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Kees van der Geest "El reto social de las Migraciones Climáticas"
- 1. Simposio Migraciones Climáticas Sesión 4: El reto social Madrid, 22 November 2016 Dr Kees van der Geest United Nations University, Bonn Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
- 4. Quienes somos: UNU-EHS/EMSVA • Section: Environmental Migration, Social Vulnerability and Adaptation (EMSVA), established by Dr Koko Warner • Colleagues: Tamer Afifi, Christina Rademacher-Schultz, Robert Oakes, Cosmin Corendea • Focus : Relationship between environmental change & human mobility • Increasingly, the focus is on climate change • Pioneers in this field: • EACH-FOR (2007-2009): 23 case studies (Global) • Rainfalls (2010-2012): 8 case studies (Global) • PCCM (2013-2016): 3 case studies (Pacific region) • MECLEP (2014-2016): 6 case studies (Global) • And in the field of Loss and Damage (empirical research in 12 countries since 2012)
- 5. Advisory Committee Meeting, Bonn, Germany, 24-25 September, 2008
- 8. Complex problems require mixed method research and the knowledge and skills of different disciplines
- 9. EACH-FOR: Environmental Change & Forced Migration Scenarios (EU-FP6) Tajikistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Egypt Turkey Mozambique Vietnam Morocco Ghana Senegal Niger Dominican Republic, Haiti Mexico Ecuador Argentina Russia China Tuvalu Bangladesh Spain The Balkans Western Sahara Tajikistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Egypt Turkey Mozambique Vietnam Morocco Ghana Senegal Niger Dominican Republic, Haiti Mexico Ecuador Argentina Russia China Tuvalu Bangladesh Spain The Balkans Western Sahara
- 10. “Where the rain falls” - with CARE International
- 12. MECLEP: Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy
- 13. Changing questions: •EACH-FOR: • Exploratory question: Is there a relation between environmental change and human mobility? • “Where the rain falls”: • “Under which conditions do people use migration as a response to climate stressors?” • PCCM + MECCLEP • How to optimize migration outcomes?
- 16. Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors Migration improves HH resilience Migration used to survive, but not flourish Migration erosive coping strategy Migration not an option: trapped populations • Economy: poor • Adaptation options: access to livelihoods options &assets (social, economic, political), • Education: Children have 3-5 years more education than parents • Migrant: early 20s, single; temporal migration • Remittances: education, livelihood diversification, health • Economy: chronically food insecure, landless, Female -headed HH • Adaptation options: insufficient assets to adapt locally or through migration • Education: • Migrant: not feasible • Remittances: none. Abandoned / trapped populations • Economy: landless • Adaptation options: few adaptation options in situ, inability to diversify • Education: All HH members have low or no education / skill levels • Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season • Remittances: Partial success in obtaining food or money to buy food • Economy: land scarce • Adaptation options: less access to assets & institutions for support • Education: Children have same education level as parents • Migrant: HH Head, mid 40s, migration in hunger season • Remittances: Success in obtaining food or money to buy food Global results: 4 household profiles
- 17. Trapped populations: People who are not able to migrate from places in which they are vulnerable to environmental stressors because they lack the means to move or because there are no suitable migration destinations (Foresight, 2011).
- 18. Environmental hazards already impacting people
- 19. Environment already triggering migration
- 20. Different patterns of migration 2005-2015 Kiribati Tuvalu International Internal Trapped No movement Nauru
- 21. ¿Dónde se están produciendo las mayores migraciones climáticas? • En muchos sitios donde… • … Rain-fed agriculture • … Close to subsistence • … Low livelihood diversification • … Access to migration opportunities (if not: trapped) • En pocos sitios donde… • … Impactos de cambio climático ya han hecho lugares “no-habitables”
- 22. ¿A qué nos enfrentamos desde el punto de vista social en los países de origen? • Cambios y extremos climáticos son una realidad • Amenaza los fuentes de comida y ingresos y la seguridad de mucha gente, sobre todo los mas pobres • Muchas veces se puede adaptar un situ sin migrarse, pero a veces migración es la única opción y frecuentemente es una buena opción. • Tambien existen casos en que gente debería migrar pero no puede (trapped populations)
- 23. Continuum Forced Displacement Last resort Loss and damage Voluntary Migration Pro-active Adaptation • Enable adaptive migration which improves the situation of migrants and their families; Avoid forced migration that disrupts and leaves people worse’off. • Act in time! Pro-active migration versus distress migration • The power of language: Assisted migration versus Resettlement
- 24. Last thought When migration is a choice, people do not feel the losses as much as when they are forced to move. THANK YOU! Contact: geest@ehs.unu.edu