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Indian Equities - Time-In or Timing?

This document discusses whether it is better to take a "time-in" approach or attempt to time the market when investing in Indian equities. It notes that corporate profits in India have halved as a percentage of GDP and profitability has declined significantly for cyclical sectors. However, defensive sectors have seen rising profits. The document argues that India's macroeconomic fundamentals have improved, with lower inflation, fiscal deficits, and a stronger currency and reserves. It believes the worst is behind for Indian corporates and valuations are reasonable, suggesting the best is yet to come for Indian equities with a long-term "time-in" approach.

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STRATEGY | March 2016 March 2016 Indian Equities – Time-In or Timing?
Definition of Investing 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Mar-79 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Mar-93 Mar-95 Mar-97 Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 5.6 INR100 of 1979 can only buy goods “worth” INR 5.6 today! After factoring in the Consumer Price Inflation Index 100 1
50 70 90 110 130 150 Mar-79 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 PurchasingPower 104 100 Fixed deposit would have preserved your Purchasing Power 2
3 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Mar-79 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 PurchasingPower 214 100 Gold would have doubled your Purchasing Power
4 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 Mar-79 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 PurchasingPower 1,567 Equities would have multiplied your Purchasing Power 15x
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Mar-79 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 NominalValue Sensex Sensex cum Dividend Fixed Deposit Gold If you had invested Rs100 ... Over the last 100 years -- > S&P 500 rose 273x --> Include dividends, it rose 18,520x! 47,682 27,828 3,808 1,842 5 Key Objectives of Investing: Over 36 years --> 18x Vs 38x Vs 476x
Mar-15: Taper tantrum II (FED rate hike fear) Sep-08: US Government takes over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Merrill Lynch sold to BoA Lehman Brothers collapse May-10: 750b Euro Stabilization package to PIGS countries Dec-14: Rouble tumbles Aug-11: S&P downgrades US Sovereign Sep-14: Brent crude goes below USD100/bbl Oct-09: Greece public finance weakness revealed triggering sovereign debt crisis 6 Macros: Read, Discussed, Debated Threadbare! Feb-07: Rising default rate hits subprime mortgage industry in US
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Jan-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Sensex Index Feb-07: Rising default rate hits subprime mortgage industry in US Oct-09: Greece public finance weakness revealed triggering sovereign debt crisis Aug-11: S&P downgrades US Sovereign Sep-14: Brent crude goes below USD100/bbl Mar-15: Taper tantrum II (FED rate hike fear) Dec-14: Rouble tumbles Sep-08: US Government takes over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Merril Lynch sold to BoA, Lehman Brothers collapse May-10: 750b Euro Stabilization package to PIIGS countries 7 Macros push you out of Time-in & into TIMING
8 Stocks are SLAVES OF EARNINGS Knowable but Unimportant Important & Knowable Unknowable & Unimportant Important But Unknowable UNIMPORTANT IMPORTANT KNOWABLE UNKNOWABLE
1984-2013  S&P 500 returned 11.1% CAGR  Avg returns earned by investors in Equity mutual funds was a paltry 3.7%!!  Bond Index returned 7.7% CAGR  Avg returns earned by investors in Bond funds was a paltry 0.7%!! 9 Earnings growth / Stock Returns captured by --> Time-In & Not Timing, stupid!
10 The most powerful concept of Finance  The most powerful concept of Finance -> The idea that a $ saved today will grow to be worth more than a $ tomorrow  The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function  DID YOU KNOW -> It's hard to believe that $65.7 billion of Warren Buffett's $66 billion net worth came after his 50th birthday. But it did.
He who understands it, earns it… He who doesn’t…pays it! - Albert Einstein 11 Compound Interest: The Eighth Wonder of World
STRATEGY | March 2016 12 INDIAN EQUITIES – TIME IN OR TIMING? India Macro  The missing "G" (QLP are in place!) India Corporate  The worst is behind India Valuations  Quite reasonable India Flows  The tide has turned India Outlook  Best is ahead
STRATEGY | March 2016 13 Macro: On a very strong footing Government steadfast on the fiscal consolidation roadmap CAD-GDP ruling well within sustainable level of 3% Comfortable forex reserves built up while allowing INR to depreciate nominally Inflation came down to decadal lows; deflationary condition prevails for the wholesale prices -2.8 -2.6 -4.2 -4.7 -1.7 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E CAD/GDP (%)6.5 4.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.5 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Fiscal deficit (Centre, %) 12.4 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.5 6.0 4.9 3.5 3.6 9.6 8.9 7.4 6.0 2.0 -2.5 0.3 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E CPI Inflation (YoY%) WPI Inflation (YoY%) 279 305 294 293 304 341 351 360 47 46 48 54 60 61 65 67 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Forex reserves INR
STRATEGY | March 2016 14 Growth: Is the only missing link Nominal GDP growth has collapsed Witnessing deflation (nominal GDP near real) first time in four decades New projects have dried up, moderate increase in projects under implementation Real indicators of volume growth of industrial production remains weak 15.1 20.2 15.7 13.9 13.3 10.8 8.6 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Nominal GDP growth (YoY%) -5 0 5 10 15 20 FY60 FY64 FY68 FY72 FY76 FY80 FY84 FY88 FY92 FY96 FY00 FY04 FY08 FY12 FY16 40 years! 11.0 8.6 12.9 15.5 2.5 5.3 8.2 2.9 1.1 -0.1 2.8 2.7 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E IIP (YoY%) -2500 0 2500 5000 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 New projects Increase in under implementation projects
STRATEGY | March 2016 15 Government: Once in a lifetime leadership change Government attempting a non-inflationary supply boost while ensuring a safety net Some more measures in the offingImproving “Doing Business” was a key focus of the government Topics DB 2015 Rank DB 2016 Rank Starting a Business 164 155 Dealing with Construction Permits 184 183 Getting Electricity 99 70 Registering Property 138 138 Getting Credit 36 42 Protecting Minority Investors 8 8 Paying Taxes 156 157 Trading Across Borders 133 133 Enforcing Contracts 178 178 Resolving Insolvency 136 136 21% increase in capital outlay in FY17 Budget Passage of Real Estate Regulatory Bill Key bills in the offing include GST, Bankruptcy code, National Waterways bill,
STRATEGY | March 2016 16 RBI: Has gained credibility globally Five focus areas of RBI REER tended to appreciate during Rajan's tenure Expect 100bp cut in policy rates by FY17INR emerged strongest EM currency in 2015 Low inflation Improved transmission Stable currency Financial stability Clean up of banks 95 100 105 110 115 120 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 REER Dr. Rajan assumes office 8.00 7.25 8.00 7.75 7.25 6.75 5.75 4 6 8 10 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Repo Rate -4.4 -4.6 -7.1 -9.5 -9.9 -22.8 -25.0 -34.2 INR CNY SGD THB IDR MYR RUB ZAR 2015
STRATEGY | March 2016 17 Global & Domestic cyclicals: Earnings collapse PAT (INR b) 85% fall from peak 58% fall from peak 48% fall from peak 33% fall from peak
STRATEGY | March 2016 18 But, diversity of corporate India has come to rescue PAT (INR b) 230% rise 164% rise 130% rise 214% rise
STRATEGY | March 2016 19 Share of global cyclicals decline to a new low PAT share down to multi-year low Defensive includes Consumer, Healthcare, Technology, Telecom and Utilities Global cyclicals includes Metals, Oil & Gas and JLR Domestic cyclicals includes Automobiles, Banks, Capital Goods, Cement, Media, NBFCs, Real Estate and Retail 36 40 38 36 33 37 37 36 35 37 38 32 42 36 25 26 38 43 37 36 34 31 28 24 25 19 28 24 25 25 30 34 35 39 45 40 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-08 June-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 June-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 June-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 June-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 June-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 June-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 June-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 June-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16E Defensives Global cyclicals Domestic cyclicals
STRATEGY | March 2016 20 Corporate Profit to GDP has halved Corporate Profit to GDP (%) 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.3 7.8 5.5 6.5 6.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Average of 5.5%
STRATEGY | March 2016 21 And Corporate profitability has collapsed 16.3 16.3 16.4 17.2 16.1 14.3 14.8 14.6 13.1 12.5 11.9 11.6 11.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Corporate PAT Margin (%) Average : 14.3%
STRATEGY | March 2016 26 23 42 52 82 83 103 55 95 88 71 64 66 81 68 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Average of 66% for the period 22 Markets valuations below averages, on lowest margins Sensex P/E (x) Sensex P/B (x) Market Cap to GDP (%)Trend in India's contribution to world market cap (%) 4.2 1.6 2.5 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 10 Year Avg: 2.7x 24.6 10.7 15.8 9 13 17 21 25 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 10 Year Avg: 16.7x 3.0 3.3 1.6 2.2 0.75 1.50 2.25 3.00 3.75 Feb-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 India's Contribution to World Mcap (%) Average of2.3%
STRATEGY | March 2016 23 What drove FII selling: Downgrades + Valuation + Overweight Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY14 Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY15 Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY16 11% downgrade 1,766 1,793 1,836 1,854 1,875 1,866 1,761 1,698 1,662 1,605 1,561 1,515 1,471 1,435 1,366 1,332 16.3 17.5 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.1 19.9 19.7 18.4 18.5 15.3 11.9 8.7 6.0 0.9 -1.6 Dec 13 Mar 14 June 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Mar 15 May 15 June 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 FY16 EPS (INR) FY16 EPS Growth YoY (%) 24% downgrade MSCI India v/s EM P/E premium/Discount (%) 84 0 25 50 75 100 125 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 MSCI India Vs EM PE Premium (%) Average of 58%
STRATEGY | March 2016 24 Crystal ball gazing the Future Short term hazy, Long term clear
STRATEGY | March 2016 25 Case for India emerging as an asset class22 34 59 155 301 465 475 494 524 618 721 834 948 1,239 1,226 1,366 1,708 1,879 1,828 1,864 2,042 2,074 2,249 2,453 2,702 2,976 3,278 3,611 3,977 FY51 FY60 FY70 FY80 FY90 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E 1st US$ tn 2nd US$ tn 7 years 58 years 3rd US$ tn 4th US$ tn 3 years 5 years The NextTrillionDollar opportunity IndiaGDP trend(USD B) FY51-08: 7.3% CAGR FY08-15: 7.4% CAGR Top 10 GDP countries Rank Country Dec 2015 GDP (USD b) 1 United States 17,968 2 China 11,385 3 Japan 4,116 4 Germany 3,371 5 United Kingdom 2,865 6 France 2,423 7 India 2,183 8 Italy 1,819 9 Brazil 1,800 10 Canada 1,573 India GDP (USD b)
STRATEGY | March 2016 26 Domestic buying would dwarf FII flows Trend in DII Flows (USDb) 0.3 0.1 3.2 6.4 17.7 13.1 5.1 -4.1 -0.9 -12.7 -8.9 -3.7 13.7 11.8 13.3 14.9 16.7 0.4 0.2 3.3 6.0 12.3 10.5 3.1 -2.4 -0.7 -9.7 -6.6 -2.3 7.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E DII Flows (USD b) DII as % to Financial Savings USD28b Avg DII/FSof 4.4% USD-12b Avg DII/FSof 1.2% DII as % to Financial Savings
STRATEGY | March 2016 27 Sub-par earnings growth for 8 years now Sensex EPS: Rebound in FY16-18 with 19% CAGR Versus 6% CAGR during FY08-16 81 129 181 250 266 291 278 280 216 236 272 361 446 540 720 833 820 834 1,024 1,120 1,182 1,338 1,354 1,332 1,550 1,890 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY93-96: 45% CAGR FY96-03: 1% CAGR FY03-08: 25% CAGR FY08-16: 6% CAGR FY16-18E: 19% CAGR FY93-FY15: 14% CAGR
STRATEGY | March 2016 28 Corporate Profit to GDP has hit the bottom 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.3 7.8 5.5 6.5 6.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corp Profit to GDP (%) Average Average Plus Corporate Profit to GDP Average: 5.5% Average Plus: 6.6% High:7.8%
STRATEGY | March 2016 29 REVERSION TO MEAN = 24% EPS CAGR Note: Nominal GDP Growth & Sales Growth estimate of 11-12% in FY17-FY20 361 446 540 720 833 820 834 1,024 1,120 1,182 1,338 1,354 1,332 1,672 2,081 2,572 3,159 1,823 2,443 3,222 4,195 0 900 1,800 2,700 3,600 4,500 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Sensex EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 24% CAGR 33% CAGR
STRATEGY | March 2016 30 And stocks are slaves of earnings! Sensex Index 5,591 6,493 11,280 13,072 15,644 9,709 17,528 19,445 17,404 18,836 22,386 27,957 24,804 30,658 37,563 45,686 55,215 34,232 46,252 61,490 80,716 5,000 25,000 45,000 65,000 85,000 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 22% CAGR 34% CAGR 39% CAGR 6% CAGR Trailing PE Average: 17.5x Average Plus: 19.2x High:25.2x
STRATEGY | March 2016 31 Corporate Profit Margins have hit the bottom Note: Nominal GDP Growth & Sales Growth estimate of 11-12% in FY17-FY20 16.3 16.3 16.4 17.2 16.1 14.3 14.8 14.6 13.1 12.5 11.9 11.6 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 12.2 13.4 14.6 15.7 8.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corporate PAT Margin (%) Corporate PAT Margin Average: 14.3% Average Plus: 15.7% High:17.2%
STRATEGY | March 2016 32 REVERSION TO MEAN = 25% EPS CAGR 361 446 540 720 833 820 834 1,024 1,120 1,182 1,338 1,354 1,332 1,670 2,084 2,590 3,206 1,870 2,600 3,587 4,916 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Sensex EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 25% CAGR 39% CAGR
STRATEGY | March 2016 33 And stocks are slaves of earnings! 5,591 6,493 11,280 13,072 15,644 9,709 17,528 19,445 17,404 18,836 22,386 27,957 24,804 30,628 37,624 46,009 56,036 35,111 49,227 68,471 94,598 5,000 25,000 45,000 65,000 85,000 105,000 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 23% CAGR 40% CAGR 39% CAGR 6% CAGR Trailing PE Average: 17.5x Average Plus: 19.2x High:25.2x
STRATEGY | March 2016 34 Applied to Nifty, results are similar Corporate Profit to GDP (%) Scenarios of Nifty EPS Scenarios of Indian Markets - Nifty 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.3 7.8 5.5 6.5 6.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corp Profit to GDP (%) Average Average Plus Corporate Profit to GDP Average: 5.5% Average Plus: 6.6% High:7.8% 131 169 184 236 281 251 247 315 347 365 401 410 394 495 616 761 935 539 723 953 1,241 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Nifty EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 24% CAGR 33% CAGR 1,772 2,036 3,403 3,822 4,735 3,021 5,249 5,834 5,296 5,683 6,704 8,491 7,539 9,624 11,597 13,859 16,444 11,121 14,874 19,576 25,440 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 22% CAGR 36% CAGR 37% CAGR 6% CAGR
STRATEGY | March 2016 35 Applied to Nifty, results are similar Corporate PAT Margin (%) Scenarios of Nifty EPS Scenarios of Indian Markets - Nifty 16.3 16.3 16.4 17.2 16.1 14.3 14.8 14.6 13.1 12.5 11.9 11.6 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 12.0 13.1 14.1 15.2 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corporate PAT Margin (%) Corporate PAT Margin Average: 14.3% Average Plus: 15.7% High:17.2% 131 169 184 236 281 251 247 315 347 365 401 410 394 494 617 766 949 547 753 1,030 1,401 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Nifty EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 25% CAGR 37% CAGR 1,772 2,036 3,403 3,822 4,735 3,021 5,249 5,834 5,296 5,683 6,704 8,491 7,539 9,615 11,615 13,957 16,688 11,270 15,486 21,144 28,712 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 22% CAGR 40% CAGR 37% CAGR 6% CAGR
STRATEGY | March 2016 Indian Markets: Up 100x in 30 years 36
STRATEGY | March 2016 March 2016 Indian Equities – Time-In or Timing? Thank You
STRATEGY | March 2016 38 DISCLOSURE Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) Member of NSE, BSE & MSEI - CIN no.: U65990MH1994PLC079418 Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Registration Nos.: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE (F&O): INF011041257; BSE (CD); MSEI (Cash): INB261041231; MSEI (F&O): INF261041231; MSEI (CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS & Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML which is a group company of MOSL. Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd is a distributor of Mutual Fund & IPOs. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. Investment in Securities is subject to market risk and there is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com , Contact No.:022-30801085

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Indian Equities - Time-In or Timing?

  • 1.
    STRATEGY | March2016 March 2016 Indian Equities – Time-In or Timing?
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
    0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Mar-79 Mar-81 Mar-83 Mar-85 Mar-87 Mar-89 Mar-91 Apr-93 Apr-95 Apr-97 Apr-99 Apr-01 Apr-03 Apr-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 NominalValue Sensex Sensex cumDividend Fixed Deposit Gold If you had invested Rs100 ... Over the last 100 years -- > S&P 500 rose 273x --> Include dividends, it rose 18,520x! 47,682 27,828 3,808 1,842 5 Key Objectives of Investing: Over 36 years --> 18x Vs 38x Vs 476x
  • 7.
    Mar-15: Taper tantrum II(FED rate hike fear) Sep-08: US Government takes over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Merrill Lynch sold to BoA Lehman Brothers collapse May-10: 750b Euro Stabilization package to PIGS countries Dec-14: Rouble tumbles Aug-11: S&P downgrades US Sovereign Sep-14: Brent crude goes below USD100/bbl Oct-09: Greece public finance weakness revealed triggering sovereign debt crisis 6 Macros: Read, Discussed, Debated Threadbare! Feb-07: Rising default rate hits subprime mortgage industry in US
  • 8.
    5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Jan-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Sensex Index Feb-07: Rising default ratehits subprime mortgage industry in US Oct-09: Greece public finance weakness revealed triggering sovereign debt crisis Aug-11: S&P downgrades US Sovereign Sep-14: Brent crude goes below USD100/bbl Mar-15: Taper tantrum II (FED rate hike fear) Dec-14: Rouble tumbles Sep-08: US Government takes over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Merril Lynch sold to BoA, Lehman Brothers collapse May-10: 750b Euro Stabilization package to PIIGS countries 7 Macros push you out of Time-in & into TIMING
  • 9.
    8 Stocks are SLAVESOF EARNINGS Knowable but Unimportant Important & Knowable Unknowable & Unimportant Important But Unknowable UNIMPORTANT IMPORTANT KNOWABLE UNKNOWABLE
  • 10.
    1984-2013  S&P 500returned 11.1% CAGR  Avg returns earned by investors in Equity mutual funds was a paltry 3.7%!!  Bond Index returned 7.7% CAGR  Avg returns earned by investors in Bond funds was a paltry 0.7%!! 9 Earnings growth / Stock Returns captured by --> Time-In & Not Timing, stupid!
  • 11.
    10 The most powerfulconcept of Finance  The most powerful concept of Finance -> The idea that a $ saved today will grow to be worth more than a $ tomorrow  The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function  DID YOU KNOW -> It's hard to believe that $65.7 billion of Warren Buffett's $66 billion net worth came after his 50th birthday. But it did.
  • 12.
    He who understandsit, earns it… He who doesn’t…pays it! - Albert Einstein 11 Compound Interest: The Eighth Wonder of World
  • 13.
    STRATEGY | March2016 12 INDIAN EQUITIES – TIME IN OR TIMING? India Macro  The missing "G" (QLP are in place!) India Corporate  The worst is behind India Valuations  Quite reasonable India Flows  The tide has turned India Outlook  Best is ahead
  • 14.
    STRATEGY | March2016 13 Macro: On a very strong footing Government steadfast on the fiscal consolidation roadmap CAD-GDP ruling well within sustainable level of 3% Comfortable forex reserves built up while allowing INR to depreciate nominally Inflation came down to decadal lows; deflationary condition prevails for the wholesale prices -2.8 -2.6 -4.2 -4.7 -1.7 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E CAD/GDP (%)6.5 4.9 5.9 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.5 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Fiscal deficit (Centre, %) 12.4 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.5 6.0 4.9 3.5 3.6 9.6 8.9 7.4 6.0 2.0 -2.5 0.3 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E CPI Inflation (YoY%) WPI Inflation (YoY%) 279 305 294 293 304 341 351 360 47 46 48 54 60 61 65 67 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Forex reserves INR
  • 15.
    STRATEGY | March2016 14 Growth: Is the only missing link Nominal GDP growth has collapsed Witnessing deflation (nominal GDP near real) first time in four decades New projects have dried up, moderate increase in projects under implementation Real indicators of volume growth of industrial production remains weak 15.1 20.2 15.7 13.9 13.3 10.8 8.6 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Nominal GDP growth (YoY%) -5 0 5 10 15 20 FY60 FY64 FY68 FY72 FY76 FY80 FY84 FY88 FY92 FY96 FY00 FY04 FY08 FY12 FY16 40 years! 11.0 8.6 12.9 15.5 2.5 5.3 8.2 2.9 1.1 -0.1 2.8 2.7 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E IIP (YoY%) -2500 0 2500 5000 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 New projects Increase in under implementation projects
  • 16.
    STRATEGY | March2016 15 Government: Once in a lifetime leadership change Government attempting a non-inflationary supply boost while ensuring a safety net Some more measures in the offingImproving “Doing Business” was a key focus of the government Topics DB 2015 Rank DB 2016 Rank Starting a Business 164 155 Dealing with Construction Permits 184 183 Getting Electricity 99 70 Registering Property 138 138 Getting Credit 36 42 Protecting Minority Investors 8 8 Paying Taxes 156 157 Trading Across Borders 133 133 Enforcing Contracts 178 178 Resolving Insolvency 136 136 21% increase in capital outlay in FY17 Budget Passage of Real Estate Regulatory Bill Key bills in the offing include GST, Bankruptcy code, National Waterways bill,
  • 17.
    STRATEGY | March2016 16 RBI: Has gained credibility globally Five focus areas of RBI REER tended to appreciate during Rajan's tenure Expect 100bp cut in policy rates by FY17INR emerged strongest EM currency in 2015 Low inflation Improved transmission Stable currency Financial stability Clean up of banks 95 100 105 110 115 120 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 REER Dr. Rajan assumes office 8.00 7.25 8.00 7.75 7.25 6.75 5.75 4 6 8 10 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Repo Rate -4.4 -4.6 -7.1 -9.5 -9.9 -22.8 -25.0 -34.2 INR CNY SGD THB IDR MYR RUB ZAR 2015
  • 18.
    STRATEGY | March2016 17 Global & Domestic cyclicals: Earnings collapse PAT (INR b) 85% fall from peak 58% fall from peak 48% fall from peak 33% fall from peak
  • 19.
    STRATEGY | March2016 18 But, diversity of corporate India has come to rescue PAT (INR b) 230% rise 164% rise 130% rise 214% rise
  • 20.
    STRATEGY | March2016 19 Share of global cyclicals decline to a new low PAT share down to multi-year low Defensive includes Consumer, Healthcare, Technology, Telecom and Utilities Global cyclicals includes Metals, Oil & Gas and JLR Domestic cyclicals includes Automobiles, Banks, Capital Goods, Cement, Media, NBFCs, Real Estate and Retail 36 40 38 36 33 37 37 36 35 37 38 32 42 36 25 26 38 43 37 36 34 31 28 24 25 19 28 24 25 25 30 34 35 39 45 40 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-08 June-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 June-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 June-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 June-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 June-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 June-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 June-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 June-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16E Defensives Global cyclicals Domestic cyclicals
  • 21.
    STRATEGY | March2016 20 Corporate Profit to GDP has halved Corporate Profit to GDP (%) 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.3 7.8 5.5 6.5 6.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Average of 5.5%
  • 22.
    STRATEGY | March2016 21 And Corporate profitability has collapsed 16.3 16.3 16.4 17.2 16.1 14.3 14.8 14.6 13.1 12.5 11.9 11.6 11.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Corporate PAT Margin (%) Average : 14.3%
  • 23.
    STRATEGY | March2016 26 23 42 52 82 83 103 55 95 88 71 64 66 81 68 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E Average of 66% for the period 22 Markets valuations below averages, on lowest margins Sensex P/E (x) Sensex P/B (x) Market Cap to GDP (%)Trend in India's contribution to world market cap (%) 4.2 1.6 2.5 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 10 Year Avg: 2.7x 24.6 10.7 15.8 9 13 17 21 25 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 10 Year Avg: 16.7x 3.0 3.3 1.6 2.2 0.75 1.50 2.25 3.00 3.75 Feb-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 India's Contribution to World Mcap (%) Average of2.3%
  • 24.
    STRATEGY | March2016 23 What drove FII selling: Downgrades + Valuation + Overweight Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY14 Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY15 Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY16 11% downgrade 1,766 1,793 1,836 1,854 1,875 1,866 1,761 1,698 1,662 1,605 1,561 1,515 1,471 1,435 1,366 1,332 16.3 17.5 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.1 19.9 19.7 18.4 18.5 15.3 11.9 8.7 6.0 0.9 -1.6 Dec 13 Mar 14 June 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Mar 15 May 15 June 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 FY16 EPS (INR) FY16 EPS Growth YoY (%) 24% downgrade MSCI India v/s EM P/E premium/Discount (%) 84 0 25 50 75 100 125 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 MSCI India Vs EM PE Premium (%) Average of 58%
  • 25.
    STRATEGY | March2016 24 Crystal ball gazing the Future Short term hazy, Long term clear
  • 26.
    STRATEGY | March2016 25 Case for India emerging as an asset class22 34 59 155 301 465 475 494 524 618 721 834 948 1,239 1,226 1,366 1,708 1,879 1,828 1,864 2,042 2,074 2,249 2,453 2,702 2,976 3,278 3,611 3,977 FY51 FY60 FY70 FY80 FY90 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E 1st US$ tn 2nd US$ tn 7 years 58 years 3rd US$ tn 4th US$ tn 3 years 5 years The NextTrillionDollar opportunity IndiaGDP trend(USD B) FY51-08: 7.3% CAGR FY08-15: 7.4% CAGR Top 10 GDP countries Rank Country Dec 2015 GDP (USD b) 1 United States 17,968 2 China 11,385 3 Japan 4,116 4 Germany 3,371 5 United Kingdom 2,865 6 France 2,423 7 India 2,183 8 Italy 1,819 9 Brazil 1,800 10 Canada 1,573 India GDP (USD b)
  • 27.
    STRATEGY | March2016 26 Domestic buying would dwarf FII flows Trend in DII Flows (USDb) 0.3 0.1 3.2 6.4 17.7 13.1 5.1 -4.1 -0.9 -12.7 -8.9 -3.7 13.7 11.8 13.3 14.9 16.7 0.4 0.2 3.3 6.0 12.3 10.5 3.1 -2.4 -0.7 -9.7 -6.6 -2.3 7.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E DII Flows (USD b) DII as % to Financial Savings USD28b Avg DII/FSof 4.4% USD-12b Avg DII/FSof 1.2% DII as % to Financial Savings
  • 28.
    STRATEGY | March2016 27 Sub-par earnings growth for 8 years now Sensex EPS: Rebound in FY16-18 with 19% CAGR Versus 6% CAGR during FY08-16 81 129 181 250 266 291 278 280 216 236 272 361 446 540 720 833 820 834 1,024 1,120 1,182 1,338 1,354 1,332 1,550 1,890 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY93-96: 45% CAGR FY96-03: 1% CAGR FY03-08: 25% CAGR FY08-16: 6% CAGR FY16-18E: 19% CAGR FY93-FY15: 14% CAGR
  • 29.
    STRATEGY | March2016 28 Corporate Profit to GDP has hit the bottom 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.3 7.8 5.5 6.5 6.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corp Profit to GDP (%) Average Average Plus Corporate Profit to GDP Average: 5.5% Average Plus: 6.6% High:7.8%
  • 30.
    STRATEGY | March2016 29 REVERSION TO MEAN = 24% EPS CAGR Note: Nominal GDP Growth & Sales Growth estimate of 11-12% in FY17-FY20 361 446 540 720 833 820 834 1,024 1,120 1,182 1,338 1,354 1,332 1,672 2,081 2,572 3,159 1,823 2,443 3,222 4,195 0 900 1,800 2,700 3,600 4,500 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Sensex EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 24% CAGR 33% CAGR
  • 31.
    STRATEGY | March2016 30 And stocks are slaves of earnings! Sensex Index 5,591 6,493 11,280 13,072 15,644 9,709 17,528 19,445 17,404 18,836 22,386 27,957 24,804 30,658 37,563 45,686 55,215 34,232 46,252 61,490 80,716 5,000 25,000 45,000 65,000 85,000 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 22% CAGR 34% CAGR 39% CAGR 6% CAGR Trailing PE Average: 17.5x Average Plus: 19.2x High:25.2x
  • 32.
    STRATEGY | March2016 31 Corporate Profit Margins have hit the bottom Note: Nominal GDP Growth & Sales Growth estimate of 11-12% in FY17-FY20 16.3 16.3 16.4 17.2 16.1 14.3 14.8 14.6 13.1 12.5 11.9 11.6 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 12.2 13.4 14.6 15.7 8.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corporate PAT Margin (%) Corporate PAT Margin Average: 14.3% Average Plus: 15.7% High:17.2%
  • 33.
    STRATEGY | March2016 32 REVERSION TO MEAN = 25% EPS CAGR 361 446 540 720 833 820 834 1,024 1,120 1,182 1,338 1,354 1,332 1,670 2,084 2,590 3,206 1,870 2,600 3,587 4,916 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Sensex EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 25% CAGR 39% CAGR
  • 34.
    STRATEGY | March2016 33 And stocks are slaves of earnings! 5,591 6,493 11,280 13,072 15,644 9,709 17,528 19,445 17,404 18,836 22,386 27,957 24,804 30,628 37,624 46,009 56,036 35,111 49,227 68,471 94,598 5,000 25,000 45,000 65,000 85,000 105,000 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 23% CAGR 40% CAGR 39% CAGR 6% CAGR Trailing PE Average: 17.5x Average Plus: 19.2x High:25.2x
  • 35.
    STRATEGY | March2016 34 Applied to Nifty, results are similar Corporate Profit to GDP (%) Scenarios of Nifty EPS Scenarios of Indian Markets - Nifty 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.3 7.8 5.5 6.5 6.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corp Profit to GDP (%) Average Average Plus Corporate Profit to GDP Average: 5.5% Average Plus: 6.6% High:7.8% 131 169 184 236 281 251 247 315 347 365 401 410 394 495 616 761 935 539 723 953 1,241 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Nifty EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 24% CAGR 33% CAGR 1,772 2,036 3,403 3,822 4,735 3,021 5,249 5,834 5,296 5,683 6,704 8,491 7,539 9,624 11,597 13,859 16,444 11,121 14,874 19,576 25,440 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 22% CAGR 36% CAGR 37% CAGR 6% CAGR
  • 36.
    STRATEGY | March2016 35 Applied to Nifty, results are similar Corporate PAT Margin (%) Scenarios of Nifty EPS Scenarios of Indian Markets - Nifty 16.3 16.3 16.4 17.2 16.1 14.3 14.8 14.6 13.1 12.5 11.9 11.6 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 12.0 13.1 14.1 15.2 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Corporate PAT Margin (%) Corporate PAT Margin Average: 14.3% Average Plus: 15.7% High:17.2% 131 169 184 236 281 251 247 315 347 365 401 410 394 494 617 766 949 547 753 1,030 1,401 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Nifty EPS (INR) Average Average Plus 25% CAGR 37% CAGR 1,772 2,036 3,403 3,822 4,735 3,021 5,249 5,834 5,296 5,683 6,704 8,491 7,539 9,615 11,615 13,957 16,688 11,270 15,486 21,144 28,712 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Average Average Plus 22% CAGR 40% CAGR 37% CAGR 6% CAGR
  • 37.
    STRATEGY | March2016 Indian Markets: Up 100x in 30 years 36
  • 38.
    STRATEGY | March2016 March 2016 Indian Equities – Time-In or Timing? Thank You
  • 39.
    STRATEGY | March2016 38 DISCLOSURE Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) Member of NSE, BSE & MSEI - CIN no.: U65990MH1994PLC079418 Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Registration Nos.: NSE (Cash): INB231041238; NSE (F&O): INF231041238; NSE (CD): INE231041238; BSE (Cash): INB011041257; BSE (F&O): INF011041257; BSE (CD); MSEI (Cash): INB261041231; MSEI (F&O): INF261041231; MSEI (CD): INE261041231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-2015; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2000; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS & Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML which is a group company of MOSL. Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd is a distributor of Mutual Fund & IPOs. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. Investment in Securities is subject to market risk and there is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com , Contact No.:022-30801085