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LEARNING	
  HOW	
  HUMANS	
  
AND	
  NON-­‐HUMANS	
  
INTERACT	
  WITH	
  DIGITAL	
  ADS	
  
H2O	
  World,	
  November	
  10,	
  2015	
  
Sergei	
  Izrailev	
  
SVP,	
  Data	
  Science	
  
sergei@integralads.com	
  
1	
  
•  About	
  Integral	
  Ad	
  Science	
  
-  What	
  we	
  do	
  
-  About	
  our	
  data	
  
-  Tech	
  stack	
  
•  Non-­‐Humans:	
  Ad	
  Fraud	
  
-  Overview	
  
-  DetecKon	
  and	
  prevenKon	
  
•  Human	
  InteracKon	
  
-  Did	
  anyone	
  see	
  the	
  ad?	
  
-  What	
  metrics	
  are	
  important?	
  
-  How	
  can	
  we	
  help	
  the	
  brand’s	
  message	
  to	
  be	
  heard?	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
AGENDA	
  
2	
  
DIGITAL	
  ADVERTISING	
  
MARKETING
MESSAGE
“Right	
  Offer”	
  
1
AUDIENCE
TARGETING
“Right	
  Person”	
  
2
MEDIA
PLACEMENT
“Right	
  Place”	
  3
CAUSAL IMPACT & USER ENGAGEMENT
“ROI”	
  
•  Brand	
  Safety	
  
-  The	
  brand	
  is	
  protected	
  
•  Fraud	
  DetecKon	
  
-  You	
  only	
  pay	
  for	
  ads	
  delivered	
  to	
  humans	
  
•  Geo	
  VerificaKon	
  
-  The	
  ads	
  are	
  delivered	
  in	
  the	
  right	
  market	
  /	
  region	
  
•  Viewability	
  
-  A	
  person	
  actually	
  has	
  a	
  chance	
  to	
  see	
  the	
  ad	
  and	
  has	
  
the	
  opportunity	
  to	
  engage	
  
WE	
  HELP	
  BRANDS	
  ENSURE	
  THEIR	
  STORIES	
  ARE	
  HEARD	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  3	
  H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
ESTABLISH	
  A	
  BASELINE	
  –	
  AND	
  GO	
  BEYOND	
  
ELIMINATE	
  ADS	
  THAT	
  HAVE	
  NO	
  CHANCE	
  OF	
  DELIVERING	
  A	
  MESSAGE	
  
4	
  
•  ReporKng	
  
-  What	
  happened	
  
	
  
•  Blocking	
  the	
  ad	
  from	
  showing	
  in	
  bad	
  places	
  
-  Before	
  it’s	
  too	
  late	
  
•  TargeKng	
  good	
  environments	
  
-  Before	
  you	
  buy	
  
•  CreaKng	
  and	
  packaging	
  good	
  environments	
  
-  Before	
  you	
  sell	
  	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
HOW	
  THE	
  DATA	
  IS	
  USED	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  5	
  
DATA	
  COLLECTION	
  AND	
  PROCESSING	
  STACK	
  
NON-­‐HUMANS:	
  
AD	
  FRAUD	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  7	
  
AD	
  FRAUD	
  
NEARLY	
  ALL	
  AD	
  FRAUD	
  IS	
  CAUSED	
  BY	
  BOT	
  ACTIVITY	
  
Ad	
  Stacking	
  
Placing	
  mulKple	
  ads	
  on	
  
top	
  of	
  one	
  other	
  in	
  a	
  
single	
  ad	
  placement,	
  with	
  
only	
  the	
  top	
  ad	
  in	
  view	
  
Illegal	
  Bots	
  
Compromised	
  computers	
  with	
  breached	
  security	
  defenses	
  
conceded	
  to	
  a	
  third	
  party	
  
Pixel	
  Stuffing	
  
Stuffing	
  an	
  enKre	
  ad-­‐
supported	
  site	
  into	
  a	
  1x1	
  
pixel	
  
AD	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  8	
  
FRAUD	
  DETECTION	
  
facebook
cnn
ebay
nothingtoseehere.com
thisisnotabotnet.com
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  9	
  
FRAUD	
  DETECTION	
  
facebook
cnn
ebay
nothingtoseehere.com
thisisnotabotnet.com
10	
  
•  Offline	
  data	
  processing	
  (Hadoop)	
  
-  Batch	
  models:	
  flag	
  machines	
  and	
  sites	
  
•  Streaming	
  data	
  processing	
  (Storm	
  /	
  Kaea)	
  
-  Near	
  real-­‐Kme	
  online	
  models:	
  flag	
  machines	
  
•  In-­‐browser	
  measurement	
  
-  Real-­‐Kme	
  rules	
  and	
  models:	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  flag	
  impressions	
  
	
  Combine	
  all	
  signals	
  in	
  real	
  Kme	
  to	
  flag	
  
fraudulent	
  impressions	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
FRAUD	
  DETECTION	
  COMBINATION	
  
HUMAN	
  
INTERACTION	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
12	
  
SOME	
  METRICS	
  MAY	
  BE	
  MISLEADING	
  
MOUSE	
  HOVER	
  RATE	
  
VIEWABILITY	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
13	
  H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
•  How	
  many	
  Kmes	
  the	
  driver	
  sees	
  the	
  billboard?	
  
•  How	
  ofen?	
  
•  Is	
  there	
  enough	
  Kme	
  to	
  read	
  it?	
  
IS	
  VIEWABILITY	
  ALL	
  THAT	
  MATTERS?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
14	
  H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
THE	
  IMPORTANCE	
  OF	
  THE	
  ENVIRONMENT	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
15	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
16	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
17	
  
HOW	
  CAN	
  ONE	
  TELL	
  IF	
  A	
  METRIC	
  MATTERS?	
  
RANDOMIZED	
  A/B	
  TESTING	
  IS	
  GREAT	
  
Campaign AdPSA
But sometimes…
TreatmentControl
NATURAL	
  EXPERIMENTS	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
18	
  H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
OBSERVATIONAL	
  CAUSAL	
  ESTIMATION	
  
versus
bit.ly/ias-­‐kdd15-­‐causal	
  
CAUSAL	
  LIFT	
  VS	
  NUMBER	
  AND	
  LENGTH	
  OF	
  EXPOSURE	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
19	
  H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
RESULTS	
  FOR	
  A	
  TELECOM	
  CAMPAIGN	
  
1 45 90
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
120756030155
N = 9 impressions
Causallift
Exposure time (sec)
Causallift
N impressions
1 5 10
Exposure = 15-30 secs
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
CAUSAL	
  LIFT	
  VS	
  NUMBER	
  AND	
  LENGTH	
  OF	
  EXPOSURE	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  	
  	
  
20	
  H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
RESULTS	
  FOR	
  A	
  TELECOM	
  CAMPAIGN	
  
21	
  
•  FighKng	
  ad	
  fraud	
  is	
  an	
  ongoing	
  challenge	
  
-  Faster	
  detecKon	
  helps	
  
•  We	
  are	
  able	
  to	
  tell	
  which	
  metrics	
  are	
  meaningful	
  
-  Causal	
  inference	
  is	
  criKcal	
  
-  Mouse	
  hover	
  rate	
  is	
  not	
  a	
  good	
  measure	
  of	
  engagement	
  
-  Viewability	
  is	
  important,	
  but	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  ulKmate	
  goal	
  or	
  
means	
  
-  Number	
  and	
  frequency	
  of	
  exposure	
  mahers	
  
-  Total	
  exposure	
  duraKon	
  mahers	
  
-  One	
  long	
  exposure	
  doesn’t	
  quite	
  reach	
  the	
  goal	
  
H20	
  World,	
  11/10/2015	
  
SUMMARY	
  
THANK	
  YOU!	
  
sergei@integralads.com	
  

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H2O World - Learning How Humans and Non-Humans Interact with Digital Ads

  • 1. LEARNING  HOW  HUMANS   AND  NON-­‐HUMANS   INTERACT  WITH  DIGITAL  ADS   H2O  World,  November  10,  2015   Sergei  Izrailev   SVP,  Data  Science   sergei@integralads.com  
  • 2. 1   •  About  Integral  Ad  Science   -  What  we  do   -  About  our  data   -  Tech  stack   •  Non-­‐Humans:  Ad  Fraud   -  Overview   -  DetecKon  and  prevenKon   •  Human  InteracKon   -  Did  anyone  see  the  ad?   -  What  metrics  are  important?   -  How  can  we  help  the  brand’s  message  to  be  heard?   H20  World,  11/10/2015   AGENDA  
  • 3. 2   DIGITAL  ADVERTISING   MARKETING MESSAGE “Right  Offer”   1 AUDIENCE TARGETING “Right  Person”   2 MEDIA PLACEMENT “Right  Place”  3 CAUSAL IMPACT & USER ENGAGEMENT “ROI”  
  • 4. •  Brand  Safety   -  The  brand  is  protected   •  Fraud  DetecKon   -  You  only  pay  for  ads  delivered  to  humans   •  Geo  VerificaKon   -  The  ads  are  delivered  in  the  right  market  /  region   •  Viewability   -  A  person  actually  has  a  chance  to  see  the  ad  and  has   the  opportunity  to  engage   WE  HELP  BRANDS  ENSURE  THEIR  STORIES  ARE  HEARD            3  H20  World,  11/10/2015   ESTABLISH  A  BASELINE  –  AND  GO  BEYOND   ELIMINATE  ADS  THAT  HAVE  NO  CHANCE  OF  DELIVERING  A  MESSAGE  
  • 5. 4   •  ReporKng   -  What  happened     •  Blocking  the  ad  from  showing  in  bad  places   -  Before  it’s  too  late   •  TargeKng  good  environments   -  Before  you  buy   •  CreaKng  and  packaging  good  environments   -  Before  you  sell     H20  World,  11/10/2015   HOW  THE  DATA  IS  USED  
  • 6. H20  World,  11/10/2015            5   DATA  COLLECTION  AND  PROCESSING  STACK  
  • 8. H20  World,  11/10/2015            7   AD  FRAUD   NEARLY  ALL  AD  FRAUD  IS  CAUSED  BY  BOT  ACTIVITY   Ad  Stacking   Placing  mulKple  ads  on   top  of  one  other  in  a   single  ad  placement,  with   only  the  top  ad  in  view   Illegal  Bots   Compromised  computers  with  breached  security  defenses   conceded  to  a  third  party   Pixel  Stuffing   Stuffing  an  enKre  ad-­‐ supported  site  into  a  1x1   pixel   AD  
  • 9. H20  World,  11/10/2015            8   FRAUD  DETECTION   facebook cnn ebay nothingtoseehere.com thisisnotabotnet.com
  • 10. H20  World,  11/10/2015            9   FRAUD  DETECTION   facebook cnn ebay nothingtoseehere.com thisisnotabotnet.com
  • 11. 10   •  Offline  data  processing  (Hadoop)   -  Batch  models:  flag  machines  and  sites   •  Streaming  data  processing  (Storm  /  Kaea)   -  Near  real-­‐Kme  online  models:  flag  machines   •  In-­‐browser  measurement   -  Real-­‐Kme  rules  and  models:          flag  impressions    Combine  all  signals  in  real  Kme  to  flag   fraudulent  impressions   H20  World,  11/10/2015   FRAUD  DETECTION  COMBINATION  
  • 13. H20  World,  11/10/2015             12   SOME  METRICS  MAY  BE  MISLEADING   MOUSE  HOVER  RATE  
  • 14. VIEWABILITY             13  H20  World,  11/10/2015  
  • 15. •  How  many  Kmes  the  driver  sees  the  billboard?   •  How  ofen?   •  Is  there  enough  Kme  to  read  it?   IS  VIEWABILITY  ALL  THAT  MATTERS?             14  H20  World,  11/10/2015   THE  IMPORTANCE  OF  THE  ENVIRONMENT  
  • 16. H20  World,  11/10/2015             15  
  • 17. H20  World,  11/10/2015             16  
  • 18. H20  World,  11/10/2015             17   HOW  CAN  ONE  TELL  IF  A  METRIC  MATTERS?   RANDOMIZED  A/B  TESTING  IS  GREAT   Campaign AdPSA But sometimes… TreatmentControl
  • 19. NATURAL  EXPERIMENTS             18  H20  World,  11/10/2015   OBSERVATIONAL  CAUSAL  ESTIMATION   versus bit.ly/ias-­‐kdd15-­‐causal  
  • 20. CAUSAL  LIFT  VS  NUMBER  AND  LENGTH  OF  EXPOSURE             19  H20  World,  11/10/2015   RESULTS  FOR  A  TELECOM  CAMPAIGN   1 45 90 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 120756030155 N = 9 impressions Causallift Exposure time (sec) Causallift N impressions 1 5 10 Exposure = 15-30 secs 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
  • 21. CAUSAL  LIFT  VS  NUMBER  AND  LENGTH  OF  EXPOSURE             20  H20  World,  11/10/2015   RESULTS  FOR  A  TELECOM  CAMPAIGN  
  • 22. 21   •  FighKng  ad  fraud  is  an  ongoing  challenge   -  Faster  detecKon  helps   •  We  are  able  to  tell  which  metrics  are  meaningful   -  Causal  inference  is  criKcal   -  Mouse  hover  rate  is  not  a  good  measure  of  engagement   -  Viewability  is  important,  but  is  not  the  ulKmate  goal  or   means   -  Number  and  frequency  of  exposure  mahers   -  Total  exposure  duraKon  mahers   -  One  long  exposure  doesn’t  quite  reach  the  goal   H20  World,  11/10/2015   SUMMARY