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Intro h

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  • 8. - 16 - '(%+"4:# '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0! ../((-#./#0!(,#!(!",(5.($#(32 .(6 "#+2&$ '($%& 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 1961 1972 1983 1995 2005 ¯ ¯ ¯ !6+#1961!",(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7# $+1% &"6+ 2#$1% $!("# 8(%6 &"'(#")# "6("'-* /"0* *"*.8+%# "6("'-* /"0* */2 &"6+*!("9(/7(1* "!+#,!6+ :(9#+ ,2 .;)( 8/* $24* &/(12005*"* 1/+ ;2%7 .*"6"# /,#* &""). !",(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7 /+ *3% $!(" 8(%6 &"'(#")# "6("'-* /"0* *"* &"2+!* !(6+ 2'%1 ,2,$)"2# $!(" *(#0 .("$4 //0#.2' !$"0* #(/"+# !(6($-1* &"6+# .("$4* "$(2"+# *,"$"* 81('"1* 5(#")*% &"$" &"'(#")# "6("'-* /"0# *""/2/ (1"#*( !(6),3** 8"/*! !1)./*/ *$"0*( .("$4 &")$4# *#-$* *1$.(-(/# ./*/+ *,&"6+# &"/"0* #7$* !1 ;$4%*1961-2005,*""9(/7(1* /+ *)/- !(%'%;'* !%0% !4)!+% *$"2'*)"6#0-19(;!6+#1961#($) (/1 &"/"0 "6# (("**""9(/7(1* !"'-%/)7-48%(,:(9#(2005&* +"/+% !(-4 (("*)7-32%.(&"6+#1972-2000"6# &"$"2'* /+ &)/- &0 ,$"20-34.!6+# /-*2000 (3 *'(#) /+ *)/- /,0. 2#.!:'(3#&(4! "((-#./#0,.(6 (5. "#+2&$ '($%& '(1#20 2005 2000 1995 1983 1972 1961 .(6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -./! 9 31.6 34.1 37.3 40.2 39.9 47.7 0-19 23.6 21.7 20.1 25.3 28.4 23.8 20-34 21.5 24.0 24.8 19.0 17.4 22.8 54-35 10.9 8.3 6.4 6.2 10.0 3.4 64-55 12.4 11.8 11.5 9.3 4.2 2.2 +65 6.0 5.4 5.4 6.9 3.1 1.4 *3%:75+ 30.7 29.4 28.8 25.7 23.9 21.1 .("'-
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  •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–!6+#2005,(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7# *)"$41( *"91 "1'(" /+ &)/-&""6+ "4% $!(" /(,0 *"* !" &"'(#")# $+1%)29%!%(2/14%,*%1!*#.( *!/2+ *""9(/7(1* !"#$%+ 1"* &"'(#")* !""9(/7(1# *)"$41( *"91 "1'(" /+ 8(%6* &)/-/ !(#"9* !-1 1/( -(!"4 !($""2/( &"#+(%/ *2"0* &"+"%-* !(6+ /+ !(/(,0* !("/2# *"91( *)"$41 .(4' !('$1% *'$1 ")/&"'(#. 8,)4% "64/ 1'(% !+#" /2 &"6(!6 &"%"") 1/1972.
  • 11. - 19 - '(%+"6:"(,#!(! !((-#./#0! ../# '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0,03#* "%&( (5. "#+2&$ '($%& 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1972 1983 1995 2005 1972 1983 1995 2005 ¯ ¯ ¯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¯ 12% " ( ) 77% " 5% 6% ¯ 97(1/ 1"* .17 *1((+**1/* &"/(2* /+ *(#0* &$49% /+# &"$-1*( &",(*"* !""9(/-&",(*")1/ &"$'(6-&"#$2 !, 0(("9 1//((&"2+!* !(6+ /+ *""/2* "/0#)!$,0* *1$'(+20# '(,#!(0 )$4#:&"$#9*( !($,0*.(
  • 12. - 20 - 2.3("25%* &3*10 !6+#2005,"-/ &"$+2* !(6+# &"'(#")* "#+(! !"#$%&"1(+6 &*""-/ &"+(/+* !(6+#( &")(($ ("* &*". !",(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7/ !"9-" $-(1% /"0# 1+6"*/ *;(6 (3 *""9(/7(1–&"'(#")# !()(($*( &")(($* 3(-1 &"/"0#20-29!",(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7#+ *3% *(#0 *"*)!(-(/ )$4 *1$,-(/8.(:1 $24* &"+6* #$)# ,-("%# /(,0 *"*–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
  • 13. - 21 - 8 2#.:"(,#!(! !((-#./#0! ../# '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0–..#/ :#(+5 +#)(% "#+2&$ '($%& "(,#!(! !((-#./#0! ../ '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0 !$% ..#/ :#(+5 +#)(% "#,(.! ./ 9- ..#/ :#(+5 +#)(% (.! ./ 9-"#, 3.25 64,490 3.34 2,461 1972 2.89 74,893 2.95 2,706 1983 2.53 80,401 2.50 1,804 1995 2.69 100,657 2.60 1,817 2005 $49% &""(6"+ &* &0 ($#2 &"'(#")* !""9(/7(1# /"0 !('(#) "4/ .("$4* "9(4,./"0* !'(#)% $#2 .("$4* 1"+ 25-29!6+#1972/"0* !'(#)/30-34!6+#2005./"0 ,2 &"+6 /+ .("$4* "$(2"+# *,"$" */- .7 (%7 29/"0# &"+6 /+ .("$4* "$(2"+# *""/2(30*/2%(.*""-,( &",/"* !,/(* /"0# *""-, &"4)+% (/1 &""(6"+ &"1(+"6* /"0#)" -(/ *1$.( ( 2#.:'(3#&(4! "((-#./#0–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
  •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–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
  • 15. - 23 - 2#.0(:"(,#!(! !((-#./#0! ../# '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0–'(0%($,:(* (5. 2004 )3#** .(6 ($#(32 .(6 '(+#)(% +5-*'(8.2#*'( !1*: '(0%($ ')5& !!$#%0+ 9- ./! !1*: '(0%($ ')5& !!$#%0+ 9- ./! !1*: '(0%($ ')5& !!$#%0+** 9- ./!* !1*: '(0%($ ')5& !!$#%0+ 9- ./! '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0 29.3 30.5 29.1 29.5 28.2 28.4 463 511 &"$#0 27.1 28.0 27.5 27.7 34.5 32.8 451 488 &"+6 ! ../((-#./#0! (,#!(!" 27.6 29.2 27.4 27.9 43.6 43.8 26,723 29,969 &"$#0 25.4 26.5 25.1 25.6 53.6 49.4 27,309 29,969 6&"+ */ &"$(2"+-1,0001/-1/( &"1(+6-"6# !(1(+615-49,*%1!*#. **/ &"$(2"+-1,000"6# !()(($( &")(($15-49,*%1!*#. 2.5.2'(%#+(6 !6+#2004(+$0!*190( &"$#0-171&"'(#")* !""9(/7(1# &"+6.$49%# *""/2 :)+% *3 .(!6 &"+$0!%*,!6+# ,%2+1961/274( &"$#0-87,#/# &"+6.1(* &0 */2 &"+$0!%* $(2"+,.4(1# "7 &1 $!(" &"*(#0 ("* &"+($"0* "$(2"+ *#+ !",(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7/ 9-"# .(!%,31% $)"2#1983)*1$ &"+$!9.(#";)/()* /(% *-4+%* !()3-!*% !2#(6 &"'(#")# &"+($"0* $(2"+# *6(!%* *""/2*+ .7!"" (/1 &"6+#.;/(#* "(;"#*!"!-4+% *6"// &",/" "!## &",/"* /+ !4!(+% *6"/% $#2%* 1(* 87/.16 16*1$:-$4%-$# -%'/ .0(% $#-!($-!)*$2* /"2/1(,%2'51.
  • 16. - 24 - '(%+"9:"(,#!(! !((-#./#0! ../# '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0–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–'(%+6"*,:(* (5. 2004 )3#** .(6 ($#(32 .(6 '(+#)(%* +5-*'( 8.2#*'( '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0 44.8 43.9 8.1 190 &"$#0 42.4 40.7 7.1 171 &"+6 ! ../((-#./#0!(,#!(!" 41.2 40.4 9.1 9,955 &"$#0 37.3 36.4 9.1 9,955 &"+6 */-1,000"6# !(1(+6( &"1(+620*/2%(,*%1!*#.
  •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–*6(+1$* &!(2)!+* &()%7 (+%"++ *;"/) "37$%/ (2"0* &)/-18 $-1/ (#32 81 *$') !(*+. &"'(#")# *$"0** .31%# $(4"+ /+ *%0% !$7"6 !(6($-1* &"6+#,"/"/+ $!(6 ."",2 1(* "7 &1..7!"" "!/"*)* !(#-$** !%)*+*$"0** .31%# *3 $(4"+/ !(#"9* !-1 1"* !(. '(%+"10:'(3#&(4& "(*($5 !+(6! :10* '($%&1961-2005 '(8.2#* '(+5-* -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 17&""!6+ .31% "'#()% &"6(!6 1/1 ,)4% "6(!6 &6"1 *3 )$4# &"6(!6*. 18"*6(+1$ !(2)!+*"5$1# &"/(2* /+ .(+1$* &"$(0%* &()% 1"*,&!""/2 !2# &+$6+ "47.
  • 18. - 26 - &"'(#")* ."# (+26 !"%"64* *$"0** !(2(6!% )/-,!1 #32+ *""9(/7(1* $(2"+ /,0 &"6+* 8/*%# 81 !($-1 #(+"" !($(' /1 &"'(#")*.$#2# &1),2 &"+"+* !(6+&"6(%+* !(6+(,."#17%/-20%&"1'("*% $-1 5(#")/ &"$#(2 ("* &"'(#")*%,/ *3 $(2"+ ,$" 8/"1( &"2+!* !(6+%+ "$*-10%. !(6($-1* &"6+#,*$"0** !(2(6! !"#$%)&*% !(1"'"( &"'(#")/ !(9"67(.*"/1( 5$1# !(/(,0 &"$2% .*. *%0(,/:!6+ 8/*%#20057 ($0"*-700(#")*% +46#"#1 /!/ &"',7-300&"/+($"/,7-200$49%( *4"-/ .("'/ .(+1$/ *%(,.8(4** .(("7#–&"'(#")* /1–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¯ ¯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–37$% "$)-%,)!* /+ ",(2"!( "6("2$"&,1993,%2'18.
  • 19. - 27 - &"6+# &"'(#")/ (2"0*+ &"/(2* $(2"+1967-2005( !(#"'" /2 $%+//7% &"3(-1 *+(/+/ ,-1 3(-1 ."# 26 &"'(#")* !""9(/7(1.!",(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7 8(!% 5$1/ &"/(2* //7 /+ &)/-% *(#0 *"* *3 $(2"+,22 &"2+!* !(6+ !/"-!# ;2%/,*"$# !(6",%% *""/2* /0 /+ 1"+* !(6+"%)$#2+/) (&"+$! *1$12.( %1# /4+/ 2"0* &"'(#")/ (2"0*+ &"/(2* $49%&"6(%+* !(6+ 2')&"6+#1985-1986(,&$49% 26 31 ."# 2'(%%*700/-800*6+/.8+%*#,*"$# !(6",%% *""/2* /0 !(#)2#"%)$#2+/(!(6+ !"+1$# &"2+!*,*6+ /7# &"'(#")/ (2"0*+ &"/(2* $49% +/(+,&"2+!* !(6+ !"#$%#+ 87)!6+# ;2%/1993( % *(#0 &$49% *"*-2,000*6+/ &"/(2. '(%+"12:'(3#&(4! "((-#./#0 ../ 9#"* '(3#&(4. #)(6!% '(.#)! .% '4.2, "(,#!(! !((-#./#0! ../ 9#"* ;+0. '(.#)! ../ .% '4.2# '($%&1967-2005 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ¯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
  • 20. - 28 - '(%+"13:'(3#&(4! "((-#./#0–#2. !+(6! :10*"'(!#% .% .#2&"!$% . "#5(3+& !.)*#,.(6 (5. '($%&1990-2004 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1,000- 14-0 24-15 34-25 44-35 54-45 +55 &"6+#1990-2004(-/ *$"0** .31% *"*"!",(*"* *""9(/7(1* //7#+ *3% *(#0 &"'(#")* !""9(/7(1# /. *4(9 !1$)/ &'%;'*( *4()!* !/"-!# /(,0 *"* !("9(/7(1* ."# +$4**)&"+$! *1$14(,#)2 $)"2# /+* *$"0** .31%# *,"$"*/"0* !'(#)# &"'(#")# "/"15-24. '(%+"14:"(,#!(! !((-#./#0! ../# '(3#&(4! "((-#./#0–#2. !+(6! :10*". #2& '(!#% .%""#5(3+& !.)*# !$% . '($%&1990-2004 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1,000- ¯ ¯ ¯
  •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–5$1/*,"/* !+#";/1$+" ","/"/–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–*""9(/7(1,%2'79.
  •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