Summary: US consumer price inflation surprised on the upside once again as rapid increases in housing costs, medical care, food and airline fares offset signs of moderation elsewhere. The Fed has admitted it is prepared to inflict economic pain to get a grip on inflation and today's report will ensure at least another 75bp rate hike in November and 50bp in December Source - https://think.ing.com/articles/40-year-high-for-us-core-inflation-heaps-pressure-on-the-fed/

1. COST OF LIVING –
UNITED STATES –
SEPTEMBER 2022
Paul Young CPA CGA
October 14, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• CPI Index
• BMO – Consumer Price Index – United States
• Housing Price Index
• Gasoline Prices
• Average housing Price
• Producer Price Index
• Freight Index
• Blog – Cargo
• Blog – Supply Chain Disruption
• Blog – Stimulus and Inflation

4. THE USA – CPI INDEX
CPI - United States -
September 2022.pdf

5. THE USA – CPI INDEX
CPI - United States -
September 2022.pdf

6. THE USA – TARGET Global Forecast -
May 2022.pdf
• Inflation to hit a target of 1.9% to 2.2% range will require a drastic shift in policies. The USA like
many countries has issues with innovation, skill gaps, productivity, government fiscal gap, and
household debt.
• Inflation new target likely needs to be 3.5% to 4.1% due to shift of both the public and private
sector to ESG reporting and the green economy.
Inflation - USA -
August 2022.pdf

7. BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Source –
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/ae97550
d-8a18-46fc-bb31-ca013cee5f45/
BMO - Inflation - CPI
- Canada - July 2022.pdf
Canadian CPI (Aug.)
— Another Step Down a Long Road.pdf
U.S. CPI Stubbornly
Sticky.pdf

8. HOUSING PRICE INDEX
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

9. GASOLINE PRICES
Source - https://gasprices.aaa.com/

10. AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

11. FREIGHT COSTS
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU484121484121

12. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
PPI - USA -
September 2022.pdf

13. CARGO
Blog - Retail Cargo Expected to Set Record in August
“Strong consumer demand has outpaced supply chain operations since late last year and could remain a challenge as the
holidays approach," Gold added. "The continuing lack of labor, equipment and capacity has highlighted systemic issues and the
need to create a truly 21st century supply chain to ensure resiliency against the next major disruption. Passage of infrastructure
legislation currently pending in Congress is a key step in that direction. We need continued focus by the administration to help
address these issues as well.”
Shipping and congestion continue to be a concern. “The strain of the continuing economic expansion is putting considerable
pressure on the logistics supply chain,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. “We’re seeing a lack of
shipping capacity combined with port congestion as vessels line up to discharge goods from both Asia and Europe. Delays are
stretching to landside as port terminals struggle with space shortages, and labor challenges are affecting ports, railroads and
trucking companies alike. This part of the recovery is not a pretty sight.”
https://www.mhlnews.com/global-supply-chain/article/21171732/retail-cargo-expected-to-set-record-in-
august?utm_source=IY+IW+QM+News&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS210809063&o_eid=7930I4506489J2B&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5
D=omeda%7C7930I4506489J2B&oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B
This ties nicely into my work on United States retail sales - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/retail-sales-usa-june-2021
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

14. SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_s
ource=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end
consumer. https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

15. STIMULUS AND INFLATION
COVID inflation is everywhere, but some have more of it than others. Among advanced economies, the U.S. is starting to
look like the outlier.
That’s probably because it did more fiscal stimulus in the pandemic, economists say. The consensus is that high inflation
won’t last long. But even if that’s right, the current elevated level has the potential to cause problems of its own -- for
President Joe Biden’s most ambitious economic plans at home, and for other countries too.
August data due Tuesday is set to show annual growth in U.S. consumer prices stayed above 5 per cent in August for a
third straight month, according to Bloomberg surveys. The median forecast was 5.3 per cent, down from 5.4 per cent the
previous month. Most other developed countries have seen a spike too -- just not nearly as big.
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-is-starting-to-look-like-a-stimulus-led-outlier-1.1651314
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-public-sector-united-states-250175562

16. WAGES
Blog - Proportion of businesses raising pay hits 48-year high: NFIB
The proportion of small businesses that raised pay in October hit a 48-year high, with a net 44% increasing compensation
and a net 32% planning to do so in the next three months, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said
Tuesday.
Optimism among owners toward the business outlook during the next six months slumped to the lowest level since
November 2012, NFIB said, citing a survey of 1,431 small businesses. “Owners have grown pessimistic about future
economic conditions,” the federation said, noting that 49% said they could not fill job openings and all but 10% reported
disruption from supply chain bottlenecks.
“One of the biggest problems for small businesses is the lack of workers for unfilled positions and inventory shortages,
which will continue to be a problem during the holiday season,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said.
https://www.cfodive.com/news/businesses-raising-pay-hits-48-year-high-
nfib/609756/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202021-11-
10%20CFO%20Dive%20%5Bissue:37915%5D&utm_term=CFO%20Dive
Blog – Employment – United States – October 2021 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/employment-and-labour-
market-the-united-states-october-2021

17. GREEN INFLATION
Blog - Decarbonization And 'Greenflation'
 Accelerating the transition toward low or net-zero carbon emissions is necessary to keep global warming at
theoretically safe levels.
 That will likely bring price shocks associated with rising metal prices, energy costs, and carbon taxes – what has
been called “greenflation”.
 Greening the economy will also require public spending and redistributive policies.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474720-decarbonization-and-greenflation?mail_subject=decarbonization-and-
greenflation&utm_campaign=nl-macro-view&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
The world including the United States are seeing highest inflation since the 1980s (Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/cost-of-living-the-united-states-inflation-november-2021) and environment
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-mitigate-the-threats-of-climate-change-250803941
Any significant change in tax and environmental policies will lead to changes in input costs for many businesses.
There are better ways to fixed issues with environment through more balance of policies that will not drive up the
inflation rates across the globe!
Additional link - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-mitigate-the-threats-of-climate-change-250803941

18. SUMMARY
• High inflation continues to plague Americans
• Food security and food costs are concern to all levels of government
• Interest rates hikes are starting to impact household budgets
Blog – Cost of Living – United States – September 2022 – (Inflation)
CPI - United States -
September 2022.pdf
U.S. CPI Stubbornly
Sticky.pdf
PPI - USA -
September 2022.pdf
Summary:
US consumer price inflation surprised on the upside once again as rapid increases in housing costs,
medical care, food and airline fares offset signs of moderation elsewhere. The Fed has admitted it is
prepared to inflict economic pain to get a grip on inflation and today's report will ensure at least another
75bp rate hike in November and 50bp in December
Source - https://think.ing.com/articles/40-year-high-for-us-core-inflation-heaps-pressure-on-the-fed/
US Imports Headed
To Lowest Level Since Early 2021.pdf
September U.S.
Container Import Volume Drops, but Delays at East and Gulf Coast Ports Remain High Descartes.pdf
currentwhl.pdf Retailers' inventory
stockpiles are at record highs, which could be bad news for the economy - The Washington Post.pdf
US Inflation at 8.2_,
Dollar and S&P 500 on Diverging Paths on Hot CPI.pdf
Biden Signals New
Effort to Lower Gasoline Prices Next Week.pdf
Housing Finance
Affordable and market-rate rental housing finance, development, and operations tools. Housing Finance Magazine.pdf
Average Price
Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average (APU000072610) FRED St. Louis Fed.pdf
Food Banks Serving
Millions More Now Than During Pandemic — and Falling Behind.pdf
US natural gas
inventory builds slightly above estimates Seeking Alpha.pdf
Saudi Arabia and U.S.
Trade Accusations Over Oil Cuts - The New York Times.pdf
1. USA inflation - https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-inflation-at-8-2-dollar-and-s-p-500-on-
diverging-paths-on-hot-cpi-20221013.html
2. Gasoline - https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-10-13/biden-signals-new-
effort-to-lower-gasoline-prices-next-week
3. Housing costs - https://www.housingfinance.com/
4. Electricity - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610
5. Food banks - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-banks-serving-millions-more-
113018025.html
6. Natural gas - https://seekingalpha.com/news/3891124-us-natural-gas-inventory
7. Oil https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/world/middleeast/us-saudi-oil-production.html
8. Imports - https://www.marinelink.com/news/us-imports-headed-lowest-level-early-500047
9. Shipping - https://www.descartes.com/resources/knowledge-center/global-shipping-crisis-
september-us-container-import-volume-drops-significantly
10. Businesses https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/10/discounts-inventory-
excess-retailers-economy/