Keynote Presentation at the Inaugural Swiss Chapter Meeting in Basel, Switzerland. For supply chain professionals and Demand Planners, tips on forecasting in this current challenging economy.

1. IBF - INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS FORECASTING & PLANNING Chapter Meeting IBF Switzerland Basel, March 31st 2009

3. An Example: Four Forecast Timelines for one Product vs. Actuals What happened: The business has started to decline from M1 creating an increase in forecast inaccuracy. In M8 forecast accuracy increases again. Timing of Understanding: In M8 it is understood that the retraction in demand is not a temporarily one and that the production need to cope with significant lower capacity utilization. Action Reaction

4. What Would be the Costs of “Wrong” Forecasting ? Assumption: Potential Monthly Cost Savings by e.g. Reducing 2 Shift Production to 1 Shift: 100.000 EUR Conclusion: Company 2 would pay more than Company 1 due to „wrong“ forecasting = 4 x 100 K EUR. Action Reaction Company 1 Reaction Company 2

6. Example 2: What would be the Opportunity Costs for „Wrong“ Forecasting ? Action Reaction Company 1 Reaction Company 2 Conclusion: Company 1 would have better chances to re-gain market share and secure long term competitiveness