SlideShare a Scribd company logo
From Incremental to Exponential Mindset
The Evolution of an
Exponentially Growing Company
Kobi Salinas
Consumer Product Manager
Speeding up A/B Testing With the
Bayesian Approach
Omri Walton
Data Product Manager
How to Test Automation on
>$200M Campaigns
Matar Bar-Sheshet
Data Product Manager
Sooo...
Kobi Salinas, Consumer Product Manager
Who Am I?
The First Comparison Table
One chart
3 employees
PPC traffic
10 Brands
10 Years Later...
10 Years Later in Numbers
100K+
Monthly Purchase
Decisions Generated
10M+
Monthly
Unique Visitors
500+
Top Tier
Brands
300+
Sites
10
Years of
Expertise
400+
Talented
Employees
TOP 10
Mortgage Loans
THE ANATOMY OF A
TOP 10
SHORTLIST
What Kind of Traffic do We Deliver?
SEO/Direct
What Is AB Testing?
Innocent Drinks Story, 1998
Started at a music festival in London
Selling their shakes
Placing 2 bins...
Innocent Drinks Story, 1998
Started at a music festival in London
Selling their shakes
Placing 2 bins...
What’s the Difference?
38% Increase in sales (!)
What’s the Difference?
How Do We Do It at NI?
Multi-Sites Testing
Bigger impact as
more users exposed
to the test
Faster decision Enhance our
Top10.com brand -
one look and feel
Why?
Example:
Chocolate goes great with wine, selling chocolate for people who love wine will increase
total revenues by 5% after 2 weeks
Every Test Starts with a Hypothesis
Hypothesis = [fact/the change] + [who you expect it to impact] + [how much] + [after how long]
How Do We Create Hypotheses?
Intuition
Competitors
Research
Data
How Do We Create Hypotheses?
● Research - the jam experience - when less choice
means more sales
● If customers ask for more choice, don’t listen
Hypothesis - Research Inspiration
Increase our sales by 6.5%
Facts that leads us to a clear and clean design :
● Search more on mobile
● Buy less
● Bounce fast (~50% Bounce)
● Less time on mobile
Hypothesis - Research & Data Inspiration
Hypothesis - Research & Data Inspiration
A - Controlled B - Tested
Let’s Play a Crowd Sourcing Game
The Power of Trust
Increase our sales in 10%
A - Controlled B - Tested
A - Controlled B - Tested
The Power of Reviews
Let’s Play a Crowd Sourcing Game
Increase our sales in 3%
A - Controlled B - Tested
Use the KW - implement it on the H1, on the card, change images by food type, etc. personalization is everything
Increase our sales in 5%
How We Use Our Knowledge to Optimize Sites
A - Controlled
B - Tested
Significance level
Time
Interactions
Data Team! We Have a Problem!
● Everything starts with a right date (or dating site)
● Multi-sites optimization as engine for growth
● Every AB test starts with hypothesis
● We need to move fast, run multi-tests, and get significant
● Data Data Data
Recap
Omri Walton, Data Product Manager
Who Am I?
2 Statistical Approaches
vs.
Cookies
The Cookie Box Challenge (Classical vs. Bayesian)
A B
Which box has more pistachio cookies?
-100 cookies each
-Different kinds
-All look the same
The Cookie Box Challenge
A BClassical
Define Sample Size
Eat 20 cookies
from each box
Start Eat 40 Cookies Check Results
???
Not
Conclusive?
Great!
Conclusive
?
The Cookie Box Challenge
A BBayesian
Define Priors
Are the
chances really
equal?
Start Eat a Cookie Check Results
Not
Conclusive?
Great!
Conclusive
?
50%50% 60%40%
Same Goes for A/B Testing
Classical Define Sample Size
“Time Estimation”
Start Wait Check Results
Great!
Conclusive
?
Don’t pick at
the results!
Bayesian
Define Priors
(Optional)
Start Check Results
Not
Conclusive?
Great!
Conclusive
?
We have
options!
No waiting
required
Not
Conclusive?
How Is It Working For Us?
Too long
1
Can’t stop in the middle
2
Inconclusive
3
No tool to deal with inconclusive
4
Time to significance by site:
Bayesian - Proof-of-Concept
Same Bottom Line
50% Less Time!
No Major Risk
Analyzed
~400 AB tests
on both methods
So what can we do
about inconclusive
tests?
Don’t Just Test - Segment!
Winning Chances:
Bayesian - Summary
Enabler for running x2 more A/B tests
Empowers you to deal with inconclusive tests
Enabler for real-time optimization
using Multi-arm-bandit
Thank You!
Matar Bar-Sheshet, Data Product Manager
Who Am I?
What Kind of Traffic do We Deliver?
SEO/Direct
Remember
This?
If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it.
Spending $200M+ on user acquisition from PPC
Optimizing campaigns for 300+ sites
In 40+ different domains
If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it AUTOMATE IT.
Spending $200M+ on user acquisition from PPC
Optimizing campaigns for 300+ sites
In 40+ different domains
What Automations Are We Even Talking About?
Keyword bidding
How much should we pay for each keyword?
Ads optimization
Can we think of a better ad copy? What should we do with old ads?
Keywords coverage
what other keywords should we include in our campaigns?
Why Automate?
Growth / Scale
Why not use out-of-the-box tools?
Why Automate?
Growth / Scale
Matching know-how
Unique use-cases
Why Automate?
So…
How do we test
PPC Automation?
We A/B Test! (But Differently!)
VariantB
Test
VariantA
Control
KEYWORD BID
Shoes 1$
Boots 2$
Sandals 5$
... ...
TEST BID
1.4$
1.8$
3.7$
...
VS
The Challenges of Testing (PPC)
Or, requirements for a testing method
▢
▢
▢
Alternatives to Testing PPC Automation
▢
▢
▢KEYWORD
CONTROL
GROUP
TEST
GROUP
Shoes
Boots
Sandals
High Heels
METHOD 1
SPLITTING TRAFFIC
Alternatives to Testing PPC Automation
OR
METHOD 2
SPLITTING KEYWORDS
KEYWORD
CONTROL
GROUP
TEST
GROUP
Shoes
Boots
Sandals
High Heels
METHOD 1
SPLITTING TRAFFIC
KEYWORD
Shoes
CONTROL
GROUPBoots
Sandals
TEST
GROUPHigh Heels
Alternatives to Testing PPC Automation
▢
▢
▢
METHOD 2
SPLITTING KEYWORDS
KEYWORD
Shoes
CONTROL
GROUPBoots
Sandals
TEST
GROUPHigh Heels
BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD
Method 3 - A/B Swap
SPLITTING AND SWAPPING variants
○ Split your keywords into two groups.
- Optimize your test group.
- Swap control/test groups.
○ Every day:
KEYWORD SUNDAY
Shoes
Boots
Sandals
High Heels
KEYWORD MONDAY
Shoes
Boots
Sandals
High Heels
KEYWORD TUESDAY
Shoes
Boots
Sandals
High Heels
So On...
Method 3 - A/B Swap
Not just splitting, but SWAPPING variants
AB SWAP CAN REDUCE OUR EXPERIMENTS
DURATION BY 50%-75%!
▢
▢
▢
▢
Group A: Group B:
Tuesday
And so on...
Group A: Group B:
Monday
Group A: Group B:
Sunday
Great hypotheses are awesome. Just make sure you can test them!
The testing platform is an enabler for automation.
A grand project requires an unusual solution.
Takeaways
THANK YOU!

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How to do A/B in scale - Nature Intelligence style

  • 1.
  • 2. From Incremental to Exponential Mindset
  • 3. The Evolution of an Exponentially Growing Company Kobi Salinas Consumer Product Manager Speeding up A/B Testing With the Bayesian Approach Omri Walton Data Product Manager How to Test Automation on >$200M Campaigns Matar Bar-Sheshet Data Product Manager
  • 5. Kobi Salinas, Consumer Product Manager Who Am I?
  • 6. The First Comparison Table One chart 3 employees PPC traffic 10 Brands
  • 8. 10 Years Later in Numbers 100K+ Monthly Purchase Decisions Generated 10M+ Monthly Unique Visitors 500+ Top Tier Brands 300+ Sites 10 Years of Expertise 400+ Talented Employees
  • 10. THE ANATOMY OF A TOP 10 SHORTLIST
  • 11. What Kind of Traffic do We Deliver? SEO/Direct
  • 12. What Is AB Testing?
  • 13. Innocent Drinks Story, 1998 Started at a music festival in London Selling their shakes Placing 2 bins...
  • 14. Innocent Drinks Story, 1998 Started at a music festival in London Selling their shakes Placing 2 bins...
  • 16. 38% Increase in sales (!) What’s the Difference?
  • 17. How Do We Do It at NI?
  • 18. Multi-Sites Testing Bigger impact as more users exposed to the test Faster decision Enhance our Top10.com brand - one look and feel Why?
  • 19. Example: Chocolate goes great with wine, selling chocolate for people who love wine will increase total revenues by 5% after 2 weeks Every Test Starts with a Hypothesis Hypothesis = [fact/the change] + [who you expect it to impact] + [how much] + [after how long]
  • 20. How Do We Create Hypotheses?
  • 22. ● Research - the jam experience - when less choice means more sales ● If customers ask for more choice, don’t listen Hypothesis - Research Inspiration Increase our sales by 6.5%
  • 23. Facts that leads us to a clear and clean design : ● Search more on mobile ● Buy less ● Bounce fast (~50% Bounce) ● Less time on mobile Hypothesis - Research & Data Inspiration
  • 24. Hypothesis - Research & Data Inspiration
  • 25. A - Controlled B - Tested Let’s Play a Crowd Sourcing Game
  • 26. The Power of Trust Increase our sales in 10% A - Controlled B - Tested
  • 27. A - Controlled B - Tested The Power of Reviews
  • 28. Let’s Play a Crowd Sourcing Game Increase our sales in 3% A - Controlled B - Tested
  • 29. Use the KW - implement it on the H1, on the card, change images by food type, etc. personalization is everything Increase our sales in 5% How We Use Our Knowledge to Optimize Sites
  • 30. A - Controlled B - Tested
  • 32. ● Everything starts with a right date (or dating site) ● Multi-sites optimization as engine for growth ● Every AB test starts with hypothesis ● We need to move fast, run multi-tests, and get significant ● Data Data Data Recap
  • 33. Omri Walton, Data Product Manager Who Am I?
  • 36. The Cookie Box Challenge (Classical vs. Bayesian) A B Which box has more pistachio cookies? -100 cookies each -Different kinds -All look the same
  • 37. The Cookie Box Challenge A BClassical Define Sample Size Eat 20 cookies from each box Start Eat 40 Cookies Check Results ??? Not Conclusive? Great! Conclusive ?
  • 38. The Cookie Box Challenge A BBayesian Define Priors Are the chances really equal? Start Eat a Cookie Check Results Not Conclusive? Great! Conclusive ? 50%50% 60%40%
  • 39. Same Goes for A/B Testing Classical Define Sample Size “Time Estimation” Start Wait Check Results Great! Conclusive ? Don’t pick at the results! Bayesian Define Priors (Optional) Start Check Results Not Conclusive? Great! Conclusive ? We have options! No waiting required Not Conclusive?
  • 40. How Is It Working For Us? Too long 1 Can’t stop in the middle 2 Inconclusive 3 No tool to deal with inconclusive 4 Time to significance by site:
  • 41. Bayesian - Proof-of-Concept Same Bottom Line 50% Less Time! No Major Risk Analyzed ~400 AB tests on both methods
  • 42. So what can we do about inconclusive tests?
  • 43. Don’t Just Test - Segment!
  • 45. Bayesian - Summary Enabler for running x2 more A/B tests Empowers you to deal with inconclusive tests Enabler for real-time optimization using Multi-arm-bandit
  • 47. Matar Bar-Sheshet, Data Product Manager Who Am I?
  • 48. What Kind of Traffic do We Deliver? SEO/Direct Remember This?
  • 49. If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it. Spending $200M+ on user acquisition from PPC Optimizing campaigns for 300+ sites In 40+ different domains
  • 50. If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it AUTOMATE IT. Spending $200M+ on user acquisition from PPC Optimizing campaigns for 300+ sites In 40+ different domains
  • 51. What Automations Are We Even Talking About? Keyword bidding How much should we pay for each keyword? Ads optimization Can we think of a better ad copy? What should we do with old ads? Keywords coverage what other keywords should we include in our campaigns?
  • 53. Growth / Scale Why not use out-of-the-box tools? Why Automate?
  • 54. Growth / Scale Matching know-how Unique use-cases Why Automate?
  • 55. So… How do we test PPC Automation?
  • 56. We A/B Test! (But Differently!) VariantB Test VariantA Control KEYWORD BID Shoes 1$ Boots 2$ Sandals 5$ ... ... TEST BID 1.4$ 1.8$ 3.7$ ... VS
  • 57. The Challenges of Testing (PPC) Or, requirements for a testing method ▢ ▢ ▢
  • 58. Alternatives to Testing PPC Automation ▢ ▢ ▢KEYWORD CONTROL GROUP TEST GROUP Shoes Boots Sandals High Heels METHOD 1 SPLITTING TRAFFIC
  • 59. Alternatives to Testing PPC Automation OR METHOD 2 SPLITTING KEYWORDS KEYWORD CONTROL GROUP TEST GROUP Shoes Boots Sandals High Heels METHOD 1 SPLITTING TRAFFIC KEYWORD Shoes CONTROL GROUPBoots Sandals TEST GROUPHigh Heels
  • 60. Alternatives to Testing PPC Automation ▢ ▢ ▢ METHOD 2 SPLITTING KEYWORDS KEYWORD Shoes CONTROL GROUPBoots Sandals TEST GROUPHigh Heels
  • 61. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD
  • 62. Method 3 - A/B Swap SPLITTING AND SWAPPING variants ○ Split your keywords into two groups. - Optimize your test group. - Swap control/test groups. ○ Every day: KEYWORD SUNDAY Shoes Boots Sandals High Heels KEYWORD MONDAY Shoes Boots Sandals High Heels KEYWORD TUESDAY Shoes Boots Sandals High Heels So On...
  • 63. Method 3 - A/B Swap Not just splitting, but SWAPPING variants AB SWAP CAN REDUCE OUR EXPERIMENTS DURATION BY 50%-75%! ▢ ▢ ▢ ▢ Group A: Group B: Tuesday And so on... Group A: Group B: Monday Group A: Group B: Sunday
  • 64. Great hypotheses are awesome. Just make sure you can test them! The testing platform is an enabler for automation. A grand project requires an unusual solution. Takeaways