The Labor Market Situation in July report found that: - Private sector employment increased by 198,000 jobs and total nonfarm employment increased by 209,000 jobs in July, continuing strong growth over the past six months. - The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% in July from 6.1% in June, and the long-term unemployment rate remained steady at 2.0%. - Overall, the report indicated the labor market continued adding jobs at a healthy rate in July but more potential workers left the labor force than found employment.

1. The Labor Market Situation in July
Office of Economic Policy
August 4, 2014
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic Analysis

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Private sector employment up 198,000
Total nonfarm up 209,000, sixth consecutive month over 200,000
1-month change, in thousands
• July 2014 198
• June 2014 270
• May 2014 228
12-month change, in thousands
• July 2013 to 2014: 2,479
• Average: 207

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Sustained growth in 3 month moving average
This has been the highest
job growth in the first half
of a year since 1999.

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Employment growth by super-sector this month
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2% 1
2
3
7
7
8
8
11
17
21
22
27
28
47
-5.0 5.0 15.0 25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0
Utilities
Information
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
Financial Activities
Transportation and Warehousing
Mining and Logging*
Government
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction*
Retail Trade*
Manufacturing*
Professional and Business Services*
Over-the-month employment change,
July 2013, seasonally adjusted, in thousands
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,CurrentEmployment Statistics,bls.gov/ces
*denotes significance

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Unemployment rate ticked up
July 2014 6.2%
June 2014 6.1%
May 2014 6.3%
July 2013 7.3%

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Long-term unemployment rate steady,
remains double pre-recession average
July 2014: 2.0%
June 2014: 2.0%
May 2014: 2.2%
July 2013: 2.7%

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Employment rate was flat
July 2014: 59.0%
June 2014: 59.0%
May 2014: 58.9%
July 2013: 58.7%

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LFPR ticked up
July 2014: 62.9%
June 2014: 62.8%
May 2014: 62.8%
July 2013: 63.4%

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Ratio of broad to standard unemployment highest ever
Over-the-month Over-the-year
change change
• U1 — 0.0 ↓1.0pp
• U2 — 0.0 ↓0.7pp
• U3 ↑ 0.1 ↓1.1pp
• U4 ↑ 0.1 ↓1.3pp
• U5 ↑ 0.2 ↓1.1pp
• U6 ↑ 0.1 ↓1.7pp

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Other
Last month, all employment growth appeared to be part-time
This month, even growth
No changes in earnings
No change in hours

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Actual and predicted LFPR

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Evolving LFPR
U.S. LFPR generally rose from the early 1960s through 2000
– The increase was largely due to increasing participation by women
LFPR then fell quickly
– Part of the reduction was due to the Great Recession
– Part reflected predictable aging of the population
– Part is unexplained

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Decomposition of change in LFPR

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The role of population aging
Older workers have been participating at higher and higher rates
since the 1990s
– In terms of overall LFPR, this increase is not enough to counteract
the increase in older worker share
– Older workers still participate at a substantially lower rate than
younger workers
Aging has contributed to about half the observed LFPR reduction
since 2007
Predicted LFPR ranges from about 60 to 62 pp in 2024

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LFPR of 55+ year olds

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Alternative scenarios for the
participation rate

17. Thank you!

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Yet again, more jobseekers gave up looking than found work.

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Long-term unemployed are increasingly more likely to
leave the labor force than find employment