HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF TRAFFIC CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES IN THESSALONIKI D.A. Sarigiannis1,2, P. Kontoroupis1,2, D. Chapizanis1, S.P. Karakitsios1,2 1 Τμήμα Χημικών Μηχανικών, Αριστοτέλειο Πανεπιστήμιο Θεσσαλονίκης 2 ΕΚΕΤΑ/ΙΔΕΠ Note: concentration maps are originally animated gifs. Slideshare does not properly present them.

1. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Health impact assessment of the traffic related
Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission policies- the
case study of Thessaloniki, Greece.
Dimosthenis A. Sarigiannis, Periklis Kontoroupis, Dimitirs Chapizanis, Spyros Karakitsios
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 1

2. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Basic sectors and policies considered
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 2
Scenario
Economic
Drive
Policies Considered
Gross
domestic
product
METRO
Construction
Usage of
Electric Cars
Technologies Penetration in Passenger Cars (**), (***)
2010 Baseline GDP a (*) NO NO
Gasoline passenger cars: 97.6%
Diesel cars: 1.4%
Hybrid Cars: 1%
2020 BAU GDP b (*) NO NO
Gasoline passenger cars: 91%
Diesel cars: 1%
Hybrid Cars: 8%
2020 CO2 GDP b (*) YES YES
Gasoline passenger cars: 68%
Diesel cars: 22%
Hybrid Cars: 8%
Electric Cars: 2%
(*): GDP analysis, Eurobank Research
(**): Data from SIBYL Model, http://www.emisia.com/sibyl/
(***): Expert Elicitation

3. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 3
1.85E+05
1.90E+05
1.95E+05
2.00E+05
2.05E+05
2.10E+05
2.15E+05
2.20E+05
2.25E+05
2.30E+05
2.35E+05
2.40E+05
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDPinmillioneuros
GDP projections
GDP projections
The
Economic
Drive
Source: Eurobank
Research, Economy &
Markets, August 2012

4. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Gasoline <1,4 l Gasoline 1,4 - 2,0 l Gasoline >2,0 l Diesel <2,0 l Diesel >2,0 l Hybrid Electric
2010 Baseline
2020 BAU
2020 CO2
* Vehicle Fleet in Greece
Vehicle Fleet* Change between scenarios

5. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 5
• 33% decrease: Major roads in proximity to
METRO line
(i.e: Monastiriou, Egnatia, Nea Egnatia, Delfwn)
• 44% decrease: Historic Center of Thessaloniki -
zone 1 : influences all roads (in yellow)
• 22% decrease: All roads adjacent to zone 1
(in black, dotted)
CO2 scenario: METRO
Assumption 1: Average daily distance covered:5.5km
Assumption 2: Vehicles Fleet composition remains the same

6. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 6
Models
Used
• VISUM
• SIBYL
• COPERT 4
• AirGIS
• OSPM
Human exposure

7. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 7
• Building Footprint and
Building Height
• Thessaloniki GIS Road
Geometry
• Hourly Variation in traffic flow
and velocity
• Hourly variation in traffic
composition per vehicle class
• Population Data per building
block
Urban Background Pollution
(Eptapyrgio Station)
Metereological and Pollution
Data
(Mikra, Kalamaria, AUTH, Panorama, Si
ndos, Kordelio, Neoxorouda Stations)
Data Used

8. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 8
Pollution in the city
NO2 (ug/m3) Benzene (ug/m3)PM10 (ug/m3)

9. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 9
Pollution in the GTA
NO2 (ug/m3) Benzene (ug/m3)PM10 (ug/m3)

10. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Metrics used:
• Model fit (R2)
• Fractional bias (FB)
• Geometric mean bias (MG)
• Normalized Mean Square
(NMSE)
• Geometric Variance (VG)
• Correlation coefficient (r)
• Fraction of predictions within a
factor of two observations (FAC2)
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 10
Model Validation
Station Name R2 FB MG NMSE VG FAC2 r
Martiou 71% -1.01 0.28 1.44 1.50 1.60 0.78
Egnatias 72% -0.91 0.34 1.05 1.50 1.60 0.72
Lagada 79% -0.87 0.35 0.93 1.60 1.60 0.89
Agias Sofias 77% -0.52 0.48 0.29 1.52 0.63 0.87
Kalamarias 68% -1.21 0.23 1.50 1.60 0.50 0.76
AUTH - - - - - - -
Panorama 65% -0.29 0.71 0.09 1.13 1.5 0.60
Station Name R2 FB MG NMSE VG FAC2 r
Martiou - - - - - - -
Egnatias - - - - - - -
Lagada - - - - - - -
Agias Sofias 77% -0.26 0.52 0.07 1.52 0.55 0.82
Kalamarias 88% -1.17 0.25 1.50 1.60 0.55 0.93
AUTH 76% 0.10 0.1 1.50 1.20 0.74 0.87
Panorama 71% -1.17 0.10 1.26 1.50 0.38 0.78
Validation metrics for PM10
Validation metrics for NO2

11. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 11
Concentration/response functions
Relative Risk
Background rate
of disease
Age group Reference
PM10 attributed
mortality (all
cause)
0.6%
(95% CI: 0.3%, 0.9%)
change per 10 μg/m3
PM10
8417 annual deaths /
881288 population
(EUROSTAT, 2011; WHO, 2008)
Adults aged 18
years and older
Hurley F et al. 2005; IOM 2011
NO2 attributed
mortality (all
cause)
0.6%
(95% CI: 0.4%, 0.8%)
change per 10 μg/m3
NO2
8417 annual deaths /
881288 population
(EUROSTAT, 2011; WHO, 2008)
Adults aged 18
years and older
Forastiere et al. 2011; WHO 2005
Inhalation unit risk
(IUR)
Benzene
induced
leukemia
4.5·10-6
(2.2·10-6 to 7.8·10-6)
All Crump, 1992, 1994

12. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 12
Annual number of deaths attributed to PM10

13. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 13
Annual number of deaths attributed to NO2

14. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 14
Annual number of deaths attributed to Benzene
Deaths

15. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 15
Municipality
PM10 NO2 Benzene
2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02
Thessalonikis 500.9 508.0 469.0 626.3 629.9 555.5 10.4 10.6 7.7
Sikeon 40.9 41.2 39.6 64.5 64.9 61.1 1.0 1.1 0.9
Agiou Pavlou 8.8 8.8 8.5 12.9 12.9 12.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Eykarpias 7.1 6.9 7.0 9.1 9.1 6.9 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ambelokipon 51.1 52.1 50.6 68.4 69.0 61.6 1.1 1.1 0.9
Kalamarias 116.2 117.2 114.5 151.8 152.8 138.1 2.5 2.5 1.9
Annual number of deaths attributed to PM10 and NO2
and leukemia lifetime expected cases due to Benzene
Health Impact in the city

16. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 16
Municipality
PM10 NO2 Benzene
2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02
Thernis 10.8 10.8 10.7 14.9 15.0 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.2
Thermaikou 12.9 13.0 12.8 19.4 19.6 18.7 0.3 0.3 0.3
Stavroupolis 53.0 53.9 52.5 68.8 69.3 52.5 1.1 1.1 0.8
Pylaias 26.4 26.7 26.2 34.2 34.5 27.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Exedorou 23.5 24.4 23.3 32.9 33.1 25.1 0.5 0.5 0.4
Evosmou 56.7 57.7 56.2 83.4 84.0 64.4 1.4 1.4 1.0
Xortiath 4.7 4.8 4.7 7.0 7.0 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Mikras 3.4 3.4 3.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Mixaniwnas 6.2 6.3 6.2 9.6 9.7 9.4 0.2 0.2 0.1
Menemenis 19.1 19.6 18.9 24.4 24.6 18.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
Panoramatos 14.6 14.7 14.5 20.6 20.8 16.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
Oraikoastrou 6.5 6.5 6.4 8.6 8.6 6.9 0.6 0.6 0.6
Neapoleos 36.1 36.0 35.6 50.8 51.0 45.9 0.8 0.9 0.6
Polixnis 32.6 32.8 32.3 46.5 46.8 36.4 0.8 0.8 0.5
Peuka 6.9 7.2 6.9 10.1 10.2 7.9 0.2 0.2 0.1
Annual number of deaths attributed to PM10 and NO2
and leukemia lifetime expected cases due to Benzene
Health Impact in the GTA

17. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Results
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 17
• In the 2020-CO2 scenario, the presence of the metro will reduce the PM10
pollution in the city centre.
• The penetration of diesel fuelled vehicles and hybrids will reduce the NO2 and
the benzene concentrations as compared to the 2020-BAU scenario.
• The introduction of electric vehicles has an insignificant effect due to their low
projected numbers.
• The reduction in the attributed annual number of deaths due to PM10 is
estimated at 8% for the municipality of Thessaloniki.
• The highest reduction in deaths attributed to NO2 are computed in the
municipalities of Eykarpia, Stavroupoli, Menemeni, Evosmou, Exedorou, Peykon
and Panoramatos (~25% each).
• For the lifetime expected cases due to benzene, the highest reductions are in
municipalities of Peuka, Panoramatos, Menemenis and Stavroupolis
(35%, 34%, 34% and 33% respectively).

18. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Conclusions
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 18
• Climate change policies for the city of Thessaloniki are investigated via an
integrated health impact assessment.
• For the scenarios, the localized effect of the city’s metro on traffic flow is added
at posteriori; changes in traffic composition (diesel, hybrid and electric
passenger cars) are implemented to the entire road network after traffic
simulation.
• Exposure assessment to PM10, NO2 and benzene is estimated via
epidemiological relationships relating pollutant concentration to health impact.
• Introduction of an underground rail system does have noticeable benefits on
near-road public health burden.
• Implementation of climate change policies under financial stress may have
unexpected negative effects on public health burden.
• Dispersion from roads and motorways across the GTA are currently modelled
using the CALPUFF model.

19. Environmental
Engineering
Laboratory
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering
Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki
Thank you
Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 19
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,
Department of Chemical Engineering
School of Engineering,
Building D, University Campus,
Thessaloniki,GR-54124, Greece
Environmental Engineering Laboratory
Director: Dimosthenis Sarigiannis,
Assoc. Professor
Phone: +30 2310 994562
Email: denis@eng.auth.gr
Website: www.enve-lab.eu