1) The document analyzes survey data on supporters of the English Defence League (EDL) to understand who sympathizes with and joins the group, their core concerns, and drivers of support. 2) It finds that EDL sympathizers tend to be older, working class men who read tabloids and distrust institutions, with strong concerns about immigration and Islam. EDL members skew younger and have more racist views. 3) Logistic regression shows xenophobic hostility and anticipation of group conflict best predict EDL sympathy, while racism, pessimism, and support for violence best predict membership. 4) Support increased after the 2013 Woolwich attack, with more agreeing with EDL values though not methods

1. MEN OF VIOLENCE?
THE DRIVERS OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE ENGLISH DEFENCE
LEAGUE (EDL)
TERRORISM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE ASSN MEETING, LONDON, 2013
Matthew Goodwin (co-authors David Cutts and Laurence Janta-Lipinski)
@GoodwinMJ

2. Four questions.
1. Who sympathises with the EDL, and who joins?
2. What are their core concerns?
3. What are the most important drivers of EDL support?
4. Finally, what was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?

3. Data and Methods
• Survey based on random sample of 1,666 respondents from @YouGov online panel
• Weighted to profile of eligible UK voters on basis of internet access, age, gender,
social class, region, party ID and newspaper readership
• Any biases introduced by method extremely small and offset by larger sample size
• From these, we will examine 298 agree with EDL values: ‘EDL sympathisers’
• And we will explore 124 who have/would consider: ‘EDL members’
• Survey was undertaken October 21-22 2012 (during period of decline)
• We’ll use these data for two tasks:
1. To examine EDL sympathisers and members, compared to wider population
2. To conduct logistic regression analysis to identify the key predictors of public
support for the EDL

4. Social Profile – Who are they?
Age Breakdown
• Sympathy concentrated most heavily among citizens aged 45 and older
• Membership higher than average among 18-29 year olds
16
23
31
29
27
22
25 26
20
26 26
28
18-29 Yrs 30-44 Yrs 45-59 Yrs 60 Yrs +
EDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full Sample

5. Social Profile – Who are they?
Class Breakdown
• EDL support is spread relatively evenly across social classes
• Sympathy stronger than average among skilled manual workers (C2)
• Membership strongest among routine non-manual, semi-/unskilled workers
25
28
26
22
20
34
19
2728 29
21 22
Professional/managerial Routine non-manual Skilled manual Semi/unskilled manual
EDL Sympathizers EDL Members Full Sample

6. Social Profile – Who are they?
Working status
• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are unemployed
• Some evidence EDL members in more economically insecure positions
50
12
3
26
39
21
7
15
48
13
4
23
Work full-time Work part-time Unemployed Retired
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

7. Social Profile – Who are they?
Levels of Education
• Both groups of EDL supporters characterised by low education levels
• Only limited evidence that members are especially low educated
9
39
13
17 18
12
41
20
5
20
8
27
17 17
27
No Qualifications GCSE/Secondary level A-Level Other post-16 quals Degree/Postgraduate
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

8. Social Profile – Who are they?
Property Status
• Only a very small minority of EDL supporters are in social housing
• Little evidence to support popular assumptions concerning social housing
69
7
18
56
11
21
66
7
21
Own/mortgage Local authority rented Privately rented/other
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

9. Social Profile – Who are they?
Newspaper Readership
• Both groups of EDL supporters tend to rely on tabloid newspapers
• Worth noting these criticized for irresponsible coverage of Islam/migration
18
10
65
7
18
9
64
10
25
14
50
12
No paper Broadsheet Tabloid Other/local paper
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

10. Party Identification
Where is EDL support coming from politically?
• Large majorities of EDL supporters identify with mainstream parties
• Both sympathisers and members more likely to identify with centre-right
• No more likely than average to reject political parties
25
43
9
3
1
19
32
34
10
3
1
19
33
29
12
1 2
20
Labour Conservatives Lib Dems UKIP/BNP Other No party
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full sample

11. Trust in Institutions
% who say they ‘do not trust much’, or ‘at all’
• EDL supports broadly reflective of wider trend: high levels of distrust
• But consistently more distrustful (with exception of journalists)
• Members significantly more distrustful of police than average
75
79
85
69
85
46
71
77
85 86
75 78
51
7067
75
79
63
75
32
77
Parliament MP's Political
parties
Local
councillors
European
Union
Police Journalists
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

12. Attitudes toward the Political System
which statement comes closest to your view?
• Only small minority of EDL supporters think system is ‘completely broken’
• Sympathisers especially likely to see ‘serious faults within the system’
• But generally, these supporters do not appear to be giving up on system
8
65
23
2
9
58
17
9
6
58
28
2
Completely broken and
cannot be repaired
Serious faults, that
need to be addressed
Some faults, but not
that serious
Nothing wrong with
the system
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

13. Issue Priorities for EDL Supporters
What are the most important issues facing country (tick three)?
• Both groups of EDL supporters foremost concerned about immigration
• Economy 2nd most imp. issue, but they are less likely than average to cite this issue
• ‘Muslims in Britain’ distant third concern though members express strong concern
74 72
27 26
21
91
62
40
25 27
48
79
12 13
17
Immigration &
asylum
Economy Muslims in
Britain
Europe Crime
EDL Sympathisers EDL Member Full sample

14. Attitudes toward Islam, and Muslims
% agreeing with statements
• EDL supporters consistently more hostile than average toward Muslims and Islam
• Interestingly, sympathizers consistently more hostile than members
• Perceived threats from Muslims and Islam also strong among general population
76
80 80 80
82
68
64
70
73
62
49
57
52
49
51
ms not compatible with British lifeIslam a danger to Western civilisationGrowth of Muslims threatens survival of white BritishThere will be ‘clash of civilisations’ between Muslims and white BritonHigh Muslim birth rates threaten Bri
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

15. Attitudes toward Immigration, and Minorities
% agreeing with statements
• EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to express xenophobic views
• Significantly more likely than average to associate migrants with negative effects
• Further evidence that EDL support not single-issue in nature
46
79
46
67
71 69
46
69
48
70
65 66
30
66
24
44
42 40
Send immigrants
home now
Send illegal
immigrants back
to origin
Immigrants not
honest and
hardworking
Immigrants bad
for national
economy
Immigrant
undermine
cultural life
Britain not
benefitting from
diversity
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

16. Attitudes toward Violence, and Intergroup Conflict
% agreeing with statements
• All EDL supporters consistently more likely than average to expect group conflicts
• But it is members who are most likely to view violence as justifiable and necessary
• Members three times as likely as sympathisers and public to consider violence
72
37
29
5
65
45
42
15
46
21
15
5
Violence between different
ethnic and racial groups is
inevitable
Violence against extremists
is justified
Violence needed to protect
group from threats
Would engage in violence
to achieve goal
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

17. Attitudes toward Classical Racism Measures
% agreeing with statements
• Only a minority of EDL supporters endorse expressions of biological racism
• Yet EDL members significantly more likely than sympathisers & full sample to do so
• Points to a more openly racist inner core, surrounded by xenophobic circle of
sympathisers who mostly reject traditional, biological racism
23
20
33
31
13
11
Non-whites are not as British as whites There is a difference in intelligence of Black
and White
EDL Sympathisers EDL Members Full Sample

18. Drilling Down:
What are the most important drivers of EDL support?
• ‘Logistic regression analysis’ is a technique that allows us to identify the
most important predictors of EDL sympathy, and membership
• We use as much data as possible, through ‘principal components factor
analysis’ (PCF) to aggregate questions that reflect particular ‘clusters’ of
attitudes. There are four of these clusters:
o Classical racism (e.g. non-whites not British like whites)
o Xenophobic hostility (e.g. Immigrants are not honest and hardworking)
o Political dissatisfaction (e.g. distrust of parliament)
o Pessimism and pro-violence (e.g. violence is inevitable, justified and
necessary)
• We test for the impact of these attitudes (and also social characteristics)
on the likelihood that somebody will sympathise with the EDL, or consider
joining the movement

19. What are the most important drivers?
Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL sympathy
• Xenophobic hostility to minorities is the strongest predictor of EDL sympathy
• Sympathy also prominent among citizens who anticipate group conflicts in the future
and who perceive violence as legitimate/necessary action
• Voting for radical/extreme right parties also emerges a significant predictor of
whether someone will sympathise with the EDL
• It’s not just apathy: political dissatisfaction the least influential of four clusters

20. What are the most important drivers?
Predicted probabilities of significant predictors on EDL membership
• Regression analysis points to particular significance of poorly educated, tabloid-
reading men between 18-29 years old
• Whereas sympathisers heavily xenophobic, EDL membership predicted far more
strongly by classic racism, alongside pessimistic and pro-violent outlook. While
xenophobia remains significant, it is less central to explaining membership
• EDL has rallied a younger, harder and more racist core, but is surrounded by a wider
circle of xenophobic sympathisers. Both groups are extremely pessimistic about the
future of an increasingly diverse Britain

21. Lastly, What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?
How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?
77
9
1
13
84
6
1
9
Would never join Would consider joiningConsider myself a member Don't know
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)

22. What was the ‘Woolwich effect’ on EDL support?
Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to your
view?
N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)
3
21
47
29
3
22
52
23
Agree with EDL
values & methods
Agree with EDL
values but not
methods
Do not agree with
EDL values or
methods
Don't know
Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)

23. Thanks.
@GoodwinMJ
Full academic working paper at:
http://nottingham.academia.edu/MatthewGoodwin
Chatham House report based on data at:
http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/189767