The US rare coin market has grown significantly over the last two decades due to increased demand, liquidity, and the advent of independent coin certification and electronic trading networks. It is estimated to be a $2B+ annual market with over 4M collectors/investors and 20,000+ dealers. Studies have shown rare US coins to have strong historic returns, outperforming stocks from 1970-2000 by over 400%. Including rare coins in a diversified portfolio can reduce risk and provide inflation protection. Rare coins represent a highly liquid asset class with limited supply.
This newsletter provides a summary of market conditions and investment strategies. It discusses that a slowing global economy indicates a slowing commodity cycle. For Canadian investors with significant commodity exposure, this implies re-evaluating portfolio allocations to secular versus cyclical growth. It also notes implications of US estate taxes for Canadians owning US assets and recommends an ETF for higher bond yields.
The document discusses the recent performance of junior gold miners and predicts further declines. It notes that the GDXJ ETF tracking junior gold miners has reached new yearly lows and underperformed both gold and the broader stock market. The breakout of the US dollar index to new highs is seen as very bearish for gold and mining stocks. The document argues the extreme underperformance of miners relative to gold is a bearish signal and predicts "carnage" for miners if stocks and gold decline. Overall it takes a bearish view of junior miners and expects profits to increase for those shorting the sector.
The Canadian housing market and economy showed signs of recovery in October. Home sales and prices increased across most of Canada, with the national average home price rising 13.6% year-over-year. The strong housing market recovery has contributed to Canada being one of the first developed nations to emerge from recession. While exports may be dampened by a stronger Canadian dollar, private investment and consumer spending are expected to support continued economic growth. Overall, recent data indicates Canada is well-positioned for a sustained rebound from the economic downturn.
The document discusses several topics:
1) FX is a commodity, not an asset, as it does not provide utility to the holder independently of price changes. Commodities are used as inputs in production while currencies enable exchange.
2) There are strong correlations between various markets such as the US dollar index, DJIA, gold, oil, and commodities indexes. Weakness in the dollar tends to correlate with strength in commodities and stocks.
3) To generate returns or "alpha" in FX, one should take a trading approach like a produce seller, aiming for frequent small profits rather than trying to predict long-term price movements.
4) Quantitative easing policies have added
The document provides an overview of Northland Wealth Management's quarterly newsletter. It discusses Northland's recognition and awards for excellence in private banking and wealth management. It also summarizes several articles in the newsletter, including features on the history of the Canadian dollar, strategies for avoiding poor market performance, and an analysis of the Michael J. Fox Foundation and its efficient approach to Parkinson's disease research.
The markets had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their largest gains since December. Unemployment claims matched a four-year low and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low to support the economy. Meanwhile, Mongolia has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies due to its natural resources, but faces challenges in converting this wealth into long-term educational gains like more developed countries.
What once was, won't be, and may soon cycle back. Rather than trying to chase returns, develop a diversification strategy that includes the main sources of return and let all those cycles compete within your portfolio; and also rebalance.
The S&P 500 has risen 12.6% since early October due to a lack of bad news. Three pieces of news that could be considered lacking in bad news are: 1) 75% of companies reporting earnings so far this quarter have beaten estimates. 2) Economic news has generally supported the idea that the economy is not collapsing. 3) European leaders may finally take action to address the sovereign debt crisis. Whether this lack of bad news continues remains uncertain.
This newsletter provides a summary of market conditions and investment strategies. It discusses that a slowing global economy indicates a slowing commodity cycle. For Canadian investors with significant commodity exposure, this implies re-evaluating portfolio allocations to secular versus cyclical growth. It also notes implications of US estate taxes for Canadians owning US assets and recommends an ETF for higher bond yields.
The document discusses the recent performance of junior gold miners and predicts further declines. It notes that the GDXJ ETF tracking junior gold miners has reached new yearly lows and underperformed both gold and the broader stock market. The breakout of the US dollar index to new highs is seen as very bearish for gold and mining stocks. The document argues the extreme underperformance of miners relative to gold is a bearish signal and predicts "carnage" for miners if stocks and gold decline. Overall it takes a bearish view of junior miners and expects profits to increase for those shorting the sector.
The Canadian housing market and economy showed signs of recovery in October. Home sales and prices increased across most of Canada, with the national average home price rising 13.6% year-over-year. The strong housing market recovery has contributed to Canada being one of the first developed nations to emerge from recession. While exports may be dampened by a stronger Canadian dollar, private investment and consumer spending are expected to support continued economic growth. Overall, recent data indicates Canada is well-positioned for a sustained rebound from the economic downturn.
The document discusses several topics:
1) FX is a commodity, not an asset, as it does not provide utility to the holder independently of price changes. Commodities are used as inputs in production while currencies enable exchange.
2) There are strong correlations between various markets such as the US dollar index, DJIA, gold, oil, and commodities indexes. Weakness in the dollar tends to correlate with strength in commodities and stocks.
3) To generate returns or "alpha" in FX, one should take a trading approach like a produce seller, aiming for frequent small profits rather than trying to predict long-term price movements.
4) Quantitative easing policies have added
The document provides an overview of Northland Wealth Management's quarterly newsletter. It discusses Northland's recognition and awards for excellence in private banking and wealth management. It also summarizes several articles in the newsletter, including features on the history of the Canadian dollar, strategies for avoiding poor market performance, and an analysis of the Michael J. Fox Foundation and its efficient approach to Parkinson's disease research.
The markets had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their largest gains since December. Unemployment claims matched a four-year low and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low to support the economy. Meanwhile, Mongolia has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies due to its natural resources, but faces challenges in converting this wealth into long-term educational gains like more developed countries.
What once was, won't be, and may soon cycle back. Rather than trying to chase returns, develop a diversification strategy that includes the main sources of return and let all those cycles compete within your portfolio; and also rebalance.
The S&P 500 has risen 12.6% since early October due to a lack of bad news. Three pieces of news that could be considered lacking in bad news are: 1) 75% of companies reporting earnings so far this quarter have beaten estimates. 2) Economic news has generally supported the idea that the economy is not collapsing. 3) European leaders may finally take action to address the sovereign debt crisis. Whether this lack of bad news continues remains uncertain.
- Gold prices have risen above major support at $1682/71 but are expected to face resistance at $1800/1834.
- A break below $1671 would signal an important change to a longer-term downward trend for gold prices.
- In the short-term, gold prices are dropping as the US dollar bounces amid cautious market sentiment ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium later this week.
The document discusses recent volatility in asset prices in 2015 and provides an analysis of various asset performance over the past 15+ years from 1999 to early 2015. Some key points:
- Precious metals like gold and silver have significantly outperformed stocks and currencies over this time period. Gold is the top performing asset.
- The US dollar lost over 75% of its value against gold in this time, while stocks like the Dow lost over 60% of their value against gold.
- Volatility has increased in 2015 beyond expectations. The author recommends owning physical gold and silver as a hedge against volatility in paper assets and currencies.
- A strike at US oil refineries may further increase oil price volatility in
Why Gold is a Safe Haven as Coronavirus Spreads, Oil Crashes.VijayMistry29
The price of gold has been the only asset not in a total freefall of late as a result of the coronavirus, with investors still backing its status as a safe haven and store of value. After hitting a 7-year high of $1,700 prior to the escalation of the pandemic last week, gold is still staying strong near the $1,600 level.
Since late 2018, more and more investors have been flocking to the precious metal as protection from increasing levels of economic volatility. Fears of a recession have been steadily increasing as more and more warning signs become apparent, and that was before the chaos that has recently ensued as a result of the global COVID-19 epidemic.
Invest here : https://regalassets.com/a/14964
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
This document provides a market commentary and overview of key steps to financial success. It discusses that asset allocation, investment selection, and rebalancing are important for financial success. It also notes that diversification is important because leaders in different asset classes rotate over time. While diversification struggled in 2014, diversification remains important because different asset classes outperform in different years.
- Gold prices rose above $1770 boosted by a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields. XAU/USD turned positive for the week after rebounding $100 from Monday's low.
- The US dollar fell against other majors after a sharp decline in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. Treasury yields also dropped on weaker economic data.
- Gold is poised to extend its recovery as the dollar remains weak and yields are low. Key resistance levels are at $1760 and $1795, while support is seen around $1750.
- The document summarizes market performance in September 2012, noting that while historically the worst month, September saw gains in major indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.
- It discusses factors like quantitative easing that helped markets, as well as weakness in commodities, transportation, and concerns from Europe.
- Looking ahead, it notes debates and upcoming employment reports as events to watch, and that historically October can provide gains after volatility.
- Brexit has increased uncertainty and volatility in global markets, affecting real estate. However, real estate offers stable income which is increasingly sought after, especially with low/negative bond yields.
- Opportunities exist for investors with strong currencies like USD, who can acquire UK real estate at cheaper prices. Demand will focus on markets with strong fundamentals like London.
- Yields on safe-haven real estate are compelling compared to low bond yields in countries like Japan. Sterling-denominated UK property yields look attractive to non-UK investors. Performance will be driven by locations with steady demand, transparency, and long-term growth.
The document discusses the relationship between the US Dollar Index (USDX) and gold prices. It notes that a short-term decline in the USDX is likely, which could help boost gold prices in the short run. However, the long-term breakout in the USDX remains intact and its strength typically pressures gold prices. While gold may see a short-term rally, the USDX is well-positioned to continue leading its pack and potentially send gold prices lower in the medium term as its strength persists.
The document summarizes trends in the US apartment market in 2009. It finds that the market diverged into two camps based on long-term investment value versus short-term transactional value. Fundamentals remained solid, but debt markets were challenging and investors were cautious. It predicts that multi-family capital markets will remain difficult in 2009 with low transaction volumes and rising cap rates, especially for lower quality properties.
- The document provides a monthly market commentary and analysis from MacDougall, MacDougall & Mactier Inc. for November 2009.
- It summarizes recent global economic data and outlooks from organizations like the Bank of Canada, noting signs of recovery but remaining skepticism.
- It reviews stock market and economic performance in Canada and other regions over the past month and year.
- The analysis expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook on the potential for further economic and market gains going forward based on factors like low interest rates and improving consumer sentiment.
The Asset Allocation Advisor - October 2015Eric J. Weigel
The document provides an outline and overview for research on asset allocation decisions to help investors. It discusses research goals of assessing asset class performance, views, and implications for multi-asset class portfolios. It examines prospective returns and risks of various asset classes over intermediate and long-term time horizons. Charts and analyses provide perspectives on factors like valuations, income, and sentiment that influence expected returns across equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities and cash.
The document summarizes market volatility in 2011 and discusses the Chinese government's crackdown on freedom of speech through restrictions on social media. Specifically:
- The stock market has seen high volatility in 2011, with the VIX hitting a record high and large intraday swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- Investors have been frustrated by the lack of direction in uncertain markets affected by European debt problems and US budget issues.
- China limits freedom of speech to control social unrest, recently requiring real name registration and verification for users of the popular Weibo social media platform.
- The government fears social media could enable mass organization that leads to instability, as seen in the Arab Spring, given China's
The document provides a summary of forecasts for the S&P 500 index in 2013 from various analysts and investment firms. It shows that none of the analysts accurately predicted the performance of the S&P 500, with their forecasts being off by an average of 20%. The document also includes quotes from Warren Buffett emphasizing that stock forecasting has little value and that one cannot predict movements in the stock market with accuracy.
1) The document discusses the sub-prime mortgage crisis, its causes, and its global impacts. Low interest rates and rising home prices led to risky sub-prime lending in the US.
2) As borrowers defaulted, major financial firms suffered huge losses on mortgage-backed securities, spreading the crisis globally. Billions were lost by banks in Germany, Asia, and elsewhere.
3) While Asia saw some stock market volatility, the impacts were limited due to most Asian banks being locally focused and conservative in their lending and investments. China's economic strength also helped decouple Asia from the crisis spreading from the US.
The document compares and analyzes the similarities and differences between the 1980s savings and loan crisis and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. It provides background on what triggered each crisis, statistics on their costs and impacts, timelines of key events, comparisons of the underlying causes, and summaries of the government actions taken in response to each crisis.
Pacific Asset Management is sub-advisor to the AdvisorShares Pacific Asset Enhanced Floating Rate ETF (FLRT)*
2014 has seen the consensus of higher Treasury yields and economic activity fail to materialize. Lower rates and risk premiums have led to strong returns year-to-date. In this commentary, Portfolio Managers David Weismiller, Michael Marzouk, and Bob Boyd discuss the current market environment, outlook, and portfolio positioning.
*Effective but not available for sale at this time. Go to www.advisorshares.com for more information.
1) The global stock markets had a difficult year in 2011 with significant volatility and uncertainty driven by slowing economic growth and debt problems in Europe and the US.
2) Bond markets significantly outperformed stock markets as investors sought the perceived safety of bonds.
3) Commodity prices were also volatile, with gold and oil gaining for the year but base metals declining on slowing global demand.
This document summarizes key information from a report on U.S. estate tax implications for Canadian clients, including:
- The U.S. presidential candidates have proposed different changes to the U.S. estate tax regime that could impact Canadians subject to it.
- Canadians with over US$60,000 in U.S. assets may need to file a U.S. estate tax return upon death, and could owe tax on the value of those assets depending on their worldwide wealth and credits available.
- The report provides two scenarios to illustrate potential U.S. estate tax implications for a hypothetical Canadian resident based on different levels of total worldwide wealth including U.S. assets.
1) Greece passed austerity measures to receive EU aid and avoid default, relieving investors and sending markets soaring last week.
2) Positive manufacturing and earnings reports from companies like Nike also contributed to the market gains.
3) Sentiment can change quickly in financial markets, as the market had fallen for seven of the previous eight weeks but then surged last week.
Growing and preserving wealth for generations requires a long-term perspective and disciplined process. In 2012, markets remained volatile due to ongoing challenges in Europe and moderate economic growth. However, stock valuations are reasonable and corporate profits remain strong. Looking ahead, following a prudent process focused on risk management and capital preservation should serve investors well, even if surprises emerge.
- Gold prices have risen above major support at $1682/71 but are expected to face resistance at $1800/1834.
- A break below $1671 would signal an important change to a longer-term downward trend for gold prices.
- In the short-term, gold prices are dropping as the US dollar bounces amid cautious market sentiment ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium later this week.
The document discusses recent volatility in asset prices in 2015 and provides an analysis of various asset performance over the past 15+ years from 1999 to early 2015. Some key points:
- Precious metals like gold and silver have significantly outperformed stocks and currencies over this time period. Gold is the top performing asset.
- The US dollar lost over 75% of its value against gold in this time, while stocks like the Dow lost over 60% of their value against gold.
- Volatility has increased in 2015 beyond expectations. The author recommends owning physical gold and silver as a hedge against volatility in paper assets and currencies.
- A strike at US oil refineries may further increase oil price volatility in
Why Gold is a Safe Haven as Coronavirus Spreads, Oil Crashes.VijayMistry29
The price of gold has been the only asset not in a total freefall of late as a result of the coronavirus, with investors still backing its status as a safe haven and store of value. After hitting a 7-year high of $1,700 prior to the escalation of the pandemic last week, gold is still staying strong near the $1,600 level.
Since late 2018, more and more investors have been flocking to the precious metal as protection from increasing levels of economic volatility. Fears of a recession have been steadily increasing as more and more warning signs become apparent, and that was before the chaos that has recently ensued as a result of the global COVID-19 epidemic.
Invest here : https://regalassets.com/a/14964
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
This document provides a market commentary and overview of key steps to financial success. It discusses that asset allocation, investment selection, and rebalancing are important for financial success. It also notes that diversification is important because leaders in different asset classes rotate over time. While diversification struggled in 2014, diversification remains important because different asset classes outperform in different years.
- Gold prices rose above $1770 boosted by a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields. XAU/USD turned positive for the week after rebounding $100 from Monday's low.
- The US dollar fell against other majors after a sharp decline in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. Treasury yields also dropped on weaker economic data.
- Gold is poised to extend its recovery as the dollar remains weak and yields are low. Key resistance levels are at $1760 and $1795, while support is seen around $1750.
- The document summarizes market performance in September 2012, noting that while historically the worst month, September saw gains in major indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.
- It discusses factors like quantitative easing that helped markets, as well as weakness in commodities, transportation, and concerns from Europe.
- Looking ahead, it notes debates and upcoming employment reports as events to watch, and that historically October can provide gains after volatility.
- Brexit has increased uncertainty and volatility in global markets, affecting real estate. However, real estate offers stable income which is increasingly sought after, especially with low/negative bond yields.
- Opportunities exist for investors with strong currencies like USD, who can acquire UK real estate at cheaper prices. Demand will focus on markets with strong fundamentals like London.
- Yields on safe-haven real estate are compelling compared to low bond yields in countries like Japan. Sterling-denominated UK property yields look attractive to non-UK investors. Performance will be driven by locations with steady demand, transparency, and long-term growth.
The document discusses the relationship between the US Dollar Index (USDX) and gold prices. It notes that a short-term decline in the USDX is likely, which could help boost gold prices in the short run. However, the long-term breakout in the USDX remains intact and its strength typically pressures gold prices. While gold may see a short-term rally, the USDX is well-positioned to continue leading its pack and potentially send gold prices lower in the medium term as its strength persists.
The document summarizes trends in the US apartment market in 2009. It finds that the market diverged into two camps based on long-term investment value versus short-term transactional value. Fundamentals remained solid, but debt markets were challenging and investors were cautious. It predicts that multi-family capital markets will remain difficult in 2009 with low transaction volumes and rising cap rates, especially for lower quality properties.
- The document provides a monthly market commentary and analysis from MacDougall, MacDougall & Mactier Inc. for November 2009.
- It summarizes recent global economic data and outlooks from organizations like the Bank of Canada, noting signs of recovery but remaining skepticism.
- It reviews stock market and economic performance in Canada and other regions over the past month and year.
- The analysis expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook on the potential for further economic and market gains going forward based on factors like low interest rates and improving consumer sentiment.
The Asset Allocation Advisor - October 2015Eric J. Weigel
The document provides an outline and overview for research on asset allocation decisions to help investors. It discusses research goals of assessing asset class performance, views, and implications for multi-asset class portfolios. It examines prospective returns and risks of various asset classes over intermediate and long-term time horizons. Charts and analyses provide perspectives on factors like valuations, income, and sentiment that influence expected returns across equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities and cash.
The document summarizes market volatility in 2011 and discusses the Chinese government's crackdown on freedom of speech through restrictions on social media. Specifically:
- The stock market has seen high volatility in 2011, with the VIX hitting a record high and large intraday swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- Investors have been frustrated by the lack of direction in uncertain markets affected by European debt problems and US budget issues.
- China limits freedom of speech to control social unrest, recently requiring real name registration and verification for users of the popular Weibo social media platform.
- The government fears social media could enable mass organization that leads to instability, as seen in the Arab Spring, given China's
The document provides a summary of forecasts for the S&P 500 index in 2013 from various analysts and investment firms. It shows that none of the analysts accurately predicted the performance of the S&P 500, with their forecasts being off by an average of 20%. The document also includes quotes from Warren Buffett emphasizing that stock forecasting has little value and that one cannot predict movements in the stock market with accuracy.
1) The document discusses the sub-prime mortgage crisis, its causes, and its global impacts. Low interest rates and rising home prices led to risky sub-prime lending in the US.
2) As borrowers defaulted, major financial firms suffered huge losses on mortgage-backed securities, spreading the crisis globally. Billions were lost by banks in Germany, Asia, and elsewhere.
3) While Asia saw some stock market volatility, the impacts were limited due to most Asian banks being locally focused and conservative in their lending and investments. China's economic strength also helped decouple Asia from the crisis spreading from the US.
The document compares and analyzes the similarities and differences between the 1980s savings and loan crisis and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. It provides background on what triggered each crisis, statistics on their costs and impacts, timelines of key events, comparisons of the underlying causes, and summaries of the government actions taken in response to each crisis.
Pacific Asset Management is sub-advisor to the AdvisorShares Pacific Asset Enhanced Floating Rate ETF (FLRT)*
2014 has seen the consensus of higher Treasury yields and economic activity fail to materialize. Lower rates and risk premiums have led to strong returns year-to-date. In this commentary, Portfolio Managers David Weismiller, Michael Marzouk, and Bob Boyd discuss the current market environment, outlook, and portfolio positioning.
*Effective but not available for sale at this time. Go to www.advisorshares.com for more information.
1) The global stock markets had a difficult year in 2011 with significant volatility and uncertainty driven by slowing economic growth and debt problems in Europe and the US.
2) Bond markets significantly outperformed stock markets as investors sought the perceived safety of bonds.
3) Commodity prices were also volatile, with gold and oil gaining for the year but base metals declining on slowing global demand.
This document summarizes key information from a report on U.S. estate tax implications for Canadian clients, including:
- The U.S. presidential candidates have proposed different changes to the U.S. estate tax regime that could impact Canadians subject to it.
- Canadians with over US$60,000 in U.S. assets may need to file a U.S. estate tax return upon death, and could owe tax on the value of those assets depending on their worldwide wealth and credits available.
- The report provides two scenarios to illustrate potential U.S. estate tax implications for a hypothetical Canadian resident based on different levels of total worldwide wealth including U.S. assets.
1) Greece passed austerity measures to receive EU aid and avoid default, relieving investors and sending markets soaring last week.
2) Positive manufacturing and earnings reports from companies like Nike also contributed to the market gains.
3) Sentiment can change quickly in financial markets, as the market had fallen for seven of the previous eight weeks but then surged last week.
Growing and preserving wealth for generations requires a long-term perspective and disciplined process. In 2012, markets remained volatile due to ongoing challenges in Europe and moderate economic growth. However, stock valuations are reasonable and corporate profits remain strong. Looking ahead, following a prudent process focused on risk management and capital preservation should serve investors well, even if surprises emerge.
The Federal Reserve announced "Operation Twist" to lower longer-term interest rates by selling short-term Treasuries and buying long-term ones. While interest rates declined as intended, stocks fell over 6% due to fears of a Greek default, global financial crisis, slowing growth in China, and declining copper prices indicating weaker global growth. Dividends have provided over a third of the S&P 500's total return over 80 years and can enhance returns and provide stability, especially in a low interest rate environment.
The stock market ended 2011 right where it started despite significant volatility. The S&P 500 opened and closed at 1,257.6 but saw daily swings totaling over 3,000 points. Key events in 2011 included the European debt crisis, falling interest rates, political upheaval in the Middle East, Apple's rise led by Steve Jobs, and natural disasters like the Japanese earthquake. Foreign markets declined more sharply than the flat U.S. market. Gold rose while commodities fell on the year.
- Gold has experienced strong performance in some decades but lower returns in other periods, especially when US investors could not directly own gold in the 1970s.
- Over the long run from 1971-2011, gold has not outperformed major stock indices and produced lower average returns than US small cap stocks.
- Gold does not reliably hedge against inflation and its price volatility is higher than inflation measures.
- While gold may provide diversification benefits when held in small amounts as part of a broader commodity strategy, it does not generate income or cash flows like stocks and is a speculative asset.
Donde y en que Invertir -Ricardo V Lago -Presentacion a la Gerencia de Inter...neiracar
This document discusses where to invest money given current economic perspectives. It recommends the following portfolio: 33% in emerging market funds, 33% in technology stock funds, 17% in gold funds, and 16% in short-term US bond funds. It argues that stocks are currently undervalued due to currency fluctuations and are poised for growth as the global economy recovers. The Peruvian economy is also discussed, noting its strong fundamentals that have allowed it to avoid recession so far.
The document discusses recent economic and market trends. It notes that the current US economic expansion is the third longest on record. While corporate profits are flat and consumer confidence varies, indicators like small business hiring plans and the leading economic index remain positive. Real estate investment and pricing outlooks are mixed, with continued home price growth expected but less foreign buying pressure. Pension funds are increasing their real estate allocations as other asset classes underperform. Low inflation and interest rates globally are prompting further monetary stimulus. Commodity price declines are hurting resource-dependent economies.
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
The document summarizes the reaction of markets to a recent agreement by European leaders to address the sovereign debt crisis. It notes that stock prices rose significantly as investors were relieved by the three-point deal involving Greek debt relief and boosting the bailout fund. However, details remain unclear and challenges loom with the U.S. debt panel deadline approaching. Overall investors were in a relief rally but surprises can still occur as with sudden market moves or unexpected weather, much like the forecasting abilities of analysts and meteorologists.
The document provides a weekly market commentary for February 27, 2012. It notes that the markets have been calm recently as fears have declined. The S&P 500 reached its highest level in over 3.5 years and volatility is low. However, it warns of potential risks on the horizon from rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in oil producing regions that could cause a market correction. The commentary emphasizes that investors should focus on long term trends rather than short term fluctuations.
This article discusses trends in foreign holdings of U.S. currency. The main topic is why foreigners hold U.S. dollars abroad. The key ideas are that the dollar is seen as a stable store of value during political and economic uncertainty in other countries. Recent studies estimate that 50-70% of U.S. currency is held overseas. The conclusion is that large foreign holdings of dollars have implications for monetary policy in the U.S., such as making narrow money supply measures less reliable indicators of domestic economic activity.
The Equity Observer - Weekly Insights December 9, 2018Eric J. Weigel
- Equity markets declined significantly last week, with US small caps taking the biggest losses. Year-to-date, US large caps are barely positive while small caps are down 4.6%.
- Risk aversion has increased as volatility has risen from last year's lows. Yield spreads continue to widen, indicating concern in the markets.
- All major global markets declined last week, with Germany suffering the largest losses. REITs were one of the only bright spots, up over 6% year-to-date.
- The decline has caused over half of stocks in the analyst's universe to now be in a down trend phase. Models favor reducing risk exposure through positive allocations to cash and
This document provides an overview of All Star Financial, an independent fee-only financial advisory firm. It discusses the firm's services, investment philosophy, and approach to managing client portfolios. Key points include:
1. All Star Financial provides personal and corporate financial planning, investment management, and tax services. They manage client assets using mutual funds, ETFs, stocks, and bonds.
2. The firm's investment approach focuses on reducing risk and volatility through strategic asset allocation and diversification. They emphasize keeping what you earn over maximizing returns.
3. Examples from past economic cycles and market downturns illustrate why diversification and staying the course are important strategies during volatile periods. Panicking and making
A journey through American and Japanese capital Market.
This presentation can be used a study material for international Financial Management for MBA/PGDM.
This document provides an overview and agenda for a presentation on the American and Japanese capital markets. It includes sections on trends in global capital markets, the structure and indexes of the US and Japanese stock markets, and a comparison of the two markets. The US section discusses the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 as major US indexes. The Japanese section outlines the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX as primary Japanese indexes.
The document discusses the potential for a housing bubble in the US and its implications for gold prices. It notes that home prices have risen sharply in recent years according to the S&P Case-Shiller index, though some of the increase can be explained by low interest rates and stimulus programs. While bubble-like conditions exist in some local markets, nationwide there are currently no signs of a bubble as home price increases have not diverged significantly from GDP growth. However, the widespread rise in asset prices across multiple classes suggests markets have abundant liquidity, which could support further gold price gains if inflation increases more than expected.
The document discusses various measures of investor sentiment in financial markets, including volume and liquidity. It notes that high trading volume confirms trends in prices and that divergences between rising prices and falling volume can signal a trend reversal. The document also examines factors that influence money flows into stock markets, such as economic growth, listings and float of new companies.
The US dollar may be bottoming based on several factors:
1) Valuation measures like the Big Mac Index and OECD measures imply the dollar is undervalued by 30-35%
2) Increases in US oil and gas production from shale could reduce US imports and improve the trade balance by a third
3) A turnaround in US economic confidence and growth could support a rise in the dollar through upward revisions to interest rate expectations
2. Advising the Very Affluent - Beyond Equities Basics for the Financial Planning Professional and High Net Worth Investors
3. Rare US Coins: Background The US rare coin market has a long history of growth and stability. In the last two decades the advent of independent coin certification and electronic trading networks has led to increased demand and liquidity.
4. Rare US Coins: Background Annual Revenue: $2B+ and increasing Collector/Investor Base: Estimated 4M - 7M by American Numismatic Association (ANA) Dealers: approximately 20,000+ dealers in the US and Canada Supply: 16M+ coins certified for grade and authenticity Market Value: $20B+ certified coins, $40B including non-certified coins Certification: Two major independent services - Professional Coin Grading Services (PCGS) (NASDAQ: CLCT) and Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC). In addition there are a total of 11 secondary services. Data Base: U.S. rare coins have the largest available data base for pricing, mintage and certification of any collectible. Electronic Trading Networks: Two major independents - Certified Coin Exchange (CCE) and Certified CoinNet (CCN) Dealer Bids: On an average day, CCE has $708M in open dealer bids As of January 2008
5. Rare US Coins: Background Strong Historic Returns –According to independent studies, in 1970 had you invested in DJIA stocks and rare coins, your rare coins’ return would have exceeded the Dow by more than 400%. Reduced Risk Plus Inflation Protection - Including certified rare US coins in a well-diversified investment portfolio has been demonstrated to both reduce risk and provide a degree of protection against inflation. Limited Supply - It is generally accepted that 95% of original mintages were lost due to melting or mishandling. With the vast majority of surviving coins now having been certified, it is estimated that fewer than 7M true investment grade rare US coins exist. Highly Liquid - Unlike real estate, art and most other tangible assets, certified rare US coins are highly liquid. This liquidity is provided by a vast network of dealers, national electronic exchanges and millions of collectors/investors.
6. “A Spare Tire for Your Financial Vehicles…Just in Case ”
7. Numbers to Think About: Part I From 1983 to 2000 the U.S. stock market went from 1000 Dow to 11542 Dow. That is a 1054%stock market index increase in 17 years. It took30 months for the market to bottom at 7591 on October 2002 resulting in a 38% loss.
9. A Question for Investors In the period from 1986 to 2002 which was the most popular asset recommended to investors? 1. The Stock Market 2. Gold Bullion 3. Real Estate Answer: The Stock Market
10. A Question for Investors Was there a period from 1986 to 2002 where you would have been much better off outof the stock market? How about October 1987? The stock market lost 36% in 7 monthsand did not recover until late 1989
11. DJIA 1980– 2000 Crash of 1987 36% loss in seven months
12. Numbers to Think About: Part II From October 2002 to October 2007 the U.S. stock market went from 7591 Dow to 13930 Dow. That is a 83.50%stock market index increase in 5 years. It took 1 yearfor the market to bottom at 6544 on November 2009 resulting in a 48% loss. This decline wiped out all the stock market gains that were made in the last6 years.
13. DJIA 2000– November 2008 6 year market rise 30 month decline 1 year decline 48% loss
14. A Question for Investors In the period from 2002 to 2009 which was the most popular asset recommended to investors? 1. The Stock Market 2. Gold Bullion 3. Real Estate Answer: The Stock Market
15. A Question for Investors Was there a period from 2002 to 2009 where you would have been much better off outof the stock market? How about October 2008? The stock market lost 48% in the following 12 months.
16. Numbers to Think About: Part III During the period March 1924 to March 1993, $500 billionwas invested in the U.S. stock market over this span of 69 years. From March 1993 to March 2003, over $500 billionwas invested in the U.S. stock market over this period of 10 years. From November 10-12, 2008, The stock market has lost about $1 trillionover those three days, according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, which reflects the value of nearly all U.S. stocks.
17. Numbers to Think About: Part IV The National Debt has ballooned from $1 trillionto$12.3 trillionfrom 1979 to 2010. (*as of January 2010)
18. Two Absolutely True Statements All markets willeventually correct. They go up and down. Inflationwillreturn. It also goes up and down.
20. A Financial “Spare Tire” From 1979 to 1981, beginning with the last two years of the Carter presidency that experienced double digit inflation , this asset increased in value by 700% in 18 months!!! Equities lost about 42%over the same period.
21. A Financial “Spare Tire” From 1987 to 1989, after the October ‘87 Market Crash, when equities lost from30%to60%in about 3 days, this asset increased by267% in the next 18 months!!!
22. Asset Allocation Model Using Rare U.S. Coins Hypothetical investment results using rare U.S. coins in a diversified portfolio during the inflationary period of 1979-1981
23. $100 = Wealth Last period of high inflation was 1979-1981 beginning the last two years of the Carter administration. Average inflation rate was 13.8% per year Equities lost average of 7.5% per year U.S. National Debt: $1 trillion During this same period, rare U.S. coins increased an average of 700%
25. $100 = Wealth $95 Equities -15%investment loss -27.6% inflation loss -42.6% total loss $95 worth $54.53 $5 Rare Coins 700% increase -27.6%inflation loss $5 worth $38.62 Add to $54.53 Equity Portfolio value TOTAL: $93.15
26. $100 = Wealth $90 Equities -15%investment loss -27.6% inflation loss -42.6% total loss $90 worth $51.66 $10 Rare Coins 700% increase -27.6%inflation loss $10 worth $72.76 Add $51.66 Equity Portfolio value TOTAL:$124.42
27. $100 = Wealth $85 Equities -15% investment loss -27.6% inflation loss -42.6% total loss $85 worth $48.79 $15 Rare Coins 700% increase -27.6%inflation loss $15 worth $109.14 Add $48.79 Equity Portfolio value TOTAL:$157.93
28. $100 = Wealth If you did notdiversify your portfolio $100 Equities -15% investment loss -27.6% inflation loss -42.6% total loss $100 worth$57.40
29. Present Financial Situation 2010 U.S. National Debt: $12.2 trillion Inflation: currently low Rare coin prices: currently low What is next for these cycles??? *As of 1/10/2010. Source: brillig.com
31. Rare Coin Investment Parameters U.S. Coin Pre-1934 (gold coins) Pre-1955 (copper, nickel and silver coins) Condition (Grade) MS/PF63 to MS/PR68 Certified by NGC or PCGS NGC- Numismatic Guaranty Corporation PCGS- Professional Coin Grading Service Must contain ALL elements above
36. Historical Market Indices – Brown Study, Univ. of Chicago “Over the last 62 years, rare coins offered an average annual arithmetic mean return of 10.46 percent and an average annual geometric mean return of 9.83 percent, with a standard deviation of 12.3 percent. This compares quite favorably against growth stocks over this same 62-year period...” Robert A. Brown, Ph.D., CFA Journal of Financial Planning
39. Rare US Coin returns are negatively correlated with Bills and Bonds On a year-to-year basis, Rare US Coin returns have low correlations with equities. However, on a 10-year moving average basis they have a strong inverse relationship: Correlation with DJIA from 1941-2005 was -0.684 Correlation with S&P 500 from 1970-2005 was -0.655 Historical Market Indices – Brown Study, Univ. of Chicago
41. Historical Market Indices –Lombra Study, Penn State University In a recent independent study conducted at Penn State University on U.S. rare coins as investments, among major findings were: “Considered individually, stocks and rare U.S. coins had the highest rates of returns over the past 25 years” “The returns on Treasury bonds and rare U.S. coins are inversely related over the entire 25-year period. The returns on coins are more highly correlated with inflation than any other asset class, including gold bullion.Taken together, this evidence suggests the potential for considerable gains from appropriate diversification.” Source: L.A. Research, Penn State University, 2004
42. Historical Market Indices –Lombra Study, Penn State University A further significant finding in this study was the following: “Utilizing the tools of modern portfolio analysis, an extensive analysis of efficient portfolios was conducted for a wide variety of weighting schemes, and for various sub-periods over the last quarter century. The results indicate that including a modest amount of rare U.S. coins within an existing portfolio could improve investment performance by either increasing returns without significantly increasing risk or by reducing risk without adversely affecting returns significantly.” Raymond Lombra, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Penn State University Source: L.A. Research, Penn State University, 2004
43. G H B I J C D A E F Historical Market Indices – Lombra Study, Penn State University
44. Historical Market Indices – Lombra Study, Penn State University Long Term Performance 1979– 2003, Average Annual % Returns Stocks 13.7% Treasury Bonds 10.9% Gold Bullion 3.9% Coins (all types- MS65) 14.1% Coins (all types -MS63-65) 11.8% Source: L.A. Research, Penn State University, 2004
46. Historical Market Indices – BMA CoinDex $10,000 invested in Gold Bullion Vs Rare U.S. Gold Coins Vs S&P 500 Period: Jan 1975- Jan 2004 Source: Coin Dealer Newsletter, Standard and Poor’s, World Gold Council
48. Determining Client Suitability Client Investment Objectives: a. Growth -suitable b. Income - not suitable Client Holding Period: a. Long Term, 4 -10 year b. Short term profits can be taken c. Not recommended for periods less than 2 years
49. Determining Client Suitability Client Investment Amount: a. Should not be more than 5-15% of total assets b. Recommended minimum is $US 20,000 c. Additional amounts can be added in $5,000 increments d. Client should be diversified in series and type
50. Tax Considerations- US Non-income producing, therefore tax-deferred Rare coins can be used in defined benefit pension plans without restriction Currently, rare coins are not eligible for use in IRAs or defined contribution plans Capital gains tax treatment not presently applied to rare coin investments, however, any losses can be used to offset other investment capital gains
53. Pricing U.S. Rare Coins Certification Services: Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS)* Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC)* ANACS Independent Coin Grading Company (ICG) Dominion Grading Service (DGS) *(recommended for investors)
54. Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter Published weekly each Friday and received on each Monday by coin dealers
55. The “Redbook” The Guide to United States Coins has been published annually since 1947. It is not used as a pricing guide but as a identification source.
57. Liquidating U.S. Rare Coins Wholesale - immediate to 3 days Auction 75 to 90 days for “signature type auctions” 14 to 28 days for “certified only auctions” 7-30 days for “internet auctions” Consignment for Retail Sale Private Sale The preferred method is auction for the maximum profit. The least effective method is consignment for retail.
58. Liquidation Methods Wholesale: Larger spreads between retail and wholesale. Fast but can be costly. Auction: Fees can be negotiated. Preferred method. Auctioneer is paid for results. Private Sale: Usually between wholesale and auction. Problem with settlement unless brokered.
60. Rare Coin Auctions: The Big Three The 3 major auction houses in rare coins are: New York, NY Wolfeboro, NH Est. 1947 Dallas, TX Est. 1982 Irvine, CA Est. 1931
61. Rare Coin Auctions Auction is the preferred method of buying and selling coins. There are three types of auction available. 1. “Signature” sales 2. “Bullet” sales 3. Internet sales
62. Rare Coin Auctions: Signature Sale “Signature”sales which are conducted 4 to 5 times per year are major auctions which offer all types of material such as U.S. coins (both certified and uncertified), foreign coins, currency, ancient coins and other numismatic material. Catalogs are bound, full-color publications containing photographs of the majority of the coins consigned. The per lot value of the coins vary based on minimums set by each auction house, but in most cases are for high value items priced at $2000 and up.
63. Rare Coin Auctions: Bullet Sale “Bullet”sales which are conducted 12 -14 times per year are auctions that offer only certified coins. Due to the certification, the catalogs contain only written descriptions of the consigned coins. The coins in these sales are lowered priced certified coins that do not meet the minimum lot value for signature sales.
64. Auctions: Internet Sale “Internet”sales are conducted weekly and offer many coins, both certified and uncertified. The majority of coins sold are those that have been rejected for sale in catalog sales or coins with problems (altered, questionable toning, minor firm certification, etc.) Although there are some firms using the Internet for it’s efficiency, the Internet is more the realm of the untrained bargain-seeker that tends to overpay for less than quality material. It is a wonderful place to sell coins, but definitely not the best for acquisition. Professional collectors and dealers prefer the established venue of live auctions to acquire the best material. The large auction houses now have internet bidding available on their live sales, however, internet bidding is closed 24 hours prior to the live auction taking place. The floor bidders take precedent to internet bidders in these cases.
65. Rare Coin Sales: Internet Auction Sites Below are listings from an coin auction site on SUPERB GEM 1911-D $20 GOLD SAINT GAUDENS - NTC MS67! - $0.99 Mar-19 19:50 RARE 1915 $20 GOLD SAINT GAUDENS - NTC MS65! - $2,690.00 Mar-19 19:45 RARE 1908 WITH MOTTO $20 GOLD SAINT GAUDENS - NTC MS65! $0.99 Mar-19 19:40 RARE DAHLONEGA GOLD 1846-D Gold $2.50 Quarter Eagle!!Only 19,303 Minted! $1.00 Mar-19 19:36 RARE 1855 kellogg $50 Restrike From The Central America Struck Sept 12, 2001! $1.00 Mar-19 19:35 RARE 1805 Capped Bust Right Gold $5.00 Half Eagle. ONLY 33,183 MINTED!! $1.00 Mar-19 19:34 US 24 Coin Certified Gold Collection $20 to $1 - $9,000.00 Mar-19 19:33 US 13 Coin Old Gold Collection $20 to $1 - $3,999.00 Mar19 19:33 This method of acquisition is NOT recommended for investors
66. Auction values are generally not guaranteed. The prices realized can be either higher or lower than estimated based on market conditions and activity. However, some of the larger auction houses will guarantee the items to sell at an agreed upon price between the auction house and the consignor. Buying rare coins at auction allows knowledgeable buyers to opportunity to acquire coins at or below wholesale by purchasing undervalued, high grade items that may currently be out of favor. All rare coins have cyclical performance. Auctions are best utilized during steadily rising markets for liquidation Clients selling rare coins may receive advance payments up to 50% of the estimated value on consignments up to two weeks prior to the date of the actual auction Advances are charged a nominal interest rate Auction Values
69. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents We are a private "concierge" firm that provides U.S. rare coin and bullion services to referred clients only. If you visit our website (www.ircbs.com) you have been referred to us directly or you are an existing client. IRCBS does not advertise or solicit business from the general public. Our website is not registered with search engines or traffic generators. The information on this site is educational, informative and can be freely accessed. However, you will notice IRCBS does not have "special deals", "coins of the week" or other such offerings typical in the Internet rare coin market. Our transactions are not “approval” sales. We do not hold inventory and then attempt to sell them to clients.
70. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents We provide services to our clients as an independent auction agent to acquire portfolios of high-grade investment material at the best possible prices. We bid for our clients at premier auctions conducted by the nation's top firms in order to help our clients acquire the best quality coins available in the market. It is due to this time-intensive process that we restrict our activities to assist qualified, referred investors rather than using the typical mass marketing approach so common in the rare coin marketplace.
71. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents Our clients remain anonymous. IRCBS does not disclose the identity of our clients. This provides our clients the privacy of ownership and financial information. Using a professional auction agent helps eliminate the client from over- bidding on material, bidding on improper material or emotional reactions to auction activity. Auction acquisitions will allow the client to procure rare coins without the typical additional add-on charges that are necessary for large retail firms to cover marketing costs, rent, inventory carrying charges, salaries, benefits etc., resulting in a more favorable purchase price. Additional charges for “premium quality” and “rarity” are avoided in auction purchases since these factors are integral in the price.
72. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents Advantages for our clients No Inventory - We do not carry an inventory of rare coins. Coins are acquired on an order-by-order basis at major auction venues. No Conflicts of Interest - Because we are not affiliated with or owned by a major coin dealer our only incentive is to provide clients with high quality portfolios of prospectively undervalued coins. We are not an outlet for slow-moving or excess inventory. No Direct Sales - We do not telemarket or solicit sales through advertising nor do we work with the general public. We work exclusively with selected professional investment advisors and wealth managers as well as qualified accredited investors. No Speculation - We don’t speculate or otherwise attempt to manipulate the market for our personal gain on the coins we sell.
73. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents Clients will receive actual possession of their coin portfolio. This is NOT a coin fund or partnership. IRCBS will provides follow-up service in form of newsletters, e-mail alerts and personal contact.
74. Investors Rare Coin and Bullion Service Principal’s Background Burnett Marus, RFC is a 37-year veteran of the financial planning industry. He began to specialize in tangible investment portfolios in 1975. Over $17,000,000 in rare coins, rare stamps and art objects were included in clients' investment portfolios, in addition to traditional equity investments, from 1976 to 1980 with his guidance. He served as an independent consultant to financial planning community in tangible asset investments from 1980 to 1981 . He conducted seminars on the subject for a number financial organizations as the International Association of Financial Planning, the Canadian Association of Financial Planners, the National Association of Estate Planners and Councils and the American Society of CLUs and ChFCs. In 1981 he was selected as president of US Tangible Investment Corporation, one of the nation's largest rare coin investment firms and an affiliate of Heritage Capital Corporation. Mr. Marus successfully expanded company operations into Canada in 1986 and instituted the translation of coin investment materials into French, Spanish and Mandarin. Eastern Michigan University also awarded Mr. Marus their prestigious Alumni Achievement Award in 1986. He was named as the advisor to the first limited partnership in rare U.S. coins in Australia in 1991. In 1996, Mr. Marus was named to the “International Who's Who of Professionals".
75. Investors Rare Coin and Bullion Service Principal’s Background He recently retired from the National Board of Directors of the International Association of Registered Financial Consultants, after serving as the association’s treasurer. He was honored by the association for serving 12 elected years on the national board. He also served as a member of the Board of Directors of the Dallas-Fort Worth chapter of the International Association for Financial Planning for seven years. Among the organizations he has spoken for are: The National Convention of the International Association of Registered Financial Planners; IAFP Chapters in Long Island, Detroit, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Houston, Quad Cities, Birmingham, New Orleans and Pittsburgh; the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors; the 2001, 2002 ,2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 Financial Advisors Forum; the British Columbia Chapter and the British Columbia North Chapter of the Canadian Association of Financial Planners; The Iowa Medical Society; Eastern Michigan University; Purdue University and the University of Tulsa. His articles have been published in Financial Planning, Trusts and Estates, The Stanger Register, Ticker Magazine, The New York Sun, The Investment Advisor, The Journal of Personal Finance, The Financial Times, The Detroit News, The Montreal Gazette, The Vancouver Sun and The Calgary Sun among others. He currently serves on the Editorial Advisory Board of The Journal of Personal Finance as well as being a contributing columnist. His book, “U.S. Rare Coin Investments: A Practical Guide for Financial Advisors” was published in Fall 2003.
76. Investors Rare Coin and Bullion Service Established in 2005 to provide private “concierge” rare coin services to selected advisors and HNW investors. Principal has over 37 years experience in the financial services industry, specializing in tangible assets. Member of: International Association of Registered Financial Consultants (IARFC), Society of Financial Service Professionals (SFSP), North American Collectibles Association (NACA), American Numismatic Association (ANA), Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association (FLEOA)
77. For Additional Information: 908 Audelia Road, Suite 200 – 150 Richardson, Texas 75081 Phone/Fax: 972-644-6117 www.ircbs.com