1) The document summarizes the impact of falling oil prices on the Houston regional economy. It discusses how lower oil prices have devastated cash flows in the oil industry and caused layoffs, bankruptcies, and a steep drop in rig counts.
2) It compares the current situation to previous downturns in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. It argues the current situation most resembles the 1990s, with slower job growth across many industries and job losses in oil and gas.
3) It forecasts 50,000 new jobs in Houston in 2015, slower than previous years, but ongoing major construction projects could partially offset losses in oil and gas. Overall, the regional economy will grow more
These slides are the from the Association's annual Economic Summit featuring Economist Dr. Walden, Economic Directors: Dwight, Basset and Alyssa Byrd and Chamber CEO Kim Tesoro from Hillsborough Chamber of Commerce
This document provides a weekly newsletter on commodity market signals and analysis from EQS Capital Management. It summarizes recent jobs and economic data and discusses its implications. The main points are:
1) The latest jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, but digging deeper reveals many of the new jobs are low-paying, part-time roles. This calls into question how much the data really indicates economic strength.
2) Commodity prices fell last week on signs of increased supply and weaker demand outlook. Oil inventories rose again and production increases are outpacing expectations of declines.
3) Natural gas prices also declined as inventories hit record levels for the time of year. Mild weather forecasts suggest storage
Patrick jankowski- 2019 Economic Outlook for Southeast TexasCharlie Foxworth
Southeast Texas Economic Development Foundation slides for the economic outlook for Southeast Texas in 2019. All systems are go for a good year. The only thing that can hold us back is our belief that we are "overdue" for a recession. Stay positive.
Current overview and outlook of the Portland, Oregon housing market. Details recent affordability trends in addition to new construction, demand, demographics, remodeling work and the continued impact of the housing bubble aftermath. Forecasts provided for population growth, new construction and prices.
This document discusses how Houston is poised to become the next great global city. It highlights Houston's steady job growth and economic recovery since the recession, with the metro area outpacing other large cities in the US in jobs recovered. Charts show growth in key economic indicators for Houston such as vehicle sales, building permits, and home sales. The energy industry continues to be an important driver for Houston, as shown in charts on oil production and gas prices. However, the document also notes Houston is working to diversify its economy beyond energy. It concludes by identifying seven emerging themes that will be important for Houston's further development as a leading global city, including education, transportation, quality of life, economic drivers, and its increasing diversity.
- Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2014 but this contraction is expected to be temporary. The public sector has weighed on overall growth but may soon contribute to growth again.
- While the budget deficit is shrinking, there is no credible plan to return to a budget surplus. Business investment and personal consumption expenditures also declined slightly in Q1 but are expected to pick up going forward.
- The unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market as discouraged workers and part-time employment remain issues. Wage growth has been slow and consumer spending growth is expected to remain subdued.
The document provides an economic outlook for 2015 from K.C. Conway, an economist. Some key points:
1) Houston had strong job growth in 2014 but may see slower growth in 2015, especially if oil prices remain low. Texas is expected to lose around 140,000 energy-related jobs.
2) National GDP growth is forecast to remain around 2.5-3% in 2015. Job growth is expected to average 225,000 jobs per month nationally.
3) The housing market outlook calls for total housing starts around 1-1.1 million units, with single family starts between 700,000-750,000. Metrics like home price appreciation and job-to-housing permit ratios will
The document provides an economic outlook for 2015 from K.C. Conway, an economist. Some key points:
1) Houston had strong job growth in 2014 but may see slower growth in 2015, especially if oil prices remain low. The Dallas Fed estimates Texas could lose 140,000 energy-related jobs.
2) National GDP growth is expected to remain around 2.5-3% in 2015. Private payrolls grew steadily in 2014 according to ADP but official government jobs data may be revised.
3) The housing market outlook is positive but single family home construction may be slightly lower in 2015 at 700,000-750,000 units rather than over 1 million. Multi-family construction will be
These slides are the from the Association's annual Economic Summit featuring Economist Dr. Walden, Economic Directors: Dwight, Basset and Alyssa Byrd and Chamber CEO Kim Tesoro from Hillsborough Chamber of Commerce
This document provides a weekly newsletter on commodity market signals and analysis from EQS Capital Management. It summarizes recent jobs and economic data and discusses its implications. The main points are:
1) The latest jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, but digging deeper reveals many of the new jobs are low-paying, part-time roles. This calls into question how much the data really indicates economic strength.
2) Commodity prices fell last week on signs of increased supply and weaker demand outlook. Oil inventories rose again and production increases are outpacing expectations of declines.
3) Natural gas prices also declined as inventories hit record levels for the time of year. Mild weather forecasts suggest storage
Patrick jankowski- 2019 Economic Outlook for Southeast TexasCharlie Foxworth
Southeast Texas Economic Development Foundation slides for the economic outlook for Southeast Texas in 2019. All systems are go for a good year. The only thing that can hold us back is our belief that we are "overdue" for a recession. Stay positive.
Current overview and outlook of the Portland, Oregon housing market. Details recent affordability trends in addition to new construction, demand, demographics, remodeling work and the continued impact of the housing bubble aftermath. Forecasts provided for population growth, new construction and prices.
This document discusses how Houston is poised to become the next great global city. It highlights Houston's steady job growth and economic recovery since the recession, with the metro area outpacing other large cities in the US in jobs recovered. Charts show growth in key economic indicators for Houston such as vehicle sales, building permits, and home sales. The energy industry continues to be an important driver for Houston, as shown in charts on oil production and gas prices. However, the document also notes Houston is working to diversify its economy beyond energy. It concludes by identifying seven emerging themes that will be important for Houston's further development as a leading global city, including education, transportation, quality of life, economic drivers, and its increasing diversity.
- Real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2014 but this contraction is expected to be temporary. The public sector has weighed on overall growth but may soon contribute to growth again.
- While the budget deficit is shrinking, there is no credible plan to return to a budget surplus. Business investment and personal consumption expenditures also declined slightly in Q1 but are expected to pick up going forward.
- The unemployment rate overstates the health of the labor market as discouraged workers and part-time employment remain issues. Wage growth has been slow and consumer spending growth is expected to remain subdued.
The document provides an economic outlook for 2015 from K.C. Conway, an economist. Some key points:
1) Houston had strong job growth in 2014 but may see slower growth in 2015, especially if oil prices remain low. Texas is expected to lose around 140,000 energy-related jobs.
2) National GDP growth is forecast to remain around 2.5-3% in 2015. Job growth is expected to average 225,000 jobs per month nationally.
3) The housing market outlook calls for total housing starts around 1-1.1 million units, with single family starts between 700,000-750,000. Metrics like home price appreciation and job-to-housing permit ratios will
The document provides an economic outlook for 2015 from K.C. Conway, an economist. Some key points:
1) Houston had strong job growth in 2014 but may see slower growth in 2015, especially if oil prices remain low. The Dallas Fed estimates Texas could lose 140,000 energy-related jobs.
2) National GDP growth is expected to remain around 2.5-3% in 2015. Private payrolls grew steadily in 2014 according to ADP but official government jobs data may be revised.
3) The housing market outlook is positive but single family home construction may be slightly lower in 2015 at 700,000-750,000 units rather than over 1 million. Multi-family construction will be
This document discusses how Houston has emerged from the recession stronger than other major cities and is poised to become a global city. It provides statistics showing Houston's economy remained strong through the recession with steady job and population growth. Specifically, Houston had relatively shallow job losses in the recession compared to other large cities and has recovered jobs faster than most peer cities. The document argues Houston is well-positioned for continued growth due to its diverse economy, low costs, business-friendly environment, and focus on key industries like energy and healthcare.
The document provides an overview of Houston's economy presented at an event in 2010. It summarizes that Houston has a large land area and population that would make it one of the biggest US states. Its economy is driven by industries like energy, aerospace, healthcare, and shipping. While Houston was hit hard by the recession, its economy has been recovering, with growing job numbers and business activity returning to pre-recession levels. The presentation concludes that Houston will continue growing to be a major economic center in the US and globally in the coming decades.
Houston’s Energy Angst - Yardi Matrix Multifamily Winter 2016 ReportAdelina Osan
Rent growth in Houston has decelerated as the city's energy-driven economy has been impacted by low oil prices. While the economy has diversified, the drop in crude oil prices has slowed job and population growth and dampened the apartment market. Rent growth was 3.5% year-over-year in Houston compared to 6.2% nationally, and rents have declined on a trailing three-month basis. The outlook for multifamily fundamentals is uncertain due to slowing rent growth and a large amount of new supply in the pipeline that could pressure rents further, although rent growth is still forecast at 4.7% for 2016. The investment market in Houston is also beginning to sour as deal flow and pricing start
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - Wha...BoyarMiller
This document summarizes presentations from a Houston commercial real estate market breakfast forum on December 4, 2009. It includes summaries of the Houston industrial, homebuilding, land development, and office markets. For the industrial market, it notes that financing remains an obstacle as commercial mortgage backed securities issuance dropped significantly. It also discusses the key drivers of the Houston industrial market as national economy, trade, and energy. For homebuilding, it provides statistics on housing starts and notes an inventory reduction. The document summarizes challenges still facing the markets and perspectives on the economy.
Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead fo...BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the look ahead for Houston's Commercial Real Estate for 2015.
Speakers included: Will Holder with Trendmaker Homes; Allen H. Crosswell, with NewQuest Crosswell; Jonathan Brinsden with Midway; and Welcome Wilson, Jr. with Welcome Group.
Oil, easy money and the reach for yield presented on 5 26 2016 to CFA LASteve Worthington
CFA Society of LA: SANTA BARBARA LUNCHEON SERIES:
"OIL, EASY MONEY AND THE REACH FOR YIELD"
Technological advances in the last 40 years have led to an increased supply of global oil and gas as well as a doubling of production in the US over the past decade. Growth in the demand for energy has been a large driver of the “Commodities Super Cycle”. The Federal Reserve’s easy money policy has also contributed to the increase in energy supply and this has had worldwide consequences.
Westfield, MA 01085 Real Estate Market Report January / February 2017Lesley Lambert
The document provides a real estate market report for Westfield, MA for January/February 2017. It includes data on median home sales prices, housing inventory, and demographic information for the area. Charts show trends in home values, sales, listings, and other housing and economic data for the neighborhood. The report also provides details on 20 newly listed properties on the market.
BoyarMiller Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2016BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the Current State of the Capital Markets. Speakers included:
- Drew Kanaly, Kanaly Trust – Equity & the Public Markets
- Cliff Atherton, GulfStar Group – Private Equity and M&A
- John Sarvadi, Texas Capital Bank – Commercial Banking & Real Estate Lending
This document provides an overview of real estate market conditions in Houston across various property types from Q4 2016. It summarizes office, industrial, retail, multifamily, and construction market metrics and trends. Vacancy rates increased slightly in the office sector while remaining stable and low for industrial. Absorption decreased for retail but multifamily demand stabilized. The construction pipeline reflects growth in multifamily development while other sectors scale back. The market is forecast to see leveling vacancy rates and flat rents in 2017 across most property types.
The document discusses various resources available from the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC) to support local development projects and initiatives. It outlines programs that provide funding for environmental assessments, brownfield cleanups, catalytic development projects, and historic preservation. Specific grant programs are described, and examples are given of projects the funding has supported. Contact information is provided for WEDC representatives who can discuss how communities can access and make use of these state development assistance opportunities.
Sustainable Coastal Development: Finding Certainty in Uncertain TimesOregon Sea Grant
The document discusses key trends and challenges facing cities including globalization, climate change, technological innovation, aging infrastructure, and changing demographics. It analyzes population and employment changes in various cities between 1970-2020 and investment in areas like venture capital and university research. Quality of life factors like parks, culture and education are also examined. Lessons for cities include the need for leadership, a clear vision and goals, institutional capacity, transparency, appropriate financing, land control, design excellence, and public trust in development partnerships.
The document provides an overview and forecast of the 2014 commercial real estate market from K.C. Conway, Chief Economist at Colliers International. Conway predicts GDP growth will slow in the first half of 2014 but employment growth will continue below 200k per month. He also expects interest rates to remain volatile between 2-4% and debt capital to remain attractive. Conway notes the industrial real estate market will be influenced by the expanded Panama Canal and potential port labor strikes. Houston's commercial real estate market is highlighted as strong, with the city expected to absorb new multifamily supply and benefit from continued energy sector job growth.
The document summarizes a real estate market update seminar presented by Joshua Wilton of Weichert Realtors in Princeton, NJ. It analyzes the Princeton and greater Princeton real estate markets, including inventory levels, absorption rates, and forecasts for 2010. It also discusses strategies for buying and selling properties and provides an overview of the local, state, and national housing markets.
The document discusses the economic impacts of hurricanes and shows that while hurricanes initially cause job and home sales losses, the affected areas typically see strong job growth and rising home sales 6-12 months later as rebuilding efforts take place. Graphs and data show examples of this pattern for New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina and Punta Gorda, Florida after Hurricane Charlie, with both areas experiencing higher employment within a few years. Additional charts track broader economic indicators like national job and home sales growth after 2004's Hurricane Charlie.
Colliers International Houston Trends 2017Coy Davidson
This document contains multiple charts and graphs summarizing real estate market trends in Houston, Texas from 2001 to 2016. It shows that drilling permits and rig counts in Texas peaked in the late 2000s and declined sharply after 2014. Houston gained over 100,000 jobs annually from 2009 to 2013 but saw job losses in the energy sector after 2014. Office vacancy rates in Houston doubled from the early 1980s to late 1980s during a period of rapid office development. The industrial, retail, multifamily, and construction sectors are also analyzed with statistics on vacancies, rents, absorption, construction projects, and sales.
This document contains multiple charts and graphs summarizing real estate market trends in Houston, Texas from 2001 to 2016. It shows that drilling permits and rig counts in Texas peaked in the late 2000s and declined sharply after 2014. Houston gained over 100,000 jobs annually from 2009 to 2013 but saw job losses in the energy sector after 2014. Office vacancy rates doubled during the 1980s with an increase in inventory but have since declined. The industrial, retail, and multifamily sectors have been more stable with steady absorption and occupancy rates. The outlook for 2017 is for leveling vacancy rates in office and flat or increasing rents across property types.
A list (as of November 2015) of 36 oil and gas companies that filed for bankruptcy protection in 2015. The downturn in prices has affected many O&G companies. Law firm Haynes and Boone track the list, and warn that others may yet be added to it before the end of 2015.
NRWA - Infrastructure: Building America's Water Future - Ian LyleTWCA
The document summarizes information presented at the Texas Water Conservation Association Annual Meeting on March 8, 2018. It discusses the National Water Resources Association (NWRA), which represents water providers in western and southeastern states. It notes increasing water demands in Texas and other western states. It also discusses federal funding and budget requests for infrastructure from the US Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation. Finally, it outlines President Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan and upcoming legislation and issues around water resources.
This document provides a summary of energy prices and production trends in the United States and globally. It includes charts and graphs showing:
1) Crude oil and natural gas prices in the US and worldwide fluctuating between 2009-2017.
2) US oil and gas production reaching record highs while rig counts decline.
3) Texas leading US oil production with the majority from the Permian Basin region.
4) Gasoline consumption and inventories stable in recent months.
Moderator: Harry Harrison, Director of Construction Process Plants and Industrial Business Unit, Wood Group Mustang
Panelists: Daniel Groves, CEO, Construction Labor Market Analyzer (CLMA); Roger Gossett, President, JV Driver Group
This document discusses how Houston has emerged from the recession stronger than other major cities and is poised to become a global city. It provides statistics showing Houston's economy remained strong through the recession with steady job and population growth. Specifically, Houston had relatively shallow job losses in the recession compared to other large cities and has recovered jobs faster than most peer cities. The document argues Houston is well-positioned for continued growth due to its diverse economy, low costs, business-friendly environment, and focus on key industries like energy and healthcare.
The document provides an overview of Houston's economy presented at an event in 2010. It summarizes that Houston has a large land area and population that would make it one of the biggest US states. Its economy is driven by industries like energy, aerospace, healthcare, and shipping. While Houston was hit hard by the recession, its economy has been recovering, with growing job numbers and business activity returning to pre-recession levels. The presentation concludes that Houston will continue growing to be a major economic center in the US and globally in the coming decades.
Houston’s Energy Angst - Yardi Matrix Multifamily Winter 2016 ReportAdelina Osan
Rent growth in Houston has decelerated as the city's energy-driven economy has been impacted by low oil prices. While the economy has diversified, the drop in crude oil prices has slowed job and population growth and dampened the apartment market. Rent growth was 3.5% year-over-year in Houston compared to 6.2% nationally, and rents have declined on a trailing three-month basis. The outlook for multifamily fundamentals is uncertain due to slowing rent growth and a large amount of new supply in the pipeline that could pressure rents further, although rent growth is still forecast at 4.7% for 2016. The investment market in Houston is also beginning to sour as deal flow and pricing start
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - Wha...BoyarMiller
This document summarizes presentations from a Houston commercial real estate market breakfast forum on December 4, 2009. It includes summaries of the Houston industrial, homebuilding, land development, and office markets. For the industrial market, it notes that financing remains an obstacle as commercial mortgage backed securities issuance dropped significantly. It also discusses the key drivers of the Houston industrial market as national economy, trade, and energy. For homebuilding, it provides statistics on housing starts and notes an inventory reduction. The document summarizes challenges still facing the markets and perspectives on the economy.
Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead fo...BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the look ahead for Houston's Commercial Real Estate for 2015.
Speakers included: Will Holder with Trendmaker Homes; Allen H. Crosswell, with NewQuest Crosswell; Jonathan Brinsden with Midway; and Welcome Wilson, Jr. with Welcome Group.
Oil, easy money and the reach for yield presented on 5 26 2016 to CFA LASteve Worthington
CFA Society of LA: SANTA BARBARA LUNCHEON SERIES:
"OIL, EASY MONEY AND THE REACH FOR YIELD"
Technological advances in the last 40 years have led to an increased supply of global oil and gas as well as a doubling of production in the US over the past decade. Growth in the demand for energy has been a large driver of the “Commodities Super Cycle”. The Federal Reserve’s easy money policy has also contributed to the increase in energy supply and this has had worldwide consequences.
Westfield, MA 01085 Real Estate Market Report January / February 2017Lesley Lambert
The document provides a real estate market report for Westfield, MA for January/February 2017. It includes data on median home sales prices, housing inventory, and demographic information for the area. Charts show trends in home values, sales, listings, and other housing and economic data for the neighborhood. The report also provides details on 20 newly listed properties on the market.
BoyarMiller Forum: The Current State of the Capital Markets 2016BoyarMiller
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the Current State of the Capital Markets. Speakers included:
- Drew Kanaly, Kanaly Trust – Equity & the Public Markets
- Cliff Atherton, GulfStar Group – Private Equity and M&A
- John Sarvadi, Texas Capital Bank – Commercial Banking & Real Estate Lending
This document provides an overview of real estate market conditions in Houston across various property types from Q4 2016. It summarizes office, industrial, retail, multifamily, and construction market metrics and trends. Vacancy rates increased slightly in the office sector while remaining stable and low for industrial. Absorption decreased for retail but multifamily demand stabilized. The construction pipeline reflects growth in multifamily development while other sectors scale back. The market is forecast to see leveling vacancy rates and flat rents in 2017 across most property types.
The document discusses various resources available from the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC) to support local development projects and initiatives. It outlines programs that provide funding for environmental assessments, brownfield cleanups, catalytic development projects, and historic preservation. Specific grant programs are described, and examples are given of projects the funding has supported. Contact information is provided for WEDC representatives who can discuss how communities can access and make use of these state development assistance opportunities.
Sustainable Coastal Development: Finding Certainty in Uncertain TimesOregon Sea Grant
The document discusses key trends and challenges facing cities including globalization, climate change, technological innovation, aging infrastructure, and changing demographics. It analyzes population and employment changes in various cities between 1970-2020 and investment in areas like venture capital and university research. Quality of life factors like parks, culture and education are also examined. Lessons for cities include the need for leadership, a clear vision and goals, institutional capacity, transparency, appropriate financing, land control, design excellence, and public trust in development partnerships.
The document provides an overview and forecast of the 2014 commercial real estate market from K.C. Conway, Chief Economist at Colliers International. Conway predicts GDP growth will slow in the first half of 2014 but employment growth will continue below 200k per month. He also expects interest rates to remain volatile between 2-4% and debt capital to remain attractive. Conway notes the industrial real estate market will be influenced by the expanded Panama Canal and potential port labor strikes. Houston's commercial real estate market is highlighted as strong, with the city expected to absorb new multifamily supply and benefit from continued energy sector job growth.
The document summarizes a real estate market update seminar presented by Joshua Wilton of Weichert Realtors in Princeton, NJ. It analyzes the Princeton and greater Princeton real estate markets, including inventory levels, absorption rates, and forecasts for 2010. It also discusses strategies for buying and selling properties and provides an overview of the local, state, and national housing markets.
The document discusses the economic impacts of hurricanes and shows that while hurricanes initially cause job and home sales losses, the affected areas typically see strong job growth and rising home sales 6-12 months later as rebuilding efforts take place. Graphs and data show examples of this pattern for New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina and Punta Gorda, Florida after Hurricane Charlie, with both areas experiencing higher employment within a few years. Additional charts track broader economic indicators like national job and home sales growth after 2004's Hurricane Charlie.
Colliers International Houston Trends 2017Coy Davidson
This document contains multiple charts and graphs summarizing real estate market trends in Houston, Texas from 2001 to 2016. It shows that drilling permits and rig counts in Texas peaked in the late 2000s and declined sharply after 2014. Houston gained over 100,000 jobs annually from 2009 to 2013 but saw job losses in the energy sector after 2014. Office vacancy rates in Houston doubled from the early 1980s to late 1980s during a period of rapid office development. The industrial, retail, multifamily, and construction sectors are also analyzed with statistics on vacancies, rents, absorption, construction projects, and sales.
This document contains multiple charts and graphs summarizing real estate market trends in Houston, Texas from 2001 to 2016. It shows that drilling permits and rig counts in Texas peaked in the late 2000s and declined sharply after 2014. Houston gained over 100,000 jobs annually from 2009 to 2013 but saw job losses in the energy sector after 2014. Office vacancy rates doubled during the 1980s with an increase in inventory but have since declined. The industrial, retail, and multifamily sectors have been more stable with steady absorption and occupancy rates. The outlook for 2017 is for leveling vacancy rates in office and flat or increasing rents across property types.
A list (as of November 2015) of 36 oil and gas companies that filed for bankruptcy protection in 2015. The downturn in prices has affected many O&G companies. Law firm Haynes and Boone track the list, and warn that others may yet be added to it before the end of 2015.
NRWA - Infrastructure: Building America's Water Future - Ian LyleTWCA
The document summarizes information presented at the Texas Water Conservation Association Annual Meeting on March 8, 2018. It discusses the National Water Resources Association (NWRA), which represents water providers in western and southeastern states. It notes increasing water demands in Texas and other western states. It also discusses federal funding and budget requests for infrastructure from the US Army Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation. Finally, it outlines President Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan and upcoming legislation and issues around water resources.
This document provides a summary of energy prices and production trends in the United States and globally. It includes charts and graphs showing:
1) Crude oil and natural gas prices in the US and worldwide fluctuating between 2009-2017.
2) US oil and gas production reaching record highs while rig counts decline.
3) Texas leading US oil production with the majority from the Permian Basin region.
4) Gasoline consumption and inventories stable in recent months.
Similar to Keynote: Short-term and Long-term Outlook for the Region (20)
Moderator: Harry Harrison, Director of Construction Process Plants and Industrial Business Unit, Wood Group Mustang
Panelists: Daniel Groves, CEO, Construction Labor Market Analyzer (CLMA); Roger Gossett, President, JV Driver Group
Many projects experience failures that result in poor project delivery performance or process capacity/reliability degradations after commissioning
Many studies have shown that 60% to 95% of equipment life cycle costs (TLCC) are a result of decisions made (in CAPEX) prior to handover/start-up and transfer to owners (maintenance or operations) in OPEX
Wouldn’t it make common sense to manage the risk of CAPEX project failures in advance and address equipment life cycle decisions in (CAPEX) rather than after commission handover phase (OPEX)?
Shouldn't owners "invest" in project success "insurance" to help ensure that these multi-billion dollar projects are delivered as they were intended?
Nichols is the editor/associate publisher of Hydrocarbon Processing magazine. At present, he manages all content and business development for Hydrocarbon Processing, as well as data/content for Gulf Publishing Company’s Data Division. This includes all data content for Hydrocarbon Processing’s Construction Boxscore Database, annual Market Data Book and US Gas Plant Directory.
Upstream Bust Meets Downstream Boom in Houston: The East Side Earns Some RespectEnergy Construction Forum
The oil price question is dominant for Houston’s economic outlook. Oil, and the timing of a recovery of oil markets, dominates the conversation today. In this presentation, we will see that oil is both helping and hurting right now. The drilling bust is the big negative, damaging the west side of Houston. Meanwhile, a less noticed energy boom is underway on the east side of town – $50 billion in construction of refining, petrochemical and liquefaction plants.
Attendees will get a better understanding of:
Where we have come from, and where we stand today
(5 past and present scenarios)
Houston job growth during 2015
(including losses or gains by sector)
The impact on Houston’s economy in 2016 if oil remains weak
Factors weighing on world oil markets
What the future’s market thinks about where WTI oil price is headed
How Houston’s downstream boom offsets the upstream bust
With the unprecedented build out of petrochemical facilities in the US amid collapsing crude and product prices, what marketplace will new supplies face both domestically and globally? What are the challenges for petrochemical facilities still in the planning stages? Meanwhile, how long can robust gasoline demand keep aromatics prices afloat and what challenges lie ahead for US refiners?
Attendees will get a better understanding of:
The extent of US petrochemical supply growth
How current price weakness could impact infrastructure plans
The impact of global markets on US exports and US domestic competitiveness
Why energy construction companies need to keep an eye out for all the above, how these developments will impact their business and how keeping in the loop of these developments could help them make better informed business decisions
Techniques for developing a cost-effective expansion will be presented. The key is advanced planning and evaluating constructability. The limiting large equipment capacity will be determined using process heat and material balance simulations and rating of the equipment. Once bottlenecks are determined, the rest of the facility can be revamped. Heat pinch will be used in the heat exchanger trains as heat input is usually the limiting item. A crude, vacuum and delayed coker complex expansion will be provided as an example.
Attendees will be provided with a step-by-step procedure on how to get more capacity, reduce energy usage or improve product quality from a unit or complex. Process simulations, equipment rating by computer evaluations, hydraulics, cost-estimates at the fel-0 conceptual, fel-1 factored and fel-2 take-off level will be provided. A process complex featuring three different types of units will be used as an example.
North America Crude Price Differentials: What do they Mean for Refiners and R...Energy Construction Forum
The document discusses the impact of lifting the US crude oil export ban on the US refining industry and investments. It finds that improving pipeline infrastructure and the ability to export US oil has reduced discounts for US crude oil. While discounts on light US crude have decreased, heavy Canadian crude is still discounted. US refineries remain competitive globally due to cheap natural gas and economies of scale. However, some proposed expansions to process light crude and condensate from shale may be cancelled as US crude supply declines and can now be exported.
Managers of complex energy projects struggle with delivering project performance even with implementing proven project management practices, including change management, risk management, and interface management. This presentation discusses a new approach that gives project teams a higher level of oversight, enabling more informed decisions and leading to improved project efficiency.
This presentation will highlight the major causes of cost overrun in megaprojects, and, with a focus on interface management as a recently adopted best practice, it will discuss:
The features and elements of interface management best practice,
Its correlation with other management practices, and
How these practices can be connected to interface management in a novel way to boost project compliance and efficiency.
Managing with Certainty Through Unprecedented Construction Resource Shortage Energy Construction Forum
The slate of new industrial projects on the Gulf Coast is unprecedented. A huge influx of new workers will need to be brought into the construction industry. Projects can go two ways – a disaster to cost, schedule, safety and human life or be successful by following these suggested common principles.
Next Generation of Front End Construction Driven Planning Provides Solutions ...Energy Construction Forum
Workforce planning (WFP) is an iterative, interactive, collaborative planning by operations, construction, engineering, information management, contracting and procurement that aligns engineering and procurement to support field execution and start-up. It improves predictability of cost and schedule based on attainment of productivity and progress targets.
Focused on owner and contractor organizations, this presentation highlights considerations for readiness and deployment of WFP, including prerequisites for success, key roles, KPIs, and barriers to implementation.
Keynote Address: How to Transform the Construction Industry for the 22nd CenturyEnergy Construction Forum
This document outlines 10 strategies for the construction industry in the 22nd century. It argues that the industry needs to focus on business value over projects, embrace continuous planning over stage gates, match project types to asset classes, invest in R&D to avoid commoditization, pursue modularization and robotics/automation, redefine business ecosystems, improve project controls methods, embrace relational contracting, and be frank about optimizing safety. The overarching goal is for the construction industry to innovate in order to succeed in the future.
Contractor Track: Need for Speed - Project Acceleration, Tech Trends, Logisti...Energy Construction Forum
This document discusses passive fire protection materials and their application in a shop setting. It begins with an overview of the three main types of passive fire protection: high density concrete, light weight cementitious materials, and epoxy intumescent coatings. It then focuses on the application process for epoxy intumescent coatings in a shop, including a five day application schedule. Finally, it discusses factors that affect the total installed cost, such as reduced transportation and field installation costs when applied in a shop versus in the field.
Contractor Track: Need for Speed - Project Acceleration, Tech Trends, Logisti...Energy Construction Forum
This presentation discusses driving capital projects in oil and gas to best-in-class execution. Global investment in oil and gas projects over the next two decades is anticipated to be in the trillions. However, many projects historically face cost overruns and schedule delays. Both internal factors like planning and external factors like regulations can impact projects. Operators can improve performance through standardized modularization, new business models, collaboration, and innovation to reduce risks and potentially accelerate projects.
Contractor Track: Need for Speed - Project Acceleration, Tech Trends, Logisti...Energy Construction Forum
This document discusses safety considerations for the Need for Speed project. It outlines OSHA regulations regarding workplace safety hazards and the "general duty clause." Nearly 60% of construction fatalities are due to falls, struck by object, electrocutions, and caught-in/between incidents. The document recommends developing a safety plan with training, hazard prevention, and an injury prevention program. It also provides guidance on reporting safety incidents, dealing with multi-employer sites and temporary workers, and responding to OSHA inspections or citations if issued.
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McKinsey’s Ten Guiding Principles of Digital Transformation
Forrester’s Digital Transformation Framework
IDC’s Digital Transformation MaturityScape
MIT’s Digital Transformation Framework
Gartner’s Digital Transformation Framework
Accenture’s Digital Strategy & Enterprise Frameworks
Deloitte’s Digital Industrial Transformation Framework
Capgemini’s Digital Transformation Framework
PwC’s Digital Transformation Framework
Cisco’s Digital Transformation Framework
Cognizant’s Digital Transformation Framework
DXC Technology’s Digital Transformation Framework
The BCG Strategy Palette
McKinsey’s Digital Transformation Framework
Digital Transformation Compass
Four Levels of Digital Maturity
Design Thinking Framework
Business Model Canvas
Customer Journey Map
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8. Metro GDP Growth in Perspective
$100.1 Billion $103.9 Billion
Houston GDP Growth, '08 - '13 Austin GDP ('13)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Houston Growth vs. Austin Total
9. 179
153
265
298
248
307
392
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Source: Greater Houston Partnership New Business Announcements database
New Business Announcements
50+ jobs or 20,000+ Sq Ft or $1+ million Investment
Relocations & Expansions
12. $107.95
$55.96
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Spot Price, West Texas Intermediate
June 20, 2014 February 13, 2015
Falling Oil Prices
13. $284,528
$156,206
June '14* February '15
Source: Houston Association of Realtors and Partnership calculations
Comparable Drop in Home Prices
If housing suffered the same fate
* Reflects average price of single-family home sold through HAR in June ‘14.
14. $33,600
$15,540
June '14 February '15
Comparable Drop in MSRP
If vehicle prices fell at the same rate
Source: Edmunds.com and author’s calculations
15. Q2/14* Q1/15
Source: C2ER Cost of Living Index and Partnership calculations
$8.75
$3.76
If beverages suffered the same fate
Comparable Drop in Price for Heineken Six Pack
17. Impact of Crude Price Drop on Cash Flows
Texas Average Daily Onshore Crude Production 2.4 million barrels
Decline, WTI Crude, June - January $52/barrel
WTI = West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light sweet crude
Source: Partnership calculations based on data from the Texas Railroad Commission and U.S. Energy
Information Administration
Cash flow has been devastated
18. Impact of Crude Price Drop on Cash Flows
Texas Average Daily Onshore Crude Production 2.4 million barrels
Decline, WTI Crude, June - January $52/barrel
Lost Potential Revenue – Daily $124.8 million
Lost Potential Revenue – Monthly $3.9 billion
Lost Potential Revenue – Annualized $45.5 billion
WTI = West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light sweet crude
Source: Partnership calculations based on data from the Texas Railroad Commission and U.S. Energy
Information Administration
Cash flow has been devastated
22. 8.6
9.0
7.4
6.6
5.8
5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0
5.4 5.5 5.6
6.5
7.5
9.2
9.5.
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14* 15**
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration * as of December ** Projected
U.S. Crude Production, Million Barrels Per Day
Strong Production Growth
23. The energy industry has begun to cut back
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Baker Hughes
U.S. Rotary Rig Count, '14 - '15
621 Rigs
-31.2.%
25. And some think the rig count may be
halved before crude prices recover
26. • 30 - 40% less spent on exploration
• Price concessions (10 - 50%) from service companies
• Rig count will continue to fall
• One-third fewer wells drilled
• Wells drilled but not completed
• Difficulties servicing debt
• Divestitures and bankruptcies
• Significant layoffs in the oil patch
A nutshell, what the future holds
27. 140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
'08 '09 '10 '11' '12 '13 '14 '15
Jobs,000s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Employment, Oil & Gas Extraction
Layoffs haven’t appeared in the
employment data yet
32. Layoffs always start in the field
Soon move to the factory floor
Gradually impact workers in the corporate office
33. Layoffs always start in the field
Soon move to the factory floor
Gradually impact workers in the corporate office
Ultimately affect workers throughout the economy
41. 71.7
17.5
'82 - '86 10 - '14
Source: Houston Facts, ‘82 – ’87 and JLL Houston
Metro Office Construction – Million Sq. Ft.
Added to Market
16.2
61.1%
A few things different from the ’80s
42. 71.7
17.5
'82 - '86 '10 - '14
Source: Houston Facts, ‘82 – ’87 and JLL Houston
Metro Office Construction – Million Sq. Ft.
Added to Market Under Construction
16.2
33.761.1%
22.2%
A few things different from the ’80s
43. 187,575
-221,000
'82- '86 '10 - '14
Source: Houston Facts ’82 – ’87 and Texas Workforce Commission
Metro Home Construction and Employment
Housing Units Added Net Job Change
A few things different from the ’80s
44. 187,575 189,575
-221,000
485,000
'82- '86 '10 - '14
Source: Houston Facts ’82 – ’87 and Texas Workforce Commission
Metro Home Construction and Employment
Housing Units Added Net Job Change
A few things different from the ’80s
45. A few things different from the ’80s
Texas Constitution prohibited interstate banking prior to 1987.
46. • Largest in the ’80s
– Texas Commerce Bank
– First City National
– Allied Bank of Texas
– Mbank Houston
– Republic Bank Houston
• Largest Now
– JP Morgan Chase
– Wells Fargo
– Bank of America
– Compass Bank
– Amegy
A few things different from the ’80s
53. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
$Billions
Source: City of Houston Planning Department
CITY OF HOUSTON BUILDING PERMIT VALUE
12-Month Total
Residential Nonresidential Total
City of Houston Construction
54. • November ’14
– $2.4 billion
• May ’14
– $1.6 billion
• November ’13
– $600 million
• Total = $4.6 billion
County, City, ISD Construction Bond Elections
55. • Tim Relyea, Cushman & Wakefield
– three or four big developments
– hundreds of thousands of SF apiece
– definitely happen regardless of how oil behaves
• Why?
– Cost of capital more important than cost of oil
– Big firms realize most Houston product obsolete
– Three years to get a major project built
Local Office Construction
56. • Tim Relyea, Cushman & Wakefield
– three or four big developments
– hundreds of thousands of SF apiece
– definitely happen regardless of how oil behaves
• Why?
– Cost of capital more important than cost of oil
– Big firms realize most Houston product obsolete
– Three years to get a major project built
Local Office Construction
57. . . . budget adds more than $4 billion a year to build
more roads in Texas . . .
. . . ends diversions of state highway funds . . .
. . . dedicates half of the existing motor vehicle sales tax
to fund roads.
Governor Gregg Abbott’s Address to
the Greater Houston Partnership
58. Company Tons/Year Location Completion
ChevronPhillips 1,500 Baytown 2017
ExxonMobil 1,500 Baytown 2017
Dow 1,500 Freeport 2017
Sasol 1,500 Lake Charles 2018
Occidental 500 Ingleside 2017
Formosa Plastic 1,200 Point Comfort 2017
LyodellBasell 450
La Porte and
Channel View
2016
Major Ethylene Projects Under Construction
on the Gulf Coast
Source: Institute for Regional Forecasting
60. 2015 Employment Outlook
• ’15 Employment Outlook
– 62,900 jobs
– 2.2 percent increase
– 3.0+ million by Dec
61. 2015 Employment Outlook
• ’15 Employment Outlook
– 62,900 jobs
– 2.2 percent increase
– 3.0+ million by Dec
• Probably on the high side but to soon to revise
– 50,000 Jobs
• Jessie Thompson, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
– 40,000 – 50,000 jobs
• Bill Gilmer, Institute for Regional Forecasting
62. 2015 Employment Outlook
• ’15 Employment Outlook
– 62,900 jobs
– 2.2 percent increase
– 3.0+ million by Dec
• Probably on the high side but to soon to revise
• More current forecasts
– 50,000 Jobs
• Jessie Thompson, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
– 40,000 – 50,000 jobs
• Bill Gilmer, Institute for Regional Forecasting
63. • Slower Job growth
– Construction
– Nondurables Manufacturing
– Wholesale Trade
– Retail Trade
– Utilities
– Real Estate
– Finance
– Professional Services
– Administrative Services
– Educational Services
– Health Care
– Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
– Accommodations and Dining Services
– Personal Services
– Government
• Job losses
– Exploration and Production
– Oil Field Services
– Durables Manufacturing
2015 Employment Outlook