Carrie Kissel presented on COVID-19's implications for transportation at the 2020 National Regional Transportation Conference.

1. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
Impacts of COVID-19 on Rural and Small
Metro Communities and Transportation:
Navigating Uncertainty
July 29, 2020

2. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Major Uncertainty
We don’t know:
• Timeline
• Extent of health impacts
• Extent of economic impacts
• Impacts on human behavior and culture change
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3. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: New Opportunities?
We do know:
• Inequality along race and income/occupation lines is clear
– viral exposure, health outcomes, household economic success
• Some investments of time/resources are likely to be good
bets to improve regional resilience regardless of what
happens
• Transportation demand is different than it was pre-COVID-
19 and is likely still changing
• It may be a good time to test new ideas
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4. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
We do know:
• When/where businesses closed, transportation changed
instantly and dramatically
• User-based revenues are down
• It may take a long time to see pre-COVID transportation
patterns return everywhere
• Opportunities for rethinking transportation, across modes?
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5. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Data tools tell us what has
happened recently
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https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/week
-transportation
https://data.covid.umd.edu/

6. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Overall personal travel, nationally (Source: BTS)
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7. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Overall personal travel, nationally (Source: BTS)
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8. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Automobility:
• VMT & Gas tax decreases
• Places are rethinking street space
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Image credit: WHSV3, Staunton, VA,
June 2, 2020

9. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Transit:
• From Q1 2019 – Q1 2020, ridership decreased ~10%
(Source: APTA Public Transportation Ridership Report)
• Impact on revenue
• New service models to minimize driver/rider risk:
– Delivering essential items to homebound individuals
– Rear door boarding, or one passenger per trip
– System closures
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10. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Bicycle and pedestrian:
• Minimal consistent data exist across regions, but anecdotal
data shows an increase in bike/ped
• Demand for bikes: recreation and non-recreation
• Low-cost transportation
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Image credit: New York Times, May 18, 2020

11. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Air travel: Minimizing trips, telecommunications in lieu of
long-distance travel
(Source: BTS)
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12. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Freight (sources: left- BTS, right- ATRI)
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13. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
COVID-19: Transportation Impacts, So Far…
Freight:
• Ebbs and flows
• Global trade bottlenecks due to differing health statuses
• Business reopenings affect B2B freight
• Future freight reliant on economic activity
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14. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
Pre-COVID-19: Economic Resilience
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Slide credit: Erik Pages,
EntreWorks Consulting

15. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
Pre-COVID-19: Economic Resilience
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Slide credit: Erik Pages, EntreWorks Consulting

16. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
Pre-COVID-19: Economic Resilience
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Slide credit: Joseph Blasé, Rutgers University

17. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
Transportation, Economy, Equity, Future?
Transportation data sets are retrospective
Economic data shows what happened in prior recessions
The future is not likely to be a trend line from the past
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18. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
Transportation, Economy, Equity, Future?
New ways of thinking about multiple possible future
circumstances  exploratory scenario planning
Useful for thinking about during/post-COVID scenarios
Incorporate into organizational planning and regional
transportation/economic development planning efforts
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19. REGIONALTRANSPORTATION
Contact Us
Carrie Kissel, Associate Director
NADO Research Foundation
ckissel@nado.org
www.NADO.org | www.RuralTransportation.org
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