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www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
INDUSTRIAL REPORT
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
CTAR-CID
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL
MARKET FORECAST
Derek J. Mathis, Director of Industrial Development, WestRock
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
MARKET DRIVERS
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
NATIONAL/REGIONAL TRENDS
National:
ā€¢ 21 quarters of positive net absorption
ā€¢ 6.7% vacancy
ā€¢ Rental rate growth is up 3.5% YOY.
Tighter markets in the 5% range
ā€¢ Demand outpacing new product delivery
in most major markets
ā€¢ Cap rates compressed
ā€¢ Cargo shift
ā€¢ Projected occupancy gains of 380mm SF
in warehouse/distribution space from
2014-2017
Regional:
ā€¢ Mirrors national trends relative to
absorption, rent growth and vacancy
rates
ā€¢ Significant speculative and BTSFL
development underway in larger regional
metros such as ATL, CLT, GSP and SAV
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
LOCAL MARKET SNAPSHOT
Source: Colliers
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
LOCAL TRENDS
TYPE OF ACTIVITY?
ā€¢ FDI driving SC economy
ā€¢ Balanced mix of manufacturing and
distribution
WHERE?
ā€¢ Prospects prefer ā€œproject readyā€ locations
ā€¢ Infill traditionally preferred location but that
is changing
ā€¢ Jedburg sub-market activity has increased
significantly
WHY?
ā€¢ Favorable business climate
ā€¢ Right to Work
ā€¢ Infrastructure
ā€¢ Clustering
ā€¢ Reshoring trend
ā€¢ Itā€™s Charlestonā€¦
Relative to prior period
Market Indicators+
Vacancy
Net absorption
Construction
Rental Rate
+ +
Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction
*Projected
Q2 2015 Q3 2015*
+Source: Colliers International
WRK ā€“ Active projects by type
54% Manufacturing
45% Distribution
1% Other
LOCAL TRENDS
ā€¢ Mix of leasing and sales
ā€¢ Notable transactions
ā€¢ Rent Growth
ā€¢ Class A rents pushing north
of $5/sf (light mfg related)
ā€¢ Class A distribution space
now in the upper $4/sf
range
ā€¢ Speculative Development
ā€¢ Childress Klein
ā€¢ Patillo
ā€¢ WestRock/SunCap
ā€¢ Atlas Commerce
ā€¢ More to come???
ā€¢ Strong demand for particular
product types
ā€¢ Light manufacturing
ā€¢ 20,000 ā€“ 50,000 SF
conditioned space
Source: JLL
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Case Study:
GERBER CHILDRENSWEAR
Market Impact?
ā€¢ $33mm in investment
ā€¢ 100-125 jobs
ā€¢ Further reinforces/validates the Jedburg market
as viable location for large distribution projects
Why Berkeley County?
ā€¢ Logistical advantages (proximity to Port and growth markets)
ā€¢ Favorable business climate
ā€¢ Available economic incentives
ā€¢ Operational cost efficiencies to be achieved
Why Rockefeller ā€“ MWV Foreign Trade Zone Park?
ā€¢ Speed to market/site readiness
ā€¢ Confidence in Development teamā€™s ability to deliver
ā€¢ Costs
ā€¢ Connectivity to future Exit 197 along with Nexton
amenities and housing
ā€¢ Class A environment and neighboring tenants help to
ensure long term valuation of asset
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
STRENGTHS
Quality of life
Breadth of industry
Strong Port
Pro-business leadership
OPPORTUNITIES
Momentum
Ability to attract and retain talent
Public/Private collaboration
WEAKNESSES
Lack of product
Perception that CHS is too expensive
THREATS
Infrastructure
Workforce availability
SWOT
STRENGTHS
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
WHAT DO COMPANIES WANT?
-Site readiness
-Attractive business environment (taxes, incentives,
permitting)
-Labor Pool (cost, availability, education, skill level,
training)
-Infrastructure/global access (transportation
infrastructure, energy costs, intermodal
capabilities, certified sites)
-Quality of life
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
THREATS
ā€¢ Workforce
ā€¢ Perception among site consultants
ā€¢ Perfect our value proposition
backed by facts
ā€¢ Quantify via labor study
ā€¢ Infrastructure
ā€¢ Needed: $1.4B per year until 2040
ā€¢ Estimated 1/3 of SC primary and
interstate roads are in poor -
mediocre condition
ā€¢ Current gas "user
fee": $0.16/gal
User fee has not increased since
1987
ā€¢ 4th lowest in nation
ā€¢ User fee does not increase with
price of fuel. Revenues grow via
consumption
ā€¢ 50% of SC roads not eligible for
Federal funding
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
LOOKING AHEADā€¦
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
ā€¢ Recession on horizon? Indicators say yes
ā€¢ Feds will raise rates in 2015 ā€“ or will they?
ā€¢ Rising dollar makes exports less competitive
ā€¢ Industrial sector continues steady improvement
ā€¢ Continued ā€œreshoringā€ trend ā€“ FDI
ā€¢ We will see impact from growth of E-Commerce/Omni-Channel ā€œShip-from-Storeā€ trend
ā€¢ Locally, automotive will be dominant market driver. Temper expectations on suppliers
ā€¢ Tech sector growth due to clustering and quality of life for entrepreneurs
ā€¢ More Jobs + More People = Increased interest from ā€œoutsideā€ investors/developers seeking
yield (increased appetite for risk)
ā€¢ Panama Canal expansion and Port investments bode well for our region
ā€¢ Inland port continues to exceed expectations
ā€¢ Increased development activity in the I-26 Jedburg/Ridgeville sub-markets
ā€¢ Additional spec product to come online in 2016
ā€¢ Congestion issues could cause a mini-migration from certain sub-markets
ā€¢ Continued rent growth
ā€¢ Tri-County region becomes SCā€™s dominant market in terms of deal flow
PREDICTIONS
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
CTAR-CID
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL
MARKET FORECAST
Derek J. Mathis, Director of Industrial Development, WestRock
derek.mathis@westrock.com | 843.851.4722

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Industrial Report | Derek Mathis

  • 2. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com CTAR-CID COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL MARKET FORECAST Derek J. Mathis, Director of Industrial Development, WestRock
  • 4. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com NATIONAL/REGIONAL TRENDS National: ā€¢ 21 quarters of positive net absorption ā€¢ 6.7% vacancy ā€¢ Rental rate growth is up 3.5% YOY. Tighter markets in the 5% range ā€¢ Demand outpacing new product delivery in most major markets ā€¢ Cap rates compressed ā€¢ Cargo shift ā€¢ Projected occupancy gains of 380mm SF in warehouse/distribution space from 2014-2017 Regional: ā€¢ Mirrors national trends relative to absorption, rent growth and vacancy rates ā€¢ Significant speculative and BTSFL development underway in larger regional metros such as ATL, CLT, GSP and SAV
  • 6. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com LOCAL TRENDS TYPE OF ACTIVITY? ā€¢ FDI driving SC economy ā€¢ Balanced mix of manufacturing and distribution WHERE? ā€¢ Prospects prefer ā€œproject readyā€ locations ā€¢ Infill traditionally preferred location but that is changing ā€¢ Jedburg sub-market activity has increased significantly WHY? ā€¢ Favorable business climate ā€¢ Right to Work ā€¢ Infrastructure ā€¢ Clustering ā€¢ Reshoring trend ā€¢ Itā€™s Charlestonā€¦ Relative to prior period Market Indicators+ Vacancy Net absorption Construction Rental Rate + + Note: Construction is the change in Under Construction *Projected Q2 2015 Q3 2015* +Source: Colliers International WRK ā€“ Active projects by type 54% Manufacturing 45% Distribution 1% Other
  • 7. LOCAL TRENDS ā€¢ Mix of leasing and sales ā€¢ Notable transactions ā€¢ Rent Growth ā€¢ Class A rents pushing north of $5/sf (light mfg related) ā€¢ Class A distribution space now in the upper $4/sf range ā€¢ Speculative Development ā€¢ Childress Klein ā€¢ Patillo ā€¢ WestRock/SunCap ā€¢ Atlas Commerce ā€¢ More to come??? ā€¢ Strong demand for particular product types ā€¢ Light manufacturing ā€¢ 20,000 ā€“ 50,000 SF conditioned space Source: JLL
  • 8. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com Case Study: GERBER CHILDRENSWEAR Market Impact? ā€¢ $33mm in investment ā€¢ 100-125 jobs ā€¢ Further reinforces/validates the Jedburg market as viable location for large distribution projects Why Berkeley County? ā€¢ Logistical advantages (proximity to Port and growth markets) ā€¢ Favorable business climate ā€¢ Available economic incentives ā€¢ Operational cost efficiencies to be achieved Why Rockefeller ā€“ MWV Foreign Trade Zone Park? ā€¢ Speed to market/site readiness ā€¢ Confidence in Development teamā€™s ability to deliver ā€¢ Costs ā€¢ Connectivity to future Exit 197 along with Nexton amenities and housing ā€¢ Class A environment and neighboring tenants help to ensure long term valuation of asset
  • 9. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com STRENGTHS Quality of life Breadth of industry Strong Port Pro-business leadership OPPORTUNITIES Momentum Ability to attract and retain talent Public/Private collaboration WEAKNESSES Lack of product Perception that CHS is too expensive THREATS Infrastructure Workforce availability SWOT
  • 10. STRENGTHS www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com WHAT DO COMPANIES WANT? -Site readiness -Attractive business environment (taxes, incentives, permitting) -Labor Pool (cost, availability, education, skill level, training) -Infrastructure/global access (transportation infrastructure, energy costs, intermodal capabilities, certified sites) -Quality of life
  • 11. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com THREATS ā€¢ Workforce ā€¢ Perception among site consultants ā€¢ Perfect our value proposition backed by facts ā€¢ Quantify via labor study ā€¢ Infrastructure ā€¢ Needed: $1.4B per year until 2040 ā€¢ Estimated 1/3 of SC primary and interstate roads are in poor - mediocre condition ā€¢ Current gas "user fee": $0.16/gal User fee has not increased since 1987 ā€¢ 4th lowest in nation ā€¢ User fee does not increase with price of fuel. Revenues grow via consumption ā€¢ 50% of SC roads not eligible for Federal funding
  • 13. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com ā€¢ Recession on horizon? Indicators say yes ā€¢ Feds will raise rates in 2015 ā€“ or will they? ā€¢ Rising dollar makes exports less competitive ā€¢ Industrial sector continues steady improvement ā€¢ Continued ā€œreshoringā€ trend ā€“ FDI ā€¢ We will see impact from growth of E-Commerce/Omni-Channel ā€œShip-from-Storeā€ trend ā€¢ Locally, automotive will be dominant market driver. Temper expectations on suppliers ā€¢ Tech sector growth due to clustering and quality of life for entrepreneurs ā€¢ More Jobs + More People = Increased interest from ā€œoutsideā€ investors/developers seeking yield (increased appetite for risk) ā€¢ Panama Canal expansion and Port investments bode well for our region ā€¢ Inland port continues to exceed expectations ā€¢ Increased development activity in the I-26 Jedburg/Ridgeville sub-markets ā€¢ Additional spec product to come online in 2016 ā€¢ Congestion issues could cause a mini-migration from certain sub-markets ā€¢ Continued rent growth ā€¢ Tri-County region becomes SCā€™s dominant market in terms of deal flow PREDICTIONS
  • 14. www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com CTAR-CID COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL MARKET FORECAST Derek J. Mathis, Director of Industrial Development, WestRock derek.mathis@westrock.com | 843.851.4722