The document discusses how many widely held beliefs in economics and finance have been proven wrong over time. It provides examples of interest rates becoming negative, inflation being much lower than expected, and the price of oil fluctuating dramatically instead of steadily increasing. The author argues that one should be humble and flexible in their views instead of rigidly holding positions, as the financial world is always changing in ways that may contradict current assumptions. Staying open-minded and avoiding extreme portfolio positions based on specific worldviews can help investors adapt to changes.
Brexit, G20 and Italian budget key factors this weekHantec Markets
The politics of how the UK is set up to leave the European Union remains a key driver of negative sentiment on financial markets. Add in the slowing global growth trends, the US/China trade dispute and the argument over the Italian budget and there are plenty of reasons to be negative. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities.
Jeremy Grantham provides a brief summary of key points in a short quarterly letter due to travel and client conferences. He notes the dire situation in the Eurozone and feels vindicated in his forecast of a multi-year economic slowdown due to high debt levels and financial incompetence. Additionally, developed nations face permanently slower growth due to aging populations and inadequate savings. The US specifically has declining infrastructure, education, and government effectiveness that threaten competitiveness. Grantham recommends avoiding lower quality US stocks but having a normal weight in global equities overall, tilting toward safety, and being willing to hold substantial cash reserves given long-term risks.
The document provides an outlook for the year 2016. It begins with a base case that forecasts slow economic growth and low inflation in the US, with the S&P 500 reaching 2214.39. It identifies several "known unknowns" that could impact the outlook, including monetary policy changes, the global economy, the upcoming US election, and geopolitical issues. It then examines the weak US economic recovery in more depth, attributing it to high private sector debt levels. International growth is also constrained by debt and aging populations. China's transition away from its low-cost manufacturing model poses risks if not managed properly.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
- Central bank monetary policies and money flows are impacting macroeconomic conditions around the world. Tightening monetary policy in Europe and the UK has reduced money supply growth. In China, efforts to reduce shadow lending have led to declines in deposit and loan growth. In the US, tighter Fed policy has slowed money supply growth. These monetary trends are slowing economic growth globally and impacting financial markets. Continued tightening by central banks could exacerbate these macroeconomic issues.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
Brexit, G20 and Italian budget key factors this weekHantec Markets
The politics of how the UK is set up to leave the European Union remains a key driver of negative sentiment on financial markets. Add in the slowing global growth trends, the US/China trade dispute and the argument over the Italian budget and there are plenty of reasons to be negative. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities.
Jeremy Grantham provides a brief summary of key points in a short quarterly letter due to travel and client conferences. He notes the dire situation in the Eurozone and feels vindicated in his forecast of a multi-year economic slowdown due to high debt levels and financial incompetence. Additionally, developed nations face permanently slower growth due to aging populations and inadequate savings. The US specifically has declining infrastructure, education, and government effectiveness that threaten competitiveness. Grantham recommends avoiding lower quality US stocks but having a normal weight in global equities overall, tilting toward safety, and being willing to hold substantial cash reserves given long-term risks.
The document provides an outlook for the year 2016. It begins with a base case that forecasts slow economic growth and low inflation in the US, with the S&P 500 reaching 2214.39. It identifies several "known unknowns" that could impact the outlook, including monetary policy changes, the global economy, the upcoming US election, and geopolitical issues. It then examines the weak US economic recovery in more depth, attributing it to high private sector debt levels. International growth is also constrained by debt and aging populations. China's transition away from its low-cost manufacturing model poses risks if not managed properly.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
- Central bank monetary policies and money flows are impacting macroeconomic conditions around the world. Tightening monetary policy in Europe and the UK has reduced money supply growth. In China, efforts to reduce shadow lending have led to declines in deposit and loan growth. In the US, tighter Fed policy has slowed money supply growth. These monetary trends are slowing economic growth globally and impacting financial markets. Continued tightening by central banks could exacerbate these macroeconomic issues.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
Trade talks still dominate sentiment with focus on US GDPHantec Markets
The outcome of the trade negotiations between the US and China will continue to impact on market sentiment this week, but the tier one US data will also be in focus with Advance GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure along with the forward looking PMIs all key. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
The US dollar may be bottoming based on several factors:
1) Valuation measures like the Big Mac Index and OECD measures imply the dollar is undervalued by 30-35%
2) Increases in US oil and gas production from shale could reduce US imports and improve the trade balance by a third
3) A turnaround in US economic confidence and growth could support a rise in the dollar through upward revisions to interest rate expectations
US consumer data to drive forex majors this weekHantec Markets
Has the time of finally been called for US dollar outperformance? We discuss the implications of recent moves impacting on forex markets, equities and commodoties. What is the outlook for the coming days and the key factors to watch?
3 Jan 2009: a bottom in breakevens, commodities, and global yields?Laeeth Isharc
The response of the authorities has been without precedent - the US has a new president, and perhaps confidence in the new administration may stave off the worst consequences of the epidemic contagion of fear - for now, at least. It is certain that for the time being we shall avoid the 29-33 collapse that was associated with every sovereign issuer in Europe except Britain, and much of Latin America and Asia defaulting as well as large numbers of banks in the US (in the days before deposit insurance).
Markets coming to terms with Greek deal this week Hantec Markets
The weekly outlook document provides commentary on the macroeconomic environment and outlook for currencies, indices, and commodities. It summarizes that markets are relieved the Greek crisis is ending but that it highlighted issues in the Eurozone. US data and Janet Yellen's testimony will be key drivers this week. The report also notes that equity markets will watch US bank earnings reports and that commodities will remain sensitive to the US dollar and Chinese factors.
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice presiden...Nigel Mark Dias
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice president & portfolio manager
SUMMARY
Has the Federal Reserve reached the bottom of its policy toolkit? Many things are still possible, at least in theory, including negative interest rates (which we believe would be ineffective and potentially harmful) or a “helicopter drop” of money. Another option is to resurrect a successful plan from 83 years ago: Purchase a tremendous amount of gold at a price substantially higher than market levels.
A massive Fed gold purchase program might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and consumers’ spending habits. It would increase the price of a globally recognized store of value. It almost sounds like a fairy tale – but it’s happened before.
Though it seems incredibly farfetched, a massive Fed gold purchase program could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy.
Warren Buffett famously railed against the shiny yellow metal in 2012 when he noted all the gold in the world could be swapped for the totality of U.S. cropland and seven ExxonMobils with $1 trillion left over for “walking-around money.” His point was that these assets can generate significant returns while owning gold produces no discernable cash flow.
While this observation is certainly true, the rub is that this is not a fair comparison since gold is not an asset; rather, it should be considered an alternate currency. Pundits often describe the five factors that define “money”:
Its supply is controlled or limited,
It is fungible/uniform – this is why diamonds cannot qualify,
It is portable – this is why land cannot qualify,
It is divisible – thus art cannot be money, and
It is liquid – this means people will readily accept it in exchange.
By this definition, gold is certainly a form of money, and to Mr. Buffett’s point, one also earns no cash flow on paper dollars, euros, yen or yuan.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2015, focusing on three defining market features and three major trade opportunities. Regarding the defining features, it argues that deflation is just beginning in Europe and will continue driving European Central Bank policy in 2015. It also notes that competitive policy responses among countries are becoming increasingly confrontational. Finally, it suggests Keynesian views advocating government intervention are gaining prominence over Austrian views in academic debates. The three major trade opportunities discussed are related to European deflation, peripheral European bonds offering optionality, and further monetary easing in Japan under Abenomics.
Trump's Twitter, currency manipulation and the trade dispute are keyHantec Markets
Donald Trump sending out a Twitter storm on currency manipulation and railing against the actions of the Fed have brought in an extra dimension for traders to consider this week. His threats to ratchet up the trade dispute with China also means that geopolitics remain a key factor. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Brexit uncertainties to drive continued sterling volatilityHantec Markets
Brexit remains a key uncertainty for UK assets, whilst the Italian budget is also important in Europe, and developments in the US/China remain crucial for risk appetite. We take a look at the implications that these factors are all having on forex, equities and commodities markets.
1. The stock market indices continued their upward trends last week, with the S&P 500 gaining slightly and the Dow Jones gaining for an 11-day streak. However, volume was lower, suggesting bullish sentiment may be waning.
2. The US dollar fell against other currencies as uncertainty over Trump's policies persisted. The euro rose but faces resistance and the primary trend remains down, so it may retest lower levels. Sterling fell on concerns over a second Scottish independence referendum.
3. Oil has been trading in a tight range but hedge funds have increased bets on higher prices, while US producers hedge against declines. Gold completed a pattern suggesting a rise to $1,300 but needs to contend with resistance
1) The global economy is experiencing slower growth as potential growth rates decline around the world due to factors like aging populations and slowing productivity.
2) Political risks are rising as major countries like the US, Europe, and China hold elections, which could undermine investor risk appetite.
3) Monetary policy alone cannot boost growth significantly and fiscal policy is needed, but the transition to more active fiscal policy carries risks of overheating economies.
4) Developed markets are expected to see slightly faster growth and higher rates in 2017, while the US is likely to pursue an "America First" agenda under a Republican government.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. It discusses recent volatility in the bond markets, particularly the German bund market, and provides Fasanara Capital's medium and long-term views. In the medium term, they expect bund yields to fall further, European government bond spreads to tighten, and European equities to rise. In the long term, they believe deflationary trends will continue in Europe and central banks will need to continue monetary stimulus to prevent economic deterioration, which could eventually lead to a break in the euro currency peg.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
Market fears remain, Brexit in focus stillHantec Markets
As markets have been gripped by increased fear we consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities this week. We also look at the latest developments in Brexit.
Dollar moves still key and a crucial week for Brexit aheadHantec Markets
There seems to have been a tipping point that has been reached for the Federal Reserve now and this could be key for the dollar now. We look at the impact of how Fed monetary policy will now have. This is also a crucial week for the fate of Brexit. What are the implications for forex, commodities and equities.
The document discusses strategies for investing in different asset classes as the global economy transitions out of recession. It finds that:
1) Equity markets typically bottom out around three-quarters of the way through a recession and then rally in the following months, outperforming credit for around six months as the recession ends.
2) Once the recession has ended, credit typically outperforms equities for an average of 21 months as equities underperform.
3) Government bond yields typically continue falling for around two years after a recession ends, providing opportunities to benefit from holding bonds even after the recession.
O documento discute o papel da escola na sociedade da informação e do conhecimento, onde as tecnologias da informação e comunicação são fundamentais para a produção de conhecimento. A escola deve preparar os estudantes para aprender ao longo da vida, estimulando competências para viver em um mundo global e competitivo. Os professores devem guiar os alunos na construção ativa do conhecimento, e não apenas na transmissão de informações.
Kadesh is enjoying learning about different cultural customs from his classmates at the English Language Institute. He notes that his classmates from Thailand bow to the teacher, while his roommate Lia does not wear shoes inside their room. Kadesh finds learning about these various customs from his classmates in Mexico, Thailand, and other places to be a great experience.
Trade talks still dominate sentiment with focus on US GDPHantec Markets
The outcome of the trade negotiations between the US and China will continue to impact on market sentiment this week, but the tier one US data will also be in focus with Advance GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure along with the forward looking PMIs all key. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
The US dollar may be bottoming based on several factors:
1) Valuation measures like the Big Mac Index and OECD measures imply the dollar is undervalued by 30-35%
2) Increases in US oil and gas production from shale could reduce US imports and improve the trade balance by a third
3) A turnaround in US economic confidence and growth could support a rise in the dollar through upward revisions to interest rate expectations
US consumer data to drive forex majors this weekHantec Markets
Has the time of finally been called for US dollar outperformance? We discuss the implications of recent moves impacting on forex markets, equities and commodoties. What is the outlook for the coming days and the key factors to watch?
3 Jan 2009: a bottom in breakevens, commodities, and global yields?Laeeth Isharc
The response of the authorities has been without precedent - the US has a new president, and perhaps confidence in the new administration may stave off the worst consequences of the epidemic contagion of fear - for now, at least. It is certain that for the time being we shall avoid the 29-33 collapse that was associated with every sovereign issuer in Europe except Britain, and much of Latin America and Asia defaulting as well as large numbers of banks in the US (in the days before deposit insurance).
Markets coming to terms with Greek deal this week Hantec Markets
The weekly outlook document provides commentary on the macroeconomic environment and outlook for currencies, indices, and commodities. It summarizes that markets are relieved the Greek crisis is ending but that it highlighted issues in the Eurozone. US data and Janet Yellen's testimony will be key drivers this week. The report also notes that equity markets will watch US bank earnings reports and that commodities will remain sensitive to the US dollar and Chinese factors.
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice presiden...Nigel Mark Dias
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice president & portfolio manager
SUMMARY
Has the Federal Reserve reached the bottom of its policy toolkit? Many things are still possible, at least in theory, including negative interest rates (which we believe would be ineffective and potentially harmful) or a “helicopter drop” of money. Another option is to resurrect a successful plan from 83 years ago: Purchase a tremendous amount of gold at a price substantially higher than market levels.
A massive Fed gold purchase program might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and consumers’ spending habits. It would increase the price of a globally recognized store of value. It almost sounds like a fairy tale – but it’s happened before.
Though it seems incredibly farfetched, a massive Fed gold purchase program could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy.
Warren Buffett famously railed against the shiny yellow metal in 2012 when he noted all the gold in the world could be swapped for the totality of U.S. cropland and seven ExxonMobils with $1 trillion left over for “walking-around money.” His point was that these assets can generate significant returns while owning gold produces no discernable cash flow.
While this observation is certainly true, the rub is that this is not a fair comparison since gold is not an asset; rather, it should be considered an alternate currency. Pundits often describe the five factors that define “money”:
Its supply is controlled or limited,
It is fungible/uniform – this is why diamonds cannot qualify,
It is portable – this is why land cannot qualify,
It is divisible – thus art cannot be money, and
It is liquid – this means people will readily accept it in exchange.
By this definition, gold is certainly a form of money, and to Mr. Buffett’s point, one also earns no cash flow on paper dollars, euros, yen or yuan.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2015, focusing on three defining market features and three major trade opportunities. Regarding the defining features, it argues that deflation is just beginning in Europe and will continue driving European Central Bank policy in 2015. It also notes that competitive policy responses among countries are becoming increasingly confrontational. Finally, it suggests Keynesian views advocating government intervention are gaining prominence over Austrian views in academic debates. The three major trade opportunities discussed are related to European deflation, peripheral European bonds offering optionality, and further monetary easing in Japan under Abenomics.
Trump's Twitter, currency manipulation and the trade dispute are keyHantec Markets
Donald Trump sending out a Twitter storm on currency manipulation and railing against the actions of the Fed have brought in an extra dimension for traders to consider this week. His threats to ratchet up the trade dispute with China also means that geopolitics remain a key factor. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Brexit uncertainties to drive continued sterling volatilityHantec Markets
Brexit remains a key uncertainty for UK assets, whilst the Italian budget is also important in Europe, and developments in the US/China remain crucial for risk appetite. We take a look at the implications that these factors are all having on forex, equities and commodities markets.
1. The stock market indices continued their upward trends last week, with the S&P 500 gaining slightly and the Dow Jones gaining for an 11-day streak. However, volume was lower, suggesting bullish sentiment may be waning.
2. The US dollar fell against other currencies as uncertainty over Trump's policies persisted. The euro rose but faces resistance and the primary trend remains down, so it may retest lower levels. Sterling fell on concerns over a second Scottish independence referendum.
3. Oil has been trading in a tight range but hedge funds have increased bets on higher prices, while US producers hedge against declines. Gold completed a pattern suggesting a rise to $1,300 but needs to contend with resistance
1) The global economy is experiencing slower growth as potential growth rates decline around the world due to factors like aging populations and slowing productivity.
2) Political risks are rising as major countries like the US, Europe, and China hold elections, which could undermine investor risk appetite.
3) Monetary policy alone cannot boost growth significantly and fiscal policy is needed, but the transition to more active fiscal policy carries risks of overheating economies.
4) Developed markets are expected to see slightly faster growth and higher rates in 2017, while the US is likely to pursue an "America First" agenda under a Republican government.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis from Fasanara Capital. It discusses recent volatility in the bond markets, particularly the German bund market, and provides Fasanara Capital's medium and long-term views. In the medium term, they expect bund yields to fall further, European government bond spreads to tighten, and European equities to rise. In the long term, they believe deflationary trends will continue in Europe and central banks will need to continue monetary stimulus to prevent economic deterioration, which could eventually lead to a break in the euro currency peg.
- Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are seen as transitory but could cause market volatility in the near-term. Deflation in Europe is viewed as a more structural issue that will affect markets for the long-term.
- The ECB is expected to take a three step approach - enhancing terms for T-LTROs, finalizing stress tests, and delivering their own version of quantitative easing.
- Three top investment opportunities are seen in European deflation trades benefiting from ECB action, peripheral European equity with upside from an inflated bubble, and Japanese equity benefiting from further stimulus.
Market fears remain, Brexit in focus stillHantec Markets
As markets have been gripped by increased fear we consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities this week. We also look at the latest developments in Brexit.
Dollar moves still key and a crucial week for Brexit aheadHantec Markets
There seems to have been a tipping point that has been reached for the Federal Reserve now and this could be key for the dollar now. We look at the impact of how Fed monetary policy will now have. This is also a crucial week for the fate of Brexit. What are the implications for forex, commodities and equities.
The document discusses strategies for investing in different asset classes as the global economy transitions out of recession. It finds that:
1) Equity markets typically bottom out around three-quarters of the way through a recession and then rally in the following months, outperforming credit for around six months as the recession ends.
2) Once the recession has ended, credit typically outperforms equities for an average of 21 months as equities underperform.
3) Government bond yields typically continue falling for around two years after a recession ends, providing opportunities to benefit from holding bonds even after the recession.
O documento discute o papel da escola na sociedade da informação e do conhecimento, onde as tecnologias da informação e comunicação são fundamentais para a produção de conhecimento. A escola deve preparar os estudantes para aprender ao longo da vida, estimulando competências para viver em um mundo global e competitivo. Os professores devem guiar os alunos na construção ativa do conhecimento, e não apenas na transmissão de informações.
Kadesh is enjoying learning about different cultural customs from his classmates at the English Language Institute. He notes that his classmates from Thailand bow to the teacher, while his roommate Lia does not wear shoes inside their room. Kadesh finds learning about these various customs from his classmates in Mexico, Thailand, and other places to be a great experience.
Документальный фильм посвященный ФК Иртыш, с целью привлечение большего числа болельщиков, пробуждение интереса к спорту и формирование чувства патриотизма
This document discusses future time markers and predictions about future space travel. It begins with a news report about the first airplane traveling into space and an interview with the inventor of the spacecraft. The inventor predicts that in the future, many people will travel by airplane into space and take vacations to other planets, which will not be very expensive. The rest of the document provides instruction on using future time markers like "will" and "won't" to talk about predictions, promises, offers, requests and refusals related to future events and space travel.
Earth stations are systems that transmit and receive signals to and from satellites. They consist of subsystems like transmitters, receivers, antennas, and tracking equipment. Key parameters that affect earth station performance include transmitter power, antenna gain and efficiency, noise temperature, and local weather conditions. The ratio of antenna gain to noise temperature (G/T ratio) is important, as it determines the strength of the received signal relative to thermal noise. Path loss increases significantly with distance between the earth station and satellite due to signal dispersion over the propagation path. Various factors like operating frequency, elevation angle, polarization, and local meteorology can impact propagation impairments.
El documento describe el aprendizaje autónomo, que implica adquirir conocimientos de manera independiente utilizando diversas herramientas. Esto requiere fijar objetivos propios y ser responsable de lo que se quiere aprender, asignando el tiempo y esfuerzo necesarios. El aprendizaje autónomo permite estudiar sin horarios fijos o depender de un aula, sino dedicar el tiempo que cada uno decida a alcanzar sus metas.
The document discusses didactic planning for teaching. It focuses on creating lesson plans that engage students through varied activities and assessments. The goal is to help students develop skills and knowledge through meaningful learning experiences.
Infrastructure for Supporting Computational Social ScienceDerek Hansen
This document discusses the need for infrastructure research to support computational social science. It notes current limitations with relying solely on corporate or third-party tools for data access and analysis. Specifically, these tools are not designed for research needs, duplication of effort is required, APIs are limited and changing, and maintaining third-party tools is challenging. The document proposes a large-scale collaborative solution involving data handling and processing, human-computer interaction, and legal/social considerations to better enable social science research. Collaboration with groups like CASCI and DSST is suggested.
The document discusses the role of social media and internet usage in sparking revolutionary movements in Northern Africa and the Middle East. It notes that internet usage and social media use had been growing rapidly in the region prior to 2011. It then describes how the self-immolation of a Tunisian street vendor, Mohammad Bouazizi, was spread on social media and sparked further copycat protests, ultimately leading to the Tunisian Revolution and ousting of its long-time president. It discusses how social media helped disseminate information about the protests more freely and coordinate action despite attempts by the Tunisian government to censor it.
This document discusses the modeling of questionnaires for technology-enabled care services (TICS). It aims to comprehensively describe the TICS domain to enable the development of suitable computing tools. The modeling represents an improvement over existing tools by introducing standard blocks and elements that can be reused across questionnaires. This includes thematic blocks that group related questions, and a question pool containing reusable questions and thematic typical blocks. The modeling aims to facilitate questionnaire design and allow computerized manipulation of questionnaires.
El documento proporciona una autoevaluación para que el estudiante califique su propio aprendizaje en un curso sobre viajes y turismo. El estudiante debe marcar de 1 a 5 su nivel de satisfacción en cuatro áreas: 1) habilidades aprendidas, 2) uso de la lengua, 3) ayuda de actividades previas, y 4) satisfacción general con su dedicación y mejora.
Football Hearts Internet (And Vice Versa)sdelbecque
The document discusses the relationship between football and the internet. It notes that football, also known as soccer, is enjoyed by 3.5 billion people in 216 countries and watched by hundreds of millions globally on television. Football sites receive significant traffic, with team sites like Manchester United and Barcelona getting hundreds of thousands of daily users. Football has expanded its online presence with blogs, social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, and fantasy football games. The document concludes with an interactive game identifying famous footballers.
El documento presenta los resultados de una encuesta sobre estereotipos y consejos útiles, dividiendo los hallazgos en dos categorías: estereotipos y consejos útiles.
This document outlines a research project on education for sustainable development. The project will analyze cultural and territorial dimensions as factors influencing sustainable development. It will examine educational practices promoting sustainable development in rural, mountain, urban, and other territorial contexts. The multidisciplinary research team will use methods from sociology, geography, education, and other fields to study social representations of sustainable development and related educational practices. The goals are to understand territorial contexts and adaptations of education for sustainable development in different areas and jobs to support socio-ecological transitions.
INFORMATION, INNOVATION AND DEVELOPMENT. WHICH PUBLIC POLICIES FOR LATIN AMER...Susana Finquelievich
This document discusses two innovative areas for information and development: open government and e-citizen science. It analyzes their implementation in Latin America and the Caribbean, noting that while policies promote them, citizens are mainly just data providers rather than full participants. It recommends governments improve consultation, make information more accessible, and establish internationally compatible indicators to better measure outcomes. Promoting thematic conferences, regional coordination, and prioritizing e-citizen science in scientific policies could help engage citizens and communities.
The document appears to be about Joseph McCoy and his contributions to the cattle industry. It mentions Joseph Glidden and an invention related to cattle. The document also discusses cowboy myths versus reality, exploring where false ideas about cowboys originated from.
This document introduces the main characters in the story including Buck the dog, Spitz another dog, Perrault and Francois two men, Hal, Mercedes and Charles three more people, and John Thornton who is played by Ed Owen in the motion picture adaptation.
The document provides a seasonal market outlook and review of global markets in Q4 2014 and for the year as a whole. Key points:
- Global stock markets fell sharply in mid-December due to falling commodity prices but recovered by Christmas. The FTSE 100 ended 2014 down 2.7%.
- Mining stocks and food retailers struggled while utility companies performed well, benefiting from growing demand for income and declining rate expectations.
- Commodity prices are expected to remain weak in 2015 due to slowing demand from Europe and China and increased supply, particularly of oil from US shale production.
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
The document discusses the recent turmoil in global financial markets and argues that governments have failed to address the root causes of the economic crisis. It makes three key points:
1) Stock market declines show that the recovery is fragile and a double-dip recession may be on the horizon.
2) Governments have kicked the can down the road rather than fixing underlying problems, and the global economic landscape now has additional constraints making responses more difficult.
3) The US economy in particular remains weak with high unemployment, stagnant GDP, and a large budget deficit, showing similarities to Japan's "lost decade" raising the risk of prolonged low growth in the US.
The document discusses the growing threat of cyberattacks and why they could cause a global crisis. It notes that over 30 countries have implemented cybersecurity strategies in response. However, the threat is outpacing these initiatives as organizations become more dependent on digital technologies and data. The risks are particularly concerning for critical infrastructure industries like energy, banking, and manufacturing. Companies have significantly increased their cyber insurance coverage in response, with healthcare firms buying 178% more coverage and utilities 98% more on average since 2012. The document concludes that greater data dependence and potential impacts of breaches mean cyberattacks remain one of the top risks for causing a global crisis.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent economic events and the ongoing debt crisis. It summarizes that a last-minute deal avoided a US debt default, but S&P downgraded the US credit rating due to high debt levels. Global markets declined sharply on contagion fears in Europe and recession concerns. The document then analyzes how decades of accumulating consumer and government debt across developed nations has now come to a head, though the economy may stabilize over the long run.
Preparing For The 21st Century Installment IiAnthony Vincent
The document discusses the economic downturn as representing a new global business order rather than a typical cycle. It notes that this recession is the worst since World War II globally and in the US. While the US and European economies remain weak, China and South Korea have rebounded through rapid policy intervention. The rules of the global economy are changing, and businesses must adapt to remain competitive in this "New World Order." The document argues that many countries now desire American standards of living, putting pressure on the US economy.
Ziad Abdelnour, Lebanese American author, trader and financier is President & CEO of Blackhawk Partners, Inc., a “private family office” that backs talented operating executives in growing their companies both organically and through acquisitions and trades physical commodities.
The world economy has twice before enjoyed a super-cycle. It may now be
experiencing its third super-cycle.
To put it in context, it is defined here as, “A period of historically high global growth,
lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment,
urbanisation and technological innovation, characterised by the emergence of large,
new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.”
The first super-cycle took place during the second half of the 19th century, from 1870
until 1913, the eve of the First World War. At that time, the world economy witnessed
a significant step-up in its rate of growth, rising 2.7% on average per annum in
volume, or real, terms. That was a full 1% higher than the average growth rate seen
during the previous half-century. America was the big gainer, moving from the fourthlargest
to the largest economy. The second super-cycle was after the Second World
War until the early 1970s. World growth averaged a huge 5% per annum, again in
real or inflation-adjusted terms. Japan and the Asian tigers saw the biggest gains
over this time. Japan, for instance, moved from 3% to 10% of the world economy.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
The document summarizes the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. It discusses how excess leverage and easy credit led to the crisis. It then describes the massive fiscal and monetary responses by governments to counter the recession. Finally, it outlines a new investment strategy focused on bonds, hedging risks, and adapting to long-term volatility in a more regulated post-crisis economic environment.
1) The document discusses the demographic challenges facing Eastern Europe as a result of rapidly aging populations and declining birth rates.
2) These demographic shifts contributed to the debt crisis by impacting patterns of saving, borrowing, and global capital flows as countries passed through different stages of the demographic transition.
3) Unless policies are implemented to raise fertility rates and extend working lives, population aging will put significant pressure on sovereign debt and public finances, with some estimates showing debt levels rising to over 300% of GDP by 2050 in developed countries.
The document discusses the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and its impact on the current global economic situation. It notes that the Asian crisis involved major economic problems in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. This crisis contributed to an oversupply of US dollars that has impacted the global economy. Foreign investors flooded money into Asian countries without understanding the risks, fueling real estate and stock market bubbles. When the bubbles burst, it led to worldwide economic repercussions still being felt today.
- The document discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets and the fear that has gripped investors. While there are valid economic concerns, fear has become contagious and may be overstating the risks.
- The US economy has held up better than expected so far in 2016, with steady job growth and consumer spending. However, tightening financial conditions have led to declines in stock valuations.
- Central banks are again trying to ease financial conditions through further monetary stimulus in order to support the economy and stabilize markets, though investor faith in their actions may be waning.
AnsA) When financial markets stood on the verge of collapse in th.pdfsutharbharat59
Ans:
A) When financial markets stood on the verge of collapse in the summer of 2008, two of the
worlds most important central banks, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, began
considering unorthodox policy measures. They turned to Quantitative Easing, or QE: injecting
money into the economy by purchasing assets from the private sector, in the hope of boosting
spending and staving off the threat of deflation. These were desperate measures for desperate
times.
With signs of a fragile economic recovery gathering enough momentum to reassure
policymakers in the US, the policy was expected to be wound down. But in a move that caught
commentators off guard, the Fed instead committed to continue with its existing level of asset
purchases. For the foreseeable future, at least, QE is here to stay. What began as a short-term
crisis measure has now become a key component of Anglo-American growth strategies. Its
important, then, to take stock of QE and the central role it has played within the Anglo-American
response to the financial crisis.
The way the Fed led the policy response to the financial crisis is important in two ways. First, it
reflects the extent to which the Anglo-American economies have become financialised: credit-
debt relations are pervasive throughout all facets of contemporary economic activity and there
has been a deepening, extension and deregulation of financial markets commensurate with this
development. In that context, with the increased competitiveness, scale and global integration of
financial markets intensifying the risk of financial instability, the crisis management capacities of
central banks have become increasingly important.
Second, central bank leadership of the policy response also reflects a key feature of neoliberal
political economy in practice. Despite all the rhetoric of free markets, competition and
deregulation that has been the mainstay of neoliberalism, there is a central contradiction at its
heart: neoliberalism has been extremely reliant upon the active interventions of central banks
within supposedly free markets.
The crisis has been warehoused on the expanding balance sheets of central banks, demonstrating
just how much scope for policy manoeuvre there is when governing elites want it. Government
debt and private assets, including toxic mortgage-backed securities, have been indefinitely
transferred onto central bank accounts. This strategy highlights the role of arbitrary accounting
processes, shaped by state institutions, at the heart of supposedly free market economies.
Given this room for manoeuvre, there is no doubt that a much more expansionary fiscal policy
and a progressive taxation system could have been implemented in response to the crisis, but that
response is foreclosed by the ideological confines of the prevailing neoliberal orthodoxy. Instead,
we have monetary expansion and fiscal austerity.
Incubated within the crisis conditions of the 1970s, the neoliberal revolution in the West.
She adores hats. She is always very polite and respectful of others. She waves to everyone, and consistently avoids conflict. She is a lady; she is The Queen.
Without a doubt, Queen Elizabeth lives a life quite unlike everyone else in the World – after all, royalty does have its privileges. Yet, when it comes to investing, the Queen is swimming in the same pool of stock market sharks as us common people.
Like everyone else, she pours through her quarterly statements to see how she’s fared. And like everyone else, she loves to make money and simply deplores negative returns. It was rumored that the 2008 crisis hit her particularly hard – over USD 40 million in stock market losses.
This experience must have jilted something, as when The Queen was visiting the esteemed London School of Economics she asked the professor a rather “un-queen” like question – why did economists fail to predict the biggest global recession since the Great Depression?
We live in an interconnected world and geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Syria are bound to add volatility in global geopolitical environment and influence small and large economies around the world.
Further, the economic environment is undergoing an unusual shift, through unorthodox and new policy making in Japan, US and Europe.
In such a situation small sized GCC economies, which are also dependent heavily on commodity prices and transit of goods, should exercise caution, and not get swayed by the rosy pictures stock markets around the world are painting.
1. d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
F I R S T Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 6
w h i t e p a p e r
c o n t i n u e d o n n e x t p a g e >
BY BILL SPITZ
Director
We Hold These Truths To Be Self Evident-Or Do We?
As I approach one of those milestone birthdays, it is only natural that I have
been reflecting on many aspects of my life including my career. Looking
back on forty one years in the investment business, I am particularly struck
by the fact that many of the world’s economic problems that appeared
insoluble were actually solved, financial principles that seemed fundamental
turned out to be wrong, and trends that were widely thought to be inevitable
reversed. Some of these, while important, are of a technical nature and
therefore of more interest to us financial geeks. But, several are stunning in
the magnitude of their reversal and impact on virtually every person on the
planet. While you may be aware of some of the examples I will discuss, those of a certain age will
find them particularly poignant having experienced the before and after. To lead with the punch line,
the financial world is always subject to change, and each of us should be both humble and flexible.
While it is important for a successful investor to have a point of view, it is very dangerous to be rigid
in your thinking or to accept any principle as absolute. And most important, it is dangerous to take
extreme positions in your portfolio based on a particular view of the world.
2. white paper
T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 5 | 2d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
interest rates.
Until recently, most people in the financial world believed that the lower bound on interest rates
was zero. In other words, there could be no such thing as negative interest rates. Well, take a look
at the following chart:
Wow! Two year government bonds currently have negative yields in eleven major industrialized
countries, and perhaps even more striking, the yield on the ten year Japanese government bond
recently turned negative. Governments have pushed rates into negative territory in order to
stimulate their economies, but the potential success of this strategy is subject to debate, and there
will undoubtedly be secondary and tertiary effects that are difficult if not impossible to forecast.
For example, will negative interest rates dissuade people from saving? Will people take money
out of banks and money market funds in favor of the proverbial mattress? Is the traditional banking
model still viable? Will vendors be forced to penalize customers for paying their bills promptly?
And, how do you value other types of securities in a world of negative interest rates? I don’t know
about you, but I find it very difficult to get my head around these kinds of questions! But, I do know
that something that was thought to be impossible has occurred.
c o n t i n u e d o n n e x t p a g e >
Global 2-Year Government BondYields
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.0%
Sw
itzerland
-0.89%
-0.22%
-0.55%
-0.45% -0.41% -0.44%
-0.39% -0.39% -0.38%
-0.08% -0.03%
0.40%
0.82%
D
enm
ark
Sw
edenG
erm
anyA
ustria
N
etherlandsFinlandB
elgium
France
Italy
Japan
U.K
.
U.S.
3. white paper
T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 5 | 3d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
volatility.
Consider the following titles of articles that were taken from the marketing materials of financial
services companies:
Tips for Surviving a Volatile Economy
Investment Strategies for Volatile Markets
So, is the financial world really more volatile than it was in the “good old days?” First, let’s look
at the US economy as a whole.
This chart depicts the standard deviation or volatility of Gross Domestic Product or GDP from
1946-2015. In other words, it shows how much the economy fluctuates from quarter to quarter.
As you will note, for the last twenty years, it has been much more stable than in prior years. In
fact, it has experienced about one half of the volatility of the immediate post war era. The facts
certainly run counter to the general perception that we live in uncertain economic times. What
about the stock market?
c o n t i n u e d o n n e x t p a g e >
4. white paper
T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 5 | 4d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
This chart shows the trailing five year volatility of the US Stock Market from 1871-2015. The huge
peak represents the Crash of 1929 and Great Depression. Once again, the most recent data
point is at the low end of the historical range, and even the periodic spikes don’t seem outsized
as compared to other periods. Given this data, why are there so many headlines that scream
of volatility? Of course, I don’t know the real answer, but I suspect that volatility and uncertainty
make for better stories than calm and stability.
home prices.
For decades, the centerpiece
of the American Dream was
home ownership, and both
political parties introduced
legislation designed to make it
more affordable and accessible.
While there are indeed many
virtues of owning a home, one of
the primary motivations was the
belief that home prices always
increase. In other words, home
ownership represented a sure-
fire investment. After all, home
c o n t i n u e d o n n e x t p a g e >
5. white paper
T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 5 | 5d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
prices were relatively flat even during the Great Depression. And, you undoubtedly heard
arguments such as, “they aren’t making any more land”, or “the level of immigration ensures
new household formation and continual demand for housing.”
Whoops! As you will note, with the exception of a small wiggle in 1990, house prices did rise
steadily from 1970 until 2007, and the pace actually quickened from the mid 1990’s through the
middle of the first decade of the twenty first century. But, they then proceeded to decline by about
a third. And, even though we have been in an economic recovery since early 2009, we have only
retraced about 60% of the price decline. The purpose of this example is not to disparage home
ownership but to warn against accepting Wall Street platitudes at face value.
Hopefully, you find these three examples of financial misperceptions interesting, but I suspect
that you don’t consider them earthshaking. So, let’s move on to two examples that represent truly
titanic changes in the financial landscape.
inflation.
From 1970-1979, the annual rate of inflation in the United States averaged 7.4%
before maxing out at 8.9% in 1981. To give you a sense of the impact of inflation of
this magnitude, the purchasing power of a dollar declined by 54% during the decade
of the 70’s. Given the expectation of more of the same, investors demanded a yield
in October 1981 of 15.2% to induce them to invest in long term US Treasury Bonds. I
have a clear recollection of that period, and inflation seemed absolutely intractable-
no one could articulate a sensible strategy for getting out of this painful inflationary
spiral and there was a pervasive sense of gloom and doom.
Let’s fast forward to today. Inflation in the US has averaged 1.5% over the past five
years and the actual rate for 2015 was .73%. And, for whatever it is worth, the 30 year
inflation forecast that is currently reflected in the bond market is 1.58%. Long Term
US Treasury Bonds yield 2.1%, and as discussed earlier, shorter term government
c o n t i n u e d o n n e x t p a g e >
6. white paper
T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 5 | 6d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
bond yields are actually negative in a number of countries. The latest reading of
annual inflation rates in selected countries is as follows:
Germany .28%
United Kingdom .23%
France .17%
Japan .19%
Switzerland -1.3%
With the exception of a few troubled economies such as Russia and Brazil, low or
negative inflation is a worldwide phenomenon. The Federal Reserve has indicated that
its target rate of inflation is 2%, but despite zero interest rates for almost a decade and
a number of stimulus programs known as Quantitative Easing, they have been unable
to get there. Think about that-the FED can’t get inflation up to its target! Although the
concerns are very different from those that prevailed in 1981, there is also a sense
of gloom and doom today in some quarters. In particular, there is a fear that low or
non-existent inflation is a result of low growth and unfavorable demographics that
are unlikely to change.
It is hard to overstate the magnitude of this change in circumstances, and only those
who lived through both periods can truly understand the emotional swings that have
been associated with them.
oil.
Given steady growth in worldwide demand for energy, the price of oil is one of
the most important economic variables, and it has been subject to wide swings.
For many decades, the price of oil was fixed at roughly $3 per barrel. Then, from
1973 to June of 1980, the oil cartel (OPEC) was successful in raising the price from
$3.56 to $39.50 per barrel which represented a 41% annual increase. Some of you
undoubtedly remember sitting in long gas lines in 1973-74 and during the Iranian
c o n t i n u e d o n n e x t p a g e >
7. white paper
T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 5 | 7d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
Revolution in 1979. Throughout this period, there was a pervasive
belief that prices would move inexorably upward and the world
would therefore experience pronounced inflation. President Carter
famously described a sense of national malaise due in part to a sense
of powerlessness in the face of OPEC.
From 1980 to 2001, the price drifted slowly downward from $39.50 to
$19.33, albeit with a good deal of volatility. Then, from December of
2001 through June of 2008, we experienced a second major oil shock
as the price rose from $19.33 to $133.93. Once again, there was a
sense of gloom that was associated with the concept of “Peak Oil.”
A number of respected analysts argued that worldwide production
of oil had peaked and would steadily decline leading once again to
steadily rising prices and inflation.
Well, technology came to the rescue with techniques such as fracking
which resulted in an increase in US oil production from 5 million to
over 9 million barrels per day. At the same time, global economic
growth has been slow resulting in moderate increases in demand,
and both OPEC and non-cartel producers continue to pump at peak
levels. As a result, the price has fallen from $134 to around $33 per
barrel. And, not surprisingly, there are bold headlines that predict
that the price may fall as low as $5. Interestingly, the prevailing mood
does not seem to be one of unrestrained glee, but concern about the
impact of low oil prices on corporate profits, energy sector lenders,
and so on.
Once again, the change in circumstances is stunning as those of us
who experienced shortages are now reading that there is not enough
storage capacity to absorb the excess supply of oil. And, some will
Important Notes And
Disclosures
This White Paper is being made available for
educational purposes only and should not be used
for any other purpose. Certain information contained
herein concerning economic trends and performance
is based on or derived from information provided
by independent third-party sources. Diversified Trust
Company, Inc. believes that the sources from which
such information has been obtained are reliable;
however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such
information and has not independently verified the
accuracy or completeness of such information or the
assumptions on which such information is based.
Opinions expressed in these materials are current
only as of the date appearing herein and are subject
to change without notice. The information herein is
presented for illustration and discussion purposes
only and is not intended to be, nor should it be
construed as, investment advice or an offer to sell, or
a solicitation of an offer to buy securities of any type
of description. Nothing in these materials is intended
to be tax or legal advice, and clients are urged to
consult with their own legal advisors in this regard.
c o n t i n u e d o n n e x t p a g e >
8. white paper
T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 5 | 8d i v e r s i f i e d t r u s t . c o m
surely gloat over the fact that some OPEC members are likely to
have severe budgetary issues as a result of declining oil revenues.
In 1973, I never could have imagined this reversal in fortunes.
looking ahead.
Suppose I were to write a paper on this topic in five years. What
common perceptions might have been proven wrong? Of course,
one can’t really know. But here are a couple of tag lines that I hear
frequently:
• “Interest rates have to return to more normal levels.”
• “High corporate profit margins will regress to the mean.”
• “Slow economic growth is bound to continue due to slow
population and productivity growth.”
• “Oil prices will inevitably return to $60 a barrel.”
Stay tuned-we will see!
conclusion.
There are many lessons to be learned from this sort of reflection and
introspection. Don’t blindly accept the prevailing wisdom or succumb to
pervasive concerns. Be humble in your assessment of your ability (or anyone
else’s) to sort through complex issues and determine their ultimate implications.
Be flexible in your thinking and willing to change. And, don’t underestimate
the ability of technology and ingenuity to solve major problems. ■
400 Galleria Parkway, Suite 1400
Atlanta, GA 30339
Phone: 770.226.5333
■
300 N Greene Street, Suite 2150
Greensboro, NC 27401
Phone: 336.217.0151
■
6075 Poplar Avenue, Suite 900
Memphis, TN 38119
Phone: 901.761.7979
■
3102 West End Avenue, Suite 600
Nashville, TN 37203
Phone: 615.386.7302
MEMPHIS
NASHVILLE
ATLANTA
GREENSBORO