The document summarizes key findings from the OECD report "Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060". It finds that: - Global GDP is projected to increase 250% by 2060, nearly doubling global materials use, despite technological improvements. - This significant rise in materials use will exacerbate environmental pressures like greenhouse gas emissions and land/water use. - While recycling will grow faster than mining, it will still only account for a small portion of materials sourcing. - Urgent policy action is needed to accelerate the transition to more sustainable materials management and decouple resource use from economic growth to meet climate goals.

1. Global Material Resources
Outlook to 2060
Economic drivers and
environmental consequences

2. 2
OECD
Non-
OECD
Together projections about population and GDP per
capita growth will imply an increase of global GDP by
250% between 2017 and 2060
….but global growth slows downSource: Global Material Resources
Outlook to 2060 (OECD, 2019)

3. Technology change increases material productivity at sector level
&
Structural change shifts activity away from material intensive sectors
3
ServicesMaterial intensive sectors
Source: Global
Material Resources
Outlook to 2060
(OECD, 2019)

4. 4
Competing economic and technological forces lead to
near doubling of global materials use
(GDP)
Source: Global Material Resources
Outlook to 2060 (OECD, 2019)

5. 5
But growth in material use differs widely
across countries and
across material groups
Includes concrete
and construction
materials
Source: Global Material Resources
Outlook to 2060 (OECD, 2019)

6. 6
Recycling grows faster than mining…
… but remains a small share of the economy
Source: Global Material Resources
Outlook to 2060 (OECD, 2019)

7. 7
GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent
Transport
End users
Industry
Energy supply
Agriculture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2060
Materials
management
emissions
Other
emissionsTransport
Transport
End users
End users
Industry
Industry
Energy supply
Energy supply
Agriculture
Agriculture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011 2060
Materials
management
emissions
Other
emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions related to materials
management will more than double
12%of total GHG emissions
associated with 7 key metals
12%of total GHG
emissions associated with concrete
50Gt CO2 eq emissions
associated with materials cycle
Source: Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060 (OECD, 2019)

8. 8
Environmental impacts from extraction and processing
will more than double, hence a need for policy action!
Acidification
Climate change
Cum. energy
demand
Eutrophication
Freshwater aquatic
ecotoxicity
Human toxicity
Land use
Photochemical
oxidation
Terrestrial
ecotoxicity
Total environmental impacts (highest impact in 2060 normalised to 1)
Concrete Copper
Iron Other metalsUrgent policy
action is needed!
Source: Global
Material Resources
Outlook to 2060
(OECD, 2019)

9. • Despite structural and technological change, global materials use
will double between now and 2060, translating into a relative
decoupling.
• This exacerbates a wide range of environmental impacts, and
is on a collision course with meeting the objectives of the Paris
Climate Accord.
• While recycling becomes more competitive over time it is not
sufficient to shift the balance between primary and secondary
materials use.
• Some decoupling will happen but we need to accelerate the
transition, especially in the material-intensive industries.
• Greater coherence is needed between resource management and
climate policies, and other policies such as trade and innovation.
9
Conclusions and policy implications

10. Find the report, highlights and
explore the data at:
oe.cd/materials-outlook
Thank you for your attention!
For more information:
oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-
outlooks