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Insight Thursday
Inclusion, Resilience, Change
Lessons from the Strategy 2020 Review
Vinod Thomas
Director General
Independent Evaluation
22 May 2014
Development Challenges and
ADB’s Response
• Inclusion and Poverty
• Resilience and Sustainability
• The Governance Deficit
• ADB Reforms
2
Inclusive
Growth
Making Growth More Inclusive
It’s better for growth itself
ADB framework: is it AND or OR?
Not any,
but broad based
growth
Inclusive
Growth
High Growth Social ProtectionAccess to
Opportunities
3
Making Growth More Sustainable
Paradigm shift: here and now
ADB investments in mitigation and adaptation must be viewed
as a benefit, not a cost to growth
Sustainable
Growth
High Growth
4
Asia’s Governance Deficit
5
• ADB stakeholders:
Corruption and poor
governance are the
biggest threats to
development
• Weak institutional and
human capacity in Asia
and the Pacific present
complex governance
challenges
Asia vis-à-vis other regions
Inclusion and Sustainability
Conflictive or Complementary?
6
• Trade-offs
• Energy-inclusion-
environment
• Forests-livelihood-carbon
• Land-urbanization-
disasters
• Policies
• Fuel subsidies
• Renewable energy
• Natural resource
management
Environment and Governance
Conflictive or Complementary?
7
Government EffectivenessversusEnvironmental Performance
Environmental performance is measured by the environmental performance index. The Environmental Performan
Index (EPI) ranks how well countries perform on high-priority environmental issues in two broad policy areas:
protection of human health from environmental harm and protection of ecosystems. Government effectiveness i
Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010. Washington, DC.
One ADB
Harnessing all resources
 Making crucial links
– Seek greater complementarity at country level
– Public-Private: Forge links and synergy
– HQ and RM: differentiate decentralization according to
country and portfolio specifics
 Way of doing things
– Work across boundaries, decrease fragmentation of
skills
– Provide stronger incentives for achieving outcomes
– Stronger support for implementation supervision
– Motivation for innovation and risk-taking
8
ADB Strategy
“Driven by the inspiration and dedication to
improving people’s lives in Asia and the Pacific”
Thank You!
https://www.facebook.com/adbevaluation
evaluation@adb.org
www.adb.org/evaluation
https://twitter.com/adbevaluation
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Inclusion, Resilience, Change: Lessons from the Strategy 2020 Review

Editor's Notes

  1. Some big questions fall out of these issues, which will be discussed in this presentation: How to address the triple bottom line of supporting simultaneously growth, inclusion and environmental sustainability? Do these objectives complement each other – or are they conflictive? What does pursuing a triple bottom line require of governance systems in the region? How can ADB best position itself to support countries in the region?
  2. The region has experienced one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world income and non-income inequality have been on the rise poverty remains widespread with close to 750 million people living on $1.25 a day Gini coefficients have risen in 12 out of 28 Asian economies, affecting 80% of Asia’s population IMF (2011): a 10% decrease in inequality, increases the length of the growth spell by 50% More equal distribution allows for greater investments in human capital Bigger market and pool of entrepreneurship Pursuing inclusive growth means including lower income groups in the growth process It does not mean growing first and then redistributing the benefits of growth later ADB should seek greater economic and social inclusion in infrastructure operations, and increasing support for projects that broaden access to opportunities and support social protection. There are examples to build on in the areas of rural development, social protection, access to energy, and transport infrastructure. ADB’s private sector operations can contribute more to inclusive growth through initiatives for inclusive businesses and projects in frontier markets.
  3. Runaway climate change and worsening environmental and disaster trends outpace the response. Climate change is a serious threat to the economic prosperity of the region fourfold rise in floods and storms the poor are the least able to cope, adding another layer to their vulnerability. Thailand 2011: floods losses $45.5 billion; 680 killed; disrupted global supply chains Environmental impacts of growth as it has been pursued to date. rising urban air and water pollution Asia’s urban population – 43% of total in 2010 (UNESCAP); over 55% by 2030 Beijing, 12 January 2013: highest PM2.5 level recorded at over PM2.5 700μg/m3, 30 times higher than guideline levels set by the World Health Organization. Delhi 2013: most polluted city in the world: PM2.5 level at 153μg/m3 annual mean (WHO 2014) The rate of growth in greenhouse gas emissions has also accelerated Asian countries expected to generate 45% of global energy-related emissions by 2030. ADB must make a far-reaching contribution to environmental sustainability and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The institution has made sizable disaster response investments in rehabilitation and reconstruction following disasters. It now needs to scale up its contribution to prevention by investing much more in climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and disaster risk management. Investments in disaster resilience, ought to be a major priority for ADB, and not a niche-product. While energy has made progress through investments in efficiency and renewables, transport needs to go much further in shifting from constructing roads to alternatives such as rails and waterways.
  4. Responding to the complex challenges that face the region, requires strong governance and public sector management systems. ADB stakeholders, however, consistently cite poor governance and/or corruption as the biggest threat to development in their countries. In the last two surveys, respondents placed corruption above all other threats to development, including poor infrastructure. The bottom line: stakeholders view the region’s governance deficits as an even bigger impediment than its infrastructure deficits. Results-oriented public sector management is a prerequisite to simultaneously fostering economic growth while ensuring social inclusion and environmental sustainability.   ADB needs to sustain its operational support for governance, in particular through its sector operations, and be responsive to growing demand for such support, including from middle-income countries.
  5. The heavy burden of environmental destruction in Asia and the Pacific is understood and even appreciated to a considerable extent. Nevertheless, just as in many other parts of the world, there is little action. The most likely reason may be weaknesses in governance, which is a key driver of change in boosting environmental performance. Longer-term resilience must be built by improving governance at every level.
  6. Crucial Links The focus in country programming should be on achieving development outcomes that respond to country specific needs. ADB should be selective in the outcomes it supports, ensure that sector operations support those outcomes, and should rely more on partnerships and strategic alliances with development partners The degree and nature of decentralization to RMs should be driven by country- and portfolio specifics. Large portfolios that feature program-based lending require more staff and authority on the ground than smaller portfolios, dominated by straightforward project financing. The proportion of the portfolio administered by resident missions has in fact declined since 2008, dropping steadily from 51.3% in 2008 to 35.2% in 2012. The proportion of loans, grants and TA projects administered by resident missions rose to 34% in 2009, and subsequently dropped to 30% in 2012. In the same period, the expenses at resident missions have increased by 69%. Way of Doing Things Skill shortages are frequently cited by CoPs as a concern. Fragmentation of staff skills and a lack of incentives to work across regional/sectoral boundaries undermines effectiveness. To improve the achievement of development outcomes, ADB will need to strengthen implementation supervision and ensure the sustainability of its operations, particularly in infrastructure. Increasing the use of results-based lending to finance transport, for example, would facilitate moving beyond repeater construction projects to wider support for operations and maintenance. The 2013 AER found that the success rate of sovereign operations has remained stagnant over the years, standing at 67% in the 2000s, similar to what was recorded in the 1990s. Even in sectors and countries where overall success ratings are relatively good, there can be particular sustainability issues. In the operations evaluated by IED in project performance evaluation reports and project completion report (PCR) validation, only 49% of operations are both effective and sustainable, while 27% are likely to be neither sustainable nor effective.