The document summarizes the major themes from the Davos 2010 conference. The five major themes discussed are:
1) Bank bashing, with Sarkozy leading criticism of banks. Banking stocks appear high risk.
2) Rise of China, which is redefining rules for commoditized businesses. China's influence and growth is a major trend.
3) Mounting problems in Europe, with issues around debt, corruption, and competitiveness coming to the forefront.
4) Climate change, where political will is growing due to public concern, and major investment is expected in renewable energy alternatives.
5) African economic growth, with the continent attracting serious investment and forecast as the third
Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
Global Research
1) Global rebalancing will weigh on risk assets like equities over the coming years as current account imbalances continue to narrow.
2) European and Asian equities excluding Japan are preferred to US equities for 2016.
3) Overweight defensive equity sectors, underweight government bonds, and prefer investment grade over high yield credit.
http://pwc.to/11CB1Xq
Dans son étude « Working Capital Survey 2013 », PwC montre que la performance BFR (Besoin en Fonds de Roulement, soit la trésorerie mobilisée par l’activité) des entreprises mondiales s'est dégradée de 2 % par rapport à l'année dernière. Seule exception, les sociétés européennes ont amélioré leur situation, démontrant une corrélation entre PIB et niveaux de BFR.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
Moneyweb Investment Focus, with Discovery Invest (November 2009)moneyweb
The new normal - Alec Hogg, Moneyweb / Panning for gold in muddy waters - Kerrin Howard, Discovery Invest / Lessons learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers - David Shapiro, Sasfin
Business 502 Term Project - Investment BrochureKawin Koh
The document is an investor newsletter that discusses investment opportunities in international economies. It summarizes the following:
1) It divides countries into three categories for investment purposes: high-income countries, middle-income countries, and low-income countries. Each category has different growth and risk profiles that may not be suitable for all investors.
2) It analyzes the historical GDP growth and risk ratings of countries in each category over the past 30 years. GDP has grown consistently across all categories, while risk ratings have remained stable or improved.
3) It compares the recent performance and characteristics of each country category, such as average annual returns, GDP composition, population growth, and standard of living. High-income countries
Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
Global Research
1) Global rebalancing will weigh on risk assets like equities over the coming years as current account imbalances continue to narrow.
2) European and Asian equities excluding Japan are preferred to US equities for 2016.
3) Overweight defensive equity sectors, underweight government bonds, and prefer investment grade over high yield credit.
http://pwc.to/11CB1Xq
Dans son étude « Working Capital Survey 2013 », PwC montre que la performance BFR (Besoin en Fonds de Roulement, soit la trésorerie mobilisée par l’activité) des entreprises mondiales s'est dégradée de 2 % par rapport à l'année dernière. Seule exception, les sociétés européennes ont amélioré leur situation, démontrant une corrélation entre PIB et niveaux de BFR.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
Moneyweb Investment Focus, with Discovery Invest (November 2009)moneyweb
The new normal - Alec Hogg, Moneyweb / Panning for gold in muddy waters - Kerrin Howard, Discovery Invest / Lessons learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers - David Shapiro, Sasfin
Business 502 Term Project - Investment BrochureKawin Koh
The document is an investor newsletter that discusses investment opportunities in international economies. It summarizes the following:
1) It divides countries into three categories for investment purposes: high-income countries, middle-income countries, and low-income countries. Each category has different growth and risk profiles that may not be suitable for all investors.
2) It analyzes the historical GDP growth and risk ratings of countries in each category over the past 30 years. GDP has grown consistently across all categories, while risk ratings have remained stable or improved.
3) It compares the recent performance and characteristics of each country category, such as average annual returns, GDP composition, population growth, and standard of living. High-income countries
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
For many, the investment world can be a confusing place. Banks, mutual finds, stocks, bonds, currencies, insurance, inflation, taxes, economies - it's no wonder the majority have glossed eyes.
And sitting on top of this confusion pie are central banks.
Each country has its own central bank which is responsible for setting overnight interest rates and the amount of money in that country's financial system.
Yet, there is one central bank that is the most important, sits on top of the world, and all of its actions impact not only their local country, but also every other country in the world.
This central bank is the US Federal Reserve.
In this latest IceCap Global Outlook we share how actions by the US Federal Reserve are always reactive to a crisis which, ironically, it helped create in the first place.
Today's central banks are once again, trying to thread the financial needle, and rescue us from the crisis that was born from the depths of the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis.
The crisis is happening, yet there is good news - the crisis is creating opportunities to not only preserve your hard earned savings, but to capitalize too.
This section examines the relationship between the Japanese yen and the US dollar over a 12-month period. It finds that the yen appreciated against the dollar, reaching a 14-year high in November 2009, but declined at various points when the Japanese government intervened verbally or through monetary policy to devalue the yen. Key factors that influenced the currency fluctuations included differences in price inflation and interest rates between the two economies, as well as shifting market psychology. The yen's appreciation has economic implications for Japan, such as making exports less competitive and posing challenges for monetary policy effectiveness.
- Global gross financial assets grew 4.9% in 2015 to EUR 155 trillion, the weakest rate since 2011, as monetary policy becomes less effective.
- Securities performed best (+6.1%), while growth of insurance/pension funds lagged (+3.3%) due to low interest rates.
- Asia (excl. Japan) grew fastest (+15%), while growth slowed in other regions, especially developed countries like Western Europe (+3.2%) and North America (+2.6%).
- Household debt grew 4.5% globally, stable from 2014, though growth varied regionally with increases in Asia and declines in Latin America and Eastern Europe.
"GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND IT'S IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY"Somnath Pagar
In the subsequent parts of the research report, several issues will be discussed which will provide a detailed account of the origin of the crisis (2008-spiraled mortgage crisis, starting in the United States) and the ripple effect of economic downturn of the world„s largest economy which engulfed even the fast growing emerging economies into the crisis. The main aim of the study is to find relevant answers to questions like:
Why and how India has been hit by the crisis?
How the Indian economy and the Reserve Bank of India have responded to the crisis?
Which are the opportunities arisen from the crises?
etc.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
Global imbalances have declined since the financial crisis due to changes in demand and output in deficit and surplus countries. Real exchange rates do not fully explain changes in trade balances, as many other macroeconomic, financial, and structural factors are also at play. Assessing real exchange rates and current accounts requires analyzing exchange rate fundamentals in the context of external balances and net foreign asset positions over time. This is a complex task with different considerations for countries like China, the United States, and emerging markets experiencing large capital inflows. A multilateral approach is needed for sustainable global rebalancing.
The document discusses the need for a planned rollback of economic stimulus packages as economies show signs of recovery. It notes that while stimulus was needed to boost economies, prolonged reliance on stimulus can undermine sustainable growth and fiscal stability. A gradual, coordinated reduction in stimulus by governments and central banks is necessary to transition economies off artificial support. However, full recovery is not yet assured given remaining risks, so stimulus withdrawal needs careful management.
The document discusses Japan's economic bubble from 1986 to 1990, which led to a "Lost Decade" from 1990 to 2000. During the bubble, real estate and stock prices greatly inflated but then collapsed, with stock prices bottoming in 2003. During the Lost Decade, Japan's economic growth plunged, unemployment rose, and deflation occurred. The Lost Decade was caused by the bursting of the economic bubble and exacerbated by inadequate domestic policies. Japan struggled to stimulate domestic consumption and implement structural reforms to recover from this economic crisis.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
The document discusses Japan's economic crisis in the 1990s known as the "Lost Decade". It began with the bursting of an asset price bubble in the late 1980s that led to a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation. Real estate and stock prices declined dramatically. GDP growth slowed and wages stagnated as unemployment rose. The economy struggled for over a decade to recover from this crisis, which was characterized by over-lending, an asset price collapse, and deflation that the government and central bank had difficulty addressing.
The document provides a quarterly analysis of market conditions from a senior analyst. It finds that while technical indicators are moderately bullish, sentiment has shifted to pessimism after the market correction. Liquidity remains sufficient due to central bank intervention, but credit growth is modest and not very productive. The fundamentals are concerning as economic reports have disappointed and earnings warnings have increased, suggesting growth needs to pick up in the second half for a positive outlook.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
The document discusses highlights for 2012 including:
1) An upward bias for stocks in the range of 1,100 to 1,550 and low bias for interest rates in the first half of 2012, though headwinds and uncertainty may arise quickly.
2) 2012 will be a significant time of historical transformations as pressures build from unresolved issues like high global debt and political unrest, similar to the 1970s-1980s.
3) TSWM will maintain a well-thought-out asset allocation plan and conservative balance to mitigate emotional decision-making as volatility increases, relying on sound portfolio principles.
The document discusses how sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have emerged as major players in global financial markets due to a shift in the global economic landscape driven by globalization. SWFs now influence the global financial system as their investments have reversed traditional capital flows. Their long term investment horizons and risk tolerances differentiate them from other institutional investors. The rise of SWFs reflects a secular shift in global wealth from developed to developing economies and those with natural resources.
Présentation d'affaires Emgoldex, par Goldexteam dans français.Como participer à l'entreprise de Emgoldex basé sur la vente d'or 24K groupe d'investissement.
1. The investor life cycle describes the different phases investors go through over their lifetime from early career to retirement.
2. In the early career phase, investors have a small net worth and are willing to take on higher risks in anticipation of higher returns.
3. As investors move through their mid-career, they accumulate assets and take on less risk by prioritizing capital preservation.
4. In retirement, investments become the primary source of income and capital preservation is the overriding concern with lower risk investments.
Nokia was once the dominant player in the mobile phone market but has since experienced a decline. It went through typical phases of a product life cycle, including growth as it launched popular models but then maturity as competitors emerged. Nokia's market share declined significantly as it failed to keep up with the shift to smartphones dominated by Android and iOS. This led Nokia to partner exclusively with Microsoft for its Windows platform, but Windows phones failed to gain traction. As a result, in 2013 Microsoft acquired Nokia's mobile phone business altogether, marking the fall of what was once the top mobile brand.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
For many, the investment world can be a confusing place. Banks, mutual finds, stocks, bonds, currencies, insurance, inflation, taxes, economies - it's no wonder the majority have glossed eyes.
And sitting on top of this confusion pie are central banks.
Each country has its own central bank which is responsible for setting overnight interest rates and the amount of money in that country's financial system.
Yet, there is one central bank that is the most important, sits on top of the world, and all of its actions impact not only their local country, but also every other country in the world.
This central bank is the US Federal Reserve.
In this latest IceCap Global Outlook we share how actions by the US Federal Reserve are always reactive to a crisis which, ironically, it helped create in the first place.
Today's central banks are once again, trying to thread the financial needle, and rescue us from the crisis that was born from the depths of the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis.
The crisis is happening, yet there is good news - the crisis is creating opportunities to not only preserve your hard earned savings, but to capitalize too.
This section examines the relationship between the Japanese yen and the US dollar over a 12-month period. It finds that the yen appreciated against the dollar, reaching a 14-year high in November 2009, but declined at various points when the Japanese government intervened verbally or through monetary policy to devalue the yen. Key factors that influenced the currency fluctuations included differences in price inflation and interest rates between the two economies, as well as shifting market psychology. The yen's appreciation has economic implications for Japan, such as making exports less competitive and posing challenges for monetary policy effectiveness.
- Global gross financial assets grew 4.9% in 2015 to EUR 155 trillion, the weakest rate since 2011, as monetary policy becomes less effective.
- Securities performed best (+6.1%), while growth of insurance/pension funds lagged (+3.3%) due to low interest rates.
- Asia (excl. Japan) grew fastest (+15%), while growth slowed in other regions, especially developed countries like Western Europe (+3.2%) and North America (+2.6%).
- Household debt grew 4.5% globally, stable from 2014, though growth varied regionally with increases in Asia and declines in Latin America and Eastern Europe.
"GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND IT'S IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY"Somnath Pagar
In the subsequent parts of the research report, several issues will be discussed which will provide a detailed account of the origin of the crisis (2008-spiraled mortgage crisis, starting in the United States) and the ripple effect of economic downturn of the world„s largest economy which engulfed even the fast growing emerging economies into the crisis. The main aim of the study is to find relevant answers to questions like:
Why and how India has been hit by the crisis?
How the Indian economy and the Reserve Bank of India have responded to the crisis?
Which are the opportunities arisen from the crises?
etc.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
Global imbalances have declined since the financial crisis due to changes in demand and output in deficit and surplus countries. Real exchange rates do not fully explain changes in trade balances, as many other macroeconomic, financial, and structural factors are also at play. Assessing real exchange rates and current accounts requires analyzing exchange rate fundamentals in the context of external balances and net foreign asset positions over time. This is a complex task with different considerations for countries like China, the United States, and emerging markets experiencing large capital inflows. A multilateral approach is needed for sustainable global rebalancing.
The document discusses the need for a planned rollback of economic stimulus packages as economies show signs of recovery. It notes that while stimulus was needed to boost economies, prolonged reliance on stimulus can undermine sustainable growth and fiscal stability. A gradual, coordinated reduction in stimulus by governments and central banks is necessary to transition economies off artificial support. However, full recovery is not yet assured given remaining risks, so stimulus withdrawal needs careful management.
The document discusses Japan's economic bubble from 1986 to 1990, which led to a "Lost Decade" from 1990 to 2000. During the bubble, real estate and stock prices greatly inflated but then collapsed, with stock prices bottoming in 2003. During the Lost Decade, Japan's economic growth plunged, unemployment rose, and deflation occurred. The Lost Decade was caused by the bursting of the economic bubble and exacerbated by inadequate domestic policies. Japan struggled to stimulate domestic consumption and implement structural reforms to recover from this economic crisis.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
October 2017 Investment Insights:
The best time to prepare for a market decline is before one happens. In our opinion, the four most important necessary elements to survive a bear market are diversification, quality, a long-term perspective, and professional management.
www.mycwmusa.com
The document discusses Japan's economic crisis in the 1990s known as the "Lost Decade". It began with the bursting of an asset price bubble in the late 1980s that led to a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation. Real estate and stock prices declined dramatically. GDP growth slowed and wages stagnated as unemployment rose. The economy struggled for over a decade to recover from this crisis, which was characterized by over-lending, an asset price collapse, and deflation that the government and central bank had difficulty addressing.
The document provides a quarterly analysis of market conditions from a senior analyst. It finds that while technical indicators are moderately bullish, sentiment has shifted to pessimism after the market correction. Liquidity remains sufficient due to central bank intervention, but credit growth is modest and not very productive. The fundamentals are concerning as economic reports have disappointed and earnings warnings have increased, suggesting growth needs to pick up in the second half for a positive outlook.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
The document discusses highlights for 2012 including:
1) An upward bias for stocks in the range of 1,100 to 1,550 and low bias for interest rates in the first half of 2012, though headwinds and uncertainty may arise quickly.
2) 2012 will be a significant time of historical transformations as pressures build from unresolved issues like high global debt and political unrest, similar to the 1970s-1980s.
3) TSWM will maintain a well-thought-out asset allocation plan and conservative balance to mitigate emotional decision-making as volatility increases, relying on sound portfolio principles.
The document discusses how sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have emerged as major players in global financial markets due to a shift in the global economic landscape driven by globalization. SWFs now influence the global financial system as their investments have reversed traditional capital flows. Their long term investment horizons and risk tolerances differentiate them from other institutional investors. The rise of SWFs reflects a secular shift in global wealth from developed to developing economies and those with natural resources.
Présentation d'affaires Emgoldex, par Goldexteam dans français.Como participer à l'entreprise de Emgoldex basé sur la vente d'or 24K groupe d'investissement.
1. The investor life cycle describes the different phases investors go through over their lifetime from early career to retirement.
2. In the early career phase, investors have a small net worth and are willing to take on higher risks in anticipation of higher returns.
3. As investors move through their mid-career, they accumulate assets and take on less risk by prioritizing capital preservation.
4. In retirement, investments become the primary source of income and capital preservation is the overriding concern with lower risk investments.
Nokia was once the dominant player in the mobile phone market but has since experienced a decline. It went through typical phases of a product life cycle, including growth as it launched popular models but then maturity as competitors emerged. Nokia's market share declined significantly as it failed to keep up with the shift to smartphones dominated by Android and iOS. This led Nokia to partner exclusively with Microsoft for its Windows platform, but Windows phones failed to gain traction. As a result, in 2013 Microsoft acquired Nokia's mobile phone business altogether, marking the fall of what was once the top mobile brand.
The document discusses the product lifecycle (PLC) which consists of four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. During the introduction stage, products are initially promoted to raise public awareness using either a penetration or skimming pricing strategy. In the growth stage, heavy advertising is used to increase sales and market share. The maturity stage sees sales growth stabilize. Finally, the decline stage occurs when sales begin to fall as customers are satisfied or replaced by newer products. However, the document notes that not all products follow the same cycle and stages may be skipped. Close monitoring is needed throughout a product's lifecycle.
Product life cycle & marketing strategyHitesh Sunny
Product life cycles have distinct stages - introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. Each stage requires different marketing strategies to address changing demand and competition.
During introduction, demand is low and profits are negative as costs are high. Marketing focuses on creating awareness through promotions. In growth, demand and profits rise as acceptance increases and prices stabilize. Mature products have slowing growth, so marketing emphasizes price reductions and feature changes. In decline, sales fall as new products satisfy customer needs, so marketing focuses on reducing expenses to extract remaining value.
The document discusses how product life cycles, demand, and optimal marketing strategies vary depending on the product, technology changes, and rate of customer adoption through innovators, early adopters,
The document discusses the product life cycle of marketing management. It begins by introducing the four stages of a product's life cycle: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. It then provides examples like 3D TVs in the introduction stage and tablets in the growth stage. For each stage, it outlines the typical characteristics like low sales and high costs in introduction and rapidly rising sales in growth. Finally, it discusses implications of the product life cycle concept for assessing opportunities, threats, and adjusting marketing strategies.
The document discusses the product life cycle, which consists of four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. Each stage is characterized by different sales volumes, costs, profits, and marketing objectives. The introduction stage involves building product awareness at high costs and negative profits. Growth sees rapidly rising sales through expanded distribution and lower prices. Maturity reaches peak sales with efforts to maximize profits and defend market share. Finally, decline has falling sales and profits as the product is phased out.
The document discusses product life cycle management from concept development through commercialization, maturity, and end of life. It covers integrating product life cycle management with related areas like new product development, supply chain management, and customer relationship management. Key aspects of PLM include managing all product data and changes throughout the life cycle, integrating data across systems, and collaborating with internal and external stakeholders.
Product life cycle & marketing strategiesAmar Ingale
The document discusses the product life cycle and marketing strategies at different stages. It defines the product life cycle as having 5 stages: development, introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. Each stage poses different challenges and opportunities for sellers. The strategies discussed include penetrating pricing in introduction, expanding distribution in growth, modifying products/markets/marketing in maturity, and harvesting/divesting in decline.
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides views on specific regions including the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, and other emerging markets. It notes recent price movements and economic indicators. For most areas it expresses a negative or cautious outlook given ongoing challenges and risks in the global economy.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Nicola Arnold
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides perspectives on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It notes that central bank actions have inflated asset prices temporarily but that the large US national debt poses long-term sustainability issues. For Japan, it expects more stimulus measures to weaken the Yen further. The outlook is mostly negative given continued risks from high debt levels and prospects for currency depreciation from monetary easing.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The henley group's market outlook may 13Gary Lansdown
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, commodities, and alternative investments. For equities, it provides views on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. Key points discussed include the weakening Japanese yen, volatility in Japanese government bonds, mixed signals in the US and European economies, and recovering housing markets in the US and UK. Overall it maintains a mostly negative outlook due to ongoing debt and economic challenges while also highlighting some positive signs in selected areas.
Everyone enjoys a nice surprise - especially the ones that cause you to grin ear to ear, smile non-stop and wish the moment will never end.
There can also be bad surprises - and these are not the least bit enjoyable.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we explain how governments are about to experience a bad surprise. And their reaction to these surprises will be significantly higher taxes for everyone.
There will also be a good surprise - adjusting your portfolios in anticipation of the bad surprise will allow you to not only preserve your capital, but also have you grinning ear to ear.
We invite you to read more.
1. The portfolio manager discusses the market performance in Q2 2014, with the Canadian equity markets outperforming other global regions.
2. He explains that central bank monetary policies, particularly from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have been a key driver for the stock market rally over the past few years by keeping interest rates low.
3. The portfolio manager reiterates his advice to investors to stick to their customized plans and not be deterred by short-term market fluctuations, as the plans are designed to navigate periods of volatility.
The global markets were volatile in Q1 2014 due to inconsistent economic data, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, and fears of slowing growth in China. Canadian markets performed best, gaining 6.2%, while US, European, and emerging markets also posted strong returns. The portfolio manager recommends sticking to a diversified plan and not making hasty decisions during periods of market uncertainty. Maintaining a balanced portfolio with stocks, bonds, and cash helps reduce risk and smooth returns over the long run.
This document discusses myths and realities about the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the markets and economy. It notes that while the speed of the market decline has been unprecedented, markets have recovered from deeper drawdowns historically. Government stimulus and an end to widespread shutdowns will determine the pace of economic and market recovery. Once containment measures are lifted and information becomes available, markets will recover from their oversold levels, creating a buying opportunity. Investors are advised to maintain discipline and long-term perspectives, rather than trying to time short-term volatility.
This report has been prepared by Cushman & Wakefield to provide an overview of the world’s key commercial real estate investment markets in 2014 and an indication of performance in 2015.
12:1:14 Global-Macro Trading SimulationPaul D. Kim
This document provides an analysis of currency and equity market trends from June 2014 through November 2014. It summarizes performance data showing gains in equity/futures and FX currency accounts compared to benchmark indexes. Charts are presented analyzing long-term trends in the US dollar index, euro-dollar exchange rate, and dollar-yen exchange rate, suggesting a breakout in the US dollar. Positions are listed that are expected to benefit from this US dollar strengthening and emerging market weakness.
The document provides an overview of markets and investment outlook from various managers in the last quarter. Key points include:
- Markets performed well despite initial Brexit reaction, with UK and international equities rising. Bonds and commodities also rose.
- Managers are assessing economic outlooks, seeing potential for US growth but concerns in Europe. Some see opportunities from coordinated fiscal plans.
- Managers have mixed views on regions like Japan, Europe, and property exposure. Bonds are largely held for safety over yield.
- The outlook discusses navigating uncertainty after Brexit through diversification. Unemployment rates suggest the UK economy remains stronger than Eurozone economies.
The document provides an overview of markets and investment outlook from various managers in the last quarter. Key points include:
- Markets performed well despite initial Brexit reaction, with UK and international equities rising. Bonds and commodities also rose.
- Managers are assessing economic outlooks, seeing potential for US growth but concerns in Europe. Some see opportunities from coordinated fiscal plans.
- Managers have mixed views on regions like Japan, Europe, and property exposure. Bonds are largely held for safety over yield.
- The outlook discusses navigating uncertainty after Brexit through diversification. Unemployment rates suggest the UK economy remains stronger than Eurozone economies.
The portfolio manager provides a summary of market performance in 2012, an outlook for 2013, and commentary on portfolio strategy. Key points include: global markets gained over 10% in 2012 despite concerns over Europe and the US fiscal cliff; volatility is expected to continue in 2013 due to unresolved debt issues; the portfolio is diversified across regions and maintains an appropriate level of risk for clients through its asset allocation model.
This document discusses the global financial crisis that began in 2007-2008 and its impacts. It provides background on how the crisis started with the US housing market collapse and spread globally. It then summarizes recent news headlines reflecting ongoing issues and debates around global economic recovery efforts. Charts on international trade flows and GDP statistics by country are also presented.
OFIP Q4 2011 - The Year Of Living Dangerouslybwoyat
- The document provides a quarterly commentary from OceanForest Investment Partners on market performance in Q4 2011 and their outlook.
- Key events from 2011 included political upheaval in North Africa/Middle East, natural disasters, and economic turmoil. The US stock market gained 1.99% while other markets declined.
- The portfolio managers expect more volatility globally in 2012. Their portfolios are positioned defensively with cash levels from 12-19% depending on the mandate. They remain focused on high-quality dividend-paying stocks.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
- Global stock markets rose strongly in the third quarter of 2010, with the S&P 500 experiencing its best September performance since 1939 due to gains in the telecommunications sector.
- Commodity prices also increased, with base metal prices leading gains, while bond markets were boosted by strong investor demand that pushed yields lower.
- By the end of the third quarter, fears of a slowdown in China's economy, a double-dip recession in the US, and the European sovereign debt crisis all subsided, helping fuel the stock market rebound.
AI Transformation Playbook: Thinking AI-First for Your BusinessArijit Dutta
I dive into how businesses can stay competitive by integrating AI into their core processes. From identifying the right approach to building collaborative teams and recognizing common pitfalls, this guide has got you covered. AI transformation is a journey, and this playbook is here to help you navigate it successfully.
Adani Group Requests For Additional Land For Its Dharavi Redevelopment Projec...Adani case
It will bring about growth and development not only in Maharashtra but also in our country as a whole, which will experience prosperity. The project will also give the Adani Group an opportunity to rise above the controversies that have been ongoing since the Adani CBI Investigation.
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
Enhancing Adoption of AI in Agri-food: IntroductionCor Verdouw
Introduction to the Panel on: Pathways and Challenges: AI-Driven Technology in Agri-Food, AI4Food, University of Guelph
“Enhancing Adoption of AI in Agri-food: a Path Forward”, 18 June 2024
➒➌➎➏➑➐➋➑➐➐ Satta Matka Dpboss Matka Guessing Indian Matka
KALYAN MATKA | MATKA RESULT | KALYAN MATKA TIPS | SATTA MATKA | MATKA.COM | MATKA PANA JODI TODAY | BATTA SATKA | MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER | MATKA RESULTS | MATKA CHART | MATKA JODI | SATTA COM | FULL RATE GAME | MATKA GAME | MATKA WAPKA | ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE | MATKA RESULT | KALYAN MATKA RESULT | DPBOSS MATKA 143 | MAIN MATKA
Adani Group's Active Interest In Increasing Its Presence in the Cement Manufa...Adani case
Time and again, the business group has taken up new business ventures, each of which has allowed it to expand its horizons further and reach new heights. Even amidst the Adani CBI Investigation, the firm has always focused on improving its cement business.
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
Tired of chasing down expiring contracts and drowning in paperwork? Mastering contract management can significantly enhance your business efficiency and productivity. This guide unveils expert secrets to streamline your contract management process. Learn how to save time, minimize risk, and achieve effortless contract management.
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...Niswey
50 million companies worldwide leverage WhatsApp as a key marketing channel. You may have considered adding it to your marketing mix, or probably already driving impressive conversions with WhatsApp.
But wait. What happens when you fully integrate your WhatsApp campaigns with HubSpot?
That's exactly what we explored in this session.
We take a look at everything that you need to know in order to deploy effective WhatsApp marketing strategies, and integrate it with your buyer journey in HubSpot. From technical requirements to innovative campaign strategies, to advanced campaign reporting - we discuss all that and more, to leverage WhatsApp for maximum impact. Check out more details about the event here https://events.hubspot.com/events/details/hubspot-new-delhi-presents-unlocking-whatsapp-marketing-with-hubspot-integrating-messaging-into-your-marketing-strategy/
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
➒➌➎➏➑➐➋➑➐➐ Satta Matka Dpboss Matka Guessing Indian Matka KALYAN MATKA | MATKA RESULT | KALYAN MATKA TIPS | SATTA MATKA | MATKA.COM | MATKA PANA JODI TODAY | BATTA SATKA | MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER | MATKA RESULTS | MATKA CHART | MATKA JODI | SATTA COM | FULL RATE GAME | MATKA GAME | MATKA WAPKA | ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE | MATKA RESULT | KALYAN MATKA RESULT | DPBOSS MATKA 143 | MAIN MATKA
L'indice de performance des ports à conteneurs de l'année 2023SPATPortToamasina
Une évaluation comparable de la performance basée sur le temps d'escale des navires
L'objectif de l'ICPP est d'identifier les domaines d'amélioration qui peuvent en fin de compte bénéficier à toutes les parties concernées, des compagnies maritimes aux gouvernements nationaux en passant par les consommateurs. Il est conçu pour servir de point de référence aux principaux acteurs de l'économie mondiale, notamment les autorités et les opérateurs portuaires, les gouvernements nationaux, les organisations supranationales, les agences de développement, les divers intérêts maritimes et d'autres acteurs publics et privés du commerce, de la logistique et des services de la chaîne d'approvisionnement.
Le développement de l'ICPP repose sur le temps total passé par les porte-conteneurs dans les ports, de la manière expliquée dans les sections suivantes du rapport, et comme dans les itérations précédentes de l'ICPP. Cette quatrième itération utilise des données pour l'année civile complète 2023. Elle poursuit le changement introduit l'année dernière en n'incluant que les ports qui ont eu un minimum de 24 escales valides au cours de la période de 12 mois de l'étude. Le nombre de ports inclus dans l'ICPP 2023 est de 405.
Comme dans les éditions précédentes de l'ICPP, la production du classement fait appel à deux approches méthodologiques différentes : une approche administrative, ou technique, une méthodologie pragmatique reflétant les connaissances et le jugement des experts ; et une approche statistique, utilisant l'analyse factorielle (AF), ou plus précisément la factorisation matricielle. L'utilisation de ces deux approches vise à garantir que le classement des performances des ports à conteneurs reflète le plus fidèlement possible les performances réelles des ports, tout en étant statistiquement robuste.
➒➌➎➏➑➐➋➑➐➐ Satta Matka Dpboss Matka Guessing Indian Matka KALYAN MATKA | MATKA RESULT | KALYAN MATKA TIPS | SATTA MATKA | MATKA.COM | MATKA PANA JODI TODAY | BATTA SATKA | MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER | MATKA RESULTS | MATKA CHART | MATKA JODI | SATTA COM | FULL RATE GAME | MATKA GAME | MATKA WAPKA | ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE | MATKA RESULT | KALYAN MATKA RESULT | DPBOSS MATKA 143 | MAIN MATKA
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4. Major theme #1 Bank bashing Sarkozy leads the charge in his official opening address Implication Banking shares appear to be high risk investment right now, but…
5. Major theme #2 Rise of China Front and centre in every discussion; represented by rising star, Vice President Li Keqiang Implication Megatrend of power shift from West to East gaining momentum, aided by Crisis
6. Major theme #3 European problems mounting Greek President George Papandreou trying his best but massive gap in credibility exists Implication Ancient problems of waste, corruption, state crowding, poor competitiveness in spotlight; Major realignment of currencies
7. Major theme #4 Climate change Despite Copenhagen’s failure, political will created through voter concern at threat to mankind Implication Massive investment in alternatives to fossil fuels; realignment of costs to increase incentives for innovation
8. Major theme #5 African awakening Continent attracting serious interest as an investment destination; IMF forecasts it is the third growth story after China and India Verdict South Africa the continental gateway, but Chinese won’t be the only competition for local firms
10. Investment pointers Bank bashing to hurt ST but re-rate sector long-term China is re-writing rules for commoditised businesses West’s structural problems to cause revaluation of subsidy distorted assets and currencies; but also lead to much increased competition globally Climate change will unleash human potential to solve energy problems – challenge fossil fuel dominance
11. More info? Subscribe to Boardroom Talk via www.moneyweb.co.za Contact alec@moneyweb.co.za Follow daily updates via www.twitter/alechogg “Friend” me at www.facebook/alechogg Listen in nightly at 6pm on SAFM (104-107FM)
14. Navigating choppy waters: Staying the course through market uncertainty It is tempting for nervous investors to make short-term moves out of uncertain markets and plan to re-enter when things are calmer However, it is very difficult to time the moves out of and back into the market, and you could end up taking needless losses and missing out on significant gains
15. Navigating choppy waters: Staying the course through market uncertainty Investors sell at the bottom – When Bad News prevails And buy at the top – When Good News prevails Therefore essential to have some sort of guidance as to what to expect from markets Where we have been – where we are now – and where are we going to be in two years time
16. The Classic Investor Cycle MAXIMUM RISK This is the best thing I have ever done !! What a good choice I made !! FUND INFLOWS This is a really good investment EUPHORIA Don’t worry the market is consolidating THINGS CANT GET BETTER DOUBT Look at last years good return Temporary setback I am a long term investor ANXIETY EXCITEMENT Maybe I panicked ! DENIAL REVIVAL Why did I ever buy this ? FEAR OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC MAXIMUM REWARD DOUBT DEPRESSION I really got bad advice Was it right to sell ?? THINGS CANT GET WORSE PANIC I will not do this again !! DESPONDENT MARKET CYCLE CAPITULATE DESPERATE I must get out. Cash is King FUND OUTFLOWS
17. Markets are NOT STUPID – THEY KNOW the existing news and circumstances Quite frankly – the market is not ALL THAT interested in the current news Markets are (basically) only interested in what is GOING TO HAPPEN, not what is actually happening Markets will discount future anticipated events That is why markets move sometimes contrary to expectations – They go up in bad time and down in good times. MARKETS MOVE ON THE DRUMBEATS OF TOMORROW HUMANS move on the drumbeats of yesterday and today
18. The Investment Clock Getting Guidance – “Road map” Markets and the economy ARE related (intricately) Therefore studying the economy and forecasting the future is VITAL in understanding markets MARKETS MOVE ON THE DRUMBEATS OF TOMORROW HUMANS move on the drumbeats of yesterday and today
19. Navigating choppy waters: The economic cycle PEAK SLOWDOWN BOTTOM RECOVERY MAXIMUM RISK GOOD NEWS STRONG GROWTH INFLATION LOW INTEREST RATES LOW THINGS CAN’T GET ANY BETTER START OF DOWN TURN INFLATION RISING INTEREST RATES RISING INFLATION MODERATING INTEREST RATES AT PEAK ECONOMY IN TROUBLE THINGS CAN’T GET ANY WORSE INFLATION FALLING INTEREST RATES DOWN GROWTH INPROVING MAXIMUM REWARD
20. The investment clock – the basic economic cycle Peak Expansion Slowdown Bottom 20
21. The investment clock – inflation and growth FallingInflationRising Peak Expansion FallingInflation Rising Slowdown Bottom FallingInflationRising 21
22. The investment clock – inflation and growth FallingInflationRising Peak Expansion FallingGrowthRising FallingGrowth Rising FallingGrowthRising Slowdown Bottom FallingInflationRising 22
23. The investment clock – asset returns FallingInflationRising Neutral Equity Peak Expansion Sell Sell Max Underweight Equity Max Overweight Equity FallingGrowthRising FallingGrowthRising Buy Buy Bottom Slowdown Neutral Equity FallingInflationRising 23
25. Inflation falling rising Overheat Recovery rising Growth falling Contraction Stagflation Average return during the relevant phase since 1960 Average annual asset class return since 1960 Investment clock – back-tested asset class returns since 1960 25
34. …instead Global equities recovered strongly since March 2009 MSCI World Index (in US$) (1133.3) The MSCI World gained 31% in 2009 and the MSCI EM gained a record 79%. Source: I-Net Bridge
35. The US market has recovered astonishingly quickly….. Source: Macquarie Research; Quarterly Strategy, 27 January 2010
36. 2009 highlights Central banks and governments threw money at the credit crisis Governments increased spending Governments cut taxes and provided subsidies for the purchase of houses, cars and household appliances Central banks bought government bonds (Quantitative Easing) Source: Slate; Plexus Asset Management
37. 2009 highlights China helped pull the rest of the world out of recession GDP growth “recovered” from 6.1% in the 1st quarter to 10.7% in the 4th quarter and is forecast to grow 9.4% in 2010 China overtook Germany to be the world’s largest exporter China overtook the US to become the world's largest car market Source: JP Morgan
38. 2009 highlights The global recession ended in the 3rd quarter The recession in the developed world ended in the 3rd quarter but unemployment remains high at 9.7% in the US, 10.0% in Europe and 24.3% in SA Source: Plexus Asset Management
39. 2009 highlights The dollar came under pressure The dollar weakened on declining risk aversion and a resumption of the carry trade as the Fed drove rates down to 0.25% Commodities rallied with the oil price doubling and the gold price hitting a new high of $1220 Commodity currencies also benefitted with the Brazillian Real up 33%, the Rand up 28%, the Aussie Dollar up 24% and the Norwegian Krone up 20% Source: Appraisal News Online, Plexus Asset Management
40. Commodity fund flow - December 2009 Cumulative inflows by year US$ billions Source: JPMorgan and Bloomberg
41. ... but copper looks vulnerable to rising inventories Source: Citigroup Global Markets; 8 January 2010
44. No surprises here - the market has leaped upward! The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (in ZAR) (26764.6) The JSE rose more than 100% in US$ since the beginning of March 2009 to December 2009 -45.4% 47.4% Source: I-Net Bridge
45. So we better see some earnings come through! Trailing PE: 17.4x EPS-growth: 30%* Forward PE: 13.4x Exit PE 14.5x Expected Return: 12% (3% DY) SA Equities: Earnings GrowthSince 1960 to end February 2010, Rolling 12-month %-change * I-Net consensus Source: I-Net Bridge
46. Markets can go sideways for an extended period Dow Jones: 1975 to 1982
47. Increased volatility offers opportunities for stock pickers Dow Jones: 1975 to 1982 Cum.% p.a. % Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 676% 34% Sequoia Fund (Bill Ruane) 415% 28%
48. Increased volatility offers opportunities for stock picking Number of Doubles or Greater Over Rolling One-Year Period (Top 500 Companies) Number of Doubles or Greater Over Rolling Three-Year Periods (Top 500 Companies) Number of Doubles or Greater Over Rolling Three-Year Periods (Top 500 Companies) Source: Empirical Research Partners, Legg Mason Capital Management
49. Discovery Equity FundTop 10 Equity Holdings (% of fund) ….the fund is VERY DIFFERENT to the market and the average fund
50. Discovery Equity Fund Cumulative performance as at 31 January 2010 Source: Morningstar Returns are calculated on a bid-to-bid basis, net of fees, with gross income reinvested.
51.
52. Summary – steadily shifting back into cautious mode “The central principle of investment is to go contrary to the general opinion” JM Keynes We anticipate a great environment for stock picking We are buying quality and under-valued laggards We are attracted to stocks with resilient, depressed or below average profit margins We remain underweight Resources (except for paper, gold, energy and a fledgling position in steel) We are positioning for Rand weakness and are most attracted to non-commodity Rand hedges We remain concerned about the current momentum Risk-premia across a variety of stocks and asset classes are way too low and investors should be more discerning from this point forward Equities should outperform bonds and cash. However, on a prospective basis, the return for equities could prove disappointing relative to current expectations
53. Equity markets almost always peak when rates are low, so moving in desperation away from low rates into substantially overpriced equities always ends badly Jeremy Grantham
55. Disclaimer All information and opinions provided are of a general nature and are not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. No one should act upon such information or opinion without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of a particular situation. We endeavour to provide accurate and timely information but we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the correctness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions. We do not undertake to update, modify or amend the information on a frequent basis or to advise any person if such information subsequently becomes inaccurate. Any representation or opinion is provided for information purposes only. Investec Asset Management will not be held liable or responsible for any direct or consequential loss or damage suffered by any party as a result of that party acting on or failing to act on the basis of the information provided by or omitted from this document. This document may not be amended, reproduced, distributed or published without the prior written consent of Investec Asset Management. In the event that specific collective investment schemes in securities (unit trusts) are mentioned please refer to the relevant fact sheet in order to obtain all the necessary information in regard to that unit trust. Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long-term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. CIS are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from the company/scheme. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, would be included in the overall costs. Forward pricing is used. Certain Investec Asset Management funds are offered as long-term insurance policies issued by Investec Assurance Limited, a registered insurer in terms of the Long-term Insurance Act. Investec Asset Management is an authorised financial services provider.