The document examines the impact of Myanmar's development on the probability of return migration. It studies how economic, political, and social changes in Myanmar relate to the likelihood that Myanmar migrants working in Thailand will return home. A survey of 433 Myanmar migrant workers finds that factors like more job opportunities, special economic zones, lower taxes, and foreign investment in Myanmar increase the chances of return, as do greater democracy, permitted labor organizations, and infrastructure improvements. The conclusion recommends return migration policies and skills recognition to help development in both Myanmar and Thailand.

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THE IMPACT OF THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MYANMAR ON THE PROBABILITY
OF RETURN MIGRATION
Mya Mya Thet
Master Student, International College of NIDA
Prof. Piriya Pholphirul
Supervisor, International College of NIDA

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Introduction
What is return migration?
People return to the home country after
working or staying in foreign country.
What is the development of Myanmar?
Changes in Myanmar due to economic,
political and social reform

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Research questions?
Are the development of Myanmar related to
the possibility of return migration?
Which development factors can attract
Myanmar migrants to return?

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Literature Review
 Barcevicius et.al. (2012) – economic, social and political factors in
the home country
 Grazhdani (2013) - the increased political and economic stability in
the home country and the increased in economic insecurity in the
host country
 Bassina (2012) - pull factors of the home country is more important
than push factors of the host country
 Chantavanich and Vungsiriphisal (2012) –political stability and
democratic freedom and economic opportunities in the home
country
 Myint (2013) - political reforms, policy changes and economic
openness as the pull factors of return migration
 IOM (2013) - actual return migration is concerned better income
and satisfied working conditions and duration of stay

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Conceptual Model:
Social
Development
Economic
Development
Political
Development
Return
migration
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Data
Primary data by distributing questionnaire to
Myanmar migrant workers working in Samut
Prakan, Min Buri, Bangkok and Samut
Sakhon, Thailand.
Data is collected between January 2014 and
March 2014.
A total number of respondents: 433 Myanmar
migrant workers

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Respondent Information
Male
73%
Female
27%
Gender

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Respondent Information
43.40% 42.70%
11.80%
2.10%
15-24 yr 25-33 yr 34-43 yr 44-53 yr
Age

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Respondent Information
2.80%
12%
41.80%
37.60%
5.80%
No Education Elementary Lower
Secondary
High and
Vocational
School
Bachelor
Degree
Educational Background

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Respondent Information
Agriculture
3%
Fishery
3% Mechanics
7%
Manufacturing
45%
Services
5%
Seller
5%
Construction
17%
Domestic
Worker
8%
Cleaner
2%
Other
5%
Occupation

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Respondent Information
78.10%
20%
1.60% 0.20%
6,000-10,000
Baht
10,001-15,000
Baht
15,001-20,000
Baht
Over 20,000 Baht
Salary

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Respondent Information
77.10%
15.90%
5.10%
2.10%
1-4 yr 5-8 yr 9-12 yr 12 yr above
Duration of Stay

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Econometrics Estimation and Results
Dependent variable: Return migration
Independent variable: Economic
development, Political development and
Social development
Model: Probit Model
Socioeconomic control variables such as
gender, age group, marital status, occupation
and education level.

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Results
 Gender has significant relationship with return. Male
have a higher return than female.
 The older age group is less likely to return.
 Low education level has a negative significant
relationship with return .
 Married respondents are more likely to return than
single respondents.
 The respondents working in construction, fishery and
agricultural sector as well as seller, cleaner and
domestic workers have a positive significant
relationship with return.

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Results on economic development
Return
migration
More employment
opportunities
Establish Special Economic
Zones
Reduce income tax
Better IT communication
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More foreign direct
investment
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Results on political development
Return
migration
Implement democracy
reform
Permit Labour Organization
Deregulation
Permit strike
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Eliminate sanctions
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17. + Results on social development
Return
migration
Improvement of health care
service
Improvement of education
Improvement of infrastructure
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Freedom of media
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Conclusion
 Thailand needs to set up recruitment plan to
keep the experienced migrant workers or to
substitute another foreign migrant workers.
 Myanmar also needs to lay down return
migration plan to attract its experienced workers
for the labor-intensive industries to rapidly
develop the country.
 Besides, Myanmar still needs skill recognition
system for their migrant workers to return and to
seek employment opportunities in Myanmar.

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