3. 3
ContentsContents
Overview
• Study Scope
• Team ‐ XArc Spaceport Consultants (XSC)
Process Discussion Topics
• Market Segment Assessment
• Competitive Assessment
• User Needs Assessment
• Demand Forecast Assessment ‐ Scenarios
• Business Case ‐ Pro Forma
• Spaceport Operational Model
• Infrastructure Projections for Economic Development
Spaceport Design Concept
Overview
Final Report Nov 15, 2013
Texas Society of Architects 75th Annual Convention
11/08/2014
NOTE: All market forecast projections presented
herein relied on latest available 2013 data sets, and
are overcome by events related to the Virgin
Galactic explosion of the WhiteKnight2 spacecraft
on 10/31/2014
4. 4
Study Scope
STUDY COMPONENT INFORMS MASTER PLAN with:
Market Assessment
Analysis of launch market segments that could utilize EFD
• Spacecraft technology type
– Operational impacts to existing
infrastructure
Competitive Assessment
Identifies existing or potential competing spaceports and contrast
their facilities and incentive policies with EFD
• Infrastructure services
– Planned enhancements
User Needs Assessment
Identifies operational & facility needs of operators and related
stakeholders
• Facility requirements
– New or re‐purposed facilities needed
Demand Forecast Assessment
Forecasts addressable launch demand at EFD (3 cases)
• Phased development
– Implementation planning
Financial Reasonableness
Provides financial projections that quantify the potential business
viability of the commercial entities utilizing EFD
• Planning viability
– Growth scenarios
Economic Impact Assessment
Assess impact of spaceport activity on the local economy
• Commercial activities
– Ties revenue to growth scenarios
Overview
Relevance to Ellington Airport (EFD) Master Plan
Texas Society of Architects 75th Annual Convention
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8. 8
Approach Market Assessment
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Examine markets based on orbit
• Suborbital
• Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
• Medium Earth Orbit (MEO)
• Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO)
• Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO)
• Analysis based on published forecasts, internal
Futron data, other industry perspectives
•Provides qualitative assessment of the size of various
launch markets, particularly with respect to each other
In practice, no vehicles are
removed from consideration
by this criterion
Identify vehicles that can operate from Ellington given:
• Restrictions on spaceport operations (i.e., no vertical launches)
• Policy restrictions that make it unlikely vehicles developed in other nations by their
governments could operate from a U.S. spaceport
9. 9
Potential Vehicles
Suborbital: several suborbital winged vehicles
under development
• Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo
• XCOR Aerospace Lynx
• RocketCrafters
Orbital: one air‐launch system operating today
and several under development, limited primarily
to small satellites
• Orbital Sciences Corporation Pegasus (operational)
• Virgin Galactic LauncherOne
• XCOR Aerospace Lynx Mark III
• Generation Orbit GO Launcher 2
• DARPA ALASA program (Boeing, Lockheed Martin,
Virgin Galactic)
• Stratolaunch Systems Stratolauncher
NOTE: Specific vehicles may have runway, airspace, or
other operational requirements that require changes
to EFD, such as extended runways, to support space
launch operations.
Market Assessment
Orbital Suborbital
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19. 19
Competition Ranking Matrix
Spaceport Weight
Houston
Spaceport
Cecil Field
Front Range
Airport
Kalaeloa
Spaceport
Midland
Airport
Mojave Air &
Space Port
Oklahoma
Spaceport
Shuttle Landing
Facility
Spaceport
America
Operational? 1 No No No No No Yes No No Yes
FAA Licensed? 1 No Yes No No No Yes Yes No Yes
State Space Industry
Authority?
0.5 No Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes Yes
Anchor Client? 1 No Yes Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes
Space Industry
Presence?
1 Yes No Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes
Federal Funding? 0.5 No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes
State/Local Funding? 1 No No No Yes Yes No No No Yes
State/Local Incentives? 1 Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No Yes Yes
Proximity to
International Airport
1 Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No
Orbital Flight
Eligibility?
1 Yes Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Runway Extension
Feasibility?
0.5
Existing
Space
Un‐needed
Existing
space
No space Little space
Existing
space
Un‐needed Un‐needed Un‐needed
Runway Composition? 0.5 Concrete
Concrete/
Asphalt
Asphalt Asphalt Asphalt
Concrete/
Asphalt
Concrete Concrete Concrete
Federal Incentives? 0 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Competitive Assessment
Note: At the time of the study, Midland Spaceport had not yet received its FAA spaceport license
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24. 24
Launch Service Operators
Developed Findings
• Related Stakeholders
• Orbital Research Support
• Payload Processing Support
• EFD Facilities Analysis/Gap
Analysis
• Key Site Selection Criteria
• Workforce Profile
• Range Safety
Mapping the benchmarked suppliers’ operation plans
reveals that the following system types may eventually
be licensed to operate out of Houston Spaceport:
• Large carrier aircraft (not manufactured at Ellington) ‐ Strato and
Virgin after runway extension; Orbital today; Generation Orbit in
10 years
• Medium size boosters with hybrid propulsion systems ‐
Generation Orbit
• Small boosters with solid propulsion systems ‐ Orbital
• Space tourism spacecraft with hybrid propulsion systems ‐ Virgin
Mapping the benchmarked suppliers’ operation plans
reveals that the following system types may eventually
be licensed to operate out of Houston Spaceport:
• Large carrier aircraft (not manufactured at Ellington) ‐ Strato and
Virgin after runway extension; Orbital today; Generation Orbit in
10 years
• Medium size boosters with hybrid propulsion systems ‐
Generation Orbit
• Small boosters with solid propulsion systems ‐ Orbital
• Space tourism spacecraft with hybrid propulsion systems ‐ Virgin
Stratolaunch
Systems Virgin Galactic
Orbital
Sciences XCOR
Generation
Orbit
Rocket
CraftersThe Spaceship Company (Scaled Composites)
Benchmarked Potential Types of Launch Service Operators:
User Needs Assessment
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25. 25
Findings
Developers vs. Operators:
• No one is only an operator today
• Vertical integration ‐ many valid and invalid reasons
• Economic reality ‐ market does not support buying from manufacturer then operating for
profit
• Must attract developers early in their cycle before another site captures them with better
incentives
• Developer/Operator has longer business life and more economic impact if self‐funding
Key Site Selection Criteria:
• Cash incentives
• Freedom from interference by spaceport, local, and state government
Workforce Profile – Key Capabilities:
• Composite design and development specialists
• Advanced plastics design and development specialists
• Rocket propulsion design and testing specialists
Range Safety Systems:
• Not necessary to develop a system
• Use Wallops portable system
User Needs Assessment
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26. 26
Future Capabilities Needed
Protect Footprint for Future Capabilities
• Runway expansion for large systems: Runways 12,500 feet long, 200 feet wide, and
capable of carrying 1.3 million pounds
• Liquid oxygen storage area
• Liquid oxygen transfer to spacecraft (mounted on carrier) area
• Nitrous Oxide storage area
• Nitrous Oxide transfer to spacecraft (mounted on carrier) area
• Clear zone of 1250 foot around spacecraft/booster fueling area and travel paths (or
ability to operationally clear area)
• Space tourist support facility of 30,000 sq. ft.
• Operations and mission control 10,000 sq. ft. facility
• Hangar for spacecraft processing and testing 10,000 sqft
• Small booster assembly and payload integration facility 30,000 sqft
• Hangar to support an aircraft 285 ft. L x 385 ft. W x 50 ft. H
• Life sciences research laboratory of 120,000 square feet capable of performing BSL‐2
(Biological safety level – 2) activity
• Payload processing facility of 10,000 sq. ft. capable of hazardous spacecraft fueling
(1250 foot clearance)
• Rail service (cargo)
User Needs Assessment
Texas Society of Architects 75th Annual Convention
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27. Houston Spaceport
Demand Forecast
NOTE: All market forecast projections
presented herein relied on latest
available 2013 data sets, and are
overcome by events related to the Virgin
Galactic explosion of the WhiteKnight2
spacecraft on 10/31/2014
30. 30
Overall Suborbital Reusable
Vehicles (SRV) Forecast Demand Forecast Assessment
Overall forecast based on
existing reports (FAA/Tauri
suborbital forecast;
SpaceWorks smallsat
forecast; Futron analyses)
For suborbital launches,
assumed an average of 3.5
seats per launch (based on
range of available seats of
1‐6 per flight on proposed
vehicles)
Per‐launch revenues for
suborbital and orbital
flights gradually decline
over the forecast period as
new entrants and
competition drive down
prices.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Launches
$‐
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Revenue (millions)
Low Revenue
Baseline Revenue
High Revenue
Low Launches
Baseline Launches
High Launches
Texas Society of Architects 75th Annual Convention
11/08/2014
NOTE: All market forecast projections presented herein relied are latest available 2013 data
sets, and are overcome by events related to the Virgin Galactic explosion of the
WhiteKnight2 spacecraft on 10/31/2014
33. Ellington Spaceport
Business Case
NOTE: All market forecast projections
presented herein relied on latest
available 2013 data sets, and are
overcome by events related to the Virgin
Galactic explosion of the WhiteKnight2
spacecraft on 10/31/2014
35. Alternative Operating Scenarios
• A design, development and operational firm would take, depending on
the specifics of the systems design that could fly out of EFD and based on
prior analyses, 5 to 7 years to bring a system to full scale test
– It appears that the current market conditions make an estimate for the
initiation of such an enterprise at least several years in the future
• It is probable that the start of such an enterprise would be a few years after other
first‐to‐market operators prove the safety and efficiency of the systems and the
size of the market
– If first‐to‐market operators commence operational flights in 2015, the start of
a new development system based at EFD would not start before 2017 or
2018. An additional 5 to 7 years of development and test would mean an
initial operational capability in 2022 to 2025 – well downstream of a time
frame of financial significance to current decisions
35
… for Systems Operating Out of EFD Spaceport
Business Case Assessment
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Possible Activity Timelines Business Case Assessment
LOW ESTIMATE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
RESEARCH & SUPPORT BUSINESS PARK
PREPARATION FOR 1ST VISITING FLIGHT
VISITING FLIGHTS
EFD BASED DEVELOPER
PREPARATION FOR 1ST VISITING FLIGHT WITH EFD BASED OPS
VISITING FLIGHTS WITH EFD BASE OPERATIONS
EFD BASED DEVELOPER INITIAL OPERATIONS
5 YEARS DEVELOPMENT
7 YEARS DEVELOPMENT
HIGH ESTIMATE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PREPARATION FOR 1ST VISITING FLIGHT
VISITING FLIGHTS
EFD BASED DEVELOPER
PREPARATION FOR 1ST VISITING FLIGHT WITH EFD BASED OPS
VISITING FLIGHTS WITH EFD BASE OPERATIONS
EFD BASED DEVELOPER INITIAL OPERATIONS
5 YEARS DEVELOPMENT
7 YEARS DEVELOPMENT
Infrastructure Operations EFD Spacecraft Developer
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46. Mission Statement Spaceport Operations Model
Branding the spaceport as a cluster for aerospace
technology innovation to attract talented
researchers and entrepreneurs will require
pioneering models of operation that a new youth
generation of scientist and engineers can relate
to. Their philosophy is one of openness, sharing,
collaboration and communities, i.e., open source
software/open source hardware.
“The mission of the Houston Spaceport is to create a focal point for aerospace
innovation with a cluster of companies that will lead the nation in the transition from
a government-driven to a commercially-driven space program by dramatically
easing the access to space for future exploration and utilization and ultimately
paving the way for rapid point-to-point travel between far flung points on the
earth.” – Mario Diaz, Director Houston Airport System
CHALLENGE
MISSION
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47. Level II:
Techshops at EFD & JSC
‐ rapid prototyping
Level III:
General Dynamics EDGE Model
joint EFD/JSC/Academia
initiative at EFD
‐ research & development
Level IV:
National Network for
Manufacturing Initiative
(NNMI) facility at EFD
‐ aerospace manufacturing
Innovation & Invention Environment
Level I:
Grassroots
Makerspace at EFD
‐ trial & error “hackerspace”
• Grassroots DIY Community Space
• Basic Equipment/Tools/Safety Training
• Limited Space, Equipment, Technology
• Membership Fees; Community or EFD Sponsored
• Larger Space, Better Equipment/Safety Training
• Equipment Owned/Maintained/Floor Plan (well laid out)
• Membership & Equip Use Fees (EFD only)
• Dedicated Staff Counselors; Training
• Owner Operated at EFD; NASA operated at JSC
• Industry/Academia/Government Collaboration
• Think Tank; Idea to Implementation (Rapid)
• Access to Test/Research Labs
• GD Sponsored; Membership Fees
• $1B Presidential Initiative to Resurrect Mfg.
• Legislation to establish 15 Institutes for
Manufacturing Innovation & R&D
• Competitive Selection Process
• Domestic Products to Market (Rapid)
• Training Pipeline
• City/State Sponsored
Spaceport Operations Model
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48. EFD Spaceport
Economic
Development Zone
JSC Commercial
Space Technology
Development Zone
JSC SPACE TECHNOLOGIES
INCUBATOR FOR COMMERCIAL
SPACE COMPANY START‐UPS:
• Pushes out JSC developed technology
• Provides Level II Techshop facility
open civil servants and contractors
• Companies ready for manufacturing
phase transitioned to operate at EFD
EFD COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE
TECHNOLOGIES R&D AND
MANUFACTURING:
• Provides Level I Makershop & Level II
aerospace Techshop facilities open to
general population innovators,
inventors, & entrepreneurs
• Provides Level III R&D Center for
NASA/Industry/Academia partnership
for specific technology areas
• Provides aerospace manufacturing
facilities and lease space
• Provides access to suborbital and
orbital space through spaceport
operations
Joint client services for entrepreneurship, marketing, investment, and education
Academic
partners
Industry
partners
Community
partners
EFD / JSC Integrated Commercial Space
Economic Development Plan Spaceport Operations Model
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55. Infrastructure Projections
Spaceport Facilities
Based on facility projection models, the Houston Spaceport
development plan build‐out includes 2.6 million square ft. of
building area comprised of hangars, terminal, office, R&D
space, shop space, manufacturing facilities, classrooms, labs,
museums, and conference and education centers.
FLIGHT OPERATIONS R&D TRAN. RETAIL MFG.
Passenger
Prep Area *
Spaceflight
Training
Center with
Equipment *
RLV
Processing
Facility – D
*
Level I
Makerspace
Metro
Station
Aerospace
Museum *
Level IV
NNMI
Manufact
uring
Terminal
Visitor
Center *
Payload
Processing/Cl
ean Room *
RLV
Processing
Facility - E
Level II
Techshop/M
akershop
Parking
Garage
Museum
Static
Display
Grounds
Producti
on
Facility 1
(runway
access)
Admin
Offices
Oxidizer
Storage *
Engine Test
Pad *
Level III
EDGE
Aerospace
R&D Center
Outdoor
Parking
Technology
Park Visitor
Center
Producti
on
Facility 2
(truck
access)
Passenger
Terminal *
Fuel Storage
Area *
Runway
Extension *
Office Areas
Road
Network
&
Utilities
Hotel &
Conference
Center
Medical
Facility
RLV
Processing
Facility - A
Spaceport
Tarmac &
Pavement
Conference
Areas
SE
Access
Road
Shops &
Food Court
Oxidizer &
Passenger
Loading
Area w/
Taxiway *
Combined
RLV &
Payload
Processing
Facility - B
Spaceport
Physical
Plant
Classrooms
Rail
Spurs
Parks /
buffer
zones
Mission
Control *
RLV
Processing
Facility - C
Multi-
purpose
Buildings
* = equivalent spaceport facility as identified in RS&H Technical Feasibility Study
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