The document discusses how many widely held beliefs in economics and finance have been proven wrong over time. It provides examples of interest rates becoming negative, inflation being much lower than expected, and the price of oil fluctuating dramatically instead of steadily increasing. The author argues that one should be humble and flexible in their views instead of rigidly holding positions, as the financial world is always changing in ways that may contradict current assumptions. Staying open-minded and avoiding extreme portfolio positions based on specific worldviews can help investors adapt to changes.

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F I R S T Q U A R T E R 2 0 1 6
w h i t e p a p e r
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BY BILL SPITZ
Director
We Hold These Truths To Be Self Evident-Or Do We?
As I approach one of those milestone birthdays, it is only natural that I have
been reflecting on many aspects of my life including my career. Looking
back on forty one years in the investment business, I am particularly struck
by the fact that many of the world’s economic problems that appeared
insoluble were actually solved, financial principles that seemed fundamental
turned out to be wrong, and trends that were widely thought to be inevitable
reversed. Some of these, while important, are of a technical nature and
therefore of more interest to us financial geeks. But, several are stunning in
the magnitude of their reversal and impact on virtually every person on the
planet. While you may be aware of some of the examples I will discuss, those of a certain age will
find them particularly poignant having experienced the before and after. To lead with the punch line,
the financial world is always subject to change, and each of us should be both humble and flexible.
While it is important for a successful investor to have a point of view, it is very dangerous to be rigid
in your thinking or to accept any principle as absolute. And most important, it is dangerous to take
extreme positions in your portfolio based on a particular view of the world.

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interest rates.
Until recently, most people in the financial world believed that the lower bound on interest rates
was zero. In other words, there could be no such thing as negative interest rates. Well, take a look
at the following chart:
Wow! Two year government bonds currently have negative yields in eleven major industrialized
countries, and perhaps even more striking, the yield on the ten year Japanese government bond
recently turned negative. Governments have pushed rates into negative territory in order to
stimulate their economies, but the potential success of this strategy is subject to debate, and there
will undoubtedly be secondary and tertiary effects that are difficult if not impossible to forecast.
For example, will negative interest rates dissuade people from saving? Will people take money
out of banks and money market funds in favor of the proverbial mattress? Is the traditional banking
model still viable? Will vendors be forced to penalize customers for paying their bills promptly?
And, how do you value other types of securities in a world of negative interest rates? I don’t know
about you, but I find it very difficult to get my head around these kinds of questions! But, I do know
that something that was thought to be impossible has occurred.
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Global 2-Year Government BondYields
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.8%
-1.0%
Sw
itzerland
-0.89%
-0.22%
-0.55%
-0.45% -0.41% -0.44%
-0.39% -0.39% -0.38%
-0.08% -0.03%
0.40%
0.82%
D
enm
ark
Sw
edenG
erm
anyA
ustria
N
etherlandsFinlandB
elgium
France
Italy
Japan
U.K
.
U.S.

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volatility.
Consider the following titles of articles that were taken from the marketing materials of financial
services companies:
Tips for Surviving a Volatile Economy
Investment Strategies for Volatile Markets
So, is the financial world really more volatile than it was in the “good old days?” First, let’s look
at the US economy as a whole.
This chart depicts the standard deviation or volatility of Gross Domestic Product or GDP from
1946-2015. In other words, it shows how much the economy fluctuates from quarter to quarter.
As you will note, for the last twenty years, it has been much more stable than in prior years. In
fact, it has experienced about one half of the volatility of the immediate post war era. The facts
certainly run counter to the general perception that we live in uncertain economic times. What
about the stock market?
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This chart shows the trailing five year volatility of the US Stock Market from 1871-2015. The huge
peak represents the Crash of 1929 and Great Depression. Once again, the most recent data
point is at the low end of the historical range, and even the periodic spikes don’t seem outsized
as compared to other periods. Given this data, why are there so many headlines that scream
of volatility? Of course, I don’t know the real answer, but I suspect that volatility and uncertainty
make for better stories than calm and stability.
home prices.
For decades, the centerpiece
of the American Dream was
home ownership, and both
political parties introduced
legislation designed to make it
more affordable and accessible.
While there are indeed many
virtues of owning a home, one of
the primary motivations was the
belief that home prices always
increase. In other words, home
ownership represented a sure-
fire investment. After all, home
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prices were relatively flat even during the Great Depression. And, you undoubtedly heard
arguments such as, “they aren’t making any more land”, or “the level of immigration ensures
new household formation and continual demand for housing.”
Whoops! As you will note, with the exception of a small wiggle in 1990, house prices did rise
steadily from 1970 until 2007, and the pace actually quickened from the mid 1990’s through the
middle of the first decade of the twenty first century. But, they then proceeded to decline by about
a third. And, even though we have been in an economic recovery since early 2009, we have only
retraced about 60% of the price decline. The purpose of this example is not to disparage home
ownership but to warn against accepting Wall Street platitudes at face value.
Hopefully, you find these three examples of financial misperceptions interesting, but I suspect
that you don’t consider them earthshaking. So, let’s move on to two examples that represent truly
titanic changes in the financial landscape.
inflation.
From 1970-1979, the annual rate of inflation in the United States averaged 7.4%
before maxing out at 8.9% in 1981. To give you a sense of the impact of inflation of
this magnitude, the purchasing power of a dollar declined by 54% during the decade
of the 70’s. Given the expectation of more of the same, investors demanded a yield
in October 1981 of 15.2% to induce them to invest in long term US Treasury Bonds. I
have a clear recollection of that period, and inflation seemed absolutely intractable-
no one could articulate a sensible strategy for getting out of this painful inflationary
spiral and there was a pervasive sense of gloom and doom.
Let’s fast forward to today. Inflation in the US has averaged 1.5% over the past five
years and the actual rate for 2015 was .73%. And, for whatever it is worth, the 30 year
inflation forecast that is currently reflected in the bond market is 1.58%. Long Term
US Treasury Bonds yield 2.1%, and as discussed earlier, shorter term government
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bond yields are actually negative in a number of countries. The latest reading of
annual inflation rates in selected countries is as follows:
Germany .28%
United Kingdom .23%
France .17%
Japan .19%
Switzerland -1.3%
With the exception of a few troubled economies such as Russia and Brazil, low or
negative inflation is a worldwide phenomenon. The Federal Reserve has indicated that
its target rate of inflation is 2%, but despite zero interest rates for almost a decade and
a number of stimulus programs known as Quantitative Easing, they have been unable
to get there. Think about that-the FED can’t get inflation up to its target! Although the
concerns are very different from those that prevailed in 1981, there is also a sense
of gloom and doom today in some quarters. In particular, there is a fear that low or
non-existent inflation is a result of low growth and unfavorable demographics that
are unlikely to change.
It is hard to overstate the magnitude of this change in circumstances, and only those
who lived through both periods can truly understand the emotional swings that have
been associated with them.
oil.
Given steady growth in worldwide demand for energy, the price of oil is one of
the most important economic variables, and it has been subject to wide swings.
For many decades, the price of oil was fixed at roughly $3 per barrel. Then, from
1973 to June of 1980, the oil cartel (OPEC) was successful in raising the price from
$3.56 to $39.50 per barrel which represented a 41% annual increase. Some of you
undoubtedly remember sitting in long gas lines in 1973-74 and during the Iranian
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Revolution in 1979. Throughout this period, there was a pervasive
belief that prices would move inexorably upward and the world
would therefore experience pronounced inflation. President Carter
famously described a sense of national malaise due in part to a sense
of powerlessness in the face of OPEC.
From 1980 to 2001, the price drifted slowly downward from $39.50 to
$19.33, albeit with a good deal of volatility. Then, from December of
2001 through June of 2008, we experienced a second major oil shock
as the price rose from $19.33 to $133.93. Once again, there was a
sense of gloom that was associated with the concept of “Peak Oil.”
A number of respected analysts argued that worldwide production
of oil had peaked and would steadily decline leading once again to
steadily rising prices and inflation.
Well, technology came to the rescue with techniques such as fracking
which resulted in an increase in US oil production from 5 million to
over 9 million barrels per day. At the same time, global economic
growth has been slow resulting in moderate increases in demand,
and both OPEC and non-cartel producers continue to pump at peak
levels. As a result, the price has fallen from $134 to around $33 per
barrel. And, not surprisingly, there are bold headlines that predict
that the price may fall as low as $5. Interestingly, the prevailing mood
does not seem to be one of unrestrained glee, but concern about the
impact of low oil prices on corporate profits, energy sector lenders,
and so on.
Once again, the change in circumstances is stunning as those of us
who experienced shortages are now reading that there is not enough
storage capacity to absorb the excess supply of oil. And, some will
Important Notes And
Disclosures
This White Paper is being made available for
educational purposes only and should not be used
for any other purpose. Certain information contained
herein concerning economic trends and performance
is based on or derived from information provided
by independent third-party sources. Diversified Trust
Company, Inc. believes that the sources from which
such information has been obtained are reliable;
however, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of such
information and has not independently verified the
accuracy or completeness of such information or the
assumptions on which such information is based.
Opinions expressed in these materials are current
only as of the date appearing herein and are subject
to change without notice. The information herein is
presented for illustration and discussion purposes
only and is not intended to be, nor should it be
construed as, investment advice or an offer to sell, or
a solicitation of an offer to buy securities of any type
of description. Nothing in these materials is intended
to be tax or legal advice, and clients are urged to
consult with their own legal advisors in this regard.
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surely gloat over the fact that some OPEC members are likely to
have severe budgetary issues as a result of declining oil revenues.
In 1973, I never could have imagined this reversal in fortunes.
looking ahead.
Suppose I were to write a paper on this topic in five years. What
common perceptions might have been proven wrong? Of course,
one can’t really know. But here are a couple of tag lines that I hear
frequently:
• “Interest rates have to return to more normal levels.”
• “High corporate profit margins will regress to the mean.”
• “Slow economic growth is bound to continue due to slow
population and productivity growth.”
• “Oil prices will inevitably return to $60 a barrel.”
Stay tuned-we will see!
conclusion.
There are many lessons to be learned from this sort of reflection and
introspection. Don’t blindly accept the prevailing wisdom or succumb to
pervasive concerns. Be humble in your assessment of your ability (or anyone
else’s) to sort through complex issues and determine their ultimate implications.
Be flexible in your thinking and willing to change. And, don’t underestimate
the ability of technology and ingenuity to solve major problems. ■
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