Information from November 12, 2011 MASC Division VII Meeting. Student enrollment data from October 2010 state reporting. Age data from 2010 federal census.

1. School Enrollment, Census and K-12 Planning

2. K12 Planning: Cape Cod & Islands
 Issues
 Decreasing Population of School Age Children
 Competition
 Public
 School Choice
 Charter Schools
 Private Schools
 Determining Future Trends for Local Enrollment
 Planning to Appropriately Meet Local Needs

3. Historical Student Population
All Cape (No Islands - No Charter)
FY PK UG K G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total
1988 231 200 2383 2397 2322 2215 2155 2058 1949 1939 2110 2245 2141 2223 2233 28,801
1989 281 169 2361 2605 2282 2352 2250 2206 2110 1955 1982 2220 2067 2040 2043 28,923
1990 336 197 2446 2619 2531 2320 2378 2263 2234 2123 1978 2103 2113 1964 1886 29,491
1991 312 193 2546 2627 2580 2554 2341 2398 2262 2193 2151 2076 1964 2026 1814 30,037
1992 351 201 2573 2725 2589 2591 2608 2360 2395 2241 2222 2229 2003 1895 1893 30,876
1993 302 181 2437 2549 2544 2461 2414 2410 2194 2173 2036 2192 1990 1768 1670 29,321
1994 472 132 2611 2583 2564 2595 2477 2476 2457 2203 2202 2191 2113 1954 1685 30,715
1995 531 72 2554 2707 2645 2593 2654 2513 2539 2445 2231 2414 2057 2040 1786 31,781
1996 528 114 2605 2731 2685 2663 2603 2667 2459 2472 2437 2394 2225 1986 1903 32,472
1997 542 97 2454 2767 2691 2676 2658 2565 2527 2401 2441 2581 2276 2131 1762 32,569
1998 575 71 2318 2570 2754 2690 2718 2656 2566 2528 2416 2640 2393 2113 1911 32,919
1999 613 74 2214 2471 2577 2780 2749 2745 2635 2576 2568 2602 2459 2253 1918 33,234
2000 598 55 2290 2378 2480 2628 2800 2187 2675 2647 2599 2756 2377 2300 2073 32,843
2001 370 0 2231 2390 2356 2505 2639 2183 2702 2677 2674 2889 2538 2279 2140 32,573
2002 568 0 1948 2304 2315 2364 2472 2088 2680 2680 2617 2894 2552 2329 2045 31,856
2003 572 0 2103 2235 2275 2356 2350 1955 2533 2696 2689 3036 2570 2446 2168 31,984
2004 619 8 2050 2184 2208 2300 2351 1894 1894 2443 2683 2915 2729 2458 2209 30,945
2005 706 13 1879 2013 2082 2109 2199 1825 1828 2396 2440 2875 2656 2582 2228 29,831
2006 712 13 1850 1919 1967 2070 2088 1747 1785 2182 2367 2646 2616 2515 2354 28,831
2007 690 25 1888 1921 1873 1962 2046 1633 1704 2204 2173 2615 2428 2528 2352 28,042
2008 726 31 1817 1914 1876 1861 1941 1661 1569 2099 2204 2347 2446 2453 2374 27,319
2009 695 31 1784 1900 1890 1847 1907 1579 1586 1987 2099 2340 2271 2372 2170 26,458
2010 742 44 1807 1804 1865 1913 1544 1576 1964 1980 2011 2339 2289 2210 2143 26,231

4. Cape Historical Enrollment Trends
Enrollment (No Islands, No Charter)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000 Enrollment (No Islands, No Charter)
10,000
5,000
0

5. Cape Enrollment Trends
All Cape (Charter – Including
Barnstable Horace Mann Charters)
FY PK UG K G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total
1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1992 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1993 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996 0 0 81 53 48 27 21 22 108 76 76 0 0 35 29 576
1997 0 0 66 70 60 63 37 38 91 73 65 5 0 34 34 636
1998 0 0 72 69 69 80 78 37 101 95 71 12 4 35 33 756
1999 0 163 72 74 79 82 88 83 93 100 96 39 65 108 61 1,203
2000 0 0 0 6 13 12 14 595 69 72 78 168 121 215 79 1,442
2001 0 0 14 9 14 13 14 627 71 72 71 113 111 278 83 1,490
2002 0 0 13 126 28 14 12 516 74 77 74 182 93 114 96 1,419
2003 0 0 13 12 13 10 14 539 74 73 82 150 156 238 133 1,507
2004 0 0 13 13 12 14 10 537 676 80 74 159 121 313 153 2,175
2005 0 0 82 91 72 89 83 641 589 123 83 227 174 228 149 2,631
2006 0 0 116 96 96 95 95 640 823 267 117 181 185 287 138 3,136
2007 0 0 71 73 15 13 15 602 845 337 256 249 167 176 185 3,004
2008 0 0 72 75 73 14 14 564 817 360 314 235 191 151 170 3,050
2009 0 0 81 70 74 72 16 585 821 363 313 228 270 198 168 3,259
2010 0 0 72 107 111 100 437 389 90 94 94 122 128 106 88 1,938

6. Cohort Trends – Student Population
Cohort Enrollment 2010-2011
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Cohort Enrollment
3000
2000
1000
0
Age 0-3 Age 1-4 Age 2-5 K-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11 10-12

7. Cohort Trends – Student Population
Cohort Enrollment
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Cohort Enrollment
3000
2000
1000
0
10-12 9-11 8-10 7-9 6-8 4-6 3-5 2-4 1-3 K-2 Age 2-5 Age 1-4 Age 0-3

8. Cohorts for Future Student Population
2010-2011 Data
Age 0-3 Age 1-4 Age 2-5 K-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11 10-12 HS
1,250 1,304 1,299 1164 1224 1245 1209 1217 1226 1258 1318 1304 1235 1691
522 531 519 525 534 537 545 580 587 564 521 493 478 654
193 194 214 217 247 255 251 159
101 107 97 143 144 153 163 158 151 160 163 156 139 195
942 942 942 773 774 788 800 802 809 764 716 683 686 906
85 84 85 104 113 121 121 77
769 783 797 894 897 893 865 845 838 819 739 712 710 965
260 283 296 308 307 329 326 324 289 283 273 269 272 368
384 390 388 426 428 408 414 395 407 430 409 400 384 539
88 99 101 86 82 84 86 54
32 36 35 26 29 24 29 23 20 29 33 35 37 51
516 553 604 725 783 820 837 826 891 911 875 810 767 1054
33 36 40 58 64 53 52 48 16
58 52 46 72 58 51 56 39
180 563 595 664 741 756 968
184 359 532 499 683
184 350 512 488 672
110 224 322 291 401
76 228 152 76
5233 5394 5463 5521 5684 5761 5754 5803 6025 6443 6720 6969 6742 9147
75.09% 77.40% 78.39% 79.22% 81.56% 82.67% 82.57% 83.27% 86.45% 92.45% 96.43% 100.00% 96.74%

9. Cape Cod School Choice Trends (2010-2011)
Cape Districts
--- ---
Receiving---Sending---
FTE FTE
FY Pupils Pupils
1,000.00 n of incoming choice pupils
2002 354.56 346.96
900.00 n of choice pupils at other districts
number of full-time equivalent pupils
2003 388.35 394.17
800.00
2004 455.03 431.80 700.00
2005 484.78 438.21 600.00
500.00
2006 570.70 508.93
400.00
2007 580.96 535.76
300.00
2008 699.51 649.48
200.00
2009 737.37 736.26
100.00
2010 817.56 794.11 0.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2011 933.00 911.00

10. 10.0 Wellfleet
0.0
31.0 Wareha
45.5 m
2.0 Truro
23.0
School Choice Impact (2010-2011)
n of choice pupils at other districts
38.5 Sandwic
21.0 h
43.0 Province
25.0 town
1.0 Orleans
0.0
34.0 Nauset
240.0
46.0 Mashpe
4.0 e
n of incoming choice pupils
194.5 Harwich
147.0
District
23.5 Falmout
35.0 h
9.0 Eastha
0.0 m
303.5 DY
70.0
55.0 Chatha
203.0 m
16.0 Brewste
0.0 r
30.0 Bourne
42.0
74.0 Barnsta
77.5 ble
0.0
300.0
350.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
Number of full-time equivalent pupils

11. School Choice & Charter Impact (2010-2011)
0.0 Wellfle
10.0 et
0.0
17.0 Wareh
31.0
Charter - Out
Choice - Out
45.5 am
Choice - In
8.0
2.0 Truro
23.0
59.0 Sandwi
38.5 ch
21.0
9.0 Provin
43.0 cetown
25.0
0.0 Orlean
1.0 s
0.0
98.0
34.0 Nauset
240.0
24.0 Mashp
46.0 ee
4.0
District
35.0 Harwic
194.5 h
147.0
54.0 Falmo
23.5 uth
35.0
0.0 Eastha
9.0 m
0.0
137.0
303.5 DY
70.0
7.0 Chatha
55.0 m
203.0
0.0 Brewst
16.0 er
0.0
44.0
30.0 Bourne
42.0
100.0 Barnst
74.0 able
77.5
0.0
150.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
100.0
50.0
FTE - Students

12. School Choice & Charter Impact
FTE - In FTE - Out FTE
Choice - Choice -
FY Pupils Pupils Charter
Barnstable 77.5 74.0 100.0
Bourne 42.0 30.0 44.0
Brewster 0.0 16.0 0.0
Chatham 203.0 55.0 7.0
DY 70.0 303.5 137.0
Eastham 0.0 9.0 0.0
Falmouth 35.0 23.5 54.0
Harwich 147.0 194.5 35.0
Mashpee 4.0 46.0 24.0
Nauset 240.0 34.0 98.0
Orleans 0.0 1.0 0.0
Provincetown 25.0 43.0 9.0
Sandwich 21.0 38.5 59.0
Truro 23.0 2.0 8.0
Wareham 45.5 31.0 17.0
Wellfleet 0.0 10.0 0.0

13. Other Influences Upon Public
School District Enrollment
 Parochial / Religious School Enrollment
 Pope Pius X– Yarmouth (215)
 St. Margaret’s – Buzzards Bay (265)
 Pope John Paul II – Hyannis (approx. 235)
 Trinity Christian Academy (112)
 Holy Trinity Regional School - Harwich (128)
 St. Francis Xavier – Hyannis (215)
 Veritas Academy – West Barnstable (37)
 Heritage Christian Academy – East Falmouth (53)
 Bayberry Christian School – Osterville (7)
 Faith Christian Academy – Hyannis (21)
 Private School Enrollment
 Cape Cod Academy (337)
 Falmouth Academy (190)
 Waldorf School – Cotuit (98)
 The Laurel School – Brewster (?)
 Academy of Early Learning - Hyannis (118)

14. Planning for Enrollment Changes
 Next Steps
 Data Gathering & Review
 Discussion - Local
 Dialogue – Regional with Common “Terms”
 What does it look like?
 Regionalization?
 Consolidation?
 Collaboration?