SlideShare a Scribd company logo
CABOT’S 21ST ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE & LUNCHEON Friday, September 24, 2010
Stocks Today…Safer Than You Think? Presented by: Robert T. Lutts, President & Chief Investment Officer
A CHANGING WORLD “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor is it the most intelligent, it is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”   – Charles Darwin
OUTLINE ,[object Object]
How Risky is the Stock Market Today? Adjusting to a new environment.
Why Should One Take Risk Today?
Alternatives to equities are fading (cash, bonds, real estate)
Long-term conditions excellent (Cycle favors stocks today)
What Sectors of the Economy Offer the Best Opportunities?
What Countries of the World Do We Favor Today – Why?
Optimum Strategy for 2011/2012,[object Object]
Deleveraging cycle – sectors to avoid
Top line growth will be challenging – manage profits
Consumers consuming at lower levels – will persist
Employment growth elusive – may recover slowly
Global growth concerns and deflation concerns,[object Object]
Earnings – have been growing nicely. The next phase will be more difficult.
Valuations – SP 500 Trades at 11.5 X 2011 earnings
InvestorPsychology – Investors have given up on equities today. This means opportunity.
New World Growth Engines – China, India, and Brazil,[object Object]
Total U.S. debt, including domestic debt and foreign debt (which includes financial debt, household debt and government debt). Now three times to GDP what it was in 1952. Source: www.creditwritedowns.com
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Long-term Perspective
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Short-term Perspective 3-Year Chart of 10-Year Treasury Yields
THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #1: Low 10-year Returns = High Expected Returns DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 10-YEAR ROLLING RETURNS Cycle Now Favors Stocks
THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #2: Dividend Yields > 10-Year Treasury Yield! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND
THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #3: Fund Flows Excellent Contra-Indicator! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND 1/1/09 – 8/31/10  Bonds Net In +$452 Billion 1/1/09 – 8/31/10  Equities Net out -$42 Billion
EARNINGS YIELD VS. 10-YEAR YIELD 6% Spread  Very Unusual Divergence! To Narrow Spread:  Stocks Prices May Increase and Bonds Yields Rise
WHERE WE ARE TODAY
POSITIVE CONSIDERATIONS ,[object Object]

More Related Content

What's hot

Zielenziger: Finance and Economic Security
Zielenziger: Finance and Economic SecurityZielenziger: Finance and Economic Security
Zielenziger: Finance and Economic Security
Analisa Svehaug
 
Exam 1 review
Exam 1 reviewExam 1 review
Exam 1 review
Gale Pooley
 
Feeding the Dragon - GMO
Feeding the Dragon - GMO Feeding the Dragon - GMO
Feeding the Dragon - GMO
ZEV Capital Research, LLC
 
Trends 2011
Trends 2011Trends 2011
Trends 2011
Coy Davidson
 
Welcome To Capital Market, Over Focus Is
Welcome To Capital Market, Over Focus IsWelcome To Capital Market, Over Focus Is
Welcome To Capital Market, Over Focus Is
laxmikant thanvi
 
influence america
influence americainfluence america
influence america
ase.representaoddes
 
Microsoft Presentation
Microsoft PresentationMicrosoft Presentation
Microsoft Presentation
Bilgi MBA 2.0
 
Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...
Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...
Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...
Excelsior Management Solutions, LLC
 
Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)
Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)
Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)
Grant Thornton International Ltd
 
Investment-Potential-in-EMENA
Investment-Potential-in-EMENAInvestment-Potential-in-EMENA
Investment-Potential-in-EMENA
Rebecca Porter (she/her)
 

What's hot (10)

Zielenziger: Finance and Economic Security
Zielenziger: Finance and Economic SecurityZielenziger: Finance and Economic Security
Zielenziger: Finance and Economic Security
 
Exam 1 review
Exam 1 reviewExam 1 review
Exam 1 review
 
Feeding the Dragon - GMO
Feeding the Dragon - GMO Feeding the Dragon - GMO
Feeding the Dragon - GMO
 
Trends 2011
Trends 2011Trends 2011
Trends 2011
 
Welcome To Capital Market, Over Focus Is
Welcome To Capital Market, Over Focus IsWelcome To Capital Market, Over Focus Is
Welcome To Capital Market, Over Focus Is
 
influence america
influence americainfluence america
influence america
 
Microsoft Presentation
Microsoft PresentationMicrosoft Presentation
Microsoft Presentation
 
Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...
Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...
Published by Excelsior Manag. Solutions, LLC Real estate & infrastructure boo...
 
Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)
Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)
Sustainability: changing the debate in emerging markets (IBR 2014)
 
Investment-Potential-in-EMENA
Investment-Potential-in-EMENAInvestment-Potential-in-EMENA
Investment-Potential-in-EMENA
 

Similar to Stocks Today: Safer Than You Think?

The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?
The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?
The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?
Cabot Wealth Management, Inc.
 
Perfect.Storm
Perfect.StormPerfect.Storm
Perfect.Storm
Ian Po
 
SFG Newsletter - June
SFG Newsletter - JuneSFG Newsletter - June
SFG Newsletter - June
Mike Seed
 
Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011
Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011
Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011
TiE Bangalore
 
Business in a global environment
Business in a global environmentBusiness in a global environment
Business in a global environment
AyeCho26
 
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based InvestingIntroduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
Gene Balas, CFA
 
Iceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central Bank
Iceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central BankIceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central Bank
Iceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central Bank
Asad Zaman
 
Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010
moneyweb
 
Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010
moneyweb
 
Investment Cycles
Investment CyclesInvestment Cycles
Investment Cycles
seanglorioso
 
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'emSeptember 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
Mark_Krygier
 
Case for International
Case for InternationalCase for International
Case for International
John Heilner
 
The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016
Jim Tyson
 
META SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East & Indian Co
META SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East  & Indian CoMETA SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East  & Indian Co
META SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East & Indian Co
Ajay Gohil
 
Investor Presentation
Investor PresentationInvestor Presentation
Investor Presentation
SproutChange Inc.
 
The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016
Jim Tyson
 
Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09
Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09
Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09
dpalcic
 
Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami Business Forum 15 01 2009
Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami  Business Forum  15 01 2009Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami  Business Forum  15 01 2009
Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami Business Forum 15 01 2009
neiracar
 
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der Stok
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der StokThe Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der Stok
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der Stok
Felix Meißner
 
Need and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing country
Need and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing countryNeed and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing country
Need and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing country
priya bansal
 

Similar to Stocks Today: Safer Than You Think? (20)

The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?
The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?
The Bull Market Turned 5... Is the Party Over?
 
Perfect.Storm
Perfect.StormPerfect.Storm
Perfect.Storm
 
SFG Newsletter - June
SFG Newsletter - JuneSFG Newsletter - June
SFG Newsletter - June
 
Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011
Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011
Rivkin india ppt edited december 7 2011
 
Business in a global environment
Business in a global environmentBusiness in a global environment
Business in a global environment
 
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based InvestingIntroduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
 
Iceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central Bank
Iceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central BankIceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central Bank
Iceland Plan for Monetary Reform -- presentation at Turkish Central Bank
 
Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010
 
Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010Investing in 2010
Investing in 2010
 
Investment Cycles
Investment CyclesInvestment Cycles
Investment Cycles
 
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'emSeptember 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em
 
Case for International
Case for InternationalCase for International
Case for International
 
The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016The Advisory_Sept2016
The Advisory_Sept2016
 
META SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East & Indian Co
META SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East  & Indian CoMETA SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East  & Indian Co
META SYSTEM - Opportunities for Middle East & Indian Co
 
Investor Presentation
Investor PresentationInvestor Presentation
Investor Presentation
 
The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016
 
Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09
Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09
Michael O'Sullivan 22-04-09
 
Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami Business Forum 15 01 2009
Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami  Business Forum  15 01 2009Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami  Business Forum  15 01 2009
Ricardo V Lago Universityof Miami Business Forum 15 01 2009
 
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der Stok
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der StokThe Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der Stok
The Financial Situation in the World by Wouter van der Stok
 
Need and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing country
Need and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing countryNeed and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing country
Need and channel of investment in underdeveloped countries or developing country
 

More from Cabot Wealth Management

Safe Income in a Dangerous Bond Market
Safe Income in a Dangerous Bond MarketSafe Income in a Dangerous Bond Market
Safe Income in a Dangerous Bond Market
Cabot Wealth Management
 
Curing Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final Frontier
Curing Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final FrontierCuring Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final Frontier
Curing Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final Frontier
Cabot Wealth Management
 
Cabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to Retirement
Cabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to RetirementCabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to Retirement
Cabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to Retirement
Cabot Wealth Management
 
Cabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in Review
Cabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in ReviewCabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in Review
Cabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in Review
Cabot Wealth Management
 
Successful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate Environment
Successful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate EnvironmentSuccessful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate Environment
Successful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate Environment
Cabot Wealth Management
 
Global Opportunities: Positioning for Success
Global Opportunities: Positioning for SuccessGlobal Opportunities: Positioning for Success
Global Opportunities: Positioning for Success
Cabot Wealth Management
 
Cabot's 2010 Year In Review
Cabot's 2010 Year In ReviewCabot's 2010 Year In Review
Cabot's 2010 Year In Review
Cabot Wealth Management
 

More from Cabot Wealth Management (7)

Safe Income in a Dangerous Bond Market
Safe Income in a Dangerous Bond MarketSafe Income in a Dangerous Bond Market
Safe Income in a Dangerous Bond Market
 
Curing Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final Frontier
Curing Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final FrontierCuring Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final Frontier
Curing Cancer. In the Clouds. The Final Frontier
 
Cabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to Retirement
Cabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to RetirementCabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to Retirement
Cabot Wealth Management's Roadmap to Retirement
 
Cabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in Review
Cabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in ReviewCabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in Review
Cabot Wealth Management 2014 Year in Review
 
Successful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate Environment
Successful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate EnvironmentSuccessful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate Environment
Successful Bond Investing in a Low-Interest Rate Environment
 
Global Opportunities: Positioning for Success
Global Opportunities: Positioning for SuccessGlobal Opportunities: Positioning for Success
Global Opportunities: Positioning for Success
 
Cabot's 2010 Year In Review
Cabot's 2010 Year In ReviewCabot's 2010 Year In Review
Cabot's 2010 Year In Review
 

Recently uploaded

一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理
otogas
 
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
 
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
AntoniaOwensDetwiler
 
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
Falcon Invoice Discounting
 
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership Networks
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksSeminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership Networks
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership Networks
GRAPE
 
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFiTdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
nimaruinazawa258
 
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptxOAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
hiddenlevers
 
SWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation Prof Oyedokun.pptx
SWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation   Prof Oyedokun.pptxSWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation   Prof Oyedokun.pptx
SWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation Prof Oyedokun.pptx
Godwin Emmanuel Oyedokun MBA MSc PhD FCA FCTI FCNA CFE FFAR
 
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
rlo9fxi
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards
Instant Issue Debit CardsInstant Issue Debit Cards
Instant Issue Debit Cards
egoetzinger
 
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
Neal Brewster
 
An Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault works
An Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault worksAn Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault works
An Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault works
Colin R. Turner
 
1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine
1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine
1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine
Lawrence101
 
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdf
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfBONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdf
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdf
coingabbar
 
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investingEarn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
Colin R. Turner
 
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdfWho Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Price Vision
 
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports
EasyReports
 
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trendsUsing Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
 
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightnessWhat's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
 
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla FincorpWho Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
beulahfernandes8
 

Recently uploaded (20)

一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(UCL毕业证)伦敦大学|学院毕业证如何办理
 
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
 
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
 
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
 
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership Networks
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksSeminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership Networks
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership Networks
 
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFiTdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
 
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptxOAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
OAT_RI_Ep20 WeighingTheRisks_May24_Trade Wars.pptx
 
SWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation Prof Oyedokun.pptx
SWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation   Prof Oyedokun.pptxSWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation   Prof Oyedokun.pptx
SWAIAP Fraud Risk Mitigation Prof Oyedokun.pptx
 
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards
Instant Issue Debit CardsInstant Issue Debit Cards
Instant Issue Debit Cards
 
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
 
An Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault works
An Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault worksAn Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault works
An Overview of the Prosocial dHEDGE Vault works
 
1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine
1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine
1.2 Business Ideas Business Ideas Busine
 
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdf
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfBONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdf
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdf
 
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investingEarn a passive income with prosocial investing
Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
 
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdfWho Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
 
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial Reports
 
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trendsUsing Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
 
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightnessWhat's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
 
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla FincorpWho Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
 

Stocks Today: Safer Than You Think?

  • 1. CABOT’S 21ST ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE & LUNCHEON Friday, September 24, 2010
  • 2. Stocks Today…Safer Than You Think? Presented by: Robert T. Lutts, President & Chief Investment Officer
  • 3. A CHANGING WORLD “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor is it the most intelligent, it is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” – Charles Darwin
  • 4.
  • 5. How Risky is the Stock Market Today? Adjusting to a new environment.
  • 6. Why Should One Take Risk Today?
  • 7. Alternatives to equities are fading (cash, bonds, real estate)
  • 8. Long-term conditions excellent (Cycle favors stocks today)
  • 9. What Sectors of the Economy Offer the Best Opportunities?
  • 10. What Countries of the World Do We Favor Today – Why?
  • 11.
  • 12. Deleveraging cycle – sectors to avoid
  • 13. Top line growth will be challenging – manage profits
  • 14. Consumers consuming at lower levels – will persist
  • 15. Employment growth elusive – may recover slowly
  • 16.
  • 17. Earnings – have been growing nicely. The next phase will be more difficult.
  • 18. Valuations – SP 500 Trades at 11.5 X 2011 earnings
  • 19. InvestorPsychology – Investors have given up on equities today. This means opportunity.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Total U.S. debt, including domestic debt and foreign debt (which includes financial debt, household debt and government debt). Now three times to GDP what it was in 1952. Source: www.creditwritedowns.com
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Long-term Perspective
  • 27. WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Short-term Perspective 3-Year Chart of 10-Year Treasury Yields
  • 28. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #1: Low 10-year Returns = High Expected Returns DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 10-YEAR ROLLING RETURNS Cycle Now Favors Stocks
  • 29. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #2: Dividend Yields > 10-Year Treasury Yield! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND
  • 30. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #3: Fund Flows Excellent Contra-Indicator! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND 1/1/09 – 8/31/10 Bonds Net In +$452 Billion 1/1/09 – 8/31/10 Equities Net out -$42 Billion
  • 31. EARNINGS YIELD VS. 10-YEAR YIELD 6% Spread Very Unusual Divergence! To Narrow Spread: Stocks Prices May Increase and Bonds Yields Rise
  • 32. WHERE WE ARE TODAY
  • 33.
  • 34. TIME is Important After Crisis – We are healing and adapting now. Risk taking is slowly coming back into the markets.
  • 35. Economic Data – Glass is more than half full today.
  • 36.
  • 37. One needs to think positively when all others are fearful.
  • 38. Markets today are looking forward 12-18 months.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. WILL THE BULL RETURN? IF SO, WHEN?
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. CLIENT SERVICESomething Cabot Works Hard to Provide
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56. WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES? Internet Networks are changing everything. Internet arrived about 25 years ago. Email gained popularity in the late 1980s. An internet that links 100 million people is not worth 10 times one that links 10 million people. In fact, due to massive connective power, a network that links 100 million people is really worth much more than ten times the one that links 10 million. Most of the productivity benefits in the internet are in the future. We are anticipating many great investment opportunities in this space.
  • 57.
  • 59. Software – Smart Phones, E-Readers, Migration to Digital
  • 60. Search – Application Market, Medical Applications
  • 62. Unique Use of Internet WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES?
  • 63. WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES? Energy Energy complex is the single largest sector of our economic world and has changed only moderately in the past 50 years. Cars are essentially the same technology – better, but the same engine. Electricity is also generated pretty much the same as it was 50 years ago. We anticipate some very large opportunities to invest in wealth-creating ideas in the coming decade. Solar, Wind, Advanced Materials, Battery Technology, Clean Energy, Climate Change are just a few of the incredible new developments we expect.Large fortunes will be created for those who think big and invest in the winners!
  • 64.
  • 69.
  • 71. Banks
  • 73. Auto
  • 75.
  • 80. We anticipate outperformance in China for many years.
  • 81.
  • 82. Gold Bull Market – Key Drivers Investment Demand– Investors continue to Allocate new funds to gold. Protection against currency manipulation. Supply Is Constrained– Industry cannot increase production easily – easy places to find gold are already mined. Zero growth in production over last 6-8 years. Central Bankers No Longer a Seller of Gold– Over 2000 Years of History – Gold, Land, & Diamonds have held their purchasing power – many other classes including currency have seen their value distroyed.
  • 83. ALLOCATION TO ALTERNATIVE ASSETS Currency Protection– Gold and Gold mining Shares International Bonds– High-quality sovereign bonds yield plus appreciation assuming country finances are stronger than USA. Fixed-Income Hybrids– High Yield, Preferred, Convertibles Non-US Currency Securities– Yield plus protection from weaker dollar Commodities– Energy, grains and other indexes
  • 84. TO SUCCEED TODAY ONE NEEDS Flexible Thinking. Do not be afraid of change, embrace it! Use Risk Management Techniques Size of positions Loss discipline Diversification strategy Conviction to Invest in the new winners in a world economy changing at breakneck speed – “Sonic Boom” “It will go well, but it will not be relaxing!” Greg Esterbrook
  • 85.
  • 86. Government solutions and new economic thinking will work in time. We will adapt and manage.
  • 87. The Cost: More debt, eventually more inflation, and a weaker dollar relative to stronger economies.
  • 89.