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Julien Le Nestour, Worldwide IT Innovation Manager, Schlumberger
1. How to reframe the ROI dilemma for Social
Media using Return On Attention (ROA)
Julien Le Nestour
@jnestour | coreedges.com
Social Media Innovation 2010 | London - June 10
12. Organizational Management
Consulting Consulting
IT “Innovation” M&A
13. Problem 1:
Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual
Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative
programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that
the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs
are as follows:
If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people
will be saved and 2/3 probability that no people will be saved.
Which of the two programs would you favor ?
15. Problem 2:
Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual
Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative
programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that
the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs
are as follows:
If Program C is adopted 400 people will die.
If Program D is adopted, there is 1/3 probability that nobody will
die, and 2/3 probability that 600 people will die.
Which of the two programs would you favor ?
17. Framing Effects: the Framing of Outcomes
Risk Risk
adverse seeking
72% A
Problem 1 Framed as
28% B 72% 28%
gains
22% C Framed as
Problem 2 22% 78%
78% D loss
A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, Science, 1981
18. Framing Effects: the Framing of Outcomes
Risk Risk
adverse seeking
72% A
Problem 1 Framed as
28% B 72% 28%
gains
22% C Framed as
Problem 2 22% 78%
78% D loss
“Choices involving gains are often risk averse and
choices involving losses are often risk taking.”
gains = current achievements
losses = current value potential not realized
➡ to change: make losses concrete
➡ status quo is very attractive
A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, Science, 1981
19. Agenda
1. Macro-Trend: Attention is the scarcest resource
2. Employees are optimizing their scarce resources
3. Understand ROA at individual level
4. Measure aggregated and weighted ROA at org. level
5. Take decisions based on ROA
6. In practice: video sharing and micro-messaging
7. ROA and the efficiency of social media
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
20. Macro-Trend: attention is the - increasingly - scarcest resource Attention
Measuring the forces of
long-term change
The 2009 Shift Index
Deloitte Center for the Edge
John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang
Davison
Measuring the forces of
long-term change
The 2009 Shift Index Core Research Team
Duleesha Kulasooriya Tamara Samoylova
Brent Dance Mark Astrinos
Deloitte Center for the Edge Dan Elbert
John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang Davison
Core Research Team
Duleesha Kulasooriya
Tamara Samoylova
Brent Dance
Mark Astrinos
Dan Elbert
Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
21. Exponential increase in fundamental ICTs - 1 Current situation
Attention
Exhibit 15: Computing Cost Performance (1992-2008)
1000
$222
$ per 1 MM transistors
100
10
1
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$0.27
0
Source: Leading technology research vendor
Even if there is a gap between silicon technology and
Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/ will have disproportionate
disproportionately made,
whatever comes next, Moore points out that it will “not
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm impact. Already today, we have seen two students from
be the end of the
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 world…You just make bigger chips.”9 coreedges.com
Stanford invent a search algorithm that forms the basis
licensing
22. Over time, the Shift Index will look for changes in storage’s would take you around the earth 2,200 times.”12
performance or cost curves, but we expect this metric to During this time, the compounding effects of technology situation
Exponential increase in fundamental ICTs - 3 Current
Attention
be highly persistent over time. As a recent industry report innovation, competitive pressures, market demand, and
Exhibit 16: Storage Cost Performance (1992-2008)
1000 $569
100
$ per Gigabyte (GB)
10 11
John
Diverse
Univers
2008),
collater
1
explodi
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12
Quot
Storage
0 ZDNet A
$0.13 zdnetas
Source: Leading technology research vendor specialr
800011
(created
2009 Shift Index Measuring the forces
Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
23. bandwidth cost/performance. Like computing, the bandwidth cost/performance curve
has persistently decreased over time. According to an
Exponential increase in fundamental ICTs - 2
Given the impossibility of devising a single metric that analysis done by a leading technology research vendor,14situation
Current
Attention
measures bandwidth across the Internet, the Shift Index the cost of 1,000 Mbps (megabits per second), which
measures bandwidth cost/performance in the data center refers to data transfer speed, dropped 10 times from over
fiber channel. $1,197 in 1999 to $130 in 2008.
Exhibit 17: Bandwidth Cost Performance (1999-2008)
10000
$1,197
1000
$ per 1,000 Mbps
100 $130
10
1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Leading technology research vendor
Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/ 14
F
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm ple
Me
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
25. Macro-Trend: attention is the - increasingly - scarcest resource Current situation
Attention
“As more and more videos, blogs,
papers, comments, articles,
advertisements, etc., clamor for our
interest, our attention comes to be
Measuring the forces of
long-term change increasingly scarce.”
The 2009 Shift Index
Deloitte Center for the Edge
John Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang Davison
Core Research Team
Duleesha Kulasooriya
Tamara Samoylova
Brent Dance
Mark Astrinos
Dan Elbert
Link: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/industries/Technology/center-for-edge-tech/shift-index-tech/
26d62345e0032210VgnVCM200000bb42f00aRCRD.htm
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
30. Agenda
1. Macro-Trend: Attention is the scarcest resource
2. Employees are optimizing their scarce resources
3. Understand ROA at individual level
4. Measure aggregated and weighted ROA at org. level
5. Take decisions based on ROA
6. In practice: video sharing and micro-messaging
7. ROA and the efficiency of social media
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
31. Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Actors
VS
Image: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Care_Bears.png / http://www.flickr.com/photos/stephen_dyrgas/2477528998/sizes/l/
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
32. Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Current situation
Actors
➡ actors are smart, rational, have their own goals
and make their own decisions
always have margin of action, no matter what
actors’ perception, self-perception and goals are
strongly shaped by organizational context: culture,
objectives, processes, norms, altruistic needs (feel
good), etc.
optimizing their return on attention is now a
priority
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
33. Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Current situation
Actors
➡ actors are smart, rational, have their own goals
and make their own decisions
➡ always have margin of action, no matter what
actors’ perception, self-perception and goals are
strongly shaped by organizational context: culture,
objectives, processes, norms, altruistic needs (feel
good), etc.
optimizing their return on attention is now a
priority
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
35. Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Current situation
Actors
➡ actors are smart, rational, have their own goals
and make their own decisions
➡ always have margin of action, no matter what
➡ actors’ perception, self-perception and goals are
strongly shaped by organizational context: culture,
objectives, processes, norms, altruistic needs (feel
good), etc.
➡ optimizing their return on attention is now a
priority
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
36. “The Physical Effect on the
Individual of the Idea of Death
suggested by the Collectivity.”
—Marcel Mauss (1926)
37.
38.
39.
40.
41. Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Current situation
Actors
➡ actors are smart, rational, have their own goals
and make their own decisions
➡ always have margin of action, no matter what
➡ actors’ perception, self-perception and goals are
strongly shaped by organizational context: culture,
objectives, processes, norms, altruistic needs (feel
good), etc.
➡ optimizing their return on attention is now a
priority
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
42. Employees are rational actors optimizing under constraints Current situation
Actors
Usage, adoption, value creation through IT tools and
social media simple:
If it increases the employees’ Return On Attention, it
is creating value at both individual and
organizational levels and will be used.
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
43. Agenda
1. Macro-Trend: Attention is the scarcest resource
2. Employees are optimizing their scarce resources
3. Understand ROA at individual level
4. Measure aggregated and weighted ROA at org. level
5. Take decisions based on ROA
6. In practice: video sharing and micro-messaging
7. ROA and the efficiency of social media
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
44. Defining ROA at an individual level ROA - Individual
➡ perceived return of 1 unit of time spent using one
application (as part of a defined workflow or not)
➡Return means: gains [information, power,
authority, altruistic gratification, etc.] minus cost
[reputation cost, time, opportunity cost, monetoray,
etc.]
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
45. Characteristics of ROA at individual level Current situation
ROA - Individual
➡ evaluated and estimated at the person level
➡ subjective [sometimes, just matter of tastes]
➡ situated for each unique organization, and even
each workflow
➡ as weak as weakest link in the chain
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
48. A predictive indicator Current situation
ROA - Individual
➡ ROA at individual level is a predictive indicator of
- selfish - value, hence of adoption, use and value at
organizational level
➡ Management use : aggregated and weighted ROA
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
50. Agenda
1. Macro-Trend: Attention is the scarcest resource
2. Employees are optimizing their scarce resources
3. Understand ROA at individual level
4. Measure aggregated and weighted ROA at org. level
5. Take decisions based on ROA
6. In practice: video sharing and micro-messaging
7. ROA and the efficiency of social media
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
51. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
➡ Indicator synthesizing all binary trade-offs
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
52. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
➡ Indicator synthesizing all binary trade-offs
ROA
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
53. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
Current situation
Application Properties
Usability, Training needs, RSS feeds or
other pull mechanisms, etc.
ROA
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
58. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
Current situation
Application Properties
Usability, Training needs, RSS feeds or
other pull mechanisms, etc.
ROA Increasing Returns Dynamics
Network and viral effects, increasing
returns to scale, marginal productivity
increasing, “connected consumption”, etc.
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
59. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
Current situation
Indicator synthesizing all binary trade-offs
Application Properties
Usability, Training needs, RSS feeds or
other pull mechanisms, etc.
ROA Increasing Returns Dynamics
Network and viral effects, increasing
returns to scale, marginal productivity
increasing, “connected consumption”, etc.
Alignment with Organizational
Context
Process, Culture, Objectives, Power
Relationships, etc.
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
60. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
Current situation
Weighted by % user population
X
ROA Subset of
Users within
Population
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
61. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
Current situation
Weighted by relative value for each position: factors for each class
X X $$$
ROA Subset of Relative Value
Users within per Position
Population
- deep one-off effort, but then punctual and light revisions
- segmentation stable for each org
- relative scale widely accepted by all stakeholders
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
62. Examples of criteria to define strategic value ROA - Organizational
Current situation
Criteria Definition
Applications or Activities are
Corporate Specificity
unique to company?
Transformational, Transactional,
Nature of Work
Tacit
Knowledge Manipulation /
Nature of Knowledge Work
Decision-Making
“Every knowledge worker in a modern
organization is an “executive” if, by virtue of his
position or knowledge, he is responsible for a
Drucker’s executive scale contribution that materially affects the capacity
of the organization to perform and to obtain
results.”
SOURCE: McKinsey Quarterly; The Effective Executive - Peter Drucker
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
63. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
Current situation
X X $$$ X !
ROA Subset of Relative Value Activity
Users within per Position frequency ,
Population weighted by
strategic
value
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
64. Aggregated and Weighted ROA at org. level ROA - Organizational
Current situation
X X $$$ X !
ROA Subset of Relative Value Activity
Users within per Position frequency ,
Population weighted by
strategic
value
Aggregated Impact on
and Weighted Existing
ROA Business KPIs
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
65. Agenda
1. Macro-Trend: Attention is the scarcest resource
2. Employees are optimizing their scarce resources
3. Understand ROA at individual level
4. Measure aggregated and weighted ROA at org. level
5. Take decisions based on ROA
6. In practice: video sharing and micro-messaging
7. ROA and the efficiency of social media
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
66. How to use the Aggregated and Weighted ROA? ROA - Decisions
➡ ROA is a predictive indicator of how Existing
Business KPIs will be impacted
➡ Should be used at 3 levels:
1. Portfolio management: which projects to invest
in?
2. Technology / Application choice within a project:
stop using features as main evaluation tool (blogs)!
3. Level of customization needed
➡ IT depts need to develop expertise in evaluating
ROA across large activity range
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
68. Agenda
1. Macro-Trend: Attention is the scarcest resource
2. Employees are optimizing their scarce resources
3. Understand ROA at individual level
4. Measure aggregated and weighted ROA at org. level
5. Take decisions based on ROA
6. In practice: video sharing and micro-messaging
7. ROA and the efficiency of social media
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
70. Weighted ROA: Micro-Messaging (internal Twitter clone) Examples
Activity: general team management
X X $$$ X !
ROA Subset of Relative Value Activity
Users within per Position frequency ,
Population weighted by
Important
strategic
Very Large
Weak- value
Neutral
Average -
or High! Weak
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing
71. Weighted ROA: Micro-Messaging (internal Twitter clone) Examples
Activité: DeepWater real-time team management
X X $$$ X !
ROA Subset of Relative Value Activity
Users within per Position frequency ,
Population weighted by
=
strategic
Very small High
value
Very High
Julien Le Nestour | June 10 coreedges.com licensing