This paper investigates the relationship between social media and social conflict in Africa using statistical analysis. It analyzes how internet and mobile phone penetration rates affect the number of social conflict events in African countries from 2005-2010. The results show that higher internet and mobile phone rates are correlated with increased social conflicts. The paper provides context through a literature review on risk factors for conflict and theoretical frameworks explaining how social media could lower barriers to organizing protests.
Yono REKSOPRODJO, Fahmy YUSUF - Information Warfare in Cyberspace: The Sprea...REVULN
The rapid development of information and communication technology brings significant change to human life. In the past, people have been getting information through conventional media such as newspapers, radio, and television. Today, the public relies heavily on digital media consisting of social media and online media that are in the grip within the internet network which provides wide-ranging information in speedy manner. The phenomenon of hoaxes in social media is part of the information warfare in the cyberspace dimension. Hoaxes as tactic of choice in propaganda defined as misleading information attacks to various aspects, covering to include health, economy, disaster-events, and politics. People who are lacking in understanding propaganda tactics like how the news and information addressed in the digital media are often fooled by hoaxes that maybe appear as texts, pictures or videos. The spread of hoaxes may get uncontrollable due to the many parties who deliberately spread the hoaxes for a particular interest with anonymous accounts, fake accounts and so-called bots. The transmission of hoaxes as global phenomenon today, affecting many countries. Hoaxes that are spread in cyberspace are difficult to control without solid cooperation between government and society. This means of bad intension today by spreading news used as an asymmetric weapon extensively exercised during any political election period. This paper is about an analysis of hoax cases occurred in the time of Jakarta Gubernatorial Election 2017 as a case study.
How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using village-level data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure, a practice called Umuganda. This practice was highly politicized and, in the years before the genocide, regularly used for spreading political propaganda. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional
variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. These results pass a number of indirect tests of the exclusion restriction as well as other robustness checks and placebo tests.
Hate Speech and Nigeria’s Struggle for Democratic Consolidation: A Conceptual...Premier Publishers
Fake news and hate speech are not new to Nigerian democracy. However, since the internet revolution in recent decades, 2015 is seen as the year Nigeria finally woke up to the threat of fake news and hate speech fueled by internet technologies that are subtly used to undermine democracy. Since then, whenever national, state or local council elections approach, Nigeria experiences tense and difficult times – conflicts, media propaganda, hate comments and false information – circumstances that are inimical to the nation’s democracy. Despite fake news and hate have become global concepts, peculiarities of nations and cultures democracies imply that context-based tools will be more suitable to provide evidence-based data on their impact on democracies. To provide an understanding of the call-for-research epistemologies being developed in Nigerian academic circles, this paper presents a critical review of a book chapter titled Fake News, Hate Speech and Nigeria’s Struggle for Democratic Consolidation: A Conceptual Review written by two Nigerian scholars: Prof. Umaru A. Pate (Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria) and Adamkolo Mohammed Ibrahim (University of Maiduguri, Nigeria) published 2020 by IGI Global. The chapter provides a further understanding on the impacts and processes of fake news and hate speech in Nigeria, especially during political activities.
This document summarizes a study that compares two marginalized neighborhoods in Abuja, Nigeria - Dutse Apo, a non-violent neighborhood, and Durumi II, a violent neighborhood. The study examines the social mechanisms that support or mitigate violence prevention and control in these neighborhoods. Through interviews and focus groups, the researcher found that social institutions like social control, social capital, neighborhood leadership, socio-political interactions, and sense of community and belonging were important factors influencing violence. While the neighborhoods had similar socioeconomic characteristics, differences in these social institutions helped explain why one neighborhood experienced more violence than the other. The study contributes to understanding how local social contexts and mechanisms impact violence prevention beyond just national policies and histories.
This document discusses the effects of new media technologies on political communication. It begins by noting how new media has changed political communication patterns around the world. It then discusses key differences in political communication between developed and developing nations, noting issues like election violence are more common in developing states. A major section analyzes former US President Barack Obama's highly successful use of new media like websites and social media in his 2008 election campaign. The document concludes by examining two African elections in Ghana and Zimbabwe and how new media was used, with more success in Ghana's election.
Using individual data on voting and political parties manifestos in European coun- tries, we empirically characterize the drivers of voting for populist parties (the demand side) as well as the presence of populist parties (the supply side). We show that the economic insecurity drivers of the demand of populism are significant, especially when considering the key interactions with turnout incentives, neglected in previous studies. Once turnout effects are taken into account, economic insecurity drives consensus to populist policies directly and through indirect negative effects on trust and attitudes towards immigrants. On the supply side, populist parties are more likely to emerge when countries are faced with a systemic crisis of economic security. The orientation choice of populist parties, i.e., whether they arise on left or right of the political spec- trum, is determined by the availability of political space. The typical mainstream parties response is to reduce the distance of their platform from that of successful populist entrants, amplifying the aggregate supply of populist policies.
This document summarizes a paper that investigates how major changes in levels of democracy can lead to the polarization or marginalization of ethnic groups. The paper hypothesizes that rapid gains in democracy can politicize previously non-political ethnic identities, increasing the number of politically relevant ethnic groups. Conversely, rapid losses of democracy can marginalize or exclude certain ethnic groups from political participation and decision-making. Both outcomes could increase ethnic tensions and conflict risk. The document reviews literature on nationalism, nation-building, and state manipulation of ethnic relations. It proposes that during political transitions, governments may increase strategies to maintain control by marginalizing groups, even as rapid democratization could also politicize ethnicity and aggravate ethnic cleav
Indexing theory of political mass communication - Prepared by Fiza Zia Ul HannanDr. Fiza Zia Ul Hannan
The document discusses the relationship between media and foreign policy. It outlines several key theories on this relationship, including Walter Lippmann's view that the public is dependent on media for information, Bernard Cohen's argument that media can become instruments of public officials, and the indexing hypothesis proposed by Bennett that media coverage reflects the range of views among elites. The indexing hypothesis suggests media give more attention to elite viewpoints and are more critical when elites disagree. Several studies provide empirical evidence supporting indexing theory, though some critics argue it overlooks the possibility journalists may take independent stances.
Yono REKSOPRODJO, Fahmy YUSUF - Information Warfare in Cyberspace: The Sprea...REVULN
The rapid development of information and communication technology brings significant change to human life. In the past, people have been getting information through conventional media such as newspapers, radio, and television. Today, the public relies heavily on digital media consisting of social media and online media that are in the grip within the internet network which provides wide-ranging information in speedy manner. The phenomenon of hoaxes in social media is part of the information warfare in the cyberspace dimension. Hoaxes as tactic of choice in propaganda defined as misleading information attacks to various aspects, covering to include health, economy, disaster-events, and politics. People who are lacking in understanding propaganda tactics like how the news and information addressed in the digital media are often fooled by hoaxes that maybe appear as texts, pictures or videos. The spread of hoaxes may get uncontrollable due to the many parties who deliberately spread the hoaxes for a particular interest with anonymous accounts, fake accounts and so-called bots. The transmission of hoaxes as global phenomenon today, affecting many countries. Hoaxes that are spread in cyberspace are difficult to control without solid cooperation between government and society. This means of bad intension today by spreading news used as an asymmetric weapon extensively exercised during any political election period. This paper is about an analysis of hoax cases occurred in the time of Jakarta Gubernatorial Election 2017 as a case study.
How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using village-level data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure, a practice called Umuganda. This practice was highly politicized and, in the years before the genocide, regularly used for spreading political propaganda. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional
variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. These results pass a number of indirect tests of the exclusion restriction as well as other robustness checks and placebo tests.
Hate Speech and Nigeria’s Struggle for Democratic Consolidation: A Conceptual...Premier Publishers
Fake news and hate speech are not new to Nigerian democracy. However, since the internet revolution in recent decades, 2015 is seen as the year Nigeria finally woke up to the threat of fake news and hate speech fueled by internet technologies that are subtly used to undermine democracy. Since then, whenever national, state or local council elections approach, Nigeria experiences tense and difficult times – conflicts, media propaganda, hate comments and false information – circumstances that are inimical to the nation’s democracy. Despite fake news and hate have become global concepts, peculiarities of nations and cultures democracies imply that context-based tools will be more suitable to provide evidence-based data on their impact on democracies. To provide an understanding of the call-for-research epistemologies being developed in Nigerian academic circles, this paper presents a critical review of a book chapter titled Fake News, Hate Speech and Nigeria’s Struggle for Democratic Consolidation: A Conceptual Review written by two Nigerian scholars: Prof. Umaru A. Pate (Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria) and Adamkolo Mohammed Ibrahim (University of Maiduguri, Nigeria) published 2020 by IGI Global. The chapter provides a further understanding on the impacts and processes of fake news and hate speech in Nigeria, especially during political activities.
This document summarizes a study that compares two marginalized neighborhoods in Abuja, Nigeria - Dutse Apo, a non-violent neighborhood, and Durumi II, a violent neighborhood. The study examines the social mechanisms that support or mitigate violence prevention and control in these neighborhoods. Through interviews and focus groups, the researcher found that social institutions like social control, social capital, neighborhood leadership, socio-political interactions, and sense of community and belonging were important factors influencing violence. While the neighborhoods had similar socioeconomic characteristics, differences in these social institutions helped explain why one neighborhood experienced more violence than the other. The study contributes to understanding how local social contexts and mechanisms impact violence prevention beyond just national policies and histories.
This document discusses the effects of new media technologies on political communication. It begins by noting how new media has changed political communication patterns around the world. It then discusses key differences in political communication between developed and developing nations, noting issues like election violence are more common in developing states. A major section analyzes former US President Barack Obama's highly successful use of new media like websites and social media in his 2008 election campaign. The document concludes by examining two African elections in Ghana and Zimbabwe and how new media was used, with more success in Ghana's election.
Using individual data on voting and political parties manifestos in European coun- tries, we empirically characterize the drivers of voting for populist parties (the demand side) as well as the presence of populist parties (the supply side). We show that the economic insecurity drivers of the demand of populism are significant, especially when considering the key interactions with turnout incentives, neglected in previous studies. Once turnout effects are taken into account, economic insecurity drives consensus to populist policies directly and through indirect negative effects on trust and attitudes towards immigrants. On the supply side, populist parties are more likely to emerge when countries are faced with a systemic crisis of economic security. The orientation choice of populist parties, i.e., whether they arise on left or right of the political spec- trum, is determined by the availability of political space. The typical mainstream parties response is to reduce the distance of their platform from that of successful populist entrants, amplifying the aggregate supply of populist policies.
This document summarizes a paper that investigates how major changes in levels of democracy can lead to the polarization or marginalization of ethnic groups. The paper hypothesizes that rapid gains in democracy can politicize previously non-political ethnic identities, increasing the number of politically relevant ethnic groups. Conversely, rapid losses of democracy can marginalize or exclude certain ethnic groups from political participation and decision-making. Both outcomes could increase ethnic tensions and conflict risk. The document reviews literature on nationalism, nation-building, and state manipulation of ethnic relations. It proposes that during political transitions, governments may increase strategies to maintain control by marginalizing groups, even as rapid democratization could also politicize ethnicity and aggravate ethnic cleav
Indexing theory of political mass communication - Prepared by Fiza Zia Ul HannanDr. Fiza Zia Ul Hannan
The document discusses the relationship between media and foreign policy. It outlines several key theories on this relationship, including Walter Lippmann's view that the public is dependent on media for information, Bernard Cohen's argument that media can become instruments of public officials, and the indexing hypothesis proposed by Bennett that media coverage reflects the range of views among elites. The indexing hypothesis suggests media give more attention to elite viewpoints and are more critical when elites disagree. Several studies provide empirical evidence supporting indexing theory, though some critics argue it overlooks the possibility journalists may take independent stances.
יום חופש העיתונות שצויין אתמול ברחבי העולם, מוצא את חופש העיתונות בשפל של יותר מעשור, כשברחבי העולם מתגבר איום הטרור, לצד משברים פוליטיים והומניטריים ברחבי הגלובוס. ישראל מוגדרת כמדינה היחידה שבה יש חופש עיתונות במזרח התיכון לפי ארגון Freedom House אך היא דורגה במקום ה-61 בעולם במדד חופש העיתונות של הארגון.
E-politics from the citizens’ perspective. The role of social networking tool...Przegląd Politologiczny
The progress of civilization, supported by the development of new technologies, has led
to a series of social, economic and political changes. The information society, in its expectations and
through access to knowledge, has significantly affected a change in the model of democracy, causing
a kind of return to the original forms of communication in citizen-government relations. This has been
accompanied by a shift of social and civic activism from the real to the virtual world. In literature,
the use of information and communication technologies in the democratic system is named electronic
democracy. One of its forms is e-politics, which is implemented at several levels: institutional, system
and civil. A good example of the last type are the new social movements that in recent years have had
a significant impact on politics.
The basic research problem in this paper concerns e-politics from the citizens’ perspective, through
the activities of the new social movements, especially of a political nature. The main research goal
is therefore to present the role of social networking tools in influencing citizens and their subsequent
activities that have triggered changes in the political system. The methods used in the paper are case
study and comparative analysis.
This document provides an introduction and background to a book about the impact of social media on political parties and power balances. It discusses debates around social media's revolutionary potential in politics and notes most studies have focused on exceptional cases or US politics. The book aims to examine social media's impact on "normal politics" and power relations between parties using the Netherlands as a comparative case study.
Bennett’s hypothesis contradicts the popular image of the media as a watchdog; it constantly looks over the shoulders of the ones in power. However, Robinson’s model uses the indexing theory as a foundation but still opens up for instances when the media may assert influence on a policy decision (lapdog).
High coordination costs are often identified as the reason for the low quality of public goods available to the poor. We report findings from a unique combination of a village-randomized controlled trial and a lab-in-the-field experiment. An in-depth survey of 1,600 women before and after an intervention establishing membership-based organizations in one of the poorest districts in India shows that the presence of these groups increased villagers’ capacity to address water delivery problems, and improved access to, and quality of, water service. Public goods games with over 200 participants in a subset of control and treatment villages show that the presence of village groups increased cooperation among both members and non-members in treated villages. We find little evidence that cooperation is facilitated by more common tastes among group members. These results suggest that, in contrast to traditional community development programs, membership groups can help poor communities build social capital.
This document outlines a study examining the political participation of Latinos in the United States. It introduces the topic and establishes independent variables that may influence Latino participation, including ethnicity, generation, time in the US, education, socioeconomic status, and English proficiency. Hypotheses are presented expecting that socioeconomic status and language barriers will most impact participation. The dependent variable of wearing campaign buttons/signs is identified to measure non-voter participation among Latinos regardless of citizenship status.
American Government - Chapter 10 - Mediacyruskarimian
The document discusses the evolving relationship between media and politics in the United States over time. It describes how colonial newspapers promoted political discussion and independence, while the development of new printing technologies in the 1830s freed the press from financial dependence on political parties. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, sensationalistic "yellow journalism" and investigative "muckraking" journalism gained popularity before objectivity in reporting became emphasized. More recently, trends include declining newspaper readership, less news attention from young people who use social media more, and "narrowcasting" of tailored political messages.
The role of the media in promoting issue based politics.cmd. james gondiJames Gondi
The document discusses the role of the media, or "Fourth Estate", in promoting issue-based politics in Kenya. It notes that the media observes the political process to ensure it is not exploited, and influences political outcomes and candidates. However, the media faces challenges like stringent laws, ownership monopolies, and threats of violence. It also contends with issues in Kenyan politics like ethnicity dividing access to resources, and grand corruption undermining development. The document calls on political journalists to promote accountability, expose corruption, and investigate the misuse of public funds and political mobilization along ethnic lines.
The document analyzes the policy decisions of Al Gore and George W. Bush's campaigns during the 2000 Florida vote recount. It finds that both campaigns pursued manipulation but in different ways. Bush's campaign strictly used manipulation to attack Gore and achieve its goals. Gore's campaign took a multi-framework approach to manipulation, using efficiency and equity considerations to make defensive and expedient decisions, like requesting recounts in only four counties. The document concludes the campaigns showed two distinct strategies of manipulation focused on ultimately winning the presidency.
This document discusses the idea of implementing direct democracy at the federal level in the United States. It provides background on how direct democracy functions through initiatives, referendums, and recalls that are used in many states. The document examines arguments for and against direct democracy, looking at factors like political gridlock, citizen participation, minority representation, money influence, and interest groups. Examples of direct democracy being used successfully in states like California and countries like Switzerland are presented. Overall the document evaluates perspectives on instituting direct democracy at the national level to increase citizen voice and engagement in the political process.
Economic Inequality and Civilian Support for Democracy_Latin America and the ...nicpalmer101
This document is an honors project by Nicholos Palmer submitted in fulfillment of requirements for the Esther G. Maynor Honors College at the University of North Carolina at Pembroke. The project examines the relationship between economic inequality and civilian support for democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean. It begins with an acknowledgments section and table of contents. It then presents an abstract that summarizes the study, which hypothesizes that citizens who believe inequality is high and should be reduced are more likely to lose faith in democracy, but finds the opposite through statistical analysis. The introduction provides background on inequality in the region and issues of populism and economic policy.
This document summarizes a report that examines how 14 democratic countries fund and protect the independence of public media. It finds that countries generally use several approaches: multi-year funding to lessen political pressure; structures that link public media directly to audiences; charters that require public-interest content while restricting government influence; and independent agencies/boards as buffers between media and governments. As a result, public media provide more public affairs coverage and viewpoints than commercial media. However, countries vary in how well their systems are funded and insulated from political interference. The report provides models for the U.S. to consider strengthening its own modest public media system.
The Spread of Information and its Influence On State Security And DevelopmentDigital Society
The document discusses the spread of information and its influence on state security. It notes that information has become an important source of power as states can now influence each other through information rather than just military capabilities. It examines theories on how information impacts international relations and creates a more complex interdependent world. The document then analyzes Uzbekistan's information space, internet development, and risks of negative information influence from other actors manipulating information to damage Uzbekistan's interests. It evaluates measures Uzbekistan has taken to develop its information sphere and deal with such threats.
This document is a dissertation submitted by Sheila Aikman towards a BA/BSc degree at the University of East Anglia in January 2015. It examines whether state institutions in Mexico reinforce violence with violence, using an intersectional analysis. The dissertation will focus on incidents of violence in the states of Guerrero and Chihuahua to analyze if the state has amplified violence through both actions and inactions. It will consider how the war on drugs has militarized communities and prioritized combating cartels over other issues, exacerbating hardships for marginalized groups.
- A survey of over 3,000 US adults found that over half now say they will get vaccinated for COVID-19 or have already received at least one dose, up from 37% in previous research.
- The biggest motivator for getting vaccinated was a desire to return to normal life, while concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy were the top reasons for hesitancy.
- Local news sources like local TV, newspapers, and radio were seen as most reliable compared to national news brands, with over half rating local TV news as reliable versus under 20% as unreliable.
- Hesitancy remained highest among Black respondents and younger women, though resistance declined in these groups compared to previous research.
The document discusses how democracies can yield non-democratic outcomes when preconditions for democracy are missing or manipulated. It analyzes theories of democracy and compares the US and India. Regarding the US, it summarizes research arguing the US has become a "plutonomy" dominated by wealthy elites who use wealth to influence politics through campaign donations and media. Engineered consent and "Astroturf" groups are discussed as tools used to shape public opinion and policy debates, such as labeling the Affordable Care Act as "Obamacare".
1) The document presents research on the effects of exposure to civil conflict in Peru on political beliefs and participation. It analyzes survey data on Peruvians' trust in government, views on democracy and civil rights, and civic participation, linked to data on violence during the Peruvian civil war from 1980-2000.
2) The results show that exposure to violence during sensitive childhood and adolescent stages is associated with more negative views of democracy and lower civic participation, but does not impact other political outcomes.
3) The authors discuss assumptions, threats to identification like migration, and ideas for future research extensions like analyzing effects by type and perpetrator of violence and inter-generational impacts.
Elderfield 7SCORE = 94Social Media and Political Activity.docxjack60216
Elderfield 7
SCORE = 94%
Social Media and Political Activity: Considering the Implications
It is impossible to completely predict all of the different effects that one phenomenon will have on another. This is especially true when one of the phenomena in question is as deep and complex as political activity and the other as new and fluid as social media. Because the phrase “political activity” is vague and could be used to describe any number of different actions, in the context of this essay it will be defined as any action that is intended to concern both a federal or local governmental body and one or more of its citizens. The meaning of “social media” is somewhat standard, but to avoid any confusion it will be defined as any form of media that facilitates real-time communication between two or more people. Many reputable scholars have devoted a great deal of time and other resources to the study of the interaction between social media and political activity. In a recent article entitled “The Political Power of Social Media”, Clay Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, discusses the different effects that social media has had on national and international politics and the varying degrees of success that it has created (1-12). In examining some of the more United States-centric effects of social media on political activity, Michael McGrath, the editor of The National Civic Review, discusses the effects of social media on political participation within minority groups in an article entitled “Technology, Media, and Political Participation” (41-44). Finally, taking a more cynical approach to the interaction between social media and political activity, Evgeny Morozov, a contributing editor to Foreign Policy, takes a closer look at the role of social media in political revolutions and how authoritarian governments are adapting to the rise of social media in an article entitled “Technology’s Role in Revolution: Internet Freedom and Political Oppression” (18-21). While these three articles all look at the interaction between social media and political activity from differing perspectives, they all lead to an overlapping set of conclusions. While the core components of political activity have not been changed by the effects of social media, the scope of its occurrence has. These changes are pressuring non-democratic governments to acknowledge and respond to the opinions and wishes of their citizens more than ever before. As a result, authoritarian regimes are now adjusting their policies and actions with social media in mind.
While social media has influenced many aspects of society, at its core, political activity has remained unchanged. Clay Shirky observes that, “Just as [Martin] Luther adopted the newly practical printing press to protest against the Catholic Church, and the American Revolutionaries synchronized their beliefs using the postal service that Benjamin Franklin had designed, today’s dissident movements will use an ...
Page 284 the journal of social media in samit657720
This document summarizes a research study that analyzed social media comments related to a 2015 incident of alleged police brutality against African American teenagers in McKinney, Texas. The study used critical race theory to examine how YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook users interpreted and discussed video evidence of the incident. It found that social media allows for alternative narratives and interpretations of news events, and serves as a platform for marginalized groups to frame issues in a way that challenges mainstream media. The discussion of police brutality on social media is part of the larger #BlackLivesMatter movement that seeks to draw attention to mistreatment of African Americans by law enforcement.
יום חופש העיתונות שצויין אתמול ברחבי העולם, מוצא את חופש העיתונות בשפל של יותר מעשור, כשברחבי העולם מתגבר איום הטרור, לצד משברים פוליטיים והומניטריים ברחבי הגלובוס. ישראל מוגדרת כמדינה היחידה שבה יש חופש עיתונות במזרח התיכון לפי ארגון Freedom House אך היא דורגה במקום ה-61 בעולם במדד חופש העיתונות של הארגון.
E-politics from the citizens’ perspective. The role of social networking tool...Przegląd Politologiczny
The progress of civilization, supported by the development of new technologies, has led
to a series of social, economic and political changes. The information society, in its expectations and
through access to knowledge, has significantly affected a change in the model of democracy, causing
a kind of return to the original forms of communication in citizen-government relations. This has been
accompanied by a shift of social and civic activism from the real to the virtual world. In literature,
the use of information and communication technologies in the democratic system is named electronic
democracy. One of its forms is e-politics, which is implemented at several levels: institutional, system
and civil. A good example of the last type are the new social movements that in recent years have had
a significant impact on politics.
The basic research problem in this paper concerns e-politics from the citizens’ perspective, through
the activities of the new social movements, especially of a political nature. The main research goal
is therefore to present the role of social networking tools in influencing citizens and their subsequent
activities that have triggered changes in the political system. The methods used in the paper are case
study and comparative analysis.
This document provides an introduction and background to a book about the impact of social media on political parties and power balances. It discusses debates around social media's revolutionary potential in politics and notes most studies have focused on exceptional cases or US politics. The book aims to examine social media's impact on "normal politics" and power relations between parties using the Netherlands as a comparative case study.
Bennett’s hypothesis contradicts the popular image of the media as a watchdog; it constantly looks over the shoulders of the ones in power. However, Robinson’s model uses the indexing theory as a foundation but still opens up for instances when the media may assert influence on a policy decision (lapdog).
High coordination costs are often identified as the reason for the low quality of public goods available to the poor. We report findings from a unique combination of a village-randomized controlled trial and a lab-in-the-field experiment. An in-depth survey of 1,600 women before and after an intervention establishing membership-based organizations in one of the poorest districts in India shows that the presence of these groups increased villagers’ capacity to address water delivery problems, and improved access to, and quality of, water service. Public goods games with over 200 participants in a subset of control and treatment villages show that the presence of village groups increased cooperation among both members and non-members in treated villages. We find little evidence that cooperation is facilitated by more common tastes among group members. These results suggest that, in contrast to traditional community development programs, membership groups can help poor communities build social capital.
This document outlines a study examining the political participation of Latinos in the United States. It introduces the topic and establishes independent variables that may influence Latino participation, including ethnicity, generation, time in the US, education, socioeconomic status, and English proficiency. Hypotheses are presented expecting that socioeconomic status and language barriers will most impact participation. The dependent variable of wearing campaign buttons/signs is identified to measure non-voter participation among Latinos regardless of citizenship status.
American Government - Chapter 10 - Mediacyruskarimian
The document discusses the evolving relationship between media and politics in the United States over time. It describes how colonial newspapers promoted political discussion and independence, while the development of new printing technologies in the 1830s freed the press from financial dependence on political parties. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, sensationalistic "yellow journalism" and investigative "muckraking" journalism gained popularity before objectivity in reporting became emphasized. More recently, trends include declining newspaper readership, less news attention from young people who use social media more, and "narrowcasting" of tailored political messages.
The role of the media in promoting issue based politics.cmd. james gondiJames Gondi
The document discusses the role of the media, or "Fourth Estate", in promoting issue-based politics in Kenya. It notes that the media observes the political process to ensure it is not exploited, and influences political outcomes and candidates. However, the media faces challenges like stringent laws, ownership monopolies, and threats of violence. It also contends with issues in Kenyan politics like ethnicity dividing access to resources, and grand corruption undermining development. The document calls on political journalists to promote accountability, expose corruption, and investigate the misuse of public funds and political mobilization along ethnic lines.
The document analyzes the policy decisions of Al Gore and George W. Bush's campaigns during the 2000 Florida vote recount. It finds that both campaigns pursued manipulation but in different ways. Bush's campaign strictly used manipulation to attack Gore and achieve its goals. Gore's campaign took a multi-framework approach to manipulation, using efficiency and equity considerations to make defensive and expedient decisions, like requesting recounts in only four counties. The document concludes the campaigns showed two distinct strategies of manipulation focused on ultimately winning the presidency.
This document discusses the idea of implementing direct democracy at the federal level in the United States. It provides background on how direct democracy functions through initiatives, referendums, and recalls that are used in many states. The document examines arguments for and against direct democracy, looking at factors like political gridlock, citizen participation, minority representation, money influence, and interest groups. Examples of direct democracy being used successfully in states like California and countries like Switzerland are presented. Overall the document evaluates perspectives on instituting direct democracy at the national level to increase citizen voice and engagement in the political process.
Economic Inequality and Civilian Support for Democracy_Latin America and the ...nicpalmer101
This document is an honors project by Nicholos Palmer submitted in fulfillment of requirements for the Esther G. Maynor Honors College at the University of North Carolina at Pembroke. The project examines the relationship between economic inequality and civilian support for democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean. It begins with an acknowledgments section and table of contents. It then presents an abstract that summarizes the study, which hypothesizes that citizens who believe inequality is high and should be reduced are more likely to lose faith in democracy, but finds the opposite through statistical analysis. The introduction provides background on inequality in the region and issues of populism and economic policy.
This document summarizes a report that examines how 14 democratic countries fund and protect the independence of public media. It finds that countries generally use several approaches: multi-year funding to lessen political pressure; structures that link public media directly to audiences; charters that require public-interest content while restricting government influence; and independent agencies/boards as buffers between media and governments. As a result, public media provide more public affairs coverage and viewpoints than commercial media. However, countries vary in how well their systems are funded and insulated from political interference. The report provides models for the U.S. to consider strengthening its own modest public media system.
The Spread of Information and its Influence On State Security And DevelopmentDigital Society
The document discusses the spread of information and its influence on state security. It notes that information has become an important source of power as states can now influence each other through information rather than just military capabilities. It examines theories on how information impacts international relations and creates a more complex interdependent world. The document then analyzes Uzbekistan's information space, internet development, and risks of negative information influence from other actors manipulating information to damage Uzbekistan's interests. It evaluates measures Uzbekistan has taken to develop its information sphere and deal with such threats.
This document is a dissertation submitted by Sheila Aikman towards a BA/BSc degree at the University of East Anglia in January 2015. It examines whether state institutions in Mexico reinforce violence with violence, using an intersectional analysis. The dissertation will focus on incidents of violence in the states of Guerrero and Chihuahua to analyze if the state has amplified violence through both actions and inactions. It will consider how the war on drugs has militarized communities and prioritized combating cartels over other issues, exacerbating hardships for marginalized groups.
- A survey of over 3,000 US adults found that over half now say they will get vaccinated for COVID-19 or have already received at least one dose, up from 37% in previous research.
- The biggest motivator for getting vaccinated was a desire to return to normal life, while concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy were the top reasons for hesitancy.
- Local news sources like local TV, newspapers, and radio were seen as most reliable compared to national news brands, with over half rating local TV news as reliable versus under 20% as unreliable.
- Hesitancy remained highest among Black respondents and younger women, though resistance declined in these groups compared to previous research.
The document discusses how democracies can yield non-democratic outcomes when preconditions for democracy are missing or manipulated. It analyzes theories of democracy and compares the US and India. Regarding the US, it summarizes research arguing the US has become a "plutonomy" dominated by wealthy elites who use wealth to influence politics through campaign donations and media. Engineered consent and "Astroturf" groups are discussed as tools used to shape public opinion and policy debates, such as labeling the Affordable Care Act as "Obamacare".
1) The document presents research on the effects of exposure to civil conflict in Peru on political beliefs and participation. It analyzes survey data on Peruvians' trust in government, views on democracy and civil rights, and civic participation, linked to data on violence during the Peruvian civil war from 1980-2000.
2) The results show that exposure to violence during sensitive childhood and adolescent stages is associated with more negative views of democracy and lower civic participation, but does not impact other political outcomes.
3) The authors discuss assumptions, threats to identification like migration, and ideas for future research extensions like analyzing effects by type and perpetrator of violence and inter-generational impacts.
Elderfield 7SCORE = 94Social Media and Political Activity.docxjack60216
Elderfield 7
SCORE = 94%
Social Media and Political Activity: Considering the Implications
It is impossible to completely predict all of the different effects that one phenomenon will have on another. This is especially true when one of the phenomena in question is as deep and complex as political activity and the other as new and fluid as social media. Because the phrase “political activity” is vague and could be used to describe any number of different actions, in the context of this essay it will be defined as any action that is intended to concern both a federal or local governmental body and one or more of its citizens. The meaning of “social media” is somewhat standard, but to avoid any confusion it will be defined as any form of media that facilitates real-time communication between two or more people. Many reputable scholars have devoted a great deal of time and other resources to the study of the interaction between social media and political activity. In a recent article entitled “The Political Power of Social Media”, Clay Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, discusses the different effects that social media has had on national and international politics and the varying degrees of success that it has created (1-12). In examining some of the more United States-centric effects of social media on political activity, Michael McGrath, the editor of The National Civic Review, discusses the effects of social media on political participation within minority groups in an article entitled “Technology, Media, and Political Participation” (41-44). Finally, taking a more cynical approach to the interaction between social media and political activity, Evgeny Morozov, a contributing editor to Foreign Policy, takes a closer look at the role of social media in political revolutions and how authoritarian governments are adapting to the rise of social media in an article entitled “Technology’s Role in Revolution: Internet Freedom and Political Oppression” (18-21). While these three articles all look at the interaction between social media and political activity from differing perspectives, they all lead to an overlapping set of conclusions. While the core components of political activity have not been changed by the effects of social media, the scope of its occurrence has. These changes are pressuring non-democratic governments to acknowledge and respond to the opinions and wishes of their citizens more than ever before. As a result, authoritarian regimes are now adjusting their policies and actions with social media in mind.
While social media has influenced many aspects of society, at its core, political activity has remained unchanged. Clay Shirky observes that, “Just as [Martin] Luther adopted the newly practical printing press to protest against the Catholic Church, and the American Revolutionaries synchronized their beliefs using the postal service that Benjamin Franklin had designed, today’s dissident movements will use an ...
Page 284 the journal of social media in samit657720
This document summarizes a research study that analyzed social media comments related to a 2015 incident of alleged police brutality against African American teenagers in McKinney, Texas. The study used critical race theory to examine how YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook users interpreted and discussed video evidence of the incident. It found that social media allows for alternative narratives and interpretations of news events, and serves as a platform for marginalized groups to frame issues in a way that challenges mainstream media. The discussion of police brutality on social media is part of the larger #BlackLivesMatter movement that seeks to draw attention to mistreatment of African Americans by law enforcement.
Manipulating Social Media to Undermine Democracy 2017 Final Alireza Ghahrood
his report was made possible by the generous support of the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (DRL), Google, the German Federal Foreign Office, the Internet Society, Yahoo, and Golden Frog. The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of Freedom House and does not necessarily represent the views of its donors.This booklet is a summary of findings for the 2017 edition of Freedom on the Net. A full volume with 65 country reports assessed in this year’s study can be found on our website at www.freedomonthenet.org.
Manipulating Social Media to Undermine Democracy Online content manipulation contributed to a seventh consecutive year of overall decline in internet freedom, along with a rise in disruptions to mobile internet ser-vice and increases in physical and technical attacks on human rights defenders and independent media.Nearly half of the 65 countries assessed in Freedom on the Net 2017 experienced declines during the coverage period, while just 13 made gains, most of them minor. Less than one-quarter of users reside in countries where the internet is designated Free, meaning there are no major obstacles to access, onerous restrictions on content, or serious violations of user rights in the form of unchecked surveillance or unjust repercussions for legitimate speech.The use of “fake news,” automated “bot” accounts, and other manipulation methods gained particular atten-tion in the United States. While the country’s online environment remained generally free, it was troubled by a proliferation of fabricated news articles, divisive partisan vitriol, and aggressive harassment of many journalists, both during and after the presidential election campaign. Russia’s online efforts to influence the American election have been well documented, but the United States was hardly alone in this respect. Manipulation and disinformation tactics played an important role in elections in at least 17 other countries over the past year, damaging citizens’ ability to choose their leaders based on factual news and authentic debate. Although some governments sought to support their interests and expand their influence abroad—as with Russia’s disinformation campaigns in the United States and Europe—in most cases they used these methods inside their own borders to maintain their hold on power
Analysing Large-Scale News Media Content for Early Warning of Conflict - Proj...UN Global Pulse
A feasibility study conducted by Global Pulse with UNDP explored how data mining of large-scale online news data could complement existing tools for conflict analysis and early warning. Analyzing news media archives from before and after Tunisia's 2011 revolution showed that tracking changes in tone and sentiment over time offered insights into emerging conflicts. Mining digital content was found to have considerable potential for conflict prevention if further explored.
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Kavanaugh et al. Between a Rock and a Cell Phone
Proceedings of the 9th International ISCRAM Conference – Vancouver, Canada, April 2012
L. Rothkrantz, J. Ristvej and Z. Franco, eds.
1
Between a Rock and a Cell Phone:
Communication and Information Technology Use
during the 2011 Egyptian Uprising
Andrea Kavanaugh1 Steven D. Sheetz1
Riham Hassan2 Seungwon Yang1
Hicham G. Elmongui3 Edward A. Fox1
Mohamed Magdy1 Donald J. Shoemaker1
1 Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, +1 (540) 231-1806
2 Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Cairo, Egypt
3 Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
kavan, sheetz, seungwon, fox, mmagdy, [email protected][email protected][email protected]
ABSTRACT
Many observers heralded the use of social media during recent political uprisings in the Middle East even
dubbing Iran’s post election protests a “Twitter Revolution”. We seek to put into perspective the use of social
media in Egypt during the mass political demonstrations in 2011. We draw on innovation diffusion theory to
argue that these media could have had an impact beyond their low adoption rates due to other factors related to
demographics and social networks. We supplement our social media data analysis with survey data we collected
in June 2011 from an opportunity sample of Egyptian youth. We conclude that in addition to the contextual
factors noted above, the individuals within Egypt who used Twitter during the uprising have the characteristics
of opinion leaders. These findings contribute to knowledge regarding the role of opinion leaders and social
media, especially Twitter, during violent political demonstrations.
Keywords
social media, mobile phones, Middle East, social networks, innovation diffusion.
THE ROLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA IN POLITICAL CRISES
Protesters took to the streets with "a rock in one hand, a cell phone in the other," according to Rochdi Horchani
– a relative of Mohamed Bouazizi, the 26-year-old Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire in December
2010 to protest police harassment and corruption (Ryan, 2011). Bouazizi’s death in early January 2011 as a
result of his burns triggered riots leading to the downfall in mid-January of the 23-year reign of Tunisia’s
President Ben Ali. A wave of protests against Middle East authoritarian governments followed in Egypt, Libya,
Bahrain, Algeria, and Syria, and came to be dubbed the ‘Arab Spring’. Starting in July 2010, prior to the
uprising, WikiLeaks began to release confidential State Department cables indicating that the US did not much
admire the authoritarian leaders in many of these countries – a development played out via a set of online
documents that certainly may have contributed to Arabs’ confidence in protesting. In addition, much credit has
been given to the role played by social media used by citizens to share with each other and with intern ...
The social movement and collective action theoryAlexander Decker
The document analyzes the 2011 Egyptian revolution using the social movement and collective action theory. It summarizes the theory's five stages: 1) issues of discontent formed, 2) issues were framed around calls for democracy, 3) mobilization occurred on social media and protests, 4) confrontation emerged as the government tried to suppress protests violently, 5) outcomes included the overthrow of Mubarak's government. The theory effectively explained the progression of events in Egypt. However, it does not account for why some social movements succeed while others fail, which depends on factors like the type of regime.
This document examines the causes of the 2011 Arab uprisings by testing the relationship between economic grievances, social fragmentation, and mass movement in the Arab world. It analyzes how class-based (horizontal) cleavages related to economic factors like corruption and unemployment compare to group-based (vertical) cleavages along ethnic, tribal and religious lines in predicting popular uprisings. The document reviews literature on the impact of both types of social divisions, finding that only perceptions of corruption were significantly linked to the Arab uprisings, while both high and low levels of ethnic fragmentation were also correlated with mass movement. Tribalism was found to negatively impact protests but it is unclear if this is due to regime type.
37 role of social media in political and regime change the college studyMary Smith
It is an educational blog and intended to serve as complete and self-contained work on essays, paragraph, speeches, articles, letters, stories, quotes.
https://www.thecollegestudy.net/
Más información en:
https://www.universidadpopularc3c.es/index.php/actividades/seminarios/event/3519-seminario-sobre-globalizacion-mundial-1-introduccion-y-nociones-generales-sobre-globalizacion
Ponente: Alejandro Molins de la Fuente, Experto en Comercio Internacional
Tema:
Fecha:
Descripción:
Coup and democracy- Daniel MakoiCoup #AntiCoupSouthSudanMakoi Majak
This study examines the occurrence of competitive elections after coups d'etat between 1945 and 2004. It finds that whereas the vast majority of successful coups before 1991 installed durable authoritarian rules, the majority of coups after 1991 were followed by competitive elections. The article argues that after the Cold War ended, international pressure, especially from Western countries, influenced the consequences of coups in other countries. Countries that were more dependent on Western aid were more likely to embrace competitive elections after their coups in the post-Cold War era. This suggests that changes in the international context, particularly the end of the Cold War, help explain the decline in coups and increase in elections following coups since 1991.
This document summarizes research on the connection between respect for civil and political rights and political and economic stability. Several studies are discussed that find violations of rights like freedom of expression and discrimination correlate with increased risks of instability, such as civil war or unrest. Case studies of countries like Benin, Bangladesh, Laos and Equatorial Guinea provide specific examples where limitations on civil rights preceded political instability, which sometimes then led to economic issues as well. The document argues this research challenges justifications for restricting civil liberties in the name of security and stability, as respecting human rights may actually be the best path to achieving those goals.
IntroductionAccording to Robert E. Dento and Gray C. Woodward.docxnormanibarber20063
Introduction
According to Robert E. Dento and Gray C. Woodward (1998), two of the most famous contributor to the political communication studies in America, said that political communication mainly refers the way in which senders to transfer the political messages to the receivers. The methods of sending the message, which will effect a region’s political environment, normally include political speeches, news media coverage, and ordinary citizen’s talk. The concentrations usually focus on the discussions of who has the authority to sanction, to allocation of public resources, who has the authority to make decision, as well as social meaning like what makes someone an American. As a result, it is obviously to see that the nature of political communication is not only the source of a message, but it is the transformation of political content and purpose to citizens. Therefore, the purpose of political communication strategy can be defined as to influence public knowledge, beliefs, and action on political matter. (McNair B, 2003)
However, due to the progress of Information Communication Technologies (ICTs) in the 20th century, the traditional mass media, which includes TV shows, newspapers and magazines, and radio, is losing its place to the latest type of media, such as the Internet and real-time communication tools in the area of political communication. For example, in February, 2011, the Americans had closed the video station, the ‘ Voice of America’, which has been conducted for more than half century. It used to be regarded as a powerful mass media in political communication tool. But, does it mean that the American government has weakened its use of mass media in political communication? The answer is no. When the announcement of shutting down the ‘Voice of America’, Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, has given a freestyle presentation at George Washington University, and it was published on the Internet, synchronously. the event itself indicates that the American government has realized that the powerful capability of newly mass media. (Platform Magazine, 2015) and the government is getting ready to use this tool to reinforce it political status.
Consequently, this essay will discuss how the new mass media affects American political communication strategy in election, as well as the practice of strategies. At the same time, the three discussion points will be analyzed in the following part.
The characteristics of newly mass media in Election
The concept relates to the emergence of ‘newly mass media’ results form the development of ICTs. The ICTs enables some real-time communication tool, such as Facebook, Twitter and Youtube, to become a critical platform for citizens to express their political issues. Consequently, as a government, which is famous by its democratic social media, it was announced by Hillary that the US would spend 2.5 billion in the enhancement of “internet democracy”. Thus, the year of 2011 is regarded as .
War and peace are two powerful forces that have been shaping civilizations. Every nation has gone through various degrees of conflicts. In this paper, the author asks what history lessons can be used to educate the public and policy makers on conflict prevention. If we were to avoid repeating the mistakes and wars of the past, the author believes new innovative approaches are needed for solving old problems of conflicts within a nation and between nations. Alongside current steps to promote social order, the psychology of war and peace must be adequately looked into and utilized in forming the needed policies.
This document analyzes survey data from over 40 developing countries to understand determinants of radicalism, support for violence, and participation in anti-regime actions. It finds that individuals who feel politically and economically marginalized are more likely to harbor extremist views but less likely to join collective political movements. This potentially explains why marginalized groups are difficult to mobilize in nation-wide movements, despite their attitudes. It also finds that arenas for active political participation are more likely dominated by upper-middle income groups committed to preserving the status quo. Suppressing these forms of participation may push these groups towards more radical preferences. The findings suggest the poor may be caught in a cycle of increasing self-exclusion and marginalization.
The document summarizes a study on the impact of social media platforms Twitter and Facebook on the 2015 UK General Election. It utilized a mixed-methods approach including an online survey of 52 participants and interviews. The survey found that most respondents were female, between 16-18 years old, and lived in urban areas of England. Qualitative interviews explored how and why social media may have influenced peoples' votes. The study aimed to understand if social media was a major factor in political campaigns and if any voting patterns emerged in relation to these platforms.
Social Media and PoliticsLearning objectivesLearning objec.docxjensgosney
Social Media and Politics
Learning objectives
Learning objectives include an understanding of the following:
· The role of social media in democracy
· The role of social media in advancing political reforms
· How social media create polarization
Introduction
Social Media are now a central component of democracy. The media are increasingly associated with political organizing, elections campaigns, accountability, and generally a more engaged citizenry. Social media are a dominant platform through which everyday citizens can share, organize, and communicate their ideas. People regularly use the media to acquire information about leaders and public policy related areas like the environment, education, health and so on. Many public offices now have websites that include social media functions in their communication with the public. Collectively, social media provide a public sphere where individuals can interact with likeminded people on political issues and provide criticism and support for leaders. However, while social media platforms make many issues accessible to increasingly large groups, the media have the potential to create polarization. Specifically, many blogs are quite subjective while some forms of media promote hatred and intolerance. Additionally, it is also difficult to examine the extent to which social media really alters public opinion as more research is needed. Lastly, questions remain on how much time users are prepared to devote their time on the social media for political problems.
Social Media and Elections
Popular social networks have transformed the use of the internet as a political tool for democratic transitions. Barack Obama’s historic in 2008 win was attributed to a new media strategy inspired by popular networks such as MySpace and Facebook. The campaign’s website My.BarackObama.com, allows supporters to join local groups, create events, sign up for updates and set up personal fund-raising pages. The campaign was spearheaded by Chris Hughes, a co-founder of Facebook. The social networks helped Obama raise more than two million donations of less than $200 each (Stelter, 2008). This success was based on huge investments on social media. The campaign spent $3 million on online advertising that targeted potential voters and online tools providing details of voting locations (Stelter, 2008).
Similarly, social media was extensively used in Canada’s 2011 elections. The elections were dubbed the “social media elections” or “election 2.0.” Harris (2011) observed that the social media served as “a one-stop shopping for parodies, speech remixes, gotcha moments, unconventional ads, and attacks so fiery, they risk scorching your computer monitor.” Two "vote mob" videos simultaneously held spots in the Top 10 on YouTube. A satirical video juxtaposing a Harper speech with an address by Star Wars' evil Emperor Palpatine drew more than 114,000. The University of Guelph's "vote mob" videos were viewed more than 33,000 .
P2594 Relation Sandro Suzart SUZART GOOGLE INC United States on Demons...Sandro Suzart
relationship between Sandro Suzart SUZART GOOGLE INC and United States on Demonstrations 2013 and Impeachments of 22 governments Relation, Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC, United States on Demonstrations countries IMPEACHMENT GOOGLE INC
P2594 2 Relation between Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC, United Stat...Sandro Santana
Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC and United States on relationship among Demonstrations, 2013. IMPEACHMENTS of 22 governments, Relation, Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE INC, United States, Demonstrations countries IMPEACHMENT, GOOGLE INC, the torture suffered by Sandro Suzart, Genocide in Egypt and Lybia.
The Impact of Social Media (Facebook/YouTube) on the Politically Interest of ...journal ijrtem
Abstract : This work which is entitled “The Impact of Social Media (Facebook/YouTube) on the Political Opinions of Syrians” aimed to report on survey research conducted, which identify the roles that played by the social electronic communication tools as Facebook and YouTube among the Syrian students at the Girne American University (GAU) politically. Moreover, this study aims to answer the following three questions: What impact do Facebook and YouTube have on the Syrian students at the Girne American University (GAU) politically, and what shape does this impact take. Also, dependence of Syrian students on these networks in reading the news. Also, this work has interviewed most of the Syrian students through the survey. This study, demonstrates the appeal that social media can have both positive and negative points in the Syrian students at the University. Keywords: Syria, Facebook, YouTube, Politics, Electronic Communication
Analysing the role_of (2) Relation between Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE ...Sandro Santana
The document analyzes the role of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings from an information warfare perspective using the Information Warfare Lifecycle Model. ICTs like social media and mobile phones were used by protesters to coordinate demonstrations and spread anti-government sentiment domestically and internationally. Governments attempted to restrict ICT access but were ultimately unsuccessful. The analysis characterizes the role of ICTs as psychological operations and command/control warfare, facilitating the dissemination of information to influence local and global audiences and provide some organization for initial protests.
Analysing the role_of (2) Relation between Sandro Suzart, SUZART, GOOGLE ...
Patrick Hipple Honors Thesis
1. Revolution Via Social Media
An Empirical Study of Social Media as a Risk Factor for Social Conflict within Africa
Patrick Hipple
Economics Honors Thesis
College of the Holy Cross
Advisor: Prof. Anderton
Second Reader: Prof. Carter
Fall 2011
Abstract:
This paper investigates the social conflict implications of the internet and mobile phones within African
nations. This cross-country analysis uses a Poisson regression model to study the effects of social media,
measured by internet and mobile phone penetration rates, on the number of social conflicts from 2005-
2010. The dependent variable is the number of social conflict events aggregated per country per year.
Results show that both the internet and mobile phone penetration rates have a positive statistically
significant effect on the amount of social conflict within African countries.
2. Introduction
The causes of conflict and peace have long been an object of study. Policymakers,
academics, and the pubic have constant concern for the human and economic costs of the onset
and continuation of conflicts between and within states. The literature regarding conflict has
largely focused on larger scale conflict which includes interstate and civil wars. In this paper the
focus will be on lower level social conflict. These conflicts include protests, riots, small
rebellions, and strikes. These social conflicts largely go unnoticed by scholars and the
international community until they lead to a larger scale conflict or war.
Between the years 2010-2011 there has been a large uptick in the number of protests in
Africa and the Mideast. In a matter of weeks, the people of Tunisia and Egypt ousted the
autocratic regimes that had ruled in those countries for decades. Unlike past revolutions, no
individual, group, or event was solely credited with this shift in power. Algeria, Lebanon,
Jordon, Mauritania, Sudan, Oman, Yemen, Syria, Djibouti, Bahrain, and Libya have all
experienced similar protests. Yet the turning point that brought people together against their
abusive governments was not seen perceived by news outlets such as CNN and The New York
Times. These outlets have deemed some of these an Arab Spring or a “Facebook Revolution”
(LaMonica). CNN has cited that the presence of social media outlets fueled the fire of revolution.
These protesters have all shared techniques of civil resistance in sustained campaigns involving
strikes, demonstrations, marches and rallies, by using the internet or other social media devices
such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. According to the World Bank approximately 1/3 of the
world’s population is connected via the internet or mobile phones. This statistic is growing
rapidly as the price falls dramatically for social media devices.
3. This paper hypothesizes that the presence of social media devices will cause the number
of social protests and conflicts to rise within African countries, ceteris paribus. This hypothesis
will be explored through various theoretical perspectives in the conflict literature. This will be
followed by an empirical test of the hypothesis on a sample of 45 African countries from the
time period of 2005-2009. In the time period studied, there appears to be statistically significant
support that the level of the internet and mobile phone technologies increased the risk of social
conflict within African countries.
I. LITERATURE REVIEW
Previous literature addresses the question of what risk factors affect conflict. Scholars
have examined an extensive number of risk variables relating to intrastate wars and sub-war
conflicts. In combination with these risk factors, theories have been developed that are relevant
for considering globalization and technology effects on conflict.
Selected Empirical Studies of Intrastate Conflict
Although the specific literature regarding the risk factors for the onset of intrastate
conflict is extensive (e.g. Sambanis 2005), there are few studies that examine effects of internet
and mobile phone technologies. Scholars use a variety of independent variables to assess risk
factors for intrastate conflict, including population, ethnic/religious fractionalization, GDP
growth, political participation, and political corruption. Although some include globalization as a
risk factor for conflict it is never disaggregated to examine pieces of the globalization indexes.
Also, most studies look at a larger aggregated variable of interstate war or civil war onset and not
the lower level disaggregated social conflicts that can lead up to these events.
Collier and Hoeffler (2004) examine two motivating factors that could possibly lead to
the onset of civil war. Their study examines civil war in the time period of 1960-1999. They
4. highlight that rebel leaders could be motivated by greed, grievance, or both. Rebel leaders
motivated by greed are interested in profit maximization by procuring natural resources, taxation,
illegal activities, or other forms of economic activity. Grievance motives result from a
mistreatment of a group, state corruption, or unhappiness towards policy. These two motives are
not mutually inclusive; a population can be motivated by a mixture of both motives. The result of
their study was that higher levels of grievance can cause a higher risk in conflict, but greed
motives are more important than grievance. Although this study is extensive, it does not include
a measure for internet or mobile phone usage which could be related to the grievance and greed
variables.
Fearon and Laitin (2003) investigate what factors cause the onset of civil war. Their
dependent variable was if civil war started in a country within a year period. The time frame was
1945-1999. They concluded that conditions that favor insurgency were state weakness, poverty,
a large population, and political instability. The variables they were testing, ethnic and religious
diversity, did not come up statistically significant. Although they find statistically significant
variables they omit the media variable. In this study we will assess a technology variable because
during the time period examined there have been vast changes in the areas of media which need
to be considered.
Hegre and Sambanis (2006) are examing the factors that bring about the onset of civil
war. The dependent variable defines civil war as an intrastate conflict with 1,000+ deaths in
total; their data is from the Uppsalla Conflict Data Program. This study’s results are that a large
population, low per capita real income and growth rate, recent political instability, inconsistent
democratic institutions, countries with small militaries increase the risk of civil war. The
importance of this study is that robustness checks were done with different data sets to highlight
5. that they are important in most conflict studies. Similar to previous studies there is no social
media variable present which will be the focus of this study.
Another cross-sectional study of risk factors for civil war is Nieman (2011), who uses
similar variables to Fearon and Laitin. This study examines the time period of 1970-1990 and
adds a globalization variable. He reasons that globalization has both positive and negative
properties and as globalization increases there is a tension between these two forces. He believes
that globalization gives states and individuals tremendous benefits, but sudden shocks can
overwhelm a state’s capacity to offset the negative impacts of globalization thus elevating the
risk of conflict. His dependent variable was the onset of civil war. The independent measure for
globalization shock was a non-disaggregated index. This index incorporated measures for the
levels of economic, political, and social globalization, which included measurements for social
media and the internet. The results of the study are that sudden shocks of globalization show
statistical significance as a catalyst for the onset of civil wars. Other variables that were found to
be statistically significant, supporting Fearon and Laitin’s study, were population, real
GDP/capita, and instability.
Selected Empirical Studies Low Level Conflict
The previous set of literature looked at risk factors for civil wars. The following studies
highlight risk factors relating to low level conflict. These include strikes, protests, political riots,
and a short duration interstate conflict.
Machado (2011) is investigating how an individual choses various forms of political
participation. Two choices that are examined are political protest and democratic discourse
through an institution. The study focuses on the different political institutions within 17 Latin
6. America counties from 2000-2007. Her reason for choosing Latin America is that most countries
were democratized in the 1980s but different types of protest and conflict are present in different
types of countries. Machado finds statistical significance that a well-functioning institutional
setting leads political discourse to be facilitated through the political institutions, and when
political institutions are weak individuals with grievances tend to go to the street. Furthermore,
she finds that a lack of respect for political institutions and experiences with corruption also
increase protest participation. Although she points out reasoning that political protests do occur,
she does not look at why or how they mobilize. The internet could be added to further her
models explanatory power.
Hutchison (2011) investigates whether defensive mobilization is elite led or due to an
overall pattern in non-voting political participation. He is examining 16 countries within Africa
from the years 1999-2003. The dependent variable was number of non-voters that still
participated politically. He found statistical significance that territorial threats are positively
associated with non-voting political participation. This paper does include a variable for media
exposure and this index includes the internet. This variable was positive and statistically
significant coefficient. Although this paper does include a media variable it does not
disaggregate the different parts of the index. My study will focus on the two elements of media
exposure of the internet and mobile phones. Also, Hutchison looks at an interstate dispute
whereas this paper looks at low level social conflict within a state.
The focus on media exposure and conflict is continued by Zeitzoff (2011). He is
examining the 2008-2009 Gaza Conflict and using social media to forecast how each actor
reacted to one another. This study is unique because it utilizes official blogs, twitter feeds,
internet news feeds, and other internet media sources as a measure of conflict intensity. The
7. more counts of media news within a time period meant that the conflict was more intense for that
period. Unlike previous studies Zeitzoff looks at shorter aggregated periods of time, 15 minutes,
instead of the usual year. The results of his study were that Israel was reacting more to Hamas,
until after the UN passed a resolution telling Israel to stop its attacks. Zeitzoff’s data shows that
at this point, Hamas actually increased the intensity of the conflict and Israel did not retaliate.
Zeitzoff used social media a shift in Hamas’ cost of conflict. In particular, Zeitzoff adds a
variable for social media, which includes the internet. Social media as a whole is used but he
does not break it down any further. Not directly stated in his paper is the idea that the large
presence of media increases the cost dramatically of an Israeli counterattack because reports
would easily be reported via the web.
Olzak’s (2010) empirical cross-country analysis finds that ethnic and religious diversity
and also globalization bring about a higher severity of ethnic conflict. She differentiates herself
from other studies by using severity (number of deaths) instead of onset or presence. Olzak’s
study has a globalization index variable which includes measurements for the level of trade,
media and information flows, political treaties, and political/economic negotiation. The media
and information flows include measurements for the internet. She finds statistical significance
that globalization increases the amount of non-ethnic and ethnic conflict. My study will focus on
the disaggregated variables, from her globalization index, of the internet and mobile phones on
low level social conflict.
Selected Theoretical Perspectives
Kuran (1989) examines the paradox that revolutions in hindsight seem to be inevitable
but are almost always overlooked in foresight. His definition of revolution is a massive shift in
8. peoples expressed political views. He supports this by noting that the French Revolution,
Russian Revolution, Iranian Revolution, and the fall of the USSR all took world experts by
surprise. Kuran’s hypothesis is that individuals hide their preferences for revolt until conditions
are more favorable. The idea is that there is a tradeoff, when grievances are present, the rewards
of revolution and the punishments the regime will put on the rebels. When individuals see that
the rewards of revolution are higher than the punishment they join the movement, which results
in a quickly moving bandwagon affect. He also hypothesizes that there is a domino effect where
individuals who support a government (or are indifferent) falsely support the rebel group because
the cost of counterrevolution is too high. Kuran calls this the spark and prairie fire affect. He
further argues that the reason we see spark after the revolution is because people unveil their
previously hidden grievances. However this study does not mention by what methods
individual’s use to measure a trade in this tradeoff. In a sense what is missing is the forces spark
this bandwagon affect. The internet could be introduced into his hypothesis as a way for an
individual to gather information on the potential probabilities for their tradeoffs.
Fritsch (2011) theorizes on how technology affects society. He states that technology has
always been a powerful driver of change in global society’s economic, political, military, and
cultural development. Technology has multiplied the destructiveness and global reach of armed
conflict and the newest part of this technology is the cyber world. Also, technology has affected
the social status quo which can upset a political or social balance. Although his piece is not
empirical, he points out that technology changes have caused the world to become more global,
and this globalization has an impact on the potential intensity of conflict.
One of the earliest studies to connect the internet and globalization is Houston (2003).
This study highlights the impact of the internet on globalization. He points out that the internet
9. brings new knowledge at low cost to populations. An important fact is that in 1998 that 1/5 of the
top 50 internet using countries was countries a GDP per capita of less than $2,000. This
highlights that the internet is present in all types of countries. He hypothesizes that with this new
and powerful way of gathering and interpreting information people will question current cultural
representations. This will lead to populations experimenting with their culture norms and in
effect trying to rewrite social operation manuals bringing about a more global society.
Laer and Aelst (2009) supports the finding of Houston (2003) that the low cost of the
internet brings knowledge to vast groups of populations. Taking their study farther they theorize
that the internet is used by activist groups in social and political protests. The protesters are able
to spread their knowledge faster and able to use the internet to mobilize. However, they do
differentiate two different types of protests internet based and internet supported. Although Laer
and Aelst do not look into empirical data they are supporting the fact that theoretically when the
internet is present the potential costs of protest are lowered.
These empirical and theoretical studies have examined the overall picture what risk
factors affect a societies risk for conflict. They have also shown that overall globalization has an
effect on the risk factor for conflict. They do not however look at individual variables contained
in globalization such strictly the internet’s effect on one type of conflict. Also, these empirical
studies do not cover the recent internet boom in less developed countries.
II. METHODOLOGY
The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the impact of two globalization
variables and their relation to social conflict within an African country. This study expands on
the studies of Fearon and Collier to attempt to examine risk factors for conflict, but this study
10. will use a lower scale measure civil strife. While studies when examining globalization indexes
as a risk factor variable (Olzak, Zeitzoff, Hutchison), this paper disaggregates mobile phone
users and internet users in order to explain what pieces of globalization cause low level civil
protest. Therefore, the results of this study help to explain under what circumstances a country
would expect an increase in civil protests to occur.
Drawing from the existing body of literature, papers have found theoretical support
between globalization and an increase in social unrest. This study uses an updated data set which
focuses on low levels of social conflict in order to uncover a significant relationship between the
internet, mobile phones, and this low level of conflict.
Theoretical Model
This paper hypothesis is that the
internet and mobile phones will make a
populous more inclined to engage in a
social conflict. The logic behind this is
that the presence of these variables will
spread the idea of a grievance or greed
across a population and it will give a
group the ability to mobilize more
efficiently. To understand this we can
introduce these variables into an altered
profit maximization model (Figure 1).
Cost’
11. The model is a simple cost versus revenue model where both cost and revenue have a
positive slope, but cost is convex and revenue is concave. The key to the model is social conflict
is a function of economic viability. The costs that are integrated into this model would be the
cost of guns, propaganda, communication devices, wages, and other costs incurred by the
protesting group. If there is not economic viability the protest cannot function. For example
when cost lies about revenue protest is not economical viable as reflected by in figure 1. By
introducing the internet and mobile phones into this model we can observe that within a country
where social conflict is not economically viable a rotation of cost due to these variables can
make social conflict occur. In this model we are assuming communication availability devices
are part of costs of social conflict. Over the last ten years access to social media devices
(computers, internet cafés, cell-phones, laptops, etc.) has increased worldwide, and at the same
time the cost has fallen for these goods. The increase in access and decrease in cost would
rotation the cost curve from its original position (Cost) to (Cost’) in the upper panel of figure 1.
The rotation is also reflected in the net revenue function by examining RC to RC’ in the lower
panel of figure 1. As a result we now observe a region of economically viability for social
conflict. Now we observe that there is now an economically visible region of rebellion from R0-
R1 in the lower panel of figure 1.
Drawing on Collier and Hoeffler, a populous is motivated by greed, grievance, or a
mixture of both. By adding their study to the net revenue model we can see that a populous
purely motivated by greed would have an
indifference curves tangent to the maximum
point of profit (see figure 2). Whereas a
populous motivated by grievance would have
12. vertical indifference curves throughout the area of economic viability favoring R1 (see figure 2).
A mixed motivated populous would have negatively sloped convex indifference curve (see figure
2). Since there is a rotation of the cost function this translates into an upward shift and outward
movement of the RC curve to RC’. Therefore, we would expect the decrease in cost from the
increased presence of mobile phone and internet users to increase protest or rebellion for any
populous with either greed or grievance motives or a combination of both.
Other variables that are integrated into this model that this study uses are population,
relative GDP per capita growth, and political corruption. Fearon and Latin (2003) associate per
capita income as a proxy for relative weakness or strength of a county. They point out that a
higher per capita income should be associated with lower risk of conflict because the state is
stronger. A fall in relative per capita income would then decrease the rebel cost function because
the state is weaker and rebel leader could expect a lower levels of government interference.
Again an area of economic viability would arise favoring all 3 types of rational for protest.
Lastly, political corruption is the use of legislated powers by government officials for illegitimate
private gain. This variable either moves the cost function up causing noneconomic viability, or
does not affect the cost function dependent on the situation. A population’s response to this
would be strictly grievance motivated, thus if an area of economic viability exists we would
expect rebellion to occur.
The internet and mobile phone penetration moves the cost function for rebellion. This
rotation in the cost function can magnify the previous variables by creating an area of economic
variability for rebellion that would not be present if it was strictly one of those variables. Therfor
this study theoretical conclusion is that for all three motives proposed by Collier and Hoeffler the
internet has an indirect or direct effect on creating an area of economic viability for rebellion and
13. thus increasing the likelihood of social conflict occurring within a country with higher levels
internet and mobile phone users.
III. Empirical Method: just show how they are proxied
Defining Conflict (Dependent Variable)
To examine conflict in African countries for 2005-2009 our definition of conflict must be
defined. The conflict data used was from the The Robert S. Strauss Center’s Climate Change and
African Political Stability database (SCAD, 2010). This database identifies 6,100 social conflicts
within African countries from 1990-2009. The sample we will be looking at is from 2007 where
1,340 conflicts fit within our criteria. This dependent variable is different from that used in
previous studies because it measures a large array of very small low level conflicts instead of
larger scale intrastate or interstate conflicts.
The dependent variable is a count of social conflict events defined by the following
criteria: (1) Distinct, continuous, and largely peaceful action directed toward members of a
distinct “other” group or government authorities. (2) Distinct, continuous and violent action
directed toward members of a distinct “other” group or government authorities. The participants
intend to cause physical injury and/or property damage. In this event, clear leadership or
organization(s) can be identified (5) Members of an organization or union engage in a total
abandonment of workplaces and public facilities. (6) Members of an organization or union
engage in the abandonment of workplaces in limited sectors or industries. (7) Distinct violent
event waged primarily by government authorities, or by groups acting in explicit support of
government authority, targeting individual, or “collective individual,” members of an alleged
opposition group or movement. (SCAD). If an event meets one of these criteria it was counted as
14. one conflict for the country during the time period examined. If multiple conflicts occurred
within the year they were aggregated.
Independent Variables:
The data source for the independent variables is the World Bank data set of African
Development Indicators. The variables will include number of mobile phone and internet users,
population, real per capita GDP growth, and a dummy for political corruption. This data set has
yearly economic and social data for every country in Africa from 1940-2010. We are limited to
looking at the years 2005-2009 because of a lack of data regarding the internet and mobile phone
users for years previous. The descriptive statistics can be viewed on Table 1.
Statistical Model:
In order to assess the potential relationship between social media and the risk of social
conflict, I estimate a model using social conflict counts as the dependent variable and
internet/mobile phone variables along with several control variables as independent variables.
This model also uses year to year dummy variables to control for time-variant factors of conflict.
This study uses a Poisson estimation method and will use robust standard errors (but they are not
reported). The estimation method is appropriate because there are multiple events within a
country each year and there cannot be a negative number of conflicts per year. Three different
regressions will be used to estimate the effects that internet and mobile phones have on social
conflict.
The following models will look at social media’s relationship to social conflict. The first
model examines internet alone, the second looks at mobile phones alone. The third regression is
15. a robustness check for the internet variable. In the third model the internet variable is changed to
look at internet penetration rate opposed to strictly the number of users. This variable is simply
internet users per country divided by total population of the country
Model 1: e(β1+β2Internet Users+β3Population+β4GDPgrowth+β5Corruption+β6*2006+β7*2007+β8*2008+β9*2009)
Model 2: e(β1+β2Mobile Users+β3Population+β4GDPgrowth+β5Corruption+β6*2006+β7*2007+β8*2008+β9*2009)
Model 3: e(β1+β2Internet Penetration+β3Population+β4GDPgrowth+β5Corruption+β6*2006+β7*2007+β8*2008+β9*2009)
III. Results
Table 1 investigates the impact of the internet on social conflict within African countries.
The statistically significant year dummy variables and constant coefficient represent an expected
number of conflicts relative to year 2005. Also, all the control variables come in statistically
significant with expected signs. The internet variable is positive and marginally statistically
significant at the 5% level using a one-tailed test. A one-tailed test is appropriate here because
we are hypothesizing that the internet will have a positive effect on the number of conflicts.
Table 2 investigates the impact of mobile phone users on the social conflict within
African countries. The results show that most of the year dummy variables and control variables
come in statistically significant. The mobile phone variable also comes in positive and
statistically significant at the 1% level using a one-tailed test. Its coefficient of .02558 implies
that an increase in mobile phone users by one million would lead to an increase of social conflict
16. of 2.558%. Although this might seem small, Africa leads the world in mobile phone growth rates
since 2008 and is expected to increase exponentially in the future (Africa News.com). From 2005
to 2009 mobile phone subscriptions have increased by 500 million users (across the continent).
This regression points to an increase in social conflict as a result of the growth trend in mobile
phone users.
Table 3 investigates a different method of looking at the internet and its effect on social
conflict. It changes the variable to look at the penetration of the internet instead of users. In this
model the results of the year dummies and control variables hold similar to the previous models.
The internet penetration variable is positive and highly statistically significant. The coefficient
estimate .03617 implies that an increase of internet penetration by one percentage point would
increase the amount of social conflict by 3.617%.
IIII. Conclusion
The results of my theoretical and empirical inquiry lend clear support for the relationship
of social media devices and social conflict. The internet variable in the first model was
marginally statistically significant for a one-tailed test, while the media variables in the second
and third models were highly statistically significant. Hence, my thesis is supportive of the view
that social media does indeed affect social conflict within African countries.
In this study I tested only African countries. One explanation for the results is that the
relatively recent introduction of these devices has given Africans a more efficient means of
mobilization for social conflict. Another explanation for the results is that the introduction of
social media devices gives the African citizenry a point of reference to other standards of living
17. around the world. This point of reference could make African’s feel relatively worse off to the
rest of the world. These differences could motivate individuals for both greed and grievance
reasons to participate in social conflict.
The increasing number of Africans who use social media devices suggests that the
number of social conflicts will tend to increase, ceteris paribus. This also suggests that whether
Africans are motivated by greed or grievance, the presence of social media devices has resulted
in an increase of social conflict.
18. Table 1 GDP per capita (current US$) Population, total Internet users Control of Corruption (estimate) GDP growth (annual %) Mobile User
Mean 1694.362076 21081640.01 1462581 -0.597742132 4.7029232 6291251
Standard Error 159.6206725 1849869.003 278479.6362 0.036699939 0.280208082 766574.284
Median 609.9908657 11956408 232000 -0.652940961 4.918480831 1851020
Standard Deviation 2367.557179 27437991.4 4102261.204 0.544348071 4.156157511 11318333.6
Sample Variance 5605326.998 7.5284E+14 1.68285E+13 0.296314823 17.27364525 1.28105E+1
Minimum 107.8705557 1124410 11000 -1.535497028 -17.25418063 40438
Maximum 14802.19617 154728892 43982200 1.074671963 20.61324022 73099312
Count 220 220 220 220 220 218
19. Table 2
Variable Coefficient
z-
Statistic Prob.
C 1.683058 21.68856 0
Internet
users
(millions) 0.007475 1.632395 0.1026
Population
(millions) 0.018793 22.24343 0
GDP per
capita -0.08039 -11.8674 0
Corruption -0.09683 -1.67224 0.0945
2006DUMMY 0.031692 0.38736 0.6985
2007DUMMY -0.27126 -3.12641 0.0018
2008DUMMY -0.329 -3.7529 0.0002
2009DUMMY -0.53475 -5.55489 0
Table 3
Variable Coefficient
z-
Statistic Prob.
C 1.665184 8.546877 0
Mobile Users
(millions) 0.02558 3.278116 0.001
Population
(millions) 0.011062 4.454564 0
GDP per
capita -0.0749 -4.84938 0
Corruption 0.321273 -2.27948 0.0226
2006DUMMY -0.04961 -0.24506 0.8064
2007DUMMY -0.40497 -2.01924 0.0435
2008DUMMY -0.58592 -2.50795 0.0121
2009DUMMY -0.88518 -3.52604 0.0004
20. Table 4
Variable Coefficient
z-
Statistic Prob
C 1.478209 6.409344 0
Internet
Penetration 0.036172 3.212171 0.0013
Population
(millions) 0.017181 12.0063 0
GDP per
capita -0.07131 -5.23058 0
Corruption 0.238781 -1.29489 0.1954
2006DUMMY -0.00364 -0.01982 0.9842
2007DUMMY -0.32232 -1.71616 0.0861
2008DUMMY -0.4588 -2.1239 0.0337
2009DUMMY -0.74961 -2.97008 0.003
22. S.E. of regression 6.706696 Akaike info criterion 7.097875
Sum squared resid 9400.773 Schwarz criterion 7.237602
Log likelihood -764.6684 Hannan-Quinn criter. 7.154313
Restr. log likelihood -1319.516 LR statistic 1109.696
Avg. log likelihood -3.507653 Prob(LR statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: CONFLICTS_IN_YEAR
Method: ML/QML - Poisson Count (Quadratic hill climbing)
Date: 11/11/11 Time: 03:19
Sample: 1 220
Included observations: 220
Convergence achieved after 5 iterations
QML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance
Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
CONTROL_OF_CORRUPTION__E 0.238781 0.184402 -1.294893 0.1954
POPMILL 0.017181 0.001431 12.00630 0.0000
_2006_DUMMY -0.003637 0.183502 -0.019819 0.9842
_2007_DUMMY -0.322319 0.187814 -1.716163 0.0861
_2008_DUMMY -0.458799 0.216018 -2.123895 0.0337
_2009_DUMMY -0.749607 0.252386 -2.970082 0.0030
GDP_GROWTH__ANNUAL___ -0.071312 0.013634 -5.230581 0.0000
INTPENPER 0.036172 0.011261 3.212171 0.0013
C 1.478209 0.230633 6.409344 0.0000
R-squared 0.553486 Mean dependent var 6.147465
Adjusted R-squared 0.536312 S.D. dependent var 9.343071
S.E. of regression 6.362129 Akaike info criterion 7.162483
Sum squared resid 8419.151 Schwarz criterion 7.302663
Log likelihood -768.1294 Hannan-Quinn criter. 7.219110
Restr. log likelihood -1313.856 LR statistic 1091.453
Avg. log likelihood -3.539767 Prob(LR statistic) 0.000000
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