This document provides guidance on how to create high-level estimates for a project before it is approved. It recommends holding one hour meetings with representatives from key areas to identify epics, determine sizes, certainty levels, and associate estimated costs with buffers. Epics are then sized as extra small, small, medium, large, or extra large. Certainty levels range from 50% to 95% with corresponding buffers. Estimated days are assigned for each size. Costs are calculated based on rates and estimated days with and without buffers. The document stresses that too much estimating time yields diminishing returns and historical data can help standardize estimates over time.

1. Tami Flowers
May 3, 2013

2. Estimating before a project is approved.
Information for executives, managers or
clients about how much a project will cost
and how long it might take.
High level estimate with a buffer range.
Should not spend a lot of time on this; a
few one hour meetings is sufficient.
Good way to show costs for different
options such as build vs. buy and
integrate.

3. Feasibility Initiation
Release
Planning
Iterate Close Out
Establish
business case
with high level
estimates

4. 1. Identify epics
2. Determine size
3. Determine certainty
4. Associate cost

5. Epic
Feature
User Story
Task
An epic is a group of related stories, mainly used in product roadmaps and
the backlog for features that have not yet been analyzed enough to break
down into component stories.

6. 1. Identify inputs
• These may be integrations from internal or
external systems
2. Identify outputs
• These may be integrations from internal or
external systems
3. Identify high level functionality
4. Identify reports (at minimum get a general
feel for how many)

7. On-line banking application
• View balances for accounts
• View transactions per account
• Transfer funds between accounts
• Setup bill payer accounts
• Pay bills
• Display monthly statement
• Create reports to show usage of on-line products

8. On-line
Banking
App
Valid User
Balances &
Transactions
Bill Payer
Accounts
• View balances for
accounts
• View transactions
per account
• Setup bill payer
accounts

9. User
Transfers
Bill Pay
Transactions
On-line
Banking
App
• Transfer funds
between
accounts
• Pay bills

10. • Login page(s)
• View balances page
• View transactions page
• Setup bill payer accounts pages
• Transfer funds pages
• …

11. Monthly
Statement
Usage
Reports
Other reports
App
• View and print
monthly
statement
• Create reports to
show usage of
on-line products

12.  On-line banking application
• Pages to handle login, password change, token entry
• Page to view balances for accounts
• Page to view transactions per account
• Pages to transfer funds between accounts
• Pages to setup bill payer accounts
• Pages to pay bills
• Integrate with 3rd party application that handles bill payer
• Integrate with core banking application for balances and
transactions
• Display monthly statement
• Create monthly statement report
• Create reports to show usage of on-line products
• …

13. 1. Identify epics
2. Determine size
3. Determine certainty
4. Associate cost

14. How big or complex? – t-shirt sizing
Use relative sizing
Size
XSmall
Small
Medium
Large
XLarge

15. 1. Identify epics
2. Determine size
3. Determine certainty
4. Associate cost

16. Certainty – how certain are you about the
complexity/size?
Certainty Certainty Buffer
95% 15%
90% 30%
80% 50%
70% 100%
50% 200%

17. • Get a group together with a representative from each area of concern.
These may not be the people who end up on the project team.
• Estimate inputs, outputs, functionality and reports
• Estimate each epic per area of concern:
 Development, Business Analysis, Quality Assurance

18. Epic Size Certainty Size Certainty Size Certainty
View balances XS 80% M 90% S 95%
Integrate with
core banking
application
M 90% L 80% M 90%
Transfer funds M 50% S 70% S 90%
Setup bill
payer
L 70% L 50% XL 80%
Development BA QA

19. Team agrees on how many days to use for
each size
This may vary by project or estimating
team
Size # of Days
XSmall 1
Small 5
Medium 10
Large 30
XLarge 40

20. Team agrees on what # days to use for
each size

21. 1. Identify epics
2. Determine size
3. Determine certainty
4. Associate cost

22. • Determine rate per area of concern (dev, BA, QA, PM)
• Or use blended rate
• Include hourly rate plus benefits ($50 for our example)
Epic Total
Estimated
Days
Total
Estimated
Days with
Buffer
Cost
without
Buffer
Cost with
Buffer
View balances 16 21 $32,000 $42,000
Integrate with
core banking
application
50 71 $100,000 $142,000
Transfer Funds 20 46.5 $40,000 $94,000
Setup Bill Payer 100 210 $200,000 $420,000
TOTAL 186 348.5 $376,000 $697,000

23.  Have a representative from each area involved in
estimating; dev, BA, QA, PM
 Too much time spent estimating = diminishing
return.
 Look at XLs or 50% certainty’s closer.
 Validate against gut feel.
 Document assumptions made during estimating.
 Re-estimate if project is approved; update time and
$ estimates.
 Over time, use historical real data to help
standardize estimates, such as reports or
integrations.

24. Twitter: TamiLFlowers
LinkedIn
Thanks!