Knowledge-Based Wargaming for Strategic Decision-Making

All Rights Reserved, 2014
One of the best reasons to be in Dubai instead of Ottawa…
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Photo: Roger Nilsson
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Knowledge-based decision making
Relevant Knowledge
Weighing knowledge-based options
Knowledge-based risk reduction
Turning historic knowledge &
hindsight into knowledge based
foresight
Turning individual knowledge into
collective knowledge
GAMING
Gamification
Wargaming
Red Teaming
Game Theory
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Strategic
Competitive
Targeting?
Strategic Competitive Intelligence? Strategic
Mission
Analysis?
Strategic Plan Development &
Campaign Design?
Contingencies, Branch
Plans & Sequels?
Strategic
Centres of
Gravity?
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So, what’s the
equivalent of blood,
sweat and tears on
your battlefield?
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Wargames are real-time, action-
reaction, role-playing workshops
that pit your key real-life
knowledge & decision makers
(Blue Team) …
….against the real-time knowledge
and actions of competitive
adversaries (Red Team)….
…and disciplined by an
executive level White team.
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Wargaming is a disciplined role
playing activity where key actors react
to critical events using an action /
reaction / counteraction method of
friendly and competitor interaction.
Each step in the execution of the
plan or strategy is examined in the
following detail:
• Action
• Reaction
• Counteraction
• Observations
• Record
• Review
• Learning
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Wargaming is a methodological discipline to test your knowledge and
plans that is also designed to promote:
• knowledge-based decision making
• risk mitigation,
• innovation,
• mechanisms of discovery for
leadership,
• mechanisms of voice for your teams
• real-time organizational learning for
all.
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Wargaming is a conscious attempt to
lever extant knowledge to visualize the
flow of business operations, given joint
strengths, weaknesses, dispositions,
capabilities and possible courses of
actions available to business actors in a
given business sector and environment.
……and it’s the best way of
getting into your competitor’s
head, their knowledge base, their
decision cycle, their OODA loop.
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Your corporate leadership, knowledge base, strategy, plan and business
environment are the foundations to preparing, designing and executing your
Wargame.
Vision
Mission
Analysis
Constraints
Restraints
Assumptions
If there’s a problem with any
of these, the wargame will
show it.
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Every event is tested against a knowledge-based competitive reality.
Action
Reaction
Counteraction
Observations
Record
Review
Learning
Action
Reaction
Counteraction
Observations
Record
Review
Learning
Action
Reaction
Counteraction
Observations
Record
Review
Learning
Action
Reaction
Counteraction
Observations
Record
Review
Learning
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After Action Reviews (AARs) are a LEADERSHIP responsibility and are
conducted by your corporate leadership, facilitated by the White Team
Lead and supported by the Blue and Red Leads.
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• Wargame Knowledge Base &
Preparations are a LEADERSHIP
responsibility!
• Wargaming of the knowledge base is
a LEADERSHIP responsibility!
• Learning from the wargame is a
LEADERSHIP responsibility!
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• Scale?
• Scope?
• Focus?
• Method?
Wargaming is a HUMAN activity – the SIMULATION must provide STIMULATION
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• These are a series of two of more
sequential and comparable wargames
involving the same knowledge base,
conditions, actors and weighting criteria
to determine the most viable options
available in terms of risk, execution, pay
off, etc.
• This is a decision support tool for
senior executives to recommend a
distinct plan of action to corporate
leadership.
• Red & Blue players are normally drawn from the extant pool of
executives normally involved in your company’s strategic and
operational planning process.
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Photo: Roger Nilsson
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• A Rehearsal Wargame is a
comprehensive exercise to test the
requirements of knowledge-based
decision making of accepted plan
prior to its execution.
• The BLUE TEAM involves all
senior executives who must make
decisions and manage activities in
the execution of that plan and
confined to their accepted decision
support roles.
• Reducing risk by turning hindsight into foresight … turning
individual knowledge into collective knowledge.
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• A Red Team Exercise is similar to a
rehearsal Wargame with the exception
that none of the Red Team players are
drawn from company’s decision support
stakeholders.
• Each RED TEAM player is an outside
subject matter expert that is not a
company stakeholder and is only given a
reasonable amount of information that a
normal competitor would have.
• The RED TEAM’s role is not merely to test the plan and knowledge
base as adversarial players but rather to put it under extreme
competitive stress.
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Companies that wargame
experience 40% to 55%
increase in successful execution

Dancers rehearse
Actors rehearse
Militaries rehearse
Shouldn’t You?
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Knowledge-Based Wargaming for Strategic Decision-Making

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