Household energy, water vulnerability in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan: What we have learned?


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UNDP Presentation - Third Inter-Agency Conference on Regional Coordination and Compound Risks in Central Asia, 14 April 2011,
Ben Slay, Senior economist,

UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS

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Household energy, water vulnerability in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan: What we have learned?

  1. 1. Household energy, water vulnerability in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan: What have we learned?<br />Ben Slay<br />Senior economist<br />UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS<br />Third Inter-Agency Conference on Regional Coordination and Compound Risks in Central Asia<br />14 April 2011<br />
  2. 2. Presentation overview<br />Focus on Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan<br />Two key questions:<br />“After the winter”: Is the glass half full, or half empty?<br />“Perfect storm”?<br />“Gradual improvement”?<br />Role of donors/international community?<br />“Policy advising feast versus implementation capacity famine”?<br />Focusing on what works, scaling up<br />Provide some answers from:<br />Yesterday’s preliminary event<br />New research results <br />Possible future directions<br />
  3. 3. From “slow onset crisis” to . . .<br />“Perfect storm”?<br />Weak economies<br />Poor infrastructure<br />Poor energy, communal, public service delivery<br />Resistance to higher tariffs<br />Ineffective social protection<br />Corruption  governance issues<br />Socio-political crisis (Kyrgyzstan 2010)<br />Or signs of hope?<br />We survived the winter: because it was mild?<br />
  4. 4. Energy consumption: Some improvement in 2010<br />Kyrgyzstan (2007 = 100)<br />Sources: State statistical agencies, UNDP calculations.<br />
  5. 5. Household energy, communal services inflation rates: High, but falling<br />Tajikistan: Annual average inflation rates.<br />Kyrgyzstan: Annual average inflation rates.<br />
  6. 6. Other signs of hope<br />Kyrgyzstan:<br />Big improvements in water levels in Toktogul HPP<br />Collection rates in electricity sector have improved<br />Fuel and Energy Sector Transparency Initiative<br />Better energy sector regulation, corporate governance<br />Civic engagement<br />Tajikistan:<br />New generation capacity (Sangtuda 1)<br />New transmission capacity (South-North high tension line)<br />
  7. 7. Poverty and household access to energy: New data and data issues<br />New official household survey data are available for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan<br />UNDP poverty and social impact assessments<br />On energy, communal service sectors in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan<br />Available on conference website<br />But:<br />Survey data do not always correspond to production and sales data provided by energy companies<br />Survey data on household expenditures do not always agree with national income accounting data on consumption expenditure<br />Survey data not always internally consistent<br />Major survey data gaps on household access to communal services remain<br />
  8. 8. 8<br />Link between grid connections, electricity supplies is broken in Tajikistan . . .<br />Average monthly household electricity consumption (kWh)<br />Share of households using electricity<br />Source: State Statistical Agency<br />
  9. 9. . . . And in Kyrgyzstan<br />Shares of households reporting electricity cut-offs<br />
  10. 10. 10<br />Affordability: How much household spending on energy is too much?<br />
  11. 11. Kyrgyzstan: Share of energy in household spending seems low . . .<br />What revolution??<br />
  12. 12. 12<br />. . . While in Tajikistan, it seems very (too) high?<br />Share of household expenditures devoted to energy, 2009 data. Source: State Statistical Agency. <br />
  13. 13. What do people heat with? In Kyrgyzstan—electricity and coal (especially the poor)<br />Shares of household energy spending on energy sources (2009)<br />Source: National Statistical Committee<br />
  14. 14. 14<br />In Tajikistan: Much greater reliance on firewood (and dung) <br />Source: State Statistical Agency<br />
  15. 15. Energy, water, and social policy<br />Two key questions:<br />Can social policy mitigate household energy and water insecurities?<br />Is social policy become better targeted?<br />Answers: No, and no<br />Household energy insecurity can be reduced by:<br />Off-grid small hydro, other decentralized renewables<br />Energy efficiency<br />Household water insecurity can be reduced by:<br />Reforms of communal services, local governance<br />Rural water, infrastructure projects financed by central, local government budgets, donors <br />
  16. 16. What is to be done? Two key questions for the international community<br />What does this research tell us?<br />“Policy advising feast with an implementation capacity famine?” or “Let’s identify what works and scale it up”?<br />
  17. 17. What does this research tell us?<br />Evidentiary basis for understanding household energy vulnerability much better . . .<br />. . . But there are still many open questions:<br />Are the shares of household expenditures devoted to energy correct?<br />Support for national statistical offices?<br />Independent surveys, based on comparable methodologies?<br />Willingness to pay?<br />What are the implications of different composition of energy use?<br />Tajikistan: sustainable forestry?<br />Kyrgyzstan: social, environmental implications of coal?<br />
  18. 18. Emerging lessons from Tajikistan’s experience with small hydro <br />Key obstacles:<br />Low electricity tariffs<br />Weak national capacity for construction, maintenance of small hydro facilities<br />Regulatory/legal lacunae<br />Why should Barqi Tojik buy expensive, risky electricity from small hydropower plants?<br />But—progress has been made:<br />Legal framework for feed-in-tariffs now in place<br />Trust fund for renewable energy can play “market maker role”<br />
  19. 19. Thank you very much!<br />Бoльшoe<br />Cпacибo!<br />