Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan [Martin Mergili]

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Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan. Presented by Martin Mergili at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

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Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan [Martin Mergili]

  1. 1. IAG Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Martin Mergili Chris Kopf, Jean F. Schneider Institute of Applied Geology, BOKU University, Vienna, AustriaGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010
  2. 2. IAG Content Content of the presentation > 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan > 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends > 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards > 4 Conclusions > 5 Risk mitigation strategiesGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 2
  3. 3. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan Glaciers of Central Asia Pamir Dataset Description Source WGI World Glacier Inventory point dataset, one observation NSIDC Boulder, WGMS Zurich location, surface area, topography nsidc.org/data/glacier_inventory/ GLIMS Global Land Ice polygon and point datasets NSIDC Boulder, Univ. of Arizona Measurements from Space geometric information www.glims.orgGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 3
  4. 4. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan Academy of Sciences Range Korzhenevskaya Peak 7105 m Ismoili Somoni Peak 7495 mGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 4
  5. 5. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan Fedchenko GlacierGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 5
  6. 6. IAG 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan JirgitalGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 6
  7. 7. IAG 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends Precipitation and dischargeGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 7
  8. 8. IAG Observed and predicted climatic trendsGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 8
  9. 9. IAG 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends Example of temperature trendGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 9
  10. 10. IAG 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends Climate projections > Mean annual temperature +1.8 – 2.9°C until 2050 for Tajikistan (National Action Plan for Climate Change Mitigation) > Mean annual temperature +3.7°C until 2100 for Central Asia (4th IPCC Report 2007) > More pronounced warming in high-altitude areas (4th IPCC Report 2007) > High uncertainties and regional differences in the predicted trends of precipitation, but in general increase in winter and decrease in the remaining seasons (4th IPCC Report 2007)Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 10
  11. 11. IAG Glacier fluctuations and related hazardsGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 11
  12. 12. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Glacier mass balancesGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 12
  13. 13. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Case study: Southern PamirGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 13
  14. 14. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Glacial lakes in the S. PamirGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 14
  15. 15. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards DashtdaraGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 15
  16. 16. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Lake outburst floodsGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 16
  17. 17. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards The Dasht event (2002) beforeGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 17
  18. 18. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards The Dasht event (2002) afterGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 18
  19. 19. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Varshedzdara and AndarabadjGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 19
  20. 20. IAG 6 Needs for further research Hazard indication map Outburst hazard Extremely high Very high High Medium Moderate Low Negligible 0 20 40 60 80 Number of lakesGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 20
  21. 21. IAG 6 Needs for further research Hazard indication mapGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 21
  22. 22. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Case study: Northern PamirGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 22
  23. 23. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Transalai RangeGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 23
  24. 24. IAG 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards Transalai Range Dzerzhinskogo Glacier Little Saukdara Glacier 2002 2007Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 24
  25. 25. IAG 4 Conclusions Essentials > The response of glacial environments to climate change may be diverse > Environmental changes may occur rapidly and have significant consequences for the population > There is lack of knowledge on high-altitude meteorological conditions and trends > Consequently, the knowledge on the high mountain environment of Tajikistan is insufficient > But: people depend on this environmentGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 25
  26. 26. IAG 6 Conclusions Needs for further research > (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and hydrological stationsGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 26
  27. 27. IAG 4 Conclusions Needs for further research > (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and hydrological stations > Coordinated efforts of consistent multi-temporal mapping of glaciers from satellite imagery, based on the existing datasets > Focussed in-depth research regarding ice volumes, mass balances, permafrost, glacial lakes etc. > Continuous monitoring of hazardous and potentially hazardous situations in order to react adequately in caseGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 27
  28. 28. IAG 5 Risk mitigation strategies From research to mitigation Awareness-raising Preparedness-building Hazard and Risk Assessment Risk Recommendations Mitigation Monitoring Emergency warning Technical measures Involvement of local agencies and populationGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 28
  29. 29. IAG 5 Risk mitigation strategies Capacity-building is essential!Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 29
  30. 30. IAG 5 Risk mitigation strategies Handing over ResponsibilityGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 30
  31. 31. IAG DiscussionGlacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 31

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