Hangzhou Green Drinks HZGD#18-A Presentation Event 22Apr2013 Hangzhou's climate change politics, climate governance and green city making by Prof. Jørgen Delman from the University of Copenhagen

1. Hangzhou’s climate change politics, climate
governance and green city making
Hangzhou Green Drinks, Earth Day, 22.04.2013
Jørgen Delman, Professor
China Studies, Department for Cross-cultural and Regional Stiudies (ToRS)
University of Copenhagen

2.  GHG emissions and China’s environmental crisis
 China’s climate change politics
 Cities and climate change
 Hangzhou as a case – contextualising Hangzhou
 My propositions
 What Hangzhou does do to deal with climate change
 Hangzhou’s green city making
 Strenghts and possible weaknesses of Hangzhou’s approach
 (Speculative) conclusion
Aim here
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

3. Background – Factors affecting China’s GHG emissions
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

4. China’s ecological footprint > China’s biocapacity
WWF (2010 ). China Ecological Footprint Report.
Biocapacity, Cities and Development

5. Continued growth and China’s share in incremental energy
demand, imports and energy-related CO2 emissions: 2000-2010
and 2008-2035
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Vedvarende energi
Naturgas
BNP
Energi
El kapacitet
CO2 emission
Kul
Olie
A-kraft
1990-2010
2010-2035
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
CO2
emissions
El. capacity
Energy
GDP
Natural
gas
Renewable
energy
From Odgaard & Delman 2013. Kilder: Egne beregninger med data fra International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012,
og International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – Highligths 2012.

6. China needs energy, not least coal for future growth
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
© 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated
companies. All rights reserved.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/20/coal-
plants-world-resources-institute

7. Do we know the full extent of China’s climate
crisis?
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

8. Pollution levels much worse than government admits?
Guan, Dabo, Zhu Liu , Yong Geng, Sören Lindner, & Klaus Hubacek
Nature Climate Change, (2012) | doi:10.1038/nclimate1560.
?

9.  The cost of the ”China model”: Climate change is coming to
China with a vengeance
 Climate change is integrally linked with envionment and energy
security in the national discourse
 Cities are seens as key emitters of Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
 But also as primary actors in finding solutions …… Climate
change policies are being rolled out to city levels these years
China’s climate change politics
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
3600
CC
policies

10. New ”green” development ”buzzwords” in 12 FYP
 Sustainable development
 Circular economy
 Green transformation
 Green development
 Low carbon development
What China’s leadership says to deal with the environmental
challenge
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Towards a new development paradigm?

11. 11th FYP
Target
(2010)
11th FYP
Actual
result (2010)
12th FYP
Target
(2015)
Goal
2020
Share of non-fossil energy in primary
energy (hydro, new renewables,
nuclear)
10%
(for RE only)
8.3% 11.4% 15%
Energy consumption per GDP unit
(=energy intensity)
-20% -19.1% -16% -
CO2 emission per GDP unit
(=carbon intensity)
- - -17% -40% to -
45%
Share of non-fossil fuel sources (excl.
hydro power and nuclear) in total
electricity consumption
1% 1.2% - 3%
Forest coverage 20% 20.4% 21.7% 23%
Green tech’s contribution to GDP
(incl. biotechnology and IT)
- 5% 8% 15%
Selected climate change and RE targets in the Five Year
Plans and accompanying Long- and Medium Term Plans
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China StudiesTable 1 - Selected targets in the Five Year Plans and accompanying Long- and Medium Term Plans
Odgaard & Delman 2012
Note: By ‘energy consumption’ is meant gross energy consumption. The only exception is the 2020 target on 15% non-fossil energy, which is
defined according to final energy consumption. The share of non-fossil fuels in electricity consumption is only for large utilities with a capacity
above 5,000 MW – and this target is indicative, not binding. Sources: NDRC 2007; State Council 2011; APCO 2011; RED 2011; Hu 2009

12. Cities and climate change
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

13. Cities responsible for
70-80 %
of global GHG emissions
The conventional wisdom
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

14. Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
OECD 2009

15. Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
What do we measure?
Doodman, D. (2009).
Blaming cities for climate
change? An analysis of
urban greenhouse gas
enmissions inventories.
Environment and
Urbanization. 21-1 185-201

16. Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
WB 2012

17.  Measure city aggregates or average per capita?
 Many cities have lower per capita emissions than residents in
other places of that particular country
 Boundary problems
 Now, production rather than consumption based measurements,
e.g. aviation and shipping not included
 Polluting production easily shifted to other places (outside the
cities or to other countries)
 However: cities are effective units of implementation and host the
majority of the world population
Cities are problematic units to measure but
necessary for effective policy implementation
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

18. Hangzhou as a case – contextualising Hangzhou
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

19. Zhejiang in comparison
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
HSBC 2010

20. Hangzhou in comparative perspective - 1
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
HSBC 2010

21. Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Hangzhou in comparative perspective - 2
HSBC 2010

22. Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
HSBC 2010
23 of China’s top
500 companies
/Forbers

23. Predictions of CO2 emissions per household in 2026
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Zheng, Siqi et al. (2009)- The
Greenness of China : Household
Carbon Dioxide Emissions and
Urban Development. National
Bureau of Economic Research
Working Paper 15621

24. My propositions
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

25. Governance theory applied to China
 Government cannot do everything
 Governance seen as a response to the accelerated fragmenting of
the party-state system
 Neo-liberal approach to execution of government: small state, PPP,
outsourcing
 State, business, and society are not apart, mutually embedded
 New flexible and adaptive party-state approach - new mode of
government through governance innovations with new tools to
make the policy cycle more effective:
 Inclusion, participation of business and [civil] society
 Outsourcing
 Public-private partnerships
 Other hybrid regimes
Climate politics: new modes of government?
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

26. Proposition
 Climate change politics as a potential game changer
towards more inclusive and participatory
politics/governance innovations
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

27. http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?hl=da&newwindow=1&
tbo=d&rlz=1T4ADFA_daCN487CN487&biw=1600&bih=6
07&tbm=isch&tbnid=Hw0t6wy7pG2bMM:&imgrefurl=htt
p://www.ecofriend.com/shenzhen-s-sbf-tower-
bespeaks-green-lifestyle-and-
sustainablity.html&docid=y7yGg-
2by2ZqwM&imgurl=http://ecofriend.com/wp-
content/uploads/2012/07/sbf-tower-by-hans-hollein-
1_N89uf_18770.jpg&w=550&h=550&ei=jqW9UI_4KuX4
4QSfqYC4BQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=720&vpy=105&du
r=2123&hovh=224&hovw=224&tx=141&ty=134&sig=1
14113794870874226293&page=1&tbnh=129&tbnw=12
9&start=0&ndsp=30&ved=1t:429,r:5,s:0,i:97
A huge bundle of comprehensive policies…..
Eco-civilization
Low-carbon development
 Developing low-carbon urban planning, incorporating
economic structural changes
 Low-carbon policies for energy conservation and
renewable energy = low carbon energy mix
 Low carbon sector plans, programs, projects
 Stimulate R&D and innovation in low-carbon industries
 Low carbon consumption: Green lifestyle and green
management systems
 Establish GHG emission database, management, and
monitoring systems
 International experiences and collaboration
What Hangzhou does to deal with climate change
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
People’s Daily online 19.8.2010;
http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/
2010tz/t20100810_365264.htm
3600
CC
policies

28. Category 2005 2010 2015 2020
1
Reduction of CO2/GDP per unit
and district (t./10.000 CNY)*
--- ---- [－40%] [－50%]
2 Third sector share（%） 44.1 48.7 54 60
3
Energy use/GDP per unit and
district (t./10.000 CNY)*
0.87 0.68 0.55 －
4
Low carbon R&D cost as
percentage of total R&D cost (%)
2.5 4 5.5 7
5
Share of non-fossil fuel in total
primary energy consumption (%)
3.7
5.8
(2009)
10 15
6
Share of cars using new energy
or saving energy (%)
5 9 15 20
7
Share of existing buildings that
have undertaken energy savings
measures (%)
3 23 50 75
8
Share of built up area using
renewable energy in newly
constructed buildings (%)
5 19 40 60
9 Forest mass (10.000 m3) 4,000 4,224 4,650 5,000
10
Share of green areas in urban
built up areas (%)
37.31 40.0 42 45
11 Share of green travel (%) 26 31 35 40
12 Sorting of garbage (%) 0 18 50 80
Hangzhou - key low carbon development targets, 2005-2020
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

29. ‘Traditional’ implemenation mechanisms
 Authoritarian: top-down command-type approaches
 Fragmented: Competitive approaches between different vertical bureacratic
agencies (ministries in Beijing)
 Integrative mechanisms:
 Party in charge: CC leading group (headed by city party secretary)
 CC targets part of local leaders’ KPIs
Governance innovations
 New paradigmatic thinking?
 Involvement of third parties:
 Mobilization of and support to intermediaries
 Mobilize enterprises and business groups
 Community and citizen participation/involvement
 KPIs for climate change and social participation
Climate governance in Hangzhou
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

30.  Strong in competition for attention and resources:
 Hangzhou as a first mover in national competition: strong self-
assertiveness
 Harmonization of city brand: ”City of quality life!
 Governance approach to branding community
 But ”green” elements not fully integrated in city brand (maybe
wisely?)
Hangzhou’s green city making – game changing tool?
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies

31. Strengths
 Started early, considerable
experience
 Aligned with national policies
and approach
 Strong conceptual approach
 Strong self-assertiveness
 Party Secretary in charge
 Recognition of need for new
types of state-society
interaction
Strenghts and possible weaknesses of Hangzhou’s approach
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies
Possible weaknesses
 Policy overload
 Lack of recognition of the
importance of climate change
politics at local level; KPIs
not taken seriously
 Lack of sustained leadership
(tenure rush 赶任期)
 Selective policy
implementation
 Real willingnes to empower
businesses and societal
stakeholders?
 ”Green” brand unrealistic:
lack of public awareness

32.  Party-state’s response is constructive: New paradigmatic thinking?
 Climate politics as game changer?
 Climate governance: From environmental authoritarianism to more
”democratic” environmentalism (cf. Gilley 2012), i.e. pluralism (more voices
are heard, more actors involved)
(Speculative) conclusion
Department for Cross-Cultural and Regional Studies/China Studies