Introduction
Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit
from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and
gossip is exchanged. I hope to enrich the vocabulary that people use when they talk about the
judgments and choices of others, the company’s new policies, or a colleague’s investment
decisions. Why be concerned with gossip? Because it is much easier, as well as far more
enjoyable, to identify and label the mistakes of others than to recognize our own. Questioning what
we believe and want is difficult at the best of times, and especially difficult when we most need to
do it, but we can benefit from the informed opinions of others. Many of us spontaneously anticipate
how friends and colleagues will evaluate our choices; the quality and content of these anticipated
judgments therefore matters. The expectation of intelligent gossip is a powerful motive for serious
self-criticism, more powerful than New Year resolutions to improve one’s decision making at
work and at home.
To be a good diagnostician, a physician needs to acquire a large set of labels for diseases, each
of which binds an idea of the illness and its symptoms, possible antecedents and causes, possible
developments and consequences, and possible interventions to cure or mitigate the illness.
Learning medicine consists in part of learning the language of medicine. A deeper understanding of
judgments and choices also requires a richer vocabulary than is available in everyday language.
The hope for informed gossip is that there are distinctive patterns in the errors people make.
Systematic errors are known as biases, and they recur predictably in particular circumstances.
When the handsome and confident speaker bounds onto the stage, for example, you can anticipate
that the audience will judge his comments more favorably than he deserves. The availability of a
diagnostic label for this bias—the halo effect—makes it easier to anticipate, recognize, and
understand.
When you are asked what you are thinking about, you can normally answer. You believe you
know what goes on in your mind, which often consists of one conscious thought leading in an
orderly way to another. But that is not the only way the mind works, nor indeed is that the typical
way. Most impressions and thoughts arise in your conscious experience without your knowing how
they got there. You cannot tracryd>e how you came to the belief that there is a lamp on the desk in
front of you, or how you detected a hint of irritation in your spouse’s voice on the telephone, or
how you managed to avoid a threat on the road before you became consciously aware of it. The
mental work that produces impressions, intuitions, and many decisions goes on in silence in our
mind.
Much of the discussion in this book is about biases of intuition. However, the focus on error
does not denigrate human intelligence, any m ...
As our life becomes more dynamic and less structured, intuition gains more and more recognition as an essential decision making tool. You have probably heard of experienced decision makers who are able to directly recognize the best option or course of action in many tricky situations. The solution just comes to them from somewhere in their subconscious mind, instead of being a result a lengthy chain of logical derivations or a computer output from a complicated Monte Carlo simulation.
Yes, intuition can make you a much more effective decision maker, especially when you deal with non-standard situations or in expedient decision making. Yet, before you put more weight on intuitive choices, there are a few important points you need to keep in mind.
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your LifeKarthik Karthi
There’s a good chance that we’ve all experienced feelings of
anxiety in response to real or perceived threats at one time or
another. For most people, these feelings are normal as the brain
is hard-wired to caution you at times of danger, change and the
unknown.
In fact, in many situations, experiencing a certain level of anxiety and stress can help boost your performance in specific tasks. For instance, a person might experience a heightened level of anxiety
the days leading up to a public event and that’s a completely
normal reaction.
Psychologists believe that anxiety is your body’s natural response to
stress and that this stress triggers a system in the brain that accentuates your performance. So, a little anxiety now and then is okay and might be your body’s way of preparing for an impending change.
Remember that there’s always a way out of any anxiety-driven
thought and feeling that you might be experiencing. Most
importantly, remember that you are not alone. The whole world
is waiting to discover and befriend you. All you need to do is meet them half-way.
An unexpected journey that would save her life by uncovering the "missing piece" of the weight loss puzzle for hundreds of thousands of people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s...
Emotional Intelligence 2.0 , a self-help book by Travis Bradberry and Jean Greaves, provides a toolkit and guide for readers to increase their emotional intelligence (EQ), which the writers say can be a benefit in business and personal relationships.
As our life becomes more dynamic and less structured, intuition gains more and more recognition as an essential decision making tool. You have probably heard of experienced decision makers who are able to directly recognize the best option or course of action in many tricky situations. The solution just comes to them from somewhere in their subconscious mind, instead of being a result a lengthy chain of logical derivations or a computer output from a complicated Monte Carlo simulation.
Yes, intuition can make you a much more effective decision maker, especially when you deal with non-standard situations or in expedient decision making. Yet, before you put more weight on intuitive choices, there are a few important points you need to keep in mind.
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your LifeKarthik Karthi
There’s a good chance that we’ve all experienced feelings of
anxiety in response to real or perceived threats at one time or
another. For most people, these feelings are normal as the brain
is hard-wired to caution you at times of danger, change and the
unknown.
In fact, in many situations, experiencing a certain level of anxiety and stress can help boost your performance in specific tasks. For instance, a person might experience a heightened level of anxiety
the days leading up to a public event and that’s a completely
normal reaction.
Psychologists believe that anxiety is your body’s natural response to
stress and that this stress triggers a system in the brain that accentuates your performance. So, a little anxiety now and then is okay and might be your body’s way of preparing for an impending change.
Remember that there’s always a way out of any anxiety-driven
thought and feeling that you might be experiencing. Most
importantly, remember that you are not alone. The whole world
is waiting to discover and befriend you. All you need to do is meet them half-way.
An unexpected journey that would save her life by uncovering the "missing piece" of the weight loss puzzle for hundreds of thousands of people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s...
Emotional Intelligence 2.0 , a self-help book by Travis Bradberry and Jean Greaves, provides a toolkit and guide for readers to increase their emotional intelligence (EQ), which the writers say can be a benefit in business and personal relationships.
7 ways anxiety might be slowly eating away your life | Improve self esteem | ...Kumar Vikram
7
Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life. Inside this eBook, you will discover the topics about it is natural to feel anxious, overthinking and obsessive thoughts, our brains respond to anxiety, negative and unwanted thoughts, lack of self-esteem and fear of rejection, self esteem and the fear of rejection, phobias and traumas, anxiety doesn't exist in isolation, workplace anxiety, the workplace is no exception, coping with anxiety at work, work at creating a work-life balance, social anxiety, eating disorder and so much more!
Social Intelligence (SI) is the ability to successfully build relationships and navigate social environments.
Our society puts a huge emphasis on book smarts and IQ, but our relationships effect a much bigger part of our lives.
Social smarts are far more important than your book smarts.
Building strong social relationships is worth the effort:
Strong relationships improve our immune system and help combat disease.
Loneliness and weak relationships are one of the major sources of stress, health problems and depression.
Our relationships affect every area of our lives–from colleagues to spouses to friends to kids.
Everyone from the age of 22 to 92 has felt the effects of high stress levels in their body, so if you’re a human being, Revitaa Pro could do you some good! Never in the history of medicine has a clinically and scientifically proven formula been created quite like this.
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.pdfHossamFathy23
It Is Natural to Feel Anxious
There’s a good chance that we’ve all experienced feelings of
anxiety in response to real or perceived threats at one time or
another. For most people, these feelings are normal as the brain
is hard-wired to caution you at times of danger, change and the
unknown.
In fact, in many situations, experiencing a certain level of anxiety
and stress can help boost your performance in specific tasks. For
instance, a person might experience a heightened level of anxiety
the days leading up to a public event and that’s a completely
normal reaction.
Psychologists believe that anxiety is your body’s natural response
to stress and that this stress triggers a system in the brain that
accentuates your performance. So, a little anxiety now and then
is okay and might be your body’s way of preparing for an
impending change
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.pdfPaulloPrime
There’s a good chance that we’ve all experienced feelings of anxiety in response to real or perceived threats at one time or another. For most people, these feelings are normal as the brain
is hard-wired to caution you at times of danger, change and the unknown.
In fact, in many situations, experiencing a certain level of anxiety and stress can help boost your performance in specific tasks. For instance, a person might experience a heightened level of anxiety
the days leading up to a public event and that’s a completely normal reaction.
Psychologists believe that anxiety is your body’s natural response
to stress and that this stress triggers a system in the brain that accentuates your performance. So, a little anxiety now and then is okay and might be your body’s way of preparing for an
impending change.
That Said, Not Every Anxious Feeling Is Normal
For some, these feelings can be all-consuming, impairing the
individual’s ability to enjoy life as they’d otherwise like to. For some, anxiety might treat their everyday events as life-or-death situations. It can become a disorder and that isn’t a good place to
be in. Fortunately, in most cases, there is always a way out. And one of the first steps to finding that way out is to dive into your mind and listen to what it might be trying to tell you.
It’s About Accepting Your Anxiety, Embracing and Understanding It Too
There is no shame in being anxious. And we would prefer not to have put this obvious point across (because it’s obvious and should ideally not need any re-affirmation). But sadly, because
of how this feeling can be trivialized and/or stigmatized, it’s important to let all those who experience anxiety know that they are not alone and by accepting it they’ll also be overcoming it.
This book is an attempt to throw some light on the much relevant topic. We’ve kept it short and brief because we don’t want to overload you with information but want to ease you into the expansive subject one book at a time.
In this book, we talk about 7 ways anxiety might be slowly eating
away your lives. We discuss:
1. Overthinking and obsessive thoughts
2. Lack of self-assurance and fear of judgment
3. Phobias and traumas
4. Workplace anxiety
5. Social anxiety
6. Eating disorder
7. Insomnia
On that note, we warmly welcome you to our book titled, 7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.’ We’ve had an enriching experience putting together this meaningful book and hope you feel benefited by it.
7 ways anxiety might be slowly eating away your lifeSolanki Abhishek
Obesity is not merely indulging into overeating and having a bulky body. It is more like a gateway to severe health diseases. Obese people should not be ridiculed; rather they should be taken care off. Obesity is calculated according to the body mass index (BMI) of a person’s body. Dividing the weight of a person in pounds by the square of his height in meters we get the BMI calculated. If an individual’s BMI is 30 or above then he falls under the category of an obese. Click here this link for more knowledge:https://8bb3dcw6ci-dsnc0a8-qydau4q.hop.clickbank.net/
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.pdfhealthfitness12
Experts define physical fitness as “one's ability to execute daily activities with optimal performance, endurance, and strength with the management of disease, fatigue, and stress and reduced sedentary behavior.” This description goes beyond being able to run
Overthinking || How to stop worrying, overcome anxiety and eliminate all nega...Selinmohanty1
ow to Stop Worrying and Eliminate the Negative Thinking in less of one month
Overthinking is more than just a nuisance--studies show thinking too much can take a serious toll on your well-being.
Here are the three dangers of being an overthinker:
It increases your chances of mental illness.
It interferes with problem-solving.
It disturbs your sleep.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yhpmrEDbXA
1000 words, 2 referencesBegin conducting research now on your .docxvrickens
1000 words, 2 references
Begin conducting research now on your company/client. After brainstorming on your company’s industry and after your preliminary research information-gathering techniques, create a research profile proposal to deliver to your company’s management that includes the following:
State the specific research goal for the proposal.
What is the company’s current business problem?
Who is the company’s competition?
Establish your population sample for researching customer attitudes and behaviors about the company and product.
Identify the steps in the research process.
.
1000 words only due by 5314 at 1200 estthis is a second part to.docxvrickens
1000 words only due by 5/3/14 at 12:00 est
this is a second part to this assignment due at a different time
Part 1
Your fast-food franchise has been cleared for business in all 4 countries (United Arab Emirates, Israel, Mexico, and China). You now have to start construction on your restaurants. The financing is coming from the United Arab Emirates, the materials are coming from Mexico and China, the engineering and technology are coming from Israel , and the labor will be hired locally within these countries by your management team from the United States. You invite all of the players to the headquarters in the United States for a big meeting to explain the project and get to know one another. The people seem to be staying with their own groups and not mingling.
What is the cultural phenomenon at play here (what is it called/ term)?
How do you explain the lack of intercultural communication and interaction?
What do you know about these cultures—specifically their economic, political, educational, and social systems—that could help you in getting them together?
What are some of the contrasting cultural values of these countries?
You are concerned about some of the language barriers as you start the meeting, particularly the fact that the United States is a low-context country, and some of the countries present are high-context countries. Furthermore, you only speak English, and you do not have an interpreter present.
How will this affect the presentation?
What are some of the issues you should be concerned about regarding verbal and nonverbal language for this group?
What strategy would you use to begin to have everyone develop a relationship with each other that will help ease future negotiations, development, and implementation?
.
More Related Content
Similar to IntroductionEvery author, I suppose, has in mind a set.docx
7 ways anxiety might be slowly eating away your life | Improve self esteem | ...Kumar Vikram
7
Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life. Inside this eBook, you will discover the topics about it is natural to feel anxious, overthinking and obsessive thoughts, our brains respond to anxiety, negative and unwanted thoughts, lack of self-esteem and fear of rejection, self esteem and the fear of rejection, phobias and traumas, anxiety doesn't exist in isolation, workplace anxiety, the workplace is no exception, coping with anxiety at work, work at creating a work-life balance, social anxiety, eating disorder and so much more!
Social Intelligence (SI) is the ability to successfully build relationships and navigate social environments.
Our society puts a huge emphasis on book smarts and IQ, but our relationships effect a much bigger part of our lives.
Social smarts are far more important than your book smarts.
Building strong social relationships is worth the effort:
Strong relationships improve our immune system and help combat disease.
Loneliness and weak relationships are one of the major sources of stress, health problems and depression.
Our relationships affect every area of our lives–from colleagues to spouses to friends to kids.
Everyone from the age of 22 to 92 has felt the effects of high stress levels in their body, so if you’re a human being, Revitaa Pro could do you some good! Never in the history of medicine has a clinically and scientifically proven formula been created quite like this.
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.pdfHossamFathy23
It Is Natural to Feel Anxious
There’s a good chance that we’ve all experienced feelings of
anxiety in response to real or perceived threats at one time or
another. For most people, these feelings are normal as the brain
is hard-wired to caution you at times of danger, change and the
unknown.
In fact, in many situations, experiencing a certain level of anxiety
and stress can help boost your performance in specific tasks. For
instance, a person might experience a heightened level of anxiety
the days leading up to a public event and that’s a completely
normal reaction.
Psychologists believe that anxiety is your body’s natural response
to stress and that this stress triggers a system in the brain that
accentuates your performance. So, a little anxiety now and then
is okay and might be your body’s way of preparing for an
impending change
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.pdfPaulloPrime
There’s a good chance that we’ve all experienced feelings of anxiety in response to real or perceived threats at one time or another. For most people, these feelings are normal as the brain
is hard-wired to caution you at times of danger, change and the unknown.
In fact, in many situations, experiencing a certain level of anxiety and stress can help boost your performance in specific tasks. For instance, a person might experience a heightened level of anxiety
the days leading up to a public event and that’s a completely normal reaction.
Psychologists believe that anxiety is your body’s natural response
to stress and that this stress triggers a system in the brain that accentuates your performance. So, a little anxiety now and then is okay and might be your body’s way of preparing for an
impending change.
That Said, Not Every Anxious Feeling Is Normal
For some, these feelings can be all-consuming, impairing the
individual’s ability to enjoy life as they’d otherwise like to. For some, anxiety might treat their everyday events as life-or-death situations. It can become a disorder and that isn’t a good place to
be in. Fortunately, in most cases, there is always a way out. And one of the first steps to finding that way out is to dive into your mind and listen to what it might be trying to tell you.
It’s About Accepting Your Anxiety, Embracing and Understanding It Too
There is no shame in being anxious. And we would prefer not to have put this obvious point across (because it’s obvious and should ideally not need any re-affirmation). But sadly, because
of how this feeling can be trivialized and/or stigmatized, it’s important to let all those who experience anxiety know that they are not alone and by accepting it they’ll also be overcoming it.
This book is an attempt to throw some light on the much relevant topic. We’ve kept it short and brief because we don’t want to overload you with information but want to ease you into the expansive subject one book at a time.
In this book, we talk about 7 ways anxiety might be slowly eating
away your lives. We discuss:
1. Overthinking and obsessive thoughts
2. Lack of self-assurance and fear of judgment
3. Phobias and traumas
4. Workplace anxiety
5. Social anxiety
6. Eating disorder
7. Insomnia
On that note, we warmly welcome you to our book titled, 7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.’ We’ve had an enriching experience putting together this meaningful book and hope you feel benefited by it.
7 ways anxiety might be slowly eating away your lifeSolanki Abhishek
Obesity is not merely indulging into overeating and having a bulky body. It is more like a gateway to severe health diseases. Obese people should not be ridiculed; rather they should be taken care off. Obesity is calculated according to the body mass index (BMI) of a person’s body. Dividing the weight of a person in pounds by the square of his height in meters we get the BMI calculated. If an individual’s BMI is 30 or above then he falls under the category of an obese. Click here this link for more knowledge:https://8bb3dcw6ci-dsnc0a8-qydau4q.hop.clickbank.net/
7 Ways Anxiety Might Be Slowly Eating Away Your Life.pdfhealthfitness12
Experts define physical fitness as “one's ability to execute daily activities with optimal performance, endurance, and strength with the management of disease, fatigue, and stress and reduced sedentary behavior.” This description goes beyond being able to run
Overthinking || How to stop worrying, overcome anxiety and eliminate all nega...Selinmohanty1
ow to Stop Worrying and Eliminate the Negative Thinking in less of one month
Overthinking is more than just a nuisance--studies show thinking too much can take a serious toll on your well-being.
Here are the three dangers of being an overthinker:
It increases your chances of mental illness.
It interferes with problem-solving.
It disturbs your sleep.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yhpmrEDbXA
1000 words, 2 referencesBegin conducting research now on your .docxvrickens
1000 words, 2 references
Begin conducting research now on your company/client. After brainstorming on your company’s industry and after your preliminary research information-gathering techniques, create a research profile proposal to deliver to your company’s management that includes the following:
State the specific research goal for the proposal.
What is the company’s current business problem?
Who is the company’s competition?
Establish your population sample for researching customer attitudes and behaviors about the company and product.
Identify the steps in the research process.
.
1000 words only due by 5314 at 1200 estthis is a second part to.docxvrickens
1000 words only due by 5/3/14 at 12:00 est
this is a second part to this assignment due at a different time
Part 1
Your fast-food franchise has been cleared for business in all 4 countries (United Arab Emirates, Israel, Mexico, and China). You now have to start construction on your restaurants. The financing is coming from the United Arab Emirates, the materials are coming from Mexico and China, the engineering and technology are coming from Israel , and the labor will be hired locally within these countries by your management team from the United States. You invite all of the players to the headquarters in the United States for a big meeting to explain the project and get to know one another. The people seem to be staying with their own groups and not mingling.
What is the cultural phenomenon at play here (what is it called/ term)?
How do you explain the lack of intercultural communication and interaction?
What do you know about these cultures—specifically their economic, political, educational, and social systems—that could help you in getting them together?
What are some of the contrasting cultural values of these countries?
You are concerned about some of the language barriers as you start the meeting, particularly the fact that the United States is a low-context country, and some of the countries present are high-context countries. Furthermore, you only speak English, and you do not have an interpreter present.
How will this affect the presentation?
What are some of the issues you should be concerned about regarding verbal and nonverbal language for this group?
What strategy would you use to begin to have everyone develop a relationship with each other that will help ease future negotiations, development, and implementation?
.
1000 words with refernceBased on the American constitution,” wh.docxvrickens
1000 words with refernce
Based on the American “constitution,” which internal and external stakeholders, in the policy making process, possess “constitutional legitimacy” for their role in making public policy? Do entities with explicit power have more influence than those entities with implied powers in making public policy? Should they? Why or why not?
1000 words with reference
Accountability and ethical conduct are important concepts in public administration. In Tennessee, recent political stakeholders and some bureaucratic stakeholders have been caught up in various scandals (Operation Tennessee Waltz, Operation Rocky Top etc.). Based on the readings, what could Tennessee do to make political and bureaucratic functionaries more accountable?
.
10.1. In a t test for a single sample, the samples mean.docxvrickens
10.1. In a
t
test for a single sample
,
the sample
'
s mean is
c
o
m
par
ed to the
population
.
10.2. When we use a paired-samples
t
test to compare the pret
es
t and
p
ostt
est
scores for a group of 45 people, the degrees of freedom
(
df
)
ar
e _____.
10.3. If we conduct a
t
test for independent samples
,
and
n1
=
32 and
n2
=
35,
the degrees of freedom
(df)
are
_____.
10.4
.
A researcher wants to study the effect of college education on p
eo
p
le's
earning by comparing the annual salaries of a randomly
-
selecte
d g
ro
up
of 100 college graduates to the annual salaries of 100 randoml
y-selected
group of people whose highest level of education is high
schoo
l.
To
compare the mean annual salaries of the two groups
,
th
e resea
r
cher
should use a
t
test for
______.
10.5. A training coordinator wants to determine the effectiveness
of a program
that makes extensive use of educational technology when t
raining new
employees. She compares the scores of her new emplo
yees who
completed the training on a nationally-normed test to th
e
me
a
n
s
c
ore of
all
those in the country who took the same test.
The a
p
pro
p
riate
statistical test the training coordinator should use for h
er analysis
i
s the
t
test for ______.
10
.
6. As part of the process to develop two parallel forms o
f a q
u
es
t
io
nn
aire
,
the persons creating the questionnaire may admin
i
st
e
r b
o
th
f
or
ms to a
group of students, and then use a
t
test for ______ s
a
mpl
es
t
o com
p
are
the mean scores on the two forms
.
Circle the
correct
answer:
10.7. A difference
o
f 4 points between two
homogeneous group
s
is lik
e
ly to
be
more/less
statistically significant than the
s
ame
d
i
ffe
r
e
n
ce (of 4
points) between two
heterogeneous
groups
,
when all fou
r g
r
o
up
s are
taking completing the same survey and have appro
x
im
a
tel
y t
h
e same
number of subjects.
10.8. A difference of 3 points on a 100-item test taken b
y t
w
o g
rou
ps is likely to be
more/less
statistically significant than a difference of 3 po
i
nt
s on a 30-item test taken by the sa
m
e
t
w
o g
r
oups.
10.9 When
a
t
test for paired samples is u
s
ed to
c
ompare th
e
p
re
t
est an
d
the posttest
means
,
the number of pretest scores i
s
the
same as/different than
the number of
po
s
t-t
e
st scor
e
s.
10.10. W
hen
w
e
w
ant to compar
e w
h
e
th
e
r female
s
' scor
es
on th
e
G
MAT are
di
fferent f
rom males' scores
,
we should use a
t
test for
paired samples/independen
t
samples
.
10
.11 In studi
e
s
w
h
e
re the alte
r
nati
ve (
r
es
ear
c
h
)
h
y
poth
es
i
s
i
s
directiona
l
,
t
h
e critical va
lu
es
for
a
one tailed test/two-tailed test
should b
e us
ed t
o
d
e
t
erm
i
ne the
l
e
vel o
f
signi
fi
cance (i
.
e.
,
the
p
va
lue).
10.12 W
h
e
n
t
h
e
alt
e
rnati
ve
h
y
poth
e
si
s
is: H
A
: u1=u2
,
the c
ri
ti
ca
l
v
alu
es for
one
tailed test/
two-tailed
test
should b
e
u
se.
100 WORDS OR MOREConsider your past experiences either as a studen.docxvrickens
100 WORDS OR MORE
Consider your past experiences either as a student, early child care professional, or teacher. Describe a creative episode similar to the two boys who found a frog in the text (Creativity and the Arts with Young Children, p.309), when the teacher (maybe you) seized the opportunity (the teachable moment) to inspire the children to branch out using their imagination, creativity, and interests. Why do you think this was such a memorable moment?
WHAT WAS OBSERVED?
Two boys were exploring the outdoors and found a small frog. The teacher recognized their high interest and determined that this was an appropriate topic for a study. Their experience in nature provided the interest and stimulus for a long-term project on frogs. The teacher demonstrated her belief that this study could not only include informational learning but also be enriched by the use of the arts. She didn't know a lot about frogs, so she joined the children in looking for information about them. Stories provided the content for the drama about frogs, and the music selection encouraged listening and moving to the “frog music.” A group mural was created through the collaboration of several children, who created visual representations of the frog's environment. Another group of children investigated building a habitat for the frog in their classroom aquarium. All of the children were involved in active learning and used methods that matched their interests. At the conclusion of the study, the children shared their learning by making a giant book about frogs, creating a song about frogs, and demonstrating the development of the frog aquarium that emulated its outdoor environment. Finally, they returned the frog to its home, which led to their understanding that it needed to live in its natural habitat.
.
1000 to 2000 words Research Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of.docxvrickens
1000 to 2000 words
Research Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and discuss why it is so significant.
Your paper should discuss the state of race relations in the United States prior to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It should also discuss the political environment that led to the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Additionally, please include a response to the following in your analysis:
What is the purpose of this law?
What groups does it protect? What groups does it not protect?
How were the Jim Crow laws tested during this time period?
What is the U.S. Supreme Court case
Plessy v. Ferguson
about? Is the rule established in the Plessy case still the rule today?
.
1000 word essay MlA Format.. What is our personal responsibility tow.docxvrickens
1000 word essay MlA Format.. What is our personal responsibility toward the natural world, toward what we term our natural resources? Use one of these readings and interpet it to the question reflecting your answer. Add perentheses when using quotes.
“May’s Lion” (Le Guin)
“Deer Among Cattle” (Dickey)
“Meditation at Oyster River” (Roethke)
“The Call of the Wild” (Snyder)
“Eco-Defense” (Abbey)
“The Present” (Dillard)
“Time and the Machine” (Huxley)
Mending wall(Frost)
.
100 wordsGoods and services that are not sold in markets.docxvrickens
100 words
Goods and services that are not sold in markets, such as food produced and consumed at home and some household articles, are generally not included in GDP.
How might the absence of these values mislead one when comparing the economic well-being of the United States and India?
What other items are not included in GDP and how might their exclusion impact policy?
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100 word responseChicago style citingLink to textbook httpbo.docxvrickens
100 word response
Chicago style citing
Link to textbook: http://books.google.com/books?id=zutRiJJMBQYC&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false
Article is attached
The overwhelming similarities between the articles are perception of identity through self-focus or self-identity through culture. Mulvaney tells us “truth is socially constructed through language and other symbol systems” (Mulvaney, 222). And as an example, it was just such self-focus that landed Galileo in jail by asserting that the universe was sun-centered as opposed to earth centered. The people of that time had socially constructed their own truths based on their perceptions of that time, although we now know that both were incorrect. It was from this perception of correctness that power was assumed and asserted by the majority, which in this case led to Galileo’s arrest (Mulvaney 2004).
Jandt touches on an interesting fact regarding existentialism, the idea of the “other” and the idea that both the observer and the observed are changed in the process. He states, “that the observer is not independent of the observed; the observed is in some sense “created” or changed or both by the act of observation” (Jandt, 212). It is from this dynamic that Jandt speaks of that we can see the formation of societal roles, i.e. the roles of those in positions of power and those in a subservient roles.
The interesting culmination of the information from all three articles is that the process is not a stagnant one, but rather one that can, and often times does change. Through introspective analysis, asking ourselves the question “Who am I?” we can embrace our cultural differences and through the acceptance of our individual qualities can take back some of the power that was perhaps lost (Jandt, 210). For example, take the labels “Feminist” and “Gay” along with “queer” and “Chicano,” which were certainly negative when created, have been transformed into positive labels embraced by those within each perspective community (Jandt 2004).
Works Cited
Jandt, Fred E., Dolores V. Tanno. "Decoding Domination, Encoding Self-Determination - Intercultural Comminication Research Process." In Intercultural Communication: A Global Reader, by Fred E. Jandt, 205 - 221. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 2004.
Mulvaney, Becky Michelle. "Gender Differences in Communication - An Intercultural Experience." In Intercultural Communication - A Global Reader, by Fred E. Jandt, 221 - 229. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 2004.
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100 word response to the followingBoth perspectives that we rea.docxvrickens
100 word response to the following:
Both perspectives that we read referenced Hofstede’s work. Merrit and Helmreich focused closely on Hofstede’s principles of individualism and power distance. They studied how American flight crews differed in these areas from Asian flight crews. The American flight crews proved to have much more individualism than the Asian, although power distance perceptions were mixed between pilots and flight attendants, with the flight attendants perceiving more power distance than the pilots (in Jandt, 2004). Aldridge also focused on individualism and power distance, with regards to the American culture. It is Aldridge’s thesis that it is the idea of the “natural rights of man” that underpins American culture (in Jandt, 2004, p.94). The natural rights of man are a value that is espoused by a culture with high individuality and low power distance. If man has natural rights, then he is an independent being, and in order to value all men, we must have a lower perception of the distance between those of high status and those with lower status.
I enjoyed both perspectives. I felt that the aviation study was very strong, as they were careful to make sure that they accounted for cultural differences in their measurements. I agree with the authors that although they confirmed some sociological theories and demonstrated that flight crews tend to follow their cultural norms, the study is likely skewed. In order to understand how different flight crews behave from standard Asian social norms, the surveys would have to be done from an Asian perspective and even then, there is not just one Asian culture, so that should be taken into account. We likely miss many of the subtle differences between Asian flight crews and their home culture, by not having a sensitive test to that culture.
My main complaint about Aldridge’s perspective is a lack of strong comparison to other cultures. I felt that the argument that American culture is strong based on our belief in natural human rights would have been better served by showing more comparison to other cultures that also espouse this value and/or to cultures that clearly do not. The comparison to Nazi culture was a start, but one that gets kind of old after a while, and is not a culture that is as current as I would prefer in a comparison.
Readings:
Texbook: Jandt, Fred E. (editor) Intercultural Communication: A Global Reader. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. 2004
“Human Factors on the Flight Deck: The Influence of National Culture,” Merritt and Helmreich, Jandt pages 13-27
“What is the Basis of American Culture,” Aldridge, Jandt pages 84-98
100 word response to the following
The perspectives learned this week relate to the evolution of human beings and their ability to evolve and survive. As it was state in Aldridge’s readings human beings have the capability to communicate and this ability makes them superior, than animals. All human beings came from the same land and eventually with th.
100 word response to the followingThe point that Penetito is tr.docxvrickens
100 word response to the following:
The point that Penetito is trying to make is that it is important for indigenous cultures to survive. He uses the case of the education of the Maori in New Zealand as an example to exhibit the declining influence of the culture because of the influence of the more dominant British culture. Penetito strengthens his argument by referencing problems that come with colonization and the negative on natives, most notably, the educational system. By attacking this one issue and using facts about the culture to enrich the discussion helps to focus his message that cultures being dominated is a bad thing. The Maori educational system has been moulded to fit the mainstream framework rather than a Maori one (Jandt, 2004, p. 173) and this creates many of the problems and contributes to the extinction of culture. He could use other examples of how colonizing countries leads to the destruction of less important areas of indigiounous cultures such as dress, language, or food in order to strengthen his arguments about the educational systems. The lack of attention in the educational field is having lasting effects on Maoris living in New Zealand and any more information he could use to support this would be important to know. Also examples of educational systems in other colonized countries, to compare and contrast them to New Zealand's would also help to influence readers. He references a report done by the Ministry of Maori Development which states that, "disparities between Maori and non-Maori in a variety of economic sectors such as employment and income" (Jandt, 2004, p. 181). The Maori are just an example of one culture that is fighting for survival out of many. The problem is that through colonization, diversity dwindles. Penetito's writing is valid for all endangered languages because all cultures can use it as a template and useful knowledge for preserving their cultures before they are completely gone.
Textbook: Jandt, F. (2004). Intercultural Communication:A Global Reader. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications Inc.
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100 word response to the following:
I would like to ask a provocative question, or two.
Given that all of the indigenous languages in the USA are on the brink of extinction, should there be federal funding to protect these languages and these cultures?
Along the same lines, what do you think of English-only initiatives? Do these aid or hurt American culture?
http://www.endangeredlanguages.com/
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100 word response to the folowingMust use Chicago style citing an.docxvrickens
100 word response to the folowing:
Must use Chicago style citing and the textbook: Jandt, Fred E. (editor) Intercultural Communication: A Global Reader. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. 2004. Part I Cultural Values
Culture has many different meanings anywhere from historical perspectives to behavioral perspectives to different traditions that have been passed down from generations to generations.
Levi Strauss was interested in structuralism which he defined as “the search for unusual harmonies” (pg 1 Jandt). “There are many more human cultures than human races”, human cultures are counted by the thousands and human races are divided up by units.
The collaboration between cultures is trying to compare the old world with the new world. “No society is intrinsically cumulative. Cumulative history is the way of life of cultures and how they get a long together. All cultural contributions are divided into two groups; isolated acquisitions or features, the features are important but at the same time they are limited. The second group is systemized contributions which is how each society has chosen to express human aspirations. According to Strauss the true contribution of a culture is its difference from others.
Geert Hostede looks at business cultures and states that culture may be divided into four categories symbols, heroes, rituals and values. “Understanding people means understanding their background from which their present and future behavior can be predicted”. There are also four national cultural differences: 1.power distance-the population from equal to extremely unequal 2. Individualism -people have learned to act as individuals rather than in a group 3.masculinity- assertiveness or masculine values prevail over the feminine ones 4.uncertainty avoidance- people in a country prefer structured over unstructured situations.
References:
Jandt, E. Fred. Intercultural Communications. Thousand Oaks; Sage Publications. 2004. Print.
100 word response to the folowing:
Must use Chicago style citing and the textbook: Jandt, Fred E. (editor) Intercultural Communication: A Global Reader. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. 2004 Part I Cultural Values
Our culture is something that has been ingrained in us from an early age, and is largely unconscious. Levi-Strauss says that while certain biological traits were selected for us in the beginning of evolution, as soon as culture came into being, those biological traits were influenced by the dynamics of culture (Jandt, p. 6). Essentially, we are not able to separate ourselves from culture, and to do so would be to ruin what is wonderful and unique about each culture. According to Hofstede, all cultures have their processes, and their values. While things like symbols and rituals in a culture vary greatly, he says; “Values represent the deepest level of culture. (Jandt, p. 9)”
Because culture is deeply ingrained in us, all of the variants that Levi-Strauss and Hofstede discussed must be taken in account when dealing wit.
100 word response using textbook Getlein, Mark. Living with Art, 9t.docxvrickens
100 word response using textbook: Getlein, Mark. Living with Art, 9th Ed., New York: McGraw-Hill, 2010. Citing in MLA Format:
Between the Baroque and Rococo era, according to Getlein in Living with Art 2010, Rococo is a development and extension of the baroque style. Rococo is not only a play on the word baroque, but also French for rocks and shells. Rococo is known for its ornate style and several points of contrast. Baroque on the other hand was an art of cathedrals and palaces (Getlein p. 397). The Mirror Room of the Amailienburg in Nymphenburg is a great example of the Rococo style of art with its gentle pastels, overall intimacy, multiple mirrors and its illusion of the sky and with that baroque is large in scale and rococo is lighter. According to Getlein p. 398, Rococo architecture first originated in France but was soon exported, some examples of this type of art are found in Germany. Hall of mirrors on page 392 by Charles Le Brun is an example of baroque art, it is a more intense piece of work that is more vibrant and energetic vice the lighter decoration s used in The Mirror Room.
100 word response using textbook: Getlein, Mark. Living with Art, 9th Ed., New York: McGraw-Hill, 2010. Citing in MLA Format:
The Renaissance covered the period from 1400 to 1600, which brought numerous changes that included new techniques in art, the way art was viewed, and how people viewed themselves. The term renaissance means "rebirth" and it refers to the renewal of interest in Roman and Greek cultures. During the period scholars who called themselves humanists believed in the pursuit of knowledge and striving to reach their full creative and intellectual potential. This new way of thinking had many impacts for art during this period. Artists became interested in observing the natural world and studied new techniques on how to accurately depict it. Various techniques were developed such as the effect of light known as chiaroscuro; noting that distant objects appeared smaller than nearer ones they developed linear perspective; seeing how detail and colored blurred with distance, they developed atmospheric perspective. (Getlein page 361) The nude also reappeared in art, for the body was one of God's most noble creations; an example of this can be seen in figure 16.8 the statue of David, by the artist Michelangelo. (Getlein page 368) The primary difference between the Renaissance and the prior period of time was that artists were no longer viewed craftsmen, they were now recognized as intellectuals. (Getlein page 362)
The Northern Renaissance developed more gradually than in Italy. Northern artists did not live among the ruins of Rome nor did they share the Italians’ sense of a personal link to the creators of the Classical past; thus affecting the focus and characteristics between the two cultures. (Getlein page 374) Renaissance artists in northern Europe focused more on small details of the visible world, such as decoration or the outer appearanc.
100 word response to the following. Must cite properly in MLA.Un.docxvrickens
100 word response to the following. Must cite properly in MLA.
Unlike the Egyptian culture that created statues of themselves as gods and pharaohs. Muslims did not worship false idols or statues so no pictures or statues or gods are present in their mosques. According to Geitlein (2010), “The Qur’an contains a stern warning against the worship of idols, and in time this led to a doctrine forbidding images of animate beings in religious contexts” (p. 410). Instead the Muslims of the Islam culture used geometry and plants to design buildings, like the Egyptian pyramids, Muslims built beautiful mosques with grand designs. Islam became a world religion, like Christians, they needed a place of worship and prayer. They also used fine textiles, sun dried brick, and ceramics to create their designs. An example would be the popular Cordoba mosque of Spain. A lot of mosques use the arch and dome technique like that of the Romans and Byzantine architecture. Arabic script also became popular and appeared inside the mosque temples. Islam used calligraphy as art and to illustrate writing. Egyptians were also big on scripting but theirs was called hieroglyphics, which not only had letters, but pictures were a big part of their writing system as well. The Egyptians didn’t technically worship false idols at all times, at some times they had statues created of themselves but there wasn’t really a religion in Egypt until the one god religion began there. Egypt gave you a visual of the life and world of Egypt, Islam leaves it more up to the imagination with no pictures of what any of the past history looked like.
References
Getlein, Mark. Living With Art. 9th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2010. Print.
100 word response to the following. Must cite properly in MLA:
Realism was a mid to late 19th century movement in which artist should represent the world at it is regardless of artistic and social understandings. Realist were seeking to free art from social regulation and depicting how society shapes the lives of people (Little, page 80).
In his Fur Traders Descending the Missouri, American-born George Caleb Bingham a self taught artist and the first major painter to live and work west of the Mississippi River illustrates the realism of life for a French trapper and his son on the Missouri River hunting from a dugout canoe. The painting is simple to understand, it represents the calmness of a time to me when life was simple.
Abstract Expressionism was a movement that got its start following World War TWO. Developed in New York and often referred to as the New York School or Action Painting it is characterized to depict universal emotions. Additionally this was the first American movement to gain international recognition (Little, page 122).
Jackson Pollock’s perfected Abstract Expressionism through his “drip technique”, a technique in which you apply paint to a canvas on the floor indirectly from a brush. Pollock the youngest of five boys in a family that moved a.
100 original, rubric, word count and required readings must be incl.docxvrickens
100% original, rubric, word count and required readings must be included
This is 3 assignments in one. The final is all the assignments from M1A2- M5A2
The assignments are highlighted in yellow and the rubics are in red and attached for M3A2 and M5A2
Assignment 2: LASA 1—Preliminary Strategy Audit
The end result of this course is developing a strategy audit. In this module, you will outline and draft a preliminary framework for your final product. This provides you with the opportunity to get feedback before a final submission.
In
Module 1
, you reviewed the instructions for the capstone strategy audit assignment and grading rubric due in
Module 5
. By now, you have completed the following steps:
Identified the organization for your report
Interviewed at least one key mid-level or senior-level manager
Created a market position analysis
Conducted an external environmental scan in preparation of your final report and presentation
In this assignment, you will generate a preliminary strategy audit in preparation for your final course project.
Prepare a report that includes the following:
In preparation for your course project, prepare the preliminary strategy audit using the tools and framework you have focused on so far including the following:
Analysis of the company value proposition, market position, and competitive advantage
External environmental scan/five forces analysis
Identify the most important (5–7) strategic issues facing the organization or business unit.
You may modify the strategic issues in your final report based on the additional analysis you will conduct in the next module as well as the feedback you receive on this paper from your instructor.
Keep in mind that it is important to look at the strategic issue(s) from more than just one perspective in the business unit or company—speak to or research the issue from more than one angle to offer a 360-degree approach that does not cause more problems or issues.
Strategic issues arise from a mismatch between internal capabilities and external trends such that important opportunities are not being pursued or significant external threats are not being addressed under the current strategy.
Include a preliminary set of recommended tactics for improving your company’s strategic alignment and operating performance.
You may modify these recommendations in your final report based on the additional analysis you will conduct in the next module as well as the feedback you receive on this paper from your instructor.
Keep in mind that recommendations can include, but are not limited to, tactics in marketing, branding, alliances, mergers and acquisitions, integration, product development, diversification or divestiture, and globalization. If you recommend your company to go global, you must include a supply chain analysis and an analysis of your firm’s global capabilities.
Write your report as though you are a consultant to your company and are addressing the executive officers of this comp.
100 or more wordsFor this Discussion imagine that you are speaki.docxvrickens
100 or more words
For this Discussion imagine that you are speaking to a group of parents or early childcare professionals. Identify the characteristics of the group so that your readers know who is being addressed. Explain to the group why play is so important to children, including:
How and what children learn through play
Give examples of how they can encourage and support play for children
.
10. (TCOs 1 and 10) Apple, Inc. a cash basis S corporation in Or.docxvrickens
10.
(TCOs 1 and 10) Apple, Inc. a cash basis S corporation in Orange, Texas, formerly was a C corporation. Apple has the following assets and liabilities on January 1, 2010, the date the S election is made:
Adjusted Basis
Fair Market Value
Cash
$200,000
$200,000
Accounts receivable
-0-
$105,000
Equipment
$110,000
$100,000
Land
$1,800,000
$2,500,000
Accounts payable
-0-
$110,000
During 2010, Apple collects the accounts receivable and pays the accounts payable. The land is sold for $3 million, and taxable income for the year is $590,000. What is Apple's built-in gains tax?
(Points : 5)
.
10-12 slides with Notes APA Style ReferecesThe prosecutor is getti.docxvrickens
10-12 slides with Notes APA Style Refereces
The prosecutor is getting feedback from local law enforcement officers explaining that they are discouraged from making arrests in cases of domestic violence and child abuse. They claim that they have been either not making arrests in domestic violence situations or arresting both parties when they go out on a call. It seems that abused women often go back to the abusers, and children who get removed from the homes where they have been abused often return after removal. These occurrences have been especially demoralizing to law enforcement.
One of your jobs in working as a victim witness assistant is to help educate law enforcement on the nature and behaviors involved in domestic violence and child abuse. The prosecutor’s office has decided that you should present each of these topics for the next training session:
Topic 1: Domestic violence:
Your goal is to educate law enforcement to use best practices in the investigation of domestic abuse cases. Include the following topics:
How to approach a domestic violence situation when responding to an emergency call
when the parties should be separated
how to interview parties
what information needs to be in the report and why
how best to help a victim
what laws protect victims, including the use of protection orders
why victims return to abusers
length of time it may take to stay away from their abusers
Arrests
the legal standard needed to make an arrest in a domestic violence case
What evidence should be collected at the arrest?
Are dual arrests effective law enforcement?
how to assist domestic violence victims
reluctant victims
help for victims
Topic 2: Child Abuse:
Your goal will be to educate law enforcement about the dynamics of abuse and neglect cases. Include the following topics:
signs of child abuse and categories (physical, sexual, emotional)
difference between abuse and neglect
legal description of neglect
use of guardian
ad litems
the legal standards that must be met in removal from the home
termination of parental rights
requirements of Indian Child Welfare Act (ICWA)
role of court-appointed special advocates (CASA) in child abuse and neglect cases
role of social services in abuse and neglect cases
For more information on creating PowerPoint Presentations, please visit the Microsoft Office Applications Lab.
.
10-12 page paer onDiscuss the advantages and problems with trailer.docxvrickens
10-12 page paer on
Discuss the advantages and problems with trailers for temporary housing, the issues for FEMA, and recommendations for improvements to the housing program. Discuss how Public Assistance was used in New York for Hurricane Sandy recovery, and why this was so different than previous housing policies.
.
10. Assume that you are responsible for decontaminating materials in.docxvrickens
10. Assume that you are responsible for decontaminating materials in a large hospital.
How would you sterilize each of the following? Briefly justify your answers.
a. A mattress used by a patient with bubonic plague
b. Intravenous glucose-saline solutions
c. Used disposable syringe
d. Tissues taken from patients
.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
How to Create Map Views in the Odoo 17 ERPCeline George
The map views are useful for providing a geographical representation of data. They allow users to visualize and analyze the data in a more intuitive manner.
The Art Pastor's Guide to Sabbath | Steve ThomasonSteve Thomason
What is the purpose of the Sabbath Law in the Torah. It is interesting to compare how the context of the law shifts from Exodus to Deuteronomy. Who gets to rest, and why?
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
How libraries can support authors with open access requirements for UKRI fund...
IntroductionEvery author, I suppose, has in mind a set.docx
1. Introduction
Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers
of his or her work could benefit
from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler,
where opinions are shared and
gossip is exchanged. I hope to enrich the vocabulary that people
use when they talk about the
judgments and choices of others, the company’s new policies, or
a colleague’s investment
decisions. Why be concerned with gossip? Because it is much
easier, as well as far more
enjoyable, to identify and label the mistakes of others than to
recognize our own. Questioning what
we believe and want is difficult at the best of times, and
especially difficult when we most need to
do it, but we can benefit from the informed opinions of others.
Many of us spontaneously anticipate
how friends and colleagues will evaluate our choices; the
quality and content of these anticipated
judgments therefore matters. The expectation of intelligent
gossip is a powerful motive for serious
self-criticism, more powerful than New Year resolutions to
improve one’s decision making at
work and at home.
To be a good diagnostician, a physician needs to acquire a large
set of labels for diseases, each
of which binds an idea of the illness and its symptoms, possible
antecedents and causes, possible
2. developments and consequences, and possible interventions to
cure or mitigate the illness.
Learning medicine consists in part of learning the language of
medicine. A deeper understanding of
judgments and choices also requires a richer vocabulary than is
available in everyday language.
The hope for informed gossip is that there are distinctive
patterns in the errors people make.
Systematic errors are known as biases, and they recur
predictably in particular circumstances.
When the handsome and confident speaker bounds onto the
stage, for example, you can anticipate
that the audience will judge his comments more favorably than
he deserves. The availability of a
diagnostic label for this bias—the halo effect—makes it easier
to anticipate, recognize, and
understand.
When you are asked what you are thinking about, you can
normally answer. You believe you
know what goes on in your mind, which often consists of one
conscious thought leading in an
orderly way to another. But that is not the only way the mind
works, nor indeed is that the typical
way. Most impressions and thoughts arise in your conscious
experience without your knowing how
they got there. You cannot tracryd>e how you came to the belief
that there is a lamp on the desk in
front of you, or how you detected a hint of irritation in your
spouse’s voice on the telephone, or
how you managed to avoid a threat on the road before you
became consciously aware of it. The
mental work that produces impressions, intuitions, and many
decisions goes on in silence in our
mind.
3. Much of the discussion in this book is about biases of intuition.
However, the focus on error
does not denigrate human intelligence, any more than the
attention to diseases in medical texts
denies good health. Most of us are healthy most of the time, and
most of our judgments and actions
are appropriate most of the time. As we navigate our lives, we
normally allow ourselves to be
guided by impressions and feelings, and the confidence we have
in our intuitive beliefs and
preferences is usually justified. But not always. We are often
confident even when we are wrong,
and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors
than we are.
So this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the
ability to identify and understand
errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually in
ourselves, by providing a richer
and more precise language to discuss them. In at least some
cases, an accurate diagnosis may
suggest an intervention to limit the damage that bad judgments
and choices often cause.
7
Two Systems
The Characters of the Story
To observe your mind in automatic mode, glance at the image
below.
Figure 1
4. Your experience as you look at the woman’s face seamlessly
combines what we normally call
seeing and intuitive thinking. As surely and quickly as you saw
that the young woman’s hair is
dark, you knew she is angry. Furthermore, what you saw
extended into the future. You sensed that
this woman is about to say some very unkind words, probably in
a loud and strident voice. A
premonition of what she was going to do next came to mind
automatically and effortlessly. You did
not intend to assess her mood or to anticipate what she might
do, and your reaction to the picture
did not have the feel of something you did. It just happened to
you. It was an instance of fast
thinking.
Now look at the following problem:
17 × 24
You knew immediately that this is a multiplication problem, and
probably knew that you could
solve it, with paper and pencil, if not without. You also had
some vague intuitive knowledge of the
range of possible results. You would be quick to recognize that
both 12,609 and 123 are
implausible. Without spending some time on the problem,
however, you would not be certain that
the answer is not 568. A precise solution did not come to mind,
and you felt that you could choose
whether or not to engage in the computation. If you have not
done so yet, you should attempt the
multiplication problem now, completing at least part of it.
You experienced slow thinking as you proceeded through a
sequence of steps. You first
5. retrieved from memory the cognitive program for multiplication
that you learned in school, then
you implemented it. Carrying out the computation was a strain.
You felt the burden of holding much
material in memory, as you needed to keep track of where you
were and of where you were going,
while holding on to the intermediate result. The process was
mental work: deliberate, effortful,
and orderly—a prototype of slow thinking. The computation
was not only an event in your mind;
your body was also involved. Your muscles tensed up, your
blood pressure rose, and your heart
17
rate increased. Someone looking closely at your eyes while you
tackled this problem would have
seen your pupils dilate. Your pupils contracted back to normal
size as soon as you ended your
work—when you found the answer (which is 408, by the way)
or when you gave up.
Two Systems
Psychologists have been intensely interested for several decades
in the two modagee fi Pn="cees
of thinking evoked by the picture of the angry woman and by
the multiplication problem, and have
offered many labels for them. I adopt terms originally proposed
by the psychologists Keith
Stanovich and Richard West, and will refer to two systems in
the mind, System 1 and System 2.
System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no
6. effort and no sense of voluntary
control.
System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities
that demand it, including
complex computations. The operations of System 2 are often
associated with the subjective
experience of agency, choice, and concentration.
The labels of System 1 and System 2 are widely used in
psychology, but I go further than most in
this book, which you can read as a psychodrama with two
characters.
When we think of ourselves, we identify with System 2, the
conscious, reasoning self that has
beliefs, makes choices, and decides what to think about and
what to do. Although System 2
believes itself to be where the action is, the automatic System 1
is the hero of the book. I describe
System 1 as effortlessly originating impressions and feelings
that are the main sources of the
explicit beliefs and deliberate choices of System 2. The
automatic operations of System 1 generate
surprisingly complex patterns of ideas, but only the slower
System 2 can construct thoughts in an
orderly series of steps. I also describe circumstances in which
System 2 takes over, overruling the
freewheeling impulses and associations of System 1. You will
be invited to think of the two
systems as agents with their individual abilities, limitations, and
functions.
In rough order of complexity, here are some examples of the
automatic activities that are
attributed to System 1:
7. Detect that one object is more distant than another.
Orient to the source of a sudden sound.
Complete the phrase “bread and…”
Make a “disgust face” when shown a horrible picture.
Detect hostility in a voice.
Answer to 2 + 2 = ?
Read words on large billboards.
Drive a car on an empty road.
Find a strong move in chess (if you are a chess master).
Understand simple sentences.
Recognize that a “meek and tidy soul with a passion for detail”
resembles an occupational
18
stereotype.
All these mental events belong with the angry woman—they
occur automatically and require little
or no effort. The capabilities of System 1 include innate skills
that we share with other animals.
We are born prepared to perceive the world around us,
recognize objects, orient attention, avoid
losses, and fear spiders. Other mental activities become fast and
automatic through prolonged
practice. System 1 has learned associations between ideas (the
capital of France?); it has also
learned skills such as reading and understanding nuances of
social situations. Some skills, such as
finding strong chess moves, are acquired only by specialized
experts. Others are widely shared.
Detecting the similarity of a personality sketch to an
occupatiohein occupatnal stereotype requires
8. broad knowledge of the language and the culture, which most of
us possess. The knowledge is
stored in memory and accessed without intention and without
effort.
Several of the mental actions in the list are completely
involuntary. You cannot refrain from
understanding simple sentences in your own language or from
orienting to a loud unexpected
sound, nor can you prevent yourself from knowing that 2 + 2 =
4 or from thinking of Paris when the
capital of France is mentioned. Other activities, such as
chewing, are susceptible to voluntary
control but normally run on automatic pilot. The control of
attention is shared by the two systems.
Orienting to a loud sound is normally an involuntary operation
of System 1, which immediately
mobilizes the voluntary attention of System 2. You may be able
to resist turning toward the source
of a loud and offensive comment at a crowded party, but even if
your head does not move, your
attention is initially directed to it, at least for a while. However,
attention can be moved away from
an unwanted focus, primarily by focusing intently on another
target.
The highly diverse operations of System 2 have one feature in
common: they require attention
and are disrupted when attention is drawn away. Here are some
examples:
Brace for the starter gun in a race.
Focus attention on the clowns in the circus.
Focus on the voice of a particular person in a crowded and
9. noisy room.
Look for a woman with white hair.
Search memory to identify a surprising sound.
Maintain a faster walking speed than is natural for you.
Monitor the appropriateness of your behavior in a social
situation.
Count the occurrences of the letter a in a page of text.
Tell someone your phone number.
Park in a narrow space (for most people except garage
attendants).
Compare two washing machines for overall value.
Fill out a tax form.
Check the validity of a complex logical argument.
In all these situations you must pay attention, and you will
perform less well, or not at all, if you
are not ready or if your attention is directed inappropriately.
System 2 has some ability to change
the way System 1 works, by programming the normally
automatic functions of attention and
memory. When waiting for a relative at a busy train station, for
example, you can set yourself at
19
will to look for a white-haired woman or a bearded man, and
thereby increase the likelihood of
detecting your relative from a distance. You can set your
memory to search for capital cities that
start with N or for French existentialist novels. And when you
rent a car at London’s Heathrow
Airport, the attendant will probably remind you that “we drive
on the left side of the road over
10. here.” In all these cases, you are asked to do something that
does not come naturally, and you will
find that the consistent maintenance of a set requires continuous
exertion of at least some effort.
The often-used phrase “pay attention” is apt: you dispose of a
limited budget of attention that
you can allocate to activities, and if you try to i>Cyou try tgo
beyond your budget, you will fail. It
is the mark of effortful activities that they interfere with each
other, which is why it is difficult or
impossible to conduct several at once. You could not compute
the product of 17 × 24 while making
a left turn into dense traffic, and you certainly should not try.
You can do several things at once, but
only if they are easy and undemanding. You are probably safe
carrying on a conversation with a
passenger while driving on an empty highway, and many parents
have discovered, perhaps with
some guilt, that they can read a story to a child while thinking
of something else.
Everyone has some awareness of the limited capacity of
attention, and our social behavior
makes allowances for these limitations. When the driver of a car
is overtaking a truck on a narrow
road, for example, adult passengers quite sensibly stop talking.
They know that distracting the
driver is not a good idea, and they also suspect that he is
temporarily deaf and will not hear what
they say.
Intense focusing on a task can make people effectively blind,
even to stimuli that normally attract
attention. The most dramatic demonstration was offered by
Christopher Chabris and Daniel
11. Simons in their book The Invisible Gorilla. They constructed a
short film of two teams passing
basketballs, one team wearing white shirts, the other wearing
black. The viewers of the film are
instructed to count the number of passes made by the white
team, ignoring the black players. This
task is difficult and completely absorbing. Halfway through the
video, a woman wearing a gorilla
suit appears, crosses the court, thumps her chest, and moves on.
The gorilla is in view for 9
seconds. Many thousands of people have seen the video, and
about half of them do not notice
anything unusual. It is the counting task—and especially the
instruction to ignore one of the teams
—that causes the blindness. No one who watches the video
without that task would miss the
gorilla. Seeing and orienting are automatic functions of System
1, but they depend on the allocation
of some attention to the relevant stimulus. The authors note that
the most remarkable observation of
their study is that people find its results very surprising. Indeed,
the viewers who fail to see the
gorilla are initially sure that it was not there—they cannot
imagine missing such a striking event.
The gorilla study illustrates two important facts about our
minds: we can be blind to the obvious,
and we are also blind to our blindness.
Plot Synopsis
The interaction of the two systems is a recurrent theme of the
book, and a brief synopsis of the plot
is in order. In the story I will tell, Systems 1 and 2 are both
active whenever we are awake. System
1 runs automatically and System 2 is normally in a comfortable
low-effort mode, in which only a
12. fraction of its capacity is engaged. System 1 continuously
generates suggestions for System 2:
impressions, intuitions, intentions, and feelings. If endorsed by
System 2, impressions and
intuitions turn into beliefs, and impulses turn into voluntary
actions. When all goes smoothly, which
is most of the time, System 2 adopts the suggestions of System
1 with little or no modification. You
generally believe your impressions and act on your desires, and
that is fine—usually.
When System 1 runs into difficulty, it calls on System 2 to
support more detailed and specific
20
processing that may solve the problem of the moment. System 2
is mobilized when a question
arises for which System 1 does not offer an answer, as probably
happened to you when you
encountered the multiplication problem 17 × 24. You can also
feel a surge of conscious attention
whenever you are surprised. System 2 is activ">< 2 is actated
when an event is detected that
violates the model of the world that System 1 maintains. In that
world, lamps do not jump, cats do
not bark, and gorillas do not cross basketball courts. The gorilla
experiment demonstrates that
some attention is needed for the surprising stimulus to be
detected. Surprise then activates and
orients your attention: you will stare, and you will search your
memory for a story that makes sense
of the surprising event. System 2 is also credited with the
continuous monitoring of your own
13. behavior—the control that keeps you polite when you are angry,
and alert when you are driving at
night. System 2 is mobilized to increased effort when it detects
an error about to be made.
Remember a time when you almost blurted out an offensive
remark and note how hard you worked
to restore control. In summary, most of what you (your System
2) think and do originates in your
System 1, but System 2 takes over when things get difficult, and
it normally has the last word.
The division of labor between System 1 and System 2 is highly
efficient: it minimizes effort and
optimizes performance. The arrangement works well most of the
time because System 1 is
generally very good at what it does: its models of familiar
situations are accurate, its short-term
predictions are usually accurate as well, and its initial reactions
to challenges are swift and
generally appropriate. System 1 has biases, however, systematic
errors that it is prone to make in
specified circumstances. As we shall see, it sometimes answers
easier questions than the one it
was asked, and it has little understanding of logic and statistics.
One further limitation of System 1
is that it cannot be turned off. If you are shown a word on the
screen in a language you know, you
will read it—unless your attention is totally focused elsewhere.
Conflict
Figure 2 is a variant of a classic experiment that produces a
conflict between the two systems. You
should try the exercise before reading on.
14. Figure 2
21
You were almost certainly successful in saying the correct
words in both tasks, and you surely
discovered that some parts of each task were much easier than
others. When you identified upper-
and lowercase, the left-hand column was easy and the right-
hand column caused you to slow down
and perhaps to stammer or stumble. When you named the
position of words, the left-hand column
was difficult and the right-hand column was much easier.
These tasks engage System 2, because saying “upper/lower” or
“right/left” is not what you
routinely do when looking down a column of words. One of the
things you did to set yourself for
the task was to program your memory so that the relevant words
(upper and lower for the first
task) were “on the tip of your tongue.” The prioritizing of the
chosen words is effective and the
mild temptation to read other words was fairly easy to resist
when you went through the first
column. But the second column was different, because it
contained words for which you were set,
and you could not ignore them. You were mostly able to
respond correctly, but overcoming the
competing response was a strain, and it slowed you down. You
experienced a conflict between a
task that you intended to carry out and an automatic response
that interfered with it.
15. Conflict between an automatic reaction and an intention to
conWhetion to ctrol it is common in
our lives. We are all familiar with the experience of trying not
to stare at the oddly dressed couple
at the neighboring table in a restaurant. We also know what it is
like to force our attention on a
boring book, when we constantly find ourselves returning to the
point at which the reading lost its
meaning. Where winters are hard, many drivers have memories
of their car skidding out of control
on the ice and of the struggle to follow well-rehearsed
instructions that negate what they would
naturally do: “Steer into the skid, and whatever you do, do not
touch the brakes!” And every human
being has had the experience of not telling someone to go to
hell. One of the tasks of System 2 is to
overcome the impulses of System 1. In other words, System 2 is
in charge of self-control.
Illusions
To appreciate the autonomy of System 1, as well as the
distinction between impressions and
beliefs, take a good look at figure 3.
This picture is unremarkable: two horizontal lines of different
lengths, with fins appended,
pointing in different directions. The bottom line is obviously
longer than the one above it. That is
what we all see, and we naturally believe what we see. If you
have already encountered this
image, however, you recognize it as the famous Müller-Lyer
illusion. As you can easily confirm by
measuring them with a ruler, the horizontal lines are in fact
identical in length.
16. Figure 3
22
Now that you have measured the lines, you—your System 2, the
conscious being you call “I”—
have a new belief: you know that the lines are equally long. If
asked about their length, you will
say what you know. But you still see the bottom line as longer.
You have chosen to believe the
measurement, but you cannot prevent System 1 from doing its
thing; you cannot decide to see the
lines as equal, although you know they are. To resist the
illusion, there is only one thing you can
do: you must learn to mistrust your impressions of the length of
lines when fins are attached to
them. To implement that rule, you must be able to recognize the
illusory pattern and recall what you
know about it. If you can do this, you will never again be fooled
by the Müller-Lyer illusion. But
you will still see one line as longer than the other.
Not all illusions are visual. There are illusions of thought,
which we call cognitive illusions.
As a graduate student, I attended some courses on the art and
science of psychotherapy. During one
of these lectures, our teacher imparted a morsel of clinical
wisdom. This is what he told us: “You
will from time to time meet a patient who shares a disturbing
tale of multiple mistakes in his
previous treatment. He has been seen by several clinicians, and
all failed him. The patient can
lucidly describe how his therapists misunderstood him, but he
has quickly perceived that you are
17. different. You share the same feeling, are convinced that you
understand him, and will be able to
help.” At this point my teacher raised his voice as he said, “Do
not even think of taking on this
patient! Throw him out of the office! He is most likely a
psychopath and you will not be able to
help him.”
Many years later I learned that the teacher had warned us
against psychopathic charm, and the
leading authority in the strn y in the udy of psychopathy
confirmed that the teacher’s advice was
sound. The analogy to the Müller-Lyer illusion is close. What
we were being taught was not how
to feel about that patient. Our teacher took it for granted that
the sympathy we would feel for the
patient would not be under our control; it would arise from
System 1. Furthermore, we were not
being taught to be generally suspicious of our feelings about
patients. We were told that a strong
attraction to a patient with a repeated history of failed treatment
is a danger sign—like the fins on
the parallel lines. It is an illusion—a cognitive illusion—and I
(System 2) was taught how to
recognize it and advised not to believe it or act on it.
The question that is most often asked about cognitive illusions
is whether they can be overcome.
The message of these examples is not encouraging. Because
System 1 operates automatically and
cannot be turned off at will, errors of intuitive thought are often
difficult to prevent. Biases cannot
always be avoided, because System 2 may have no clue to the
error. Even when cues to likely
errors are available, errors can be prevented only by the
enhanced monitoring and effortful activity
18. of System 2. As a way to live your life, however, continuous
vigilance is not necessarily good, and
it is certainly impractical. Constantly questioning our own
thinking would be impossibly tedious,
and System 2 is much too slow and inefficient to serve as a
substitute for System 1 in making
routine decisions. The best we can do is a compromise: learn to
recognize situations in which
mistakes are likely and try harder to avoid significant mistakes
when the stakes are high. The
premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other
people’s mistakes than our own.
Useful Fictions
You have been invited to think of the two systems as agents
within the mind, with their individual
personalities, abilities, and limitations. I will often use
sentences in which the systems are the
subjects, such as, “System 2 calculates products.”
The use of such language is considered a sin in the professional
circles in which I travel,
because it seems to explain the thoughts and actions of a person
by the thoughts and actions of little
23
people inside the person’s head. Grammatically the sentence
about System 2 is similar to “The
butler steals the petty cash.” My colleagues would point out that
the butler’s action actually
explains the disappearance of the cash, and they rightly
question whether the sentence about
19. System 2 explains how products are calculated. My answer is
that the brief active sentence that
attributes calculation to System 2 is intended as a description,
not an explanation. It is meaningful
only because of what you already know about System 2. It is
shorthand for the following: “Mental
arithmetic is a voluntary activity that requires effort, should not
be performed while making a left
turn, and is associated with dilated pupils and an accelerated
heart rate.”
Similarly, the statement that “highway driving under routine
conditions is left to System 1”
means that steering the car around a bend is automatic and
almost effortless. It also implies that an
experienced driver can drive on an empty highway while
conducting a conversation. Finally,
“System 2 prevented James from reacting foolishly to the
insult” means that James would have
been more aggressive in his response if his capacity for
effortful control had been disrupted (for
example, if he had been drunk).
System 1 and System 2 are so central to the story I tell in this
book that I must make it absolutely
clear that they are217at they a fictitious characters. Systems 1
and 2 are not systems in the standard
sense of entities with interacting aspects or parts. And there is
no one part of the brain that either
of the systems would call home. You may well ask: What is the
point of introducing fictitious
characters with ugly names into a serious book? The answer is
that the characters are useful
because of some quirks of our minds, yours and mine. A
sentence is understood more easily if it
describes what an agent (System 2) does than if it describes
20. what something is, what properties it
has. In other words, “System 2” is a better subject for a
sentence than “mental arithmetic.” The
mind—especially System 1—appears to have a special aptitude
for the construction and
interpretation of stories about active agents, who have
personalities, habits, and abilities. You
quickly formed a bad opinion of the thieving butler, you expect
more bad behavior from him, and
you will remember him for a while. This is also my hope for the
language of systems.
Why call them System 1 and System 2 rather than the more
descriptive “automatic system” and
“effortful system”? The reason is simple: “Automatic system”
takes longer to say than “System 1”
and therefore takes more space in your working memory. This
matters, because anything that
occupies your working memory reduces your ability to think.
You should treat “System 1” and
“System 2” as nicknames, like Bob and Joe, identifying
characters that you will get to know over
the course of this book. The fictitious systems make it easier for
me to think about judgment and
choice, and will make it easier for you to understand what I say.
Speaking of System 1 and System 2
“He had an impression, but some of his impressions are
illusions.”
“This was a pure System 1 response. She reacted to the threat
before she recognized it.”
“This is your System 1 talking. Slow down and let your System
2 take control.”
21. 24
Stripped down to its essentials, business is about one thing:
making decisions. We’re always deciding something - from the
small and the daily ( which emails to answer, what meetings to
have ) to the macro and the strategic ( what product to launch
and when ) to the intensely personal ( what job to take, whom
to hire, whom to marry ). But what does it take to make a
“good” decision? Is it about going by facts and percentages - or
about following your gut instinct? Does time produce better
decisions, or does pressure make you decide not only faster but
also more wisely? And finally, is better decision making some-
thing that you can learn? We asked 11 decisive leaders, inside
and outside of business, to answer these and other, related
questions. Does their advice help? You decide.
Ed Koch
Partner
Robinson Silverman Pearce Aronsohn & Berman LLP
New York, New York
To make good decisions, you need confidence in your judg-
ment. We all make bad decisions, but the important thing is
not to worry too much about them. Otherwise, you’ll never do
a thing. I was mayor of New York City for 12 years. I had a $28
billion budget. Each decision I made affected seven and a half
million people. The stakes were high. I had to show confidence
- in particular, confidence in my decision-making ability -
because a lot of people had put their trust in me. The worst
decision I ever made was to run for governor of New York State
in 1982. I did it on a lark, and it was stupid. Thank god the peo-
22. ple of New York had enough sense to understand that I didn’t
have my heart in that race - and to vote against me. They did
the right thing, and I was happier because of it.
As a judge, I have to decide on the credibility of two people
standing before me. I don’t know who is telling the truth, but I
know that one of them is lying. That’s when making decisions
gets sticky. Sure, the law helps me make such decisions. But
there have been many times when I’ve had a hell of a time
deciding. Even so, I never base my courtroom decisions on gut
instinct. I go by the evidence - or the lack of evidence - and by
the applicable law.
Ed Koch was mayor of New York City from 1978 to 1989.
Today he writes a weekly column for the New York Daily
News,
has his own radio talk show, and is the judge on the television
program “The People’s Court.”
Pamela Lopker
Chairman and President
QAD Inc.
Carpinteria, California
I make bad decisions all the time. But I’ve been successful
because I’ve developed a process for identifying and changing
those decisions quickly. I approach every decision with an eye
to the long-term outcome. That’s a hard method to adopt in a
fast-paced business environment. But it’s the only way to create
sustainable value on either a professional or a personal level.
The quick-fix method that I see so many companies rely on is
just that - a quick fix. There’s a big difference between invest-
ing heavily in marketing the product that you have today - with
no sense of what it takes to survive tomorrow - and investing
heavily in R&D today so that you can have tomorrow’s product.
24. woman.” QAD, a $172 million enterprise resource-planning
software company, is one of the 30 largest public companies to
be led by a female CEO. Its clients include Avon Products,
PepsiCo, Ford, and Johnson & Johnson.
W. Brian Arthur
Citibank Professor
Santa Fe Institute
Santa Fe, New Mexico
I received my PhD in operations research, which is a highly sci-
entific, mathematical way of strategizing and of making deci-
sions. I once thought that I could make any decision, whether
professional or personal, by using decision trees, game theory,
and optimization. Over time, I’ve changed my mind. For the
day-to-day work of running a business - scheduling a fleet of oil
tankers, choosing where to open a new factory - scientific deci-
sion theory works pretty well. But for just about every other
kind of decision, it doesn’t work at all.
For the big decisions in life, you need to reach a deeper region
of consciousness. Making decisions then becomes not so much
about “deciding” as about letting an inner wisdom emerge.
We’ve been bamboozled into believing that cognition is ration-
al - that our mind is a gigantic computer, or a blackboard on
which we can reach a decision by calculating pluses and
minuses. Recent research on cognition shows that our minds
rarely make strictly logical deductions. Instead, we rely on pat-
terns - and on feelings associated with those patterns.
So for those big decisions - Should I marry this person? Should
I follow that career? Should I sell my company? When should
we go public? - let patterns develop in your mind. Let clues and
25. evidence emerge from your environment. This approach to
decision making requires time, patience, and another key
ingredient: courage. It takes courage to listen to your inner wis-
dom. But once you hear that wisdom, making a decision
becomes fairly easy.
W. Brian Arthur’s work on the economics of increasing returns
and their role in technology-based industries has won him
international recognition in the scientific and business com-
munities. He is a pioneer of the new science of complexity and
the author of The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II
( Addison-Wesley, 1997 ).
Chung-Jen Tan
Senior Manager, Application Systems
IBM’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center
Yorktown Heights, New York
I’ve learned a lot about decision making by watching how a
machine plays chess. In 1996, Deep Blue played Garry
Kasparov, the world chess champion. Deep Blue won the first
game but lost the match. That experience taught us what we
needed to do to be ready for the rematch in 1997.
A human uses a combination of knowledge, strategy, and intu-
ition to make chess decisions. A machine relies on brute com-
putational power and on an ability to examine a tremendous
amount of data. On average, the human mind can manage
three or four positions per second. Deep Blue can evaluate 200
million alternatives per second. So the machine has a huge
advantage. But Deep Blue also had weaknesses, and they cen-
tered on its inability to be flexible. Our challenge was to equip
Deep Blue to make decisions like a human grandmaster.
We built in several programming tools that allowed us to adjust
26. some of the decision parameters dynamically and to change
strategies in between games. Joel Benjamin, the U.S. chess
champion, played chess with Deep Blue for nine months - test-
ing and tunneling the system - and we programmed some of his
knowledge into the computer.
An interesting thing happened when Deep Blue met Kasparov
for the rematch. While we had refined Deep Blue so that it
could make decisions and play more like a human, Kasparov
had refined his strategy so that he could play better against
standard computer-chess programs. In game six, Deep Blue
surprised Kasparov by sacrificing a knight to gain strategic
advantage. Kasparov, who hadn’t planned for such a decision,
realized how inflexible his own strategy had become. We
showed that a machine can reach a level of play comparable
with that of a grandmaster .
Chung-Jen Tan manages IBM’s Deep Blue computer-chess
project. Since 1984, Tan has worked on the architecture devel-
opment and machine design of highly parallel, scalable sys-
tems for solving large, complex problems.
Deborah Triant
CEO and President
Check Point Software Technologies Inc.
Redwood City, California
Making and implementing decisions boils down to a key ingre-
dient: listening.
I often wonder why schools emphasize debating. Why not have
listening classes as well? Debating is easy; listening with an
open mind is not. The worst thing that you as a leader can do
in the decision-making process is to voice your opinion before
anyone else can. No matter how open and honest your people
are, stating your opinion first will short-change the discussion
28. sidiary of Sun Microsystems, before she joined Adobe Systems
as president of marketing in 1993. In 1995, she left Adobe to
head Check Point, a network-security and traffic-management
software company.
Roger Rainbow
VP, Global Business Environment
Shell International Ltd.
London, England
Nothing can paralyze a decision-making process more than
uncertainty can. The big decisions that have failed at Shell did-
n’t fail because of our operations or because of project man-
agement; they failed because we misunderstood the external
world. That’s why, when we’re on the verge of a big decision,
we do scenario planning. A scenario is valuable because it’s a
plausible, coherent story that we can use to articulate why we
want to do something and which issues to factor into the deci-
sion-making process.
Everyone has two things in mind when approaching a big deci-
sion. The first thing is a scenario - a view of how the world will
turn out. The second thing is an objective or a strategy. A good
decision-making process marries those two things.
Decisions fall into three categories. With the first category, you
know a lot. Take a plant that’s been operating for 20 years. You
know what makes it succeed or fail, and the decisions you take
regarding it tend to be fairly straightforward. They may be hard
to implement, but they’re simple to make.
With the second category, you know something but not every-
thing. This is where scenario planning helps. For instance, if
we’re trying to decide whether to invest in an oil field in
Russia,
29. we talk about which factors are uncertain and why. What has
to happen in order for this investment to succeed? What could
go wrong? What would the consequences be? Are any of those
consequences absolutely catastrophic? If so, how can we guard
against them?
With the third category, you know virtually nothing, and you’re
starting from scratch. This is where intuition comes into play -
and where you make truly creative decisions: You’re deciding
on things that haven’t been done before.
Each category of decisions requires different skills and process-
es. Understand which kind of decision you’re facing, and use
scenarios to narrow the range of uncertainty.
Roger Rainbow ( [email protected] ) joined Shell
in 1970. His team provides analyses of the business environ-
ment by preparing long-term scenarios that consider econom-
ic, social, technological, and environmental issues, as well as
the long-term supply and demand of energy sources.
Chris Newell
Executive Director, the Lotus Institute
Lotus Development Corp.
Cambridge, Massachusetts
The crux of making good decisions isn’t doing things right - it’s
making sure that you focus on the right things. As citizens of
the Information Age, we’re overwhelmed with data, reports,
facts - much of it noise that we need to filter out before we can
figure out what’s relevant to a decision. So I’ve learned to hone
my discrimination skills. But if you’re exploring something that
has no precedent - an idea, a product, a service - you can’t rely
solely on data to guide you. You have to rely on people too.
I’ve
developed a personal advisory council that I consult before
31. By transforming the art of decision making into a science, you
can save time, money, and frustration. My team handles tough
decisions every day. It has to decide whether we can “cure” a
loan for someone who has stopped making payments on it or
whether we have to recommend foreclosure because of real
financial trouble.
For a long time, we couldn’t figure out what allowed some of
our reps to make better decisions than others did. We pulled six
of our best reps off their jobs and analyzed their decision-mak-
ing processes for 10 months. We found that these reps had rad-
ically different styles. Our challenge was to figure out the criti-
cal processes that drove their decisions and then to make sure
that those decisions were driven by factual, up-to-date informa-
tion. We had a goal: to become more consistent in our decision
making and to improve our customers’ perception of us. We
ended up creating a software program, called Loss Mitigation
Optimizer, to aid us in that process.
Turning decision making into a science saved us time and
money. Before we implemented this technology, we were cur-
ing fewer than 30% of our cases. Now we cure more than 50%
of them. The decision-making process itself takes 30% to 50%
less time per deal. Our savings jumped dramatically - by about
$8,000 per case. In the project’s first 18 months, these addi-
tional savings came to $15 million in net income. Some peo-
ple think that decisions of this type can’t be driven by data. Our
results show otherwise.
Buz Mertes joined GE in 1984. Since 1996, Mertes has spon-
sored a series of projects that have increased the company’s net
income by more than $20 million.
Jerry Seeman
Senior Director of Officiating
32. National Football League
New York, New York
As a referee, I found that the pressure was the same whether I
was officiating a preseason game or a Super Bowl. Being on the
field is like being in a fishbowl: Everyone - players, coaches,
fans, the media - is waiting for your decision. A successful call
depends on three things: You must be in position, you must
have a deep knowledge of the game, and you must have intense
concentration. Remember, no matter what the reaction to your
decision may be, you answer to only one thing: your con-
science. Above all, when making a decision, you have to keep
your cool.
One of the biggest errors that I see officials fall into is making
calls too quickly. Each decision has two phases: You read and
analyze the play, and then you make the call. But when things
happen in a split second, it can be tempting to throw a penalty
flag before you know what happened. That’s why I tell all of my
officials to work in “cruise control.” The fans may go crazy, the
players and coaches may get excited, but there should be seven
people on the field who work every game the same way from
beginning to end - and who exude a quiet confidence.
Once you make a decision, you’d better be able to communi-
cate it. I remember having to make a call on a bizarre play in
a playoff game between Houston and Cleveland. After an
attempted onside kick, the kicking team illegally touched the
ball, which then went out of bounds. The rules dictate that the
kicking team should kick again. That team again tried an
onside kick, and again it illegally touched the ball - but this
time, it recovered the ball. I called that the receiving team
would gain control of the ball on the spot where it was illegal-
ly touched. This was a complicated play: The NFL probably
hasn’t seen another of its kind in the past 15 years. At first, the
34. change their decision-making behavior. Everyone makes mis-
takes and bad decisions. I try to show people that their mistakes
are predictable.
Here’s an interesting thought experiment: You’ve got to decide
between two things - two executives to hire for a key position,
two acquisition targets, two houses that you’re thinking about
buying.
You go through a systematic process of identifying all of the
fac-
tors and weighing them for each alternative. You do a little
arithmetic, and your analysis says to pick A over B. But your
intuition says to pick B over A. So what do you do?
Most people will go on their intuition - which raises the ques-
tion, Why did you do all that work in the first place? One of
these two options is wrong. So postpone your decision until you
can determine why your intuition is out of sync with the sys-
tematic analysis. That’s the purpose of systematic analysis: to
inform your intuition, to make you consider all of the options,
and to help you make a wise decision.
Max Bazerman ( [email protected] ) studies decision mak-
ing, negotiation, and environmental issues. He is the author of
Judgment in Managerial Decision Making ( John Wiley &
Sons, 1986 ) and Why Smart People Make Dumb Money
Moves ( forthcoming from Wiley, April 1999 ). Bazerman is a
visiting professor of business admi nistration at Harvard
Business School.
Howard Raiffa
Professor Emeritus
Harvard Business School
Boston, Massachusetts