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2009 APARTMENT TRENDS A National Multifamily Market Overview Linwood C. Thompson Managing Director NMHG
APARTMENT INVESTMENT  TRENDS and STRATEGIES
Market Divergence   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
State of the Apartment Industry   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Observations for 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Divergence   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Divergence   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Divergence   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market Divergence   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Commercial Mortgage  Delinquency Rates by Group Delinquency Rates Delinquency rates at the end of each period Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Mortgage Bankers Association
Total CMBS Outstanding: $779.6 billion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* As of 1Q09 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MBA
Total Multi-Family Mortgage Debt Outstanding: $914.3 billion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* As of 2Q09 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, MBA
Estimated Multi-Family Debt Maturities  by Lender Type Billions $ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
Estimated Multi-Family Debt  Maturities by Vintage  Maturing Balance (Billions $) Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
Distressed Loan / Asset Issues   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Distressed Loan / Asset Issues   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Anatomy of Current Market Divergence   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Apartment Investment Trends  Dollar Volume by Price Category Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics $104 Billion $100 Billion $45 Billion * Excludes Archstone Privatization $87 Billion $27 Billion $9 Billion
National Apartment Price and Cap Rates * Through 2Q Includes sales $1Million and Greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services,  Costar Group, Inc. Average  Price per Unit (000s) Average Cap Rate
Re-Pricing of Risk by Quality Reflected in  Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Market   Average Cap Rate Sales $5 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics * Preliminary Estimate
18 – Month Cap Rate Adjustment Matrix *   Primary Secondary Tertiary Class “A” Class “B” Class “C” 1.25  1.50 1.75 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.25 2.75 2.00 * Change in cap rates last 18 months
18 – Month Pricing Adjustment Matrix   Primary Secondary Tertiary Class “A” Class “B” Class “C” -25%   Base =  5.00 / 5.50 5.50 / 6.25 6.00 / 6.75 -29%   -32%   -27%   -30%   -36%   -33%   -35%   -41%
U.S. Apartment Buyer Composition Sales $5 Million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics * YTD through July Percent of Sales Volume
U.S. Public REIT Valuation Indices  vs. S&P 500 Index: December 1993 = 100 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, NAREIT, Standard and Poor’s  Index (Dec. 1993 = 100) * Through September
Key Observations for 2010 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Marcus & Millichap’s NMHG Remains Bullish on U.S. Apartments Long-Term ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Population Dynamics ,[object Object],[object Object],Millions 94 Million
Demographic Dynamics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
7.4 Million Net New Households 3.2 Million New Renter Households 4.1 Million New Owner Households * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Economy.com, Harvard University U.S. Household Growth Projection 2010 - 2015*
Environmental Dynamics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Budget / Fiscal Dynamics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Affordability Dynamics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Rent vs. Own Dynamics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Marcus & Millichap’s NMHG Remains Bullish on U.S. Apartments Long-Term ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
U.S Economic, Capital Markets and  Apartment Market Overview and Outlook –  Multi-Family Executive Conference
Estimated Commercial Debt Maturities  by Lender Type Billions $ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
Indicative Fannie Mae Rates Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve Board
Echo Boomer Demand Supports Appreciation * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau Change in Population Net Change:  -2.1 Million  -1.2 Million  1.8 Million  3.4 Million  3.2 Million  1.1 Million
U.S. Apartment Construction as a Percent of Beginning Inventory Construction as a Percent of Beg. Inventory * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
U.S. Apartment Investment Trends   Transactions by Price Total Transactions Excludes Archstone Privatization Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
U.S. Apartment Investment Trends   Dollar Volume by Price Total Dollar Volume (billions) Excludes Archstone Privatization Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
Year-over-Year Change * Through August Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BOC, Federal Reserve Value of U.S. Dollar vs. Value of Exports

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Thompson Mfe2009

  • 1. 2009 APARTMENT TRENDS A National Multifamily Market Overview Linwood C. Thompson Managing Director NMHG
  • 2. APARTMENT INVESTMENT TRENDS and STRATEGIES
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates by Group Delinquency Rates Delinquency rates at the end of each period Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Mortgage Bankers Association
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Estimated Multi-Family Debt Maturities by Lender Type Billions $ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
  • 14. Estimated Multi-Family Debt Maturities by Vintage Maturing Balance (Billions $) Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Apartment Investment Trends Dollar Volume by Price Category Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics $104 Billion $100 Billion $45 Billion * Excludes Archstone Privatization $87 Billion $27 Billion $9 Billion
  • 19. National Apartment Price and Cap Rates * Through 2Q Includes sales $1Million and Greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Costar Group, Inc. Average Price per Unit (000s) Average Cap Rate
  • 20. Re-Pricing of Risk by Quality Reflected in Apartment Cap Rate Trends by Market Average Cap Rate Sales $5 million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics * Preliminary Estimate
  • 21. 18 – Month Cap Rate Adjustment Matrix * Primary Secondary Tertiary Class “A” Class “B” Class “C” 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.25 2.75 2.00 * Change in cap rates last 18 months
  • 22. 18 – Month Pricing Adjustment Matrix Primary Secondary Tertiary Class “A” Class “B” Class “C” -25% Base = 5.00 / 5.50 5.50 / 6.25 6.00 / 6.75 -29% -32% -27% -30% -36% -33% -35% -41%
  • 23. U.S. Apartment Buyer Composition Sales $5 Million and greater Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics * YTD through July Percent of Sales Volume
  • 24. U.S. Public REIT Valuation Indices vs. S&P 500 Index: December 1993 = 100 Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, NAREIT, Standard and Poor’s Index (Dec. 1993 = 100) * Through September
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. 7.4 Million Net New Households 3.2 Million New Renter Households 4.1 Million New Owner Households * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Economy.com, Harvard University U.S. Household Growth Projection 2010 - 2015*
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. U.S Economic, Capital Markets and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook – Multi-Family Executive Conference
  • 36. Estimated Commercial Debt Maturities by Lender Type Billions $ Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Foresight Analytics
  • 37. Indicative Fannie Mae Rates Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve Board
  • 38. Echo Boomer Demand Supports Appreciation * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau Change in Population Net Change: -2.1 Million -1.2 Million 1.8 Million 3.4 Million 3.2 Million 1.1 Million
  • 39. U.S. Apartment Construction as a Percent of Beginning Inventory Construction as a Percent of Beg. Inventory * Forecast Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Reis
  • 40. U.S. Apartment Investment Trends Transactions by Price Total Transactions Excludes Archstone Privatization Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
  • 41. U.S. Apartment Investment Trends Dollar Volume by Price Total Dollar Volume (billions) Excludes Archstone Privatization Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc., Real Capital Analytics
  • 42. Year-over-Year Change * Through August Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BOC, Federal Reserve Value of U.S. Dollar vs. Value of Exports

Editor's Notes

  1. Investment composition: Institutional : pension funds, insurance companies & banks User/Other : corporations, governmental and non-profit Syndicator : Tenancy-in-Common and Private REITs Fund : privately sponsored comingled opportunity/equity funds
  2. U.S. office construction as a percent of beginning inventory
  3. The price per barrel for crude oil continues to rise eroding consumers disposable income. As prices continue to rise, retail sales will be further reduced.