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Disruptive Innovation &
3D Printing
Part II
Agenda
1. What is a disruptive innovation?
2. 3D Printing Disruption
3. Traditional Manufacturing vs. 3D Printing
4. Consumer manufacturers?
5. Implications
6. Specific disruptions
7. Downsides
| 2
What is a Disruptor?
Disruptors are innovators…
…but not all innovators are
disruptors
According to Clayton
Christensen (HBS):
•“Disruption displaces an
existing market, business
model, industry, or
technology and produces
something new and more efficient
and worthwhile. It is at once
destructive and creative.”
– Internet, smartphones, UBER | 3
3DP Disruption- Why Now?
• Advances include improvement
in:
– the performance of additive
manufacturing machinery,
• Speed, quality
– an expanding range of possible materials,
• Increased range of materials =
more sophisticated end products.
• Incorporating sensors,
microprocessors, electrical
circuits
– and falling prices for both printers
and materials.
• The average industrial printer now
sells for about $75,000, and some
machines cost more than $1 million.
• These costs are widely expected to
decline rapidly in coming years as
production volumes grow.
| 4
Direction of 3DP Technology
| 5
Gartner predicts that 3D
printers with the
capabilities and
performance that is
required by organizations
will be available for less
than $1,000 by 2016.
Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers. (2014). 3D printing and the new shape of industrial
manufacturing.
How are SMEs and large companies adopting 3DP?
| 6
Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers. (2014). 3D printing and the new shape of industrial
manufacturing.
Traditional Manufacturing vs. 3D Printing
• For large production runs, traditional
manufacturing processes cost less per unit than 3DP.
• High up-front tooling costs make traditional
manufacturing more expensive for small
production runs.
• Time to produce a 3-D printed product is much
shorter than the time to make tooling, though actual production time
for each unit is longer than in traditional manufacturing.
| 7
Goodbye to Economies of Scale?
| 8
As economies of scale come into play, traditional
manufacturing can be more beneficial for
producing larger quantities of products.
3DP can provide an efficient alternative for low-to-
medium-sized production runs.
3DP marginal costs do not change with volume
Expected reductions in material costs +
improvements in 3DP tech will increase the
production quantities at which 3DP might
compete with traditional manufacturing methods.
Bottom Line (for now…)
•Although traditional manufacturing will likely still hold place in the
competitive landscape in the years to come,
the next 10 to 20 years will see a rapid
increase in the innovations made possible by 3D
printing
•Companies based on economies of scale will
continue to support commodity and high volume
production.
•3DP is a viable, competitive option when:
– end-user customization is highly desirable,
– where production is very small volume,
– where the end product requires features that
are not easily manufactured by traditional means| 9
Consumer manufacturers?
• Unit sales of consumer 3D
printers remain small, with
about 23,000 printers sold in
2011, but these sales are
growing rapidly, with more
than 300 % in average annual
growth between 2007 and
2011.
• The ability to easily design
and self-manufacture
products could create
significant consumer surplus
and even influence consumer
culture
• Right now, it is unlikely that | 10
Implications
• The 3D production
ecosystem will have
major effects in each of
the three major stages
of the design-build-deliver model.
– Design and production will
be tightly coupled through
experimentation.
• It will change the nature
of design and production:
– GE printing a fuel nozzle in
1 piece as opposed to
assembling 20 different
parts (annual cost savings of up to
75%)
– Boeing printing cool air | 11
Implications
•Proximity between supplier, manufacturer, and
customer will matter, and localized
production will be not only more feasible but more desirable.
•Goods will be infinitely more customized, because altering
 them won't require retooling, only 
tweaking the instructions in the software. 
•Companies will benefit from savings in materials,
labour and transportation costs
| 12
Supply Chain Disruption
| 13
Reducing the supply chain to one
link by eliminating the connections
between development,
prototyping, production, delivery
and warehousing of products.
Disrupted Industrial Workers
Will the manufacturing
industry lose jobs to this
labour-saving technology?
•According to PwC, it is too early to
discern how 3DP will impact this
industry
– It may cut into unskilled factory
floor jobs, but will create opportunities
for workers with technical know-
how
• Opportunities for re-shoring and retraining
workers new programs
•45% of manufactures attributed
| 14
Some industries are poised to be positively impacted by this disruption:
| 15
Especially manufacturers of:
•Low volume and/or new designs not
economically attractive through
subtractive methods
– Aerospace
•More customized products
– Medical devices, helmets, footwear
•Complex, older generation products with
many parts and obsolete parts that are
still in demand
– heavy manufacturing, energy, agriculture
Some industries are poised to be negatively impacted by this disruption:
Especially…
•Transportation and logistics
industries
– More goods being produced locally,
freight volumes may be impacted
– Warehousing
•Patent reliant industries with
weak IP protection
| 16
The Downside of 3DP Disruptions
| 17
• Regulatory and policy issues,
most notably intellectual
property rights
• 3D scanners and easily shared
CAD files make IP infringements
possible and very easy
– Similar to sharing music online
• Gartner forecasts $100bn annual
global losses by 2018 due to 3DP
IP infringements
Important: Policy makers face the challenge of evaluating
and addressing these risks without stifling innovation or
Industry disruptors talsom recordings

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Industry disruptors talsom recordings

  • 1. Disruptive Innovation & 3D Printing Part II
  • 2. Agenda 1. What is a disruptive innovation? 2. 3D Printing Disruption 3. Traditional Manufacturing vs. 3D Printing 4. Consumer manufacturers? 5. Implications 6. Specific disruptions 7. Downsides | 2
  • 3. What is a Disruptor? Disruptors are innovators… …but not all innovators are disruptors According to Clayton Christensen (HBS): •“Disruption displaces an existing market, business model, industry, or technology and produces something new and more efficient and worthwhile. It is at once destructive and creative.” – Internet, smartphones, UBER | 3
  • 4. 3DP Disruption- Why Now? • Advances include improvement in: – the performance of additive manufacturing machinery, • Speed, quality – an expanding range of possible materials, • Increased range of materials = more sophisticated end products. • Incorporating sensors, microprocessors, electrical circuits – and falling prices for both printers and materials. • The average industrial printer now sells for about $75,000, and some machines cost more than $1 million. • These costs are widely expected to decline rapidly in coming years as production volumes grow. | 4
  • 5. Direction of 3DP Technology | 5 Gartner predicts that 3D printers with the capabilities and performance that is required by organizations will be available for less than $1,000 by 2016. Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers. (2014). 3D printing and the new shape of industrial manufacturing.
  • 6. How are SMEs and large companies adopting 3DP? | 6 Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers. (2014). 3D printing and the new shape of industrial manufacturing.
  • 7. Traditional Manufacturing vs. 3D Printing • For large production runs, traditional manufacturing processes cost less per unit than 3DP. • High up-front tooling costs make traditional manufacturing more expensive for small production runs. • Time to produce a 3-D printed product is much shorter than the time to make tooling, though actual production time for each unit is longer than in traditional manufacturing. | 7
  • 8. Goodbye to Economies of Scale? | 8 As economies of scale come into play, traditional manufacturing can be more beneficial for producing larger quantities of products. 3DP can provide an efficient alternative for low-to- medium-sized production runs. 3DP marginal costs do not change with volume Expected reductions in material costs + improvements in 3DP tech will increase the production quantities at which 3DP might compete with traditional manufacturing methods.
  • 9. Bottom Line (for now…) •Although traditional manufacturing will likely still hold place in the competitive landscape in the years to come, the next 10 to 20 years will see a rapid increase in the innovations made possible by 3D printing •Companies based on economies of scale will continue to support commodity and high volume production. •3DP is a viable, competitive option when: – end-user customization is highly desirable, – where production is very small volume, – where the end product requires features that are not easily manufactured by traditional means| 9
  • 10. Consumer manufacturers? • Unit sales of consumer 3D printers remain small, with about 23,000 printers sold in 2011, but these sales are growing rapidly, with more than 300 % in average annual growth between 2007 and 2011. • The ability to easily design and self-manufacture products could create significant consumer surplus and even influence consumer culture • Right now, it is unlikely that | 10
  • 11. Implications • The 3D production ecosystem will have major effects in each of the three major stages of the design-build-deliver model. – Design and production will be tightly coupled through experimentation. • It will change the nature of design and production: – GE printing a fuel nozzle in 1 piece as opposed to assembling 20 different parts (annual cost savings of up to 75%) – Boeing printing cool air | 11
  • 12. Implications •Proximity between supplier, manufacturer, and customer will matter, and localized production will be not only more feasible but more desirable. •Goods will be infinitely more customized, because altering  them won't require retooling, only  tweaking the instructions in the software.  •Companies will benefit from savings in materials, labour and transportation costs | 12
  • 13. Supply Chain Disruption | 13 Reducing the supply chain to one link by eliminating the connections between development, prototyping, production, delivery and warehousing of products.
  • 14. Disrupted Industrial Workers Will the manufacturing industry lose jobs to this labour-saving technology? •According to PwC, it is too early to discern how 3DP will impact this industry – It may cut into unskilled factory floor jobs, but will create opportunities for workers with technical know- how • Opportunities for re-shoring and retraining workers new programs •45% of manufactures attributed | 14
  • 15. Some industries are poised to be positively impacted by this disruption: | 15 Especially manufacturers of: •Low volume and/or new designs not economically attractive through subtractive methods – Aerospace •More customized products – Medical devices, helmets, footwear •Complex, older generation products with many parts and obsolete parts that are still in demand – heavy manufacturing, energy, agriculture
  • 16. Some industries are poised to be negatively impacted by this disruption: Especially… •Transportation and logistics industries – More goods being produced locally, freight volumes may be impacted – Warehousing •Patent reliant industries with weak IP protection | 16
  • 17. The Downside of 3DP Disruptions | 17 • Regulatory and policy issues, most notably intellectual property rights • 3D scanners and easily shared CAD files make IP infringements possible and very easy – Similar to sharing music online • Gartner forecasts $100bn annual global losses by 2018 due to 3DP IP infringements Important: Policy makers face the challenge of evaluating and addressing these risks without stifling innovation or

Editor's Notes

  1. Disruption transforms the way we live and work, enables new business models, and provides an opening for new players to upset the established order. http://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinehoward/2013/03/27/you-say-innovator-i-say-disruptor-whats-the-difference/
  2. Patent for fused deposition modeling (FDM) expired in 2009- Fused deposition modeling (FDM) FDM is mainly used for single- and multipart prototyping and low-volume manufacturing of parts, including structural components. Lower barriers to entry
  3. The key for market growth is the continuing development of printers in the middle price range to achieve advances in performance, in multi-material capability, and in printing complete systems. These continuing developments will open the door to a disruptive expansion in the market.
  4. This figure Illustrates a comparison of the costs of producing goods through traditional manufacturing methods vs. 3D printing. The main advantage of 3D printing is that a low number of goods can be produced at an inexpensive cost, as compared to traditional manufacturing, which typically requires higher volumes to lower costs. However, as those economies of scale come into play, traditional manufacturing can be more beneficial for producing larger quantities of products.” {Deloitte, 2014 #27} http://dupress.com/articles/dr14-3d-opportunity/
  5. Leaders in these categories should identify how to add value for consumers in ways that home-printed products cannot. Manufacturers of consumer products that could become 3D-printable should consider new ways to customize products to match some of the advantages of home printing.
  6. Direct product manufacturing using printing can reduce the number of steps required for parts production, transportation, assembly, and distribution, and it can reduce the amount of material wasted in comparison with subtractive methods. The majority of the companies, however, are still experimenting with the technology to determine how they can apply it to their production processes.
  7. UPS- 3d printing services for start ups, small business and retail customers Staples- 3d printing centres for consumers
  8. Expertise in the design side