Indian Economy Next Quarter
Rains still not favouring India’s granary in the northwest, August rains key now
Pressure on pulses prices set to ease with imports and higher crop by winter
RBI holds rates, but inflationary pressures will force its hand by last quarter
Commodity prices set to rise as global growth signs turn more positive
High government borrowings pushing bond yields upwards
Subdued dollar as emerging economies show more promise this year
India : Kal, aaj aur kal
As we have been emphasising in the past few newsletters, despite the negative WPI inflation numbers, all is not calm on the inflation front. Right now attention has focused on inflation in food articles and manufactured food products, standing provisionally at 9.7% and 8.5% for the week ending July 25th. Consumer price indices for June are also registering higher inflation than previous months, CPI AL for instance stands at 11.52% inflation; this is on top of the 8.77% rate in June 2008. Clearly, the government’s ‘touchy feely’ talk on being the saviour of the poor has been negated by inflation. Could the government have done anything different? We believe it could have and should have. By preferring to reduce emphasis on the consequences of a high fiscal deficit on inflation, the government has done a great disservice to the country.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey puts across the GDP growth estimate for the year 2014-15 at 5.3%, with a minimum and a maximum range of 4.9% and 5.8%. This is a tad lower than the 5.5% growth estimate put out by the economists in the previous survey round and is mainly on account of bleak prospects for performance of the agriculture sector due to sub-par monsoon forecast.
Regarding the performance of the industrial sector this year. The median forecast for industrial growth for 2014-15 is pegged at 3.1% and for agricultural sector at 2.1%. Further, services sector growth is expected at 7.0% this year and is only marginally higher than 6.8% growth recorded in 2013-14.
On Inflation, the El Nino effect is expected to fuel inflationary pressure going ahead.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey puts across the GDP growth estimate for the year 2014-15 at 5.3%, with a minimum and a maximum range of 4.9% and 5.8%. This is a tad lower than the 5.5% growth estimate put out by the economists in the previous survey round and is mainly on account of bleak prospects for performance of the agriculture sector due to sub-par monsoon forecast.
Regarding the performance of the industrial sector this year. The median forecast for industrial growth for 2014-15 is pegged at 3.1% and for agricultural sector at 2.1%. Further, services sector growth is expected at 7.0% this year and is only marginally higher than 6.8% growth recorded in 2013-14.
On Inflation, the El Nino effect is expected to fuel inflationary pressure going ahead.
Atradius Country Report - United Kingdom – April 2014Salih Yilmaz
Main economic developments
Economic growth will accelerate further in 2014
According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the last quarter of 2013 the UK’s GDP increased 0.7% on the
previous quarter (see chart below) and 1.7% for the full year - well above expectations at the beginning of 2013.
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Highlights
• 6.1% growth in 2009-10Q1, drought restricts potential ahead
• Construction and services power growth while manufacturing picks up
• Need to target rabi crop as monsoon deficit stands currently at 25%
• Growth estimated at 6.6% this fiscal, inflation bigger worry
• While food price pressure will ease by winter, commodities set to rise e.g steel
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
Throughout the gloom of last year, we have been optimistic about the growth in India, our estimates of more than 6% growth this year were amongst the highest while finance whizzes were busy forecasting dire numbers in the range of 4-6%. In our January newsletter we had said that by the second half of this year, there would be an overall improvement. We had also cautioned that a deflationary situation that was being discussed was of little import here where inflation would be the prime worry. As the months passed and the revival became more apparent, estimates were rapidly revised upwards, both of growth and inflation. Though some find this surprising, we maintain, that this was all predictable, as was the downturn, and as is the inflationary environment in coming months.
As we go ahead, growth will show ‘surprising’ levels, e.g. the IIP numbers can get close to 10% - on the back of low base of last year, electricity and mining are doing better this year, vehicle sales are soaring with domestic festival demand etc. We see no reason to cheer though. The past year has taken a heavy toll on the finances of the government and investment plans in the private sector, consumer confidence has also been hit hard, while inflation has eaten gaping holes in the common man’s wallet. Moreover, the true impact of the poor monsoon will be known only by the year end. The financial sector types meanwhile are having a field day once more, rapidly pushing up spirits and stock markets. Some are even getting into debates on whether this slowdown would take the shape of a V, U, W, or the Riemann’s zeta function, as Bloomberg columnist Moynihan quipped.
It is important to remember though that the ‘green shoots’ which are growing tall now have sprung up in response to fiscal stimuli and rate cuts worldwide, not through any change in fundamental factors. Work is on towards changing standards of regulation and supervision internationally, but these will take time to be implemented. In the meanwhile, we have to point out that we are now tired of stressing on one issue - that such high levels of expenditures, in India and abroad, are inflationary whatever way one tries to handle it. Expectedly, the rational components of financial markets recognize this problem and we are seeing significant upward pressure on interest rates. This is a natural outcome of government over-spending.
There is a possibility that to get around this problem this government may try to borrow from abroad. And if that happens on a large enough scale, the final degree of freedom that the government will have, would have been used up. We therefore do not support such an initiative, despite its short term advantages of keeping upward interest rate pressures under check. Note that India has done something similar in the past (during the Rajiv Gandhi years) when it borrowed internationally and spent on unproductive activities. For a few years things looked very good, but pressures were building. The ruling conglomeration in the post Rajiv Gandhi years just did not have the ability to handle the pressures so generated. We all know the final outcome.
At the end of the day we cannot spend this much without paying for it one way or another. And it is better to pay by way of lower investment, higher interest and prices, rather than macro-economic instability. But the first best solution remains the same - don’t spend on unproductive activities please.
PS. Please visit our new homepage for interactive time series graphs of economic indicators
Focus of the Month: Employment and Skill Development
One of the key factors driving India’s impressive growth
rate is the demographic dividend, based on a workforce
that will continue to grow into the middle of the century
and power our saving and investment rates. Moreover,
the evolving demographics unambiguously point out that
India will remain a young nation and the largest contributor
to the global workforce over the next few decades
- an exceptional strength compared to the rapidly ageing
population in the Western countries, and that in China,
owing to its one-child policy. The rise in its working-age
population, however, is necessary but not sufficient for
India to sustain its economic growth. If India does not
create enough jobs and its workers are not adequately
prepared for those jobs, its demographic dividend may
turn into a liability. While employment is one side of the
challenge, employability is the obverse. The skill development
endeavor has to be accelerated and greatly scaled
up in a joint effort of Government, industry and civil society.
In view of the increasing importance of both employment
and skill development of labour force in India,
in this month’s Focus of the Month, we cover this crucial
issue in detail.
The MNI India Business Sentiment is an authoritative indicator of the current pace of overall growth in India. It is based on a monthly poll of Indian executives and delivers an update on all the latest business trends.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyan...Kyna Tsai
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
Performance of Multiple symbol representation with clipping scheme for PAPR r...ijsrd.com
OFDM is one of the multicarrier modulation technique used in various communication systems. The major problem one faces while implementing this system is the high peak to average power .For an efficient OFDM system this PAPR should be low. In this paper a hybrid PAPR (peak to average power ratio) reduction technique for the OFDM (orthogonal frequency division multiplexing) signal which combines a multiple symbol representations method with a signal clipping method is proposed. In multiple symbol representations alternative signaling points are used to represent one symbol and PAPR is further reduced with the clipping scheme. The performance of the hybrid scheme is compared with the partial transmit sequence which is one of the other PAPR reduction scheme. In partial transmit sequence the input data is divided in to disjoint blocks transformed in to time domain sequence and rotated by phase factors. Theoretical analysis and simulation results validate that the proposed scheme has the ability to provide large PAPR reduction, low bit error rate. Performance analysis is also done with the partial transmit sequence scheme.
Atradius Country Report - United Kingdom – April 2014Salih Yilmaz
Main economic developments
Economic growth will accelerate further in 2014
According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the last quarter of 2013 the UK’s GDP increased 0.7% on the
previous quarter (see chart below) and 1.7% for the full year - well above expectations at the beginning of 2013.
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Highlights
• 6.1% growth in 2009-10Q1, drought restricts potential ahead
• Construction and services power growth while manufacturing picks up
• Need to target rabi crop as monsoon deficit stands currently at 25%
• Growth estimated at 6.6% this fiscal, inflation bigger worry
• While food price pressure will ease by winter, commodities set to rise e.g steel
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
Throughout the gloom of last year, we have been optimistic about the growth in India, our estimates of more than 6% growth this year were amongst the highest while finance whizzes were busy forecasting dire numbers in the range of 4-6%. In our January newsletter we had said that by the second half of this year, there would be an overall improvement. We had also cautioned that a deflationary situation that was being discussed was of little import here where inflation would be the prime worry. As the months passed and the revival became more apparent, estimates were rapidly revised upwards, both of growth and inflation. Though some find this surprising, we maintain, that this was all predictable, as was the downturn, and as is the inflationary environment in coming months.
As we go ahead, growth will show ‘surprising’ levels, e.g. the IIP numbers can get close to 10% - on the back of low base of last year, electricity and mining are doing better this year, vehicle sales are soaring with domestic festival demand etc. We see no reason to cheer though. The past year has taken a heavy toll on the finances of the government and investment plans in the private sector, consumer confidence has also been hit hard, while inflation has eaten gaping holes in the common man’s wallet. Moreover, the true impact of the poor monsoon will be known only by the year end. The financial sector types meanwhile are having a field day once more, rapidly pushing up spirits and stock markets. Some are even getting into debates on whether this slowdown would take the shape of a V, U, W, or the Riemann’s zeta function, as Bloomberg columnist Moynihan quipped.
It is important to remember though that the ‘green shoots’ which are growing tall now have sprung up in response to fiscal stimuli and rate cuts worldwide, not through any change in fundamental factors. Work is on towards changing standards of regulation and supervision internationally, but these will take time to be implemented. In the meanwhile, we have to point out that we are now tired of stressing on one issue - that such high levels of expenditures, in India and abroad, are inflationary whatever way one tries to handle it. Expectedly, the rational components of financial markets recognize this problem and we are seeing significant upward pressure on interest rates. This is a natural outcome of government over-spending.
There is a possibility that to get around this problem this government may try to borrow from abroad. And if that happens on a large enough scale, the final degree of freedom that the government will have, would have been used up. We therefore do not support such an initiative, despite its short term advantages of keeping upward interest rate pressures under check. Note that India has done something similar in the past (during the Rajiv Gandhi years) when it borrowed internationally and spent on unproductive activities. For a few years things looked very good, but pressures were building. The ruling conglomeration in the post Rajiv Gandhi years just did not have the ability to handle the pressures so generated. We all know the final outcome.
At the end of the day we cannot spend this much without paying for it one way or another. And it is better to pay by way of lower investment, higher interest and prices, rather than macro-economic instability. But the first best solution remains the same - don’t spend on unproductive activities please.
PS. Please visit our new homepage for interactive time series graphs of economic indicators
Focus of the Month: Employment and Skill Development
One of the key factors driving India’s impressive growth
rate is the demographic dividend, based on a workforce
that will continue to grow into the middle of the century
and power our saving and investment rates. Moreover,
the evolving demographics unambiguously point out that
India will remain a young nation and the largest contributor
to the global workforce over the next few decades
- an exceptional strength compared to the rapidly ageing
population in the Western countries, and that in China,
owing to its one-child policy. The rise in its working-age
population, however, is necessary but not sufficient for
India to sustain its economic growth. If India does not
create enough jobs and its workers are not adequately
prepared for those jobs, its demographic dividend may
turn into a liability. While employment is one side of the
challenge, employability is the obverse. The skill development
endeavor has to be accelerated and greatly scaled
up in a joint effort of Government, industry and civil society.
In view of the increasing importance of both employment
and skill development of labour force in India,
in this month’s Focus of the Month, we cover this crucial
issue in detail.
The MNI India Business Sentiment is an authoritative indicator of the current pace of overall growth in India. It is based on a monthly poll of Indian executives and delivers an update on all the latest business trends.
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Indonesia’s Economic Growth for 3Q Remained Buoyan...Kyna Tsai
During the period of 1–15 November, Indonesia reported its economic growth rate (real GDP growth rate) for 3Q at 5.1%, levelling off from the 5.0% for 2Q. The central banks of Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines decided to maintain their policy interest rates at their respective monetary policy meetings. Retail sales in Singapore were affected by seasonal factors and showed negative growth for the first time in seven months. For more information, refer to the list of macroeconomic indices released over 1–15 November at the end of this report.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
Performance of Multiple symbol representation with clipping scheme for PAPR r...ijsrd.com
OFDM is one of the multicarrier modulation technique used in various communication systems. The major problem one faces while implementing this system is the high peak to average power .For an efficient OFDM system this PAPR should be low. In this paper a hybrid PAPR (peak to average power ratio) reduction technique for the OFDM (orthogonal frequency division multiplexing) signal which combines a multiple symbol representations method with a signal clipping method is proposed. In multiple symbol representations alternative signaling points are used to represent one symbol and PAPR is further reduced with the clipping scheme. The performance of the hybrid scheme is compared with the partial transmit sequence which is one of the other PAPR reduction scheme. In partial transmit sequence the input data is divided in to disjoint blocks transformed in to time domain sequence and rotated by phase factors. Theoretical analysis and simulation results validate that the proposed scheme has the ability to provide large PAPR reduction, low bit error rate. Performance analysis is also done with the partial transmit sequence scheme.
Indian cement industry has passed through many ups and down. It was under strict
government control till 1982. Subsequently, it was partially decontrolled and in 1989, the
industry was opened for free market competition along with withdrawal of price and
distribution controls. Finally, the industry was completely de-licensed in July 1991 under the
policy of economic liberalization and the industry witnessed spectacular growth in production
as well as capacity.
The Economic Freedom of the States of India 2012 estimates economic freedom in the 20 biggest Indian states, based on data for 2011. The aim of this report—to measure the level of economic freedom within India—grows out of a larger project begun in the 1980s by the Fraser Institute and culminating in the annual Economic Freedom of the World
report (co-published by the Cato Institute in the United States). That exercise has proved fruitful in establishing a strong empirical relationship between economic freedom and prosperity, growth, and improvements in the whole range of indicators of human well being. The global report has also produced an explosion of research by leading universities, think tanks and international organisations on the critical role of economic freedom to human progress, including its importance to sustaining civil and political liberty. The Cato Institute is pleased to co-publish the present report on India with Indicus Analytics and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation at a time when both India’s high growth prospects and its commitment to reform have come under scrutiny.
The main highlights of this study are as follows.
1. The top state in India in economic freedom in 2011 was Gujarat. It displaced Tamil Nadu, which had been the top state in 2009. Gujarat’s freedom index score has been rising fast, and at 0.64 it is now far ahead of second-placed Tamil Nadu (0.56). Madhya Pradesh (0.56) is close behind in third position, Haryana (0.55) retains fourth position and Himachal (0.53) retains fifth position.
2. The bottom three states in 2011 were, in reverse order, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. In 2009, the reverse order was Bihar, Uttarakhand and Assam. Uttarakhand has moved up sharply from 19th to 14th position, and this improved freedom is reflected in its average GDP growth rate of 12.82 per cent in 2004-2011, the fastest among all states. This is an impressive achievement for a once-backward state.
3. Earlier the median score for economic freedom for all states had declined from 0.38 in 2005 to 0.36 in 2009. But it has now improved substantially to 0.41 in 2011. This is good news. Still the median score lags way behind Gujarat’s 0.64, so other states have a long way to go.
4. The biggest improvement has been registered by Madhya Pradesh. Its freedom index score rose from 0.42 in 2009 to 0.56 in 2011, enabling it to move up from 6th to 3rd position. This improved economic freedom was associated with acceleration in its GDP growth. This averaged 6 per cent per year from 2004-2009, but then accelerated to 9 per cent per year in 2009-2011.
5. The biggest decline in economic freedom has been recorded by Jharkhand, which slumped from 8th to 19th position. Its score declined from 0.38 to 0.31. Unsurprisingly, its GDP growth has averaged only 4.6 per cent in 2004-2011, one of the lowest among all states . Jharkhand has special problems as a heavily forested state suffering from Maoist insurrections.
India’s strong consumption story relies on its demographic structure, which, at this
point in time, is highly favourable compared to most other emerging nations. As per
the UN population statistics, this favourable demographic dividend will last for another
25–30 years. Before that, most other emerging nations would have already begun to
witness a slowdown in the growth of young (working-age) population.
The ensuing benefits with regard to the rising income and household spending would
provide a significant boost to the consumption-driven growth story of India. A glimpse
of the changing pattern of India’s consumption is already visible in the breakdown
of private final consumption spending data provided by the government. There is
a marked increase in spending on lifestyle products and services such as hotels,
mobiles, transportation and other miscellaneous goods. As against that, spending on
essentials has only remained stable.
International retailers are well aware of these benefits that the Indian economy offers.
Barring few legislative challenges that could be tackled through the policy reforms and
opening up of the retail sector, retailers have often expressed their intention to enter
and invest in India’s attractive retail sector. This is very well reflected in AT Kearney’s
Global Retail Development Index 2012, where India ranks as the fifth most attractive
retail market for international retailers. The retail sector is a significant contributor to India’s economic activity. Though a
direct measurement of the retail sector is difficult to derive through government
statistics, the trade, hotels and restaurant sectors come close to giving us an
estimate of its contribution. That component, in which retail (both organised and
unorganised) is the dominant activity, accounts for around 18% of India’s GDP.
Within the services sector of India, this component is the largest contributor
to the economy. Many institutions, however, may not agree with this possibly
understated measurement of the retail sector, as it may not accurately account
for the unorganised sector. For instance, as per the estimates of the Associated
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM) presented in one of its retail
reports of 2012, the contribution of both organised and unorganised retail stood
at 22% of GDP. This would mean that Indian retail sector size should measure
closer to INR 19.2 trillion in 2012. Leading research institutions such as AT
Kearney and ASSOCHAM estimate this sector to grow at around 15% y-o-y over
the next three–five years as against a 12%–13% nominal growth of India’s GDP
estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Going by that logic, the retail
sector should reach a size of INR 34 trillion by 2016. This is a significant growth.
The sector is also an important contributor towards the socioeconomic well-being
of the economy as it employs close to 9.4% of India’s labour force, as per the
association.
The Case for Increasing FDI Caps in Insurance
The history of India’s political economy is replete with missed opportunities. The approach to growth and investment has been often stranded in the many romantic notions of selfreliance and what constitutes national interest. In every
decade since Independence, the approach to foreign direct investment has been influenced by a mistrust triggered by a colonial hangover. Every time India has opened its doors – or windows if you please – to foreign investment, it has been characterised by gradualism in the wake of much opposition. The debates around opening or expanding FDI are similar – as it was when telecom or banking opened up for foreign investment. What is important to recognise is that every such initiative has been beneficial, delivering greater common good.
Higher economic growth is driven by competition and consumer choice. Competition drives efficiency and efficiency drives growth. This is true of every country that has done well economically. It is also true of India since 1991, in segments where competition has been introduced. Any attempt to artificially introduce protection always has costs. Inefficient producers are protected, but at the expense of consumers. Consumers suffer from higher prices,bad service and limited choice. This is straightforward under-graduate economic theory. The gains to inefficient producers are more than neutralized by losses to consumers, leading to an overall deadweight welfare loss to the country.
In this argument, the colour of the competition, whether it is domestic or foreign, does not matter. In addition, there is the macroeconomic argument about a current account deficit having to be met through capital account inflows and non-debt-creating FDI inflows are preferable to debt-creating capital inflows. While these broad arguments about competition and FDI are accepted, the question to ask is, why should the insurance sector not be subject to these compelling arguments? Is there anything special about insurance that rational arguments should not be applied to
this sector? In every sector where India has opened up to FDI, be it manufacturing or be it services, two propositions are empirically evident. First, liberalization helps consumers. Second, fears about inefficient producers being eliminated are also vastly exaggerated.
Instead, producers of goods and services adapt and survive, based on access to capital, technology, knowhow, improved management practices and customer orientation. Therefore, protection not only harms the cause of consumers, it also harms the cause of producers. There is no reason why insurance should be treated differently. And economic logic and rationale should not be conditional on whether one is within the government or is in opposition.
Under the Indicus Urban Consumer Expenditure Spectrum, the bottom of the pyramid in urban India is comprised of households that earn less than Rs. 1.5 lakh per annum. This class forms the bulk of the population in cities, but contributes less than 15% of total urban income and less than 10% of total urban savings. Household sizes are typically smaller than in the more affluent classes. One reason is that there are many migrants in this segment; with little skills and low education, their earning opportunities are low, albeit they supplement family incomes in the villages. Northern states, however, have larger household sizes within the segment.
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
Highlights
• Economic slump has bottomed out – expect slow recovery ahead
• 2009-10 growth forecasts will be revised upwards by most as the year progresses
• Expectations of global growth resurgence fuels commodities and crude prices
• Dollar dives, rupee surges to 47 - more trouble for exporters ahead
• Fuel price deregulation on the cards
• But all is not well – and overheated stock markets need to cool a bit
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers all seem to be looking up, the stock markets all seem to be rising once again, and cheer is back. There is spring in the air. One wonders what happened suddenly to make everything so nice. Anyhow, things as predicted are improving – largely because of heavy government interventions internationally. The lower interest rates in India are also starting to have their impact – this was all predicted, as interest rate reductions take some time to play out. But what is also predicted is that things will take a few months more to stabilise - we estimate growth for this financial year to be an unexciting 6.6%.
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Moreover different Indicus products allow the users to choose the granularity-level they desire to work in. They can analyze consumer demography and market related data and derive insights at the level of a state, district, cities (of various tiers), block, neighbourhood, pin code, and now as finely as a one square kilometer area. At every geographic level, a range of marketing relevant demographic and economic data, derived from highly authentic public data sources, are analyzed and presented.
The phenomenon of increased urbanization in India is facing one of its foremost challenges in the form of disparity between redistribution of economic opportunity and growth. The centre of poverty is gradually shifting towards urban centres and this situation is further worsened by already high population densities, poor infrastructure and a general lack of effective housing policy and provisioning for the poor. The Census of India 2011 suggests that 66% of all statutory towns in India have slums, with 17.4% of total urban households currently residing. However, this estimate of slums takes into account certain criteria set by the Census for a settlement to be featured as a slum. A large proportion of households who are living in similar or poorer dwelling conditions than those living in slums have been omitted. This study encompasses all those settlements that comply with the definition of slums (as given by the Census of India) as well as those with similar or poorer dwelling conditions that those of slums as ‘Informal Settlements’, because these are primarily dwelling units where most of the urban poor live. Interventions should be targeted at all these informal settlements instead of only slums as defined by the Census, since the quality of life and infrastructure in these informal settlements are similar to those of slums.
The objective of the present study is to look into the contribution of informal settlement households to urban economy. The primary reason for looking at this particular question is to determine whether the informal settlement households, who normally form the poor strata of the urban population, do contribute to the urban economy to a significant extent or not. If they do contribute to urban economy, whether providing proper urban services to them should be treated as their legitimate right? For greater comprehension, this study attempts to discover the role of informal settlement population as a productive agent in urban economy, which is in contrast to the general notion that this section of population is “burden to the city.”
PREDICTING GROWTH OF URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS THROUGH FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF GEO-SPATIAL DATA
Location Analytics is one of the fastest emerging fields in the broad area of Business Intelligence/Data Science. By
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In view of this, we present an approach based on Fractal Analysis (FA) of highly granular geo-spatial data.
Specifically, we use proprietary data available at approximately1 square km level for New Delhi, India provided by Indicus Analytics (India’s leading economic data analytics firm based in New Delhi). We compare and contrast the patterns and insights generated using the FA approach with other more traditional approaches such as spatial to correlation and structural similarity indices. Preliminary results indicate that there are indeed “selfsimilar” local patterns that are completely missed by spatial correlation that are accurately captured by the more sophisticated FA approach. These patterns provide deep insights into the underlying socio-economic and demographic processes and can be used to predict the spatial distribution of these variables in the future. For example, questions such as what are the pockets of population growth in a city and how will businesses and government respond to that growth can be answered using the proposed approach.
So the Food Security Bill is through. More than two thirds of the country’s population has now been promised highly subsidized food. Congress and UPA will get a couple of extra percent points of votes, add another 2-3 percentage points because of the good monsoons and you get a good enough swing for it to come back next year. The BJP was checkmated as it was impossible for it to play its usual flawless doublespeak.
I am asked what could be bad about ensuring elimination of hunger and malnutrition. I would like to ask a counter question? What is good about theFood Security Bill?
It promises to finally eliminate hunger and malnutrition, they say. How? Because now the poor can buy wheat, rice and coarse cereal at highly subsidized rates. How will the poor be identified I ask; that will happen they say. Where will the poor buy from I ask; the Public Distribution System (PDS)they say. Where? I ask again. The PDS shop, they say. And why will the PDS shop now suddenly start working when it has not for so many decades? Because now it’s a right, and people can demand redressal from the courts, they say.
So let’s grant this – the PDS will now start to function because the government will better use better technology. They will use GIS, GPS, perhaps Aadhar card and biometrics, etc. and this will eliminate the problems that the PDS system has. How will it work? The government will buy grains from production centres, store and transport them to consumption centres, and then sell them at subsidized rates through the public distribution system. Each of these will cost. Of course the PDS system itself will need to be strengthened almost everywhere. This will also cost. The high-tech sounding technology is not costless; the Aadhar number needs biometric identification, etc. etc. All of this will cost a lot. A paper coming from the government’s own Commission for Agri Cost and Prices (CACP) puts the total figure at about 682 thousand crores over a three year period. It is highly unlikely that the government can spend this, and the system cannot work well unless it is implemented very well. Chidambaram fighting his needless forex battles cannot loosen the purse strings. And even if he did, no one in this government has the ability to implement it. And without some serious money backed by serious project management skills the subsidized food will not reach where it is intended to. There will therefore be leakages. The estimated leakage itself is about 200 thousand crore by the CACP. I think it will be more as leakage is not only amount getting diverted, but also the amount wasted. When the numbers are so high it is obvious what kind of people will like to get into politics and into the government, and which ones would stay away.But these are all nitty-gritties of implementation. The Food Security Bill is inherently flawed in many other ways.Who will have control over this whole process?
Education is clearly important in tapping the so-called demographic dividend. There is nothing automatic about a demographic dividend materializing. Among other things, that is a function of health and education outcomes. More specifically, there is question of skills. The overall skills deficit has often been flagged. For instance, in 2002, the S.P. Gupta Special Group constituted by the Planning Commission stated, “It should be noted, however, that on the average the skilled labour force at present is hardly around 6-8 per cent of the total, compared to more than 60 per cent in most of the developed and emerging developing countries.” In 2001, the Montek Singh Ahluwalia Task Force , again constituted by the Planning Commission, stated, “Only 5% of the Indian labour force in this age category has vocational skills.” While the numbers are marginally different, the Eleventh Five Year Plan document adds the following. “The NSS 61st Round results show that among persons of age 15-29 years, only about 2% are reported to have received formal vocational training and another 8% reported to have received non-formal vocational training indicating that very few young persons actually enter the world of work with any kind of formal vocational training.” Among the youth, most of those with formal training are in Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. A better indicator of a State’s performance is the share of the young population that has some variety of formal training. In this, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh perform well. Is this because there is better training capacity and infrastructure? Is it because industrial activity exists in these States? Is it because there is a positive correlation between some minimum level of educational attainment and acquisition of formal training? The answer is probably a combination of various factors.
Growth StoryG rowth is never an end in itself. It is a means to an end, especially because by growth one typically means growth in gross State domestic product (GSDP). In the context of a country, GSDP is akin to GDP (gross domestic product), the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a fixed time period,typically one year. GDP isn’t the same as GNI (gross national income), since GNI also includesnet factor income from abroad. The principle is no different for a State and GSDP is notnecessarily the same as gross state income (GSI). The difference can be important for a Statewhere migration and remittances are major variables. However, having accepted the point, oneis stuck, since no credible estimates exist for GSI. One only has figures on GSDP and mustaccept it as a surrogate indicator. GSDP figures are compiled by Directorates of Economics andStatistics of different State governments. They are then “vetted” by Central StatisticalOrganization (CSO) and finalized. GSDP figures can be in current prices, or in constant prices.If we do not wish to get carried away by inflation, we should focus on constant price numbers.In the present case, this means that everything is expressed in 2004-05 prices.
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Household consumption patterns depend on many factors, and the age of the chief wage earner is a key determinant. The Indicus Indian Urban Consumer Spectrum classifies urban households into three broad categories: younger years, in which the chief wage earner is predominantly less than 34 years of age; middle years, in which the chief wage earner is mainly in the age group of 35 to 54, and mature years, households in which the chief wage earner is usually over the age of 54.
At each life stage, there are different income and consumption patterns; as the chief wage earner moves into the older years, the family structure also changes. So the category of younger years does not necessarily denote younger households; in fact, households in mature years have more than 40% of its population under the age of 18.
Creating consumer segments by the age of the chief wage earner of the household reveals patterns that are otherwise hidden in data. Take for instance occupations—the sector that employs the highest share of chief wage earners in younger and middle years is manufacturing, which takes up a lower share for chief wage earners in mature years. On the other hand, manufacturing falls to second slot for chief wage earners in mature years; and more interestingly, public administration/defence accounts for the third largest share of employment in this segment. This does point to the changing structure of employment over time, and also gives an indication of the income and consumption behaviour of these households.
Then there is the size of the household—households where the chief wage earner is in his younger years are to a large extent small in size; close to 60% are single member households—the earning member in the city is single or married and living away from his family. This is the smallest segment, comprising less than 15% of urban households, and around 5% of urban population. The largest segment, which accounts for more than 60% of urban households, is those in which chief wage earners are in their mature years; here, a majority have five or more members and almost a quarter have more than two earning members. This, therefore, forms a bulk of urban consumer spends; and, since it includes senior citizens as well as minors, it caters to the needs of all age groups.
The segment in which chief wage earners are in their middle years accounts for more than a quarter of urban households. This segment stands out as the one in which almost all households have minors; this would, therefore, be extremely cued into the needs of growing children—whether it comes to education, food or entertainment, it is in these households that children rule.
The younger years segment feeds into the others as chief wage earners marry, or bring their families to the cities and have children, save to buy houses, two-wheelers, cars and so on, and the maturity of the chief wage earner naturally shows up in higher incomes and asset penetration across the groups.
mall durables—the little items that personalize households and make each home different—can be divided into four main groups: furniture and fixtures, household appliances, recreational goods, and other personal goods including mobile handsets, watches, clocks, plastic goods and decorative items. As a group, they account for less than 2% of total household expenses, as other basic necessities such as food, travel and rent take up the bulk of the budget.
The largest sub-groups in this category are other personal goods and household appliances, accounting for more than 80% and 11%, respectively, of the total expense within the group. There are variations across states. In Chandigarh, Goa and Kerala, household appliances take up close to 20% of the expenses in this category, double the average.
Within this group of small durables, there is a wide variety, with prices and brands to suit every pocket, and as households move up the income ladder, they spend on higher-value items within the group; per-household annual expense on small durables, therefore, rises from Rs. 1,255 on an average in the lowest income segment, which are households earning less than Rs. 1.5 lakh a year, to Rs. 11,807 in the highest income segment of households earning more than Rs. 10 lakh a year.
With technology based solutions seen as key to achieving financial inclusion, the role of e-money becomes important in reaching out to the unbanked masses. While regulatory space in India has been slowing opening up to allow non-banks to act as e-money issuers and prudential norms are in place, regulatory concerns remain regarding the safety of customer funds and the potential impact of e-money on monetary aggregates. The regulator’s dilemma, as described by David Porteous, is whether or not to implement measures that may hinder expansion of access to nonusers in the interest of greater protection for those who already have access, and it is for each country to evolve models and practices appropriate to their economy. It is however instructive to absorb lessons from international experiences that exemplify how regulations can evolve to meet the challenges involved in non-bank e-money issuers, all with the aim of bringing about universal financial inclusion.
M-PESA is a mobile based transfer of money between customers, facilitated by network of retail agents. Kenya is the first country to have adopted M-PESA where the model witnessed huge success and is contributing big way in enabling financial inclusion in the country. Deployment of M-PESA in India can bring similar benefits as experienced in Kenya. Growing mobile penetration in rural areas would ensure that people are able to benefit from mobile based money transfer concept. Indian regulatory system has also been gearing up to allow technology benefits in enabling financial inclusion, developments are only at introductory stage.
Sustaining the development of the country will require current levels of growth to trickle down to the poorest and more excluded of society. A critical way to extend these benefits will be to bring people into the formal sector of finance, whereby they may have more reliable and cheaper access to their financial needs of remittances, savings, borrowings etc. Many models have been suggested as alternatives to traditional branch banking, the current penetration of which is abysmally low. Options include mobile banking, enlisting business correspondents, encouraging MFIs, etc., and each option has its strengths and weaknesses. The models with the greatest potential for the future should be able to leverage on existing retail networks and the rapidly expanding ICT (information and communication technology) platform. As such, the BC model, clubbed with m-banking technology, holds the greatest promise to achieving universal inclusion and steps must be taken to encourage its sustained proliferation
The organized sector in India created 704,800 jobs between January 2011 and June 2011 and 369,200 more jobs are expected to be created by September 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave2.
The survey was conducted among 690 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The respondents included members of senior management and HR professionals who were questioned on specific areas relating to hiring plans across various timelines, manpower requirements for the current quarter vis-à-vis the last two quarters, and their views on how they see the job market to be in the year 2011. While the Indian economy is passing through a delicate phase with certain sectors looking at a bleak market in the near future, there are others who have performed well and continue to perform as per predictions made in the beginning of the year, thus reflecting buoyancy among employers.
According to the survey, the Healthcare sector has remained the largest employment generator with 1, 15,000 jobs created in H1, followed by the Hospitality sector with 94,000 jobs created during the same period. The IT/ITeS sector, which witnessed a turnaround in 2010-11 by posting a double digit growth, continues to grow at the same pace and has added 91,000 jobs in H1. In the cities, New Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai continue to lead the job market job generating 1,39,700 jobs between January and June 2011, as predicted earlier this year
According to the five income-segment classification of the Indicus urban consumer expenditure spectrum, in the second rung of affluence, or the upper middle class, among urban Indian households are those who earn between Rs. 5 lakh and Rs. 10 lakh annually. The population in these households comprise a little less than 10% of all urban households, but contribute around one-fifth of the total urban savings.
It is the upper-income segments that form the big savers of the country, with high-disposable incomes, making them attractive markets for financial products. They are also the spenders in the high value category, contributing to about 17% of urban consumer expenditure in India. While this share is approximately the same as the lowest two income segments, being a relatively smaller segment, expenditure per household would be relatively higher. Moreover, the type of goods and services consumed would, of course, be quite different across the income segments.
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
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Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
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Enterprise Excellence is a holistic approach that's aimed at achieving world-class performance across all aspects of the organization.
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Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
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A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
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Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
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Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
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Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
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1. Indicus Analytics, An Economics Research Firm
http://indicus.net/Newsletter/Emerging_Economy.aspx
The Emerging Economy
– Monthly Newsletter from Indicus
Analytics
6th August 2009
Indian Economy Next Quarter
Rains still not favouring India’s granary in the northwest,
August rains key now
Pressure on pulses prices set to ease with imports and
higher crop by winter
RBI holds rates, but inflationary pressures will force its
hand by last quarter
Commodity prices set to rise as global growth signs turn
more positive
High government borrowings pushing bond yields upwards
Subdued dollar as emerging economies show more
promise this year
India : Kal, aaj aur kal
As we have been emphasising in the past few newsletters,
despite the negative WPI inflation numbers, all is not calm
on the inflation front. Right now attention has focused on
inflation in food articles and manufactured food products,
standing provisionally at 9.7% and 8.5% for the week
ending July 25th. Consumer price indices for June are also
registering higher inflation than previous months, CPI AL
for instance stands at 11.52% inflation; this is on top of
the 8.77% rate in June 2008. Clearly, the government’s
‘touchy feely’ talk on being the saviour of the poor has
2. Indicus Analytics, An Economics Research Firm
http://indicus.net/Newsletter/Emerging_Economy.aspx
been negated by inflation. Could the government have
done anything different? We believe it could have and
should have. By preferring to reduce emphasis on the
consequences of a high fiscal deficit on inflation, the
government has done a great disservice to the country.
This quarter’s story will be repeated for many quarters to
come. Though the focus on price rise will change from
product to product over time, there is no doubt that we
are heading for higher levels of inflation in general. Right
now the story is about pulses, and within that mainly tur.
Prices of tur or arhar have risen 45% in the WPI since Jan,
other pulses are in double digit rises, except gram. The
problem with tur specifically is because last year’s output
was 25% lower than the previous year. But tur being a
crop that survives when rain is inadequate, going ahead,
the high prices and low rain have already raised acreage
sown under this crop this year. Import tenders have also
been floated, pressures on the prices of tur will therefore
lessen by winter. Meanwhile rain is still deficient in the
granary of India, but stocks of rice and wheat are high.
The problems therefore appear less this year but will
aggravate in the year ahead, especially if rains fail the Met
prediction in August.
As we have said time and again, the time is past for just
pushing money in the hands of people, without raising
production and productivity levels – If Punjab and
Haryana get through this poor monsoon with a halfway
decent crop, it will be thanks to the irrigation systems set
in years or decades ago. So what can a soft-hearted
government do?
Economic policy requires hard headedness at its very
foundations. Want to give 100 rupees to the poor? Go
ahead, but get Rs. 100 productive asset out of it. Want to
give more money to government servants? Then get them
to deliver that much. And it is possible to do so. A large
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majority of government staff provide services of some
type – education, health care, water supply, safety and
security, justice, etc. Their output is measurable and it is
possible to link salary increases with their output
improvements. And all of these have direct productivity
benefits for the country. But we hear of no such talk.
What is this government scared of? It has no opposition.
Issues of inflation, upward pressures on interest rates,
weakening currency apart from pressures on the fisc are
here to stay for many years to come. The point is we are
stuck with higher levels of inflation in the year ahead, the
RBI has already raised its estimate to 5% and will need to
raise it further still as time goes by; one after the other,
more spikes will be seen in some products which might
eventually abate, but overall inflationary pressures cannot
be wished away. As global growth picks up, prices of
commodities will also pick up, thereby impacting the
manufacturing sector pricing as well. It is better we are
prepared for all of this. Governments internationally had
gone in for unbridled spending in the past, hoping that
growth will create a pie large enough, but when that did
not pan out, the poor and underprivileged had to suffer
the most. Soft-heartedness and hard-headedness can go
together.
Sumita Kale and Laveesh Bhandari
Sumita Kale is Chief Economist, and Laveesh
Bhandari is Director, Indicus Analytics. They can be
contacted at sumita@indicus.net and laveesh@indicus.net
Economic Growth
IIP showed subdued but better growth in industrial sector
in May at 2.7% provisionally, with February’s growth was
revised upwards from the initial negative 1.2% to a final
positive 0.7%.
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Infrastructure sector performed well in June, raising
production by 6.5%, as compared to the growth of 5.1%
last year – cement, electricity, crude oil and coal outdid
their previous year’s growth rates in June.
The Markit PMI Survey shows July output levels in the
manufacturing sector at similar levels to June, the index
stood at 55.3 indicating growth. The new orders index
rose to 59.75, the highest level in nine months.
The Fourth Advance Estimates for 2008-09 agricultural
production puts growth in foodgrain output at 1.3% higher
than the previous year, compared to the last estimate that
showed negligible increase in output.
Wheat production is now estimated higher in 2008-09 by
3%, compared to the previous estimate of a decline by
1%.
Pulses output fell by 0.7% as tur took a substantial hit last
year, sugarcane fell by 22.1%, cotton by 10.5% and
groundnut by 23.4% - putting pressure on prices of these
commodities this year.
Cement production in June rose by 13.01% while
dispatches rose by 12.84%.
Media reports indicate that Maruti sales rose by 33.36% in
July over the last year, Mahindra and Mahindra reported
vehicle sales growth by 22.04% while Honda car sales
rose by 11.99%.
Rail freight traffic increased by 9.59% in June over the
previous year, higher than the 7.81% growth clocked in
June 2008.
Data from Airports Authority India shows that
international passenger air traffic to India has picked up,
rising by 3.9% in May over last year, while domestic
passenger air traffic has continued its decline by 5.9%
over last May.
Domestic freight however has risen by 3.5% in May over
the previous year, while bad export markets continue to
dog international freight, which declined by 4.3% in May
2009.
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Hiring in companies increased in June, over the previous
month, according to the Naukri Jobspeak Index, which
began conducting the survey in July 2008.
Rains in July increased the water levels in the 81 storage
reservoirs monitored by the CWC, however, storage levels
are still less, at 78% of the 10 year average.
Except for tur dal, maize and cotton, most crops are
reported lower acreage sown so far, bringing the total
kharif acreage sown by 24th July to 7.9% less than the
area sown the previous year.
Read:Bullish on China, India: Nouriel Roubini
Inflation
Provisional WPI estimates put inflation for the week
ending July 25th at a negative 1.58%. However significant
upward revisions have raised May inflation estimates by
one percentage point.
In June consumer price inflation rose, with the CPI AL
recording 11.52% yoy and CPI IW at 9.29%.
NCDEXAGRI index of spot prices of agricultural
commodities has risen by 8.35% over the period 11th
July-1st August.
Prices of tur and sugar have been rising over the past six
months on lower production last year.
International crude oil prices climbed down to touch
$58.25 a barrel on July 13th, but have since risen in the
range of 65-70 by the end of July, on positive global
economic data.
Read: When will tur dal touch Rs. 100/kg?
Read: Anxiety over food inflation
Interest Rates
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The 10 year benchmark gilt touched a low of 6.7978% on
July 17th but rose again to 6.9691% on July 31st.
While the RBI kept rates unchanged in its July end Credit
Review and signalled intention to maintain an
accommodative stance in liquidity, there was emphasis on
the need to begin withdrawing the looser credit policy, in
tandem with the government fiscal stance.
Rates therefore are seen to edge upwards by the end of
the fiscal, if growth and inflation estimates move higher.
High government borrowing, higher oil prices and a build
up in inflation will put an upward pressure on bond yields.
Read: Global Financial Crisis- Questioning the questions
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meddling
Read: Bernanke broke rules, Paulson fumbled, Fed
managed great panic
Exchange Rates
Exports in the month of June were 27.7% lower than the
previous year in dollar terms and 19.4% lower in rupee
terms, while imports fell by 29.3% in dollar terms and
21.2% in rupee terms.
Oil imports were 50.6% less in June compared to the
previous year, while non-oil imports fell by 16.5% on
account of slower growth this year.
Trade deficit for the period April-June 2009 stood at $15.5
billion, lower than the $28.6 billion last year, on account
of lower imports.
Forex reserves which had been falling due to capital
outflows with the global crisis have now an upward trend
since April, rising to $ 267.71 billion as on July 24th. This
is higher by $15.73 billion compared to March end and
lower by $38.89 billion over last July.
The dollar traded at its lowest against the pound and the
euro this year, on better than expected economic news
from Europe.
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The rupee ranged between 48 and 49.5 to a dollar during
July, as upward pressure has been curtailed by the RBI
and a subdued dollar.
Read: Dr. Subbarao as Tiger
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