In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community. In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

1. LECTURE L08
BECOMING INVISIBLE

2. Steve Jobs
Apple Special Event 27. January 2010

4. iPad
The iPad was released April 3rd
From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad
And there were more sceptics than not

6. And how was the response, again?

8. 300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability
By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads
iPad

10. Source: Morgan Stanley Research
https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

11. iPad sales 2010-2016

12. Inflection Point

13. Inflection points
When technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline of growth starts

16. Inflection points
When technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline of growth starts

17. Expectations of technology does not look like an S-curve

18. The Gartner Hype Curve

19. Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on
the Hype Curve and Forecasting

21. Peak of inflated
Expectations
Technology
Trigger Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
The Hype Cycle
A graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business
application of specific technologies

22. Technology Trigger
R&D
Laboratory
prototypes
Startup
companies - first
round of capital

23. Media hype
begins
No working
prototype
On the Rise

24. This time it’s
different
Best invention
since sliced
bread
On the Top

25. What do you mean it
can’t do that?
Overrated!
Does not live up to expectations

26. Nobody want’s this
Is this Over or is there Hope

27. This actually works
doing what is was
supposed all along
An undetected Rise

28. The what?
Plateau - invisible - disappear

29. Hype Cycle 2000

30. WAP
Wireless Application Protocol — A standard for using the
Internet on mobile phones
Introduced in 1999 and became
very hyped very fast

32. WAP
Wireless Application Protocol — A standard for using the
Internet on mobile phones
Introduced in 1999 and became
very hyped very fast
Proved to be very difficult to
implement successfully and was
very slow
Was a separate Internet Stack and
doomed to fail — you can’t replace the Internet

33. XML
XML is markup standard for data (Extensible Markup Language)
Introduced in 1996, the dawn of the Internet
and became very hyped as the
“data language of the Internet”

34. XML
XML is markup standard for data (Extensible Markup Language)
Introduced in 1996, the dawn of the Internet
and became very hyped as the
“data language of the Internet”
Proved to be very difficult to implement
successfully and was very slow
As parsers became better, bandwidth increased
and computer became faster, it started to gain popularity
Microsoft was very successful in deploying XML

35. Hype Cycle 2000

37. Does this look like a bubble?

38. The Internet Bubble NASDAQ
January 2000

39. And then the Bubble Burst

40. Looks Familiar?

41. The Internet Bubble

42. Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
Growth into the Bubble

43. Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
Growth since the Bubble

44. History Repeats — The Railway Bubble
Railway Stock in Britain
The value of railway stock grew 4 fold from 1826 to 1846
Many companies, heavy over-investment
The bubble burst 1846

45. Inflection Points

46. Shift in Computing
Where is the C-drive?
Computer anyone can use
The computer just
disappeared
Computer you use
standing or sitting at the
toilet

48. Tablets
Tablets are not new
Microsoft released a tablet in 2002
It was not successful - but why?

49. It was too much like desktop
computer but with
no keyboard and mouse - users
felt like it was a crippled system
Technology cramming - it was just
a bad computer, not a tablet
The Law of Prevailing Technology

50. Shifting focus

51. Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The
Law of Diffusion of Innovation
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER

52. OBVIOUS
INVISIBLE
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The
Law of Diffusion of Innovation

53. ANALYTICAL THINKING
EMOTIONS AND
FEELINGS
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The
Law of Diffusion of Innovation

54. The need-satisfaction curve of technology
Technology Life Cycle
The move from Technology to Commodity

55. Technology Life Cycle
Value becomes more important
Design becomes more important
Technology is no longer the variable that controls purchases
Improvements loose their glamour
Customers are looking for things like value convenience,
productivity, ease-of-use, low-cost, reliability
Emotions start to matter
Early in the cycle, technology is important
When technology becomes good enough, other things matter more

58. The Market of Commodities
What happens when a market becomes mature?
Karaoke Capitalism takes over
Red oceans — All the industries in existence today
Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the
competitive rules of the game are known

59. Strategy for creating new markets
Make the competition irrelevant
Blue oceans denote all the industries
not in existence today—the unknown
market space, untainted by competition
Creating Blue Oceans

60. Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making
the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers
and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market
space
Value Innovation

61. Industrial Design

62. As technology matures,
design becomes important
Industrial Design

63. User Centred Design
Don Norman

66. Technology Adoption Life Cycle
The talent of the company that made the product in the
early days may become wrong when the product matures
The organisational structure of companies need to change
when the company moves from technology to products/
services

67. Organisations which design
systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are
copies of the communication
structures of these
organisations
Conway’s Law

68. To whom does the designer report to?
A programmer?

69. Ive started at Apple in 1983 and was there when Steve Jobs
came back in 1997
Jonathan Ive

70. TECHNOLOGY
BUSINESS
DESIGN

71. Next
When technology blows you business away
L09 Disruptive Technology