3. Introduction The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies at influencing national income differ dramatically under fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. Do flexible exchange rate systems make countries more vulnerable to external shocks such as the recent global recession?
4. The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates Under a flexible exchange rate system Combinations of income and interest rates not on the BP curve will cause disequilibrium in foreign exchange markets Forcing an adjustment in the exchange rate. This will cause the BP curve to shift.
5. The Effects of a Currency Depreciation on the BP Curve i BP0 BP1 A depreciation expands exports and contracts imports. For any given level of Y, a lower i is required to balance the BOP. Y
6. The Effects of a Currency Appreciation on the BP Curve i BP1 BP0 An appreciation contracts exports and expands imports. For any given level of Y, a higher i is required to balance the BOP. Y
7. Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital immobility Fiscal stimulus increases Y and i. This creates an incipient BOP deficit, causing a depreciation and a rightward shift of the BP curve.
8. Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates BP0 BP1 LM i Perfect capital immobility i0 IS IS' Y0 Y2 income
9. Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital immobility Fiscal stimulus increases Y and i. This creates an incipient BOP deficit, causing a depreciation and a rightward shift of the BP curve. The depreciation increases exports, decreases imports, and shifts IS even farther rightwards. This continues until IS, LM, and BP intersect at a common point.
10. Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates BP0 BP1 LM i Perfect capital immobility i3 i0 IS '' IS IS' Y0 Y2 income
11. Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital immobility Fiscal stimulus increases Y and i. This creates an incipient BOP surplus, causing an appreciation of the currency. The appreciation decreases exports, increases imports, and shifts IS back to the left.
12. Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates LM i Perfect capital mobility BP iE IS' IS Y0 income
13. Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates The bottom line: When capital is relatively immobile Fiscal policy is more effective at increasing national income. When capital is relatively mobile Fiscal policy is less effective at increasing national income. Between these two extremes, the effect on the exchange rate depends on the relative slopes of LM and BP. BP steeper than LM: depreciation LM steeper than BP: appreciation
14. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital immobility Monetary stimulus increases Y, and the increase in imports causes an incipient BOP deficit to emerge.
15. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates LM LM' BP i Perfect capital immobility E i0 IS Y0 income
16. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital immobility Monetary stimulus increases Y, and the increase in imports causes an incipient BOP deficit to emerge. As currency depreciates, BP shifts rightward.
17. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates LM LM' BP BP' i Perfect capital immobility E i0 IS Y0 income
18. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital immobility Monetary stimulus increases Y, and the increase in imports causes an incipient BOP deficit to emerge. As currency depreciates, BP shifts rightward. Depreciation also shifts IS rightwards.
19. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates LM LM' BP BP' i Perfect capital immobility i2 E i0 IS' IS Y0 Y2 income
20. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital mobility Monetary stimulus increases Y. This generates a large capital outflow and a depreciation of the home currency.
21. Monetary Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates LM i LM' Perfect capital mobility BP iE IS Y0 income
22. Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates With perfect capital mobility Monetary stimulus increases Y. This generates a large capital outflow and a depreciation of the home currency. The depreciation causes LM to shift outwards.
23. Monetary Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates LM i LM' Perfect capital mobility BP iE IS' IS Y0 Y2 income
24. Monetary Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates The bottom line: When capital is relatively immobile Monetary policy is effective at increasing national income. When capital is relatively mobile Monetary policy is particularly effective at increasing national income.
25. Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates Coordination of fiscal and monetary policy may make the attainment of other targets besides income possible. Examples of alternative targets include Interest rates Exchange rates. Consider an income and interest rate target of Y* and i*as an example.
26. Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates If fiscal policy alone is used to reach Y* It is likely that the interest rate will overshoot the target of i*.
28. Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates If fiscal policy alone is used to reach Y* It is likely that the interest rate will overshoot the target of i*. In addition, the fiscal policy creates an incipient BOP surplus Appreciating the currency Shifting BP back to the left.
30. Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates If fiscal policy alone is used to reach Y* It is likely that the interest rate will overshoot the target of i*. In addition, the fiscal policy creates an incipient BOP surplus Appreciating the currency Shifting BP back to the left. The depreciation also shifts IS part of the way back to the left. In the end, neither target is reached.
32. Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates If monetary policy alone is used to reach Y* Increase in Ms will cause a currency depreciation Rightward shift in BP.
34. Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates If monetary policy alone is used to reach Y* Increase in Ms will cause a currency depreciation Rightward shift in BP. In addition, the monetary policy shifts IS rightwards. In the end, neither target is reached.
36. Policy Coordination Under Flexible Exchange Rates If monetary and fiscal policies are used, both i* and Y* can be attained. Expansionary fiscal policy allows Y to increase without the expenditure switching effects.
38. Effects of Shocks in the IS/LM/BP Model (Imperfect K-Mobility) So far, we’ve examined the effects of fiscal and monetary policy holding a number of factors constant, including domestic and foreign prices, foreign interest rate, and expected exchange rate changes. How are changes in such variables (“shocks”) transmitted through the economy?
39. Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Price Shock If the foreign price level were to increase, the home economy would expand due to increases in exports and decreases in imports (IS shifts right). The BP also shifts right due to expenditure switching effects of higher foreign prices.
41. Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Price Shock If the foreign price level were to increase, the home economy would expand due to increases in exports and decreases in imports (IS shifts right). The BP also shifts right due to expenditure switching effects of higher foreign prices. Both effects cause i to rise, and the currency to appreciate.
43. Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Price Shock If the foreign price level were to increase, the home economy would expand due to increases in exports and decreases in imports (IS shifts right). The BP also shifts right due to expenditure switching effects of higher foreign prices. Both effects cause i to rise, and the currency to appreciate. These shift IS and BP back to where they started.
47. Effects of Shocks: A Domestic Price Shock If the domestic price level were to increase, the real money supply would fall, shifting LM leftwards. Exports will fall and imports rise, so IS shifts leftwards.
49. Effects of Shocks: A Domestic Price Shock If the domestic price level were to increase, the real money supply would fall, shifting LM leftwards. Exports will fall and imports rise, so IS shifts leftwards. The BP curve will also shift left in order to bring the BOP back into equilibrium.
51. Effects of Shocks: A Foreign Interest Rate Shock If the foreign interest rate were to increase, the home country should experience an outflow of short-term capita BP shifts leftwards. The home currency depreciates. This shifts the IS curve rightward, and the BP curve back toward the right.
