One of America's greatest concerns is Iran with nuclear weapons. To better understand the threat, the US intelligence community gather information. This paper is a hypothetical multi-INT collection strategy which evaluates potential methods of data gathering, as well as the risks and reliability of each method.

1. Collection Strategy: Iranian Nuclear Program
Genii Grimsley
30 August 2009
INTL304
Purpose:
The purpose of this paper is to develop a collection strategy on the Iranian Nuclear Program
(INP). The plan is to gather a complete picture of the INP through the utilization of the five main
collection methods: OSINT, HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT and MASINT. Each collection method will use
multiple collectors to answer several questions. However, because of denial and deception (D&D)
operations not all information will be completely reliable, which will be denoted in each case.
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT):
OSINT is overtly available to the general public and any intelligence agency. OSINT is
especially important in developing background knowledge. In the case of collecting intelligence on the
INP, OSINT will not be able to gather much data. To collect OSINT data, intelligence collectors will use
the Web, news articles and journals.
Targets of Intelligence Collection Questions Collectors Reliability
Biographical information of Scientific, Technical Staff,
Military Personnel and Politicans involved in the INP
What has the key personnel worked on?
What decisions have personnel made in the past?
Web
Journal
News
6
8
5
List of Allies and Enemies Who are Iran’s political allies and enemies?
Who are Iran’s military allies and enemies?
Web
News
5
5
Iran’s views What are Iran’s views on America and their allies? Web
News
5
5
Nuclear tests Have there been nuclear tests in Iran? Web
News
4
4
D&D operations heavily focus on open source intelligence to protect the targets. Data gathered
with this collection method should be considered highly suspect but not useless. Some useful information
that can be gathered by OSINT is the biographical information about key figures in the INP, who Iran’s
allies and enemies are, what Iran’s views are and if there have been nuclear tests in Iran.
One will note that the reliability for each of these targets collection is low, especially in the case
of Iranian nuclear tests. The proliferation of nuclear weapons is considered illegal by the United Nations
and could potentially lead to negative reactions by other countries, especially neighboring enemy

2. countries. Because of these reasons, all OSINT collected on nuclear tests may be considered affected by
D&D operations.
The biographical data of key personnel is more reliable, especially in the case of scientific and
technical staff. While the majority of papers, past employment and education are available publically,
information dealing with nuclear research maybe classified.
Human Intelligence (HUMINT):
HUMINT is a covert method of gaining intelligence from human sources on a multitude of
subjects. All of the collectors are operatives that have direct access to information involving the INP,
either as spies that are embedded in the military or political operations of the INP or defectors that have
direct knowledge and evidence of the INP.
Targets of Intelligence Collection Questions Collectors Reliability
Biographical information of Scientific,
Technical Staff, Military Personnel and
Politicians involved in the INP
What has the key personnel worked on?
What decisions have personnel made in the past?
Academics
Diplomats
Military Aides
9
7
7
Iranian Budget How much of the budget is being spent on the INP?
How much of the budget is being spent on military projects?
How much of the budget is being spent on energy
development projects?
Political Aides
Military Aides
Defectors
6
5
3
Foreign Aid What foreign assistance is Iran receiving for the INP? Civilian contractors
Diplomats
Political Aides
Defector
6
7
8
5
Military operation of INP Who are there military agencies operating INP? Military Aides
Defector
7
5
Political purpose and ramifications What is the political purpose and ramifications to the INP? Diplomats
Political Aides
7
6
Acquisitions What equipment and raw materials are being procured that
could be used by potential INP?
Where are the equipment and materials coming from?
What is the grade of the nuclear material?
Civilian contractors
Scientific and
Technical staff
Military Aide
8
7
7
Construction projects What military construction projects are underway or just
completed?
Civilian contractors
Military Aides
8
7
Nuclear testing Have there been nuclear tests in Iran?
Are missiles being tested?
Civilian contractors
Scientific and
Technical staff
Military Aides
Defectors
7
7
6
5
Evaluation What are the results of any nuclear tests in Iran? Civilian contractors
Scientific and
Technical staff
Military Aides
6
6
5
While spies can gather a large amount of information, they are not immune to D&D operations.
With the use of cleared agents, classified information can be revealed. However not all agents are
cleared, but agents such as academics and diplomats may gather pertinent information such as scientific

3. and technical staff, foreign aide, or political purpose and ramifications. The risk to the agents is high
though as any INP site or information will be highly guarded by with tight security and could be a source
of D&D. Additionally, any agent caught delivering information will cause significant political fall-out for
America and may cost the agent their life. The use of civilian contractors is a weakness of the INP that
can be exploited by intelligence agencies to embed their own agent, and thus reduce D&D. D&D
operations are also successful if HUMINT agents are denied access to the information or deliver
deceptive information to the collection manager.
Signal Intelligence (SIGINT):
SIGINT is a combination of communication intelligence, electronic intelligence (ELINT) and
foreign instrument intelligence. The collectors that capture communications are audio transmitters,
telephonic surveillance, e-mails and money transfers. The collectors that capture ELINT are technical or
operational electronic intelligence.
Targets of Intelligence Collection Questions Collectors Reliability
Foreign Aid What foreign assistance is Iran receiving for the INP? Audio transmitters
Telephone surveillance
E-Mails
Money Transfers
7
6
7
8
Acquisitions What equipment and raw materials are being procured that
could be used by potential INP?
Where are the equipment and materials coming from?
What is the grade of the nuclear material?
Audio transmitters
Telephone surveillance
E-Mails
Money Transfers
8
7
8
9
Construction projects What military construction projects are underway or just
completed?
Audio transmitters
Telephone surveillance
E-Mails
7
6
8
Nuclear testing Have there been nuclear tests in Iran?
Are missiles being tested?
Audio transmitters
Telephone surveillance
E-Mails
Operational ELINT
6
6
7
8
Evaluation What are the results of any nuclear tests in Iran? Audio transmitters
Telephone surveillance
E-Mails
Operational ELINT
5
4
6
8
Military operation of INP Who are the military agencies operating INP? Audio transmitters
Telephone surveillance
E-Mails
7
6
8
Political purpose and ramifications What is the political purpose and ramifications to the INP? Audio transmitters
Telephone surveillance
E-Mails
7
6
8
SIGINT can be more reliable when covertly gathering data on conversations and electronic
intelligence than by HUMINT. All conversations gathered in the presence of an outsider may be
contaminated with deceptive information, thus surveillance, wiretaps and intercepted communications

4. may gather better intelligence on acquisition, construction, foreign aid, military operations and political
purposes and ramifications. Information gathered through money transfers can be highly reliable
surrounding foreign aid and acquisition. When dealing with nuclear testing and evaluation though,
communications is highly suspect for D&D operations. ELINT can gather better data that is less
susceptible to D&D as the signals of missiles and nuclear tests cannot be altered easily. D&D may be
successful if operations occur when collectors are not focused upon the operation.
Imagery Intelligence (IMINT):
IMINT gathers visually available information on targets. The collectors of IMINT are KH
satellites, spy planes, short-range photography and videography. The pictures and video that are collected
can detail physical features and events of importance.
Targets of Intelligence Collection Questions Collectors Reliability
Acquisitions What equipment and raw materials are being procured that
could be used by potential INP?
Where are the equipment and materials coming from?
Satellite Imagery
Plane Imagery
Photography
Video
7
6
6
6
Construction projects What military construction projects are underway or just
completed?
Satellite Imagery
Plane Imagery
Photography
7
6
5
Electricity Where are the electrical lines running?
Where is electrical output high?
Satellite Imagery
Plane Imagery
Photography
8
7
6
Nuclear testing Have there been nuclear tests in Iran?
Are missiles being tested?
Satellite Imagery
Plane Imagery
Photography
Video
8
8
7
7
Evaluation What are the results of any nuclear tests in Iran?
What is the distance of the missiles?
Satellite Imagery
Plane Imagery
Photography
Video
8
7
7
8
IMINT is fairly reliable at collecting information on the above-mentioned targets. IMINT is best
utilized on locating physical features and events such as electrical lines, nuclear test sites and construction
projects. IMINT can be affected by D&D operations though. Deception may be utilized by the
instillation of fake electrical lines, moving fake equipment and covering or extending the destruction of
the nuclear test grounds. Denial may be used by placing INP facilities and testing grounds underground.
Denial may also occur by moving equipment or conducting tests when the collectors are not present,
during the night or inclement weather.
Measurement and Signal Intelligence (MASINT):

5. MASINT collects scientific and technical data on targets through the use of specialized
collectors. These collectors include material intelligence, spectrometry, telemetry and nuclear sensors.
While these collectors are not able to collect a wide amount of data, they are very effective in what they
collect.
Targets of Intelligence Collection Questions Collectors Reliability
Acquisitions What equipment and raw materials are being procured that
could be used by potential INP?
Where are the equipment and materials coming from?
What is the grade of the nuclear material?
Nuclear sensors
Material intelligence
7
8
Construction projects What military construction projects are underway or just
completed?
Spectrometry 8
Electricity Where is electrical output high? Electromagnetic
signals
Spectrometry
9
8
Nuclear testing Have there been nuclear tests in Iran?
Are missiles being tested?
Telemetry
Nuclear sensors
8
9
Evaluation What are the results of any nuclear tests in Iran?
What is the distance of the missiles?
Telemetry
Nuclear sensors
Material intelligence
8
9
7
The D&D operations for this type of intelligence are less effective than other methods of
intelligence, making this form of collection highly reliable. Electrical signatures can only be disguised
when turned off or placed in areas of high electrical output, such as urban areas. Nuclear sensors are
specific for nuclear materials and thus difficult to deceive. Material intelligence can test debris and
emission for nuclear material refinement as well as weapon manufacturing.
Conclusion:
While D&D operations can hinder any intelligence gathered, there is generally a grain of truth
embedded within. By collecting data for the same questions through multiple collection methods, D&D
can be discovered and removed. With a reasonable amount of time to collect data, it is possible to get
true answers on what is the status of the INP is and more importantly, what are the threats to America and
our allies from the INP.
Reference:
Clark, Robert M. 2007. Intelligence Analysis: A target-centric approach. 2nd
edition. Washington: CQ
Press.

6. MASINT collects scientific and technical data on targets through the use of specialized
collectors. These collectors include material intelligence, spectrometry, telemetry and nuclear sensors.
While these collectors are not able to collect a wide amount of data, they are very effective in what they
collect.
Targets of Intelligence Collection Questions Collectors Reliability
Acquisitions What equipment and raw materials are being procured that
could be used by potential INP?
Where are the equipment and materials coming from?
What is the grade of the nuclear material?
Nuclear sensors
Material intelligence
7
8
Construction projects What military construction projects are underway or just
completed?
Spectrometry 8
Electricity Where is electrical output high? Electromagnetic
signals
Spectrometry
9
8
Nuclear testing Have there been nuclear tests in Iran?
Are missiles being tested?
Telemetry
Nuclear sensors
8
9
Evaluation What are the results of any nuclear tests in Iran?
What is the distance of the missiles?
Telemetry
Nuclear sensors
Material intelligence
8
9
7
The D&D operations for this type of intelligence are less effective than other methods of
intelligence, making this form of collection highly reliable. Electrical signatures can only be disguised
when turned off or placed in areas of high electrical output, such as urban areas. Nuclear sensors are
specific for nuclear materials and thus difficult to deceive. Material intelligence can test debris and
emission for nuclear material refinement as well as weapon manufacturing.
Conclusion:
While D&D operations can hinder any intelligence gathered, there is generally a grain of truth
embedded within. By collecting data for the same questions through multiple collection methods, D&D
can be discovered and removed. With a reasonable amount of time to collect data, it is possible to get
true answers on what is the status of the INP is and more importantly, what are the threats to America and
our allies from the INP.
Reference:
Clark, Robert M. 2007. Intelligence Analysis: A target-centric approach. 2nd
edition. Washington: CQ
Press.