texting Short Message System allowed 160 letters Became an accidental killer app – messages, chat, ring tones First message sent 03.12.1992: “Merry Christmas”
- 66. Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones ▪ Cars became the first platform for phones ▪ First phones are analog ▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its own – Problem with standards (history repeats itself?) ▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a standard ▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2 ▪ US does not have roaming problems and gets stuck in G1
- 67. 3G Packet Switch
- 68. Mobile networks and the Internet start to converge 1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice The Internet is packet-switched 3G Packet Switching
- 69. 2000s More data 128+ Kbps GPSR, EDGE, UMTS, CDMA Mobile networks and the Internet start to converge Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 11 sec. – 1,5 min. 3G Packet Switching
- 70. More bandwidth, more applications Email, Images, music, movies, streaming Based on Code Division Multiple Access – CDMA 3G Packet Switching
- 77. 3G Solutions Messages Browsing Apps (J2ME)
- 78. Built with limitations Screen size, bandwidth restrictions Input limited – one-handed keyboard Limited memory, battery life Fragmentation nightmare Mobile web was limited, bad version of the web 3G Solutions
- 79. Then, in 2007, the world changed
- 82. How does the competition respond? The Arrogance of the Present
- 84. iPhone hit the market in June 2007
- 86. Ok, let’s check the facts five years later
- 89. Touch screen
- 93. 100 billion apps downloaded (2015)
- 94. App market revenue is estimated to hit $77 billion by 2017
- 97. Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck Smartphone Market
- 98. iPhone
- 101. The end of the Unconnected Source: http://ben-evans.com/
- 102. 2-3x more smartphones than PCs by 2020 X Personal Taken everywhere Frictionless access Sensors, cameras Location Payments Social Easier to use = HUGE OPPERTUNITY
- 103. App vs. Web Development
- 104. The App Store is to the iPhone what iTunes is to the iPod Google Play is the same Availability
- 105. Specialized Apps with Quality of Service – Innovation Context
- 106. Mobile media users pick up their phone 40 times a day to consume content via apps/browser
- 115. Key Trends Mobile became important in 2010 and will be a revenue opportunity going forward
- 118. Any consumer business that ignores the smartphone, will likely become irrelevant Source: Heavy Reading Smartphones
- 119. Source: Skynews Smartphones How long does it take to download a HD movie 3G - 1 hour 4G - 40 seconds 5G - 1 second
- 120. Solutions Voice, text Apps, music, videos,
- 121. Worldwide tablet sales grew by more than 400% over a two- year period, reaching 81.3 million units in 2012. Tablets
- 123. The “mobile web” is just the web – there is only one web. It’s just displayed in multiple of screen sizes Source: The Next Big Thing: Mobile, http://www.olafurandri.com/?p=408
- 125. Next: The Internet of Things