Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are reducing the transaction costs of information gathering and distribution. This can be a powerful tool for citizens to protest against what they may perceive as social injustice. This paper endeavors to ascertain the impact of ICT on political stability. Scholars have long argued that various socio-cultural factors impact the political stability of a country. Our literature review identifies following factors as significant contributors: income per capita (poverty), education, corruption and freedom of expression. We conduct empirical tests based on the uniquely developed dataset to ascertain ceteris paribus, whether or not ICT plays a role as a facilitator to change the status quo.
Some recent studies suggest that social media via ICTs have contributed to the Arab Spring (Ghannam, 2011). However, various others have found evidence which shows that these technologies are not sufficient to lead to social unrest (Dewey, Kaden, Marks, Matsushima, & Zhu, 2012).
We thus expect that the relationships of social unrest with poverty, education, corruption and freedom of expression may lead to greater unrest as people can more easily organize. ICTs may shorten the time and frequency that people get organized. Hysteresis, which is the tendency to remain constant in spite of changes in the environment, reflects the delay that is seen in societies before they are willing to get engaged more visibly when faced with a problem. Researchers have found that knowing what others are doing may influence a person’s behavior. Before Information and communications technologies, however, it would have taken much longer for a person to know what other person is thinking. Today the public has many tools to communicate with people they don’t even know. With a keystroke, a person can easily information on practically any topic they wish. Using data from the World Bank and other international organizations we assemble a cross-national panel of dataset that tests the impact of ICTs on political stability (denoted by number of various types of protests in a country per year) in presence of the income, education, corruption and freedom of expression variables to see if these technologies have made governments more or less stable. The dataset has 10 years long data of these factors. We conduct a fixed effect logit regression analysis to ascertain the impact of ICT variables on social unrest of a country.
Based on the results of the empirical analysis we present a comprehensive framework that will help us understand the dynamics between ICTs, these factors, and social unrest. We conclude with policy recommendations
Information and Communication Technologies as Drivers of Social Unrest
1. INFORMATION AND
COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGIES AS
DRIVERS OF SOCIAL
UNREST
Martha Garcia-Murillo
(Syracuse University)
Marcio Wohlers
(State University of
Campinas – UNICAMP)
Moinul Zaber
(Carnegie Mellon
University doctoral
student)
7. CASTELLS (2013) CHARACTERISTICS
OF SM
(i) the movements are networked using the Internet and wireless devices that
allow for mass self-communication with powerful images;
(ii) these are horizontal
(iii) triggered by a spark
(iv) the movements become viral
(v) the conversion of indignation to an autonomous entity usually happens
through decisions taken in a space of autonomy;
(vi) they are self-reflexive and learning movements that constantly
questioning what they want, and the governance structure that can help
them avoid the pitfalls of failed movements;
(vii) generally they are nonviolent movements
MGARCIAM@SYR.EDU
ZABER_26@YAHOO.COM
MARCIO.WOHLERS@GM
8. SOCIAL UNREST DYNAMICS
MGARCIAM@SYR.EDU
ZABER_26@YAHOO.COM
MARCIO.WOHLERS@GM
FEAR precautionary behaviors such as
withdrawal
results in a delay between the
problem and the reaction
“ silent majority” ……
ANGER acts as a trigger to action.
To overcome fear is necessary to build a
protected space
to “mass individuals”
There are the emotional poles that push
individuals towards action and subsequently
these emotions can evolve into collective
action.
Mass
individuals
Silent majority
14. DATA
World Development Indicators
International Social Science Resource, produced by Witold J.
Henisz, who constructed the The Political Constraint Index Dataset
(POLCON III), ,where POLCON = 0 means minimum constraint or
most hazardous political environment, and POLCON = 1 means
maximum constraint or most stable political environment.
University of Illinois Urbana-Champagne which provides the
dependent variable, protest, which represents a weighted conflict index
taken from its Civil Unrest Data.
14
MGARCIAM@SYR.EDU
ZABER_26@YAHOO.COM
MARCIO.WOHLERS@GM
15. MODEL
𝑦 𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑢𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑡
= 𝛽0 + 𝑥𝑖1𝑡 𝛽1 + 𝑥𝑖2𝑡 𝛽2 + 𝑥𝑖3𝑡 𝛽3 + 𝑥𝑖4𝑡 𝛽4 + 𝑥𝑖5𝑡 𝛽5 + 𝑥𝑖6𝑡 𝛽6 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡
Where i indicates countries, t indicates years, 𝑦(𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑢𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡) is a binary
variable indicating regulatory decision (yes = 1, no = 0),
The independent variables. They are: Fixed Broadband Subscribers by 100
pop (fixed_bb100), GDP per Capita PPP (gdppercapPPP), Political Condition
Index (polconiii), Low and Order Situation (law_order), Population (pop), and
Mobile Subscribers (mobile_subscribers).
15
MGARCIAM@SYR.EDU
ZABER_26@YAHOO.COM
MARCIO.WOHLERS@GM
18. CONCLUSIONS
• This paper examines the relationship between ICT
condition and social unrest.
• Our main hypothesis is: as ICTs have decreased the
transaction cost of information gathering and distribution,
more people are getting enabled to join in team to protest
against the prevailing conditions.
• We find a positive and significant impact of ICTs and social
unrest.
• However, law and order also plays a vital role on social
unrest.
MGARCIAM@SYR.EDU
ZABER_26@YAHOO.COM
MARCIO.WOHLERS@GM
19. CONCLUSIONS
• The economic circumstances are important but are not the
only thing.
• Education still a mystery
Connectivity without good governance is a recipe
for disaster
MGARCIAM@SYR.EDU
ZABER_26@YAHOO.COM
MARCIO.WOHLERS@GM
